Quoted in "Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine" (NYT).
Silver intuits that the polls reflect a "nonresponse bias": "It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them."
Nonresponse bias can be a hard problem to solve. Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits....
Who would answer the phone these days?
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past....
In other words, polls aren't polls anymore. Pollsters just report what they want the answer to be... within the constraint of needing to protect their reputation. And that's why the answer is always it's absolutely completely tied down to the wire and anybody's guess. And here's Nate Silver boosting hope that Kamala Harris could win while reserving credit for himself — for him and his gut.
Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them.
For "one" of the candidates. As if we don't know which one! I'm looking at the betting average — where Trump is up to 61.0 (over 37.6) — and at the mood at campaign events. Compare Kamala's funereal sit-down with Liz Cheney and Charlie Sykes to the relaxed grinning orange visage rising over the ecstatic crowd in Greenville, North Carolina Monday night.
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It’s not only that Harris is downbeat and Trump is upbeat. It’s that all Harris’ surrogates are similarly downbeat and Trump’s surrogates are upbeat. (Biden and Walz seem exceptions, but both seem permanently unaware.)
I'd rather be in the Trump camp two weeks out, than in Kamala's.
But, hey. At least they got the day off yesterday.
I see an Althouse poll in our future. Probably be more accurate than all the professional pols combined.
I've been inundated with email, text and phone polls, I never respond to any of them.
Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards
by which, i assume they me the FRAUD cards
college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys
He claims without evidence. I find this hard to believe. Do they have more leisure time?
I watched that funereal sit-down with Liz Cheney and Charlie Sykes and I was fascinated by the gloom, which also pervaded the audience that formed the backdrop. I was moved to ask out loud: What if when you die, there's either nothing — death is death — or there's purgatory and it's sitting in that audience and it goes on for a thousand years, but after that, there's eternal bliss?
Yah, I don’t think Silver is part of any inner circle nowadays but that statement is an accounting of fraud from the left, complete with the loaded but qualified relatively decisive. IOW a leftie squeaker but don’t you dare try to look where the votes came from.
As Americans know, much rides on this election. What an understatement!
My prayer is that there are enough sane voters that will cast their votes for the man who has done the job before and done it well.
My telephone number alter ego ‘Khin’ has been bombarded with texts re polls surveys and have you turned in your ballot yet?
We just had an election here in British Columbia and the polls were bang on (pretty much dead heat between leftish establishment party and insurgent Conservative party).
So the pollsters still can get things right if they want to.
I got a call last week from someone who set up the conversation like a pollster might, but before that person could finish, I just said "I don't follow politics" and hung up. More likely it was a voter identification effort from one of the campaigns, but who cares either way? The polls are B.S. and who needs to be led by the elbow to the voting booth?
I received a Voting Report Card from a left wing outfit. Why? What business is it of theirs, of anyone but me, if I’ve voted? Crosses the line imho.
So the pollsters still can get things right if they want to.
That is a great comment.
That is funny. Thank you!
I used to get those from my friendly neighborhood union thugs, threatening language and all…
Think about this. The Dems tried to bankrupt Trump with civil lawsuits and throw him in jail. None of those cases had any merit and the trials made a kangaroo court look like the Supreme Court. We know essentially nothing about the two assassination attempts, but the rhetoric of “Trump is a threat to democracy” certainly played a role. And Trump fights on as a happy warrior purely out of love of country. He is the mentally toughest person of our age.
Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits
Innumeracy. They try to make that sound tragic but historically mid single digits is a high response rate for just about anything. It’s maddening for me to hear supposedly intelligent medical professionals lament they can’t get 100 percent participation in vaccines. If you want people to trust you open a friggin math book for chrissakes…
Silver has been simping for Harris a bit, repeatedly and inexplicably describing her as "a good candidate," but he seems to be trying to play it as straight as he can with his poll analysis. I think he's been a bit stunned by how viciously the left turned on him.
According to the powers that be, this kind of Trump victory would be impossible. Next thing, you'll tell me Indiana football is undefeated and ranked in late October, and we know that could never happen.
I think it's force of habit. People who have complete 16+ years of school are used to answering questions and are simply more comfortable doing it, regardless of the subject. Add to that the shift in political alignment based on when people stopped going to school and its implications, and I think he's on pretty firm ground.
Greg Kihn (1949-2024) RIP
"Who would answer the phone these days? "
Yes, what a transformation this has been. My land line rings and I don't even get up to look at the caller ID. The only question is should I pull them all out of the wall and throw them in the garbage, thereby eliminating a lot of meaningless distractions.
And yet, she persisted
And yet, she persisted
Yeah, he's pretty open about wanting Harris to win in his substack posts, and the recent post giving a couple dozen reasons why Trump might win was not well received by his Democrat subscribers, who mostly want their daily dose of data-driven cope. He admitted in another post yesterday that he'd have a hard time coming up with a similar list for Harris.
I'm absolutely baffled why Kamala would trot out Liz Cheney. Who is persuaded by her presence? It's the "people who hate Trump" tour. It's the anti-joy campaign. It's the "women you want to avoid" whistle stop.
What he neglects is that both Bannon-type faux "Republican Party reformers" from the right and Democrat operatives from the left are doing a good job of scaring Trump voters from even voting. This dual disinformation campaign is what has crashed and burned Trump and several decent Republicans in the swing states in recent elections, even as Trump himself contributed to it.
Anyone who doesn't vote because he has become convinced his vote will be stolen is an idiot and a dupe. I have no sympathy or patience left for the preening buffoons who fall for the operatives leading them by the nose.
It will be a deciding factor in this race, especially in Georgia. I intend to make sure anyone who skipped voting (which is public record) is exposed for the treasonous dupes they are, and work to keep them out of political circles they're not competent to participate in.
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust …
The obligatory “if you cannot express disdain for Trump himself then you must express disdain for his supporters — deplorables one and all.”
In other words, polls aren't polls anymore. Pollsters just report what they want the answer to be...
Congratulations, Professor! You broke the code.
Liz Cheney says only elect people who are good babysitters. What Pres has ever been good with kids in a non-creepy way? TR, that lovable man? I guess FDR. Lincoln. I guess she means Dick was good with the grandkids, and should have been Pres (officially).
Everyone in the room is thinking: don't mention hair-sniffing. Don t say hair, don't say sniffing. With Maria Shriver and KH both there, don t mention nannies.
Sitting in that audience would not be purgatory for me! It would be a thousand years of bliss. Kamala Harris deserves the gloom. Liz Cheney— would Purgatory provide me things I could throw at her for a thousand years?
I think Trump supporters are going to be in for a shock 2 weeks from now. Look for a repeat -- on steroids -- of the election night shenanigans that occurred in 2020 putting Biden in office. Only this time fraud will be an order of magnitude more brazen, which will be the point. The Democrats will be telling the entire electorate that it doesn't matter at all what the people want or who they vote for. Heads they win, tails you lose, and the news media will be happy to go along with it.
Indiana with two fewer losses than Alabama? It’s a sign of the Apocalypse!
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement
Anyone know what that was intended to mean (or how it is gauged)?
Not sure I would count Biden as one of Kamala's surrogates. If she goes down in flames, he can say he was right all along.
They are probably more likely to have a desk job and to work from home (and be available via landline).
Mike, it's not a value judgement, it just *is*. It's why the Democrats have historically needed a huge GOTV ground game because those are the voters who used lean Democrat. The GOP got away with poor GOTV efforts for years because their supporters were engaged enough to go vote on their own. If the GOP is going to capitalize on the on-going realignment we're going to have to accept that the marginal GOP voters act differently now.
"Big Mike said...
Indiana with two fewer losses than Alabama? It’s a sign of the Apocalypse!"
For a good laugh, look at Indiana's schedule. Their ranking is a joke. If they played Alabama, Alabama would be favored by two TD's.
Speaking only for myself, I lie to telephone pollsters and trash survey forms that arrive by mail. Luckily , so far, my front door has so far been un-knocked.
I answer the phone. Nothing bad happens. But they stopped polling us in August even though I acted undecided. Anyway, Rasmussen is best because you don't have to answer out loud. Public Policy Polling same.
But I did voter ID phone banking almost 20 years ago, and very few picked up even then .So these polls have been whack a long time. I really don't t think they can provide this service anymore.
@Tank, if Alabama can lose to Vanderbilt then they can lose to any Big Ten team (all 18 of ‘em). Except maybe Purdue.
Someone mentioned the event was the "Wives whose husbands have 'tagged' the nanny" support group.
@Tank, do as I did and get rid of it. About ten years ago Verizon went on a lengthy strike and days after it’s start a very heavy rainstorm cost us our landline. Verizon spent months demonstrating to us that the wife I can easily live with cell phones alone.
And just yesterday Slow Joe Biden himself expressed the opinion that Trump needed to be locked up.
Harris and Kamala are both melting down in public. They clearly know they are losing by over 20 million actual voters.
Nate doesn't have to rely on his gut for the numbers; he knows the numbers.
His gut is telling him that the post-voting adjustments will not be adequate to get the results that he so much desires in his heart, gut, and elsewhere.
"Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust..." Do we have data to support that or are we just going on vibes. Are we just counting vapid followers on TikTok? I don't even know if that is true anymore using that metric. I think the coasters undervalue the civic connections in small communities.
Early voting in PA had twice as many Dem votes as Repubs "mailed" in, and that trend will decide the election, as Dems harvest votes better than the Repubs. Harris in a squeaker, by as many mailed-in votes as it takes to defeat Trump.
I watched a bit of it as well and it was depressing. Harris' overarching message was "don't despair". Sheez! What kind of closing argument is that? What happened to the joy?
Also, I know it's been said many time before, but listening to Kamala is excruciating. She is simply awful.
Unbecoming looters. Orange u? Human rites are at steak. Unburden yourselfie.
The last couple of months, we've had a deluge of polling and fundraiser calls. They all get the Big Red Button, a nice feature on my Panasonic phone - the call goes straight to 'blocked'. Still..... the RNC has a bottomless supply of new numbers apparently. So I just keep on blockin'. Nope, not doing that.
I was part of a community group about 15 years ago and we did community survey that included an income question. Someone in the group remarked, “ wow, we have lots of people here who make over $100k.” (This did not match other income data for the area). I responded, “People who make $100k like to fill out surveys.”
Our “home phone” is actually cellular. It looks like a regular phone but is hooked to a box that receives the signals. For long conversations we prefer holding a handset rather than a cell phone. In my area the phone company has basically eliminated service through phone wires.
Joe Biden should be put down like the aging, toothless hound he is.
It is REQUIRED that Harris lose for Biden to be able to tell Barack Obama: "See, I told you at the funeral that I was better than her."
She must lose for him to be able to get to say that. So he's doing everything he can to make that occur.
One area election centers can tweak the vote is ballot reconciliation. Please mark your ballots clearly or the scanner kicks them out and recon teams have to look at them, figure out what the voter's intention was and make a new ballot.
I was the Republican at one of the tables last election. But there aren't enough of us because Republicans can't be arsed to do this work. Retired Democrat teachers and govt workers can and do.
This is standard illegitimate Regime activity. People know that if they publicly support Trump then murderous and violent people will mark them.
They know that our government allows these murderous assholes to roam and persecute enemies of the regime. They allow these scum bags to burn and loot with no repercussions.
This regime just allowed millions of criminals into the country, is giving them thousands of dollars each, and they are trafficking hundreds of thousands of them into sexual slavery.
Bill Gates is jumping in to make sure the Epstein Client list stays quiet.
Note to self: STAY ON TINA TRENT’S GOOD SIDE!
The CDC has just come out with a warning of e coli in McD burgers. Fear the Regime.
"even mine"
OK, no problem, mate.
We don't count votes these days we count ballots. If you want to know who will win the election ask the ballot counters.
Watch this Gutfeld episode for the truth.
The left are just assholes. That includes The Party/STate Run media.
The corrupt democrats are really going to have to work extra hard to steal the election from Trump this time.
Best Episode Ever
I live in a county of Tennessee that voted for Trump 2 to 1 in both of his elections. I do a lot of walking here in Oak Ridge and in all three campaign cycles, Democrat campaign signs in the yards are overwhelmingly dominant- I did a count a couple of weeks ago on a six mile hike and Harris yard signs won 25 to 4. I did a similar count on a different route in 2020 that was Biden, if memory is correct, that was 15-6. That should tell you something about response rates of the two sides- progressives seem to feel freer to express their political leanings than do conservatives. I suspect the same holds for telephone polls.
Bingo.
If this election were being held in 2016 or 2012, Trump would win 350 electoral votes and the popular vote by 3-4%. However, with mail-in-ballots, Trump will be lucky to win a bare majority of the electoral vote. Even with the favorable polls as of this morning with 2020 in my memory, I put his odds of winning at about 40%. You might think the Democrats wouldn't dare push turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia over 100% of the population of those cities but you would be wrong.
If you're casting your ballot with a machine that prints your choices onto a paper ballot, CHECK YOUR BALLOT before putting it into the scanner. Make sure your printed choices reflect your selections.
People put out signs when everyone else is putting out the same sign and when they are not afraid of having the sign knocked down. There's no deeper psychology to it than that.
Polls are different. When somebody from CBS or the NYT calls with a poll, of course conservatives or Republicans are going to be less likely to respond.
If DJT is such a threat as the other side argues, then D vote cheating to win is logical and proper right (In D eyes), correct? If DJT is another Hitler, then it is logical and proper (in D eyes) for asssassination attempts to occur, correct?
Talking to anyone on the phone these days is fraught with danger. With ai cutting up your conversation to create you on the phone for committing fraud, it is a risky thing to do.
Polls don't matter now, only votes. And hey, the Dem mail in ballot harvest in PA is going great!
"Democratic voters lead in both mail ballot requests and ballots returned as of Friday, with that party’s voters making up almost 58% of applications and 62% of returned ballots, according to the state’s data." That's about 1.2 million votes for Harris, lesss than 0.6million for Trump, when the mail in ballots requested so far are all accounted for. And there is a week left for the Dems to request ballots for registered voters who haven't asked yet, to create more perfectly legal votes for Harris. As many as will be needed plus a few more, I'd guess.
This is what I fear.
I get so tired of this endless talking about polls. Just shut up already with the horse race. The only poll that matters will happen on election day.
Furthermore, the D's have already started up their "fraud machine". Several fo the swing states have announced they wont have results for several days. Thats because the Democrat/Globalist Secretaries of State in GA, Mich, and Penn have to know how many votes that need to create to win.
And that aside, this will be a TURNOUT election. If the Demographics that favor Kamala turn out in greater number she will win.
BTW, Trump lost Pennsylannia in 2020 due to the mail in ballots. IRC, he got almost 55-60 percent of the voters who showed up to the polls on election day. He lost the mail-ins by enough to lose.
The D's have been given a liscence to create votes in places like Philadelphia. No one is going to check for vaild addresses, signatures, US citizenship or even that the person is alive. There are already stories of a hundreds of votes coming from vacant lots or a single apartment.
Who's going to audit them and toss them out? Not the Democrate Secretary of State!
California has a scandal. 30 millions ballots have been sent out, 7 million more than the total registered voters (23 Million). Can you say "voter fraud" boys and girls?
@Tank, BTW I did look at Indiana’s games. In seven games they’ve scored 341 points. An offense that averages almost 49 points a game is to be respected, as is a defense that gives the offense the ball regularly enough to score that often.
Momentum is overrated, but not insignificant. If there are any undecided out there, how they break in October is telling. In my lifetime, it was voters who decided in the final month that led to victory or turned a tight race into a decisive win: 1980, 88, 92, 2000, 2012 and 2016. in each of those races, undecideds broke 75-25 or better for the eventual winner.
Past results are no guarantee, but The Mo is all with Trump now. Let's see what happens.
Poll companies don't work for free. If they don't give you the answer you want, you are less likely to pay for the service.
Signature win over...Maryland?
@Tank Haven't watched Indiana play, but have watched Bama in all games. They peaked in the first half of the GA game and it has been downhill since. Milroe looks even worse than he did at the beginning of last year. Even I can pick out on the TV the open men downfield he can't find. The offensive line is a porous wreck. I would be hard pressed to bet on Bama until-unless- they turn the ship around probably with whoever the backup QB is and a running back who can do the "Derrick Henry" up the middle.
I've had the feeling that Harris is some sort of grand joke on the populace by the Powers That Be. "We can get this idiot 'elected' and there's nothing you can do about it."
"Liz Cheney says only elect people who are good babysitters."
And she voted for Joe Biden. Just one more piece of evidence that they take their weaknesses and do everything they can to tack them on to the other side.
Uh uh uh, uh uh uh uh uh…
Not to mention that mail carriers, who are almost all Democrats, simply toss absentee ballots from Republican areas. This was proven when a guy called every registered Republican in several swing states and asked them if they voted, and compared this to the actual number of votes that counted.
My gut tells me Oyuyuyuyuyuyuyuyuyuuuuuu…
Romulus killed Remus. Cleopatra killed Ptolemy. How many Roman Emperors had all possible rivals killed? Power is jealous of any possible rival, just read Richard III, it's a tale as old as time. The Democrats are in the process of killing the Republican Party because they cannot abide to share power. It's that simple, and nothing is going to change human nature.
…and this is the fatal error in ‘Time to Move On’- trust in the system is eroded.
We just had an election here in British Columbia and the polls were bang on (pretty much dead heat between leftish establishment party and insurgent Conservative party).
"Canadian Nice" again. We are not like you. We tell pollsters to go fuck themselves when they call.
The GOP got away with poor GOTV efforts for years because their supporters were engaged enough to go vote on their own. If the GOP is going to capitalize on the on-going realignment we're going to have to accept that the marginal GOP voters act differently now.
Low-propensity voters nowadays lean Republican.
College educated white Democrats are rabidly diligent voters, and while the poor urban minority half of the bimodal Democrat coalition is not, the union thugs and taxpayer funded NGOs that collect their blank fraud-by-mail ballots in exchange for a carton of Newports are certainly tireless on behalf of the Democrat ticket.
Shorter version: Who are these mysterious people who allegedly constitute half the electorate and claim to be our fellow citizens?
Can you provide a link for that?
In London they always had people with clipboards wanting to start up a conversation about political issues. I was content to politely decline while preserving my American fuck-off attitude. Surprisingly Brits of all types would stop and talk, debate politely even…
Social media has caused more symmetric information flows, and the populace has settled around a normal distribution. Anything before that was simply a consequence of asymmetry, where dominant parties could control narratives and access to information.
Now, with a near-constant stream of content that reinforces confirmation bias, voters are guided more by algorithms than by independent thinking. This illusion of choice, often referred to as ‘free will,’ has become curated by the digital ecosystem we inhabit.
The increasingly balanced split in votes reflects how people are nudged into predictable behaviors, rather than expressing truly free preferences.
It's amazing how fast she passed through Joy! to shouting Hillary-like to this glowering scowl. Much faster than we saw Biden progress through the stages of presidential grief.
It's my understanding that those numbers are actually significantly weaker for the Dems than in prior elections. Democrats in Pennsylvania REALLY front-load the early voting.
What does Croesus [Elon] want from Trump?
Disney/ABC/538/Silver
To misquote Catch 22:
Liz Cheney has a remarkable ability to get people to agree with each other. They all agree what an azzhole she is.
It will be interesting to see what illegitimate lengths Democrats will go to to make him wrong.
I was wondering if the lull is because democrat lawfare is needing to retool for the election. Previously, they were ready to fight the accusations of fraud that a losing Trump would bring. Now, they have to be ready to bring the causes of fraud to show that Trump really lost. In the interim, they need a little space for us to forget that Oceania was at war with Eurasia.
While leaning over the edge of the cliff considering whether or not to jump, America has not lost its way quite yet. We will soon find out. This election will set America's course for many years to come as to values, character and what comes first in public life. The choice could hardly be more stark---either rule of law applicable to everyone or the self-dealing cancer of unrestrained Trumpism.
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