May 24, 2020

"Trump's advisers relish the contrast between his public appearances and Joe Biden's lack thereof...."

"Watch for plenty more mask-free outings from Trump, hyping the reopening of the economy and avoiding discussions of social distancing and death counts. And watch for a visual contrast between the two party conventions in August. Two sources close to the president said they hope to have a boisterous, live crowd. They want to have more people there physically than at the Democratic convention the week earlier, which will likely involve significant virtual elements.... While most Americans tell pollsters they're nervous about reopening too quickly, Trump is betting that economic concerns will overtake health concerns by late summer. Biden, who leads Trump in national and key swing state polls, has said the economy won't come back until people feel safe.... 'The danger for the president's strategy is the potential for a national relapse: the economy would suffer another blow if states reopen too quickly and trigger a jump in cases and deaths.'"

Says Axios.

The Biden side is banking on a relapse — a new, big spike in deaths. They'll have to guard against letting their macabre enthusiasm show. If they don't get that horrible wish, then they're hoping people will want to maintain an inert holding pattern and accept delaying the economic comeback. Trump is planning to emphasize his contrast with that depressing position. And presumably the Democrats will portray his optimism as dangerous idiocy.

49 comments:

rhhardin said...

I doubt there's much planning needed to beat Biden. His corruption might be reduced by mental degeneration, though, so that's a plus for Biden.

Sydney said...

Does Biden really lead Trump in the polls? That’s scarier than the virus!

Bay Area Guy said...

The Dems want the country to stay locked down.

But half the country is sick of this nonsense - or, more precisely, sick of this highly exaggerated viral pandemic, and want to get on with their lives, and restart their businesses.

So, the Dems want a "second wave" or relapse or spike to shut things down again.

They are horrid people. I'm glad they got their political asses kicked by Trump in 2016. I'm glad he reshaped the Federal judiciary with 200 or so judges, including Gorsuch & Kavanaugh, and I hope these delusional fuckheads lead by Slow Hand, Hair-Sniffing, Pussy-Grabbing Joe Biden, get their asses kicked again this November.

Big Mike said...

And presumably the Democrats will portray his optimism as dangerous idiocy.

Presumably?!?!? Certain commentators have been pushing this ever since Georgia announced a plan to reopen. But Texas, Florida, and Georgia have reopened and no catastrophe yet. Maybe relying on America to crash and burn is a riskier strategy than it appears inside iridescently blue bubbles like Madison and New York City.

Birkel said...

In a D+8 poll Biden led Trump by four points, nationwide, amongst registered voters.

In that same poll, Trump led Biden in the swing states by two points.

Take away the D+8 and Trump is up overall and by a wide margin in swing states. Make it likely voters and the margins swell.

I want these polls to keep Biden as the nominee. If he is (cough bull shit cough) "leading" he is harder to replace.

Sebastian said...

"The Biden side is banking on a relapse"

Progs want America to fail. We deserve it, being racist and all. What else is new?

NCMoss said...

Biden has the reparations card to play yet but it's not a matter of if but when he will roll it out; think obama-phone.

mezzrow said...

Does anyone really think Biden will make it to November as a viable candidate?

Paul Doty said...

Sure, Biden leads Trump in all the polls, just as Hillary did, even on November 3. These people are using the same playbook they always do and the only voters it works on is their own.

Michael K said...

They will lie, of course, and the lies seem to be about the WuFlu.

steve uhr said...

"The Biden side is banking on a relapse — a new, big spike in deaths. They'll have to guard against letting their macabre enthusiasm show."

Sure Ann, whatever you say. How goes your cruel neutrality thing this year? If you don't vote for Trump, you're the Queen of Trolling.

John Lynch said...

We have to open sometime before the vaccine is available- which will be next year. The sooner we reopen, the sooner the economy recovers.

We can stay locked down for six months and everyone will still get sick. The virus isn't going anywhere. All that will happen is we'll impoverish millions of people, too.

The Godfather said...

Trump HAS to push reopening. If the economy stays largely shut down, then (as of Election Day) he's accomplished NOTHING! The economy would be worse "because of" the last 8 months of Trump than it was because of 8 years of Obama. Sure, with reopening there's a risk of a surge of Covid cases, and if the surge is bad enough we may end up with President Biden, until he's succeeded (I predict before the Fourth of July) by whoever his VP is. But if there's going to be a surge, there's going to be a surge. Keeping the economy closed wouldn't stop it. Closing the economy didn't stop the 100,000 deaths we've experienced so far.

Leland said...

I'm relishing living in Texas and not DC or NYC. The contrast will only become more apparent as the summer moves on. Economic concerns overtook health concerns in April. I'm sure those watching the news are concerned about reopening, because they are being told to be concerned.

John Lynch said...

I wonder if Biden or Trump got a trial vaccine.

I totally see Trump doing that. Biden, no.

Michael K said...

More moderation.

Ken B said...

I don’t believe Biden is ahead. I might buy that “Biden”, a placeholder for a candidate to be named later, is leading. Anonymous candidates from the other party always poll ahead.

Ken B said...

Alas, the evidence suggests the Democrats are right, or certainly are more prudent. There is a real danger from an irrational exuberance.

n.n said...

The audacity of counting bodies with hope that a hockey stick should appear. Counting, conflating, inferring to ever larger numbers.

Kevin said...

It's becoming increasingly likely that the virus is waning with the onset of summer, like most respiratory viruses.

The Democrats have to be desperately hoping that a second wave in the fall hits soon enough to affect the November election.

omnivore said...

Don't reallly trust ALTHOUSE.

omnivore said...

Let's go with TRUTH

LYNNDH said...

Amen Sydney! Shudder to think of a Dem Pres, House and Senate.

Achilles said...

There was no pandemic. There have been years with more flu deaths recently even using the "presumed" and "assumed" numbers that are certainly fraudulent.

That doesn't even include the 10-15k deaths that resulted specifically from Democrat Govenors shipping COVID-19 positive people to nursing homes.

This whole event has been a fraud from the start. Not a single action actually taken by any of the states made sense or did anything to actually stop the virus.

Mountain Maven said...

Biden leads in the polls but trails in the betting markets. And like Hillary his polls will drop when he starts campaigning.

Steve Pitment said...

When your political prospects, both in reality and in the way you see them, depend on mass death and economic devastation for your fellow Americans, it is time to reassess and ponder how you have landed in this unenviable position.

FryingPanHead said...

Sydney said...

Does Biden really lead Trump in the polls? That’s scarier than the virus!


Been watching elections since Reagan. I have yet to see one with the Republican in the lead except maybe day of.

Steve Pitment said...

When your percieved political prospects depend on mass death and economic devastation for your fellow Americans - and you find yourself rooting for such an outcome, whether you are willing to admit it to yourself or not - it's time to reassess and ponder how you arrived at this unenviable position. Remember when Trump was the obviously evil one and you were going to save us from him? Good times.

Anthony Dorazio said...

I think the odds are good that Biden fails to mask his desire for bad news for America. He failed to mask that he takes the black vote for granted.

Rt1Rebel said...

@Sydney: I agree but I also assume the polls are even more tilted than those that had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.

Drago said...

"Biden, who leads Trump in national and key swing state polls,...."

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Pull the other one.

jamesleetn said...

You may recall that "the polls" also said Hillary was a shoo-in to be our next president.
I believe more people than you might think to misrepresent their positions to pollsters for whatever reasons.

Kev said...

(the original Kev--back after a very long hiatus)

Regarding the polls, why would anyone even pay attention to them anymore? Didn't they show Hillary beating Trump right up to Election Day?

My response to anyone who puts a lot of stock in polls (besides the ones involving actual ballots, of course) is this: Have you ever participated in one of these? Anyone in your family? Or even anyone you know personally?

And if not, then which demographic speaks for you among those who do--Age? Income? Race? Location?

Count me as one who believes that people tend to act as individuals, rather than members of groups.

Gospace said...

Does anyone rally believe polls any more? I live in upstate NY. Lots of Trump 2020 yard signs out already. Haven't seen a Biden 2020 one yet. Methinks because Democrats are still hedging their bets, and many don't think Biden will emerge from the convention as the nominee. I don't think he will, but that's not my problem.

If Biden is dumped, and Bernie doesn't replace him, the Dems chances go to zero. If Bernie does replace him, slightly above zero.

The other question is- once the indictments start rolling in (as predicted by Q...), what happens then? The average American who doesn't obsess over politics still doesn't know that the highest levels of the bureaucracy, on orders from Obama, attempted to unseat a duly elected President. When trials get started, they're going to find out. What's their reaction going to be? Is the media going to be able to convince the people the charges are bogus? You know they're going to try.

Kassaar said...

RCP’s Betting Odds have Trump leading Biden 51-42. 2016 taught us that opinion polls don’t count for much.

Wince said...

What if any uptick is in blue states that remain locked down and lean Biden?

Nancy said...

Biden is just another Voldemar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Facts_in_the_Case_of_M._Valdemar

tim maguire said...

It would be nice if Trump were doing more than betting on people wanting to get past the lockdown and actually pushed an education campaign to help people take the advancing understanding of COVID and transform it into policy and behavior. The general shutdown was defensible 2 months ago, it is not today. Knowledge has advanced, but public information efforts have not. Most of what we are doing is a waste of resources and energy.

For instance, the fact that transmission happens through prolonged contact with an infected person in an enclosed space. Outside, you’re pretty safe doing nothing and totally safe with some simple basic precautions. Give a serious dressing down to the clowns who want to keep the parks and beaches open and the people indoors. That’s the opposite of what the science tells us. Indoors, keep the hand washing and limit physical contact, but also push a well-funded program to get building owners to upgrade their ventilation systems, including UV lights.

Take a look at what the evidence really says about distancing and stop pushing 6 feet, which we’ve been pushing for no better reason than that it’s a nice even number.

Winnie said...

I hope President Trump is right. Here in Northwest Florida I've already seen several small businesses close. Even a thrift shop that supports local foster homes and programs. It's unfortunate.
Our short term rentals were just approved to open. Fingers crossed for a great tourist season. Fortunately the beaches seem like a relatively safe destination.

wendybar said...

Just goes to show who the REAL monsters are, Right?? How can you vote for people who are wishing death and illness on people to win an election??? Morbid fools.

Rory said...

"Not a single action actually taken by any of the states made sense or did anything to actually stop the virus."

Europe (the EU plus UK), using a myriad of approaches, is showing just about the same deaths per capital as the US.

Jersey Fled said...

We take it as a given that the media has tanked for the Democrats, so why not the pollsters?

One of the emails that was leaked after the DNC hack was an email to a polling company from John Podesta telling them exactly which counties to oversample in Florida to show Hillary in the lead.

I see the pollsters as part of the campaign. It's designed to shape public opinion, not measure it.

If the Democrats have recruited the media, academia, the IRS, the intelligence community, and the FBI, why not the pollsters?

Inga said...

“It would be nice if Trump were doing more than betting on people wanting to get past the lockdown and actually pushed an education campaign to help people take the advancing understanding of COVID and transform it into policy and behavior.”

Oh brother, you expect Trump to act Presidential? Instead you’ll get tweets about his feud with Jeff Sessions, conspiracy theories about the dead girl in Morning Joe’s Congressional office and skanky Hillary. LOL! He even got some golf in between those tweets.

Jersey Fled said...

Here is a sample from the Podesta email I referenced above. Atlas was the Democrat consultant that put together the plan. The plan was 37 pages long.

– Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
– On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.


Persuasion targets are respondents that can be induced to give the "right" answers using a variety of tecniques.

Amadeus 48 said...

I have said everything I want to on this topic.

We should get on with life.

Jersey Fled said...

National polls are really easy to manipulate. Just oversample NY and CA. That and the fact that we don't elect a President by popular vote means that national polls are basically useless. If you don't believe it, I refer you back to 2016.

Statewide polls are a little trickier. That's why you oversample certain areas, like Orlando and Tampa. This doesn't typically show up in the crosstabs, so it's easy to hide.

By way of confession, there are a few polls that I trust more than others. Gallup is one.

Bilwick said...

"The Biden side is banking on a relapse — a new, big spike in deaths." Nice people. But then you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs. And this is the gang that's never minded a little Democide.

Jim at said...

The Biden side is banking on a relapse — a new, big spike in deaths.

That's what the entire left is hoping and praying for: Massive deaths in order to win an election.

They should be careful what they wish for.

SensibleCitizen said...

Democrats are ghouls.

The most misunderstood aspect of the C19 situation is that most Americans are courageous. They're not scared of this virus and they want to be let out of jail.

Sure there are some groups with deep fears or concerned -- but mostly about others. We are worried about our parents and grandparents, or people who are immune compromised.

But in general, Americans are courageous. I see it everyday when I walk the dog past others not wearing masks and scoffing at the ridiculous group think being foist upon us.