From "David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear" by Ezra Klein (NYT).
October 8, 2021
"Democrats are winning more college-educated white voters and fewer non-college white voters, as pollster shorthand puts it, and Donald Trump supercharged this trend...."
"[T]he sorting that educational polarization is picking up... puts Democrats at a particular disadvantage in the Senate, as college-educated voters cluster in and around cities while non-college voters are heavily rural.... This is why Shor believes Trump was good for the Republican Party, despite its losing the popular vote in 2016, the House in 2018 and the Senate and the presidency in 2020. ... Shor has built an increasingly influential theory of what the Democrats must do to avoid congressional calamity.... To avoid it... they need to internalize that they are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over.... Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff.... [O]ne difference between 2016 and 2012 is that Romney was complicit in making economics the center of the campaign. Like Obama, he preferred to argue over tax policy and spending cuts and was plainly uncomfortable talking about immigration or race. He ran, self-consciously, as a former management consultant who would govern on behalf of America’s makers rather than its takers. Trump descended a golden escalator to call Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists. What was Clinton supposed to do?"
From "David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear" by Ezra Klein (NYT).
From "David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear" by Ezra Klein (NYT).
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There's a big difference between the woke recent alumni and the old ones. Those rural hicks put a man on the moon.
Wow, “they are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over.” That’s a succinct and highly accurate truth bomb.
I would add this corollary: they DO not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over.
To avoid it... [Democrats] need to internalize that they are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over"
Gonna be pretty hard for Ds to do this when they think we're all deplorables.
"The people are revolting"
Ds: "You said it. They certainly are"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Unx3dpZja00
I don’t think the Dems can follow this advice. Their contempt for the average American is palpable and can’t be hidden. The stain has set like blood in fabric. Voters may not have doctorates in CRT; they may not have a BA in anything at all; they may struggle to read the daily paper; but that doesn’t make them stupid. They can smell hypocrisy and condescension a mile off.
They didn't win the election in 2020. They stole it.
The only thing clustering in urban centers are mail in ballots.
People are moving out of urban centers in droves. Census data on this is irrefutable.
And yet they had more votes from those urban centers in 2020 than voters.
Magic.
So the college educated (indoctrinated) white voters are Marxists, and the non college whites are regular people who want to be left alone. AND??? I stand with Americans who love their country...not the ones trying to make it into a Socialist Utopia....the so called educated elites.
"Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff...."
Democrats should lie to non-college rural voters about their intentions, then?
And I love that Regressives still use the lie that Trump- called Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists. The left is wonderful at taking things out of context, and spewing the lies all over the place. Wait until people actually wake up to what the left wants to do to them. The Shit will hit the fan. I can't wait. If you're not black..you didn't vote for Joe.
He's right about Romney but he still doesn't understand Trump voters. The "redneck voter" theory is not going to help Democrats when 69% of Hispanics disapprove of Biden's border policies.
"Democrats are winning more college-educated white voters and fewer non-college white voters, as pollster shorthand puts it, and Donald Trump supercharged this trend...."
The GOP should be able to win back some of the Althouses of America. Step one: yuuuge loser Trump should not run, or failing that, GOPers should coalesce behind an opponent. Not clear that's possible.
We know what Biden did after his stolen election, he opened up our Mexican border to let in even more of those rapists and murderers.
Shor is telling Democrats what they don't need to say.
Oh yeah, "let's Go Brandon" Biden.
I also want to point out the dumbest people in the country are college educated.
Colleges are not making most people that go to them smarter.
And today the Daily Mail is headlining a Trump comment that the Haitians heading towards our southern border probably all have AIDS.
It is easy to understand why college educated white voters do not want to be associated with that point of view or the man who espouses it. It's a cheap shot, there's no way he can know that to be true so he's just being cruel and crude to get attention and it doesn't really matter does it? Because presumably Trump wouldn't be in favor of the Haitians being allowed in even if he didn't think they were all infected with a (once upon a time) deadly disease. So what's his point?
Owen said...
"I don’t think the Dems can follow this advice."
Not so sure about that. I don't recall Dems spending a lot of effort highlighting the contents of the $5T+ reconciliation bill.
Democrats are winning more college-educated white voters and fewer non-college white voters, as pollster shorthand puts it, and Donald Trump supercharged this trend....
They left out 'women' - Democrats are winning more college-educated white women voters.
Someone wants to not tell Democrats what they don't want to hear...
Notice that the communication is one way: the Democrats do not incorporate any feedback into their policies; they tune their message. Seems like the opposite of democracy to me.
---"Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff...."
What a winning formula. Promise them good stuff but hide your real mission. On the other hand, that did work for the Nazis. Come to think of it, it may have almost worked in 2020, if you x-out all the multiply-counted and fraudulent ballots to get a more accurate tally.
Democrats currently seem to be following the French Revolution handbook a little more closely. Jail all those who disagree. They got a good start on this with the "insurrection" propaganda and charges. Now they are moving onto parents who speak out at PTA meetings. And of course they release all those who might favor the Dem side, such as BLM, Antifa, and the freelance rioters of 2020.
Some Democrats have advocated charging "climate-change deniers" with treason or other capital offense. The "unvaccinated" are in their sights, for sure. And they could pick up a lot of other reactionary counter-revolutionaries simply by searching video for whoever has worn a MAGA hat.
What comes next? Then you kill all those you jailed, in the name of safety. SAFETY, yessirree, that will do it.
Win-win!
easy peazy, democrats. Become ever bigger phonies and frauds.
what the Democrats must do to avoid congressional calamity.... To avoid it... they need to internalize that they are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over....
Nope, All they need to do, is
a) get rid of the filibuster
b) pack the supreme court with 20 more seats
c) add Puerto Rico, and DC as new states
d) split California into two states
e) Pass HR-1, which will now be constitutional because of b)
Then they can send those voters they don't like and don't understand to the camps
Of course they're winning college-educated whites...colleges are mostly women now (feelings!), and by the time you graduate college, you've had at least 16 years of socialist, teachers' union indoctrination.
Btw, forget who it is, but he always refers to public schools as 'government schools' for this very reason...
Why does it matter, we'll just steal the house and Senate and presidency over and over add infinitum.
David Shor and Ezra Klein? The blind leading the stupid.
Its still difficult to grasp, but in McCain and Romney and Ryan, the democraticals literally had the Dem varsity running on the Dem tickets and the Dem JV team running on the Rep tickets.
Blogger I'm Not Sure said...
"Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff...."
Democrats should lie to non-college rural voters about their intentions, then?
Yes, that was what struck me as well. Don't abandon or modify the unpopular stuff, just do it quietly. The key to better politics is better mendacity, apparently.
Never mind the stolen election. How did Biden get to be the nominee in the first place? Someone answer me that.
Dems and their leftmediaswine cannot distinguish between “college educated” and “college credentialed intellectual pygmies.” This inability derives from unfounded pride. They do have the full support of the latter.
"The GOP should be able to win back some of the Althouses of America. Step one: yuuuge loser Trump should not run, or failing that, GOPers should coalesce behind an opponent. Not clear that's possible."
Trump figured out how to pick the electoral lock that the Democrats have on the White House. Since the 2004 election, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico have become reliable Democratic electoral votes- all done without Donald Trump on the ticket. Had any other Republican been nominated in 2016, that candidate would have lost all those states listed above anyway, and would have lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. What a non-Trump candidate might be able to do with a normal election process is to regain Arizona and Georgia, but I see no reason at all to believe a normal GOP candidate ever winning Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, and without at least one of those, a Republican can't win the presidency right now. And I am not even mentioning the fact that North Carolina is following the path of Virginia, but about 20 years behind chronologically. Additionally, I question whether or not a normal GOP candidate is competitive in Ohio in a presidential election.
"nd then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff...."
I would strongly prefer that they not only shut up about the unpopular stuff, but that they actually then not do the unpopular stuff if they win. To do otherwise would effectively be a fraud on the electorate.
Once they move out of the parent's basement and star paying their own way. Then it will be..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD8t1DWwnRk
Can't see a thing till you open my eyes
they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff.
Schor tells Democrats what they don't want to hear? Really? Klein thinks they don't want to hear that their programs are just fine, all they need to do is lie better? Good to see Ezra Klein is the same old shameless manipulator he has always been.
I read that as Shor telling Democrats to lie better; not everyone is as naive as the college educated.
We used to say "all politics are local". Perhaps it was more accurate to say "all politics are tribal". Democrats don't represent my tribe. Trump understood this concept perfectly.
It'd be interesting to see a breakout of the "College educated" by job/profession. We don't have that many professors, lawyers, or doctors. I have have a suspicion that a large number of college graduates are:
Secondary/Elementery School Teachers
Nurses
Education Industry Bueracrats (sic)
State and Federal Goverment workers.
All of which vote Democrat by large margins because - $$$$.
I wonder how many MBA and people with Business or Engineering degrees are voting D.
The Democrats don’t want to hear it? Well, most Americans didn’t want to see what Shitshow Joe has done and is trying to do in the first year of his Reign of Error.
Remember that the Democratic outrage about Trump's comments was fake. Once Trump was in office, Democrats denounced the Remain In Mexico initiative, arguing that potential immigrants were in danger of being raped or murdered over there.
How will Trump kick off his 2024 candidacy?
The ride down the escalator is immortal for all time.
Stand on the bow of a nuclear submarine as it sails into Chesapeake Bay?
Outstanding. So Clinton should have hugged illegal aliens closer and ran an even more screamingly libelous campaign. Ezra Klein is a dishonest moron, so he can't explain to the cabal that funds him why Trump really won: trade policy, foreign policy, domestic culture war.
Ironically, if Hillary focused on the issues and explained how she had learned how industry had been shipped to China, she might have had a shot at fighting Trump on his own ground. The problem is that Obama was generally a failure, and promising FOUR MORE YEARS wouldn't work for her. The new problem, of course, is that people are expected to believe that President Retard got 81 million votes- even 2020 Trump beat 2008 Obama's vote totals.
The Democrats don't need to worry about elections. They need to worry about being dragged into the streets and scalped.
In order to acknowledge its self-proving nature, the sentence should have been written "Democrats are winning more college-credentialed white voters and fewer non-college white voters, . . ." (Using "college-attended white voters" also would have been acceptable.)
Being allowed to have contempt for others is why they are Democrats. You can't take that away from them.
A bunch of college-"educated" people were just recently responsible for believing and propagating a stupid hoax that the border patrol was whipping people.
College-educated is not a valid term anymore.
Has Ezra Klein gotten any smarter? Remember when he praised the US veteran's hospitals as a model for the US healthcare system?
It's almost like they (the elites running the Democratic Party) are from another planet and that they are here on earth (or Red State America) trying to understand an alien species, especially when it comes to Hispanic voters. Did the Black Lives Movement alienate Hispanic voters? Yes, says Shore; No say the old experts. Neither can imagine that BLM was merely one factor. Mass illegal immigration is another, maybe even a bigger one, but one they are unable to imagine or else face. Same thing when it comes to understanding working-class African Americans. Pitiful.
@Yancey:
"What a non-Trump candidate might be able to do with a normal election process is to regain Arizona and Georgia, but I see no reason at all to believe a normal GOP candidate ever winning Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, and without at least one of those, a Republican can't win the presidency right now. And I am not even mentioning the fact that North Carolina is following the path of Virginia, but about 20 years behind chronologically. Additionally, I question whether or not a normal GOP candidate is competitive in Ohio in a presidential election."
Trump squeaked by in 2016. He lost yuuugely in 2020, against Joe of all people. Joe won because he wasn't Trump. ABT would be a factor again in 2024--a losing strategy. Sure, Dem failures would help. Even so, the GOP would be better off with a non-Trump candidate, ideally endorsed by Trump. Not a "normal" GOPer, of course, if by that you mean Dole/Bush/McCain/Romney. Someone who can fight the culture war intelligently, resist media attacks, keep the deplorables in the fold, and reach out to the Althouses a bit.
"Trump descended a golden escalator to call Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists."
Did he? Or did he say that when you let tens or even hundreds of thousands of unvetted people across the border, you are going to get a lot of criminals and rapists, and that there needs to be a process to sort them out.
When I see this kind of mindless repetition of "settled narrative," I just can't read any further, it's just too infuriating.
I really like and admire Donald Trump, but he is too old.
The NYT stubbornly refuses to learn anything at all about anyone in this countty outside their circle of friends and contacts. They are physically incapable of aski g these others what they think and why they think that - and accept that answer.
We used to say "all politics are local". Perhaps it was more accurate to say "all politics are tribal". Democrats don't represent my tribe. Trump understood this concept perfectly.
I've been saying that for a while. Trump figured out how to turn MAGA from a campaign slogan into a brand, and rally people around it. It became an identity. The reality is that people don't decide their tribe based on politics, they adjust their politics to fit their tribe. MAGA was as much about being a part of "something" at a time when all the traditional institutions are being destroyed.
---Someone who can fight the culture war intelligently, resist media attacks, keep the deplorables in the fold, and reach out to the Althouses a bit. [Sebastian]
Rand Paul stands out from the rest of the current field, IMO. He speaks up, he presents on all topics, he makes sense, and he's taken shots from the enemies and survived. Like his father, he has no problem standing alone on a position. Unlike his father, he is canny and stays closer to the main segment of his particular bell curve; he does not seem fanatical.
As for "the Althouses" -- you are dreaming and you know it! This Althouse can draw many of the dots fine, but something in her won't let her connect them. It must be against her religion. I'm sure I am with you in regretting that frustrating aspect. Be bold, Ann! You have nothing to lose but your NYT subscription.
Except, who am I kidding? Myself? Althouse despises right-wingers. She has said it over and over. Her most recent diatribe was on how violent right-wingers get in their personal lives, up to and including murder, IIRC. Unlike her Madison friends and neighbors, she also said, who must present as a truly nicey-nice set. I am sure they had nothing to do with all that nasty stuff that happened in Madison last year, and there would never be a shadow of anything outre in their private lives. Civilized, unlike the crazed right-wingers who read her blog and make such ridiculous, illogical, and uninformed comment on the Althouse posts.
Sebastian, Trump and Biden received the same number of electoral votes so either they both squeaked by or both won yuuugely. The popular vote, as we both know, will never be won by a Republican again until California floats away. It is irrelevant now.
In other words, what the Democrats need to do to win elections is lie (if only by omission) about what they will if fact do in office once they do win them. But this was basically the Biden/Harris strategy - remember when Biden was the moderate? And I think more and more people, including the college educated, are now saying to themselves (and each other): fool me once, shame on you...
David Shor was cancelled last year. He's actually the poster boy for centrist complaints about cancel culture, starting with Jonathan Chait. Can't see how it's possible that the entire left is talking about him (and his mediocre statistical analyses and bad charts) if he was cancelled. Don't we know that cancellation is the most consistent and permanent part of current American left wing culture? Once you are cancelled you are dead. It's a fact.
Michael K said...
He's right about Romney but he still doesn't understand Trump voters. The "redneck voter" theory is not going to help Democrats when 69% of Hispanics disapprove of Biden's border policies.
Hispanics are the new rednecks. And why not - they are only POC when Dems are pandering to them, otherwise they are classified as deplorable whites.
Of course, what this is Really All About is that the "College Educated" are the new ignorant
for example...
Nikole Hannah-Jones is Not Just "College Educated" she's a freaking tenured Chair professor
And yet: NY Times’ Nikole Hannah-Jones roasted for making a case for school choice without realizing it
Nikole tweeted: "Why do ‘school choice’ advocates never advocate eliminating school district boundaries/funding schools by local property tax and allowing poor, Black students to attend white, wealthy schools in neighboring municipalities? They don’t really want choice, just privatization,"
apparently, Nikole is So Ignorant, that she's Never Heard of Open Enrollment.
That's Pretty Ignorant... And, She's a "college educated" Departmental Chair at a University
Sally327 said...
And today the Daily Mail is headlining a Trump comment that the Haitians heading towards our southern border probably all have AIDS.
Except that's not what he said. Not even close.
What a delightful example of exactly the kind of dishonesty that is being discussed here!
"Never mind the stolen election. How did Biden get to be the nominee in the first place? Someone answer me that."
He got the most votes.
some naive folks think the Dems care a whit about connecting to amuricans? hah.
that's so last century. they don't care a whit about voters. they figure it's final and they have won.
This is the Global Chieftans Ruling Class now, they figure big blue government/education/information Zeitgeist is theirs & they've won already.
they certainly pickled the brains of our women.
they tickle every envy and prick in all of us, they tell us all exactly what we are going to do, what we're going to talk about and what you are able to say about it. they groom enforcers and enforcement. the women are the worst. Make trouble and they'll unfile our cards with their perfectly manicured fingers so you get stuck. Everything goes to the top and we'll let you know when you get to see the light of day, amurican.
"Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up aaout the unpopular stuff.... " This deserves a Goddam Pulitzer Prize for Fucks Sake!!!
"Never mind the stolen election. How did Biden get to be the nominee in the first place? Someone answer me that."
You remember the Democrat 2020 primaries differently than me, We don't yet know who won Iowa and when Jim Clyburn proposed the Biden more "normal" than Trump hypothesis Biden was force fitted into the Dem Nomination.
Blogger Mutaman said...
"Never mind the stolen election. How did Biden get to be the nominee in the first place? Someone answer me that."
He got the most votes.
No, Clyburn fixed it. Sort of like those Philadelphia vote counts.
The "redneck voter" theory is not going to help Democrats when 69% of Hispanics disapprove of Biden's border policies.
It seems probable that my son will soon propose marriage to a lovely Colombian girl who has been his girlfriend for several years. I'm guessing her ancestry is 60% European, 30% Native, 10% African. She looks more or less like a young Jennifer Lopez. If they give me grandchildren, they will have the coloration of my Italian barber, and carry a German surname. They will, for all practical purposes, be completely white.
She's a typical young single female liberal, but not dogmatic or nasty about it, and my smart , charismatic, ultra-right-wing boy has got her questioning all her previously held premises. Her old man is a fervent anti-Communist and delighted that she's with my son. By the time her kids have been in school for a few years, I have no doubt she'll be voting Republican.
This classic American story, writ large, will be the death of not just the Democratic Party, but much else that is dear to the hearts of the leftist elites. White/Hispanic couples are, if I am not mistaken, the single largest category of interracial marriages. They already are far less politically correct and care far less about hurting the precious feelings of blacks and sexual deviants than do ordinary white Americans. If they become truly culturally White, like Italians and Jews before them, and begin to feel the effects of the anti-white cultural and media zeitgeist that we have borne stoically for a couple of decades now, then the "woke" mentality is going to lose its grip on our society. Thoroughly and quickly. It will be like Sauron and his minions when the One Ring was cast into the fires of Mount Doom.
And I think more and more people, including the college educated, are now saying to themselves (and each other): fool me once, shame on you...
I think you're being far too optimistic. In my experience those on the Left will simply ignore anything that causes cognitive dissonance, or find some reason to dismiss it. The vast majority of those on the Left honestly believe that Hunter's laptop is fake and that Russian collusion is real, and there is nothing you can say to change their minds.
There is a divide, but it isn’t as clean as many try to make it. And now we can use face diapers to indicate which tribe we belong to. Turns out that I belong to one of the most conservative college educated professions - patent attorneys. The ones I talk to know more about COVID-19 and it’s vaccines, than many, if not most MDs. Part of that is the relatively new corporate environment that the latter have been forced into. We are used to reading scientific papers, and seeing what they don’t say. But COVID-19 is just the most recent illustration of this divide.
Why go to college and get a college degree? For me, it was just expected. My parents and grandparents all had college degrees. It’s just my family had done for more than a century now. But that wasn’t, and isn’t now, the reason for most people in this country. For many, it seems, it is because they think that they are joining an elite. And that seems to mean being willing to take orders from their betters - from those with more education, from (supposedly) better schools. The funny thing is that the groups with the highest rates of vaccine hesitancy are those POC without any college, and those with doctorate degrees. Highest vaccine rates appear to be from those with a college degree, but no graduate degree.
Part of this party divide then seems to revolve around how much you trust your betters. Here, we have a corrupt blatant incompetent doddering demented tool (supposedly) elected President. Why would anyone in their right mind have voted for him? It was obviously more than a year ago that he couldn’t do the job. Now his pretending to do it is getting ridiculous. My theory is because they were told to. Their betters lied to them. We call them “sheeple”.
My theory is that the real divide is between individualists and collectivists. Rural people have long been individualists, out of necessity. And city dwellers tend to be collectivists for similar reasons. Collectivists believe what they are told to believe, and individualists tend to be skeptical about it. And the battleground is suburbia.
I see more and more indications that the Democrats know that they are in trouble. They are in the process of losing Hispanics. As noted above, they are effectively White most of the time. To me, they are little different than previous immigrant groups were, moving to the right as they assimilated. Interestingly, Hispanic elites tend to be ethnically very White, with fairly strong European bloodlines. Assimilation is the route to success, so they assimilate, just as the Irish, the Italians, the Polish, etc did before them. And when they do, their ethic differences disappear. We have lived with Hispanics as next door neighbors, and whenever I thought them a bit different, my Roman Catholic partner just explained that they were just Catholic. There was never the Them vs Us feeling you often get with Blacks and Jews.
The thing that the Democrats didn’t get with Hispanics is that they are just as racist and ethnically aware as anyone else. For many Hispanics in this country, the Hispanics flooding over our borders are not their cousins (though some may be), but often their social inferiors from further south. Often less white. More illiterate. More violent and criminal. They don’t trust them any more than the rest of us do, and they grievances go back centuries. I think that the Biden regime’s immigration policies are driving a lot of our second and subsequent generation Hispanics into the arms of the Republicans. The Dems’ other policies are doing the same thing.
Uh, check out Kevin Samuels. It ain’t just Hispanics, it’s just that black folks nearly always have the hardest road. Life is such that you have to lift yourself up.
The liberation and Self narratives only go so far when you have so hard realities to deal with.
"Trump descended a golden escalator to call Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists. What was Clinton supposed to do?"
What a lying sack of shit.
Trump said that the criminals who violate teh US southern border are more likely to contain Mexico's bad people than their good people.
He didn't call all Mexicans "criminals and rapists". He said the ones who were criminals and rapists were more likely to be the ones violating US immigration law.
And every single one of them is a criminal, because otherwise they would have come to the US legally, not illegally
Sally327 said...
And today the Daily Mail is headlining a Trump comment that the Haitians heading towards our southern border probably all have AIDS.
So, sally, what % of all Haitians ahve AIDS? You don't know and you don't want to talk about it? And you're angry at Trump for bringing it up?
So you're a proud ignoramus who lashes out at anyone who tries to educate or inform you?
And you're proud of this?
Unfortunately, the Republican party at the national level also "are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over".
There is a small percentage of would-be Republicans...tea partiers and Trump supporters...who aren't gonna show up to vote next time. Having been used by McConnell & Co. one too many times, they will just let the Dems drive the US into a ditch.
I found my little piece of utopia in the heartland. DC and the coasts can go up in flames (courtesy of BLM) for all I care.
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