Althouse: Nate Silver's ladder.

July 6, 2024

Nate Silver's ladder.

You could debate the exact order, but right now we're about half way up this ladder. pic.twitter.com/k4wo9rDIB7
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 6, 2024

87 comments:

doctrev said...: The only one of those lethal to Biden is the 25th Amendment. And that will never happen. If Harris agrees to it, it's because she's trying to bait out traitors in the Cabinet.

Resigning is one thing, but if Garland, Yellen, Mayorkas, or Blinken are really stupid enough to think they can "coup" Biden, he will replace them all without a second thought.; 7/6/24, 7:47 AM
Big Mike said...: I think he means down the list,” not “up this ladder.” Or does being a hardcore Democrat in the era of Joe Biden mean you cannot tell up from down?; 7/6/24, 7:48 AM
Eric the Fruit Bat said...: Staging an Intervention used to be a standard TV trope.

Maybe it still is.

It should be on that list, regardless.; 7/6/24, 7:53 AM
D.D. Driver said...: Where is: "set up to fail miserably on national TV to force the issue"?

Or do we think the insiders were"surprised."; 7/6/24, 7:54 AM
wild chicken said...: Which way are we going, up or down?; 7/6/24, 7:57 AM
Rusty said...: So. They're trying to stage a coup?; 7/6/24, 7:58 AM
Lyle Smith said...: He left off CIA assassination, but then again they have been on the lies every day of Biden’s presidency.; 7/6/24, 8:01 AM
Esteban said...: An old, senile white man and his family are standing in the way of the first female, biracial president in American history. That is Joe Biden’s legacy.

If any of these “public” servants cared about the public interest, then the 25th amendment would be invoked as it should be. Not because Harris is likely to be a good President, because she is the duly elected VP and the President isn’t able to carry his duties.; 7/6/24, 8:10 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: doctrev said...
Resigning is one thing, but if Garland, Yellen, Mayorkas, or Blinken are really stupid enough to think they can "coup" Biden, he will replace them all without a second thought.

7/6/24, 7:47 AM

It wouldn't be their first coup.; 7/6/24, 8:17 AM
narciso said...: Hes not in charge what difference does it make; 7/6/24, 8:21 AM
AMDG said...: They are going through the seven stages of grief where Harris’ nomination replaces death.; 7/6/24, 8:22 AM
Bob Boyd said...: he will replace them all without a second thought

That depends. Is Biden really in charge or isn't he? Do those folks really work for Joe or do they answer to somebody else? Is this "ladder" about increasing the pressure on President Biden to agree to step down or is it about building the required narrative and building public and private support for what they have already decided to do? I think it's the latter.

I suspect the criminal Biden is completely compromised and controllable. That's why they picked him in the first place. Same reason Trump is absolutely not an option for them. If they want Biden to go, he will have to go...under my theory.
Replacing cabinet members is a process. It would require cooperation from a lot of people, cooperation that wouldn't be forthcoming. And who would want the job under these circumstances?
Firing them could be portrayed to the public as Biden lashing out unfairly at loyal people who have told him a difficult truth. It would only damn him further in the public eye. How many Dems are going to feel loyalty to Joe? How many would fight against their own party for him to remain President at this point? How many would fight for him to remain on principle?; 7/6/24, 8:25 AM
john mosby said...: Bang bang Nathan Silver’s ladder came down upon his head,

Bang bang Nathan Silver’s ladder because he looked dead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F__uGshlbOo

JSM; 7/6/24, 8:27 AM
Eva Marie said...: doctrev said...
‘Resigning is one thing, but if Garland, Yellen, Mayorkas, or Blinken are really stupid enough to think they can "coup" Biden, he will replace them all without a second thought.”

Maybe even without a first thought.; 7/6/24, 8:28 AM
narciso said...: Who picked them obviously not biden; 7/6/24, 8:28 AM
D.D. Driver said...: That depends. Is Biden really in charge or isn't he? Do those folks really work for Joe or do they answer to somebody else?

Do you think an Apple user takes his laptop to a random back alley computer repair shop and "forgets" he did it or do you think someone else who has access to the laptop planted it? Who would have had access? Who would have have motive? What was the motive?

The other shoe to still drop is the Hunter sentencing.; 7/6/24, 8:31 AM
D.D. Driver said...: Why are *were* the intelligence agencies so quick to tell us the Hunter Biden laptop was "Russian disinformation"? I think Trump calling Biden a "Manchurian candidate" is a case of a broken clock being right.; 7/6/24, 8:34 AM
narciso said...: My god do you ever stop removing all doubt

This sternwood clan is manifestly irresponsible no one here is the bacall character; 7/6/24, 8:38 AM
Achilles said...: Yeah we are at 7 now.

Nate Silver should put himself on that list. He is a paid DNC hack.

ABC and the rest of the hacks there were told to turn on Biden.; 7/6/24, 8:43 AM
Tom T. said...: Biden insisting that he's not stepping down is meant to raise the cost of complaining about him. "He's not leaving, so shut up. All you're doing is helping the Republicans."

The 25th amendment is basically an impeachment process by one's own party. It's like any coup, there's so much coordination required that it's always unlikely. You need to be sure everyone's on your side from the outset, because if they're not, just floating the idea will be seen as treason.

If there was a viable VP to step in, the 25th might have a chance. But Harris would lose to Trump just as badly, so why should Blinken and the others stick their necks out for her?; 7/6/24, 8:44 AM
The Drill SGT said...: Big Mike said...
I think he means down the list,” not “up this ladder.” Or does being a hardcore Democrat in the era of Joe Biden mean you cannot tell up from down?

I think Nate is likely a card carrying Dem, but it seems his professionalism makes him go where his polling data and analysis takes him. Sorta like Journalists used to.; 7/6/24, 8:45 AM
Achilles said...: Lyle Smith said...

He left off CIA assassination, but then again they have been on the lies every day of Biden’s presidency.

I am expecting an overdose of blood thinners leading to stroke myself.; 7/6/24, 8:45 AM
JK Brown said...: Biden could invoke the 25th amendment but not Kamala and the Cabinet....as long as Joe is conscious and has a staff/family to draft the "I'm okay letter".

No one reads the text of the laws and amendments.

If they try to remove Biden, he simply sends a counter letter to Congress. If they try to rebut the counter letter, then the whole Congress has 21 days to vote and need 2/3rds majority in both houses to remove the President.

Anyone think that you can get 2/3rds majority in both Houses? And what happens to Kamala and the aspiring Secretaries when they fail?; 7/6/24, 8:48 AM
Todd said...: I hope Joe Biden continues to fight for his right to stand as the Democrat nominee for President! He won the primaries as the people/party selected him, he is the existing POTUS, he meets all of the Constitutional requirements! Don't let a bunch of back-room "king makers" push you around! Run Joe run!

The Democrats and all those that push Joe onto the American public DESERVE this current situation and I hope they continue to get it good and hard!; 7/6/24, 8:49 AM
john mosby said...: If Biden could actually succeed in firing disloyal Cabinet officials (and that’s a huge if), then the firing could serve as the grounds for a bipartisan impeachment and removal.

After all, the SCOTUS just got done telling us you can’t criminally prosecute him for firing appointees.

So the only place to punish him for firing them for the ‘wrong’ reason is Congress….

JSM; 7/6/24, 8:49 AM
Ann Althouse said...: Everybody's looking for the ladder
Everybody wants salvation of the soul
The steps you take are no easy road
But the reward is great
For those who want to go; 7/6/24, 8:51 AM
Fred Drinkwater said...: But narciso the question is who is bogart?; 7/6/24, 8:56 AM
john mosby said...: Oh love is snakes and ladders
Snakes and ladders
Get to the top and slide back down
Get to the bottom climb back up

JSM; 7/6/24, 8:59 AM
doctrev said...: Blogger Bob Boyd said...

That depends. Is Biden really in charge or isn't he? Do those folks really work for Joe or do they answer to somebody else?

7/6/24, 8:25 AM

Everything you said has some merit. Clearly the Democrats are riven by factionalism. But at least one of these factions is pro-Biden, partly out of opprtunism and partly because they are finished if a different leader takes over.

Obama likely has considerable control over Slow Joe, and he's not likely to give that up. Claiming that he is secretly looking for a replacement is unwise: Obama just made that job a dozen times harder for himself if true. And the 25th Amendment NEEDS the VP: Harris knows she has job security with Biden and none with anyone else. His Cabinet members are just stupid enough to be blind to this because of their ambition. I don't doubt there are throne sniffers who would happily replace them under any circumstances.

An impeachment could work, but for the Republicans to make their candidate's job harder would be... incredibly on brand. Nonetheless, there are no shortage of obstacles and difficulties to the idea. The Democrats are more likely to take truly desperate measures.; 7/6/24, 9:01 AM
D.D. Driver said...: And the 25th Amendment NEEDS the VP: Harris knows she has job security with Biden and none with anyone else

🤔 Because "Joe living forever" is on the table?; 7/6/24, 9:04 AM
doctrev said...: D.D. Driver said...
🤔 Because "Joe living forever" is on the table?

7/6/24, 9:04 AM

I certainly thought the audience was smart enough to know what Joe dying would do for Kamala's career, but evidently not. It would be impossible to block Kamala from the Presidency in such a case, short of some genuine insanity which has a non-zero chance of leading to nuclear war. The Russians and Chinese would not accept being blamed for such a thing, even as an unconvincing cover.; 7/6/24, 9:10 AM
Leland said...: Don't see any fine print about Kamala stepping down.; 7/6/24, 9:14 AM
RMc said...: Remember when the media was yelling about replacing Trump by using the 25th? Well, I'll say the same thing now as I said then: "The American people elected this guy, and if you remove him this way, you're basically crapping all over a presidential election. Is that worth it, fellas?"

Also: real life is not a 1970s political conspiracy movie.; 7/6/24, 9:29 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Down the ladder better describes the visual given the way we write such lists.; 7/6/24, 9:30 AM
Bob Boyd said...: Biden: Merrick, you're fired.

Garland hands Biden a copy of a prepared statement which reads: For some time the Department of Justice and the FBI have been conducting an investigation into the activities of now President Biden and members of his family that took place during his time as Vice-President and as a US Senator. I regret to inform you the investigation has unearthed voluminous evidence of serious crimes including crimes committed by the President himself. The Justice Department will have no choice but to act on this evidence in accordance with the law.

Biden: I'm just fucking with you, Merrick. Geez...you're so serious! You gotta lighten up. Sit down, buddy. I've got something I want to talk to you about. Word round the campfire is, Trump put a slug in a candy machine at the Woolworth's when he was a kid. Can you have somebody look into that?

Garland: No problem, Chief. We'll get right on it.; 7/6/24, 9:37 AM
Yancey Ward said...: JK Brown has it right on the 25th- Biden can't be removed from the Presidency without 2/3s vote in both Houses of Congress if Biden refuses to go without contesting it. If I were the leadership of the Republican Party, I would probably fight against removal for the simple reason that Biden's condition has been obvious to any rational human since Biden took office, so Biden's team can run the country for another 6 months just like they have the last 3.5 years.; 7/6/24, 9:37 AM
Bob Boyd said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 7/6/24, 9:37 AM
doctrev said...: RMc said...
Remember when the media was yelling about replacing Trump by using the 25th? Well, I'll say the same thing now as I said then: "The American people elected this guy, and if you remove him this way, you're basically crapping all over a presidential election. Is that worth it, fellas?"

Also: real life is not a 1970s political conspiracy movie.

7/6/24, 9:29 AM

It is just as I said. The Aaron Sorkin types are trying to sell the Drama of an open convention, but there's no percentage in it for the Biden clan itself.

Really, I am surprised the NYT and Economist have gone this far onto the ledge to force a withdrawal, but that's good news no matter how you slice it. Extended open warfare will help the Trump campaign immeasurably.; 7/6/24, 9:38 AM
D.D. Driver said...: I certainly thought the audience was smart enough to know what Joe dying would do for Kamala's career, but evidently not

It will do absolutely NOTHING for her career because he is finished. He isn't getting re-elected and he is about to die. Being the new Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Dems is what she faces.; 7/6/24, 9:41 AM
D.D. Driver said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 7/6/24, 9:43 AM
D.D. Driver said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 7/6/24, 9:44 AM
Bob Boyd said...: real life is not a 1970s political conspiracy movie.

That's what they want you to think.; 7/6/24, 9:45 AM
doctrev said...: Bob Boyd said...
Biden: Merrick, you're fired.

Garland hands Biden a copy of a prepared statement which reads:

7/6/24, 9:37 AM

A nice Aaron Sorkin moment, but no. If it was this simple, Bill Barr would have done it to President Trump under much more favorable circumstances. If Garland was this stupid, Jill would arrange for him to fall down the stairs while he was in handcuffs.

That said, the sheer amount both sides have to lose is why Garland is not going to try blackmailing his boss and risk getting thrown in a January 6th isolation cell. In turn, Biden has offered Merrick Freisler considerable protection for his People's Courts.; 7/6/24, 9:45 AM
cfs said...: In other news, https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67490070/united-states-v-trump/?page=4

Judge Cannon just granted Trump’s motion to pause some deadlines in FLA doc case to consider SCOTUS’ immunity opinion and potential impact on the case. Trump’s lawyers filed the motion only yesterday

From the docket:

“PAPERLESS ORDER temporarily granting in part and reserving ruling in part on Defendant Trump’s Motion for Supplemental Briefing on Presidential Immunity and a Partial Stay 664 .

In order to allow for full briefing on the Motion, and consistent with the Special Counsel’s request for the standard response period, the Court stays the following impending deadlines: Defendants’ Rule 16 expert disclosures, currently due July 8, 2024; Defendants’ reciprocal discovery, currently due July 10, 2024; and Special Counsel’s CIPA §§ 5-6 submission, currently due July 10, 2024, although the Special Counsel may proceed with filing should it so elect. On or before July 18, 2024, the Special Counsel shall respond to Defendant Trump’s Motion to Stay and Request for Supplemental Briefing on Presidential Immunity.

Any reply is due July 21, 2024. The Court reserves ruling on the request for additional briefing pending receipt of the Special Counsel’s response and Defendants’ reply. No other deadlines are impacted by this Order. Signed by Judge Aileen M. Cannon on 7/6/2024. (jf01) (Entered: 07/06/2024)”; 7/6/24, 9:46 AM
doctrev said...: D.D. Driver said...
Being the new Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Dems is what she faces.

7/6/24, 9:41 AM

Even your metaphor is absolutely fucked. RBG was incredibly well-respected among the Rats before she died at the most inconvenient time. Kamala Harris, for all her flaws, is sufficiently healthy for that to not be a problem. If Biden dies after the convention, she is the only nominee left on the ticket.

If he dies before the convention, you don't have to be Alex Jones to say "gosh, isn't this a coincidence?" Aside from the fact that they would still have to push Kamala out while being under intense scrutiny. The odds are good that Jill would be pushing a Bible on Kamala before Joe's body attained room temperature.; 7/6/24, 9:52 AM
Political Junkie said...: I have to admit I have come to like Nate. I know he is on the other team (in several ways), but he has an honesty/awareness/realism that I appreciate.

Cheers.; 7/6/24, 9:54 AM
doctrev said...: D.D. Driver said...
Being the new Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Dems is what she faces.

7/6/24, 9:41 AM

Even your metaphor is absolutely broken. RBG was incredibly well-respected among the Rats before she died at the most inconvenient time. Kamala Harris, for all her flaws, is sufficiently healthy for that to not be a problem. If Biden dies after the convention, she is the only nominee left on the ticket.

If he dies before the convention, you don't have to be Alex Jones to say "gosh, isn't this a coincidence?" Aside from the fact that they would still have to push Kamala out while being under intense scrutiny. The odds are good that Jill would be pushing a Bible on Kamala before Joe's body attained room temperature.; 7/6/24, 9:54 AM
Blackbeard said...: Joe is safe because Kamala would lose badly anyway.; 7/6/24, 9:55 AM
Todd said...: Judge Cannon just granted Trump’s motion to pause some deadlines in FLA doc case to consider SCOTUS’ immunity opinion and potential impact on the case. Trump’s lawyers filed the motion only yesterday

I still DON'T understand why this is still a case at all. The President is the final authority of what is and is not a "secret". He is allowed to have anything and it is legal because he has it. It is his because he has it. It is NOT like he stuffed some papers down his pants and tried to walk them out. It is not like he took a bunch of documents home while a Senator or VP and was not allowed to. He is entitled to them because he has them, marking be damned. The fact that this case was not thrown out the moment it was brought up is proof one that the deep-state exists, that a two tiered justice system exists, and that the DOJ as/was running a coup against Trump and the Trump administration. All of them involved should all be jailed or shot or both.; 7/6/24, 10:06 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "I have to admit I have come to like Nate. I know he is on the other team (in several ways), but he has an honesty/awareness/realism that I appreciate."

Me, too. I think his failures after 2012 gave him some humility that has paid off since. Also, selling 538 gave him less reason to pull punches since he had enough "Fuck You" money to care what his compatriots on the left thought- they despised him for giving Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016.; 7/6/24, 10:06 AM
Sebastian said...: "Nate Silver's ladder"

Of course, many Dems now hate Nate. How long before the Dem PTB take away the ladder, forbid any mention of it, and demand that everyone fall in line?

We'll see what happens.; 7/6/24, 10:07 AM
Greg Hlatky said...: "Normie senators and representatives"

Name one; 7/6/24, 10:18 AM
Maynard said...: Joe is safe because Kamala would lose badly anyway.

Nope.

Kamala was once the favored POTUS candidate of the NYT. She will be rehabilitated beyond our belief.

Kamala Harris will be the 47th President of the U.S.; 7/6/24, 11:02 AM
JaimeRoberto said...: Even if Biden is removed by the 25th Amendment, aren't the delegates still his?; 7/6/24, 11:06 AM
tcrosse said...: real life is not a 1970s political conspiracy movie.

Truth is stranger than fiction because fiction has to make sense.; 7/6/24, 11:07 AM
Michael Fitzgerald said...: With Trump, they started at the other end.; 7/6/24, 11:09 AM
Rory said...: "Do you think an Apple user takes his laptop to a random back alley computer repair shop and "forgets" he did it or do you think someone else who has access to the laptop planted it? Who would have had access? Who would have have motive? What was the motive?"

Hunter likely took it to that place because he didn't want dad's computer guy, and then dad, to see his sex and drug activities on it.

A less-likely possibility is that he actually had a notion that if he abandoned it, the memory would be wiped clean and it would be sold.; 7/6/24, 12:10 PM
Christopher B said...: JaimeRoberto said...
Even if Biden is removed by the 25th Amendment, aren't the delegates still his?

Good point. I would expect yes but if the Democrats are going all the way to the 25th I would suspect the DNC would likely also unbind the convention delegates. It's similarly hard to see that he could decline the nomination but stay in office at this point. Technically possible of course, just hard to see the path.; 7/6/24, 12:15 PM
Harun said...: Hunter has lost several laptops. He's a drug addict. Its really not hard to forget about one when you go buy or borrow another when you're dad is VP.

Second theory: Hunter has consistently railed against being the "bagman" and has caused a serious of scandals for his father - sleeping with Beau's wife, being fired from the navy for not passing a drug test, having his brother's badge left in a car, his laptop, his kid...

There is a theory that this is Hunter subconsciously trying to get his father's attention and "stop" his dad from being in politics and forcing him to do illegal bribes stuff as the bagman.

Obviously foreign agents have literally discussed how to use Hunter, and we have the emails from Chinese agents to him, etc.

Its really not difficult to understand - our media has decided they don't want to push this story, that's all.; 7/6/24, 12:19 PM
imTay said...: So everything Biden said about Harris at the beginning of his term was either a lie or a catastrophic misjudgment. Sadly, both are in character for him.; 7/6/24, 12:30 PM
Kevin said...: How do you remove “the most successful President ever” from office?; 7/6/24, 12:33 PM
Narayanan said...: replace...
=================
with whom?

suh silly talk!

incredible contadictory claims :; 7/6/24, 12:36 PM
imTay said...: "Its really not hard to forget about one when you go buy or borrow another when you're dad is VP."

The most famous laptop had a "Beau Biden Foundation" decal on it.; 7/6/24, 1:03 PM
FWBuff said...: 15. The Lord Almighty Himself appears to Biden and tells him to step aside.; 7/6/24, 1:04 PM
narciso said...: Robert hur; 7/6/24, 1:26 PM
Old and slow said...: "Do you think an Apple user takes his laptop to a random back alley computer repair shop and "forgets" he did it"

This is about the easiest thing to believe that I can imagine. "An Apple user"? Are they some special, extra thoughtful sort of person. He's a crackhead. Have you ever known one? Forgetting important things is a daily experience for drug addicts. Also, people are constantly referring to Hunter as a crackhead, and he obviously is, but most of the photos show him smoking a meth pipe, so he's a speed freak as well.; 7/6/24, 1:50 PM
Aggie said...: My guess is that Joe will serve out his term without the embarrassment of the 25th Amendment raising its head. The specter will certainly be used to influence his decision to leave the race, though. Demented or not, he knows well how the game is played. Jill might be a different story, but I don't think she'll go 'full Imelda'. They'll get her into a quiet place and explain the alternatives to her, if she forgets her place. She'll experience the full 'fresh meat' ruthlessness of l'éminence grise.

She can have 5 more months of the royal experience, and then a graceful exit from the world stage, for a quiet retirement and perhaps a juicy sinecure at the Biden Library in its chosen location. If she doesn't feel cooperative, perhaps it could be sited in downtown Baltimore, among the ghost buildings. Perhaps some of Joe's business arrangements with hostile foreign leaders could be brought to light. Or some of his real estate deals. Perhaps Hunter's drug and tax and gun problems could be re-examined, or you might look at these photos - those girls seem awfully young to be naked and doing drugs, don't they? Perhaps.....; 7/6/24, 1:51 PM
DanTheMan said...: In the entire world, there are two people that can convince Joe to step down.
Joe, and Jill.
Joe has dementia, so he thinks he's just fine even though he obviously is not.

So, the question for the D's is: What's Jill's price?

I suspect it's some combination of a VERY large untraceable "donation", around $100M+ and some magnificent, spectacular, wildly over the top honor for Joe.

Short of a medical incapacitation, that's the only way to get him to step aside.
The other options require the Dems to get themselves out a jam I guess, and use a little too much force.; 7/6/24, 2:36 PM
Greg the Class Traitor said...: 1: 25th Amendment doesn't remove him from the ballot. The DNC would have to do that
2: "Dr" Jill LVOES being First Lady. I've driven in a Presidential motorcade, once. It was really cool, driving down a freeway that had been emptied of everyone but us. She rides in them all the time, and flies on Air Force One.

WTF can rich Dems offer her that matches that?

3: Their only realistic alternative is Kamala Harris. You know, the woman who got her start in politics by banging a married man?

Have fun with your "Trump banged a porn star" story line, with her as his competitor.

She's a babbling moron, chosen as VP because she could never be a threat to Joe. So they can pay off Jill, or threaten Jill, to the point where she'll let go, but they still can't win; 7/6/24, 2:45 PM
Greg the Class Traitor said...: Esteban said...
An old, senile white man and his family are standing in the way of the first female, biracial president in American history. That is Joe Biden’s legacy.

Joe's a Democrat racist. You've just now figured that out? your'e not very bright, are you?

If any of these “public” servants cared about the public interest, then the 25th amendment would be invoked as it should be. Not because Harris is likely to be a good President, because she is the duly elected VP and the President isn’t able to carry his duties.

Yes, they should pull the 25th Amendment trigger.

But if they did that, then they would have to explain to all of us why they've been lying for so long.

Which is probably part of what's keeping them from pushing Joe and Jill out.

Note, the press is going in the opposite direction: they've been lying to us and partnering in the coverup for years, and now they're trying to blame it all on the White House / Biden team.; 7/6/24, 2:50 PM
Greg the Class Traitor said...: I do love the Hoel the Dems have dug for themselves, all because they weren't willing to allow a Primary

1: Trump's a liar!
You folks have spent the last year+ lying to us about whether the President of the US was mentally competent to handle his duties

2: Trump banged a porn star!
Kamala banged a married man to get his support for her political career

3: Trump is a threat to democracy!
you refused to let Democrat Primary voters have a choice; 7/6/24, 2:52 PM
Steven Wilson said...: "My god do you ever stop removing all doubt

This sternwood clan is manifestly irresponsible no one here is the bacall character"

Nice "The Big Sleep" reference at 8:38 narciso. I'm not sure there's a General Sternwood here either. He was confined to a wheelchair but he wasn't demented.; 7/6/24, 3:12 PM
robother said...: Jill is the sticking point here. Neither Lady Bird nor Pat Nixon had this kind of hold over their man. Edith Wilson did (which is why Wilson served out his term.) Thus, it's no coincidence that mental deficiency is the common ground between Biden and Wilson, greatly enhancing the power of the wife. That is the reason I'm thinking that this will go all the way to 14 on Silver's ladder. Jill may push it to a vote under the 25th Amendment, letting Joe resign only when it's clear the bi-partisan vote isn't going their way.; 7/6/24, 3:17 PM
rehajm said...: It never gets to number 7 since there’s no such thing as normie Senators or Representatives…; 7/6/24, 3:29 PM
Mikey NTH said...: And if Biden doesn't resign? The 25th Amendment is a tough bar to cross and there's no indication yet that the Republicans will help the Democrats out of this jam.; 7/6/24, 3:38 PM
narciso said...: Well the cross family of chinatown also comes to mind; 7/6/24, 3:43 PM
Mikey NTH said...: JK Brown stated better what I was getting at. It is easier to impeach than using the 25th Amendment and that's not taking into account the president's escape clause in the 25th Amendment.; 7/6/24, 3:51 PM
Mikey NTH said...: Replying to Mosby: Removing a cabinet member as a ground to impeach was what was used against Andrew Johnson. That route has already been closed, the Supreme Court has reiterated that official acts are not grounds to charge a president, and removing a cabinet member is definitely an official act. Who is going to get the House to open that circus at this late date? On a charge that has been a dead letter for about 150 years?; 7/6/24, 4:42 PM
Yancey Ward said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 7/6/24, 5:18 PM
Rabel said...: "It is easier to impeach than using the 25th Amendment and that's not taking into account the president's escape clause in the 25th Amendment."

1. The Constitution does not list incapacity as a justification for impeachment.

2. Invocation of the 25th by the Cabinet immediately removes the President from power, including the period after he disputes the challenge if the Cabinet holds its ground. Impeachment requires a House vote and then a Senate trial during which the President retains his authority and can present a defense.

I wouldn't say that impeachment is easier. They are two different processes meant to tackle two different problems. The 25th takes the car keys and the red button away now while waiting on Congress to act. Impeachment takes time and, unless it's President Trump, requires a Constitutionally valid justification.; 7/6/24, 5:20 PM
Ralph L said...: Edith Wilson did (which is why Wilson served out his term.)

She at least had the (lame) excuse that people often recover from strokes, and the war was over. As we see over and over with presidents, once they start concealing illness, it's difficult to fess up.

I still haven't seen any discussion of if the DNC can detach delegate pledges before the first ballot. There must be a mechanism if the presumptive nominee has an illness and can't do it himself. How far can they stretch it? Can all delegates vote present--or vote to change the rules?; 7/6/24, 6:23 PM
Jamie said...: Does anyone remember Heinlein's novella Double Star? I think maybe it was one of his four Hugos.

For the uninitiated, SPOILER ALERT, the plot is that a very popular (and populist, as it happens) politician has been kidnapped by the opposition, days before he has to make an absolutely vital diplomatic appearance (to the Martians, because it's a sci-fi story). His staff, knowing the Martians won't care WHY he doesn't show up, only THAT he doesn't show up, scramble to find an impersonator who can pull off this highly scripted appearance.

They find a down and out, but talented, actor who already looks like their guy. They prep him intensively. He does the appearance - and then the politician is released in a skid row, totally out of it on the drugs the kidnappers pumped him full of. And he immediately has a stroke.

What now?! If word gets out that that's how and where he was found, and that this is his current condition, the question will be - most importantly - who was at the diplomatic event? The entire diplomatic mission will be scuttled.

Anyway. The politician has another stroke and dies. The staff persuades the actor to take on the role of this politician permanently - but they do offer him the out of taking on the role for just long enough to stage HIS stroke and demise after a shirt interval. But duty calls, and he becomes the, and a, politician for the rest of his life.

So... has this already happened, or is it still to come?; 7/6/24, 6:56 PM
narciso said...: Also the movie dave; 7/6/24, 7:09 PM
PackerBronco said...: The 25th is a none starter. Does anyone seriously think that people in this Administration want to be put under oath before Congress to explain what they knew and when about Biden's condition? And who has been actually running the country all this time?

Biden leaves voluntarily or not at all. And he knows that. And so does "Dr" Jill.; 7/6/24, 7:28 PM
Greg the Class Traitor said...: I do love the Hoel the Dems have dug for themselves, all because they weren't willing to allow a Primary

1: Trump's a liar!
You folks have spent the last year+ lying to us about whether the President of the US was mentally competent to handle his duties

2: Trump banged a porn star!
Kamala banged a married man to get his support for her political career

3: Trump is a threat to democracy!
you refused to let Democrat Primary voters have a choice; 7/6/24, 8:02 PM
Yancey Ward said...: MikeNTH,

Congress can impeach and remove for any reason they want to and SCOTUS has no power in the matter and this particular court would not do anything different.; 7/6/24, 10:55 PM
Aggie said...: I would just say, yes Kamala is not the brightest bulb. She has dutifully played the role that was given her, and l'éminence grise has ensured her performance in office continues to make Joe impeachment-proof - her raison d'être.

But as someone of limited wattage, I would say she has gone far, not so? And the situation has changed. Where will her ambitions take her, with the right coaching and the right intensive, immersive training? Look what some good coaching and a wardrobe budget did for a bartender from NYC, the boob with the boobs. How many watts is she?

Kamala's political identity is about to undergo an amazing rehabilitation. She's about to become the wise philosopher queen. She'll be up for a Nobel Prize before it's all over. The NYT will start swooning, and Vanity Fair will be prepping a new cover. Watch it happen. I see Mark Warner's name being bandied a lot. Mr. VP? A little assurance for l'éminence grise that an adult is in the pool?; 7/6/24, 11:06 PM