Link. The GOP takes control at 218, and they're up to 219.
At the NYT — here on Tuesday morning, a week after Election Day — we're locked in a state of wistful wondering....
You can't attribute the difference to California's agonizing slowness in vote-counting. The 2 news sites are looking at the same public information. It is journalistic/commercial decision-making on display, but impossible to tell whether either site is doing anything wrong. Personally, I assume both sites are attempting to feed the emotional needs of their readers, and they've just got different readers. But maybe one is adhering to higher principles than the other.
Posts
103 comments:
has the NYTs even called the election for Trump, yet?
Count every vote, regardless of when it was manufactured.
Speaking of higher principles. Has the New York Times re-taken its position that the filibuster is a critical check on the tyranny of the majority? They flip-flop on this issue with every change in the political winds.
DDHQ has it as RCP has, so assume they are correct.
Have they even called 2016 for Trump yet...?
Dissent is patriotic again, boys...!
and what about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
have they agreed, that that was something that they'd NEVER supported?
Imagine that, as the Dems advocated, we had abolished the Electoral College and went with popular vote. If the race was even slightly tighter we would still not know the outcome, waiting on the California mail-in count. With all the mistrust inherent there. There would already be rioting outside of the tabulating centers.
The only open question is whether the Republicans get 221, or 222 seats.
Never saying a bad word about the NYT again.
First - wordle.
But more importantly, they kept me sane election night with their needle. Their needle called it early for Trump and kept adding electoral votes to his total. Thank you NYT.
It’s fair to point out RCPs geographic color map distorts because small population victories mean disproportionally larger areas turn red. This is a more accurate representation of what happened in the 2024 election and compared to the color map it’s way worse for Democrats…
You’re right Eva! Their webpage and needle graphic was once again accurate and timely compared to everything else…
In other news, can someone on God's green earth explain to me why anyone within Trump's inner circle is still talking to Maggie Haberman ?
My take is that electoral reform is needed. Why does it take to long to count votes in the US? Arizona - a week on - has only just finished. I think that in early 2021 the Democrats proposed a complete revamp of voting, so they should be up for reform as well, surely. Key points would be: Voting in person on the day preferred, but I understand the ballots have lots of choices, not just Senator, Representative and President, so maybe Early Voting to ensure everyone can vote. Postal votes (you can tell I'm from the UK) have to be with the electoral authorities by close of voting on voting day. Late votes don't count. Voter ID required - straight forward in the UK, so can't see why it won't work in US. No drop boxes or ballot harvesting.
Expect to see more of that kind of outreach to the craycray. Unfortunately it’s part if their style...
Can't we all just get along?
Heh.
All off your ideas are popular among Republicans (and probably among many Democrats, as well). But voting reform won't happen with the filibuster in place. My proposal--give the Democrats six months to work with the Republicans in amending the Constitution to require the legislative filibuster in the Senate. On Day 183, either the filibuster is permanent (as a Constitutional reor the Republicans blow it up and pass their agenda. The Democrats' heads will explode. Their plan is to wait until they have the White House and both houses of congress--then blow up the filibuster and cram down their agenda (DC and PR states, pack the Supreme Court, unlimited voter fraud, more "rights" for non-citizens and non-taxpayers with the remaining tax payers to throw the party.
All off your ideas are popular among Republicans (and probably among many Democrats, as well). But voting reform won't happen with the filibuster in place. My proposal--give the Democrats six months to work with the Republicans in amending the Constitution to require the legislative filibuster in the Senate. On Day 183, either the filibuster is permanent (as a Constitutional reor the Republicans blow it up and pass their agenda. The Democrats' heads will explode. Their plan is to wait until they have the White House and both houses of congress--then blow up the filibuster and cram down their agenda (DC and PR states, pack the Supreme Court, unlimited voter fraud, more "rights" for non-citizens and non-taxpayers with the remaining tax payers to throw the party.
For the Times to not have "called" Washington District 4 yet where there are two Republicans running against each other, tells you all you need to know.
The NYT is likely copying the Associated Press map It could be going the other way, though.
It looks like in some cases, such as the House race in IA-1, that some media are waiting for official vote canvases, certifications, or the time period for recounts to run out.
Begich should hold his lead in Alaska, but of the five undecided races in California, Republicans are ahead in only two. Of the two, I feel good about Steel’s lead in District 45, nervous about Duarte’s 2000 vote lead in District 13 because only 57% has been counted. District 21 might yet go Republican, because the Democrat’s lead is narrow and on paper it should be a Republican district surrounded by Republican districts.
Maine District 2 is a disappointment.
So most likely we will see Mike Johnson herding 221 cats versus Jeffries, backed by Pelosi, with 214. The problem for Johnson — and therefore Trump! — is that Democrat members of the House display extraordinary party discipline. Moderate “Blue Dog” Democrats have voted for things that they had to know would cost them re-election, but vote the way Nancy told them is precisely what they did. The contrast with Matt Gaetz and Nancy Mace and other members of the Freedom Caucus being able to run McCarthy out of government is pretty stark. (One of Gaetz’s allies here in Virginia lost his primary and the district will be represented by a saner Republican.)
…while dreaming of strategy keep in mind the RINOs are still present and a presence in the Senate. They have only two agendas, one is keep the money flowing and two is obstruct everything else…
CNN has called more races 215 GOP, 206 Dem leaving 14 races not called ... 7 from each party. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.
I’ve been tracking remaining races by county.
The NYT, for the first time, shut down their normally very useful county plus district breakdowns as soon as they realized Trump won. Then they called almost every race where Democrats were leading in the House while withholding every single California race where Republicans were/are leading, two by undeniably winning margins.
Math.
Yet they had staff to dedicate to some dilletante child of diplomats hag whine about the carbon footprint of mansplaining Burning Man attendees as she travels by air constantly to take pictures of monkeys.
I couldn’t invent a more perfect picture of the femidevolution of the NYT if I cared to try. They must have the few remaining men pissing off the roof by now.
Except Krugman. Krugman has always just peed under his desk.
And the number of USSC Justices shall remain at 9, just like God intended.
While we’re being critical I’m exasperated the sources get away with the term ‘battleground state’. It is a manipulative, editorially-charged concept. AP shows Florida and Nebraska as battlegrounds but not New Hampshire or Virginia or New Mexico. Absurd. If you want to boost your credibility a bit do away with the term…
This economist just choked on his coffee 😅
The New York Times thinks a scoop is what Joe Biden is having for dessert.
Look to Florida. We learned our lesson a long time ago and now have the best election process in the country. Too bad the blue states won't even consider investigating how it's done.
Very funny, Mr. Forward.
Ah, give them their flop sweat. The election ain’t over until Roxanne Gay crayons something in.
that DOES make it depressing for the Democrat Party.
i guess The Problem with using fake votes (in 2020), is that you HAVE TO be able to use fake votes from then on..
WHERE ARE THOSE 13 MILLION DEM VOTERS? WHERE IS INGA?
were they raptured?
The Democrats have the tactical advantage of nearly a century of operating purely transactional coalition politics. How else do you get Northern liberals and Southern segregationists to vote the same way? The old GOP coalition of pro-business, pro-defense, and pro-Christianity never had to do the kind of horse-trading and vote-whipping necessary to keep all the ducks in a line, and are still expecting a degree of ideological conformity that is going to be unusual going forward.
“They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.” – Often attributed to Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand
https://victorhanson.com/the-fault-dear-democrats-is-in-yourselves/
The WSJ (news division) hasn't called that one yet either. Which tells you all you need to know
Gaetz is scum. I’d still vote for him if I lived in his district, but I’ve spent time in his company as a guest, and he is dirty.
Maine is inexplicable. Calling and recalling races for over a week. Looking for wet ballots?
But I think now the Republicans are stable to pull it off. We’ll see what shenanigans California can pull today, though.
I think they need to be added to the scrutiny of the Voters’ Rights Act. We labor under that here in Georgia, which is absurd.
1A-1 is waiting for the recount.. Then the re-recount..
MM is (now) up by several hundred votes.. Watch how the People's Republic of Johnson County skews that one. In 2020 MM ended up winning by 8 votes?
(i live in NE iowa, which is now called 1A-2)
The difference may be just a matter of personnel. NYT undoubtedly has far more than its share of staff members ensconced behind locked doors with teddy bears, coloring books, and chocolate chip cookies. With half your newsroom rebounding between thumb-sucking catatonia and screaming, thrashing rages, who has time to tabulate votes?
They certainly haven't called 2020 for Trump.
Yet.
Kamala Harris ONLY won states where there is no Voter ID and she won EVERY state with no Voter ID.
Trump has a clear problem to solve.
The CIA, FBI and NSA have Trump's phone bugged. THEY talk to their imbed, Maggie Haberman.
Decision Desk HQ has the same result this morning as well.
Ask the Dumbocrats. We are prepared to accept their unconditional surrender but they should not dawdle. Our patience is not unlimited.
Babylon Bee for the win this morning: “Congressional Republicans Say They’re Working Hard To Figure Out How to Squander the Next Two Years.”
Sometimes, denial is just a river in Gaza.
New Mexico needs to be investigated. Trump improved his vote totals from both past elections, but didn't win a single county? Bullshit. The corrupt and criminal DNC has been at work there undermining fair elections since Bush won in 2004.
Has Schumer relented and invited Senator-elect McCormick to orientation yet? Not how to show an interest in national reconciliation.
Pay attention. This is how to gripe…
NYT: If you close your eyes tightly and lie very still, it's possible that the monster under your bed isn't real.
Yes.
Yes, saw it on the news about an hour ago. Both McCormick and Gallego have been extended invitations.
Honest elections would mean forty years in the wilderness for Democrats.
The NYT didn't create Wordle, it just bought the creator out. However, they didn't stick it behind a paywall, so credit where it is due.
Decision Desk has it 219R. 210D.
"It’s fair to point out RCPs geographic color map distorts because small population victories mean disproportionally larger areas turn red. This is a more accurate representation of what happened in the 2024 election and compared to the color map it’s way worse for Democrats…"
The NYT map that I posted is population proportionate.
Republicans are winning the House, whether you go by the Real Clear Politics numbers or the New York Times. It looks like the NYT is following the AP, as is Fox News. Newsmax and RCP are on the same page - who is following who? The narrow margin in the House is an inconvenient fact, however, for those calling 2024 a Trump landslide.
from insty:
"It Wasn’t an Election. It Was an Intervention.
Trump drove so many mad, from the Never Trumpers to the Woke Left, because they destroyed themselves trying to destroy him. Their biggest problem was that they were never fighting the real Trump. They were fighting one they invented, a supervillain whose mere presence could end democracy itself."
Looking at the CNN website it appears that WA-4 is lagging well behind most other WA districts in counting votes. CNN has made a call in WA-9 which has a similar percentage of votes outstanding but the Dem is winning 70-30 there.
This reminds me of how the weather forecast babes always predict mountains of snow and then we get 1/2”.
They just want to keep those clicks coming as long as they can.
Good, othewise Trump would've been impeached two days after he took office. You'll notice that when Republican House impeached mayorkas for not enforcing the immigration, Schumer just laughed and refused to have a trial. And McConnell the weak-kneed goober said ZERO.
You can be sure that if the D's get back the House and impeach Trump, the R's in the Senate wont refuse to have a trial. Instead, they will harrump about "their constitutional duty". what a bunch of backstabbing losers.
I have it on good authority (cough*Inga*cough) RCP is right-wing and can't be trusted.
That is a monster problem that the Electoral College solves. Imagine a nation-wide recount. Shudder.
Yup!
Maine #2 is still undecided? As the country goes, so goes Maine. Knock on wood.
"But maybe one is adhering to higher principles than the other." Our host is offering up sardonic comedy gold lately.
Wait, I thought they were a satire website?
Personally, I assume both sites are attempting to feed the emotional needs of their readers, and they've just got different readers. But maybe one is adhering to higher principles than the other.
Well, this is a question that we can answer in 2 weeks. If any House Seat that RCP has called flips the other way, they screwed up
If none do, then the NYT was simply pandering to left wing readers who wanted to feel better about the election for as long as they could
The NYT map that I posted is population proportionate.
The RCP map tells a story the NYT map misses. It demonstrates the cultural divide in the country. Democrats own the urban areas, Republicans, the Rural. In places like Washington, Oregon and California, this means that the urban folk dictate to the rural folk how to live. Part of Trump's appeal is that he is speaking for the scattered people who feel railroaded by policies driven by cities that are 80/20 liberal to conservative. It will be tough to come together with such a stark divide.
What makes you think they are talking to Maggie?
Her claim? that's pretty silly of you to believe that
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The Office, the Senate & the House: be your best self, DT. Look ahead, not behind.
I can't say I was surprised to see Fox News calling Arizona for Harris this morning.
Demonstrably true. And consistent with their past practices.
Colorado needs a look. Since mainly postal voting it's gone from leans Republican to safe Democrat. In fact, isn't it odd that Colorado is the only state that went bluer in the whole country?
Alaska is uncalled because Begich has to get over 50% to avoid the second choice tally. He will likely win anyway, but there are enough 3rd party votes to theoretically throw the seat back to the Democrats.
It would, however, be a kind of cosmic justice if Begich lost via ranked-choice voting.
Inga is holed up somewhere praying the provisional vote count somehow saves Harris' campaign.
So, one of the stories about the Pennsylvania Senate race I read on Sunday was illuminating. There are only about 18,000 valid votes left to count in PA as of last night- the uncounted absentee vote, but there are reportedly 70,000 provisional ballots. One of the quotes from the Bob Casey campaign was a kind of Kinsley gaffe- "we have counties calling up every day telling us they have found more votes." That sounds about right for Democrats.
Trump won over half the counties in New Mexico- that map is only of the congressional districts and those are highly gerrymandered to help Democrats hold all three house seats. The metropolitan area of Albuquerque seems like it has been divided into all three districts.
True
Trump popular vote now at 50.3%
Close to 5 million votes still to count in California where ballots mailed last Tuesday will be counted if arrive today
About half that if you believe California's own data.
Trump talks to her. They exchange information. Transactional relationship in which both get what they want.
There is a pony in that shit somewhere, Readering.
Good to know. Apparently a big part of the delay is matching voter signatures on envelopes with what's on file.
Now that 2 members have been picked for executive positions Speaker as asked Trump to stop doing that given narrow margin in House. Senators can be replaced at once, special elections needed for House seats.
The good people of California elected Adam Schiff to represent them in the US Senate.
Words fail me.
New Mexico is gerrymandered to help the Dems? I was assured only Republicans do that. Quick, someone get the fact checkers to call the DNC to get the truth.
"Find votes". That phrase somehow sounds familiar.
Ha. You ain’t seen griping yet. I’ve hate-subscribed to the NYT for so long my login isn’t even my email. Every few years they have to re-grandfather me in. We need to go after Maine, California, and Colorado to clean up their federal elections. Forget New Mexico. In fact, give it back to Mexico. California too. Let’s see how they like it.
It might even be hilarious.
Funny.
For the Times to not have "called" Washington District 4 yet where there are two Republicans running against each other, tells you all you need to know.
It's not quite that simple. Yes, the seat will be red. But it involves the only Republican (Dan Newhouse) who voted to impeach Trump and survived in 2022.
The narrow margin in the House is an inconvenient fact, however, for those calling 2024 a Trump landslide.
I suppose that's one way to cope with the fact Trump won the Electoral College, Trump won the popular vote, Republicans increased their seats in the Senate and Republicans look to increase their seats in the House.
"Hey. Even though we only lost every quarter - and were outgained in total yardage - we still managed to lose by less than a touchdown."
"Hey. Even though we only lost every quarter - and were outgained in total yardage - we still managed to lose by less than a touchdown."
Once the Dems are unable to bribe the refs anymore- I mean, voter ID is required, let's see how these things all shake out.
It figures that California would elect that lying sack of Schiff. For once in my life I was rooting for a Dodger when Steve Garvey got the Republican nomination.
Thank goodness this election Oregon rejected measure 117 and ranked choice voting.
One reason Reynolds vs. Sims hurt the country. I've met many a city born person who has never lived anywhere but and has only passed through rural areas on the way to other cities- or flown over them. It is entirely possible to live in New York City or other metropolitan areas in the USA and around the world and never leave. For any reason. Not possible in ruralville. Even for the Amish.
Unless you've actually lived in both- it's not really possible to understand the differences. I've lived in both. And suburbs. And on the East and West coast and in between. And 4 of my 5 children are in 4 other states. And in the North and South. There are differences there also. I've had discussions with locals here in CNY about why it's cheaper to build in the South- things they should understand and don't The simplest- water lines don't have to be 6 foot underground to keep them from freezing. There is no frost line you have to make sure your footings are below. Little things.
I think the time lag in California is the mail in ballots. They need to be postmarked on or before election day and the state allows seven days after the election for them to be received. And then, after the seven days, they need to all be counted. So there's at least an eight day lag built into the system.
In all honesty, I never saw one add for Garvey. (And the news media was not going to give him any free publicity.)
One state allows until the 15th for stateside mail-ins and a Nov. 20 for out of country. Maine, I think.
Hell, even with their absurd weighted voting I could finish their count on the back of a brown paper bag using a pencil and algebra by noon today.
It’s not like a lot of votes are left in places like Sheepskit.
Why anyone trusts a place that names its towns after a bacterial skin disease that afflicts sheep belies comprehension.
Then again, I literally live at the end of Wit’s End Drive. Surrounded by sheep. Who make good neighbors. They’re very quiet. They’re like giant feral rabbits, and when they escape, which is constantly because my neighbor is careless, they eat poison oak and invasive privet. Except that one time my Martha Stewart wicker porch furniture.
Despite these distractions, Georgia really got its shit together this election. Even earliest results ever in the usual suspects: Fulton and DeKalb counties.
Post a Comment