In the short term, the impending fallout from Brexit will make the presumptive Democratic nominee look good. She advocated for Britain remaining in the union; Trump advocated for leaving. The markets are going to tank today, and this vote will set off a tsunami of repercussions that could meaningfully damage the global economy. People’s 401(k)’s might take a shellacking, and interest rates may spike. Any long-term benefits from breaking away will not be apparent until after the general election....
But the results across the pond spotlight five forces that could allow him to score an upset: 1. RESENTMENT OF ELITES.... 2. XENOPHOBIA... 3. ISOLATIONISM... 4. FLAWED POLLING/The polls showed a neck-and-neck race, and surveys in the past few days showed movement in the direction of “Remain” after Cox’s murder. In the end, though, “Leave” prevailed by 4 points.... 5. COMPLACENCY/The Remain campaign was burdened by complacency. Millennials, who overwhelmingly wanted to remain in the E.U., did not turn out at the same rate as older voters, who wanted to leave...
June 24, 2016
"Britain’s stunning vote to leave the European Union suggests that we’ve been seriously underestimating Donald Trump’s ability to win the presidential election."
Says James Hohmann (in WaPo), who clearly wants Hillary to win:
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LOL
Labour was solidly Remain. The rank and file abandoned their leaders.
This sell off is stupid. Things will be better Monday. US is a safe haven.
Note that of all the European stock markets, the one that performed the best today (suffering only about a 2.5% drop) was --- the UK stock market.
No, it doesn't. Because, actually, the polls were showing an outcome very similar to this - aBrexit victory by a small margin. Only the bettting pools were the other way. Nigel farage thought they would lose. People thought Brexit was maybe slightly ahead, but then killing of the member of Parliament probably brought things around the other way.
Here te polls show Donald trump losing, and how you would project this if you didn't have polls also shows it, and there are polls on side issues (like negative opinion) that also show it.
The Brexit case was really a case of believing the prediction markets rather than the polls.
"Xenophobia" Even the lame correction to the underestimation is condescending. If Progs keep going like that, they may end up underestimating their underestimation.
All that is necessary for a sell-off is for a small minoroty of stock owners (stock managers really) to feel that something just changed and they should sell. Only a tiny perrcentage of the stock outstanding trades in a single day. The stock price has to drop until new buyers are encouraged to come in.
"In the short term, the impending fallout from Brexit will make the presumptive Democratic nominee look good"
That and an ocean of scotch would not be enough.
People who are anti amnesty or at the very least skeptical of the notion of the currently very open border situation we currently have in the US tend to be saddled with the epithet "xenophobe". I feel that's not only unfair but greatly oversimplifying the situation and acts as a way to shut down all discussion.
While I don't doubt that there are certainly some true xenophobes in the US who logically would also be in favor of any and all additional restrictions on immigration, I disagree with the notion that all, or even most, of the people who support tightening up our borders are true xenophobes. Look at it this way, would you let just anybody into your house? And if not, do you consider yourself a xenophobe because of that? Do you consider yourself inhospitable? Or could there perhaps be other reasons beyond just a general fear of strangers that may motivate you to be cautious? Is that possible?
He lists five points but leaves out the one he noted first: a potential slam to people's portfolios. And further headwinds in this very weak "recovery" works mightily against Clinton.
I am buying Deutsche Bank today for what its worth.
World ends tomorrow. Women and Children most affected.
They really don't understand us.
The only people who really want the status quo are in financial services or government employees.
Shorter James Hohmann:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTmfwklFM-M
Nanapod
Agree. Our Canadian neighbors have a very interesting approach to immigration. If you are in the country illegally they put you on a place home. They welcome immigrants who can make a financial contribution to Canada.
Weird huh?
Trump supporters should emulate Scott Adams, and tell pollsters they intend to vote for Hillary, both in the interest of self-preservation (why would anyone tell some anonymous caller his or her political preferences and not assume it could be shared?) and to encourage complacency on the part of the Hillary machine (including MSM). Under the radar worked for Reagan in 1980.
He forgot the obvious:
6. Democracy
Hmm, who is hurt most by the "market tanking" right now?
Well, Hoodlum, obviously people who own a lot of equities.
What sort of person owns a lot of equities, now?
Well, Hoodlum, obviously the very wealthy own a lot of equities.
Does that mean that the "market tanking" hurts very wealthy people, say the "1%" most, now?
Why yes, Hoodlum, yes it does.
Stock market declines stick it to those fat cat 1%ers, so we should be celebrating those declines, right? Since "banksters" have so much ill-gotten money and the decline harms them, right?
Brexit decreases inequality by reducing the wealth of the 1%! Is there anything it can't do?!
The point being -- it's a lot easier for people to overthrow an establishment when they're given a vote on it.
Anyone who thinks it's acceptable to vote for Hillary Clinton is sufficiently divorced from reality to underestimate Donald Trump's chances of winning.
In the short term, the impending fallout from Brexit will make the presumptive Democratic nominee look good
Why?
Because it was the result of a video?
Because she was up at 3 a.m to receive a call with the vote totals?
Because this incident shows just how badly we need an incompetent, corrupt, ethically challenged sleaze bag For President?
Anyone who thinks Trump has a shot is seriously underestimating Hillary’s ability to steal the presidential election.
By Any Means Necessary
The map at the link is interesting.
Now watch some old Thatcher-era movies about Britain's industrial decline.
Billy Eliot
Brassed Off
The Full Monty
The heroes of those movies are now the resentful, xenophobic, isolationist, geriatric people who voted to exit.
2. XENOPHOBIA
This is my shocked face. The Progs cannot fathom that somebody might think an invasion of military aged men with a bit of a record of assaulting women and raping little boys might not be something to applaud are just "haters".
Henry said...The heroes of those movies are now the resentful, xenophobic, isolationist, geriatric people who voted to exit.
Progressives will love them again when they are useful again.
The wait to see a doctor in the UK is now four weeks. Four weeks.
The sell off today is occurring because the stock market was overbought by all those investors who thought that Brexit would fail. Long term investors don't have to sell and after allowing a few days for things to settle down, they can take advantage of lower prices and buy more shares of stock.
David Begley said...The wait to see a doctor in the UK is now four weeks. Four weeks.
Same for me. My Humana gets me top priority. Still 4-weeks. She only see's one patient every half hour, that's 7 or 8 patients a day, and she has hundreds of patients.
"Which loser will brow-beat Congress the most. That's my litmus test."
Congress? That's like kicking your housecat while the fox is among your chickens.
The real power is in the bureaucracies and their hangers-on.
Who is going to kick them?
I am buying Deutsche Bank today for what its worth.
@Michael, if you really wanted to make some serious money, buy Washington Post writers like James Hohmann, Dana Milbank, Gene Robinson, Chris Cilizza, Ruth Marcus, and E. J. Dionne for what they're really worth, then sell them for what they think they're worth.
"Forced to choose between their heads and their hearts, the Brits went with their hearts."
It must be too much to ask the WaPo to believe that people voted in their own best interest and had a rational reason for their choice.
The markets are overreacting to Brexit which is typical. Traders (and I mean that term pejoratively) hate uncertainty. Grab some cash and wait 'til Monday when you can figure out what to buy. Coupe is right about the opportunities that will be available. The stock markets have been way overpriced because of the Fed's ridiculous monetary policy, and a silly push by traders over the last week or so. Brexit has had no significant effect on American industry in the short term. If the pound stays depressed that might change a bit, but I am betting the pound rises markedly on Monday.
interest rates may spike
Bonds are so confusing, up means down and all that.
Big Mike
From your pen to God's ear.
None of those people are as smart as you are or as well read as I am or whose opinions are more grounded in deep thought than ours.
@ Big Mike. Great assessment of the WAPO editorial staff. They have gone off the rails. They make the NYT writers look like moderates!
When the world eventually comes to an end, it won't be foretold by these people.
"coupe said...
David Begley said...The wait to see a doctor in the UK is now four weeks. Four weeks.
Same for me. My Humana gets me top priority. Still 4-weeks. She only see's one patient every half hour, that's 7 or 8 patients a day, and she has hundreds of patients."
There's a difference between "a doctor" and "your doctor."
Why is the vote stunning. Who is really stunned by this? People living in a bubble.
Every poll indicated a very tight race -- that it went one way rather than the other stuns you?
Idiot.
Zounds! The great seer is in a panic!
"Interest rates may spike"
No. FOMC could even retract the recent rise. London will lower rates, the continent is in negative territory. Money will therefor flow where? Yes. And that means lower rates here.
"@Michael, if you really wanted to make some serious money, buy Washington Post writers like James Hohmann, Dana Milbank, Gene Robinson, Chris Cilizza, Ruth Marcus, and E. J. Dionne for what they're really worth, then sell them for what they think they're worth."
It would be nice to be able to sell them short.
Good thing the UK instead of us, is the canary in the coal mine. We here in the US can watch the process and learn a lesson.
INterest rates spike?
I doubt it. if you sell stocks, you buy bonds to get some income. US treas will be popular.
There fore the price goes up - therefore the rate goes down.
you can;t have interest rates up and prices up
The markets are going to tank today
US equities are off today 2-3%. Yesterday they were up 1-1.25%. I guess I have a different definition of 'tank'.
Japan has negative interest rates so you don't even get all your money back.
David Begley said...The wait to see a doctor in the UK is now four weeks. Four weeks.
Same for me. My Humana gets me top priority. Still 4-weeks. She only see's one patient every half hour, that's 7 or 8 patients a day, and she has hundreds of patients.
I am by no means a wealthy man but when I call up my doctor to make an appointment I can generally get one the next day, two at most. The other day I was able to get in that day when I called in first thing in the morning. My back was killing me, the doctor told me to remember my age and prescribed an anti-inflammatory.
If I had to wait four weeks to see my physician I would find another one.
The writers, the managers and the owner of WaPo all want Hillary to win. That's why WaPo doesn't investigate her bribery scheme. The Ruling Class.
I'm surprised at how many 30-something Americans (progressives) are furious at the UK for voting Leave. They're talking on social media and elsewhere as if Britain, which most of them have never visited and never will, making a catastrophic mistake on their behalf. They're completely rattled by the markets, although few of them have 401(k)s or the disposable income to invest.
The only way I can make sense of this is that Brexit has become a signifier to them for some type of global, obviously (to them) xenophobic, generic Trumpism, like a zombie plague. What's next, dear God? Mortality?
I love how serious intellectuals now consider it totally acceptable to slap "Fear of Others" as a serious reason for disliking open immigration/poorly controlled immigration.
Like there isn't very solid room to look at the results of poorly controlled immigration and say "This isn't good for the country."
Younger Brits voted to Remain. The older Brits, who voted to Exit, outnumber the young. Not the same dynamic here, our older generation doesn't yet outnumber the younger generation in overwhelming numbers.
"The wait to see a doctor in the UK is now four weeks. Four weeks."
Thousands of NHS doctors, mostly the young one, are leaving for Canada and Australia.
Ive been posting on this over at Chicago Boyz.
‘More and more British GPs talk about the pressure they’re under,’ says Guy Hazel. ‘I’m not sure the general public understand how mentally draining it is to see 35 to 40 patients a day. All the British GPs I know are exhausted.’
An Australian GP, by contrast, will see 20-25 patients per day.
We are seeing the same thing here but they are trapped by student loans that will take decades to pay off.
Not too hard to figure out the bad polling data. Why would someone who planed to vote leave tell some pollster he/she didn't know. I just hope the establishment guys don't figure it out.
Shorter WaPost article: "Omygod, Trump could actually win!"
Xenophobia - the tired and repeated leftwing accusation. zzzz.
Forced to choose between their heads and their hearts, the Brits went with their hearts.
How would he know? It's apparent from the article that Mr. WaPo guy has zero insight into what's in either their heads or their hearts.
Globos are sure it's their opponents who are "living the past". Who are the real nostalgia-mongers here? This piece reads as if someone were competing to be the media-lackey who can cram the most stale globo propoganda into one short article. (To be fair, these days they all tend to sound like that.)
Couple of examples: Scapegoating immigrants worked. Polls show that fear of refugees and immigrants from the E.U.’s open borders was a top issue driving votes to leave.
There's that misuse of "scapegoat" again. Refugees and uncontrolled immigration are causing enormous, potentially catastrophic, problems, and chuckleheads like this guy are still trying to pretend that people's reactions are based on entirely irrational fears? Sometimes it's hard to believe that these people actually believe the nonsense they write.
Trump likes to describe his foreign policy as “America First,” even though it has been pointed out to him that this is the same catchphrase Charles Lindbergh used in the late 1930s when he was trying to stop the U.S. from assisting Britain in its war for national survival against the Nazis.
Oh, "it was pointed out to him that..."? Gee, Mr. WaPo Guy, maybe other people might not share your cartoonish, 100% presentist take on Lindbergh and the America First movement, and therefore don't have a mindless Pavlovian response to the phrase?
And on and on it goes. Not that there's anything new in this attitude of "all disagreement with My Holy Writ arises from ignorance and bigotry", but the peculiar parochialism of these people is really starting to sound like it is nurtured in a madhouse. Or a "special needs" journalism program.
Xenophobia - the tired and repeated leftwing accusation. zzzz.
Sigh! I know! I've been a true xenophile all of my life but the left would still call me a xenophobe because I believe in borders and LEGAL immigration. I love the way Trump just thumbs his nose at these aspersions and we should, too!
Piss on the Left! They've had their turn. Now it's ours.
No, Trump could not win here based on the same dynamic as stated above. We are a much larger country and much more diverse. But hey, keep hope alive. The WaPo guy is spooked, but if he gave it some more thought he wouldn't have written this stupid article. Brexit and it's fallout will only help defeat Trump. It's already started, look at the stock market. The canary in the coal mine, the UK, is gasping for air.
Unknown said: Good thing the UK instead of us, is the canary in the coal mine. We here in the US can watch the process and learn a lesson.
EUROPE is the canary and we can see very clearly what uncontrolled immigration has done to them. The UK won't be the last to check out.
the peculiar parochialism
I read an article a while back by a young woman who tried watching the original Star Trek because so many of her friends liked it, however she was forced to condemn it because some of the episodes did not 100% comply with current SJW dogma.
She reported that seeing such fare not only upset her, it made her physically ill.
So you can pretty much bet that Yale is going to eliminate the requirement that English majors study English poets. White males are so yesterday.
Disagree with a leftie on ANYTHING and you are a racist. Blow it out your ears, I could care less what you think anymore.
The way the leftist media are reporting Brexit reminds me of Tom Brokaw in 1994 when Republicans won the House in a mid-term election. The incredulous look on his face as he reported the returns said it all. He couldn't believe that voters could be that stupid . :-D I loved it!
For those talking about the polling.
To see what those of us who are skeptical of polling are saying, you need to look at February polls. Because we are 5 months from the US election and that where we are with the Feb polls.
The best poll for Brexit in February was at the beginning or the month, 36-45, which had Brexit winning by 9 points.
Most of the polls that had Brexit winning in February had it winning by a much slimmer margin and never did Brexit exceed 50%.
On the other hand, remain had
54-36 (Remain by 18 points!)
48-33 (Remain by 15 points)
52-39 (Remain by 13 points)
And these have remain near 50% or over 50%.
How can anyone rely on such polling, is the point? In other words, did the polls back in February give us any useful information? Or was it just noise?
People here like to mock those who mess with unskewing the polls.
Answer me this, how can any poll, five months out from an election, ever be demonstrated to be laughably, arguably, wrong?
Trending across the UK, #What have we done? Buyer's remorse already. Take a lesson America.
This should actually strengthen the EU, because being a member of the EU is so beneficial, that the UK is going to fall apart now. The rest of Europe and the US will see that, and all the right wing/populist movements will lose all their members.
Right?
"Take a lesson America."
I think our lesson was that, despite the naysayers, breaking away works out alright in the long run.
In many ways, the causes for support of leaving the EU mirrored the reasons for the American revolution. The failure of [mostly] liberals, corporations and elitists to see this is, to me, both revealing and damning. The argument for remaining in the EU centered on concentrating power in the un-elected and crony capitalism.
The recent display of Democrat hubris vis-a-vis the sit-in in the house also betrays them as supporting this same kind of unregulated power. Ironically, the biggest reason for electing Trump is precisely to so the press and others will finally actually chisel away at federal, and especially executive, authority.
British Pound down by 10%.
By the time our election rolls around, Brexit may look better, or worse. If it looks better, it might help Trump. If it looks worse, it will not help him.
Brett is not self-executing. The UK has to renegotiate all of its treaties with the European Union. That will take years. And the shape of those renegotiations is impossible to predict. So this is not a momentary uncertainty. It is years of uncertainty.
Unknown said...
Trending across the UK, #What have we done? Buyer's remorse already. Take a lesson America.
That's right. Never try anything different. Protect the status quo. It's so much safer that way, right?
I'm tired of the rational frustration with the failure of some cultures to assimilate being called 'xenophobia'.
As to what the Brexit vote says about our election in the US? My guess is only that it's foolish to assume anything, especially in 2016: The Year all Assumptions were Proven Wrong(rated PG13). Trump wasn't supposed to make it this far. The Brexit wasn't supposed to happen. Hillary was supposed to be coronated completely unchallenged, and not be stymied for months on end by some weird upstart Socialist fuddy duddy. There wasn't supposed to be so much unrest under the benevolent reign of our Dear Leader Obama. The economy was supposed to be going gangbusters, with 5% GDP growth and a climbing Labor Force Participation Rate. There weren't supposed to be any more major radical Islamic terrorist occurring domestically.
James Hohmann is amazingly tone deaf, the sort of fellow so busy lecturing everyone else that the only voice he ever hears is his own. His comments about what supposedly motivated the 'leave' voters, and might motivate Trump voters in the US, are resentment, xenophobia, and isolationism. No doubt, that is how he seems any voter who disagrees with his take on things -- small minded, ignorant, a bit paranoid, definitely not Ivy material.
In that, he is quite like Obama and Hillary! If anything gets undecided voters to elect Trump in November, it will be the incessant and very tiresome lecturing by the James Hohmanns of this world.
I do not understand why this is so "stunning." It was clear that it was going to be a close vote. Also, because the topic was unlike a usual election for public office, polling was probably inherently less reliable.
Unknown
Excellent bargains in London. Love hash tag. #LOL
You are posting some unknowntastic bull today. Really clueless stuff.
Unknown
Soros said it would be down 20% in order to scare people into voting Remain.
Trending across the UK, #What have we done? Buyer's remorse already.
Buyer's remorse already. At least among Twitter users! #StatisticallySignificant
Dow closes at 609 points down. Whoopie, the U.K. Thumbed their noses at the EU. In the meantime we here in the US will feel the heat.
British Pound down by 10%.
A weaker currency is a catalyst for boosting exports, creating manufacturing jobs, and increasing corporate earnings.
Good for attracting foreign visitors who have and like to spend money, too.
Dow closes at 609 points down. Whoopie, the U.K. Thumbed their noses at the EU. In the meantime we here in the US will feel the heat
So, a good buying opportunity then.
Similarities between Trump voters and Brits who wanted to Leave. Education. Majority uneducated. Well, duh.
Unknown
Now do educated people say "Well, duh?"
Similarities between Trump voters and Brits who wanted to Leave. Education. Majority uneducated. Well, duh.
Arise workers! All you have to lose are your chains! We will break the back of the capitalist oligarchy sucking the blood from the working class! Onward comrades!
Wait? What? Oh.
Screw those working class bastards!
BBC has a better take on it than the asinine WaPo:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36564808?SThisFB
They do if they are mocking you and using words the uneducated understand.
Disaffected losers more likely. Workers are too busy working.
Today Brexit., tomorrow Paul Ryan..
SWHC was up! Good old Smith and Wesson. There when you need it.
Oh no! The S&P 500 was off 3.6% today - TANK! Of course, it was up 2.02% through yesterday. Meh, I've seen worse weeks in the last year. Several in the last 8.
Oh, by the way, care to guess which "European" market fared the best today?
Lol at Unknown/Inga playing market maven.
Disaffected losers more likely.
Most people don't know this, but Marx was fond of going up to people who were being ground down by the capitalistic system that exploited the worker to enrich a small oligarchy of rich, politically powerful people and telling them, "screw you loser, winners win!"
Anglelyne said...
Lol at Unknown/Inga playing market maven.
You beat me to it.
Unknown has his public employee pension to count on. Unless he's in Illinois. Then frowny face.
Unknown is smart. Very, very smart. You're not gonna believe how smart. Not like you dumb uneducated workers. Sad!
screw you loser, winners win!
Of course this was adopted by the Republican party as their slogan for the presidential race in 1932. Printed on banners, posters, and pins it was ubiquitous at all Republican events.
FYI. There are several "Unknowns" who comment now. We are not all the same person.
"Oh, by the way, care to guess which "European" market fared the best today?"
By a lot. Not surprising.
Look how Greece did.
"FYI. There are several "Unknowns" who comment now. We are not all the same person."
___________
Then why don't you all make up some user names?!
They're all the same person. Prove otherwise.
Look at Blogger Profile numbers dummy.
Here's a trick: use an occasional grammar or punctuation mistake. That might get you some feed with the folks who follow you.
Look at Blogger Profile numbers dummy.
It's easy to tell which Unkown is which, but it has to said that only a dummy would think that unique blogger profile numbers is proof that one person isn't posting under multiple accounts using the same name.
not a surprise,
http://www.newsbusters.org/journalists/james-hohmann
Blogger Unknown said...
FYI. There are several "Unknowns" who comment now. We are not all the same person.
Wait! If there can be multiple "Unknown" commentators, then there might be another "Big Mike" somewhere? Oh, that poor b*st**d.
So, Mr. "Unknown," are you the known "Unknown"? Or are you the unknown "Unknown"? Or perhaps you are the unknowable "Unknown."
It's very confusing.
Violent Mexican gangbanger violence must fall under his "xenophobia". Odd way to put it.
He also forgot to mention violence against Trump and name calling Trump and Trump supporters. Apparently this guy doesn't know what just happened and why.
RE: Multiple Unknowns
At this point, what difference does it make?
It's not like any of the Unknowns offer anything useful.
Unknown:
What's your reasoning to believe that #whathavewedone is populated by even one person who actually voted to Leave? It's almost certainly filled with people who voted to Remain. They weren't the Buyers. The Buyers - the ones who voted to Leave - are probably partying their asses off. Get back to me when *they* regret it.
To this day political scientists and professional politicians still speculate on the motivations of the voters for rejecting the Republican party in such large numbers.
"We may never know their motivation," stated one prominent political scientist.
Anglelyne said...Lol at Unknown/Inga playing market maven.
Just like markets, Inga Moods Swing Like A Pendulum Do
I am considering becoming Unknownbuwaya. But that would be giving the game away perhaps.
There are already two buwayas as it is, though we are the same creature, though perhaps we also contain multitudes.
Anyway, I think it would be good form for new commenters to introduce themselves and present some form of credentials, a background, a life story, a curriculum vitae, however fanciful and dishonest.
perhaps we also contain multitudes.
I am legion, personally.
no that doesn't work, no matter what his handle, unknown ladles the same talking points, you on the other hand, have interesting angles on things,
"We are not all the same person."
Shit dude, you're scamming the Hillary campaign by pretending to be multiple shills? Pretty cool. Anyway, the bitch can afford it.
The UK only joined the EU [or the EEC as it was then known] in 1973. So what's with all this 'historic' crap about their leaving?
"Unknown" in itself, as itself, is singularly generic, bland, lacking in vivacity and ethnic charm. Everyone should aspire to be some sort of Star Trek character (only the mad and tedious would want to be actual Star Trek characters of course), one of a constellation of the unique.
"
Blogger Unknown said...
Similarities between Trump voters and Brits who wanted to Leave. Education. Majority uneducated. Well, duh."
Unknown is trying to teach us how the left wins elections.
By talking down and with phony black dialect, like Hillary and Slow Joe.
Unknown commenters galore, what fun! I believe there are a few conservative Unknowns also.
"The UK only joined the EU [or the EEC as it was then known] in 1973. "
I remember 1973. You probably remember 1973. A lot of these people don't. For them it may as well have been 1573.
Lower case unknown inspired me to change my handle. Gosh, I miss that crazy bastard.
@unknown Why should we bother to differentiate one "unknown" from the other. As was mentioned above, if you have any pride in, or feeling of responsibility for, what you say adopt a unique user name no matter how fictitious. Otherwise your valuable contribution will be lost in the static of the "other unknowns".
This welcome news calls for a celebration!
The closest thing I have in the beer fridge is Yards Brawler, which is in the style of an English mild, so I'll down one of those tonight, because beer.
It's the least I can do.
"so I'll down one of those tonight, because beer."
Beer is a cause, a reason, a purpose, and an end in itself.
@unknown Why should we bother to differentiate one "unknown" from the other.
There are people who want to express their opinions and don't concern themselves with an identity. Don't differentiate between Unknowns or do, whatever floats your boat.
I'd go Sierra Nevada pale ale. It's available everywhere, and crap, they must have incredible quality control on delivery and storage, because it's always good.
But OK, I'll try that Yards Brawler.
Eric the Fruit Bat has signalled the call to arms and I, for one, must answer the call.
Unknown, there are those who are afraid to identify themselves when they say something.
It's not all bad, the price of Scotch whiskey is falling.
I've been trying to figure out why any American would care about this. Sure, the markets will react, but then they will adjust. They always do.
I can see that conservatives are happy about it because they enjoy seeing a blow for freedom and individual rights anywhere. But most of the commentary I am seeing is from the American left. What does it matter to them that the UK leaves the EU? Is it because a Democratic operative managed the campaign to stay? (Are they all really so inside the machine that they would even know that?) Or is it because Soros backed the Remain campaign? (Again, are they all so really inside the machine they would know that?) I just can not understand it.
"Even people that truly hate me are saying it’s the best they’ve ever seen,” he said, before inviting his three adult children to give remarks.
At the press conference that followed, Trump was asked if he’d been conferring with his foreign policy advisers. “I’ve been in touch with them, but there’s nothing to talk about,” he responded."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-brexit-scotland-visit-224761
That says it all.
he's a borg, named tad, or chip.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/24/investing/brexit-impact-on-american-global-economy/
The so-called Brexit has wide implications for the U.S. economy, which is already facing a slew of headwinds.
The chief of the U.S. central bank and top monetary policy setting official, Janet Yellen, forewarned earlier this week that Brexit "would negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economy."
Trade between the two nations only makes up 0.5% of U.S. economic activity. However, the connections go well beyond direct trade between the two global powers.
The effect on America can come through a number of chain reactions -- a Brexit domino effect on the global economy. Here are four ways the wake of Brexit could hurt the U.S. economy.
Try saying "youse" or "y'all". That'll convince the folks that you're sincere. If you want to seem west-coast, just go with "what's up?!"
cnn, the folks who've gotten every one of these stories wrong, yes that's who I'd turn to.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/06/24/sharyl-attkisson-brexit-support-was-largely-censored-from-the-mainstream-media/
Unknown- Hmmm. I'm not buying the gloom and doom for the US economy. Even though my bank is using the Brexit as a hook to have me meet with them and "review my investments." It is all speculation. All unknown.
It's rather frustrating being one of the Unknowns here. I am not, for example, the same Unknown who is salivating over each bit of bad news regarding the UK today as if he will be able to physically eat the sufferings of the Leave voters he so looks down upon.
Then say your name.
For years my constant practice in responding to poll-takers has been to lie. But, reading Mr. Hohmann's article, a great light fell upon me, and I felt an overwhelming urge to tug at my forelock. Simply lying was so unsophisticated. Just what you'd expect of some flyover oaf. I don't have to be "them," I can transmute into "us." What I'm going to do now is answer pollers as my betters on the WAPO editorial staff would. By doing and saying as they would, I shall gradually become as they are. Watch this comment space to bear witness to the progress of my edulcoration.
Some useful words for Hillary supporters and the anti-Trumpsters: Unexpected – astonishing – stunning – sudden - unforeseen – unanticipated – staggering – unpredicted – remarkable. All these words are going to become very useful in the coming months leading up to November.
Useful thesaurus for us Trump supporters: Amazing – fortuitous – wonderful – electrifying – payback – retribution – vindication – revenge – fallout – aftermath – hyuuuge – awesome – stupendous – fabulous – historical.
My good deed for the day.
On unknown: Unknown is unknown, whether it’s one sock puppet or three.
I used "all y'all" in a comment the other day just to show my street cred.
It must be too much to ask the WaPo to believe that people voted in their own best interest and had a rational reason for their choice.
"Best interest": Another clever buzz phrase that works so very well among those that never question.
I once disagreed with an old college friend about some political point. He accused me of voting against my self-interest. I asked him, politely, if he thought saddling my children with unfathomable debt was in my self interest; or limiting their ability to succeed in life through onerous, often illogical, regulation and a few other items.
Friends for 40 years..... 'til then.
Same for me. My Humana gets me top priority. Still 4-weeks. She only see's one patient every half hour, that's 7 or 8 patients a day, and she has hundreds of patients.
You would think that a good moby would be more subtle.
We may require the services of Mr. Rumsfeld to untangle the Known Unknowns from the Unknown Unknowns. Also, a truly singular person could, perhaps, call it/her/himself "The Known Known".
grackle:
The mobys charge more for subtle. Hillary is cheap.
cnn, the folks who've gotten every one of these stories wrong, yes that's who I'd turn to.
You mean the Clinton News Network? Yep. Useless.
"Don't differentiate between Unknowns or do, whatever floats your boat."
Yes, I will skip them all.
Yes, keep calling your opposition xenophobes and racists for wanting the laws enforced.
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2016/06/24/the-other-side-of-populism/
The whole world is reeling after a milestone referendum in Britain to leave the European Union. And although leaders of the campaign to exit Europe are crowing over their victory, it seems many Britons may not even know what they had actually voted for…
“Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just — the reality did actually hit me,” one woman told the news channel ITV News. “If I’d had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay.”
That confusion over what Brexit might mean for the country’s economy appears to have been reflected across the United Kingdom on Thursday. Google reported sharp upticks in searches not only related to the ballot measure but also about basic questions concerning the implications of the vote. At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for “what happens if we leave the EU” had more than tripled.
One can appreciate the humorous aspect of this, no?
Unknown
Are you implying that no one in the UK googled the EU before today? It is rumored that stsy supporters were curious about what they were voting for. LOL
Do you like live in Brussels? LOL
And how about that bond market? Hoping for your take on that. LOL
Unknown: It's rather frustrating being one of the Unknowns here. I am not, for example, the same Unknown who is salivating over each bit of bad news regarding the UK today as if he will be able to physically eat the sufferings of the Leave voters he so looks down upon.
There is a simple way to spare yourself that frustration, ya know.
"I'd go Sierra Nevada pale ale. It's available everywhere, and crap, they must have incredible quality control on delivery and storage, because it's always good."
I agree. It's my regular beer.
Unknown the Copy-Paster:
The so-called Brexit has wide implications for the U.S. economy, which is already facing a slew of headwinds.
The chief of the U.S. central bank and top monetary policy setting official, Janet Yellen, forewarned earlier this week that Brexit "would negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economy."
IOW, Brexit is a godsend for the likes of Yellen. Something to blame when the financial shit inevitably hits the fan.
What a bunch of panty-waist bastards! What foolish craptards! You need lessons to learn how to even try how to be serious.
"Google reported that searches for “what happens if we leave the EU” had more than tripled."
I see you've gotten your official Globalist Talking Points Memo for today. The interconnected MSM couldn't wait to mass-publish that drivel. What a joke you people are. You lost, so now discredit, delay, delay, delay, drag your feet, then eventually push for another vote until you get the result you want.
Nobody is fooled anymore. Scared yet?
I might add: Maybe they resented some nameless unelected bureaucrat in Brussels telling them they can't buy their tea kettle because of some arcane regulation.
When I was growing up, there was a saying we said to someone who overreacted: Don't make a federal case out of it.
now the Feds in the USA are interfering with minutia in our daily lives, from the bathroom fights to school lunches...(and don't get me started on how they are destroying medicine).
And there might be a "law and order" point to this: in the Philippines, Duterte won because the middle class got tired of the elite getting rich on bribes while allowing drugs and violence to destroy us.
"Scared yet?"
Scared? No. US voters aren't as stupid as these old disgruntled Brits. Different demographic here, we are a larger more diverse country.
UK 83% white.
US 63% white.
Bad math for Trump.
First, they aborted the babies. Second, they planned to retain their lucrative parts. Then, they advocated for [class] diversity (e.g. racism, sexism). Finally, they created a global humanitarian disaster.
The anti-native and [class] diversity factions have reaped their profits and now the People are planning their future.
imagine that your cul de sac had 28 homes and the ‘Brussels’ family down the block had the authority to: 1) set all policy for the street; 2) could tell all of us that you must pay the way for the Greek family at the end of the street, who have sat on their butts for a couple of generations; and 3) set rules that the all homes must leave their doors un-locked and windows open lest you seem unfriendly to the gangs of thugs in the area.
Unknown is looking for a house in this neighborhood. LOL
Chuck
Chuckster!! LOL That is just chuckalistic thinking. Stunning. Many thanks for that one
Stunning that Michael doesn't realize that London voted overwhelmingly to Remain. They are diverse, more educated overall and a younger demographic. The US has many such large cities that wil not give Trump the majority vote.
Nancy Reyes - Pinay ka ba?
Unknown
Gosh, I did know that London voted to stay. I have been there many times and know many bankers there since that is my business. The bankers have a sad today because many of them will lose their jobs because of the impositions that will be imposed by the EU. Tough shit for them, Unknown, because the bankers in Berlin will pick up the business. I know you hate to see 1% bankers getting the shaft, especially when they wanted to stay in the EU for reasons that you could not find with a seeing eye dog, but there you have it.
Stunning that you think this is an insight. Because if you think it through you will note that no matter how London voted, no matter how diverse they are, no matter how well educated and young they are. They lost.
Cheers as they say over there.
How about that - Donald Rumsfeld in an interview on Wednesday, regarding unknowns -
"On the Democrats' side, we have a known known. On the Republican side, we have a recent entry, who's a known unknown."
"I'm clearly going to vote for him," Rumsfeld said of Trump. "I just can’t imagine not.”
London voted to stay because it has become an imperial city just like Washington D.C. and wanted the gravy train to continue. London was the one part of the United Kingdom that actually benefited from being in the European Union. Now, sadly many of the "right sort of people" are going to lose their cushy government jobs, and that can't be allowed.
Stunning that Michael doesn't realize that London voted overwhelmingly to Remain. They are diverse, more educated overall and a younger demographic. The US has many such large cities that wil not give Trump the majority vote.
'Younger' and 'better educated' don't belong in the same sentence, here or in the UK.
But the results across the pond spotlight five forces that could allow him to score an upset:
1. RESENTMENT OF ELITES....
2. XENOPHOBIA...
3. ISOLATIONISM...
4. FLAWED POLLING
5. COMPLACENCY
So it's all cool.
"Pond spotlight five" sounds romantic yet related to a prison camp.
Chuck said...
UK 83% white.
US 63% white.
Bad math for Trump.
Chuck has a point here. It would be difficult for Trump to win with those numbers. The numbers for likely voters are more favorable, approx. 76% white, although still difficult.
ARM
The percentages are meaningless without attendant voter turnout. The toffs didn't come out in the rain. They are white, they vote their interests, they stayed home. Many many districts in the north and the midlands, heavily populated with east Asians, came out to leave. IOW the brown people carried the day.
Russia, Iran and Trump delighted that Great Britain is leaving the EU.
Russia, Iran, Trump, and The Cracker Ethnocentrist delighted that Great Britain is leaving the EU.
Also delighted: A majority of brits.
You're awfully bitter about this, Unknown.
I picture you as someone in their early to mid twenties, pursuing a liberal arts degree or master's. As a result of a dearth of any real academic value in your education and a decidedly un-diverse social circle, fallacy is indistinguishable to you from the concept of argument.
"Un diverse social circle"..... LOL. Brits with buyer's remorse who are now frantically googling what the EU is and how leaving it might affect them. Ooops too late.
From all accounts, the British media drumbeat for "Remain" was incessant and, after Jo Cox's murder,it became hysterical. Britons were told that voting "Leave" was basically siding with the MP's murderer and would drag the country, not only into recession but into war. Despite that , a majority of British voters were able to see through the media bias and dramatics, reject them, and vote on what they considered the merits.
And that's what should be terrifying the Democrats. If people stop believing the media narrative here, they'll stop electing leftists.
Chuck:
UK 83% white.
US 63% white.
Bad math for Trump.
And the death knell of "conservatism".
I think the best part of stupid is the way the headline writers in Brussels came up with the "frantic" googling headline. Frantic.
Custom made for the stupid to cut and paste. Frantically. LOL
Allah explains why Trump has work to do. (If he really wants to win and isn't a hillery stalking whore.)
The idea that UK leaving the EU will effect our election is silly.
Just saw a clickbait article: "Will Brexit destroy Game of Thrones"?
Anglelyne:
Why the death of conservatism? If Trump gets keelhauled in November, and if the UK economy sputters in the face of Brexit, why wouldn't that mean the Death of Trumpism?
Are you saying that conservatism is just for white folks? I'd say not. Populism/Socialism/Nationalism have failed wherever they've been tried (lately, Venezuela, Greece and of course Zimbabwe). While marketeering internationalism -- with a very healthy dose of conservative economics -- keeps succeeding pretty much everywhere it is given a chance. Hong Kong. Singapore. Switzerland. The United States of America!
You might just say, Switzerland is notably not in the EU. Correct. And I am no great fan of the EU. The Brexit vote would have been a difficult one for me if I had been a Brit. I imagine it was a hard vote for a great many Tories. But the real point is that conservatism isn't just for white people anymore. I works everywhere, regardless of race creed or the origin of your national economy.
But the real point is that conservatism isn't just for white people anymore. I works everywhere, regardless of race creed or the origin of your national economy.
It's not often I agree with you, Chuck. But I do here.
"Trump is the only one who has any concept of outreach to minorities."
Trump understands outreach to minorities? Ah yes that is why he waffled about the endorsement.by white supremacists. I bet that went over big with African Americans and Jews. How about that outreach to Hispanics? Nevermind the insults about Mexican rapists. How about the
Judge from Indiana who couldn't be impartial because of his Mexican heritage?
In what universe is Trump impartial and inclusive to minorities?
American Blacks aren't exactly happy being pushed to the back of the line as immigrants take the lion's share of benefits. You might see results that make Chuck look like an even bigger idiot. If that's possible. . .
"Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are little short guys that wear yarmulkes every day."
~ Mr. Donald J. Trump, quoted in the 1991 book Trumped! by John R. O'Donnell. O'Donnell was the president and chief operating officer of the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City for three years. Asked, years later about the book, Trump said, "The stuff O'Donnell wrote about me is probably true."
UK Prty leader admits his bold Brexit claim was a "mistake".
As Britain awoke on Friday to the news that it had voted in favor of withdrawing from the European Union, voters were introduced to their new reality with a stunning admission from Nigel Farage, the pro-Brexit advocate who leads the U.K. Independence Party. Farage said that the Vote Leave campaign's signature pledge—that leaving the European Union would allow for £350 million to be spent on the U.K.'s National Health Service—was a "mistake."
Farage's mea culpa was made during an appearance on Good Morning Britain, where he was asked if he could continue supporting that promise after the campaign to extract the United Kingdom from the European Union had succeeded.
"No I can't, and I would have never made that claim," Farage said. "It was one of the mistakes I think the 'leave' campaign made"
Overwhelming buyers remorse may turn this around.
because hard working african americans and latinos understand the reality, no matter how much say bet and univision obscure the facts,
Unknown
Overwhelming buyers remorse may turn this around.
Too late.
Great for the bond market today though, no?
Unknown said...
"In what universe is Trump impartial and inclusive to minorities?"
Your arguments are ignorant and fatuous. You reek of idiot hipster completely lacking in critical thinking skills. Anyone with half a mind knows all of the dumb talking points you are talking about. For example the Judge from Indiana who is a member of La Raza. The Race for idiots like you. The judge is a member of a group whose foundational principal is racism and only real difference with the KKK is the color of the targets.
Hillary is endorsed by The Race and refuses to renounce that endorsement while Trump has renounced the KKK repeatedly. You are just a stupid douche.
I've been trying to avoid chuck since he got a little crazy the other d, but this begs for a response.
Why the death of conservatism? If Trump gets keelhauled in November, and if the UK economy sputters in the face of Brexit, why wouldn't that mean the Death of Trumpism?
If Trump gets "keelhauled in November" it will be the end of "Trumpism" and the beginning of something very ugly and dangerous.
I have been accused by one of the local leftist lunatics of wanting a revolution. That is not true. I have been predicting one.
If Trump fails, I don't see how it can be avoided, It will not be pleasant for anyone and especially for the financial services people who hate Trump so much because he threatens their sweet livelihood.
When we in Britain last September our friends had a dinner party. I sat next to and spent the evening conversing with a guy was a Lloyd's "Name" who was bankrupted by the asbestos lawsuits.
He would cheerfully put the noose around the neck of the trial lawyer under the lamppost. They have no idea that even well off people are so angry.
"But most of the commentary I am seeing is from the American left. What does it matter to them that the UK leaves the EU?"
I noticed that too. The butthurt seems wildly disproportionate.
"seriously underestimating".... no shit Sherlock?
Americans are tired of this illegal alien and Muslin insurgency. Times are about to change. Only question is, how many of the 'establishment' get their walking papers.
I "didn't get a little crazy the other day," Michael.
You just overdid it, with your regular, continual, baseless, moronic trashtalking about others (including, unfortunately for you, me) needing some sort of medication or mental health treatment. And, as you know and as I want everyone else to know, what I said to you was that you wouldn't do that in front of me. At least you wouldn't do it for long. You are too old, to get into it with somebody like me.
I hoped you thought better of it and changed your ways. If you are still going to go on with these personal attacks in some new passive-aggressive way, I'd be happy to re-state my offer to rearrange your dental work.
The author: "People’s 401(k)’s might take a shellacking, and interest rates may spike." This will hold rates down, not cause them to increase, most likely. The 401k is just a paper loss for most in a long term game. But low interest rates are distorting the world economy (and a sign of other distortions) and their continuation is not a good feature. It's both evidence and cause of economic weakness.
"Trumpism"
As if Trump were a cause, and not a symptom.
Chuck rages at his "Check Engine" light, while his engine springs leak after leak. Out, damned light! It's all your fault the engine's on fire!
Clinton had double digit lead over Trump.
She leads with the people who are willing to show up.
If we don't dump Trump, say hello to Clinton's supreme court picks + institutionalized corruption.
had = has
Nichevo said...
Not being a Christian, I don't want to do this wrong, but imagine Chuck's reaction to Jesus, if chuck had been a well-to-do Jerusalem election lawyer in the year 36.
OMG, this guy says he's the king of the Jews? He's the son of God? Look at him! He's a lousy Carpenter! He's a bastard, his father never married his mother! Look at that long hair and those bare feet! When's the last time he took a bath? And look at all these funny morons running around after him. What should we call them? Jesusists? Christers? Jesusians? Anyway, something that'll make him and them feel as stupid as they look! Hahahahaha! You should have voted for Centurion X but noooo...haha look he's gonna die, they're gonna nail him up, I can't wait, this is gonna be so great
That's the single worst metaphor I have ever encountered.
If we don't dump Trump, say hello to Clinton's supreme court picks + institutionalized corruption.
Totally disagree. Trump is probably the only one who can/will beat the Red Queen.
Don't dump Trump!
She leads with the people who are willing to show up.
Yesterday, "remain in the EU" led with the people "who are willing to show up".
Then the Brits had their biggest election turn out in at least a generation.
Chuck: Why the death of conservatism? If Trump gets keelhauled in November, and if the UK economy sputters in the face of Brexit, why wouldn't that mean the Death of Trumpism?
Chuck, stop being stupid. The demographic numbers that are bad for Trump are just as bad for Republicans, period.
Are you saying that conservatism is just for white folks? I'd say not.
What has what I think or what you say got to do with anything? Non-whites vote how they vote, and statistically, in the U.S. they vote for Dems and big government. That's just a fact, Chuck, not subject to manipulation by your cucky thought-waves about "natural conservatives".
Populism/Socialism/Nationalism have failed wherever they've been tried (lately, Venezuela, Greece and of course Zimbabwe).
And yet, the example of these chronic failures does not prevent the Americans who like Dems and big guv from voting for Dems and big guv. This group includes most non-whites groups, by large margins.
While marketeering internationalism -- with a very healthy dose of conservative economics -- keeps succeeding pretty much everywhere it is given a chance. Hong Kong. Singapore. Switzerland. The United States of America!
Chuck, that doesn't change the record of how people have voted and are voting. Jesus, you're dense. People vote how they vote. And in the United States, non-whites, with a few demographic exceptions, vote solidly Democratic. And have done so since long before Trump appeared on the scene. Cucks are willfully delusional about why that is. Trump will probably do no worse among non-whites than another Republican candidate would. That's why your crowing about how bad the demographics are for Trump, as if its strictly a Trump problem, makes you look retarded, if not crazy.
Chuck ( b-b-b-b bad to the bone ! )sez:
blah blah.....
And, as you know and as I want everyone else to know, what I said to you was that you wouldn't do that in front of me. At least you wouldn't do it for long. You are too old, to get into it with somebody like me.
I hoped you thought better of it and changed your ways. If you are still going to go on with these personal attacks in some new passive-aggressive way, I'd be happy to re-state my offer to rearrange your dental work.
Good golly miss molly ! Is this the same Chuck who wanted Corey locked up for squeezing the reporters arm? Now threatening an old man, again? Gonna mess him up bad?
Careful, Big C. Those Drs. know all the pressure points !
.
So, Chuck, you get this badasssness on the mean streets? Take a few and give a few? Win some, lose some? Run with some gangs, run from some gangs?
Ima make it a point to stay outta yo' hood, bro. haha!
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