August 6, 2020

At the Boardwalk Café...

IMG_8752

... you can pace around all night.

And thanks for using the Althouse Portal when you shop at Amazon.

88 comments:

mandrewa said...

(This is a repeat.)

I think the Covid-19 epidemic is almost over. We could wrap this up in three months if we tried. The first obstacle will be the federal bureaucracy in Washington.

Here are two videos that give the context:

Cheap, At Home, Paper Antigen COVID-19 Tests: How to Fix Coronavirus Testing with Dr. Michael Mina

That was published today.

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 98: At Home COVID-19 Testing - A Possible Breakthrough

And that one was published on July 20th.

I'm halfway through the one that came out today (they are both from MedCram) and it seems obvious to me what we need to do. And I'm extrapolating a bit. They didn't actually say
all this but I would be surprised if others aren't thinking this.

So here's the deal. We now have several sensitive and inexpensive tests (they should cost about $2 each) that will tell you in 15 minutes whether you are shedding the Covid-19 virus.

It works something like this. You spit into a little cup. You put a little piece of paper in it. Wait 15 minutes. If it shows a certain line or a color, you are shedding significant amounts of the virus.

So how do we use this to wipe out the virus?

Well first of all it's useful even before that. Three examples: airports, work, school.

But once we have enough of these test kits, we can imagine testing an entire city in one day.

Everyone does the test and they self-report if they have it. People that have it are separated and treated. The whole population tests again the next day. And repeat and repeat until the train of transmission is broken and the virus is gone.

We have companies right now that can produce this stuff, or almost. But they can't because
it's not legal. It has to be approved by the FDA.

Unfortunately there will be people opposed to this. I struggle to understand their motivations, but I can predict the outline of their opposition. They will claim to be for it. They will try to slow down approval. They will delay it. They will try to mandate that doctors or nurses be involved. And they will do their best to make it as expensive as possible. For instance mandating that it be covered by insurance -- sounds noble doesn't it? -- but this will make it much more expensive.

Ken B said...

Mandrewa is right about testing. I have been saying testing is key, for months now. Our denialist cohort denies this, of course.

Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

Josephbleau said...

What kind of BS are you two harping about?

anti-de Sitter space said...

The bridge has Peyronie's disease.

BTW, I learned about that back before we had the deep state that was doing evil presidential harassment. If only that sorta legit and honorable inquiry was going on nowadays.

People seemed to be content
fifty dollars paid the rent
freaks were in a circus tent

narciso said...


Who knows

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1291478901609451522

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

" I have a lot of very rich enemies out there" --DJT
Maybe the last time you see me for a while

hawkeyedjb said...

Today is Hiroshima Day, the anniversary of the day President Harry Truman saved my father's life. He was assigned as a forward bombardment spotter for the invasion of Japan. He and many, many others were spared by the president's decision. It is for others to argue about the relative morality of hundreds of thousands of deaths from the bombs vs. God-knows-how-many thousands or millions by other means. My father and I will be eternally grateful to Mr. Truman.

Dad is a proud and patriotic American, veteran of two wars. He will turn 100 on August 9, Nagasaki day.

Gahrie said...

Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

4,000 dead from abortion yesterday. 4,000 more today, 4,000 more tomorrow.

Mogget said...

That looks like the boardwalk for Lake Wingra on Edgewood College.

Josephbleau said...

Actually you can talk about me
a human that does not speak;
a fixture that cannot speak
an academic that cannot critique.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

the Left wants to demonize/eradicate our culture of self-defense


-------

Dangers of Tylenol vs Hydroxychloroquine prior to COVID-19.
Deaths attributed to HCQ since 1963: ~20 DEATHS WORLDWIDE
Deaths attributed to Tylenol EVERY YEAR: ~500 DEATHS in USA alone
Even in massive HCQ overdoses (e.g. up to 40g), most patients survive with medical attention.
per James Todaro, MD

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeqiPiRXYAEZ9IV?format=png&name=4096x4096

Bay Area Guy said...

I hope Biden picks Karen Bass as VP. She's a California leftist, that offers no help in Ohio, Penn, Wisc, or Mich. And she loves Fidel Castro, which means she'd lose Florida.

Best, though, is that in response to her socialist proclamations, we could say, "Ok, Karen" a lot.

narciso said...

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/03/1005946/eli-lilly-is-testing-a-way-to-prevent-covid-19-thats-not-a-vaccine/

Michael K said...

Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

Maybe half of them real.

MayBee said...

I do not believe for one second that Biden will choose Michelle Obama as VP (although tonight is the first time I thought it for half a second).
But the Obamas have had a lot of sponsored moments on Twitter lately. Including the "low grade depression thing" tonight. Her podcast last week. Malia's birthday had its own emoji. Someone is hyping the Obamas for some reason.

paminwi said...

That crazy, delusional Jonathan Turley!
Doesn’t he know there is no such thing as Antifa?

https://jonathanturley.org/2020/08/06/why-antifa-is-the-keyser-soze-of-social-unrest/#more-161174

rhhardin said...

Hispanics are more diverse than blacks in political positions, just as Biden says.

I don't know why reality is being disparaged so often. The right is complaining that Biden isn't being politically correct, but why should he be.

rhhardin said...

Everybody's hindsight-heavy following the Beruit explosion.

It was a morning like any other as Joe-Bob loaded up the truck with dynamite for a day of bass fishing.

Francisco D said...

Ken B said...
Our denialist cohort denies this, of course. Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

What is the frequency Kenny? Oops! I meant what is the death rate, if you have finally figured out how to calculate it.

Hint: Fifth grade math textbooks might help. They have them in Canada, I hope.

narciso said...


A great addition to the squad


https://amp.dailycaller.com/2020/08/06/missouri-cori-bush-financial-disclosure

iowan2 said...

1200 dead yesterday
1183 ages71-98

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Things seem to be going well.

Bay Area Guy said...

Obviously, I think Durham and Horowitz coulda been much more prompt in their Russian Hoax investigations.

But.....

Ex-Colleagues see Durham dropping bombshells before Labor Day might give me some hope.

Favorite quote by AG Barr in the article:

"Under oath, do you commit to not releasing any report by Mr. Durham before the November election?” Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) asked Barr, citing longstanding Justice Department policy not to announce new developments in politically sensitive cases before an election.

“No,” the attorney general curtly replied.

These FBI fuckheads Comey, McCabe, Stork, Page, Pientka & Clinesmith need to hammered. Ditto for CIA ringleader Brennan.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Not found on CNN or MSDNC

Day 69: Rioters Set Portland Police Precinct on Fire. So Much for Promises Riots Would Stop if Feds Left

Ken B said...

“Maybe half of them real”

No, they all have names. Watch for them to vote Biden this year.

Even at half that would still explode your estimate.

Josephbleau: MarginalRevolution has more. Do try to keep up.

Ken B said...

MayBee
The Obamas will always be hyped.

Chuck said...

Thighland.

Lucien said...

If Michelle Obama admits she has a mental disorder does that help or hurt her chances?

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

Jar Jar Biden stays in the basement

... cuz he aint got nothing going on 'upstairs'!

To the contrary, he wasnt dissing Blacks with his "think alike" comment
He was complimenting them, since "If U dont vote for me, U aint Black"

Diversity of thought is not looked upon with favor in the Dem camp.
'Jose Siesta' has an Hispanic problem-- waning support.
Only one of his VP picks is one of those 'diverse thinking' Hispanix

Drago said...

Bay Area Guy: "I hope Biden picks Karen Bass as VP. She's a California leftist, that offers no help in Ohio, Penn, Wisc, or Mich. And she loves Fidel Castro, which means she'd lose Florida."

I guarantee that if Biden were to select that idiotic communist, you would be amazed at how quickly LLR's everywhere would come out of the woodwork to provide you with "The Conservative Case for Why Electing Out and Out Communists Is the ONLY Way to Conserve Conservatism".


Drago said...

Ken B: "Mandrewa is right about testing. I have been saying testing is key, for months now. Our denialist cohort denies this, of course."

Once Ken B went Full Inga with accusations of mass murder against those who did not accept the ludicrous and insane 2.2 million deaths estimate he really had no choice but to continue to double down on the lies to cover for his own now fully exposed ChiCom flu gullibility.

Tonight is no exception.

I Callahan said...

I have been saying testing is key, for months now. Our denialist cohort denies this, of course.

Because it’s an idiotic view. Testing in and of itself does absolutely nothing. It doesn’t stop the disease. It doesn’t cure it. Anyone who’s followed any of its trajectory can understand the patterns, so testing certainly didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.

All it’s been used for so far is as propaganda by the media to show how awful the country’s response to Covid is. Counts are “increasing” every day, because no one is being subtracted once they’re added to the list, and no one who’s died from it has been resurrected. So it becomes fodder for the scaredy-cat Karens (and Kens) to tell us all how we’re all going to die, and by doing so they prove that they’re incapable of looking at this rationally.

We could have beaten this thing already if we’d not sent old sick people to nursing homes, and instead quarantined the sick and old and allowed the young to catch it and recover. It could have already run its course. But politicians had too much to gain by overreacting and they certainly don’t have the stones to admit they were wrong. So here we are with all of this theatre, and guys like you fall for it.

bagoh20 said...

"I have been saying testing is key, for months now. Our denialist cohort denies this, of course."

Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.


Did we stop stop testing or increase it by multiples? The way some people in here reason, they might argue testing is killing people.

We also increased mask usage substantially. I now see virtually nobody without masks in public, I think most of us do it out of respect for the places forced to enforce it, not because we trust it to help. Back when cases and deaths were dropping rapidly, we were wearing masks much less, testing less, and protesting and rioting less. The numbers are lies. You have to accept that first, or you are arguing with bad data, and exaggerated premises.

exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...

Dad is a proud and patriotic American, veteran of two wars. He will turn 100 on August 9, Nagasaki day.

8/6/20, 8:40 PM

Happy birthday to your father! And thank him for his service.

anti-de Sitter space said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc5IbN4xw70

anti-de Sitter space said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsm4poTWjMs

n.n said...

Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

Many preventable through a Planned Pathogen (PP) protocol that includes the judicious early administration of an affordable and available disinfectant cocktail to mitigate disease progression.

Maybe half of them real.

Conflation of causes, with secular incentives, is a leading cause of Covid-19 diagnoses.

Drago said...

Uh oh. More bad news for Inga and LLR-lefty Chuck:


Judicial Watch @JudicialWatch 11h

"BREAKING: Judicial Watch announced that Susan Rice admitted in written responses given under oath that she emailed w/Hillary Clinton on Clinton’s non-govt email account & she received emails related to govt business on her own personal email account (1/3)."

Can you imagine how much flailing LLR-lefty Chuck is going to engage in to protect one of his most beloved democrat heroes?

Should be very entertaining.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

More about corn pop

Drago said...

Is it just me or have the lefties gone "oddly" silent on the whole Ghislaine Maxwell thing?

Almost as if it has become clear that there are alot of democrats/liberals caught up in it.....

gadfly said...

Blogger Michael K said...
Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.

Maybe half of them real.

Only one is real in the tiny mind of Donald Trump, who published a tribute to Herman Cain after he caused the former presidential candidates death by holding the ill-conceived Tulsa Trump reelection fiasco.

The Crack Emcee said...

Now even NASA has gone woke

And they're SMART and everything.

Lewis said...

The super heated version of myself - sweating, wanting this to end, a headache, super charged with sorrow - how does it end? I'm wearing the old shirt - I only have two shirts - flecked with blood. How to hope? A ridiculous question.

You know, if you ask, that backward glance - the 100 million murdered - history is such an unloved child - and to take on that burden - how does one do it? One doesn't - one runs away - for ever.

Big Mike said...

@Ken B., if you can stop setting your pants long enough, you’d be aware that the CDC admits that hospitals are incentivized to overcount coronavirus deaths. That was days ago; do try to keep up.

Also please let me know if you are ever going to acknowledge deaths due to the lockdown, people who would be alive today but did not get medical attention due to the focus on COVID-19. Pardon me if I hope that someday you.are one of them.

Lewis said...

I tried everything - finding the keys, opening the door, they tell me to get lost, walking backwards, closing the door, in the street, a kind of despair you can never understand.

tim in vermont said...

Last year at this time there were 400 apartments available to rent in Boston, this year there are 5,000. I imagine NYC has larger, but similar numbers. It’s probably a good time to stock up on big city real estate if you think there is an effective vaccine or other preventative coming, or that this is just a bunch of malarky that will disappear the day after the election.

The Crack Emcee said...

First, a woman wearing a swastika says she didn't say anything racist, and now this guy joins the historically-clueless-Americans parade.

tim maguire said...

Bay Area Guy said...I hope Biden picks Karen Bass as VP. She's a California leftist, that offers no help in Ohio, Penn, Wisc, or Mich. And she loves Fidel Castro, which means she'd lose Florida.

Having (for no good reason) stripped down his VP list to a small number of unqualified people is actually not the biggest problem with Biden's VP sweepstakes. No, the biggest problem is that the number one job of the VP pick is to deliver an important swing state that the campaign may not win otherwise. You know who fits that bill? It's not Karen Bass or Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren or any other top name. It's Stacey Abrams. And she would tank him in half a dozen other swing states.

clint said...

I'm bewildered by the testing regimes that people blithely propose.

Does anyone really believe that it's possible to manufacture, distribute and run the billions of fast tests their plans require?

WK said...

Ohio Governor DeWine tested positive and negative yesterday for Covid. So it worked itself out. Guess he was fortunate to get a second test and not have to quarantine for 14 days on a false positive. Or is is a false negative? Guess we wait and see. Perhaps he needs more testing. 2 out of 3.

Paco Wové said...

"Everyone does the test and they self-report if they have it"

I think I see the flaw in your plan.

Professional Lady said...

My uncle was on the west coast on August 9 waiting to be sent to the Pacific theater. He was an older man and had spent the prior war years serving as an orderly at a military hospital in England. He and many others were being redeployed to the Pacific. He was a happy man when he learned he didn't have to go.

Nichevo said...

Fox news flash: PDT has signed EO blocking TikTok

mockturtle said...

Susan Rice has been outed as having financial holdings in--gasp!--Keystone pipeline project! And Biden is running as a 'climate change' alarmist. The engagement must be broken off at once! Frankly, I think Rice is very intelligent and wish she were on the right side.

Big Mike said...

Now even NASA has gone woke

And they're SMART and everything
.

@Crack, fifty years ago they were. Now they’re just another federal bureaucracy.

tim in vermont said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tim in vermont said...

"We could have beaten this thing already if we’d not sent old sick people to nursing homes, and instead quarantined the sick and old and allowed the young to catch it and recover. It could have already run its course.”

You really should try to keep up on the science of this thing. It’s never going to go away. We have several strains of coronavirus that cause the common cold that people catch on average once every seven years. COVID-19 antibodies are already disappearing from people who had it. If you have a bout of COVID-19 every seven years, each time causing a little more compromise to the lungs, which studies of the that cruise ship have shown affect even people who had no symptoms, you will be using a walker equipped with an oxygen bottle in 20 years, whatever your age.

It seems like a lot of people, not just here, think that they understood everything there is to know about COVID the first time they read a blog post, from a person who agrees with their politics of course, on it. It’s called NOVEL Coronavirus. It’s new, probably hacked together by the ChiComs in a CRISPR machine. How is your common sense going to handle something that common sense has never seen before?

The best thing is to avoid catching it as best you can manage, hope for a vaccine that will probably have to be taken yearly, or a truly effective and widely available treatment. The worst thing is to decide that you are too macho to inform yourself of the actual risks as knowledge progresses because only scaredy cats think about risks and consequences.

tim in vermont said...

People have a pipe dream that if everybody tested, the people who tested negative could live normal lives and the virus would go away in a short while. I guess if we had the resources of the fictional Federation and a Starship to bring us the massive number of tests and the manpower to administer them and tend to those who tested positive and if the tests were five nines accurate.

mandrewa said...

"Does anyone really believe that it's possible to manufacture, distribute and run the billions of fast tests their plans require?"

Yes. A three-person company invented and developed one of the fast tests that Michael Mina talks about. They believe they can make several million of these tests in several weeks if given the go ahead.

I seriously doubt that is true if these tests have to meet the normal standards the FDA requires for anything medical. But if we can imagine relaxing those standards and barriers, then maybe three thousand people could make a billion tests in a few weeks time.

As for distributing and running the tests, well that's why it's crucial that ordinary people be allowed to self-administer the test and that it be possible to send it through the mail.

mandrewa said...

"Everyone does the test and they self-report if they have it"

I think I see the flaw in your plan.


Yes, I wondered the same thing as I was writing it.

It's not going to work unless you treat people well when they self-report. One idea that occurs to me is to give a reward to everyone that self-reports, like say a $1000. That's nothing compared to what is being spent on this nightmare already.

I do think there are large parts of the country, and probably most of the counties in Wisconsin, where only a few people would try to hide an infection. But the big cities are likely problematic.

It would demand a lot of organization. You can't do this for instance if you don't have a place to put all the people that report an infection, if you do a mass test in a city.

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

“Jar Jar Biden” — HA!

mandrewa said...

"if the tests were five nines accurate."

The tests don't have to be five nines accurate if they only cost $2 and it takes only fifteen minutes to get a result. With a test that cheap and so easy to do, you can repeatedly test day after day. Passing only means you are not infectious that day.

I guess I did not express myself clearly enough. The point is not to prove that someone does not have the virus. In fact these fast tests don't do that.

They only detect relatively high levels of the high virus but not extremely low levels.

This insistence that a test be diagnostic is the excuse that the FDA will try to use to block this.

Yes, diagnostic tests have their place, but this kind of test, if it is used properly, is an extremely powerful tool.

tim in vermont said...

"That's nothing compared to what is being spent on this nightmare already.”

Yes, it would go away if we just click our heels three times and say “There’s no place like home...”

tim in vermont said...

I wonder how a mass testing regime works with illegals pouring across the border daily? How long would this huge expenditure have to continue? Until the virus was wiped out, like small pox? Small pox was wiped out by a vaccine. SARS was wiped out because the victims only became infections when they were severely ill. If you can’t test all of the billions of people on this planet for some short period of time, like a couple of months, you are going to have to test everybody in the US forever.

The best you could hope for from testing is to keep the epidemic down to embers,but at a huge cost, embers which will flare up again as soon as they get the opportunity. Masks are cheaper and more effective, or would be if people didn’t have an emotional reaction to them. It’s too much to expect people to act rationally in any case. I imagine that in your plan, all of these people who refuse to wear a little cloth mask will happily self test and report.

I Callahan said...

It’s never going to go away. We have several strains of coronavirus that cause the common cold that people catch on average once every seven years.

I'm not sure what your point is here. Remain in lockdown for all eternity? Live with it? I can get on board with the latter, but not the former. My point, which you seem to have completely missed, is that the CURRENT method of dealing with this is not only not working, but is taking WAY longer to get us to a point where we can go back to living our lives.

COVID-19 antibodies are already disappearing from people who had it. If you have a bout of COVID-19 every seven years, each time causing a little more compromise to the lungs, which studies of the that cruise ship have shown affect even people who had no symptoms, you will be using a walker equipped with an oxygen bottle in 20 years, whatever your age.

First of all, I'm not seeing any reports that the antibodies are disappearing. Were that settled science, you can bet the mainstream media would be shouting it from the rooftops.
And I'm not seeing any evidence of people catching this twice, and for the same reason: the media would put that news front and center. That said, I ask once again, what are you advocating here?

It seems like a lot of people, not just here, think that they understood everything there is to know about COVID the first time they read a blog post, from a person who agrees with their politics of course, on it. It’s called NOVEL Coronavirus. It’s new, probably hacked together by the ChiComs in a CRISPR machine. How is your common sense going to handle something that common sense has never seen before?

There are plenty of actual experts who question the current narrative. That's more than enough for me to have my own doubts about the current policymakers, especially since these experts you have so much faith in have been wrong on just about every pronouncement they've made.

The best thing is to avoid catching it as best you can manage, hope for a vaccine that will probably have to be taken yearly, or a truly effective and widely available treatment.

Sorry, but you're not getting away with this one. You can't complain about other people reading blog posts and forming their opinions and be guilty of that yourself. You see, there has never been a vaccine for a coronavirus. So your faith in a possible vaccine is no less questionable than anyone else's opinion that this is all being overblown.

I Callahan said...

The worst thing is to decide that you are too macho to inform yourself of the actual risks as knowledge progresses because only scaredy cats think about risks and consequences.

It has nothing to do with "macho". Deciding risks is an objective concept, and in my case, living my life to the fullest is very much worth the risk. Under the current narrative, my will and needs are secondary to a very small percentage of Americans who've decided that their needs are more important. That's not how a supposedly free country is supposed to work, and it's something that an erstwhile conservative ought to be able to understand. I expect that kind of emotion first, illogical thinking from the left; you should know better.

Here it is in summation: the disease is deadly, but generally only to a very small percentage of the population - the old and already sick. So far, almost everyone else who's caught it has completely recovered from it and is living the same quality of life as they did prior to catching the disease (if you have some actual numbers that show me that I'm incorrect here, I'm all ears - good luck with that). The idea that we should all be constantly worried, and allow our politicians to have tyrannical power over us is laughable at best, flat out evil at worst. In a free society, people have choices over how they want to live. And if they want to live sheltered in their own homes and have groceries delivered to them, so be it. If not, they shouldn't have to. I don't know why this is so difficult to understand.

I Callahan said...

People have a pipe dream that if everybody tested, the people who tested negative could live normal lives and the virus would go away in a short while.

Uh, I'm not sure where anyone here has advocated any such thing. To the contrary, a number of people have already said that testing doesn't do squat other than give people a number. It does nothing to actually attack the trajectory of the virus, because other than a martial law type lockdown - close every business, no one is allowed to leave their home for ANY REASON - there is no way to stop it. You can slow it down, or let it speed up. The outcome is the same either way.

tim in vermont said...

"The tests don't have to be five nines accurate if they only cost $2 and it takes only fifteen minutes to get a result.”

IF they are not highly accurate, then the testing regime will have to continue indefinitely because it is going to miss a lot of people. Some of these tests missed one in five cases. Plus, as you said, expensive provisions are going to have to be made for people who test positive. What happens if one in five of them are false positives? Do we send them to wards with truly infected people? Make them actually sick? Or do we isolate each of them in a private room in some kind of very expensive containment setup? It sounds good to say that testing is the solution because it fulfills the wish of everybody who is not sick living normal lives. Always question carefully conclusions when they match up with what you really want to be true in the worst way.

I Callahan said...

Yes, it would go away if we just click our heels three times and say “There’s no place like home...”

How is that even close to a response to the point made? We ARE spending a lot (in downtime, people losing their life savings, having to close businesses) on this nightmare. Nothing is being downplayed by making that point.

You really are a river of pure emotion over this subject.

Chuck said...


Blogger WK said...
Ohio Governor DeWine tested positive and negative yesterday for Covid. So it worked itself out. Guess he was fortunate to get a second test and not have to quarantine for 14 days on a false positive. Or is is a false negative? Guess we wait and see. Perhaps he needs more testing. 2 out of 3.


The test that was a false positive for DeWine was the White House’s fast-result test. You know; the one that Trump keeps promoting and claiming that he doesn’t need a mask because everyone who comes near him is tested.

The “Hydroxy” of Covid testing.

DavidD said...

Ken B. said, “Almost 1200 dead from covid yesterday.”

Ken B. said, with no hint of sarcasm, “No, they all have names. Watch for them to vote Biden this year.”

Lewis said...

My house, where the windows are illuminated

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKYjUn-SBcg

mandrewa said...

Borders. Once a region has been cleared, the mass testing within that area is stopped but the testing continues on the roads and airports going into the region. Borders are how you gradually expand out the portion of the nation that is clear.

And many other countries would do the same thing until eventually it really is the whole world that is Covid-19 free.

But meanwhile we would have borders.

Although the mass testing only continues for a relatively short time, maybe a few weeks for a given city or part of a city, that doesn't mean you stop testing completely. You would still do surveys. We would be looking for embers flaring up. Once you find one you throw some resources at it and track and test everyone that person has been in contact with.

As long as Mexico is not clear, there will be people coming in illegally and sometimes carrying the infection. So the border area would need more surveillance. But eventually Mexico would clear itself of the virus and it would no longer be an issue.

Lewis said...

It's getting kinda long

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lk2KHajp4Y

Lewis said...

The stink of the usual man - who did you expect? Oh, ubermench - don’t you know that is 'politicly' very incorrect? What does 'Superman' mean? Bollocks, more bollocks, constant bollocks.

You want an idiot - well, give me a moment, whilst I lobotomise myself.

mandrewa said...

"What happens if one in five of them are false positives?"

Well I don't think that's true for one thing. I don't know what specific test you are talking about. But for the test I'm talking about I believe the rate of false positives is very low. And it's easy to get it even lower. If someone reports they are positive, well then the first thing to do is to give them the test again.

But yes, I agree that it's really important to have a good well thought out process for handling people that are infected.

As for infections escaping detection, there are going to be two reasons for that. First, people testing positive and then not reporting this. Second, the test missing an infection. This will happen all the time if a person has a very low level of the virus because the test isn't designed to detect that, but by the same measure that person probably is not infectious.

You get high reliability by testing day after day. The test is actually very good at detecting people that have high levels of the virus.

And actually there may be a third problem that may be more significant. That is people that can mess up spitting in a cup in putting a piece of paper in. Yes, there will inevitably be people like that.

Lewis said...

A friend of mine was destroyed by 'medical' intervention - so , when I make that 'joke', I'm not really joking.

Lewis said...

I want to go out and get another bottle of gin and screw the world. Irresponsible? You're talking my language. I haven't slept - I can't sleep - therefore I go 'mad'?

mandrewa said...

"First of all, I'm not seeing any reports that the antibodies are disappearing. Were that settled science, you can bet the mainstream media would be shouting it from the rooftops."

For this part of it, you are mistaken. I mean I don't know what the mainstream media is reporting. I try to avoid them.

But there was a study, a very important study, that came out a little while ago in The Netherlands. It was a long-term study of the common-cold. They had collected blood samples from ten people for many years.

About 15% of common colds are caused by four strains of coronavirus. And it turns out for nine out of the ten people, they were sometimes getting the same coronavirus year after year. On average the antibodies that they were getting to protect themselves faded away after six months.

So the fear is that the same thing will be true for Covid-19.

Now there is also T cell immunity which is a different thing from the antibodies, and which is likely longer lasting.

And there is an important detail in the paper, which you have to read the whole paper to actually find, and that is that three out of the ten subjects had Covid-19 antibodies in their blood in some of their blood samples. Not because they were exposed to the Covid-19 virus, but because the common-cold coronaviruses are enough like Covid-19 to elicit Covid-19 antibodies in the right circumstance.

Nichevo said...


rhhardin said...
Hispanics are more diverse than blacks in political positions, just as Biden says.

I don't know why reality is being disparaged so often. The right is complaining that Biden isn't being politically correct, but why should he be.



Would you like to tell us about the last election you won, RH?

Nichevo said...


Lewis said...
I want to go out and get another bottle of gin and screw the world. Irresponsible? You're talking my language. I haven't slept - I can't sleep - therefore I go 'mad'?

8/7/20, 12:28 PM



Lewis, do you need help?

Lewis said...

To Hannah Arrant

O, Hannah, there is always this:
Between the past and the future
There is this: dead? No, but
Wanting this ‘past’, always hoping
(‘Killed by hope’) for merely a summer:
A field, a forest, the wilder, wilder flowers.

I Callahan said...

The test that was a false positive for DeWine was the White House’s fast-result test. You know; the one that Trump keeps promoting and claiming that he doesn’t need a mask because everyone who comes near him is tested.

I call BS. The White House doesn't have a special test that it administers just for people who meet with Trump. You know you could actually try not to be a dishonest Trump-hating hack once in a while.

Lewis said...

Want, then, the smile, thinking beyond,
Merely, the possibility: guide
Yourself towards the quite legendary path
That, ‘as yet’, does not exist:
The mantrap, the green, the profuse flowers,
The red, the blue, the joke
And, yes, a parrot, the parrot
Speaking those words
You thought would come from God.

tim in vermont said...

"But meanwhile we would have borders.”

Good thing I wasn’t having a drink when I read that.


To another commenter

"Uh, I'm not sure where anyone here has advocated any such thing. “

mandrewa might be a little stung that you aren’t reading his comments, apparently.

"You really are a river of pure emotion over this subject.”

I would call that projection. I have been providing factual information which is then roundly ignored by people who would rather pretend that none of this is real. Pandemics have happened throughout history, many of them far worse than this one, and wishing them away did little good. This is a bad one.

" has nothing to do with "macho”.”

Same guy who wrote:

"So it becomes fodder for the scaredy-cat Karens (and Kens) to tell us all how we’re all going to die,”

Who said we were all going to die? You can decide that you accept the risks inherent with this virus for yourself and your minor children, if you have any, I suppose, and I can look at the facts of the matter with a clear eye to the best of my ability and not be cowed by wannabee bullies on the internet. Something about this pandemic brings out the bully in people, Browndog threatened me with violence, for example, if he ever ran into me. Was that a rational response? A rational response would be to ask for specific cites, then explain why they are wrong if you can, or accept them and change your mind. I have changed my mind a few times as new information came to light.

BTW, Tom Hanks, who had a bad case of it in OZ, has already lost his antibodies and has been told to isolate.

Drago said...

The Crack Emcee: "...and now this guy joins the historically-clueless-Americans parade."

Speaking of historically clueless, it was Crack Emcee who wrote that whites had literally been murdering, raping and lying for 300 years before any other peoples on earth copied them.

Literally.

As in, he actually wrote that.

I asked Crack who were the first non-whites to copy the supposedly white-invented murder, rape and lying.

Would you be shocked to learn Crack never responded to that question?

ken in tx said...

My dad was scheduled to be a landing craft operator in the assault on the Japanese navel base at Sasebo, Japan, when the Japanese surrendered. Sasebo is 30 miles from Nagasaki. He probably wouldn't have lasted 30 min and I wouldn't have been born if the bombs were not dropped.

tim in vermont said...

I love how “hope for a vaccine” became “have faith in a vaccine.”

What we really fear is long-term shortness of breath that could extend anywhere from being very mild to severely limiting. There is also a disturbing report looking at computerized tomography (CT) scans of asymptomatic people that found they were left with some scar tissue. So, this could even be happening on a subclinical level.

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/07/08/from-lung-scarring-to-heart-damage-covid-19-may-leave-lingering-marks/

"In the six-week scans we're seeing, so far I would say between 20% and 30% of patients who have been in hospital appear to show some early signs of lung scarring," says Dr Hare, who helped draw up NHS radiology protocols to diagnose Covid-19. - BBC

“We investigated the chest CT findings in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in an environmentally homogenous cohort of cruise ship passengers and crew members, comparing the CT characteristics of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases,” said the study authors in a statement. “Noticeably, we found lung parenchymal changes on CT in up to 54% of the asymptomatic cases,” they added.

The studies provide further evidence that people can be carrying the virus but not actually be noticeably sick, a big problem for containing the outbreak and further reason for people to practice social distancing even when they are not experiencing any symptoms.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/22/what-have-scientists-learned-from-using-cruise-ship-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1ba06f89406d