... you can write about whatever you like.
And remember the Althouse Portal to Amazon. Something I just bought there and highly recommend is "Stranger Planet."
June 28, 2020
At the Gentle Morning Café...
... you can write about whatever you like.
And remember the Althouse Portal to Amazon. Something I just bought there and highly recommend is "Stranger Planet."
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It Pays To Increase Your Word Power®
kafkatrap
To accuse someone of some form of "ism" (sexism, racism etc.) and to proclaim that their denial, or any attempt they make to defend themselves, is proof that they are guilty. A favorite tactic of the social justice warrior.
"Your refusal to admit that you are a misogynist proves you're a misogynist."
"Hey, that's kafkatrapping!"
The FBI is investigating Althea Bernstein's accusation that she was set on fire by four White racists while driving her car in Madison. On early Monday morning, she should lawyer-up.
-------
The Madison Police Department's incident report
06/24/2020 - 1:00 AM
300 block State Street
The MPD is investigating an assault on an 18-year-old bi-racial woman as a hate crime after she was burned with lighter fluid early Wednesday morning.
The victim believes she was driving on W. Gorham St. when she stopped for a red light at State St. Her driver's side window was down and she heard someone yell out a racial epithet. She looked and saw four men, all white. She says one used a spray bottle to deploy a liquid on her face and neck, and then threw a flaming lighter at her, causing the liquid to ignite.
She drove forward, patted out the flames, and eventually drove home. Her mother encouraged her to go to a hospital.
Hospital staff believed the liquid was lighter fluid. She was treated for burns, and will need to make follow-up visits to access additional medical care.
Investigators are looking at surveillance images to see if any of the assault was captured on camera.
Not content with putting a message banner at top that lumps Michael Brown with George Floyd, McDonalds' twitter actually changes its name to Amplifying Black Voices. It is quite something:@Mickie D's
Amazon is sponsoring a stadium in Seattle and calling it Climate Pledge Arena.
And in SF:
"In a letter sent to season-ticket holders Thursday, the Giants announced that games at Oracle Park will be played without fans due to the coronavirus pandemic, but the team will allow season-ticket holders to send in an image of themselves to be placed onto a cutout that will be displayed in the stands during home games.
Calling it the Giants Fan Cutout Program, the team said the cutouts will be an opportunity for fans to "be at Oracle Park even when you're home watching the game."
Heard an interesting statistic tonight. In February 75% of US colleges and universities were declining in enrollment and were expected to be gone in ten years. This was before the Rona shutdown and on-line learning delivered their blows. I wonder if those numbers are right? There's places like Oberlin, Evergreen and Mizzou that one expects to be gone soon - but 75% of the whole lot of them - gone? simply because enrollment declines? Still - you look at newspapers and their decline. It could be.
Peter Newell, the United Nations’ top children’s rights official, has been jailed after pleading guilty to five charges relating to the rape and indecent assault of a child.
last year
Peacekeeper Discovers Sex Trafficking Inside The UN With Ties To The U.S. State Department
https://www.collective-evolution.com/2019/02/06/un-peacekeeper-discovers-sex-trafficking-inside-the-un-with-ties-to-the-u-s-state-department/
Hmmm. Dyncorp.
Didnt one Epstein's planes and Dyncorp’s share the same tail # N474AW??
Tomorrow's Cancelled Couple
Every Man's Home Is His Castle
the scene of the armed St Louis couple defending their "petit Trianon"
...almost became une grosse triage
Althea Bernstein
Jussie Smollett
Black and Jewish.
They can go to protests... but not funerals??
Bagoh wrote the following bolded quote in a thread below about Nevada:
"Despite all that, the news starts every show with a disaster warning about all the new cases, without any mention of the widely expanded testing which does not explain all the new cases, but deserves at least a mention. The fact that deaths are as low as ever and still staying there apparently isn't important either."
I added Nevada to my spreadsheet- it is the last tab at the right, but you have to hit the arrow to see it.
I have been thinking about the links between testing and cases a lot the last few days, especially forced by the long, low plateau in deaths in all the states the media is panicking about. I am beginning to suspect the response of new cases is innocently non-linear with respect to the number of tests run. One of the things all the states are trying to do is to contact trace, and that always starts with families of confirmed cases, then friends/colleagues, and then stranger contacts at restaurants/grocery stores/etc. If your testing resources are somewhat limited, then your tests get focused onto a population that is more likely to be infected than the general population- those with actual contacts to a confirmed case. The process is iterative, and you end up testing a non-random selection of the population that is just concentrated in infected individuals. In short, if you double the number of tests run, you initially double the number of new cases, that doubled new case count also has doubled the number of contacts you have to trace and test. This eats into your new testing capacity, and all the additional capacity is now testing a population that is more likely to have been infected. So, a doubling of testing capacity ends up producing 3 and 4 times the number of new cases in a very short time.
You see this behavior in the New York data. When New York's outbreak "skyrocketed", they didn't have even the testing capacity of a small state like Alabama has today, and so they were forced very early to devote all their testing resources to only those most likely to be infected- their daily positive rate skyrocketed in less than a week, but I don't think it was the case that the numbers of infected were skyrocketing at much. A similar thing, though, might now be happening in the Sunbelt states- you have finally reached the point were the testing capacity is suddenly being devoted solely to tracing, whereas a couple of weeks ago those states still had lots of slack capacity to test anyone who wanted a test.
This explanation for a non-linear relationship has a big advantage- it explains why deaths rates/day haven't changed- in short, the testing really is just uncovering the larger body of infected people- that mass isn't changing all that rapidly, and so neither are the numbers of people dying of the disease.
I think if daily deaths in states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona don't at least double by the end of this week, then they never will. All those states have added more than double the number of active cases in the last 3 weeks- deaths have to respond soon, or it will indicate that the virus isn't actually spreading any faster than it was in May- those states are just uncovering non-serious infections at a higher rate than they were because their testing capacity has doubled and more since May.
...500,000 = number of people who have died worldwide from Covid-19
50,000,000 = number of millionaires in the world (even though the majority of the world is poor).
1 in 13,000 = odds of dying from Covid-19 worldwide (using the wildly inflated standard of simply dying and being positive at the time).
1 in 3,000 = odds of being hit by lightning in your lifetime (70+ years).
Climate Pledge Arena? So it's a floor wax and desert stopping?
POTUS probably thinking, anniversary of Benghazi can't get here soon enough.
Not sure what to make of this from the Twin Cities Pioneer Press, except that correlation ain't causation.
Here’s how COVID-19 affected Minnesota and Wisconsin differently. The reasons why are still unclear.
"While Wisconsin is more densely populated overall, Minnesota has a significantly larger metropolitan area. Some of Minnesota’s largest outbreaks per capita are in rural counties with meat processing facilities while Wisconsin’s cases have largely been in urban areas.
“We are at different points in the outbreak,” said Kris Ehresmann, director of the Minnesota Department of Health infectious disease division. She noted that Minnesota fared better early on in the pandemic, but then surpassed Wisconsin.
“The comparisons, I don’t know they are completely helpful. We’ve talked with their health department. We are not doing things particularly different from them,” she said.
The differences in COVID-19 fatalities — more than 1,400 in Minnesota and under 800 in Wisconsin — are stark and so far unexplained.
“I don’t have a good answer for the differences in death rates, at this point,” Ehresmann said."
10 years for destroying a statue? Maybe not, but certainly two years at least, which (I believe) loses them their franchise. And they were trying to disenfranchise the rest of us.
We make decisions by talking and voting. The rioters were not just acting without giving you a chance to vote, they were acting without giving you a chance to even be heard. I think this a very serious thing, much more serious than casual vandalism. It’s a deliberate effort to undermine the constitutional decision making process and the rights of others.
From the Daily Wire:
Authorities in Oklahoma announced late last week that they were charging alleged rioters with terrorism and assault, saying that they would not put up with “this lawlessness here.”
The DA spoke a phrase for the ages: “This is not Seattle.”
The Covid death rate will continue to fall or more likely stay at a semi-chronic low level. That is the global experience so far. The extreme differences between regions is also typical. Naples, Italy or Sevilla, Spain are showing no signs of outbreaks anything like Milan and Madrid.
The US is huge in area and population and for that reason alone there are going to be pockets that its going to take the virus some time to reach, so you will probably have a more persistent, chronic model than say Spain, but at an overall low rate.
As for the political impact - out of the US the entire Covid thing is generally outside the scope of domestic political controversy. But for the US - I don't know, you Americans hate each other so intensely that it has scared us out of the country. No doubt anything can be turned into political fodder. But I suspect something else will turn up soon enough that will drive Covid off the radar again.
There is also an increase in Covid detections/cases in Spain, tied to the relaxation of the lockdown, some similar to the US cases of meatpacking plants - in Spain among migrant fruit pickers.
And I believe some of that is also going on in France. I would not be surprised if it isn't the same all over.
You guys just need to get off each other's throats.
There is also an increase in Covid detections/cases in Spain, tied to the relaxation of the lockdown, some similar to the US cases of meatpacking plants - in Spain among migrant fruit pickers.
And I believe some of that is also going on in France. I would not be surprised if it isn't the same all over.
You guys just need to get off each other's throats.
In Spain and Italy this Covid thing went down while both nations were under left-wing governments. In France Macron is well known as a "deep state" functionary, hated by their version of the "deplorables".
There is zero ideological weight in this thing. Anyone who persists in making it so is likely doing it under Satanic influence. And that is not a joke.
I see that the Archbishop of San Francisco performed a minor exorcism over the pedestal of the toppled statue of St. Junipero Serra. He must know, or feel, that which I feel. There is something very wrong about all this.
@Yancey Ward: very interesting analysis. If the objective is to track and trace then increased testing of those that have symptoms, and those they have been in contact with, makes sense, is even required to effectively do so. As you say, the increased number of cases says nothing about the trend in the spread of the virus. If deaths do not follow the increased case trend then it is reasonable to say that the health threat from the virus is low and, possibly, declining. If that turns out to be the case then we can abandon widespread and high volume testing, the crisis is over.
Has anyone heard anything from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris lately? Am I just not reading and watching the right news sources, I am hearing nothing from those three.
Mike Sylwester said...she should lawyer-up.
-------
The Madison Police Department's incident report
Her driver's side window was down and she heard someone yell out a racial epithet. She looked and saw four men, all white.
In the fake-crime genre, "white man" is the new "black man."
@Yancey Ward - That’s a persuasive analysis of cases and deaths, but what do you think is going on with hospitalizations? It is conceivable that as hospital administrators learned that treatment capacity for COVID patients would not be exceeded, and saw the financial impact of the suspension of elective procedures, they lowered the admission criteria for in-patient treatment of COVID patients, resulting in a higher hospitalization rate. But I haven’t seen any evidence supporting that speculation. It’s also conceivable that there is actually significantly more COVID spread in some areas, resulting in higher hospitalization rates without any change in admission criteria, but hospitals are getting better at treating the disease, or the disease itself is weakening, so the death rate is not going up. Different explanations would call for different public policy responses, so I think it’s an interesting question.
Not a single lawsuit or investigation of Cuomo for violating federal standards and requiring covid patients back to the nursing homes? Not a single public threat?
This is how the game is played nowadays...
buwaya said...
You guys just need to get off each other's throats
George Floyd could not be reached for comment...
Trump has run this country into the ground, destroyed the credibility of 'conservatism' and made us a laughing stock across the planet.
I watch CNN here, because it is all they have of US news on cable.
It is the picture created by CNN that is skewed. Internationally CNN IS the US news. They are your BBC, much more so than VOA or any government source.
You have no idea what horrible damage CNN has done to the US, and this goes back decades, probably to the Reagan administration. CNN is run by your enemies, no question about it.
There are too many ARM's in the US.
Thats the simplest way to put it.
Insincere, thoughtless people with the numbers to impose their petty bile on everyone else.
Its a question of numbers, balance, and the virtue, or not, of your institutions, to resist the ARMs.
That is why you are done for.
That is why we are gone.
The clock is ticking, counting down to something awful.
That's a very generic troll from the ARM bot. There must have been an issue and they had to reboot...
I notice that in Saint Louis Missouri the mob wants to remove the statue of the cities' namesake, San Luis Rey.
Apparently a medieval French king is unacceptable.
This is not politics, this is anti-Catholic persecution.
@ARM, if you really believed the drivel you write you’d leave the country. You just wouldn’t be able to tolerate life here in America.
Hey, look what had just happened a three minute drive away from where that lighter fluid attack by “frat boys” and Hawaian shirt wearing thugs happened.
Somebody, using lighter fluid, firebombed the City County Building in downtown Madison in front of a number of spectators. The 911 call center had to be evacuated. Fortunately, the fire was put out before the 180 inmates in the jail had to be freed or die fiery deaths.
It’s almost like that ridiculous story of throwing a lighter between cars (they go out as soon as you take your finger off) was made up to cover for the fact that she had just used lighter fluid in an attempted arson, burned herself badly, and had to explain it. Kind of explains why she couldn’t remember exactly where she was.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/althea-bernstein-jussie-smollett-and-tawana-brawley/
rehajm said...
Not a single lawsuit or investigation of Cuomo for violating federal standards and requiring covid patients back to the nursing homes?
The rate of covid deaths in nursing homes relative to the general population in was lower in NY than every other states, by a lot for most states. Given this fact what would be the basis for any law suit? NY outperformed most states in protecting care facilities. Almost every other state would have to be sued before NY.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
The characteristic sound of satanic possession is not some insidious, clever argument. It is rather a cacophony, a disconcerting chaotic attack on every axis.
An agent of Satan is unlikely to be some debonair creature tempting through cleverness, but a crude component of a multitude.
Matt Taibbi does it again, this time
On White Fragility
“Trump has run this country into the ground, destroyed the credibility of 'conservatism' and made us a laughing stock across the planet.”
Or at last you the laughing stock of this blog.
"She says one used a spray bottle to deploy a liquid on her face and neck, and then threw a flaming lighter at her, causing the liquid to ignite."
I read this and thought, what kind of lighter could that have been? Almost all the lighters you see people using are the disposable kind. These lighters go out the moment you take your thumb off the button. It would have to have been a zippo type lighter that would stay lit. If it was tossed into her car as she said why hasn't she turned it over to police so they can check for finger prints? I guess it could have bounced off her and landed outside the car, but would that have been enough contact with her to ignite the fluid?
There's something screwy going on here.
“ Investigators are looking at surveillance images to see if any of the assault was captured on camera.”
Or maybe they can catch the woman splashing herself with lighter fluid, and lighting herself up. So far, that would seem much more likely. Instead of a rash of white on black racial attacks, we have Jussie Smollett and his noose, over and over again.
“Tomorrow's Cancelled Couple
Every Man's Home Is His Castle”
The problem for most of us would be the legal fees. But he appears to be the managing partner of a big law firm there in St Louis, so legal fees for protecting himself and his wife shouldn’t be that bothersome. That is what associates are for. And enough money to live in a house like that.
In the end though, that is what it is going to take, some people willing and able to stand up to the violent mobs, justifiably using the deadly force at their disposal.
Can any of you who are wisconsinites tell me, after your supreme courts ruling on 5/14, striking down the stay at home orders, etc., was Wisconsin basically open? (I saw the bar photos) This would be in interesting experiment if that was the case. All the other states like mine, PA, are micromanaging openings so they will no doubt claim credit if there is no further disaster. But if one state was just opened, no holds barred, it would make an interesting comparison. I've noticed that Wisonsin's hospitalizations are trending down as well.
"She looked and saw four men, all white. She says one used a spray bottle to deploy a liquid on her face and neck, and then threw a flaming lighter at her, causing the liquid to ignite."
Somethings not right here. Most lighters in use today are the disposable type that go out the moment you release the button that allows the fuel to flow. So they had to have used a different type like a zippo. Did it land in her car after they tossed it at her or did it bounce off her and land outside? If it landed in the car why didn't she turn it over to the police? Would it have been in contact with fluid long enough to ignite it?
So many questions.
"Satan" in Hebrew is translated as "Accuser." Fits doesn't it?
Big Mike said...
if you really believed the drivel you write you’d leave the country.
This should have been addressed to buwaya. I am here working for our country.
It is conceivable that as hospital administrators learned that treatment capacity for COVID patients would not be exceeded, and saw the financial impact of the suspension of elective procedures, they lowered the admission criteria for in-patient treatment of COVID patients, resulting in a higher hospitalization rate.
This is very plausible. I went back to Dartmouth 40 years ago to get a Masters Degree in epidemiology in a program run by Jack Wennberg. Wennberg had published a number of studies that showed how hospital admissions for high variation cases varied by the hospital empty bed numbers. Heart attacks and broken hips have a very low variation among populations. Admissions for pneumonia and anemia varied a lot and the variation was related to empty bed numbers.
A recent analysis shows the post riot/demonstration spike in diagnoses and hospital admissions but no ICU spike.
Beijing Boy: "This should have been addressed to buwaya. I am here working for our country."
By "our country" ARM naturally means China.
ARM has wisely abandoned last weekends Primary Lefty Lie that Trump supposedly ignored some intel warnings about russia paying bounties to the Taliban to whack Americans.
ARM has wisely abandoned that Latest Lefty Hoax because it was debunked in just about 12 hours.
Of course, it was always going to be debunked but by now the army of Inga/Howard/r/v/victoria morons have already internalized the lie as part of their "truth" and can never be dissuaded from believing that really happened.
Just one more Lie Log on the Lefty Bonfire.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
This should have been addressed to buwaya. I am here working for our country.
No one who cites the approval of foreigners as a reason to change America is working for our country.
ARM,
Odd choice of criteria in that NYT article.
A better way to judge would be the fatality rate of a state's nursing homes based on number of residents (not # of facilities) vs deaths from COVID.
Also, whether they counted deaths of nursing/care residents who died in hospital, which for at least some time did not.
Yancey Ward: the question of whether contact tracing is contributing to the surge in cases is something I've been pondering for the last week. As far as I can tell, there is little-to-no random testing going on (we have one group doing it in Corvallis; which ain't exactly a hot spot). What little I've read of contact tracing seems to suggest that it's not been very effective; in fact, I've heard that there are scammers(!) sending text messages to folks stating that they've been exposed.
I've been following "hospitalizations" here in Oregon (not all states give useful numbers) and we've had a minor increase, but nothing approaching the rate of increase in cases. In fact, the number of hospitalizations appears to have decreased over the weekend from 189 to 149.
Naturally, our governor is suggesting that she could close the economy again.
Nursing home residents per state (last updated 2017)
New York: 101,518
NYT listed SNF covid deaths 6,432
6.3%
Florida: 72,741
NYT listed SNF covid deaths 1,748
2.4%
Amazing that a shop teacher gets so much attention on this blog simply by reposting left wing propaganda almost non stop. I guess it’s best that he recognizes his limitations though, you have to hand that to him.
Obviously how well the nursing homes were protected depends on the intensity of infection in the surrounding areas, where the infection will come from, since the very elderly are pretty immobile.
If there was no infection locally then no deaths in the nursing home.
I feel worst for Drago.
Drago said...
Beijing Boy: "This should have been addressed to buwaya. I am here working for our country."
By "our country" ARM naturally means China
Or by "for" ARM means "against."
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Obviously how well the nursing homes were protected depends on the intensity of infection in the surrounding areas, where the infection will come from, since the very elderly are pretty immobile.
If there was no infection locally then no deaths in the nursing home.
So now we know ARM will protect the team even when it literally caused thousands of of "our most vulnerable" to die. What a reveal. The next time he expresses concern over them compare it to this moment.
So if NY does poorly outside of nursing homes, they can't be held accountable for what happens inside.
Got it.
And again, the numbers I showed don't include the SNF folks who died in NY hospitals.
Keep up the good "work" ARM.
ARM: "Obviously how well the nursing homes were protected depends on the intensity of infection in the surrounding areas, where the infection will come from, since the very elderly are pretty immobile.
If there was no infection locally then no deaths in the nursing home.
I feel worst for Drago."
Thousands of our most vulnerable dead due to the democratics explicit and purposeful policies and this is how ARM responds....which is just a day after his latest russia collusion hoax lie implodes....on top of polls showing already 20% of all dem voters believe Biden is in full blown dementia.....on top of state democrat primaries where Biden can barely pull 60% of the primary vote while running unopposed and the polls show a consistent 25% of black support for Trump.
Not getting any easier for our Beijing Boy.
ARM better hope the democrats and their LLR-lefty allies (especially the FakeCon LLR's in Michigan) have the polls locked down in the swing states and can deliver 500%, 600%, 700% or more turnout in the democrat city precincts with the usual "unexpected" 99% democrat voting margin.
walter: "So if NY does poorly outside of nursing homes, they can't be held accountable for what happens inside.
Got it."
Don't be too hard on ARM walter. I'm sure all his lefty pals at the marxist coffee klatsch are very impressed with ARM's logic and math "skills".
The losers are getting bitter here. Not my fault you backed the biggest loser.
ARM, your conclusions about NY and Cuomo are bogus, hopefully by mistake. If a state had a high percentage of their deaths in nursing homes, but they have few deaths overall, that is a very different thing from what happened in NY. If a state has few deaths, they should have happened in nursing homes, because that's where the vulnerable population was.
What Cuomo did was something very different, he sent the sick into that vulnerable population and therefore caused their deaths. He made the already vulnerable much more vulnerable. That is not what happened in a state like North Dakota where they had less than 80 deaths overall, but had 64% in nursing homes, so 50 deaths out of the thousands in those nursing homes). They didn't kill thousands which they could have if they did what Cuomo did. The people were there to be infected, but they just weren't victimized the same way by their Governor's policy. What makes Cuomo's nursing home disaster look less so in your reasoning is that so many additional people died outside of nursing homes which inflates the denominator. That does not make the disaster in the nursing homes less. That's just a cute deception that really shows how bad the entire state's performance was.
Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News
Poor baby.
"Trump...may drop out..." Hmm. Let's suppose he does drop out, who stands for the office? Mr. Pence would be the obvious choice, IMO. Now, does that help or hurt Republican chances?
I have an intense dislike for Mr. Trump, but I'll vote for him because his policies are less crazy than those articulated by Democrats. I'd much rather vote for Pence. That may also be true for the "never Trumpers".
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
The losers are getting bitter here
It's not bitter to note your partisanship leads you to cover for thousands of deaths. Nor is it surprising. Usually people are smart enough not to admit this type of thing openly but with enough talk people eventually slip up and reveal their true beliefs.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
7h
Sorry to inform the Do Nothing Democrats, but I am getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers. Just like 2016, the @nytimes
Polls are Fake! The @FoxNews
Polls are a JOKE! Do you think they will apologize to me & their subscribers AGAIN when I WIN? People want LAW, ORDER & SAFETY!
Bagoh20, your analysis is nuts. Obviously the states with the highest infection rates will have a proportionate increase in home deaths. What is striking is that in NY this didn't happen, they had much lower rates of home deaths than surrounding states like NJ and CT. These are the control groups and they show quite clearly that NYS overperformed in protecting seniors. Read the article, it is quite straightforward.
ARM, it has nothing to do with infection rates. The NYT is playing with numbers to protect Cuomo.
Thousands of vulnerable people were purposefully put in close contact with known infected people, which led to thousands of additional infections among the most vulnerable and thousands of unnecessary deaths. There is no way you can use percentages to make that less deadly than the alternative, which would be to not put such people together. You can play with the numbers to suggest that it was not that bad, but that is simply fake. It could not be any simpler. If you were elderly and in a nursing home, would you prefer to have lots of infected people brought in or not? Do you think Cuomo would do that again? If people like the NYT keep bullshitting everyone away from the truth, some other stupid Governor may put you in that situation someday.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
"Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News"
Trump is not really GOP. He's what used to be called a Moderate Democrat, but there's no place for one of them in the Democrat party anymore. They've all become left-wing extremists.
Trump ran as a Republican because he saw that the Democrat nomination process was rigged against anyone like him.
Trump is a rider and the GOP is his horse. Like a good horseman, he feeds and waters his horse. If they buck him off, that's one thing, but he's not going to get off until he is ready.
GOP insiders have nothing to do with Trump does or does not do.
bagoh, you didn't address the point that CT and NJ did much worse.
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