In 2016, President Trump broke through Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” He won three states that Democrats had carried since the 1980s: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin....First, "were he to garner 45 percent of their votes" — I just have to note the use of that word, "garner."
[N]ow, less than four years later, all three of those states have shifted again and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Trump....
According to Pew Research Center’s analysis of the exit polls, [Hillary Clinton] earned only 37 percent of the white Catholic vote.... As poorly as Clinton did, the largest percentage point decrease for a Democratic candidate occurred between 2008 and 2012, which suggests that white Catholics had “soured” on Obama’s presidency before Trump declared for the presidency. Clinton should have seen this coming...
While it remains unlikely that Biden, a Catholic, will be able to pull a majority of white Catholics towards the Democratic Party in November, were he to garner 45 percent of their votes, it seems likely that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will again be colored blue....
The wall that Trump may have erected by November is not along the country’s southern border, but a blue one across the Rust Belt.
Second, I've said it before, and sometimes I think I'm the only one who feels this way, but "Rust Belt" is an offensive term. On November 9, 2016, I wrote:
Suddenly, the place where I live isn't called the "Blue Wall" or the "Fire Wall" anymore. It's: "Rust Belt."
When we ceased to operate to generate power for the Democratic Party, it was back to the old insult.
If you call us the "Rust Belt," you are saying our time has passed, that we once prospered because there was manufacturing, but it's gone and it's not coming back. That's not what Donald Trump said to us when he campaigned through the Midwest in 2016. Where is the optimism?
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63 comments:
Where is the optimism?
Coming soon to a Trump rally near you!
Did the manufacturing come back? If not then Trump is just a BS artist.
They are optimistic that their voters are mostly too dumb to read, much less notice, their vocabularies. And their intentions.
None of the polls ever acknowledge that they also showed Clinton leading in those states in 2016, which turned out to be wrong.
When last heard from the Bad Orange Man said, “ I have not yet begun to fight”. That courage inspires the mid-western voters who know he fights for them. Biden has nothing to offer.
No mention of any changes in the Black vote for Trump? Only the white vote for Biden? (Did I get the capitalizations right?)
Althouse thinks that she and her neighbors in the flyover rust belt need to be pandered to because of their low self-esteem. Verdict = definitely true. Realpolitik. The deplorables are just tired of being treated like negroes
Where is the optimism?
The Democrats are not the party for optimists.
Why are they comparing polling to actual election results? Wasn’t the lesson from 2016, at least as it relates to Trump, is polls don’t often capture what people will do in the voting booth? Unless these same polls have him winning these states in 2016, I don’t put much stock in this.
Did racial healing occur? if not then Obama is a BS artist.
Regarding the "Blue Wall", a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest, la la la.
So in summer of 2016, the polls showed Trump losing those states.
In November of 2016, Trump actually won those states.
In the summer of 2020, the polls show Trump losing those states.
Sure, maybe those states "shifted" in 2016 and have now "shifted" back.
But I think there may be another explanation.
Along with the hate and violence???
Althouse: On November 9, 2020, I wrote:
Time travel! ;)
I've been hearing "rust belt" since the 70s. This post is the very first time I have ever heard that it was not a perfectly cromulent term.
What is the problem with the term?
Who thinks it is insulting?
Is "Sun belt" OK or is that offensive now as well?
John Henry
Who did Pew research predict was going to win in 2016?
"Unless these same polls have him winning these states in 2016,"
or unless the pollsters can explain why they failed to discern what was actually going to happen and what they have done to correct their error,
"I don’t put much stock in this."
I clicked on a Youtube video last night for how-to-do an outboard motor repair and got a Biden campaign Ad. Within two words Joe made a verbal flub. Joe was not relaxed or in command. Joe was straining to try to get through the 20 second reading. Joe's eyes were empty and were glued to a teleprompter. He sounded tired. His skin was so thin that it was almost transparent. He looked like one of those guys at the corner table in the diner who repeat the same stories every day. He will not be President.
There is a lot more manufacturing in the so-called "Rust Belt" than you think. Think blue collar jobs.
"The deplorables are just tired of being treated like negroes"
That would be such an upgrade, Howard Luther King!
The Democrat desperation can be seen in then efforts to stop the Tulsa rally. The BLM hysteria is failing.
Wisconsin should not properly be included in the "rust belt." We have the same number of manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin as we did in 1970. The average wage of a manufacturing employee in Wisconsin is just shy of $60,000. Manufacturing accounts for 20% of our state GDP and accounts for $20 Billion of the states $23 Billion of annual exports.
Wisconsin is seen as a manufacturing magnate for firms looking to relocate. I deal with many of these firms and they repeatedly tell me our workforce is inherently better at manufacturing than the rest of the nation.
There is on major optical change. Manufacturing in Wisconsin is no longer characterized by a couple hundred or thousands of guys working at the same plant (think AMC or GM). Its now about 20-50 guys working at hundreds of independent shops.
Yes! Rust Belt is completely offensive! My husband and I can't believe people use it so casually and consistently.
The Democrat desperation can be seen in then efforts to stop the Tulsa rally.
What Democrats are desperate to stop the Tulsa rally? "This is a really bad idea", is a statement of fact, not desperation.
If you are referring to Tulsa's government asking Trump to cancel the event, the mayor of Tulsa is a Republican and the city council is non-partisan.
"Garner" - to gather or collect. I'd say its use here is appropriate, as opposed to something like "earn." Sleepy, past-racist Joe hasn't earned a single vote in 40 years of sucking at the public teat.
The polls exist, at this point in an election cycle, to shape public opinion.
But they are useful lies for some people.
Thank he riots after Trump wins again will be epic.
SeanF said...
So in summer of 2016, the polls showed Trump losing those states.
In November of 2016, Trump actually won those states.
In the summer of 2020, the polls show Trump losing those states.
Sure, maybe those states "shifted" in 2016 and have now "shifted" back.
In 2016 republicans held the top three potions in Michigan government: Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State.
In 2018, all three positions were held by Soros funded racial feminists.
If that's not a shift, I don't know what one is.
Darkisland said...
What is the problem with the term?
Who thinks it is insulting?
I do.
Dear Reader,
You can count on June polls.
Sincerely,
President Dukakis
President Gore
President McCain
President Hillary
Freder Frederson cannot tel the difference between facts and opinion.
Very sad.
Browndog,
Agree on that shift.
And have the voters been pleased with their 2018 decisions?
"were he to garner 45 percent of their votes"
back when the Iowa State Cyclones were even worse than they are now,
a reporter asked Coach Jim Walden;
"Coach, what will it take for the Cyclones to beat Oklahoma this Saturday?"
and Coach Walden said: "Score more points than they do"
This is true in politics too, IF you get ALL of your votes, and a LOT of theirs... You'll Win!
it's not Rocket Science
The trick is being able to get ALL of your votes, and a LOT of theirs
You have to be into being offended, which is guess is the one-up thing these days. The ruse belt.
I figured it all out this morning.
The left will investigate and impeach and lock down and quarantine protest and riot and loot and wail and shout at the sky til we white supremacists give up and let them have their way.
Then they will be all peacey and quiet. And the blue wall just wants peace and quiet.
So it's like, what, mass blackmail? Extortion?
I will be shocked if Biden wins PA with his anti fracking anti energy rhetoric. “Let’s tear down the PA economy and I promise you better jobs bolting on Chinese solar panels” sounds kind of weak.
I know of one vote Trump just won (not talking about mine) when the “peaceful demonstrators” wrapped a flag around the head of a statue of George Washington, set it alight, and tore the statue down. It’s not about George Washington, whose shade is just a symbol, it’s about the destruction of America, and this is the campaign the Democrats are running, the most destructive presidential campaign I have ever seen certainly, but even read of. I don’t know what campaigns were like around the time of the Civil War, but I can’t think that they topped this one the Democrats are running today.
Don't polls always have the Republican far behind in June and July?
It's a wonder Republicans ever get elected.
The strategy is to give hope to Democrats and hope that Republicans become disengaged. That affects donations at this important point in time.
We have been called the rust belt since I was a kid.
Like being a cheesehead or the other dopey terms, most grown adults ignore such stupid trivialities and get on with their life.
Those looking to be offended would have found something to bitch about either way
""This is a really bad idea", is a statement of fact, not desperation.”
Same with the “peaceful protests” that are going to kill a lot of innocent people too in their wake. There was a picture of Deblasio out with the protesters not wearing a mask when according to press reports, he had COVID symptoms and was refusing a test.
“It’s bad when you guys do it” is what you mean. I think that both are bad ideas. So I have to base my vote on something else I guess, since this issue is a wash.
Browndog: In 2016 republicans held the top three potions in Michigan government: Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State.
In 2018, all three positions were held by Soros funded racial feminists.
Well, the article linked talked specifically about the polls.
Also, it looks like all three of those offices switch between GOP and DEM pretty regularly in Michigan, and all three of them were Republican well before 2016. But Michigan hadn't gone GOP in a presidential election since 1988.
Browndog: If that's not a shift, I don't know what one is.
Maybe you don't.
If you are referring to Tulsa's government asking Trump to cancel the event, the mayor of Tulsa is a Republican and the city council is non-partisan.
Freder, I know this is news to you but there are lots of NeverTrump Republicans many on the take from China or donors whose incomes relate to China. Trump ran against nthe Establishment, whofh includes a lot of Republicans. I suggest you read, Codevilla's essay on the "Ruling Class" You won't but don't say you were not given the opportunity.
As over-leveraged investment houses began to fail in September 2008, the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties, of major corporations, and opinion leaders stretching from the National Review magazine (and the Wall Street Journal) on the right to the Nation magazine on the left, agreed that spending some $700 billion to buy the investors’ “toxic assets” was the only alternative to the U.S. economy’s “systemic collapse.” In this, President George W. Bush and his would-be Republican successor John McCain agreed with the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. Many, if not most, people around them also agreed upon the eventual commitment of some 10 trillion nonexistent dollars in ways unprecedented in America. They explained neither the difference between the assets’ nominal and real values, nor precisely why letting the market find the latter would collapse America. The public objected immediately, by margins of three or four to one.
You could read the rest and you might understand Trump but you won't.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Did the manufacturing come back? If not then Trump is just a BS artist.
6/19/20, 7:06 AM
I guess my question is can they come back? Whether or not it’s the Donald, I think something that would be perceived as radical would have to be done in order to bring those kind of jobs back anyway. Maybe, because he’s an R, he could get away with such changes, but he doesn’t seem interested. I have a lot of trouble believing a dem could get it done, but who knows.
I saw “blue wall reforming” and thought progress was being made with cop retraining.
Having been born after much of the manufacturing decline, I always took the term Rust Belt to refer to the effects that the climate has on machinery and vehicles. I've lived in NY and IL and consider both to be kinda sorta part of the rust belt as well, I guess because I've always worked on my own cars and friend's cars and most of them involve battling with layers of the stuff. I could go outside right now, give my trusty ol' Ranger a kick in the side, and rust would fall from underneath to the driveway like hail.
Thankfully, the 550 doesn't share that issue. But on a long enough timeline . . .
Substitute "Snow/Salt Belt" and it's the same thing to me.
"Where is the optimism?"
Well, Dems are very optimistic that their sabotage of Trump and the impeachment efforts and the 24/7 media campaign and the post-Floyd systematic racism campaign and even the nomination of Joe Biden will not turn off the Althouses of America--that many of them have decided they will decide in November. Of course, their optimism is about prog power, not actual progress.
and the city council is non-partisan.
Haha they all say that. The nonpartisan push 30 years ago allowed Greens to sneak in to local govt. Also allowed Republicans in, but they're been cleaned out now.
Think globally, act locally!
Like MartyH I thought the writer was referencing police with blue wall.
How come we aren't hearing about Racist Al Sharptons rally in Tulsa today??? Funny how it was okay for him to have 3 INSIDE funerals for George Lloyd with hundreds of mourners, and now he took over the rally that Trump was supposed to have, and I have YET to hear 1 Progressive MSM person call him out for being guilty of spreading The Rona!! Is it only Trump supporters who spread the virus, or are they lying to us??? Where is Chrissy Cuomo??? Anderson Cooper??? Where are they??? Why aren't they warning the masses??? Oh yeah...it's an election year....only the Deplorables are bad. Continue rioting!!!
Where is the optimism?
The piece is a threat, akin to the think pieces in the NYT what threaten The Supremes™ on the bench if they don't vote the 'right' way.
Do the right thing or you'll be banished bask to the rust belt, flyover people...
Suddenly, the place where I live isn't called the "Blue Wall" or the "Fire Wall" anymore. It's: "Rust Belt. When we ceased to operate to generate power for the Democratic Party, it was back to the old insult.
Where is the optimism?
Indicative of the wider psy-ops strategy waged the last three years meant to demoralize the country on multiple fronts, including abuse of the intelligence and law enforcement agencies, the courts, media, economic sabotage and racial division.
The only question is the degree of coordination and how high it goes.
"I clicked on a Youtube video last night for how-to-do an outboard motor repair and got a Biden campaign Ad. Within two words Joe made a verbal flub."
Yes, I have been seeing the same ad the last 3 days on various YouTube videos. The funny thing is this- you know they probably shot the spot 20 times, and that was the best one. Biden isn't going to be the candidate, but the Democrats now face a real problem in finding a way to push him to the side.
I suppose you can argue about where the Rust Belt starts and ends -- I might agree that Wisconsin is not part of it.
But the term is accurate.
During the 50's and 60's, businesses in the northeast US had failed to reinvest in their capital base in order to pay ridiculously high union wages. Japan and Europe -- which had been completely rebuilt after WWII -- produced more efficiently and cheaply.
In 1971, Richard Nixon ended the last remnants of the classical gold standard and allowed the dollar's value to float. It dropped like a stone.
The resultant inflation in the US made foreign goods cheaper and the outdated and inefficient manufacturing base in the Northeast crumbled.
It has never fully recovered because so many northeastern states have become so overtaxed that very few businesses have seen fit to invest there. It's not an insult; just the truth.
"The 'blue wall' is reforming in the Rust Belt."
It might have been, but then the Democrats burned and looted it. The Left hasn't a clue about how badly they've pissed off the (actually working) working-class.
Also, try this fun thought experiment. Imagine the Trump campaign in the swing states. Now imagine the Biden one. Yeah, me too.
Rust, corrosion, oxidation describe/characterize transitive processes to a new state. #NoJudgment #NoLabels
There's another Blue Wall that has formed in the heart of Seattle. And while pollsters and Journalists! are looking over Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and let's add in Minnesota, the rest of the country, including those numerous and quiet citizens of the aforementioned states are watching CHOP in Seattle, the destruction of Minneapolis and other downtown areas in the various states. They're listening to the talk of defunding the police, all white people are racist and should be on bent knee, and noticing that the guy running against Trump is kept in a box for the most part and when he does come up, it's all he can to to complete multiple sentences while speaking.
Polls are fine, but the reality is that they've been horribly wrong on most of the important things for years now. I will wait for the actual vote in November. Or, if the Democrats get their way, the actual vote in October, November, and continuing into December until enough boxes of ballots can be 'found' to give them a decisive victory. Not that I don't trust Democrats but I keep getting this nagging feeling that they actually hate this country and will do anything to make it in their image. (note: See CHOP, mentioned above).
Joseph Goebbels is alive and well and living in newsrooms and academe, often as a woman.
"Time travel! ;)"
Oops! Thanks. Fixed.
n.n said...
Rust, corrosion, oxidation describe/characterize transitive processes to a new state. #NoJudgment #NoLabels
;)
"This is a really bad idea", is a statement of fact - Freder
Actually, it isn't. It's an opinion. And a textbook example of one, at that.
the rest of the country, including those numerous and quiet citizens of the aforementioned states are watching CHOP in Seattle, the destruction of Minneapolis and other downtown areas in the various states.
Oh yes. I can see the Trump ads with just videos of the riots and the question, "Is this what you want ?"
Francisco D: "Don't polls always have the Republican far behind in June and July?"
Yes.
Every single time.
Without exception.
Dukakis was supposedly up by double digits against HWBush in 1988 at this same jucture. And "President" Gore and Kerry was in for big let downs as well.
The polls are brought to you by the same lowlife Democrat operatives that bring you the "News." Consider that a moment
"Dukakis was supposedly up by double digits against HWBush in 1988 at this same jucture."
In the old days we communicated politically by trading multi folded photocopies of hand drawn cartoons, as was our custom at the time.
One was De Bush and De Cockus, one f*ing thing after another. Featuring a cartoon female genitalia on legs running from a male genitalia on legs, as was our custom at the time.
Blogger Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
"Did the manufacturing come back? If not then Trump is just a BS artist."
It took decades to leave. It will take ahile to return. But yes it is returning. But your childlike expectations that it suddenly erupt at your feet is duly noted.
Rusty said...
Blogger Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
"Did the manufacturing come back? If not then Trump is just a BS artist."
It took decades to leave. It will take ahile to return. But yes it is returning. But your childlike expectations that it suddenly erupt at your feet is duly noted.
Rusty said...
Blogger Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
"Did the manufacturing come back? If not then Trump is just a BS artist."
It took decades to leave. It will take ahile to return. But yes it is returning. But your childlike expectations that it suddenly erupt at your feet is duly noted.
Any resemblance between ARM's remarks, and either truth or reality, is purely coincidental. He, or she because this is a very feminine trait in my experience, thinks of words as blunt objects to hit people with to make them comply.
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