October 4, 2015

The new IBD/TIPP poll has Ben Carson in the lead — with 24% — and Trump at 17%.

How incredibly strange... and this follows on Carson's much-noticed statement that he wouldn't accept a Muslim as President. Can it be that what seemed like an unforced error actually helped his cause? Trump boosted his cause by making statements that look — to mainstream commentators — as though they outright disqualify him from being taken seriously. Perhaps it's not Trump's style and bluster that have put him in the lead, but the substance itself, the very substance that horrifies moderates. Because here's Carson, with his completely different demeanor and tone, vaulting ahead saying something that anybody serious was supposed to know you just don't say.

Carson has also been citing Hitler. Asked why the other day, he said:
"If people don't speak up for what they believe, then other people will change things without them having a voice. Hitler changed things there and nobody protested. Nobody provided any opposition to him, and that's what facilitated his rise."
The reporter who asked the question prompted Carson to say that Obama is like Hitler, but he said, "no":
"I'm saying that in a situation where people do not express themselves, bad things can happen. That's the main problem that I have with political correctness. It keeps people from expressing themselves. And it's the expression, the conversation, that leads to solutions. Keeping everybody silent, while you change the fabric of the society, is not what America was supposed to be about."

37 comments:

Expat(ish) said...

For some reason that made me think of Office Space: "the Nazis had pieces of flare that they made the Jews wear."

-XC

Wilbur said...

Gee, who'd a thunk it? Say things that a majority of people believe are true, however inconvenient they are to the elites, and your popularity goes up.

I do believe Trump's bluster and feistiness played a large role in his poll ratings. Many people found it refreshing. But his views on immigration are what shot him to the top.

Carson/Fiorina vs. Clinton/Gardner? Bring it on. Sanders/Warren? Bring it on. Biden/Michelle? Bring it on.

If the GOP goes mushy and nominates another nice guy whose turn it may be - think Dole, McCain, Romney - they'll lose again. If you're afraid to stick the Reverend Wright up Obama's ass and twist to make him howl, your own party's voters don't trust you to represent them.

Rae said...

Isn't there a German word for "speaking what everyone is thinking, but are too afraid to say"?

tim in vermont said...

It seems like it a self-evident truth that if you completely destroy an economy, for example. I said completely, not the sub-optimal performance we have been getting out of ours, but say we suffered a hyperinflation and huge unemployment, some guy is going to come along and promise to fix everything and people are going to give that person, probably a man, a lot of leeway. Too much leeway.

But everything Carson says goes through the filter of invidious interpretation that liberals listen to all conservatives with.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Ipsos/Reuters Poll (October 2):

Donald Trump continues to lead among Republicans, currently with 32% of Republican support (up from 30% last week).

Ben Carson remains in 2nd at 12% among Republicans. Carson has lost some ground in the latest poll.

Jeb Bush remains in 3rd with 10%.

Carly Fiorina has held her gains from after the Republican debate, currently at 8% among Republicans, but has made no more progress.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

Perhaps it's not Trump's style and bluster that have put him in the lead, but the substance itself, the very substance that horrifies moderates.

PC is newsspeak, designed to prevent people from expressing crimethought.

I fail to recall the national referendum where the majority agreed to let in millions and millions of illegal immigrants, profoundly changing the culture and depressing wages for the poor and middle class.

In fact, some of us remember that the 1986 amnesty was a deal where the illegal immigrants then in the U.S. received amnesty, but the laws concerning illegal immigration were supposed to be strictly enforced. A deal quickly abandoned with the connivance of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce so that they could continue to employ illegals, suppress wages, and avoid various employment taxes.

Paco Wové said...

" ...moderates."

Lucien said...

I hope Dr. Carson was talking about some time after Hitler became Chancellor, because to say no one opposed him before then would betray a very limited grasp of German domestic politics between the Treaty of Versailles and 1933.

MaxedOutMama said...

A bubble of irrationality has formed in DC, and yes, the voters are looking for someone who is not native to that bubble and will not be seduced into living in it.

Carson is impressive because he's a very, very intelligent man and he is also a very, very respectfully altruistic man. His programs to help poor kids in schools were successful, funded by himself and his wife, and started a long time ago. In rural country lingo, he walks the walk.

Carson is not mean - he refuses to react out of anger (below is a link to explain why and more about the scholarships):
http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2015/apr/13/carson-honors-scholars/298340/

Yes, his comment about the Muslim president helped him tremendously. When CAIR continuously advocates ditching the First Amendment, it is not unreasonable or irrational to suspect that many a sincere Muslim would have difficulty taking a vow to defend that Constitution.

I don't agree with what she did, but I do respect Kim Davis for her attempt to stand up for what she believes to be right. But even if she had every other qualification, I would not vote for her presidency, because the first and essential duty of the president is to govern and defend that Constitution. If that's a problem for a person, it doesn't mean that the person may not be a sterling citizen, but that person is not able to be president.

Because Ben Carson lives his religion, he respects the religious beliefs of others. He thinks they mean something.

Michael K said...

"because to say no one opposed him before then would betray a very limited grasp of German domestic politics between the Treaty of Versailles and 1933."

No, I think you missed his implication that too many people did not see the danger and act as he is acting.

It is no coincidence that Orban is supported by 70% of voters in Hungary while the EU mandarins accuse him of being too "nativist."

Hungary's prime minister — who some now call the "creeping dictator" of Europe, and who espouses an immigration policy of "Hungary for Hungarians" — was once, a long time ago, a star of the Western media and a pro-democracy activist who helped bring down communism in Eastern Europe.

Back in the 1980s, he was an idealistic law student and head of a nascent political party called Fidesz (Alliance of Young Democrats) that refused to accept members over age 35.


Saying what the voters believe, especially if they are voters who have not been imported by a political party, gets the elites all upset.

With this measure, the government can start enforcing draconian new laws that criminalize crossing the border without proper documents. If refugees manage to cross into Hungary after the border is sealed, they will be charged with serious felonies and imprisoned until either their asylum claim is processed or until the criminal charges are resolved.

OMG ! He sounds like Donald Trump !

Phil 314 said...

Isn't Trump an HBO series?

I wonder who will play him in season 2.

chickelit said...

Meanwhile, according to the same polsters, Fiorina is tanking. It makes you wonder whether something's up with these "here's what others think" nudges.

Che Dolf said...

Perhaps it's not Trump's style and bluster that have put him in the lead, but the substance itself, the very substance that horrifies moderates.

It's fun to watch all the Pauline Kael pundits squeak to each other in fear and confusion. You would understand the world better if you ventured outside of your hugbox.

Trump said a popular thing. Then he demonstrated he meant what he said by telling the press to fuck itself when they helpfully challenged him.

Trump: "I will build a wall at the Mexican border."
Press: "That would be evil and impractical. Diversity is strength."
Trump: "Illegal immigrants are rapey undesirables, and I will deport them."
Press: "You just made yourself unelectable."
Trump: "LOL."

Trump leads because voters agree with him, and they believe him because he doesn't flinch. He may turn out to be as disingenuous as the rest of the political class, but he understands the game better than the pros do.

Paul Snively said...

Lucien: I hope Dr. Carson was talking about some time after Hitler became Chancellor, because to say no one opposed him before then would betray a very limited grasp of German domestic politics between the Treaty of Versailles and 1933.

It also somehow ignores 15 assassination attempts, one of which is even famous. We know who von Stauffenberg, Niemöller, and Bonhoeffer were because of their opposition (and, let's face it, because they died for it).

Still, Carson is only guilty of imprecision. His general point—which I think overlaps with yours—that an electorate insufficiently familiar with Nazi doctrine and suffering under the combined yokes of the Treaty of Versailles and the Weimar hyperinflation happily elected an obvious demagogue who promptly made himself a dictator, because he promised to fix it all and had a conveniently explanatory world view, seems sound enough.

Of course, if you really want to be depressed, The World at War is just the thing for it.

Once written, twice... said...

Run, hillbillies, RUN!

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Politically Incorrect talk is so much worse that all the lies that constantly fall out of Hillary's mouth. Considering Islam is a veneer of a religion wrapped around a totalitarian political ideology, it is incompatible with our form of government. shhhh - you can't say that out loud.


A&L will go for Hillary.

Birkel said...

"Once written, twice..." thinks urbanites will fair well when all those hillbillies in California, Colorado, Pennsylvania and North Carolina shrug their shoulders and give up on D.C.

Good luck.

Cog said...

“That's the main problem that I have with political correctness. It keeps people from expressing themselves. And it's the expression, the conversation, that leads to solutions.”

Carson’s insight helps explain his, Trump's, and Fiorina's success thus far.

Today's elites are defenders of pc, pretending to be champions of justice and the oppressed. Actually, they are just the opposite. Having taken over nearly all communication outlets, they then corrupt our language and cultivate our ignorance. The better to manipulate the masses.

Carson has talked plainly about Muslims, Trump about illegal aliens, and Fiorina about PP’sbody parts harvesting scheme. In each case they said what people had seen for themselves, in spite of the media elites' attempt to corrupt discussions on those issues through their enforcement of pc.

Big Mike said...

If what Carson says truly "horrifies moderates," then they're not as moderate as they are pretending to be.

Michael K said...

"Carson’s insight helps explain his, Trump's, and Fiorina's success thus far. "

Yes and this is an interesting political season. Much more interesting than the self destructive 2012 primaries where Gingrich savaged Romney and gave the Democrats all the ammunition for the summer offensive he didn't respond to.

These are real, as opposed to political, issues they are talking about and people are interested. Even jobs and economics are abstract to many voters who wouldn't understand how economies work. They do understand illegal immigration and abortion and Muslim invasions.

Now, somebody is talking about it in terms they can understand.

Sebastian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sebastian said...


"Isn't there a German word for "speaking what everyone is thinking, but are too afraid to say"?"

Scheissaufdeckung.

"Can it be that what seemed like an unforced error actually helped his cause?"

Well yes, yes it can. Particularly since 1. no serious Muslim could lead the U.S. as presently constituted; 2. the MSM stereotypically misreported his actual position; and 3. it is refreshing to hear someone sometime expressing actual opposition to actual Islam.

"If what Carson says truly "horrifies moderates," then they're not as moderate as they are pretending to be."

Correct. Most moderates are Progs faking it.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Perhaps it's not Trump's style and bluster that have put him in the lead, but the substance itself, the very substance that horrifies moderates.

I think so. But, note, that goves someone something under 30% of the Republican primary vote and has twice as many people against him as for him.

By the way, Hotler did have opposition and im numerous frequent elections in the early 1930s never came close to winning a majority. But Germany had a bad constitution.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Hitler managed to get 36.8% in the presidential election of 1932 (one avenue to power he tried) to 53% for Hindenberg and 10.2% for the Communist, Thalmann.

In the November 1932 Reichstag election,The Nazis got 196 seats (33.09%) while the Social Democrats (SPD) won 121 seats (20.43%) and the Communists (KPD) won 100
(16.86%).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1932

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler%27s_rise_to_power

Sammy Finkelman said...

All sorts of people saw the danger. They did stop Hitler. Several times. But they had to stop him every time. Hitler only had to gain office once.

Owen said...

Sammy Finkelman: great comments, especially the asymmetry of the effort needed to prevail. Those blocking Hitler had to win every time, while he only had to win once. Tyrants and terrorists; same problem. Maybe because they are very similar creatures. Both use terror, but the tyrant plans to inhabit indefinitely the husk of the government he took over, while the terrorist hasn't gotten quite that organized. ISIS is sort of hybrid, maybe: a quasi-stable regime run by terrorists using terrorist methods?

The Godfather said...

Why are we talking about Hitler?

We have three candidates for the Republican presidential nomination who are not politicians and have never held political office. They are at or near the top of the polls. Among the three, one is Black and another is Female. The Black is the anti-Obama and the Female is the anti-Hillary. We also have a Latino Senator not far from the top of the pack.

We've lost or soon will lose candidates who are or were successful, conservative governors.

In 1860 we elected a President who had served a single term in Congress and had lost every other major political office for which he'd run. Lincoln won the Presidency because the world was changing.

Is the world changing now? Do we want a successor to Obama? Hillary!, Bernie!, or Joe! are all available. Do we want to consolidate the changes Obama made and correct some of his obvious mistakes? Bush can do that, so can Christie, so can Trump, so can several others. Or do we want to change direction and undo as much of the Obama legacy as possible? Who can do that?

Unknown said...

MaxedOutMama: "...the first and essential duty of the president is to govern and defend that Constitution."

Some of us believe that the U.S. Supreme Court is no longer operating consistently within the plain English of the Constitution. This has happened clearly, unambiguously, and deliberately in the past, corrupted by the POTUS, and the current trend is merely a continuation. That is not defending the Constitution. Restoring the Constitution to original language and purpose would oddly and by definition be not-defending the Constitution (interpreted by the body tasked with that function).

eric said...

I'm glad to see Carson doing well.

As long as Carson, Trump and Fiorina keep dominating the polls and combined make for more than or almost 50%, I'm a happy man this political cycle.

I'm tired of the Hugh Hewitts and the Michael Medveds dictating to us what is practical and what is impractical and we always have to follow their practical advice.

That's taken our country pretty far down the road to destruction. At this point, it's just a holding pattern we are in, as reversing the damage is nigh impossible.

cubanbob said...

Considering there are fifteen candidates running for the Republican nominee that Trump and Carson are getting such numbers is impressive. Even Fiorina's numbers are impressive. Compare and contrast to Hillary!'s numbers in a two candidate race. The RNC ought to be nervous and so should the DNC. Trump, Carson and Fiorina have crossover appeal and all three of them are far more accomplished and have far cleaner backgrounds than Hillary!. So far Slow Joe hasn't announced, The Bern will get the communist vote and the Children's' Crusade vote which enough to lose 45 states as it stands today.

Martin said...

Ben Carson did not say that he wouldn't "accept" a Muslim president. He said he would not "support" a Muslim for president.

There's a big difference.

Craig Howard said...

Gosh. all these conclusions from one poll. Oh, my!

jr565 said...

Carson isn't going to stay in the front for that long either. Both he and Trump will have their time to lead the pack. But then they'll fade. Carson might still work as a VP though.

Moneyrunner said...

"Moderate?" I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Moneyrunner said...

What interested me is that the people in the news media don't have clue about what's happening; especially to them. They have set the agenda for public debate for so long that it's simply one of the 'givens." They get to re-interpret the words that others utter. They created the arena of acceptable discourse; anyone who ventured outside of that arena was destroyed as public figure. All it took was a word, like "moderate" as Ann used it to imply that people who say things that Ann doesn't define as moderate are ... what? Radical? They don't realize that with the advent of Trump, and now Carson and Fiorina that's no longer true. They still believe they own the debate arena and congratulate their peers who are frantically trying to keep everyone inside. In the words of the old spiritual "Free at last."

OGWiseman said...

Referencing Hitler is "out of the mainstream" for good reasons--It's just not a helpful or useful thing to do. But the rest of that? The part about political correctness limiting expression? That strikes me as common sense.

PatD said...

Don't believe every poll that comes out, especially if the media pushes it.

Trump has hardly spent a dime on his campaign, so far. He has used his fame and fortune to suck the oxygen out of his competitors' campaigns. We switched from Fox to CNN and it has been Trump over and over again. Are they trying to kill him by over-exposure? I don't think it works that way.

Here's what's happening. The folks gave the GOP the house in 2010 and added the Senate in 2012. What did they get in return? Was Obamacare defunded? Did illegal immigration stop? The list is long and painful, but the bottom line is the folks got nothing from the GOP. They turned out to be a bunch of spineless halfwits who caved the moment Obama said "boo!".

Trump enters the race and makes illegal immigration an election issue. The folk hate illegal immigration but had no way to express it. Trump gave them the way. Every time an illegal kills a US citizen, and it has happened thousands of times since 9/11, Trump can make an example of it, and it will resonate with Americans.

Ben Carson has gotten a boost in the polls by telling the truth about Islam; it is incompatible with the constitution.

Is it surprising that Trump and Carson are polling so well? Not if you understand the cold fury of the base towards the GOP elite.