"... in heavily Republican Montana, also seems to be gone.... In theory, Democrats could hold 50 seats and break ties by sweeping every other contested race and deposing either Rick Scott in Florida or Ted Cruz in Texas.... It is possible Cruz will be upset, but the chances that occurs and Democrats hold on in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — all of which appear closer than Texas — are remote at best, and fantastical at worst. The race for House control remains a toss-up. It is possible that Trump would have to contend with divided government. But it is almost certain Harris would do so. That means that her legislative ambitions are largely dead on arrival.... Harris is not going to be enacting new social programs, and her latitude in confirming judges and even picking a cabinet will be tightly constrained..... Trump is a different story.... The options on the table in all practicality are Harris governing in conjunction with Republicans, or Trump implementing his unfettered vision of American Orbanism."
Writes Jonathan Chait, in
"The Election Choice Is Divided Government or Unrestrained Trumpism/Harris won’t be able to implement her plans. Trump will" (NY Magazine).
To restate that argument: Don't worry that you don't know who Kamala Harris really is, because whatever plans she might be hiding will never be revealed.
And speaking of Ted Cruz, here's
a bumper sticker my son Chris photographed in Austin, Texas 2 days ago:
Posts
91 comments:
"Orbanism"? Cute, but silly. Nice try, Chait.
"Harris is not going to be enacting new social programs"
Unless they just issue orders and commands, updated regs and GC Opinion Letters, law suites and threats, which seems to be the fashion for the Executive Branch these days.
Re-opening the border seems like a very easy thing for her to do.
I looked up the sticker (available on Etsy):
“these bumper stickers have been around for years, I remember seeing it on Tumblr in high school. It was around the same time the zodiac killer joke was happening. They are vaguely correlated in that the humor is in Ted Cruz doing something that doesn’t align with his demeanor. It kind of turned into a genre of meme for a while.”
As the GOP demonstrated during Trump's first two years, they cannot agree among themselves. It's still divided government, but within a party instead of between parties.
But as Democrats showed during Biden's first two years, they can and will ram through their agenda with the slimmest of majorities using reconciliation.
I voted for Ted Cruz in the 2016 Republican primary. He was clearly the smartest of the group by a wide margin, and his values were most closely aligned with Conservatism. In hindsight I am extraordinarily g;ad that Trump won. Ted Cruz lacks the political skill, deftness, and tenacity that Trump has. Trump has that energy in the executive that is too be valued.
Ted Cruz would work much better than J.D. Vance would as a target for the "Weird" pejorative.
Does this doofus think the bureaucracy will fall in line and obey Trump? We saw that didn't happen in 2016. Expect slow walking. Expect CBP One app to be developed even as Trump is in charge....because the bureaucracy is so large no one can control it. CIA has exactly two appointee to manage it for example.
Trump allowed every Hawaiian judge to stop many of his policies.
At most he will deport the million people who already had their final court case and maybe some criminals.
Ted Cruz was supposedly to lose Beto. It didn’t happen. The race is close in Democrat leaning polls, but Cruz still leads and will win. Allred’s campaign is weaker than Beto’s.
for example do we think the Democrats in the Senate will allow our asylum laws to be changed to stop country shopping?
Doubt it.
did not know Senate Seat were numbered => have any been retired as historic?
I should have just clicked on your link!
I concur with Vault Dweller. I also voted for Cruz in the 2016 Texas Primary (at that point it - was either him or Trump). But like Vault, I am also glad that Trump won. However, I think Ted would make a great Supreme Court justice.
-Mark (no, not that Mark)
Unrestrained Trumpism. I don't care about breaking a few eggs along the way anymore. They don't. I want scorched fucking Earth. I want tweets promising to move to Canada. I want tripwires in the laws that will be written that hamstring these traitors for decades after Donald is long gone.
"The options on the table in all practicality are Harris governing in conjunction with Republicans, or Trump implementing his unfettered vision of American Orbanism."
Jonathan, I am already voting for Trump and the Republican senatorial candidate in my state. You don't have to sell me.
It is amusing how the bête noire of the European Union has become the boogie man for progressives in the United States. Deep down the current-ruling elites both here and in the EU know that their own agendas are not popular, but they will not address the issues that the public actually cares about, especially mass immigration of unassimilable populations hostile towards western culture.
They will not expel the unsavory elements from their own parties, even as they hyperventilate over unsavory elements in the alleged far-right parties–any coalition to hold back the evil populists who are supported by the people who no longer want to accept the tutelage of their supposed betters.
Another way to restate the argument: even if you don't vote for Harris, vote Democrat down-ballot.
The Republicans might flip Ohio.
the notion that Trump is going to pass some sweeping agenda (let alone, American Orbanism?) with bare majorities is dumb. Republicans can barely stick together on anything and Trump isn't the uniter he could have been.
Same here on Cruz in 2016. Didn't think Trump was a Republican. He earned my vote in 2020. I voted for him in the primary this time. I was very disappointed that there were candidates in the Republican primary that didn't condemn the lawfare against Trump, seeing it (in my opinion) as a way of garnering primary votes. Any Republican who doesn't understand that the media will treat EVERY Republican unfairly, not just Trump, and should denounce it is not worthy of winning. Haley & DeSantis...they would treat you the same way if you were winning. Hopefully DeSantis learns that lesson. His relatively silence and weak response ruined him for me...and entering the primary I really wanted him to win.
Seems like Democrats have been talking about how beatable Ted Cruz is for most of my adult life.
I generally prefer divided government. Gridlock is good and each party has a role in restraining the extreme tendencies of the other, but there really isn't a lever of power I'd be comfortable giving to the Democrats right now. If they hold the House, they'll make the next four years a parade of impeachment indictments over...whatever. If they hold the Senate, Trump will never staff the executive or judicial branches.
Much as I hate to say it, I think our choices are:
1) A Democratic government that functions all too smoothly,
2) A divided government that doesn't function at all, or
3) A Republican government that loses it's way from time to time.
Door number 3 is the only sane option.
"Unrestrained Trumpism"?
I'm looking forward to the Time and Newsweek covers showing Trump as the new FDR.
If those numbers hold out, we are going to suddenly see a lot of people change their minds about the wisdom of the filibuster.
The division is between a green Green deal in Karma-lot and a great deal trumpeted by the poor, rich, and urbane alike.
I love “ American Orbanism”.Could that label replace MAGA?
"Now is the time to send hurricane relief supplies.
To Russia.
by Donald Trump "
Don’t bother voting for her ladies, she’s gettin nothin done…
Kinda like when a R runs for MA governor. The MA voters know they can elect the R governor, since with super D majorities in senate and house, the governor is mostly symbolic.
No matter the composition of the Legislature, Harris will be elected with "a mandate for change" to be carried out by any means necessary "to fulfill the will of the voters".
Trump's real work is in the Executive Branch, which will not involve either house of Congress.
I thought Trump might nominate Cruz to the Supreme Court. Seems a better fit.
I agree. See above.
The Argentina guy is the model.
Yeah, Chithead fails to mention that.
Austin TX is like Athens GA; True Blue
How can anybody seriously want NEW social programs? It's as if the last 50 years never happened.
Unconstrained Trumpism really just means unconstrained normalcy, or unconstrained common sense. It's far from the nightmare Chait is implying.
"'Orbanism'? Cute, but silly. Nice try, Chait."
All the cool kids (by cool we mean delusionally narcissistic) hate Viktor Orban because he thinks Hungarians ought to have a state of their own where they make the laws and revenues are used to directly benefit Hungarians only to the exclusion of intruders.
If Trump wins and the GOP takes the Senate, but loses the House, that seems like a recipe for Maximum Chaos. The Dems will be in a panic over the thought that Trump will be able to get his appointments confirmed- executive and judicial. My guess, the Dems would try some shenanigans over the electoral vote count, followed by endless impeachments in order to shut down any other Senate business.
Mutaman, you should send your relief supplies to Ukraine. The Biden, Biden, Harris regime has been perpetuating the slaughter in this war. Peace was at hand and this regime wanted no part of it.
"...and Trump isn't the uniter he could have been."
The GOPe-ers (about half the elected republicans) are basically dems or more interested in sidling up to dems/media or getting their establishment payoffs or compromised by the deep state, given what policy positions they run on compared with how they end up voting.
Naturally, that too must be blamed on Trump.
McConnell delivered $10million to the "independent" Murkowski campaign to attack the actual nominated republican in that race.
Murkowski wins the race and opposes Trump.
Darn that Trump for not being the uniter he should have been!
LOL!
Chait is good with the silly and inane. He’s a Democrat, through and through.
To paraphrase Ann Richards, “Kamala Harris, she can’t help it. She was born to have Willie Brown’s johnson in her mouth.”
They don't like Orban because he was right about Ukraine and the war.
I was looking for the law passed by Congress which has all but outlawed the internal combustion engine by 2030. Oops! There isn't one! He just wrote an executive order!
DJT Media is up 17 and a half points today. 🤔
How strange. Media has been assuring me all year that Dems are taking the house and the senate is a toss up. What’s changed?
In reality, unless there is a hidden landslide brewing, a divided government is by far the likeliest outcome regardless who wins. But I get where Chait is coming from. He’s a Democrat and he want to help democrats win.
Trump is doing Madison Sqaure Garden NY and a California arena? He must have Harris campaign wondering; what the hell is going on?
Indeed. Shut up and take my vote.
check that... it's actually 24 points up.
I find it interesting that the House is expected to flip 'Blue' this year. I wonder why this is? What parts of the country are thrilled right now with the way things are going, and want more of it? What parts don't think they're getting enough, and want to supercharge the Biden / Harris miracle? Which districts are expected to flip? Grateful if anybody has some good articles to point to.
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin released her internal polling this week showing her campaign now thinks the race against Eric Hovde is a toss-up, and they have Trump up 3pts. They must be worried if they released internal polling.
At this point the only thing Kamala has on her side to tip the scale is absentee voter fraud. The only question is, without COVID, can Democrats pull it off again. Can they keep poll watchers at a ridiculous distance without social distancing rules?
This argument would convince me were it valid for more than two years. If nothing much gets done in that time, the "do-nothing Congress" argument could turn Congress over, and than we'd really be in trouble. But maybe two years is better than nothing and two years of a President Harris might make her predecessor look good. My state will vote for Trump for sure, so I don't much worry about who gets my vote.
Ignores the filibuster and I really doubt Republicans would unilaterally do away with it. Whoever is President, legislation only passes with some compromise (which I for one like). On the other hand, Harris is much more likely to govern by executive order and bureaucratic overreach.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-overtakes-trump-among-suburban-voters-reutersipsos-polling-shows-2024-10-10/
“WASHINGTON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump's advantage in the vast middle of American society: suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.”
Who knows how things will shake out?
You two don't seem to like representative democracy much. And why, Michael K, did you refer to Argentina, rather than Hungary?
You mean the Ted Cruz whose father Trump accused of being involved in the assassination of JFK?
No, but the massive influx of out of state donor cash had massive impacts on local races throughout the state. The most painful example was the ouster of Ed Emmett, the supremely competent County Judge (if you're from NotTexas, that means County Executive) of Harris County. He was replaced by a total nincompoop.
I discovered today that I'm in a different Congressional district again this election. I wondered why I hadn't seen my current congresscritter's signs in the neighborhood. Third district in three elections.
Flip Ohio? Trump won Ohio in 2020 and 2016.
I love how Cruz leans into the Zodiac thing. I think a sense of humour is mandatory for politicians - if they can't run things, they can at least amuse us with their wit.
The entire conversation is premised around the Senate. I know it's hard, but try thinking rather than responding with your viscera. Tom's clearly talking about Sherrod Brown's seat.
an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling shows So, they fudge the polling to get what they want. That's how I read it.
or Trump implementing his unfettered vision of American Orbanism." Would be nice if it happened. Too many RINOs in the House and Senate for it to occur.
One thing Trump should do is start firing high level civil servants- and challenge their job protection. They're all, each and every one, employees of the Executive branch. As such- there should be no laws limiting his ability to get rid of them for any reason at all whatsoever. Would be slog through the lower courts. but convincing the SC that civil servants working against the POTUS is a good idea would be a hard idea to defend using the Constitution.
You know, the four hundred billion we sent to Ukraine over the past several years, just to give Putin agita, might have been better spent on, I don't know, health care, or infrastructure, or maybe just to lessen the deficit. As a bonus, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, whom we were purportedly "helping" would be alive, and whole right now who are, in fact, dead or maimed.
"I'm Joe Biden, I'm here to help you."
WTF happened to the Democrats that this is where the priority of their true believers, like his truly here, are focused?
Ted Cruz, former law clerk for Chief Justice William Rehnquist, ended up “believing” that Mike Pence or Kamala Harris could unilaterally overturn the certified Presidential votes of the people of the United States, which tells you everything you need to know about his reptilian soul.
I hear you Gravel. I’m in Harris County. Lena Peron has got to go.
The only commercials for national candidates we get in Texas are for the Senate race. Allred is going all in on abortion in Texas, a subject in which the Texas Senator has no say. Another variation on the slams about him going to Can Cun during Snowmagedden. There weren't any flights to Houston, just like abortion a Senator has no direct control of anything related to emergency management. I he came home to Houston, the Sherrif, Police or National Guard would have had to drop valuable efforts to take him home, to sit in the cold without power.
It will be non-stop impeachments that go no where.
There will be a lot of split-ticket voting this year by disaffected Republicans. They will vote for Harris and balance that — by voting for a Republican House and Senate to help serve as a bulwark. You can see that in some of the polling already.
Hmmm.... RCP shows that there are 32 'Toss Up' House races, and that 19 of them are Democrat, 13 Republican. I guess it's just those are odds, without digging deeper into the individual races. More precisely:
Solid Dem: 171 Likely Dem: 13 Leans Dem: 12 Toss-Up Dem: 19
Solid Repub: 187 Likely Repub: 14 Leans Repub: 6 Toss-Up Repub: 13
Interesting.....
I was pretty sure bumper stickers were applied to bumpers. Or did the rules change?
Everyone here in the People's Republic of Austin enjoys bashing Cruz. “He went to Cancun!” during a winter storm… well, so did our (ex)mayor, during COVID.
I have a Nov. 6 coverage idea for media here: bathrobe-clad liberals resignedly bundle their Allred yard-signage and ram it into their trash bins down next to the Beto signs, then go back in the house.
wsw - In what area of Austin do you live?
If Trump wins and the Republicans lose the House we can look forward to Impeachments 3 & 4.
"...Trump implementing his unfettered vision of American Orbanism."
Sure. Whatever. I'm all in.
I suppose American Mileiism is too much to ask for.
Freder always shows up with a non sequitur.
"One thing Trump should do is start firing high level civil servants- and challenge their job protection." THAT might be a tough slog. My proposal works withing the rules. You can reassign, even move locations of Federal positions if you determine it is for the good of the government and the employee retains pay grade. SO bundle up the top few hundred of the entrenched slugs and move them to Arizona in the summer and North Dakota in the winter. Give them grandiose titles but duties limited to meetings and reports (direct to the round files). They would have no impact on policy, spending or other actual duties. Replace them with a much smaller number of people capable of performing as expected. Let the remaining underlings know the reassignments are NOT complete. Many would bail. Cutting WAY back on NGOs might also be necessary.
"...Trump implementing his unfettered vision of American Orbanism."
Etter than Democrat onanism.
I wonder if Freder is now stalking me. Freder also knows nothing about Argentina. "Representative democracy" is not what the Deep State is about.
Mutant Man is not interested in Americans. He's all about Trump. Pitiful, unless of course, he's a bot.
And your comment tells me everything I need to know about your intellectual depth.
I understand that there is a valid argument on that but, of course, you ignore it.
Maybe you can but not many are as dumb as you.
Remember "Abortion Barbie?" How'd she do?
The Romneys and Cheneys, maybe.
What about the Gabbards and other sane Democrats your party's embrace of totalitarianism and violence have chased away, Rich?
High point of Tammy Baldwin's term is when her campaign pushes out those advertisements for her reelection. Otherwise, Tammy don't do much for the peoples. Her sole achievement: I am the LGBTQ senator.
Yes Michael K, do make the case for Kamala Harris unilaterally refusing to accept the certified election results from the states and handing the election to herself.
LANDSLIDE cometh.
As I recall Georgia was All Democrat from 1865 thru 1976. And then along came Ronald Reagan. And Georgia was all Republican from 1980 Election on to today, with the exception of the stolen vote count in 2020. Get ready.
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