April 27, 2010

Tom Goldstein predicts that Obama will nominate Elena Kagan for the Supreme Court.

He'd already predicted it, and he still thinks so:
It seems clear to me that none of the three nominees—including even Diane Wood—will generate a knock-down, drag-out fight in the Senate. In effect, the White House preempted the prospect of an all-out war by not including the leading liberal prospects in its published short list of finalists. The Bush White House took a similar approach when it nominated the conservative Samuel Alito, but passed on then-Fourth Circuit Judge Michael Luttig, to whom Democrats had signaled their very strong objections....

More surprising, institutional Republicans have not been particularly vocal in their objections to the potential nomination of Diane Wood. Judge Wood’s abortion-related opinions would mean that she would receive only in the range of 55 to 60 votes. But confirmation would still be all but assured....

It is ... true that Judge Wood is the nominee whom progressives would prefer to see nominated, by an order of magnitude. While criticism from the left of General Kagan (who as the perceived front runner has received the most attention) and Judge Garland has been limited to a few, very vocal liberal commentators, it nonetheless exists.... So to the extent that Wood presents the potential downsides of some fight in the Senate and mobilizing conservatives in the election, she has the upside of appealing to and mobilizing core constituencies of the president....

On the ability of the three to persuade a conservative member of the Court such as Justice Kennedy, all have significant strengths as well.... Diane Wood is not only personally charming but has gone toe to toe with Judges Easterbrook and Posner and persuaded them on significant issues. Elena Kagan has significant demonstrated success in working with conservatives at Harvard Law School, which is an exceptionally challenging environment, and has parallels to the relationships at the Court. But she has never been a judge, and would as a consequence presumably take longer than the others to adapt to the new role.
I don't quite get it. Why won't Obama give liberals what they want? The strongest argument for Kagan over Wood seems to be age. Kagan's 49. Wood is 59.

44 comments:

Scott said...

Not a lawyer here.
I only hope you J.D.'s
Don't fuck us again

Lem said...

Nomiate?

sonicfrog said...

There was a favorable article in the WSJ today on Kagan. I assume the pump is being primed for her to be to nominee.

Balfegor said...

Why won't Obama give liberals what they want?

Even if he can do it, that doesn't mean Democrats wouldn't pay a price in November. Kagan is safer, even if Wood wouldn't excite furious opposition.

That said, I stand by my assessment on Sotomayor -- Senate Republicans blew it there, when the nominee just crumpled for them on all rhetorical fronts and they all voted against her anyway. Should have voted for her, so they could use her testimony against subsequent liberal nominees.

Also, "General Kagan?" Are we doing that with the Solicitor General too? Will we add epaulets to the morning coat next? It's Frenchified adjective order -- she's the Solicitor General. Fie on you, language change! We should still be talking about brickbats ject a le dit Justice.

David said...

Ageist pigs.

Fred4Pres said...

I don't like any of them, but Kagan would be better than Wood.

paul a'barge said...

...a conservative member of the Court such as Justice Kennedy...

Bwah hah hah!!! Good one, dude.

AJ Lynch said...

Obama only wants to get into your pants pockets Althouse. Since this issue very little to do with wealth re-distribution, it does not matter much to President Obama. Ditto for cap & tax and immigration - wait and see.

paul a'barge said...

Lem +1.

Check the title of this blog entry. Nominate is misspelled.

paul a'barge said...

Kagan is the Harvard Law School Dean who kept military recruiters off campus.

She should be turned down for a job catching dogs.

Kirstin said...

Are only women being seriously considered? If so, why?

Balfegor said...

Are only women being seriously considered? If so, why?

I think there was a token white male, to show they weren't complete bigots.

AJ Lynch said...

Kristin:

Where have you been? It's one of the women's seats! All nice and warm and curvy! Heh.

Slow Joe said...

"Obama only wants to get into your pants pockets Althouse."

What if it's Kagan who wants in her pants? WHAT ABOUT THAT?

sunsong said...

I'm just hoping the pubbies make this an opportunity to discuss with the country the role of government - the constitution and the mandate!

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Why won't Obama give liberals what they want?

I'm guessing because he knows that the public is actually paying attention to the Supreme Court, especially after some very contentious decisions like Kelo.

He likely doesn't want YET another range war to illustrate to the public that his Administration is not moderate, is nowhere near mainstream, is so very leftward, socialistic and antagonistic towards the Constitutional heritage that people expect the Supreme Court to uphold.

SteveR said...

Young age is a big qualifier, especially under Obamacare now that we'll all live to be 100 plus.

Slow Joe said...

He nominates a far leftist like Kagan, and I'm sorry, she's simply a radical, and the MSM calls that horribly centrist and failing to give the left what they want.

Sure... OK.

Kagan kicked the US Military recruiters off her campus. That's a bold step against our government and against the simple and fair administration of laws. It's deeply unjust and shows a lack of temperment.

You are being lied to when you're told Kagan is like Roberts and Alito. She's not just a little to the left. She blamed the military for following Clinton's law and expelled them from campus. That's psycho.

Trooper York said...

I am sticking with my prediction of Lynn Stewart.

She is tan, rested and radical.

Perfect.

victoria said...

Go Elena. You kept those recruiters off Harvard campus. You are my hero!!!!


Vicki from Pasadena

Sorry Paul (not really)

victoria said...

Slow Joe,

really?
You are ew.

Vicki from Pasadena

Palladian said...

As if the coddled pussies at Harvard could handle being in the military anyway.

But keep singing loud and proud vicki! It only helps the opposition to hear what loonballs and douchebags Obama cheerleaders actually are.

Balfegor said...

Kagan kicked the US Military recruiters off her campus. That's a bold step against our government and against the simple and fair administration of laws. It's deeply unjust and shows a lack of temperment.

Sure. But it's also well within the "mainstream" of the legal profession. Lots of law schools, under student pressure, have either considered or decided to bar the US military from recruiting in the same facilities as other employers. Sometimes this is justified on the grounds that Don't Ask Don't Tell (mandated by federal statute at 10 U.S.C. 654) is a form of discrimination against homosexuals, and thus in conflict with the law schools' nondiscrimination policies. It's a stupid protest mechanism, given that the military is -- for good reason -- not empowered to overturn federal law on its own say-so, and pressure, if it should be applied, ought to be applied against Congress and the President, but well, law students will be law students.

Trooper York said...

I don’t think you are being fair to the President Vicki.

Why should he settle for someone who just despises and hates our military? He should get someone like Lynn who actually actively works to destroy our country.

That is much more in line with his sensibility. He is entitled to get what he wants. I mean he won the election after all.

Trooper York said...

It's just a shame that Ramsey Clark is just too old.

Rabel said...

The President will nominate an African-American for this vacancy. It's a base he's left uncovered for too long.

Mike said...

Remember to Obama Roberts AND Alito were weren't centrist enough, so Kagan should be seen as a radical from that standard.

Balfegor said...

Remember to Obama Roberts AND Alito were weren't centrist enough, so Kagan should be seen as a radical from that standard.

No, his "center" is just way over in the Left.

slugger o'toole said...

Will he nominate another Harvard/Yale, Jew/ Catholic ? Doesn't seem very diverse.

Kirby Olson said...

I still haven't found out what church Wood attends. Are they really so stressed to let this out? what is it, First church of Satan or something?

Kansas City said...

No way a 59 year old will be nominated. The shambles of the supreme court game calls for a young left winger.

Kagan kicked the military off campus and I think she is a semi out lesbian and looks like one - not that there is anything wrong with that. For that matter, isn't there speculation that Sotomayer also is a lesbian? I really don't care (and I assumed Souter probably was gay), but for Obama, wouldn't the military and the lesbianism cause some problem/embarassment that is unnecessary in an election year?

However, does who is nominated really make any difference? There probably won't be a single important case where any Obama apointment would vote different than any other Obama appointment. Kagan and Wood likely would vote the same every time. That is how ridiculous the Supreme Court has become. It also applies to the conservatives. I would prefer 9 Kennedy's. They would get it right most of the time. Now, we need to depend on one Kennedy to get it right.

mesquito said...

Another Eye-talian Papist, please.

Luke Lea said...

It will be a Protestant, and a white one, if he has any political sense.

Fen said...

Go Elena. You kept those recruiters off Harvard campus.

But keep the Air Cap over Greater Boston. Harvard is full of hypocrites.

HDHouse said...

paul a'barge said...
"who kept military recruiters off campus. She should be turned down for a job catching dogs."

Oh Paul, Paul Paul....getta life please

HDHouse said...

Trooper York said...
" He should get someone like Lynn who actually actively works to destroy our country."

how do we certify you to be an absolute idiot? what is it with you? anyone who doesn't goose step and scream a right wing slogan is what? vorbotten? you nitwit

Jason said...

House, you frigging moron... it's not a matter of Lynn not goose-stepping and chanting right wing slogans, dipshit. It's that she was actually convicted of felony conspiracy and providing material support to terrorists.

She was sentenced to 28 months in prison and disbarred.

Are you really that stupid?



Is there

Dissertation Help said...

Nice article, i appreciate for putting this together! "This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided here. Keep it up!"
how to write annotated bibliography | dissertation | how to write an annotated bibliography

Dissertation Help said...

Nice article, i appreciate for putting this together! "This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided here. Keep it up!"
how to write annotated bibliography | dissertation | how to write an annotated bibliography

peter hoh said...

Can someone tell me which of these potential nominees is the most-liberal-choice-possible prior to her being nominated?

Trooper York said...

hdhouse said
"How do we certify you to be an absolute idiot? what is it with you? anyone who doesn't goose step and scream a right wing slogan is what? vorbotten? you nitwit"

So you see Lynn Stewart who actively conspired with terrorists is his kind of girl.

Every so often he lets the mask slip.

Hdhouse and his ilk are vile and evil people.

Trooper York said...

But like Lynn Stewart and William Ayers and “General” Kagan he is the heart and soul of the Obama administration.

May God protect the United States of America.

HDHouse said...

Trooper York said...
"May God protect the United States of America."

from whom Trooper? Nazis?

Trooper York said...

No hd, you and your fellow travelers who would destroy us from within.

You have your Trojan horse inside the walls of government but you must know that it did not end well for the temporary victors. But they did sack a great city on the hill.

May God protect the United States of America.