November 6, 2012

Romney trouncing Obama in Ohio.

So far.

UPDATE: There are questions about whether these are real.

170 comments:

Joe P. said...

What is the source of this data? Exit polling?

Russ said...

Surely this can't be real, since no polls have closed as of yet.

It MIGHT be early voting results, but would that suggest that in some counties nobody voted early? That seems unrealistic as well.

Paul Zrimsek said...

Early-voting results are worthless for the same reason (self-selection) that online polls are worthless.

Conserve Liberty said...

@AA: Per Ed MorrisseyThere are questions about Gannett having posted these totals on their Cinncinnati.com website.

Update: Gannett says this was a chart cteated with "dummy data" to test their system. Gannett "regrets the error."

X said...

Inga said...
SURPRISE!

Scott M said...

Don't get cocky, kid.

machine said...

Is this because of voter suppression, or in spite of it?

harrogate said...

Wow. Are you not at all interested in authenticity at this point?

Paul Zrimsek said...

Iowahawk says at the polls in Chicago the hearses are lined up around the block.

Scott M said...

machine...you should keep your cards closer to your vest until we know for sure who won.

virgil xenophon said...

@Paul Zermisk/

And people who don't know Chicago think Iowahawk is joking..lol

edutcher said...

Your sweet lips to God's ears, Madame.

Paul said...

"Wow. Are you not at all interested in authenticity at this point?"

The very first comment was asking about the source, and those to follow were questioning it.

How stupid are you?

Sorun said...

Philly may be the most interesting place to watch today.

Perhaps that place needs the cleansing effect of a national spotlight.

harrogate said...

Horribleif true.

Mike said...

Early voting favored Democrats historically, and last time Obama went into election day with about 80,000 votes ahead of McCain. People who voted on election day gave McCain a majority but it wasn't enough to overcome the early votes.

This time Romney goes into today with an 80,000 vote lead in Ohio. Evangelicals, high school volunteers, Texans and Alabamans have canvassed the State repeatedly and every Republican who requested an absentee ballot has been called -- repeatedly -- to make sure they returned their ballot.

In addition, 200,000 voters have been removed from the rolls, usually because they died (and thus would vote Democrat if left on the rolls) or moved out of state. These demographic factors are working with the economic trends (coal under attack by this admin., and fracking in its cross-hairs for 2013) to give the Romney campaign Ohio.

Keep your eye on this state, for it will foretell the overall results. If Ohio and either VA or WI go Romney early, this will not be like 2000. It will be like 1980 and the wave will crest across the land with some surprising results, like Iowa or Minnesota going red as well.

Lem said...

I went to vote this morning and it was a lively place... no lines at the polling place but a huge line for gas just down a few blocks.

I don't expect NJ to go for Romney but the irony is inescapable.

You just know who would be getting blamed if the show were in the other foot... if a republican were in power.

harrogate said...

Paul,

The comment was for Althouse, not the commenters. It didn't take much to see this source is worth less than a three dollar bill. It certainly didn't take commenters "questioning" it. The post smacks of shrillness.

deborah said...

Many Romney supporters, like my mom, would not have trusted the Democrats not to mess with their mailed-in vote.

Inga said...

X, surprise! It's bogus.

AF said...

Early votes not yet counted in Ohio
A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday…
Read Article

Saint Croix said...

Gannett says this was a chart cteated with "dummy data" to test their system. Gannett "regrets the error."

Yet they still leave it up? Weird.

Shanna said...

No polls today until the one that actually counts!

deborah said...

Rove was pushing this 'info' on Fox last night.

Mike said...

AF, my information comes from published reports yesterday and Michael Barone's interview on radio yesterday. The 80,000 vote lead in Ohio is from raw numbers of returned ballots requested by party affiliation. This public information and while and R ballot does not always mean and R vote, they usually do, and the reversal of trends from 2008 is what I found interesting. The maxim "Early votes favor D and election day votes favor R" has been upended by the Romney ground game. They learned a lot from the WI recalls and you may be surprised at who really wins the "ground game" in the end.

Colonel Angus said...

Horribleif true.

Quite likely untrue. These so called voter intimidation stories abound every election and can never be proved.

Lem said...

If Romney looses Ohio by one vote, I'm going to blame Meade ;)

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Yogi Berra is the wisest man in the world.

Steve said...

I don't believe it.

Cuyahoga at 113,373 Obama and 127,570 Romney is absolute fantacy.

That said my polling place in rural and conservative Ohio was swamped. The parking lot was full and I have never seen it even half full. Lines were moving right along though. One precinct had a 20 minute wait.

MadisonMan said...

Instead of talking about the election, I'll talk about someone I know who is becoming a grandmother today for the first time, and she is over the moon about it.

That's what is really important, not this election.

TWM said...

If nothing else it counters the Dem spin coming out that it's already over.

It's not. So conservatives still need to get out and vote.

Sorun said...

It's snowing in Madison -- God hates Obama.

deborah said...

So Rove was correct? I give up.

Lem said...

Gannett says this was a chart cteated with "dummy data" to test their system. Gannett "regrets the error."

2:03 AM, Nov 6, 2012

All those people were up and voting so early?

Nathan Alexander said...

Another early revelation about Ohio:
Early voting was up overall by more than 2%.
If you think that favors Obama, however, the early voting was down by more than 4% in counties carried by Obama and Kerry and up by more than 14% in counties carried by Bush and McCain.

So the notion of early voting in Ohio having Romney up by ~90k, while possibly bogus, isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Makes me wonder if it is somehow accurate information that was supposed to be withheld at this point (by law?).

TWM said...

"Instead of talking about the election, I'll talk about someone I know who is becoming a grandmother today for the first time, and she is over the moon about it.

That's what is really important, not this election."

Happ as I am for the new grandmother, this election is important. Both to us and to the new grandchild. After all, she's already saddled with thousands of dollars in debt. Which will only get worse should Barry win.

So, yeah, this is very important.

Mike said...

C'mon Sorun,

God loves everybody, even whiny, nasty, mean-spirited, vengeful, greedy, lying socialists like Obama.

TWM said...

"Gannett says this was a chart cteated with "dummy data" to test their system. Gannett "regrets the error."

Funny how they put Romney ahead in their test.

john said...

Notice there are no reports yet from Noble County, the bellwether of Ohio.

Don't count your wethers before your hear them, Romney supporters.

In other words, don't get cocky.

Freder Frederson said...

In addition, 200,000 voters have been removed from the rolls, usually because they died (and thus would vote Democrat if left on the rolls)

No matter how much you say otherwise, there is no evidence of widespread voting by ineligible (or dead) voters.

edutcher said...

MadisonMan said...

Instead of talking about the election, I'll talk about someone I know who is becoming a grandmother today for the first time, and she is over the moon about it.

She's absolutely right.

My congrats.

Lem said...

Oh I got it..

'Early voting' does not mean people voting in the dead of night.

This is too confusing for me.

TWM said...

There's this though:

Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.


https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/statuses/265796285045551105

For what it's worth.

Colonel Angus said...

One precinct had a 20 minute wait.

Two hours for me first thing this morning. The fact the voting machines were down for a half hour compounded the situation. I.suppose I could have claimed disenfranchisement.

Next Adventure said...

This is a mistake: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/CINCI/121106009/

Lem said...

That's what is really important, not this election.

Another Nate Silver take down ;)

Ignorance is Bliss said...

MadisonMan said...

Instead of talking about the election, I'll talk about someone I know who is becoming a grandmother today for the first time, and she is over the moon about it.

That's what is really important, not this election


Very true. Either way, we need future generations to pay off our debt.

chickelit said...

I waited in line to vote for the first time ever in Oceanside. Lots of first time voters and many provisional ballots were cast.

TWM said...

Judge has to orderDemocratic voting judge to allow Republican election officials back in the polling place after they were kicked out.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/judge-orders-reinstatement-of-booted-election-officials-in-philly-gop-says/

If they ain't cheating, Dems ain't breathing. And sometimes even then.

AF said...

Mike: I was referring to Althouse's link. And actually I was cutting and pasting from the very website the link comes from. It is an error. It is not legitimate.

As for your information, it is from an Internet commenter named Mike. And in any case I don't understand you to be saying that you have actual results.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

MadisonMan said...

Instead of talking about the election, I'll talk about someone I know who is becoming a grandmother today for the first time, and she is over the moon about it.

That's what is really important, not this election


Very true. Either way, we need future generations to pay off our debt.

deborah said...

Good find, TWM.

Mike said...

OK Freder

I'll tacitly accept your unsupported assertion if you can explain one thing: How does Milwaukee* (just to cite one example) achieve a result of 4500 more votes than the city has registered voters without fraud?

Hmmm?

*2004 election http://media2.620wtmj.com/breakingnews/ElectionResults_2004_VoterFraudInvestigation_MPD-SIU-A2474926.pdf

bagoh20 said...

Yea, I passed this on in an earlier post. Sorry if it turns out wrong. At the time it had been reported for a while and was still up at the original source, so I assumed it was safe.

TWM said...

Black Panthers at polls again. Imagine, if you will, the KKK standing outside a polling station?

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/new-black-panthers-back-at-the-same-08-polling-place-in-philadelphia/

Matt said...

Fun anecdote from my trip to vote:

There was a man, I'd day early 50's asking what he needed other than a driver's license to vote. He said he hadn't voted since they started requiring paperwork.

I asked him why the low hurdle had tripped him up, and his answer is one I will never forget: "There's been no point to voting for a while, everything's been good no need to change anything... until now".

Here's hoping there are several thousand more like him in Florida today.

Nathan Alexander said...

No matter how much you say otherwise, there is no evidence of widespread voting by ineligible (or dead) voters.

Since Democrats strenuously block any attempt to procure that evidence, your claim is rather empty.

Refusing to acknowledge a problem is not the same a there being no problem.

Freder Frederson said...

Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

According to some guy on twitter. Where is he getting his information?

harrogate said...

"Refusing to acknowledge a problem is not the same a there being no problem."

Neither does screeching for an "investigation" to "procure evidence" count as the same thing as there being a problem.

Mike said...

AF, I figured you'd ignore mt reference to Barone's analysis. If you want to see independent analysis of GOTV efforts on Ohio that confirm what I wrote there are many. Here are two that touch on some themes but you could read Barone's whole article from Saturday if you want the word from the most knowledgeable election expert.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/tag/gotv/

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_11/the_ultimate_gotv_appeal040921.php

By the way, the evangelical efforts are the story the media will write after its all over because they missed it as it was happening, with a few exceptions. Don't discount the stupidity of Obama picking a fight with religion (HHS mandates) right in the middle of his reelection.

Colonel Angus said...

Black Panthers at polls again.

Who exactly are they trying to influence? The 95% of African Americans who are voting for Obama?

TWM said...

"No matter how much you say otherwise, there is no evidence of widespread voting by ineligible (or dead) voters."

Notice you didn't say it doesn't happen. Define widespread. 1000 votes sometimes decide elections these days so it doesn't take too many bodies to win an election.

Besides dead people voting is a ancient tradition and if there is one group of people who have the lack of integrity to carry it on it's Democrats. More specifically, Chicago Democrats.

Colonel Angus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
campy said...

I'm back from the polls.

I chose to cast a ballot in only one race, since I knew the others were not in doubt.

TWM said...

"Who exactly are they trying to influence? The 95% of African Americans who are voting for Obama?"

Excellent question, although I believe they are there to dissuade Romney voters and not urge blacks to vote for Obama.

Mike said...

As expected the flame-throwing Freder can't support his assertions...again. Enjoy your awful day! Re-elect Romney in 2016!

Paul said...

I hear the brownshirts.. I mean Black Panthers, are again in Phily (and who knows where else.) Add to that in NV UNIONS got illegals to try to vote.

That's Dems for you. But it WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE. Romney will win.

phx said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
phx said...

"Romney trouncing Obama in Ohio."

Made you look.

gadfly said...

No reporting for Wood and Trumbull counties which have UAW members galore. Surprisingly, Romney is ahead in Cuyahoga, Lorain and Lucus which are autoworker strongholds as well. Not much activity in Union county which is home of the big Honda plant - but it is non-union.

Clare King said...

I just sent this link to a friend and by the time it got there she gets a "Removed" notice at the top of the page.

What the F?

traditionalguy said...

The choice is clear that Romney is the guy who will lead us back to prosperity. Obama wants to enslave us and sell us out to the UN.

But many voters feel a strong need to save Sweet Ole Barack because he seems to love them more than the rich guy.

Rich guys have usually cared only about themselves.

Shanna said...

These so called voter intimidation stories abound every election and can never be proved.

The black panther thing from 2008 was on tape.

This year's is unconfirmed, though.

Matthew Sablan said...

Was the 92k then their projection based on % of ballots turned in? Weird they'd let such a major slip up through. Alas.

Nathan Alexander said...

Neither does screeching for an "investigation" to "procure evidence" count as the same thing as there being a problem.

But there is lots of evidence of there being problems with voter fraud.

Why are you against Rule of Law? Why are you against non-invasive investigation?

Clearly, you know liberal-progressives will lose out if the truth is revealed.

Matthew Sablan said...

Not only is the 2008 Black Panther incident on tape, the only reason no one got in trouble for it is that DOJ decided not to press charges, despite having already won the case in court.

EMD said...

Black Panthers at polls again.

How does this work? How would that intimidate anyone? What are they going to do? Beat you up or something?

They shouldn't be there at all, but I don't understand how they can actively dissuade people from voting.

gadfly said...

I see where Governor Cuomo has made it possible to vote as many times as you would like in New York. He calls it "affidavit voting." Sign an affidavit that you cannot get to your precinct and you can vote in any precinct - and it will be counted!

Matthew Sablan said...

"They shouldn't be there at all, but I don't understand how they can actively dissuade people from voting."

-- The current photos/stills I've seen just has someone standing there. That's not intimidating. In 2008, they shouted at people and waved weapons about. That's intimidating.

garage mahal said...

Found out my swing voting, former Tea Party curious inlaws are going to vote for Obama and Tammy Baldwin. Bit of surprise. I guess Tommy is not liked by a lot of people in his hometown anymore, where my inlaws are from.

harrogate said...

Nathan,

If evidence is what you were really interested in then you'd be worried about other things entirely. There is plenty of evidence of efforts to suppress minority voting in this country. Not just this season but every season.

Myself, I just wish that every single eligible voter voted in every election.

Scott M said...

Neither does screeching for an "investigation" to "procure evidence" count as the same thing as there being a problem.

No, but if you're on a ship and there's a little unexplained water here and there, you would side with the officer that wants to go look to see if there's a leak wouldn't you?

Michael K said...

"No matter how much you say otherwise, there is no evidence of widespread voting by ineligible (or dead) voters."

There is never any evidence. If there was, somebody would be prosecuted. Instead, we get Senator Franken and Governor Gregoire, both after enough ballots were "discovered."

harrogate said...

Scott,

It depends on whether said "officer" happened to also be standing there with a jug half-filled with water and with a wet stain on his crotch.

Daniel5000 said...

Romney is not trouncing Obama in Ohio. Or maybe he is, but there is no evidence thereof. Are you that hungry for clicks?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/CINCI/121106009/Early-votes-not-yet-counted-Ohio?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|

Matthew Sablan said...

Arguments about voter suppression coming from the party that benefited by news networks calling Florida early and has no issue with armed men in front of polling places yelling at voters show a severe sign of hackiness.

Freder Frederson said...


I'll tacitly accept your unsupported assertion if you can explain one thing: How does Milwaukee* (just to cite one example) achieve a result of 4500 more votes than the city has registered voters without fraud?

Incompetence and poor record keeping.

You didn't bother to read beyond "[t]he reports of more ballots cast than voters recorded were found to be true", did you?

And regardless, your statement is not true, there were more votes cast than voters recorded, not registered voters.

Matthew Sablan said...

"Incompetence and poor record keeping."

-- And no one ever has exploited the government's gullibility, stupidity and bad record keeping for personal gain or to gain an edge for their partisan interests. We should seal all cracks that allow voter fraud to happen -before- an election is decided by it.

poplicola said...

"Lem said...
All those people were up and voting so early?"

We were about 10th in line when our poll here in Columbus, Ohio opened, there were 70 behind us at 6:25 this morning.

Jay Retread said...

Today' drinking game-do a shot every time Ann makes an embarrassing mistake due to her blind partisanship today.

bagoh20 said...

"They shouldn't be there at all, but I don't understand how they can actively dissuade people from voting."

You really don't think there is anyone who would be dissuaded by two big black guys holding clubs manning the doors in a mostly black area? It may not stop everyone, but I know a lot people who are intimidated on a daily basis in such places even when there is nothing at stake, and this is very important to a lot of people. If it didn't work they wouldn't be there, and if they thought there would be any price to pay for it, it wouldn't be happening. Thank you Eric Holder and Mr. President for bringing us all together in peace and mutual respect.

traditionalguy said...

I believe that Ohio has a strong evangelical community. So the poll there are going to look like Chik-fil-A on appreciation day.

And most voters will also order a GOP Senator and Representatives platter while they are there.

This will be the big November surprise.

Lem said...

Are you that hungry for clicks?

Hunger has been up in the last four years.

harrogate said...

"Ambition makes you look pretty ugly
Kicking and squealing gucci little piggy
You don't remember
You don't remember
Why don't you remember my name?
Off with his head, man
Off with his head, man
Why don't you remember my name?
I guess he does....

Rain down, rain down
Come on rain down on me
From a great height
From a great height... height...
Rain down, rain down
Come on rain down on me
From a great height
From a great height... height...
Rain down, rain down
Come on rain down on me

That's it, sir
You're leaving
The crackle of pigskin
The dust and the screaming
The yuppies networking
The panic, the vomit
The panic, the vomit
God loves his children, God loves his children, yeah!"

TWM said...

"Found out my swing voting, former Tea Party curious inlaws are going to vote for Obama and Tammy Baldwin. Bit of surprise. I guess Tommy is not liked by a lot of people in his hometown anymore, where my inlaws are from."


That's it then. Romney is toast.

Matthew Sablan said...

Wait: Garage described the people in his anecdote as swing voters who were formerly "curious" about the Tea Party. The fact he is surprised that people who are not members of the Tea Party and are swing voters let their vote swing tells us what we need to know about his political analysis.

TWM said...

Democrats, gotta love em.

Obama mural in voting station. Things that make normal people go, "Hmmmmmm?" That excludes Inga and garage.



http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/is-this-an-actual-polling-place/

Matthew Sablan said...

Now, if, say, he were pointing to double digit leads with independent voters, that might be a data point about swing voters worth pondering. But, he's not, so it's not.

Matthew Sablan said...

If that's a real photo... that is clearly electioneering. Most places have laws against that in polling places.

deborah said...

"They shouldn't be there at all, but I don't understand how they can actively dissuade people from voting."


I think it would have unintended effects. A tepid Obama supporter might switch his vote to Romney in the voting booth.

Daniel5000 said...

There is no question as to whether that data is real. Your update is incorrect. It is dummy data, and Cincinnati.com has said so clearly.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/CINCI/121106009/Early-votes-not-yet-counted-Ohio?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|

TWM said...

"If that's a real photo... that is clearly electioneering. Most places have laws against that in polling places."

Sadly I think it is real. But laws have to be enforced and Holder isn't very high on enforcing them in that direction.

EMD said...

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/is-this-an-actual-polling-place/

At the minimum, they should have to cover it up during election hours.

TWM said...

"There is no question as to whether that data is real. Your update is incorrect. It is dummy data, and Cincinnati.com has said so clearly."

They say it's not real. It probably is not real. I still find it interesting that Romney is ahead in the test though. At about the same number people have been talking about for a week. Why not tie them out or put Barry ahead?

Just curious.

Matthew Sablan said...

If you make dummy data, it should obviously be dummy data, just to prevent this from happening, and to make checking the machine's math easier. I'd've simply used 100 votes spread out over the various counties (or an easy multiple of the total number of polling places/districts Ohio has), as opposed to using the rough numbers people were speculating over. That's just sloppy testing.

Nathan Alexander said...

If evidence is what you were really interested in then you'd be worried about other things entirely. There is plenty of evidence of efforts to suppress minority voting in this country. Not just this season but every season.

Nope.

The entire sum of your evidence is in the link you just provided.

Which for the slow, is "none".

But here's some voter fraud you claim doesn't exist:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&ved=0CFEQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2FBig-Government%2F2012%2F10%2F09%2FNevada-Acorn-Conviction-Upheld&ei=XT-ZUKSHDOq30AGV7ICADQ&usg=AFQjCNGiO-CJFR5fhXmCWpmDVRD5yH4bMQ&sig2=IwXhsSukS8u8y8PK6_b-CA

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&ved=0CFcQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2FBig-Government%2F2012%2F09%2F05%2FMississippi-NAACP-Official-In-Jail-For-Casting-Absentee-Ballots-For-Dead-People&ei=XT-ZUKSHDOq30AGV7ICADQ&usg=AFQjCNGiE66PvgQAEJ5brMUZeqgD8wo7kg&sig2=W0-R8BRGobvu0IVHXo-oKw

Those were first search, easily found.

There are dozens of others. I don't want the comment rejected for spam, so won't include more.

But remember Jim Moran's son and a few Democrat Party officials were fired for enabling potential vote fraud, rather than cautioning against, reporting, or refusing to have anything to do with it.

But you get all screechy and butt-hurt when Project Veritas is mentioned.

So your commitment to the truth is fairly doubted.

gloogle said...

It is utter foolishness to believe, much less repeat, any such "exit polling", particularly at 10:23 am (Ohio time) on election day.

I voted for Romney, but stories like this, either way, are utter bullshit. I'm surprised you fell for this, Ann...

gloogle said...

It is utter foolishness to believe, much less repeat, any such "exit polling", particularly at 10:23 am (Ohio time) on election day.

I voted for Romney, but stories like this, either way, are utter bullshit. I'm surprised you fell for this, Ann...

Matthew Sablan said...

Again: It was not exit polling data. It was, allegedly, the totals of early vote counts, which matched roughly, what other people were guesstimating it would be at, judging by currently available information (ballots by party/location), etc. It was also reported by a reputable source; it was reasonable to believe that they were not idiots. Unfortunately, they'll have some credibility to win back after some how posting dummy data to their live servers (which means at least four or five people saw it and signed off on it.)

TWM said...

"If you make dummy data, it should obviously be dummy data, just to prevent this from happening, and to make checking the machine's math easier. I'd've simply used 100 votes spread out over the various counties (or an easy multiple of the total number of polling places/districts Ohio has), as opposed to using the rough numbers people were speculating over. That's just sloppy testing."

Fair enough. Still I like the result.

harrogate said...

Hmmmmm. Not really incumbent on people to prove something doesn't exist, Nathan. It is up to you to prove it does exist or else you look silly shaking your fists at the sky over it.

Also, Breitbart links might, to people not wildly partisan, seem a tad biased. FYI.

Matthew Sablan said...

Hint: Simply saying something is biased doesn't work. Attacking the speaker is not a logical refutation of the facts.

Colonel Angus said...

- The current photos/stills I've seen just has someone standing there. That's not intimidating. In 2008, they shouted at people and waved weapons about. That's intimidating.

I would love to see them try that in my neck of the woods.

Saint Croix said...

there were more votes cast than voters recorded, not registered voters.

Oh, that's okay then!

The voting fraud that your party routinely does is vile. But you have to do it, because you are a minority party, and you know it.

Voter ID is routinely used across Europe. Why not call them racist too!

The people, not surprisingly, support democracy and so they despise fraudulent attempts to seize power.

And voter ID is pretty much a proxy for the Democrat party as a whole. "Racism!" Vile and dishonest posturing as you fight for one man, six votes.

Mike said...

From Paul Mirengof at PowerlineBlog:

A fuller account of the fundamentals, as well as other factors, that favor Romney can be found in this analysis by Bill Otis, a very reliable forecaster of presidential races during the 40 years we’ve been friends.

1. When both Rasmussen and Gallup say +1 [for Romney], it’s +1.

2. That would mean Romney by about 1,200,000 votes. No candidate has ever finished that far in front and lost the Electoral College.

3. Back to basics: The conventional wisdom all year was that the party to win the independents wins the White House. As usual, the conventional wisdom is right.

4. Back to basics again: When the polling is a tie, the side with greater intensity wins. That’s us.

5. Sandy did hurt Romeny, but the hurt stopped yesterday, when graphic pictures showed that what was thought to be Dear Leader’s relief effort was leaving thousands in awful shape. If anything, I suspect there’s been a slight Thermidor over the last 48 hours.

6. Take a look at the right track/wrong track number.

7. Almost no poll has Obama at 50%. What is the history of incumbents who are not at 50% the day before the election?

8. Obama squandered his best asset, his “favorability.” Romney now outdoes him there on the RCP Index. Behavior does matter.

9. The economy stinks, and the press can’t hide it. True, it doesn’t stink around here, because Washington is absorbing tax dollars from everywhere else. But it’s extremely hard to get a job. People feel anxious, and they’ve felt that way ever since Dear Leader has been in office. There is a pent-up longing to be able to feel better, more relaxed.

10. We’ve got Obamafatigue. He’s the most overexposed man in history. He wears well for a while, but it’s been too long. What used to sound like soaring phrases now sounds like what it actually is, to wit, blather.

11. All during the Republican primary season, for months, the polling showed a genaric Republican winning over Obama. Romney has succeeded in turning himself into the genaric Republican.

12. The expiation-driven urge to elect a black President has been sated. Been there, done that.

13. Where will the decisive electoral votes come from? I suspect from Wisconsin (just last year the Dems and unions threw in everything they had and lost the recall by 7%; plus there’s favorite son Paul Ryan); Iowa (all four major papers endorsed the Republican candidate — a first, I believe); Colorado (a marijuana initiative will draw some of the college vote to Gary Johnson). We appear to have some chance at Pennsylvania, although we always seem to think that and always seem to lose. Ohio — who knows? But if I’m right, we can win without it.

harrogate said...

Matthew,

You think that it is debatable whether Breitbart is biased? I mean, come on. If there is this big voter fraud problem then surely we can do a bit better than this.

And I mean, by the way, you would need a nice array of evidence, a real substantial body of numbers, to show we have a problem, that demands legal action. A story here or there ought not to cut it. Anecdotes certainly do not cut it. For people so sure minorities and poor people face no voter suppression in this country, so quick to demand Evidence to back up that charge, many of you sure seem quick to grab at anything to cite as "proof" of voter fraud.

bagoh20 said...

This is simply a right wing version of something invented by the left known as "fake but accurate." Still wrong to allow it to get out, but you'll notice difference in the immediate retraction rather than a drawn out lying and insistence on it's validity.

Matthew Sablan said...

"You think that it is debatable whether Breitbart is biased? I mean, come on. If there is this big voter fraud problem then surely we can do a bit better than this."

-- The goal posts, they should stop being moved.

bagoh20 said...

" ...you would need a nice array of evidence, a real substantial body of numbers, to show we have a problem, that demands legal action."

Only one side refuses to even look, much like the Benghazi thing. You know something's up when it's just one side that wants to keep us all in the dark.

harrogate said...

It is not moving the goalposts to point out that the thing you are citing is a known shrill partisan voice that would never, ever publish a single thing that was not fully designed to make conservatives look like noble underdogs.

Matthew Sablan said...

"A story here or there ought not to cut it."

-- Why not? People have proven voter fraud happens and is encouraged by high-ranking members of political parties. They were caught. On video. Why should we be held to an ever increasingly higher burden in a sort of reverse-Sodom and Gomorrah situation? We started merely having to prove it was possible. Then, we're asked for a single case. Now, we're being asked for an even greater hurdle.

No dice. The challenge has been met and answered. Either explain -why we should not care that fraud is happening- or -that you believe current safeguards are good enough- or some other response to the facts laid out: Fraud happens, we are unsure of its total impact, but several elections are close enough that even minor fraud could swing it.

Deal with reality.

Mike said...

From John Fund at NRO's Corner today (note the tacit admission of voter fraud by reknowned right-wing-nut-crazy Chris Mathews):

In Pennsylvania, it’s Obama that has the damaged public image. He is deeply unpopular in the western part of the state’s coal country due to onerous EPA regulations that have cost the industry jobs. In the conservative central part of the state, voters still tell me they smart over Barack Obama’s 2008 description of them as “clinging to guns and religion.”

In the Philadelphia suburbs, Romney-Ryan is the first GOP candidate in a generation that doesn’t raise cultural hackles. “The suburbs didn’t thrill to Bob Dole, they weren’t comfortable with George W. Bush as a swaggering Texan and John McCain had Sarah Palin on his ticket,” says Colleen Sheehan, a professor at Villanova University. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, looks and acts like someone who could be at home on the Main Line.

As for Philadelphia, the fearsome get-out-the-vote machine that routinely delivers massive majorities for Democrats may be rusty this year. Because Pennsylvania was viewed as in the bag for Democrats, resources are being deployed to the state late, and in some cases, the damage from Hurricane Sandy is making it difficult for unions to send in workers from neighboring New Jersey and New York. The state’s new voter-ID law, which this year will ask voters for photo IDs at the polls but still allow them to vote if they fail to produce them, may nonetheless act as a deterrent against the voter fraud — a practice even MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, a Philadelphia native, admits the City of Brotherly Love has been infamous for.

Should Romney win Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes in an upset, the pressure to carry Ohio’s 16 electoral votes will be dramatically reduced and he has several new paths to victory. If his surprise attack succeeds, it will go down in political history as one of the best-executed — and best-hidden – political maneuvers ever.

Matthew Sablan said...

Harrogate: So prove them wrong. It's really quite easy. If the Project Veritas videos are fake -prove it.- Don't assert it. I can assert you are really an intelligent Collie using Siri to type to us. That doesn't make it true.

Collies are the best dogs ever.

harrogate said...

So bagoh and Matthew, I suppose you are all a'twitter about the charges and anecdotes of voter suppression against minorities and poor people that have been in play for weeks?

Oh, let me guess. Those charges are not credible.

mamunsultanpur2 said...

Consumers are turnkey rental more, according to the survey, but the typical rent for a two-bedroom home rose in 89% of those markets to meet the demand. rental properties

Matthew Sablan said...

Harrogate: Those accusations should be substantiated. Are fewer minorities voting than they have in the past? (Hint: No.)

harrogate said...

breitbart makes a charge and so now it is this thing that either I must disprove or it is true? Really? I find that standard of proof very interesting.

How about you *prove* that the voting machines in Ohio are not rigged for Romney, Matthew? There have been *plenty* of charges that they are.

machine said...

"Something Chrysler is not doing: shifting Jeep production and jobs to China. Something Chrysler is doing: giving workers the day off to vote."

Karma...it burns...

FloridaSteve said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Matthew Sablan said...

Do you have video evidence of the charge, like we had on Jim Moran's kid? If not, then might I point you to a lesson on comparing apples to oranges.

AF said...

"UPDATE: There are questions about whether these are real."

Indeed there are:

Q. Are these real?
A. No.
Q. Come on, please?
A. No.

EMD said...

I had to show ID to vote in Ohio today!

harrogate said...

For the record, I think it inevitable that there would be some shenanigans during elections. I think that the use of electronic and digital voting machines makes it even more problematic. I also know that questionable and outright misleading mailings and phone calls and billboards, etc., do afflict minority and impovershed neighborhoods in the US during election season.

I mean yeah, we know there is the "possibility" of shenanigans. Not sure that is the best litmus test for making new laws though, or for shrieking that it is all a sham.

Mike said...

Machine like Obama is supremely dishonest.

Chrysler made an official statement that it is not MOVING all Jeep production to China, merely considering RETURNING some Jeep production to China. So, Romney saying Chrysler may move production to China is absolutely true.


http://blog.chryslerllc.com/blog.do?id=1932&p=entry

Nathan Alexander said...

Hmmmmm. Not really incumbent on people to prove something doesn't exist, Nathan. It is up to you to prove it does exist or else you look silly shaking your fists at the sky over it.

Also, Breitbart links might, to people not wildly partisan, seem a tad biased. FYI.


Sure, I provide evidence, you dismiss because you don't like the color of the skin of the person providing the evidence.

You provide zero evidence, but it is unassailable truth, because...?

Here's a clue: one side commits voter fraud. You reject the evidence claiming it is biased because it only shows one side committing voter fraud. Do you realize how stupid you sound?

It doesn't matter if I gave you an unedited video of Democrats following a step-by-step instruction to commit voter fraud, because your ideology won't allow you to face it.

Face it: you don't give a shit about the truth.

You don't give a shit about democracy.

Congratulations! You are a fully-brainwashed adherent to liberal fascism.

EMD said...

I also know that questionable and outright misleading mailings and phone calls and billboards, etc., do afflict minority and impovershed neighborhoods in the US during election season.

Because certain races are obviously more gullible than others?

Nathan Alexander said...

shorter harrogate:
unless you are a vote-fraud perpetrating Democrat, you are biased and your evidence can be ignored.

harrogate said...

Nathan,

You're just spewing now. Hurling insults because I am not treating Breitbart links as either a)news; or b)evidence that we need to pass some laws or start shrieking like banshees.

harrogate said...

EMD,

I just don't hear a lot about billboards warning against voter fraud being placed in affluent white neighborhoods. Nor do I hear of such neighborhoods being investigated by Breitbart.

Nor do I EVER see any concern from any of the righty parties arguing with me here, of concern that there could be vote fraud that works in favor of the candidates they prefer.

Colonel Angus said...

I also know that questionable and outright misleading mailings and phone calls and billboards, etc., do afflict minority and impovershed neighborhoods in the US during election season.

Why? Does being a minority or poor equate with lower intelligence?

My parents were dirt poor but they weren't idiots.

machine said...

"I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state Jeep — now owned by the Italians — is thinking of moving all production to China," Romney said at a rally in Defiance, Ohio...

Romney the Liar...it burns...

Marshal said...

harrogate said...
Nor do I EVER see any concern from any of the righty parties arguing with me here, of concern that there could be vote fraud that works in favor of the candidates they prefer.


Righties are against voting fraud. Unlike you we don't distinguish between vote fraud that helps or hurts. No doubt that's the source of your confusion.

rcommal said...

It's early still. A little care and skepticism w/r/t to constantly breaking news goes a long way... .

Mike said...

Yes, Machine.

"That story" was in Bloomberg news (such a right wing rag, that!) and it said "all" so Mitt was quoting it correctly. That was, in fact, referenced in the blog post by Chrysler, which you obviously didn't read. They cited the slightly incorrect Bloomberg story in their official statement.

Colonel Angus said...

I do wonder if liberals realize how much they infantilize minorities and the poor and how insulting that is.

Mike said...

Speaking of Chrysler, why exactly did our President sell the majority stake to Fiat? Why did he screw the bondholders in BK court? Why did he take away the retirement and health benefits from Delphi employees? Why is Jeep considering moving ANY JOBS to CHINA?

Because Obama is an incompetent boob.

EMD said...

I just don't hear a lot about billboards warning against voter fraud being placed in affluent white neighborhoods.

That's also probably because there aren't ANY billboards in affluent white neighborhoods ... period.

Mike said...

Judge orders that Obama mural covered in Philly voting place. Not that there are LAWS against such things already, nor would Democrats EVER cheat, mind you. No no no. Never.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/is-this-an-actual-polling-place/

machine said...

I saw a story that said Mitt Romney thinks Jesus has been to Missouri...

Doesn't matter if I know it is true or not...it only matters that I quote it correctly.

Baron Zemo said...

Jesus has been everywhere.

We just don't think that he currently resides in the White House. Just sayn'

Tarzan said...

Am I the only one who thought this post was going to be about a finely sculpted pair of mammaries?

Mike said...

Clever retort Machine!

Seriously, I didn't call Obama a liar when he said on the campaign trail "57 states" because campaigning leads to mistakes. But for your side to seize on everything Romney says to attempt to portray him as a liar is just stupid. First of all, referencing a published report from a respected news organization is what normal people call an "honest mistake." The fact that after Chrysler issued their statement, Romney switched up and started saying "some jobs to China" is admirable, I think. Most people would find that a reasonable reaction. But you -- and the partisan opinion columnist who has tagged himself a "Fact Checker" at the WaPo -- think branding Romney a liar is fair game. When that grows tiresome the switch is made to call him a flip-flopper, because now he says "some" instead of "all."

All the while, normal non-partisan Americans can see the evidence for themselves. They see a candidate that says anything in a bid to get elected, but that candidate in the President. The same guy that lied about Benghazi and then has the balls to say on the stump: "I say what I mean" and "We won't leave anyone behind."

machine said...

Even Mike Wallace called the campaign out on it..

Fox news called them out on a lie?!?!?!!?!?hahahahahahaha

it burns...

Colonel Angus said...

Even Mike Wallace called the campaign out on it..

How? Through a seance?

Mike said...

Wow machine cites Fox news! (Didn't know they'd hired old Mike Wallace.)

Game. Set. Match.

Colonel Angus said...

Wow machine cites Fox news! (Didn't know they'd hired old Mike Wallace.)

Probably because he's dead.

Rusty said...

machine said...
"Something Chrysler is not doing: shifting Jeep production and jobs to China. Something Chrysler is doing: giving workers the day off to vote."

Karma...it burns...


Yeah. Because they're moving Jeep production to.........Italy. Chrysler workers are going to get a lot more than just election day off.

Karma, dude.

Baron Zemo said...

I think there was one clear indication that Ohio is going to Romney.

Loafing Oaf who lives in Cleveland
Ohio announced some weeks ago that he was not going to vote for Obama. He seems to be a dedicated liberal who really hated Sarah Palin. And her uterus.

He might have changed his mind and voted for Obama but the enthusiasm gap is there. So he might not have voted at all.

A small indication of a bigger picture. Just sayn'

harrogate said...

EMD,

I have read enough of your comments to think you *have* to know that was a weak-assed response that you came up with, right there. The point is hardly literally chained to Billboards (although it certainly tells us something about the ways in which those in charge make sure that information and information literacy operates on different planes depending on class).

The point is that you don't see efforts to "warn" voters in affluent white neighborhoods against committing vote fraud, in the manner we saw coming down the homestretch of this election in poor and minority-dominated areas. Period.

And you sure as hell don't see outfits like Breitbart, or websites like this one, investigating any charges of voter intimindation or vote fraud that implicate the GOP. Nor do I ever recall commenters here worrying over such things.

EMD said...

The point is that you don't see efforts to "warn" voters in affluent white neighborhoods against committing vote fraud, in the manner we saw coming down the homestretch of this election in poor and minority-dominated areas. Period.

I had to show ID to vote. In a white affluent neighborhood. Why?

harrogate said...

I had to show ID to vote too. In a middle class neighborhood. But there were no Breitbartians around with cameras looking askance at me when I presented my ID. Why?

harrogate said...

I also received no shady mailings enumerating reasons I might not be eligible to vote. Can't tell why that would be either.

EMD said...

Breitbartians

Breitbarbarians is the preferred nomenclature.

دردشة ومنتديات عراقنا said...

شات عراقنا
دردشة عراقنا
جات عراقنا
دردشة عراقنا
شلة عراقنا
عراقنا
شات العراق
دردشة عراقية
شات كيكه
دردشة عبدالله
جات
شات عراقنا
دردشة
منتدى دردشة عراقنا
منتدى عراقنا

Rusty said...

The point is that you don't see efforts to "warn" voters in affluent white neighborhoods against committing vote fraud, in the manner we saw coming down the homestretch of this election in poor and minority-dominated areas. Period.

Um. I've had to show an ID when I've voted in every election since I've moved here in'92. A $250,000 home even now would be a modest one. So what's your point.

Marshal said...

The only reason to be against common sense election security is support for voter fraud. So we know what Harrogate's true goal is.

X said...

Something Chrysler is doing: giving workers the day off to vote.

the aggregate quality of the planet's new car inventory has just improved.

X said...

if requiring an occupational license for 30+% Americans to earn their daily bread is reasonable, then so is showing an ID to vote.

hombre said...

Brad Thor, the author, has expressed concern that Obama will declare victory during the afternoon to suppress Republican turnout.

He needn't worry. Republicans know that, unlike Democrats, most Republicans aren't able to vote until after they finish work in late afternoon or evening.

Saint Croix said...

Dan Rather's gut says Romney's going to have a good day.

Also, eggs.