December 21, 2013

"Obamacare Is Falling Apart Before Our Eyes."

Writes James C. Capretta in The Weekly Standard.

I said it back in October 2012:
"It's a slow-motion topple. We just haven't seen it go down yet."

58 comments:

St. George said...

Wrong....Obama and the Blue State Model are Falling Apart.

It was a good long run from 1933, but now something else is coming.

JRoberts said...

Professor, a question I've had over the last 10 weeks:

Do you think Justice Roberts foresaw this "falling apart" when he changed his ruling on Obamacare?

Ann Althouse said...

Look at the fuller context of the Bloggingheads episode from which I took that clip. That's the point I'm discussing. I've been saying all along that Roberts may have ingeniously set up this slow collapse, but as far as foreseeing it (as a consequence of the decision he believed was legally correct), I do think that is a much easier conclusion to reach, and I'd say that he did.

Bob Boyd said...

"And since I’m in charge, obviously we screwed it up.” - Barack Obama yesterday

He was talking about the ACA rollout, but....

Scott said...

When things collapse in government, it doesn't mean that they get swept away.

Detroit started to collapse in 1967. People have been predicting its revival for decades, but in spite of new buildings, casino gambling, people movers, and other spending, it still hasn't happened.

And of course there's North Korea. You'd think that since 1953 they would have gotten their act together.

ACA is collapsing, but because it's a signature program of the Democrats, it will not be replaced with anything better until the Democrats are voted out of power. There won't be an opportunity for that to happen unless veto-proof majorities of Republicans are elected in the House and Senate in 2014.

What worries me is the likelihood that the collapse of ACA will be a catalyst for the collapse of government generally into naked tyranny and rule by fiat. Zimbabwe and Venezuela are models for this. I think progressives are actually looking forward to it happening.

Rusty said...

Gaddamnit Alhouse you're still a hot lookin' broad.

Anyway. I'd have liked to hear the rest of that debate.

I think he may have to put the car in reverse to get out of this ditch.

traditionalguy said...

The deliberate sabotage of Medical Care System is no surprise. The socialist elite MO has been to create a crisis so we must on to create a socialist solution to a crisis by Central Planning Bureaucracy in DC.

The State of Virginia has swung to a socialist electoral majority because this is a known strategy in the DC metropolitan area.

Look at the planned useless old passenger train system on new tracks replacing the modern system of automobiles on roads.

Look at the useless Windmill Farms and Solar Panel Farms replacing the modern carbon based fuels power generation system.

The strategy goes: First destroy what is working. Second replace it with a guaranteed failure. Third create an heroic Socialist Bureaucracy to fix it.

The dirty secret is that we are being hamstrung into suicidal failures by intellectual elites that worship the "inevitable" killing fields of Robert Malthus.

Diogenes of Sinope said...

They are breaking the current system, to convince the public that government regulations, rules and control will fix health care.

Diogenes of Sinope said...

RULE 3: “Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.” Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty.

alan markus said...

"And since I’m in charge, obviously we screwed it up.” - Barack Obama yesterday

At least he didn't use the wrong metaphor ala Colin Powell - “The Pottery Barn rule: You break it, you own it.” Back in 2004 it was noted that real gay men knew that wasn't the Pottery Barn policy.

Ann Althouse said...

"Anyway. I'd have liked to hear the rest of that debate."

At the end of the clip, there's a button to click to watch the whole thing. Back up to about 8:00 for the whole Obamacare part.

Martha said...

Roberts should have killed the ACA when the Supreme Court had the chance. This slow death is inflicting irreparable harm to the citizens of the United States.

PB Reader said...

Just as FDR's actions and anticipation of his actions before his election in the 1930's deepened and extended the Great Depression, the same thing has occurred with Obama. The expectation of him being elected (or someone like him) likely contributed greatly to the liquidity crunch of 2007/2008, and his actions since being elected have not been positive at home or abroad.

pm317 said...

Fine, you predicted it then but was your reason the same as it is now? Nobody, not even you thought they were this incompetent. It is not yet toppling because of the law, it is toppling because of the IT clusterfuck.

Scott said...

Whenever progressive shit doesn't work, they always blame the implementation and not the concept. It's always easier to defend something that can't be proven.

pm317 said...

At the end of the clip, there's a button to click to watch the whole thing. Back up to about 8:00 for the whole Obamacare part.

I listened to it. Thank you for explaining Roberts' position so well. I think the penalty does go up quite substantially in the subsequent years. But as I said, we have not even reached that stage of the Obamacare death.

EDH said...

Actually, isn't it the healthcare system that's falling apart?

Hector said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hector said...

I don't think it is falling apart. Conservatives are once again exhibiting the empistemic closure problem. They are going to be like the Romney supporters blindsided be his loss.

lemondog said...

So did the 4 other justices who concurred with Roberts opinion also anticipate the ‘slow motion topple?’

If they had, would they have changed their vote?

Did Roberts caution against the possible consequences?

“And since I’m in charge, obviously we screwed it up.” - Barack Obama yesterday

Oh. BO, say it isn’t soooooo. Where are my sackcloth and ashes! I was hoping he would accuse the Repubs of their usual Machiavellian stealth or at least mischievous gremlins.

Original Mike said...

"Actually, isn't it the healthcare system that's falling apart?"

This has been the root of my opposition to ObamaCare from the beginning. They have done NOTHING to address the strains on the system. All they've done is pile more weight onto a creaking edifice. Millions will suffer and not an insignificant number will die. What they have done, in their smug, holier-than-thou arrogance, is immoral.

Curious George said...

"pm317 said...
Fine, you predicted it then but was your reason the same as it is now? Nobody, not even you thought they were this incompetent. It is not yet toppling because of the law, it is toppling because of the IT clusterfuck."

T he IT clusterfuck had nothing to do with millions loosing their insurance or doctors because of the law, or the huge premium increases because of the law. The IT clusterfuck is really the least of their problems. Sooner or later it will get fixed, and then the reality will hit all.

pm317 said...

@Curious George..

agree, my wording was ambiguous. But if there were no IT clusterfuck, the cancelled guys would have had somewhere to go and there would not have been the furor there was and majority of the enrollment would have happened, some/many would have experienced sicker shock.. it would have proceeded to the other real problems with the law.

Original Mike said...

I think it's fair to say the IT clusterfuck was a surprise. I have a low opinion of government competence, yet I'm surprised they screwed the pooch this badly. The cancelled policies, the increased premiums, and the loss of access (even though you have "coverage") were widely predicted from the beginning.
It was the core of the opposition to the bill.

Drago said...

Scott: " I think progressives are actually looking forward to it happening."

They are not just looking forward to it happening, they are calling for increased rule by executive fiat.

Original Mike said...

Not to mention the budget-busting hit to the federal coffers.

Everything the opponents said appears to be coming true. You know what's not coming true? The uninsured are not getting insured. Where are the 50 million?

lemondog said...

This has been the root of my opposition to ObamaCare from the beginning. They have done NOTHING to address the strains on the system.

Do I assume you mean both the private and Medicare/Medicaid healthcare systems?

I am interested in what you see could have been done to strength the healthcare system and avoid the current and approaching calamities, IT and otherwise.

Original Mike said...

@lemondog: Medicare is going broke, yet ObamaCare doubles down on the top-down, government command-and-control structure of health care. It failed for the Soviet economy and it is failing for us. We need to drop the 3rd party payer structure for routine medical care. Insurance needs to be returned to a true insurance structure. You pay the routine, maintenance stuff, the insurer pays for the catastrophes. Otherwise, it's not "insurance", it's prepaid health care and that economic model does not work, no matter how much you want it to.

Drago said...

Original Mike: " think it's fair to say the IT clusterfuck was a surprise."

It was only a bit of "surprise" to those of us on the "outside".

For those on the "inside", the disaster was clear all along based upon the impossible to deliver, politically driven business requirement CONTRADICTIONS!

The developers were provided no explicit (since it would be traceable) directions on how to proceed other than vague and implicit directives regarding outcomes.

The administration knew it could not deliver a politically palatable "solution" which did not compromise and make apparent every one of the numerous obama and admin lies.

Think about it: The back end of the system which was supposed to be built to link the insurance companies with the executive departments WAS NEVER EVEN BUILT, yet it was to be the heart of the "system", the part that was to allow an electronic "conversation" between the departments which would provide the verification of the applicants relevant info (income level, other special considerations, etc) and the insurance company which would match up the profile with an appropriate list of plans from which an applicant would select an option with the federal gov't calculated subsidy included.

Since obama and all his pals had lied every step of the way (you can keep your plan, keep your doctor, spend less money for a more robust plan and other magical lefty thinking), they couldn't allow that.

So they didn't.

Oh yeah, there was no security built into the system either, and convicted felons can be hired and access all your most precious personal information.

No, this came as a surprise to no one in the admin.

All of this was intended.

Of course, these rocket scientists thought they could do all this in a way to simply blame the insurance companies paving the way immediately to single payer.

That's what the admin screwed up.

And that's what is most "impressive" about the obambi failure. They couldn't even design a purposeful failure and attribute blame properly.

And that ladies and gentlemen, failure and attribution of blame to someone else, is the single most important democrat/lefty skillset the libs possess.

Drago said...

Original Mike: " Otherwise, it's not "insurance", it's prepaid health care and that economic model does not work, no matter how much you want it to."

The left sees this whole issue as a political problem, not an economic one.

The only valid question from the left's point of view is: does the action/policy increase our political power.

If it does, then the actual economic impact is irrelevant.

Irrelevant.

The left will be happy to have the pie contract as long as they get to run an ever increasing percentage of it.

Rusty said...

Hector said...
I don't think it is falling apart.

No. No. Of course not. What is taking place is all part of a well thought out comprehensive plan.

Original Mike said...

@Drago - I haven't yet come around to the "make it fail, move on to single payer" explanation. It's hard to believe they are that devious. But you make a good case.

Original Mike said...

If you postulate that the website failure was purposeful, you have to also explain the failure of several of the state websites.

n.n said...

It doesn't address the issues: affordability and availability, which vary by economic regions. It is designed to obfuscate stagnant or recessive economies, and to preserve the peace in highly financed and subsidized districts.

tim in vermont said...

This isn't really funny. This could crash the health insurance companies at a time when there is no alternative.

Original Mike said...

No, it is certainly not funny.

SteveR said...

All is proceeding as I have foreseen. Single Payer Universal, Government Run Health Care

tim in vermont said...

"Single Payer Universal, Government Run Health Care"

I don't know how that is going to happen. Are the voters going to vote in huge numbers of Democrats as a reward for all of this destruction? I think that more likely, the bill is going to get re-opened and dealt with on a bipartisan basis when the scale of the disaster becomes clear.

Original Mike said...

The voters are stupid, Tim. That's how it happens.

Drago said...

tim: "I don't know how that is going to happen. Are the voters going to vote in huge numbers of Democrats as a reward for all of this destruction?"

You have to look at the actions here in the context of all the policy initiatives of the obambi-ites.

What's the second biggest initiative for the last year or so next to ACA?

Immigration.

The reasons are obvious.

The dems intent is to get 30 to 50 million low-educated 3rd-world mentality immigrants citizenship as quickly as possible, throw all the "freebies" at them knowing that would essentially ensure dem dominance "forever".

What the dems didn't count on was that the obamacare debacle would supercede everything else.

Of course, at this point in time I have basically zero confidence that Boehner and Ryan will hold the line on immigration.

They don't call the GOP the stupid party for nothing.

Gahrie said...

The voters are stupid

Not most of them. Many of them are simply ignorant, and willing to vote for whomever promises the most goodies.

A large percentage of slightly over half of the voters are literally hysterical when it comes to the "rights" to kill their baby and get free birth control.

The Democrats simply pander to these two groups in order to win elections.

Drago said...

Tim: "This could crash the health insurance companies at a time when there is no alternative."

LOL

As intended.

BTW, there is always the same alternative sitting out there.....gov't run single payer.

No government failure is ever large enough in the eyes of the left to negate even more government as the answer.

Quite the opposite in fact.

SteveR said...

I don't know how that is going to happen.

We already know that the evil capitalists and the evil republicans aren't the answer. We just need another and better government system. Let's not worry ourselves with quality or cost. I'm 56 with a chronic medical condition, I expect I'll die before this all blows up. Not the ACA, the whole ponzi/debt scheme. We have the natural resources to avoid it but not the intelligence.

Scott said...

The population of Canada is about 35 million, and single payer barely works.

Even if it is possible to smash 330 million Americans into the single payer template, it isn't going to be pretty. Most people won't be able to avoid the big question: "Why is my government doing this to me?"

Original Mike said...

"Not most of them. Many of them are simply ignorant, and willing to vote for whomever promises the most goodies."

Point conceded. We're still screwed.

Gahrie said...

The population of Canada is about 35 million, and single payer barely works.

And a significant reason it does was the pressure relief provided by our old health system to thousands of Canadians every year. Another is the premium we pay for drugs so systems like Canada's don't have to.

Original Mike said...

"And a significant reason it does was the pressure relief provided by our old health system to thousands of Canadians every year. Another is the premium we pay for drugs so systems like Canada's don't have to."

The pressure relief valve for medical imaging, surgery and radiotherapy with ObamaCare is going to be Central America and India. On the invention of new drugs, the world is screwed.

Rusty said...

tim in vermont said...
This isn't really funny. This could crash the health insurance companies at a time when there is no alternative.

This might not be a bad thing. The market could start fresh.The market can find alternatives to our current dilemma.

wildswan said...

"[The voters are] willing to vote for whomever promises the most goodies"

In this case the voters had their goodies taken from them. They had fairly good health insurance they could afford. It was taken away. Worse insurance was offered. The voters couldn't sign up for the worse insurance. The voters couldn't afford the premiums for the worse insurance. The voters couldn't get the system to accept their payments for the worse insurance. The system lost the voters' applications for the worse insurance. After New Year's Day, the voters had nothing for insurance. The President came back from swimming and sunning in Hawaii and said his plan, namely Obamacare was helping voters and where it wasn't the voters had an exemption because Obamacare, Obama said was a man-made disaster. Like Katrina, only man-made. Obama was the man who made this man-made disaster known as Obamacare. Obama explained that the voters lost their insurance because it was a cheap scam and the cheap scam was being replaced by worse insurance which was, somehow, not a cheap scam.
Clinton had his Monica, Bush had his Katrina and the Democrats have their Obama. If you like your disaster, you can keep your disaster.

Melissa said...

I agree with Hector. I don't think it's a disaster. I'm not defending the roll out problems, but I'm not surprised by them either given that one party has been trying to sabotage implementation of this law since it passed. And there will inevitably always be things about ACA to complain about, given the nature of the world and that people like to complain. But I'm betting that once the smoke clears, in a year or two, we'll see that, on balance, it's been good for public health, the national budget, and the economy.

There, I've said it. Go ahead and hate me, haters.

SteveR said...

Wow Melissa, you say something that uninformed and solicit hate? More like confusion, who could possibly buy your screed that republicans have been trying to sabotage the ACA? That's funny. I'd love a good explanation, you can even cut and paste, but please no links.

Original Mike said...

"There, I've said it. Go ahead and hate me, haters."

Childish.

Hyphenated American said...

Melissa, can you elaborate on the sabotage thing. Obama had complete unlimited control over the set up of obamacare. Are you claiming he sabotaged it?

tim in vermont said...

Yeah, I would like to hear about sabotage too. I am calling BS.

lemondog said...

In October Nancy Pelosi said GOP 'sabotage' hindering implementation of Obamacare

They are withholding the information

and

Democrats are thrilled with the program.

UMass Economist Gerald Friedman says: "$592 billion first year savings with ‘Medicare for All’

His Professional activities included drafting financing plans for single-payer health care systems for Maryland, Massachusetts and the United States.

Well, I'm convinced......

lemondog said...

How can you doubt a politician and an academic?!!!

Original Mike said...

"Melissa, can you elaborate on the sabotage thing. Obama had complete unlimited control over the set up of obamacare."

You won't get a response. Notwithstanding that the claim is a Democrat talking point, it is ludicrous for the reason you state.

PackerBronco said...

The law IS falling apart, but since Obama has no intention of being hamstrung by the law as written, he'll just do whatever he wants and dare anyone to stop him.