Biden was up 6.0 points in Wisconsin in 2020 on October 5th, but he won the state with only a 0.63 margin. Clinton was up 5.5 in Wisconsin in 2016 on October 5th, but Trump won, with a 0.77 margin. How can Harris be looking at a win, when she's only up by 0.8? To believe the candidates are truly tied, you ought to see Harris up by something closer to 5 points.
Note that Harris needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump only needs to pick off one of those states. In all 3, Harris is far behind where Biden and Clinton were on October 5th. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 with a 0.72 margin. In 2020, Biden won it, but he had only a 1.17 margin, when the polling on October 5th showed him with a 6.6 point lead. As for Michigan, Biden won by 2.78 points, after showing a 5.8 lead on October 5th. And in 2016, Trump won Michigan — by 0.23 — after Clinton was up by 5.7 on October 5th.
Imagine if Harris were up by 5.7 in Michigan right now, 5.5 in Wisconsin, and 7.5 in Pennsylvania. The media would portray her as absolutely crushing Trump. That's what Clinton had on October 5th. Her supporters were very confident, calling those 3 states the "blue wall." And then Trump won them all.
Of course, Harris's advisers must see this. I presume that behind the scenes, there is panic, if not despair.
ADDED: Here's the headline at The Washington Post for you to read between the lines: "Harris is running a much bigger campaign than Trump. Will it matter? She spends three times as much, employs hundreds more staff and dominates the ad war. But the race is effectively tied."
She boasts more staff, more volunteers, a larger surrogate operation, more digital advertising, a more sophisticated smartphone-based organizing program and extra money for extraneous bells and whistles typically reserved for corporate product launches and professional sports championships. A Harris drone light show recently flew over Philadelphia. Her rally attendees often get light-up pop-concert bracelets. There are even plans in the works for a late October infomercial to air on swing-state broadcast networks.
Oh, no! Not the late October infomercial on broadcast networks! At some point, you've bought everything that's buyable. You've hired everyone possible....
“We always knew this would be a neck-and-neck race, so we built a campaign that can win a neck-and-neck race,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said. “Our strategy seems a lot more likely to be successful than the Trump plan to send a stranger to your door the month before Election Day. Voters can tell the difference between someone trying to earn their vote, and someone who takes them for granted.”
A stranger at my door. Thanks, but I don't answer the door. And I don't have broadcast TV either. But that's just me, an undecided Wisconsin voter.
Posts
109 comments:
A good point by Scott Adams yesterday. We know that the candidates produce their own “internal polls.” This can only mean that they don’t believe the public polls. They’re rigged.
It appears to show Clinton up 5.5 in 2016 in WI, making Althouse’s point more emphatically.
They fully expect to cook the vote again and get away with it again. The hanging the other day is a warning for anyone trying to grab receipts…
Statistical evidence public polling is bad to useless is what I see, and yet…
In 2016 the brilliant mathematicians made a fatal error in assuming Obama voters were Democrat voters. They oversampled Ds while enough of the Obama voters showed how much they loathed the Clintons…though not all of them stayed home. Weird…
"It appears to show Clinton up 5.5 in 2016 in WI, making Althouse’s point more emphatically."
Thanks for the proofreading. I'm typing in the dark at 6 a.m. Fixed.
Now, will the DNC/Intel cartel allow Trump to enter office? How long till the next cartel assassination attempt? Trump returned with Elon Musk yesterday to Butler, OH, the site of one of the attempts.
Just like the WNBA pollsters really are a disaster of ignorance and incompetence and bias.
Well when the party candidate is a crash-test dummy but less articulate with a door-stop for a running mate, you have to out-spend and out personnel your opponent cause this election is not going to steel its self. You need cash to buy votes and bodies on the ground to stuff ballot boxes!
Umm, the rally is later today, and is in Butler, PA.
Trump is the living embodiment of the First Amendment. That is why I am voting for him.
At some point, I suspect political advertising becomes counter-productive for some undecided voters, particularly when candidates deliberately ignore major issues. We'll see if turnout is down in the battleground states--if the boxes aren't stuffed. No Repub had better go home at 2 am.
The D’s learned from 2020.It’s better prep for the cheat if you go around saying how close it’s going to be than if you go around saying how you’ve got it in the bag. Then a miraculous tiny margin at 4 am the day after election day seems more plausible.
They dont have to convince the hardcore cheating theorists. They just have to convince the ‘reasonable people:’ judges, GOP congress members, anyone who might otherwise at least consider listening to the cheating theorists.
JSM
Thanks for the correction. For once, I might watch.
She is incapable of answering unscripted questions! We can’t have a president who can’t answer our questions, no matter how many people she’s hired to cover for her. That’d be insane.
All that money--all that advertising--is iipstick on a pig. But which pig will you vote for?
She has to spend three times as much to make a tie…
The implication of the headline is that money buys elections. More of that incompetence…or is the arrogance a residual of getting away with the frequency and magnitude of the whoppers they get away with?
If you try to scare people away from Trump, all you might really be doing is scaring them underground.
See also free speakers.
Undecided voter? What can we do to persuade you to vote for Trump? My pitch is this: If you think inflation was bad before, it will be much worse under Harris. Spending and the money supply will be turbocharged. Goldman Sachs says there is $1.2t in free money through 2032 with the IRA. Trump will stop that.
There’s a pollster who is a frequent guest on Charlie Kirk’s podcast who explained awhile back that the turnout models are totally chaotic in the Trump era, making polling of “likely voters” extremely difficult to predict. Then there’s the persistent bias of who responds to polls, which is white liberal women who love to tell you who they are voting for (unlike our host). Trump voters, when they answer the phone, are reluctant to. And historical models are useless so far as race is concerned because so many black and Latino voters have shifted to Trump. The sum of all the problems facing pollsters is that they will be wrong, how wrong is the unknown question. Which is why enthusiasm and turnout are extremely important this year. The goal for Trump is to exceed the margin of cheat in the battleground states, especially PA.
And then, of course, there is foreign policy. The Ukraine war will grind on. China will take over Taiwan. Iran might try to nuke Israel. You get the idea. War! What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!
The pollsters lose significant credibility if they systemically mis-estimate the support for one side or the other. One would think (I know, a leap) that they would recalibrate their methodology to reflect the biases of 2020 and 2016. They've had several chances to get it right.
“Our strategy seems a lot more likely to be successful than the Trump plan to send a stranger to your door the month before Election Day..."
Harris is the stranger showing up at your door a month before election day.
Smart point.
"me, an undecided Wisconsin voter". It is entirely remarkable to me that you can profess "undecided" at this point in time. I would be very interested to know what argument you would make for the election of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz? What good things do you imagine for the United States should she be elected?
In a fair election, I think Trump would win. But I worry that he’s not outside the margin of fraud.
I’ve said this here before. Many times. My family was involved in Philadelphia Democrat politics for decades, from the 60’s until well into the 90’s. The only thing that’s different now is that it’s worse.
Believe me when I tell you Philadelphia can produce as many votes as they need to make Harris the winner in Pennsylvania.
On Tuesday November 5th time will stand still in most if not all the states.
Its not fiction.
Reminder, Althouse has touted cruel neutrality in her blog.
Philadelphia: corrupt and content.
Although not as content as it used to be, the Great Hollowing continuing apace.
Ralph L. has a good point about the ads. At what point do they become counterproductive? I am at the point where I am thinking "You are annoying the duck out of me, just stop it already." Like harping on January 6th. That is almost 4 years ago. It's already factored in, I doubt many will be persuaded by anything else said about it.
So like driver in megacropolis
Unexpected events can/will have an impact. The horrific Fed response to Helene in NC is blowing up the web here in NC and other areas I imagine. Particularly as Blinken sends $157m to Lebanon, the purported dwindling funds for FEMA, just 5 days into this fiscal year is unconscionable. Plus, Elon has had to intervene to try to unblock aid to affected regions. Unacceptable, and it’s on Harris at this point.
My brother sent this to me last night. If the Blue Wall is down, they're looking at other states to help. I'm shocked a local news station did actual journalism. Non citizens given voter identification cards in AZ.
https://youtu.be/3LeCXPwiTss?si=iP9fj0dso83BtNs_
Kamala is running two kinds of radio ads on a continuous loop. In one she lists transparent lies about what Trump will do in a second term. My personal favorite is that he will make women register their pregnancies so he can put them in jail if they get their abortion one day past their state’s limit.
The second is her sunshine and lollipops ad wherein she tells us what she “believes”. The list includes everything up to but not including the Easter Bunny. I guess she forgot about him/her/they.
Both are retch inducing but apparently liberal women respond well to them.
I answer polls but I admit if they ask which one I'm voting for and I have to say the name out loud with my TDS husband sitting next to me, I'm going to prevaricate. He's old and sick and very excitable.
Iirc Rasmussen polls are automated and don't put you in this position. Same with Public Policy Polling.
Of course, Harris's advisers must see this. I presume that behind the scenes, there is panic, if not despair.
They're not panicking or despairing, and we all know why.
Your comment strongly reinforces Mosby's above.
Perhaps Althouse is undecided between Trump and not voting at all.
To any legitimate voter. You got kids? Grandkids? The Democrat party is the party of war. So if you vote for Harris be prepared to has your sons and daughters conscripted.
Harris freezing up and repeating the phrase "32 days" over and over when her teleprompter broke yesterday is hilarious. She is truly unable to think on her feet. I'm starting to come around to the idea that she might actually be dumber than Biden. It seems farfetched but she has not done one thing in her campaign to dispel the notion. Not one.
Well. Except for our current Democrat betters. They are relying on more war.
But they still require someone answering the phone.
If Harris-Walz "win," there are sure to be serious secession efforts. Starting in western NC.
If Trump wins, there are sure to be serious assassination efforts. Starting in Tehran.
"Why are you voting for Kamala Harris?"
"Because she's a woman!"
See what we're dealing with here.
If Trump wins, he is going to get stuck with all the fiscal bombs the Democrats set to detonate after the election. Buckle up.
Five times! Then as filler she blurts out "we are the underdog." LOL
And I believe that Elon Musk is positioning himself to run in 2028.
We've had a President for the last 4 years who can't answer our questions. It's possible to do that. Since Biden really isn't the President. They built him a fake White House Oval Office. Did you miss that?
Math and facts that are not in favor of the Left/denocrats are white supremacy and facist.
WOLVERINES! That's what they're making by trying to murder Trump.
Musk was born in South Africa. He cannot run for President.
@ Breezy - Cruel neutrality is not a suicide pact
--- She boasts more staff, more volunteers, a larger surrogate operation, more digital advertising, a more sophisticated smartphone-based organizing program and extra money for extraneous bells and whistles typically reserved for corporate product launches and professional sports championships. A Harris drone light show recently flew over Philadelphia.
If the electorate -- hell, we all know it's now the "electorate" -- is this dumb, the nation deserves what it gets from these people. Then a real Resistance will arise. But if they are so dumb as to waste it on super-D Philadelphia, there may yet be hope.
They're going to cheat again because that guy successfully put up cardboard over the counting room windows and nobody beat the sh|t out of him on live television. We're going to have to do that before they'd even consider stopping stealing elections.
Yes. But every once in a while she is forced to speak extemporaneously
They need to get 120% in Philly to offset the rest of the state.
Maybe she is trying to cipher out which vote leads to less chaos. Locally for her, probably Harris. Nationally, if there is to be a recognizable nation in the future, it can't be left to Harris and Walz. Unless she thinks they are puppets for the Obama Gang.
Kennedy won in 60. Then crossed the CIA and tried to pull out of Viet Nam. Got his brains spurted onto Dealey Plaza and his young wife's pretty pink dress.
Didn't stop Kenya's Barack Obama.
Yes! Please have Kamala's nasal, annoying voice say, "I approved this message," over and over in the last weeks. And use Hillary, too. #winning
Trump will not be signing any budgets.
Here in the North Atlanta suburbs we are being carpet bombed with ads. There are more Kamala ads but not more than one would think. There are some Kamala ads that are positive telling us she is going to give the middle class a tax cut and build 3 million houses. Trump has one positive ad about not taxing tips, overtime, and social security.
The interesting thing is that outside of the ads there is little indication that there is an election happening. I almost never see bumper stickers or yard signs which is not normal for elections around here.
The election is not discussed among normal people. The vast majority of people I know are not happy with the choices they have. Most of the Democrats I know will be voting for Harris. Most Republicans I know will be voting for Trump. In both cases most voters feel like they are being forced to Scott their ugly cousin to the prom.They will not actually be voting for a candidate, instead they will be voting against a candidate.
Even the courts might notice if big cities count more votes than there are voters.
I only have to watch the Savannah stations for an occasional sport but the ads are split fairly even with Trump +/- ads and Kamala +/- ads. Once in a while the Miss Lindsay ad with the one rehearsed sound bite the uttered with the intent of putting it in his reelection ad…
…I watch the Boston channels and see only a few President ads. Mostly ads for Kelly Ayotte for Governor and her opponent stealing Ayotte’s tax policy for her/them ad…
Next time, her left and right teleprompters will be independent, which should be fun if they can't get them in sync.
I think Trump leads by .5 at the Meadhouse.
The election is not discussed among normal people. The vast majority of people I know are not happy with the choices they have. Most of the Democrats I know will be voting for Harris. Most Republicans I know will be voting for Trump. In both cases most voters feel like they are being forced to Scott their ugly cousin to the prom.They will not actually be voting for a candidate, instead they will be voting against a candidate.
100%. I would also argue that the issues that matter most to me are not even up for discussion from either candidate, sad really, but not unprecedented.
"Harris is the stranger showing up at your door a month before election day."
If harris wins, there is a good chance armed strangers will be showing up at your door - and they won't be 'asking', they will be taking.
The polls overestimated Democrats in 2008, 2016 and 2020. The polls overestimated Republicans in 2012. There was very little polling bias in 2004, 2000 and 1996. And in our most recent election, in 2022, the polls were very accurate with just a bit of Democratic bias. So will this election be like 2022 or more like 2016 and 2020 when pollsters were anti-Trump?
“ Even the courts might notice if big cities count more votes than there are voters.”
The problem is the limited time between Election Day and the date that the election gets certified. And the lack of any clear remedies even in the face of clear and pervasive fraud.
The one thing that gives me hope is that some Democrats are beginning to act like Harris is losing. Bob Casey is running ads in PA touting his “working with Trump” on tariffs on China. No mention of Harris. Aligning himself with Trump.
But even if the polls are accurate, a one point polling miss (in Trump's direction) and he wins.
“Our strategy seems a lot more likely to be successful than the Trump plan to send a stranger to your door the month before Election Day. Voters can tell the difference between someone trying to earn their vote, and someone who takes them for granted.”
Confession by projection. Also, 'How dare the Republicans use our strategy for their cause?'
(D) Party canvassers have been circulating through neighborhoods since 2008, offering to assist people on choosing a candidate, and more recently, providing absentee ballot applications to be filled ion the spot.
Of course, Harris's advisers must see this. I presume that behind the scenes, there is panic, if not despair.
James Carville was on Smerconish this morning. Never heard any campaign operative talk as nasty and bitter. He even claimed that Melania's memoir as released just to cause divisiveness and chaos. Their internal polling must just not be in the toilet, it's got to be circling the bowl and about to head down the drain.
They are trying to create a. buzz for Kamala without substance. But most already have a hangover from the mistake of 2020 election of Harris/Biden.
Harris is running to be president of the college edumedicated women with economically useless degrees. Trump is running to lead America back to productivity and progress for the sovereign people.
Kamala has the support of Bruce Springsteen, the late night comedians, and the coveted endorsement of Taylor Swift. I don't know if such support changes anyone's mind, but Kamala is definitely the respectable choice, the one whose name you can say aloud. Trump is like the teen age lesbian category on Porn Hub. It's a popular category, but no one goes around bragging about how much they like the genre.
Also heard Axelrod on someone's podcast yesterday laughing about how many MAGA voters from North Carolina won't be able to get to the polls. He may be a sleaze but he's got better sense to say stuff like that, winning or losing. I think they've officially hit the Delta Tau Chi "Stupid and Futile Gesture" phase.
But that's just me, an undecided Wisconsin voter.
A luxury not everybody can afford. More power to you, Professor, but please consider your fellow Americans who can't weather another 4-years of this.
Here is a curiosity: my Dem friends believe everything the Harris campaign says about Trump (Project 2025!) and nothing about Harris (she doesn’t really believe that and she won’t do it). I suppose it goes the other way, too.
Lots of Trump/Vance yard signs here in the hinterlands, one Trump/Kennedy sign out by Gettysburg, and here in our university town, a few Harris/Walz signs including two almost billboard-sized ones in a corner house yard proclaiming "Patriots for Harris-Walz," and "Patriots for Bob Casey."
I'll be interested in how the voting goes in Pittsburgh and Philly this year.
32 Days until Kamala and her husband Q-up for vast political-based wealth and lucrative book deals... Plus many mansions.
Abortion.
Their internal polling from North Carolina must be horrible. Rahm Emanuel is infamous for saying, "Never allow a good crisis to go to waste." That's exactly what Harris has done with this hurricane. Instead of impressing people with her leadership in a crisis, she's done the opposite. I think she's written off my state completely. She doesn't care and she's spending her time and money elsewhere.
Trump has the endorsement of Scott Baio.Game, set, and match for Trump.
Both are retch inducing but apparently liberal women respond well to them.
I agree that the Harris ads are retch inducing, but if her focus is on getting liberal White women to vote, then she knows her campaign is in trouble.
In the next five to ten years SS and Medicare run out of money. This will necessitate immediate 20% and 10% benefit cuts respectively.
There is absolute silence from both parties on this impending disaster.
Why does nobody care about this?
In the next five to ten years SS and Medicare run out of money. This will necessitate immediate 20% and 10% benefit cuts respectively.
There is absolute silence from both parties on this impending disaster.
Why does nobody care about this?
Abortion and government employee. Nothing else matters except who counts the votes.
"At some point, you've bought everything that's buyable. You've hired everyone possible...."
But you haven't answered any serious questions and you can't even commit to a campaign slogan.
The $239 billion drained from Medicare by Biden/Harris won't help. "Harris's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) razzle-dazzle is not only costing seniors big money in delayed 'after the election' price hike skullduggery but also impeding the development of new drugs."
There are states that don’t count the mail in (absentee) vote until Election Day. I expect we’ll not know the election results until Saturday the 9th .
Mail-in ballots: When every state starts counting
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/politics/mail-in-voting/
How Vote Counting Rules Have Changed in Key States Since 2020
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-vote-counting-rules-have-changed-key-states-2020
My message to undecided voters is that indecision is a reasonable response when it's obvious that, no matter who wins, the country is headed for trouble. Nevertheless, you should pick the candidate who will cause less harm during the tough times that are coming.
Well..... of course it's impossible to predict. There are too many moving parts, too many independent systems. I haven't come across a thorough analysis of 'how the voting process has changed since 2020', state-by-state. But I get the sense that quite a bit of reform has been quietly put into place on the recognition that absentee ballots and unsupervised drop boxes where not a good solution. And I think many states have unobtrusively either reinforced their laws or reconsidered them, and tightened them up. It's a gut feel, admittedly, based on snippets and sentiments. I don't trust polls and I don't believe in Red or Blue wave predictions. But personally, I think there's more to vote against in the Harris/Walz ticket, more direct reasons for voting against them - economy, censorship, misdirection of funding, foreign adventures, the direction of social change - than there is with the Trump/Vance ticket.
Those voting against Trump seem to me to be prone to suggestion, prone to derangement, prone follow party lines, and deficient in critical thinking. Trump/Vance seem to me to be oddly much more liberal and open in their engagement and outreach, while Harris/Walz seem to me to be much more demanding of allegiance, conformity. You dare a lot if you step out of line in the world of Progressive Democrats, past simple excommunication. And all of these things, are things that I cannot abide, since I was a child.
So..... your position is that half the country are teen age lesbians, or wish they were?
Yes. If I had a chance to interview ar ills I’d ask him whether FEMA’s strategy in western North Carolina was to deliberately let probable Trump voters die in what was expected to be a closely contested state.
Elon wants to be President of Mars!
I'm not sure the polls from previous years tell us the story this time.
You don't need votes to win, you need registered voters. As long as you have enough registered voters you can show they voted however you want. You just have to make sure the number of votes you publish doesn't exceed the number of possible votes. That's where the imported voters come in.
If I understand it correctly, the courts have decided that states can't stop non-citizens from voting in Federal elections, right? So that means they can also register to vote, right?
If I'm wrong, please tell me. I don't feel any confidence in the integrity of our elections. I wish I did.
he will make women register their pregnancies; and register fetus automatically in selective service
abortion = fraund on USA for cannon fodder! = Hitler
QED
The illegals, in their millions, were transported to various states on busses and planes by the Biden-Harris Administration. They were set up in strategic locations with places to stay and phones and money, etc. And I suspect they were registered to vote on the spot. I suspect they were brought in to fortify the election.
Am I paranoid? Maybe.
which vote leads to less chaos >
why Trump = more chaos locally in WI/Madison?
With voting rules extralegally loosed because of the WuHan Flu "crisis" a 25% margin of fraud is not unreasonable. I would not be surprised if post election there were credible reports of authorized Republican poll watchers being run out of vote counting rooms in handcuffs or at gunpoint.
I actually think it starts with bad polling. Now there’s a whole industry trying to influence the aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RCP with terrible, biased polls.
What I wish FiveThirtyEight and RCP would do is have a subset of their aggregators, which is just five or six really credible polls.
The Wall Street Journal has a multimodal methodology. If you’re going to do one online poll, I would do Pew Research because they have their own panel. And then you can take, if you want, NBC, CBS and maybe Washington Post? I hate CNN’s methodology — so, I wouldn’t include it.
Pick five really good polls, say you’re only going to put it in the aggregator if they use likely voters and use the voter file and use multimodal methodology so you have a real take of what’s going on.
One of the funniest things I think of is that Fox News uses someone who clearly doesn’t know how to survey and it always makes the Democrat look better. I think that’s hysterical.
The other thing I would say is the far left and the far right dominate the conversation in American politics. The middle of the electorate is very different from them, and they’re going to see it through a different lens. And so much of what’s being talked about in news and who you bring on TV or you’re interviewing in a newspaper — they’re not the folks who are actually making the decision at the end. They’re weighing, “Do I want Kamala Harris in charge of the economy or do I want to put up with four more years of Donald Trump?”
Narayanan
which vote leads to less chaos >
why Trump = more chaos locally in WI/Madison?
Because Madison is a center of TDS. If he wins, the citizens of Madison will show you what comes after 11 on the amplifier knob.
My comment was about cruel neutrality existing in this blog. Suicide pacts don’t apply here, afaik.
I did not miss that. We’ve seen how bad it is for us. We didn’t know it would be like that when Biden. Why would we knowingly vote for it with Harris?
"But that's just me, an undecided Wisconsin voter."
IIRC our hostess said the Charlottesville lie was so out of bounds that Biden was, in her mind, disqualified.
Kamala has repeated the same, oft disproved, lie.
So, has repetition taken the sting out of the lie? Have values changed (unlike Kamala's claim). Are the options Trump, third party or no one?
Trump has changed political polling in multiple ways and I will discuss two of them.
First, he upsets the normal modelling done given a set of respondents with state political/registered party affiliations. This is especially noticeable in states where the partisan lean is under 8%- states like WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, and NC. To put it a bit more clearly- Trump is both more likely win a blue leaning state like PA and lose a red-leaning state like GA. His voters are significantly different from the ones Mitt Romney got in 2012.
Second, because the media is so anti-Trump the pollsters are driven to give the media what they want to hear- that Trump is so unpopular he has no chance to win.
If you want to know who the good pollsters are I would start and end with the state level polls that got the states completely correct in 2016 and 2020.
Between tv and social media in my corner of a critical swing state, it looks more like Trump is being outspent about 12 to 1. More like 20 to one if you include PAC ads. And that’s probably being generous to Trump. If you just woke up from a coma you would have little idea who Harris was running against based on campaign activity.
Post a Comment