April 2, 2020

You're running on a 10-foot wide path, ahead of you are 3 men, walking 3 abreast, and spread out so that there's no way to pass them with 6 feet of separation.

What do you do?

This is harder than the usual problem I've encountered on my run during the coronavirus rules of separation. I've had 2 people walking toward me and taking up half the path, and I've dealt with it by running off the path, even when it meant that I had to go onto rugged, leaf-covered, sloping terrain. I'd believed that I was sending them the message that they ought to have gone into single file and moved all the way over, and I was protecting myself (and them) whether my message was understood or not.

But I'd also thought that there's something a little passive and cold about just demonstrating that they're not doing it right, so the 3 men walking 3 abreast — at a spot where brush prevented running off the trail — gave me the push I needed to actually speak to people. I do say "Good morning" or "Hello" to people I pass. It's not as though I'm afraid or too snooty to speak to strangers, but I don't like to tell people they are doing something wrong.

So I said what we say when we're biking and I'm on my bike that doesn't have a bell: "Passing on your left." The 3 men turned around and looked a little confused. I said, "Could you go single file and get all the way over?" And: "Thanks."

Ah! That worked, and I was glad to have made a breakthrough. Talking to people. Being friendly, but saying what is needed. Being straightforward. I'm trying to help.

And then there, up ahead, there's a man and a woman — maybe about 25  years old — walking toward me with the man along their right side and the woman walking right down the middle of the path, leaving me maybe 4 feet, so that I could not pass with a 6-foot separation. Before I got to them, I stepped off the path into the leaves to get my distance, but as they passed, I decided to speak to them.

I say (calmly): "You know, it would help if you went single file to pass and got all the way over."

Turning back, the woman corrects me: "You have plenty of room."

I say: "You don't know what I'm talking about?"

And the man, with a completely supercilious look on his face and his hands at eye level and wiggling his fingers in a brushing-me-back gesture, says: "Move along."

My spoken words were — and this is verbatim — "Wow. Oh, man. Okay." My unspoken words will remain unwritten.

282 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 282 of 282
walter said...

Howard will be conditioned for SCUBAless deep sea diving when this is over. But he will leave behind some traumatized checkout clerks "Are you ok, sir?"
Ann, consider one of those jingly cat collars. Madison is full of cat people.

Dave Begley said...

I was at the hospital today for a test. Nurses at the front door. I'm leaving and they get all agitated as a health care worker is too close to me on the way out the door. I'm out first, but she's gaining on me. She's on the phone. "I'm quarantined for another 14 days. I'm so pissed." I think she said she had Covid19. This woman was angry and walking fast.

NCMoss said...

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have blogs I need to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.

Ice Nine said...

Althouse, You have told us about your "isolation" practice. You stay at home, etc. You go out where you know you will encounter other people in close proximity (You just described that inevitable condition). You refuse to wear a mask because it would flaw your woodland experience.

You are, in fact, engaging in Isolation Lite. That's fine if that is your choice but just understand that you increase your risk of infection by that "lite" increment of trail exposure and no mask. Again, your call, and probably reasonable. Just don't be indignant that your "isolation" - by your hand - is not somehow the 100% that you unreasonably think it should be in those circumstances.

Also the six foot thing is a nice general principle but it is not the talisman that you seem to see it as.

Francisco D said...

What do you do?

It has been 50 years since I played HS football, but my first instincts were to go for the knees on the guy in the middle.

Bicyclist typically say "passing on the right" when they come upon walkers or joggers. We need a similar saying for runners.

Yesterday, some inexperienced bikers called out "hello" to pass us on a quiet desert path. I almost jumped out of my skin because I am used to "passing on the right".

CStanley said...

@Pants...

Generally I’m in the group that agrees with Althouse/Meade, Ken B, Freeman, and a few others here about the seriousness of the situation and need for drastic measures. I feel for everyone affected badly by the economic shutdown though, including your family. For that matter my family too even though we are in decent shape.

I certainly agree that things like pulling over cars with two people in them is insane (the presumption of course should be that these are people from the same household.)

On other things I disagree with you. If people are told that voluntarily giving up activities that involve congregating is needed to prevent catastrophic loss of life, but they don’t believe that and continue their normal activities, then in a public health situation I can’t be liberatarian.

But I assume your views are based on the way you interpret the facts and mine are based on a different interpretation. I find it distressing to see everyone assuming bad faith. Agree with you that Ken B’s style is off putting, but it’s the same for those of us on the other side when folks keep quoting the local numbers of cases as though that proves that this isn’t serious.

LA_Bob said...

Shouting Thomas said, "It appears to me that infection by family member was the most common vector."

That's exactly what the WHO report cited in the "infamous" Aaron Ginn article said (see page 8, "Household Transmission" of the WHO report).

I completely agree with rhhardin. You can always take a breath before passing folks and exhale just after you go by. I did that yesterday in a walk at the park.

Were the people you passed coughing or sneezing? My guess is no, which certainly suggests reduced risk, especially with a momentary encounter.

Finally, you can always turn around and go the other way until you find a comfortable place to pass. The mid-20's folks probably feel -- with considerable justification -- that they have no personal risk. But the discourtesy is annoying.

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

Don’t get supercilious with me, Buster!

LA_Bob said...

"Who *runs* with a medical mask on?"

Over a week ago, I walked up a steep hill (maybe 400 feet, I'm not sure) at a large park at the outskirts of Los Angeles. I saw a high-school or college-age kid run up the hill wearing a mask. He had two buddies, both maskless, who walked up the hill.

Later at the top I saw him walk around playing air guitar.

Freeman Hunt said...

People are extremely polite where I live, but they also expect other people to be polite. Some asshole making a finger brush movement at face level and saying, "Move along," would have to change his behavior or find himself in constant angry verbal (or worse) altercations with people.

I once listened to Outliers while cleaning out the garage. This bit was arresting:

The experiment went like this. The social sciences building at the University of Michigan has a long, narrow hallway in the basement lined with filing cabinets. The young men were called into a classroom, one by one, and asked to fill out a questionnaire. Then they were told to drop off the questionnaire at the end of the hallway and return to the classroom–a simple, seemingly innocent academic exercise.

For half of the young men, that was it. They were the control group. For the other half, there was a catch. As they walked down the hallway with their questionnaire, a man–a confederate of the experimenters–walked past them and pulled out a drawer in one of the filing cabinets. The already narrow hallway now became even narrower. As the young men tried to squeeze by, the confederate looked up, annoyed. He slammed the filing cabinet drawer shut, jostled the young men with his shoulder, and in a low but audible voice said the trigger word: “Asshole” . . . The results were unequivocal. There were clear differences in how the young men responded to being called a bad name. For some, it changed their behavior. For some it didn’t. The deciding factor in how they reacted wasn’t how emotionally secure they were, or whether they were intellectuals or jocks, or whether they were physically imposing or not. What mattered–and I think you can guess where this is heading–was where they were from.


Where I'm from, the experiment sounds semi-dangerous.

Original Mike said...

Personally, I'm not going anywhere near an urban trail. Paraphrasing Glenn Reynolds from yesterday, 'the next few weeks are for all the marbles."

BrianE said...

The 6' rule is based on how far droplets between 60-100 micron will travel when a person coughs. It travels further if a person sneezes.
The droplets travel less than 1 meter when you are simply breathing. You

"Our study reveals that for respiratory exhalation flows, the sizes of the largest droplets that would totally evaporate before falling 2 m away are between 60 and 100 micron, and these expelled large droplets are carried more than 6 m away by exhaled air at a velocity of 50 m/s (sneezing), more than 2 m away at a velocity of 10 m/s (coughing) and less than 1 m away at a velocity of 1 m/s (breathing)."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17542834

Charlie Currie said...

D.D.Driver: ...And they ALL think the "other guy" is the jerk.

I think pedestrians in the crosswalk when I'm trying to make a turn are jerks.

Jack Klompus said...

What really got me was the guy being an asshole to support his woman, who was being a bitch to another woman. I wonder what they said to each other later. So many possibilities!

Uber liberal and college (I repeat) towns are full of people like this, at least among the whitebread set. I've never met so many passive aggressive weenies as I did living in Austin and traveling in Boulder and Portland. It's like dealing with a town full of Howards. Here in Philly you'll get it in Center City and the proggy parts of town like University City, but in the working class black and white neighborhoods you'd get punched in the face for acting like that toward a stranger.

Charlie Currie said...

BrianE said: "Our study reveals that for respiratory exhalation flows, the sizes of the largest droplets that would totally evaporate before falling 2 m away are between 60 and 100 micron, and these expelled large droplets are carried more than 6 m away by exhaled air at a velocity of 50 m/s (sneezing), more than 2 m away at a velocity of 10 m/s (coughing) and less than 1 m away at a velocity of 1 m/s (breathing)."

Anyone with a cough or habitual sneeze should be wearing a mask when around others. This would do more good than everyone staying at home.

Cameron said...

Here in Brooklyn, we're leaving the sidewalk and walking in the street to pass people. This is perfectly safe, because there are hardly any cars on the roads.

JohnAnnArbor said...

You're either an idiot or an asshole. (said of the walkers)

Or both, in this case.

LordSomber said...

Who *runs* with a medical mask on?

Sounds strange but it's crossed my mind after seeing joggers huffing their way down main thoroughfares hyperventilating carbon monoxide fumes from traffic.
*Especially* after they go on about how "healthy" they try to be.

Mask probably wouldn't help anyway though.

D.D. Driver said...

"The 6' rule is based on how far droplets between 60-100 micron will travel when a person coughs. It travels further if a person sneezes.
The droplets travel less than 1 meter when you are simply breathing."

Common sense and experience says that the safe distance should be shorter outdoors than indoors. So if 6 feet is the recognized "safe distance" indoors the safe distance outdoors is almost certainly shorter. How much shorter? NOBODY KNOWS! Because this all estimates and rules of thumbs. There is not real science or peer reviewed studies about a safe distances on a jogging path.

For crying out loud, its 2020 and we still don't have solid data on the blast radius of a fart: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-blast-radius-of-a-fart

But I do know that an indoor fart can fill up a room, but with an outdoor fart you can almost get away with murder.

Sebastian said...

CS: "If people are told that voluntarily giving up activities that involve congregating is needed to prevent catastrophic loss of life"

We need to try and prevent old and sick people dying prematurely. We need to try and limit the spike in demand for care. But most activities that involve young healthy people congregating do not involve catastrophic loss life to hem, or any harm beyond the ordinary. What we need to do is keep old and sick (and infected, insofar as we know) people out of the way.

Example: how many kids playing soccer or basketball these last few weeks have experienced any complications? Keeping kids from going to parks does not save any lives and slows the building up of herd immunity.

In fact, to harp on my favorite example: how many athletes have been affected in any serious way, worldwide? One, to my knowledge. One. Sure, avoid crowds for a while, but since there is no evidence showing danger (happy to be corrected if anyone knows more), reopen sports safely. Start with golf.

Of course, reopening sports would indicate that the epidemic actually does not harm a wide swath of the population. Politically inconvenient, I know. Better impose draconian lockdowns. Just so "we are all in this together." At ruinous cost.

Wilbur said...

Well done, Andy.

I delivered pizza at the University of Illinois in 1976 ... the most enjoyable - and busiest - job I ever had.

Curious George said...

"tcrosse said...
On board ship it was traditional to make way by saying "Lady with a baby"."

Navy folks say "Make a hole" when encountering people blocking a passage.

Fernandinande said...

Outliers

I instinctively disbelieve, well, ignore is more like it, anything from Gladwell, but here's a link to the actual study, and a description of the participants:

Participants
"Participants were 148 white male undergraduates (88 northern, 60 southern) at the University of Michigan who were recruited by telephone and paid $15. Southerners were defined as anyone who had lived at least 6 years in the South; all other participants were considered northerners. On average, southern participants had spent 80% of their life in the South, compared with northerners, who had spent 5% of their life in the South. Black, Jewish, and Hispanic students were excluded."

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

“It’s best not to expect too much of your fellow man”

Certainly, but it sounds like Althouse has little experience with strangers in potentially contentious situations, Covid or no. You can bring your charm, you can bring your powers of persuasion, you can bring your facts and, at the right moment, you can even bring your anger. What you can’t do is bring your self-righteousness. Nothing makes the fur stand up faster. The young couple acted exactly as they were conditioned to do coming from some young people’s milieu. Not good but not a bit surprising, either.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Next time, try saying, as nice as possible of course, "I was in Australia."

*Some Australians hand delivered covid-Wuhan to Colorado's ski area(s).

Howard said...

LoL Walter. Great Idea for a Palestinian Balaclava style surgical mask. Nothing quite says back the eff off like that.

Dr Weevil said...

A thought that may comfort you: The 25-year-old couple couldn't go single file, even for a moment, because the guy knew that, if he walked behind, the blow to his manly self-esteem would mean he wouldn't be able to get it up for a week, and if he walked in front she would nag him for two weeks about it, with pretty much the same effect. They were demonstrating the dysfunctionality of their relationship, as well as their shared assholicity and pathetically fragile self-images. (Given the size of the Althouse readership, there's a 1-in-a-1,000 chance one or both of them will read this: I certainly hope so.)

Howard said...

Blogger Original Mike said...

Personally, I'm not going anywhere near an urban trail. Paraphrasing Glenn Reynolds from yesterday, 'the next few weeks are for all the marbles."


Exactly. Glad to see Instapuke didn't go for the hoax wink and nod (trigger Drago).

If your not on the water, you can't catch fish

CStanley said...

I think, Sebastian, that it’s a misconception that the young don’t get sick. For kids, yes, it’s rare and probably only those with serious heart issues are vulnerable. But a size able number of young and especially middle aged adults are going to end up in ICUs on ventilators. They generally will survive but that doesn’t mean it can be taken lightly.

Narr said...

It seems to me that if a person is really serious about SIP, ze should SIP.

Do not go jogging. What happens when you step wrong and turn or break your ankle? Do we need healthcare resources--EMTs, nurses and doctors, emergency rooms-- diverted from C-19 so old people can indulge in dangerous activities?

For that matter, every time you drive to the park you are increasing the chances of having an accident, which will, again, have no other result than the diversion of medical resources from the crisis.

The responsible thing to do, is stay in bed until 1 May 2020, or death, whichever comes first.

Narr
For the children!

mockturtle said...

I see a lot of men still coughing into their hands. In stores. Before handling stuff.

PJ57 said...

This is why I always run with a samurai sword at my hip.

Michael said...

You know, I am OK with four feet or even three for the four or five seconds it will take for me to close and then extend the distance. Risk taker.

mockturtle said...

This is why I always run with a samurai sword at my hip.

You really need two, PJ57. A katana and a wakizashi.

n.n said...

The social contagion spreads faster than the virus.

CStanley said...

No one has a right to demand the rest of society walk in single file and talk to the back of each others' heads because one person want to go out jogging by themselves

Is this commenter actually thinking that anyone is suggesting that people do their entire walk single file? We’re talking about less than 30 seconds, stepping to the side to allow someone to pass. There is absolutely no reason that anyone should feel aggrieved at the expectation to do this. It’s exactly what everyone does when they are on a narrower trail, you’re just extending the practice to wider paths as well.

Jeff said...

I don't understand. What were you running from? Was someone chasing you? Did you need to get somewhere quickly? If so, why not drive?

Freeman Hunt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Freeman Hunt said...

"I instinctively disbelieve, well, ignore is more like it, anything from Gladwell,"

Same. But enough people asked me my thoughts about things in it that I began to feel obligated. It was good for a short, easy listen while cleaning the garage.

Their definition of Northerner is highly questionable as is their expanded definition of Southerner in experiments 2 and 3. However, I'm still shocked that anyone would respond to an insult and shoulder check in a university building without confrontation. If you do that here, the person is going to stop and demand to know what possessed you.

Danno said...

I read an article yesterday about a large group of UW-Madison students (i.e., fraternity and sorority types) had caught the covid-19 coronavirus in Gulf Shores, Alabama during their spring break. So many college-age people are clueless today.

Jeff said...

College students are highly unlikely to develop a serious illness if infected by Covid-19. They should have been kept on campus, let the virus run wild, and within a month or two they would almost all have recovered and gained antibodies to the virus. You just don't want them mingling with older, more vulnerable people until they are no longer contagious.

dreams said...

I noticed that the 3 men were more obliging and also it occurred to me that the man with the woman would probably have reacted differently too if he was with a another man and not with the entitled woman.

dbp said...

We have a paved path near by us which is pretty narrow compared to Althous' one. Ours is maybe 5-6 feet wide of blacktop and then another couple of feet on each side where you could run, walk or ride a bike-if the tires are not those really skinny ones.

Generally, people are courteous and logical, they try to make decent room for each other. Most of the time, I am passing a single person and we are on opposite sides of the pavement for a decent berth. When I approach from behind, it is tricky: I am old (57) and easily hear people or bikes coming up from behind, but people can be in conversations, have headphones or maybe don't hear so well--maybe some of the "hard of hearing" are just being assholes.

I hold my breath as I speed by, if the space is tight and I am pretty willing to run in the weeds and gravel. The hardest part is when there is a parent with novice children on bikes. It is damnably difficult to predict when they will choose to zig and/or zag. There have been close calls.

There is a phenomena, which I don't fully understand: I run on our country/suburban roads as well as the path. When I am walking, I feel much safer on the path than on the roads. Cars seem like a much larger menace when I am walking than when I am running. I think cars give me more room when I am running than when I am walking. Maybe it is because when I am walking, I am usually with another person but when I run alone I like to be by myself.

Francisco D said...

Howard said: I understand you people probably do not have a stockpile of hundreds of prostrate exam gloves like I do.

If you are not a urologist, what are you doing with those gloves, Howard?

I also have hundreds of the nitrile gloves. I use them for handling raw meat and my wife uses them for art projects.

After 15 years of prostate exams, I refuse to call them "prostate exam gloves".

Linda said...

I used the word fartlek on purpose because it always makes me laugh! I don't think we use it much in the US, we instead simply say speed work - but it is a fun word to use and then explain that it really is a word!

Rosalyn C. said...

How many people can accurately estimate 6'? Probably not many. Maybe I'll put a tape measure in my bag as a public service. I just hold my breath until I am at least 6' away when I pass by people. And I've decided to wear a mask where I have to be around people, such as the food store. I happen to have some N95 masks left over from when I had a smoker as a neighbor. That's a silver lining to an otherwise hideous experience.

One thing I keep in mind is that I heard Dr. Deborah Birx on a social media site for millennials define "social distancing" as keeping a 6' distance when you are with someone for 10 minutes or more. I'm not sure why she said that time factor to them -- probably something along the lines of not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Most of all I'm staying inside, doing a lot of handwashing if I have to touch things and concentrating on not touching my face. Hope that is good enough. My surgical technique is not sterile for sure.

A few days ago I did get pissed off at a kid who was blocking a walk way with her bike. I just told her to move her bike. She pretended to not hear me so I asked her if she didn't speak English (just to really piss her off) and then asked if she could not hear? I could see I hit a nerve and then asked if she was going to respond at all but then I kept walking. A moment later I passed a couple of girls who exclaimed, "Is she going to ride her bike down the steps to the beach?!!" but I refused to look back to see what she did next. Screw her.

Ralph L said...

I refused to look back to see what she did next. Screw her.

You might have missed a chance to put her on FailArmy.

Tomcc said...

Republicans?! in Madison?!

Howard said...

I'm in hazmat cleanup. They are a must for cutting up hot peppers. I learned the hard way by not using the gloves and then taking a piss.

Joanne Jacobs said...

In my neighborhood, people are very courteous about moving out of the way so others can pass at six feet or more. Yesterday, I started on a path, saw two older people coming toward me and turned around and walked a few minutes in the wrong direction to an area where they could pass safely. They said, "Thank you." I waited for the family group behind them to get past. Not a big deal.

eddie willers said...

I used the word fartlek on purpose because it always makes me laugh!

Neal Boortz (radio guy in Atlanta who was "Arnold Palmer" to Rush Limbaugh's "Jack Nicklaus") use to get his phone bank to light up when he would complain about women farding in their cars on the way to work.

320Busdriver said...

Apparently, most of the really ill covids are diabetic or pre diabetic or have high BMI’s, like over 30.

Us Americans are, for a large part, unhealthy as f@#$. Now that shitty diet will maybe kill you faster than you thought possible.

Francisco D said...

Howard said: I'm in hazmat cleanup. They are a must for cutting up hot peppers. I learned the hard way by not using the gloves and then taking a piss.

I suppose that is a good use if you forget to wash your hands after cutting Jalapeños, Serranos and Anaheims. I work with peppers every week for my world famous chili. I always remember to wash my hands because of an incident about 10 years ago.

I was dating this very hot woman (both of us in our 50's) and she came to my condo to make gazpacho. The food was a hit and the wine was terrific. Later that night we were engaging in foreplay when she asked me in a somewhat pointed manner, "Did you wash your hands before coming to bed?"

The rest of the night was a bust.

Tomcc said...

320Busdriver: in my area (western OR), a 95 yo recently recovered from Covid-19. He was interviewed for the news and the guy looks great! He spoke more clearly than Biden, although he does look older.
Purely anecdotal but my point is- he's thin.

Fernandinande said...

I used the word fartlek on purpose because it always makes me laugh!

I had "Paavo" and "Nurmi" written on the tops of my running shoes back in the 70s, but he was Finnish, which is better than Swedish. Thanks partly to Paavo, during my draft physical my heart went from 45 to 44 BPM after the stair-step test - the guy said "We don't see that very often!"

Sebastian said...

@CS: "I think, Sebastian, that it’s a misconception that the young don’t get sick. For kids, yes, it’s rare and probably only those with serious heart issues are vulnerable. But a size able number of young and especially middle aged adults are going to end up in ICUs on ventilators. They generally will survive but that doesn’t mean it can be taken lightly."

Not sizable enough to crash ICU units, and not severe enough to make them die. Only a small portion "get sick," an even smaller portion needs hospitalization. So far all indications are that Wuhan is not as dangerous to young people as regular flu -- and we don't shut down to save one young life.

The point stands: for younger people, the prohibition on "congregating" does not prevent "catastrophic loss." We are imposing on them mainly to save old, sick people and to keep old, sick people from overwhelming the ICUs. We can do that at much lower cost. First and foremost, by isolating those old, sick people for real.

CStanley said...

Not sizable enough to crash ICU units,

20-25% of NYC hospitalized are under 50. If that population of people were congregating, there would be a much larger number of them and they could, in fact, overwhelm hospital capacity even if older people weren’t taking up as many beds. It also wouldn't be the case that we’d be able to protect the older population anyway since there’s already been so much spread.

It’s not yet known what the long term effects might be either, so all the young people who don’t understand that this can cause severe illness for them are risking chronic health impairment. It’s simply not true that this disease is less dangerous to young people than is the flu. When’s the last time you heard of a person under 50 needing a ventilator to get over the flu? That doesn’t happen with all or even most with Covid but it’s happening to hundreds and likely thousands of younger people before this is all over, and that’s with all the restrictions in place.

The picture I’m getting is that there’s a huge variability in the morbidity and mortality among different individuals. Mortality is closely linked to age and underlying conditions, but the morbidity isn’t following that clear pattern. Maybe it’s individual variability in immunity (if there’s perhaps some cross protection from other corona viruses), or maybe it’s related to the degree of viral load of exposure, or maybe it’s something else (I read a paper that looked at ACE2 receptor expression which is influenced by genetics and some environmental factors.)

But given how serious the illness is in some of the younger people and given the number that would be infected if not isolating, it would still be a public health catastrophe.

PresbyPoet said...

I figure 6 feet is a minimum. This means that you should try to keep a larger distance if possible. We try for 12 feet outdoors. Then we are more alert to people coming towards us.

If you think of a person coming toward you as death walking, it changes your perspective. With this virus being infectious prior to symptoms, they may be. You do not know how paranoid you should be.

We walk in the early morning in a local city park with broad walkways. I carry a cane. 6 feet is one foot beyond where I can reach with the 3 foot cane. Most people are polite. We see the same people, so there is a social connection. I am more worried about goose poop buildup creating a health hazard, because of city workers don't clean up as frequently.

Regarding us old folks just staying home and dying, it is vital to keep moving, and getting Vitamin D from the sun. Inactivity is likely a greater health hazard than the virus, for a healthy 70 year old.

Regarding the danger of this virus. We have not done a broad test of the populous. Iceland has tested a broad sample, they show 50% who test positive, have no symptoms. This is good news. It means the death rate is much lower.

This is bad news. It means that it is impossible to stop the virus until we reach herd level immunity. Rest homes will be places of death. Confined spaces and concentrated at risk populations are a set up for death.

San Francisco has had a lower level of problems than would be indicated by dense housing (18,834 people per square mile, almost as high as New York's 27,760). It has a large Chinese population, and thousands who attended a February Chinese new year parade. They likely face a rest home disaster. Laguna Honda, the city run rest home had many staff test positive. There are 750 rest home residents.

Howard said...

It's a funny story Francisco. I am not susceptible to poison oak but my wife is very sensitive to it yes. One weekend when I was doing a lot of geologic mapping and belly crawl through a bunch of poison oak. The story pretty much ends the same as yours although I'm still married to her God knows how

Howard said...

My rule now is 20 yards and I warn myself and I don't like to get inside 15 yards nevertheless. My walk at the state park today was mostly bushwhacking to avoid people. When I did need to keep distance I warned the other person that I wasn't sure if I was infected or not and didn't want to pass anything on to them... that gets people to back away pretty quickly.

Derve Swanson said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Lanterlu said...

As a fun experiment, you could walk along whilst ringing a bell and intone 'unclean' as you pass by people.

Sebastian said...

"It’s simply not true that this disease is less dangerous to young people than is the flu"

How many kids have died from Wuhan vs. annually from flu?

Not trying to score debating points here, but my understanding is 0 kids for Wuhan. By contrast, the CDC reports:

"CDC estimates that since 2010, flu-related hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years old have ranged from 7,000 to 26,000 in the United States.

While relatively rare, some children die from flu each year. Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 187 deaths. Even though the reported number of deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season was 187, CDC’s mathematical models that account for the underreporting of flu-related deaths in children estimate the actual number was closer to 600."

600!

Required field must not be blank said...

Tomcc:

Look here: https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/05/29/what-happens-when-a-person-with-prediabetes-get-a-viral-infection-new-study-provides-in-depth-look/

so, it might not be the fat itself, but the fact that fat people often have insulin issues.

That said, if you are worried about viral infections and you are fat, learn how to fast. It'll go a long way towards fixing insulin resistance --- just stay off grub for 16-18 hours a day. Easy enough and it saves an amazing amount of time and effort, all this cooking, washing up eating all the time is hard work.

320Busdriver said...

Purely anecdotal, but Dr Stephen Smith, who has been appearing almost nightly on Laura Ingrahams program, indicated that of the 80 covids he’s treating, 20 required ventilation. Of the 20, 18 were diabetic, and 2 were pre diabetic. Younger folks who had severe illness were nearly all obese with BMI over 30..

Rabel said...

Meade, read between the lines for Heaven's sake. Your woman is prompting you, in her own unique way, to buy her a Peloton.

If you don't get her off the street soon you're gonna end up downtown bailing her out on an assault charge.

Mary said...

I say fake news. I walk everyday and have never seen a runner move out of the way for a walker. Same goes for cyclists...they'd run you over first.

320Busdriver said...

Purely anecdotal, but Dr Stephen Smith, who has been appearing almost nightly on Laura Ingrahams program, indicated that of the 80 covids he’s treating, 20 required ventilation. Of the 20, 18 were diabetic, and 2 were pre diabetic. Younger folks who had severe illness were nearly all obese with BMI over 30..

Earnest Prole said...

I'm as coronavirus-respecting a person as anyone, and understand and support the current guidelines, but to put your mind at ease: No one is going to contract the virus by running past a carrier at a distance closer than six feet. It's not a magic bug that defies previously understood laws of physics.

FullMoon said...

The fact they were walking close to each other suggests The man and woman were either ignorant of the six foot suggestion, or do not believe it.

Electrical engineer in neighborhood was astonished at paucity of product available and volume of shoppers at supermarket last week. He had absolutely no clue about the virus situation at all.

FullMoon said...

While on subject of clueless in public, how about people in the supermarket who park their cart in middle of aisle while deciding which cereal or loaf of bread to buy?

FullMoon said...

As a fun experiment, you could walk along whilst ringing a bell and intone 'unclean' as you pass by people.

Some of those people now rich techies in Silicon Valley. Seem to be born with higher math abilities..

CStanley said...

@ Sebastian
Sadly I think there have now been a couple of nfant deaths from Covid-19 but it is a fair enough point that some flu strains have seemingly taken a higher toll in children. To clarify when I was discussing younger people I meant adults who are under 50 but again I’m not arguing your point about kids.

Ralph L said...

When I was walking before dinner, some woman on her stoop told me to get a mask. I ignored her and then thought of snippy things to say.

Walter S. said...

Let's see: Your theory is that a few dozen quick passing encounters at 73 inches each are all in a day's fun, and are even a sign of virtue in that you're keeping up your exercise program. But a random mix of quick passings at distances of, say, three to ten feet, would be dangerous to all concerned.

Another theory, implicitly held by many of your commenters, is that there is no sharp divide between, say, 73 inches and 71 inches, and that anyone willing to share a trail ought to be fine with a few quick three-or-four foot passings. Maybe your theory is better; maybe theirs is. Both theories are just approximations to reality.

People of all theories and conditions need to share the path. How can they do that? Not gracious compromise, apparently. Your answer is that people who don't go out of their way to follow your exact rule are dangerous assholes.

I wonder what they think of you.

Meade said...

"Meade, read between the lines for Heaven's sake. Your woman is prompting you, in her own unique way, to buy her a Peloton."

She really would look great on a Peloton. But I just bought her a new roof. Maybe she'll learn to run laps around the house.

Bunkypotatohead said...

Those annoying jerks on the path are your fellow Democrats.
Church going Republicans don't behave like that.

FullMoon said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ken in tx said...

I walk my dog every morning in the dark between 5 and 6. Some days, I see no one. This is in a city residential neighborhood, with sidewalks and regular blocks. Sometimes there are plenty of others, other dog walkers, walker/talkers, joggers, cyclists, and deer up from the arroyos. Even before the virus, most people stayed about two arms lengths away from anyone else. However, there are two types I call ninjas and zombies. Ninjas wear dark clothing and jog up silently behind me and pass closely without warning. Zombies plod or jog straight ahead without acknowledging anyone else. I give them plenty of room. I always speak but I don't always get a reply. I always carry a 6ft hiking stick in case I need it.

Doug said...

You're running on a 10-foot wide path, ahead of you are 3 men, walking 3 abreast, and spread out so that there's no way to pass them with 6 feet of separation.
What do you do?


Turn around, go home, write a blog post about how the Patriarchy is making wymyn feel threatened. Men bad!

Nichevo said...

And the man, with a completely supercilious look on his face and his hands at eye level and wiggling his fingers in a brushing-me-back gesture, says: "Move along."


Would you have preferred "Shelter in place, grandma?"

Kevin said...

The fine folks at 538 have been working out the options mathematically -- with animations!

Solution to last week’s Riddler Express
Congratulations to 👏 Pat Walsh 👏 of Prospect Park, Pennsylvania, winner of last week’s Riddler Express.

Last week, you were walking along the middle of a wide sidewalk when you saw someone walking toward you from the other direction, also down the middle of the sidewalk, 12 feet away. Being responsible citizens, you passed each other while maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet at all times. By the time you reached each other’s original positions, you were back in the middle of the sidewalk again. You were asked to assume that the other person followed the same path you did, but flipped around (since they were walking in the opposite direction).

You wanted to know the shortest distance you and the other person could walk so that you could switch positions, all while staying at least 6 feet apart at all times. What was this distance? (Note: Although the problem didn’t explicitly say it, the following solutions all assume that you and your counterpart were always walking at the same speed.)

Many solvers thought the optimal path was a rhombus whose diagonals had lengths of 12 feet and 6 feet, as shown below:


But no, scroll down to see the correct answer, which changes when the other person doesn't cooperate.

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