Althouse: Scott Walker spikes to 97% the day after Bill Clinton campaigns against him.

June 2, 2012

Scott Walker spikes to 97% the day after Bill Clinton campaigns against him.

Ouch.

21 comments:

Alex said...: What is Intrade based on? It's all about turnout. The election is completely in doubt!; 6/2/12, 12:56 PM
vet66 said...: That has to leave a mark. "ouch" indeed.; 6/2/12, 12:57 PM
David said...: Hilary's chances in 2016 probably improve if Obama loses this year.; 6/2/12, 1:01 PM
Tom Spaulding said...: Hope some Lefties put their formerly-witheld-union dues into the Barrett stock. He's a lock.

Crony Speculativism!!; 6/2/12, 1:02 PM
bagoh20 said...: Wow, 97% that is some confident gambling right there. I think it likely, but not a slam dunk. This is Wisconsin (California on the lake).; 6/2/12, 1:10 PM
Mary Beth said...: Some graduating high school seniors like Walker too.; 6/2/12, 1:11 PM
Roger J. said...: I am having a hard time figuring out Mr Clinton's motivations for campaigning in WI--far too many theories to posit. The big dawg aint what he used to be, porn stars nothwithstanding.; 6/2/12, 1:13 PM
Patrick said...: I recognize that I may be venturing into Black Helicopter territory, but consider this: From what I glean on Intrade, there are currently 31 shares available at the price. In other words, it takes very little to move it. Could a campaign, or an operative make buys or offers to buy in order to create an aura of inevitability? It seems very low cost and possible. I doubt Intrade's stats move that many people, but it helps Gov. Walker if people view his re-election as inevitable.

Oh well, back to the garden, maybe to think up another conspiracy.; 6/2/12, 1:13 PM
eelpout said...: Our reforms are working. To prove it, I am going to blast an ad in your face literally every other commercial. Because you're fucking stoopid!

Anyone see this? Doesn't sound good!

http://www.facebook.com/takeactionnews/posts/421512164536056

"The legal sources, who are not involved in Wisconsin's recall, spoke on condition of anonymity. They said Walker faces "serious legal challenges," including "a possible indictment," regardless of the election results on Tuesday."; 6/2/12, 1:19 PM
Patrick said...: Yeah, Bailey, some guy said something on the internet, so it must be true. Keep the faith, brother!; 6/2/12, 1:22 PM
Glen Wishard said...: Clinton looked like he got out of bed 10 minutes before that appearance. Clinton never does any good for anybody but Clinton.; 6/2/12, 1:23 PM
traditionalguy said...: We need to collect money to pay Clinton to speak at rallies for Democrats in all tightly contested elections. What better return can the GOP get for its money?; 6/2/12, 1:26 PM
eelpout said...: Well we know that Walker just transferred another 100k into his criminal defense fund. Must be some sort of lawyering going on. That report was from David Shuster. More to come we're told. You would think Walker would get a note from the prosecutors if he wasn't a target. Otherwise people rightfully wonder.; 6/2/12, 1:26 PM
edutcher said...: Shouldn'ta walked over to those porn stars.

But these are the same guys who bet on the horse that ran 4th would win.; 6/2/12, 1:52 PM
Michael K said...: " That report was from David Shuster. "

Oh, well in that case....; 6/2/12, 1:57 PM
kcom said...: "What is Intrade based on? It's all about turnout. The election is completely in doubt!"

It's based on that, too. It's based on what everyone thinks, which includes what they think about turnout.

That's the point, it's relying on the wisdom of the crowd (each person with a unique knowledge set) to take the infinite number of factors involved and winnow them down to a predicted outcome that one person alone can't calculate. It doesn't mean it's right, but it's the best aggregate opinion out there (in theory).; 6/2/12, 2:17 PM
Big Mike said...: This is Intrade. The election will come around soon enough.; 6/2/12, 2:53 PM
Seeing Red said...: --We need to collect money to pay Clinton to speak at rallies for Democrats in all tightly contested elections. What better return can the GOP get for its money?---

Is he the new AlBore?; 6/2/12, 4:06 PM
greenlantern said...: Bill's speech was very partisan--that's not his style--he's more smoove than that. I think that was a calculated move--THAT is what he does even better.; 6/2/12, 4:23 PM
Clint said...: Ann, are you being manipulated by people manipulating InTrade?; 6/2/12, 5:03 PM
Chip S. said...: Intrade comment of the day:

with something like 97% odds, the market is still saying it believes Barrett has a 3% chance to win. That's still a relatively large chance.; 6/2/12, 7:04 PM