April 3, 2020

"Virus experts know that viral dose affects illness severity. In the lab, mice receiving a low dose of virus clear it and recover..."

"... while the same virus at a higher dose kills them. Dose sensitivity has been observed for every common acute viral infection that has been studied in lab animals, including coronaviruses. Humans also exhibit sensitivity to viral dose. Volunteers have allowed themselves to be exposed to low or high doses of relatively benign viruses causing colds or diarrhea. Those receiving the low doses have rarely developed visible signs of infection, while high doses have typically led to infections and more severe symptoms.... Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future.... People should take particular care against high-dose exposures... such as coffee meetings, crowded bars and quiet time in a room with Grandma — and from touching our faces after getting substantial amounts of virus on our hands. In-person interactions are more dangerous in enclosed spaces and at short distances, with dose escalating with exposure time. For transient interactions that violate the rule of maintaining six feet between you and others, such as paying a cashier at the grocery store, keep them brief — aim for 'within six feet, only six seconds.'... [W]e need to avoid a panicked overreaction to low-dose exposures. Clothing and food packaging that have been exposed to someone with the virus seem to present a low risk..... When we do begin to leave our homes again, let’s do it wisely, in light of the importance of viral dose."

From "These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous/As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts" (NYT). The article is by Joshua D. Rabinowitz, a professor of chemistry and genomics at Princeton, and Caroline R. Bartman, a research fellow. The comments function is turned off over there.

I'd like to see some serious commentary on this. It's very encouraging, but perhaps too encouraging. It's good for handling panic and anxiety, if that's your problem. I guess we're all sort of doing what we're told and sort of following our own interpretation.

Today's the day the Trump team is going to make a recommendation about wearing masks. I have not seen any people in masks in my city, and I'm skeptical about the great masking of America. I don't look forward to living around people who will look askance at those who go out unmasked. But then I look askance at people who don't show they care by observing a 6-foot clearance when they pass me by. I mean, I don't actually look askance. I just think askance. And blog askance.

197 comments:

Ann Althouse said...

I looked up "askance" in the OED. It means looking out of the corner of your eye. That's the literal meaning. But it's figurative too, meaning "With an expression or attitude of contempt, disapproval, or (now more usually) suspicion."

Here's how Shakespeare used it:

a1616 W. Shakespeare Taming of Shrew (1623) ii. i. 242 Thou canst not frowne, thou canst not looke a sconce.

Love the old-time spelling!

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

"Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future...."

so we all need a nice low dose.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

It rings true as far as why some people experience mild symptoms, some moderate, some severe.
I guess.

tcrosse said...

Most men have heard the phrase, "Turn your head and cough"

rcocean said...

Masks seem to be a way out of this morass. We can go back to work - only with masks. It seems to be working in Korea and Japan. Wearing a mask somehow seems Unamerican but then shutting down the economy over a flu is Unamerican and has never been done before, even in 1918.

Nonapod said...

It all makes sense when you think about it. Basically, viruses have a limited amount of time to produce as many copies as possible before the hosts immune system developes the proper antibodies. If the virus starts out with more copies of itself obviously it'll be able to infect more of the hosts cells and produce more copies before the host is able to produce antibody counter measures. This results in a worse infection with worse symptoms.

Jamie said...

Lots of masked people in Katy, TX. We have, in our area, a significant population of expats from all over; if I had to guess, the mask-wearing started among Asian nationals and came next to other non-American residents, and I'm now seeing it more among the native Texans. It's far from universal, but it seems to be trending up fairly steeply.

tim in vermont said...

There is a video on Twitter going around of a Chinese lady systematically touching surfaces in a big box story in California. Maybe she is providing immunity? I guess time will tell.

But sure, if you start with a million copies of a virus, and they start growing, vs you start with a hundred, all of that time it takes the virus to get from a hundred to a million copies is time your immune system has to marshal a response in one case, and is. denied in the other case.

It’s the same idea as a travel ban. If you get a hundred cases and stop it, that’s way ahead on the curve than if you keep letting cases arrive, which is like multiplying the growth of the pandemic and robbing you of time to stop it. Which is why Joe Biden has proven himself to be incompetent on that issue, as did Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.

Art in LA said...

Yesterday at our suburban LA Costco, I bet about 1/3 to 1/2 of the people there were wearing masks. A surreal sight. Stay safe, folks!

robother said...

My daughter got some sconces in her place a few years ago. They've always creeped me out, I can feel them judging me.

Kevin said...

I have not seen any people in masks in my city, and I'm skeptical about the great masking of America.

If we don't have enough masks for our first responders, how can we spare them for everyone who needs to leave their house?

The reason some can mask up is because others don't.

Michael said...

Sola dosis facit venenum.

Deliver us from the heedless and foolish among us, and also from the mini-Mussolinis who only want to tell everyone else how to live.

Howard said...

This is why avoidance and PPE works. From early days they were talking about the dose response to C-19 causing the Cascade deep into the lungs. Existing inflammation provides a rich bed for it to settle in. The primary cause of inflammation is obesity. It is one of the several pathologies associated with metabolic disorder. The other primary of course are diabetes and heart disease. I think cancer is in there too

Howard said...

You need to make your own masks for yourselves and your families.

narciso said...

a covid molecule is one micron, so how many can you have in one droplet or a spray of them?

SteveBrooklineMA said...

Originally, inoculation was done by giving a person a tiny viral dose.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variolation

Michael The Magnificent said...

Senator Ron Johnson posted a video put out from a NY doctor handling COVID-9 cases, and he said much the same, that he used to be afraid of catching it, but now that he knows how it spreads and how to limit his exposure, he is feeling much more confident.

You need enough of a viral load for the virus to overcome your immune system to take hold and make you sick. Touching someone who has it, and then touching your eyes or your nose will make you sick. Being in an enclosed space with someone who has it for a long enough period of time will make you sick.

Being old, or sick, or immuno-compromised lowers the viral load threshold that will make you sick.

The doctor also said he isn't afraid to touch elevator buttons or door knobs because he applies Purell to his hands right after. Great, if you can find Purell.

The local Meijers and Target both have their inventories off. While the databases driving their websites think they still have Purell, Clorox Wipes, and Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) in stock, there isn't any on their shelves. And with things as they are, they haven't been doing an inventory often enough to correct their databases. I did manage to score a small bottle of 91% IPA at the local Pick-n-Save the other day.

JAORE said...

The masks we are likely to wear, including scarves, will do more to keep you from infecting others than you from getting infected.

But there is a message being missed here,I think. If you cut off all contact by sheltering in place you may not get low dosage exposure and thus not develop any antibodies.

You come out from your hibernation into a world where some people are still carrying the virus but with low to no symptoms. Now you are the most vulnerable...

Limited blogger said...

I'm in 'upstate' NY. 60 miles from NYC. Very close to a 'hotspot' - one of the religious enclaves that have been severely affected/infected.

I went shopping yesterday and more than half the shoppers were wearing masks.

I had a red bandana over my nose and mouth. Useless against the virus I'm sure, but it reminded me not to touch my face.

Psota said...

I would definitely agree that people entering closed areas like stores, offices buildings, etc. should wear some sort of covering.

My wife and I both had the experience of walking out of our local (very nice) grocery store feeling like our bodies had absorbed...something. But once we started wearing masks in the store, that went away. It does make a difference.

But a requirement that people walking around outside also have masks is too much. Plus, it's a waste of the mask. Those paper surgical masks are only good for a few hours. Better to save the masks for shopping, work, commuting, etc.

Automatic_Wing said...

It seems to me that masking up is much preferable to being on lockdown indefinitely.

I would say this is better than this.

Nichevo said...

Ann Althouse said...
I looked up "askance" in the OED. It means looking out of the corner of your eye. That's the literal meaning. But it's figurative too, meaning "With an expression or attitude of contempt, disapproval, or (now more usually) suspicion."



The kids call it side-eye now.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

Mask up America. Our grandmothers would have had the mask shortage problem solved by now.

h said...

A PhD and Prof of animal science sent me the link to this article with an endorsement of the scientific validity. Exposure to even one drop or molecule is enough to transmit the virus (as I -- nonscientist-- understand); but it is the severity of the resulting disease that is correlated with length of exposure. I take comfort in the fact that potential exposures are from very brief encounters (passing a person on the bike path or grocery aisle). You do not want to be on a plane or subway car, or at a choir practice, and if someone in your household has the virus, I imagine it would be very difficult to avoid lengthy and prolonged contact.

Temujin said...

Burkas soon to be fashionable in North America.

BillieBob Thorton said...

I thought one of the purposes for wearing a mask was to prevent you from touching your face, nose, mouth.
I'll be wearing a mask and gloves and glasses the next I go to the local grocery.

Kai Akker said...

This is very good to know. You had to suspect something like this, to explain how healthy younger doctors like Li Wenliang were dying when everyone kept saying only-the-old-and-sick.

MikeR said...

I don't think it ever made sense to imagine that one could cut exposure to zero. That was never going to be possible. I have this same reaction when people tell me I'm supposed to be washing surfaces frequently inside my house: that was never going to work. I hope the people in a house don't get the virus, because if they do everyone in the house is probably going to get it. Aside from that, wash your hands well whenever you come back from outside or receive something from outside, and your exposure should be low.
I don't know if all that's right, but all that's what's possible.

tim in vermont said...

"I had a red bandana over my nose and mouth.”

Now that’s American! Stick ‘em up, pardner!"

Ray - SoCal said...


https://masks4all.co/ has lots of good links and information, including from the NY Times, Washington Post, Wired, CNN, etc..

Czech Republic seems to have stopped their increase by requiring the use of masks. Home made masks work fine, so it's not an issue of not giving to first responders.

Interesting that 3M was still exporting masks, and Trump stopped it yesterday. One of the first moves Taiwan did was stop the export of masks. Then do a massive retooling to make sure everyone had masks, including schools. And they have not had to shut down their country and economy, like the US has.

The US now has a negative feeling on wearing masks. The so called experts downplayed wearing masks, due to shortages.

Jersey Fled said...

If face coverings are so effective, why does Iran have so many cases?

TreeJoe said...

So much of the media is focused on Trump's response to this pandemic.

Our primary health organizations: WHO, CDC, and FDA (in order of relevance to pandemic response) have been absolutely abysmal in this entire thing as an organization. They have categorically reversed themselves on so many major announcements including now whether or not healthy folks should be wearing masks out of public.

At this point Trump is one of the only global politicians I've seen who have taken firm, sometimes controversial stands early and has consistently looked like he made the right call.

Many others are trying to revise history when they are not in the executives chair. Including the CDC and WHO.

Which brings us back to advising people to wear masks

pacwest said...

I would think Trump would have some strong words for 3M today.

Limited blogger said...

No one looked askance at my bandana covered face!

Original Mike said...

We went grocery shopping for the first time since the current unpleasantness started. Wore mask and gloves, as did most of the other shoppers. Uneventful. There was one striking behavior. There were a few people, all women of a certain age, who were unwilling to pass people in the aisles, no matter how briefly. It made for some difficult maneuvers.

We got most of what we set out for, except yeast. Went to two places to no avail.

Ralph L said...

On this chart of outcomes with other ailments, it's weird that former smokers have a worse outcome than current smokers (that is, only the smokers WITHOUT other ailments--hardy folk). Kidney people are SOL.

Nonapod said...

As for the mask thing, of course they're effective. Good luck finding any if you don't already have some though.

Biotrekker said...

The media and the experts seem to have once again let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Also, we have once again forgotten what we once knew, as Douglas Murray would say.

Masks work. When we are told that they don't, what is meant is that they are not 100% effective, or that we really need them for HC workers so we are lying to you. But any reduction in the dose received - the inoculum - is positive.

Gloves and/or hand cleaning works.

Dose matters

Being in a crowded, enclosed space is much worse than being outside.

Original Mike said...

I'm willing to wear a mask while in enclosed spaces for the duration of the epidemic, but damn those things are uncomfortable. I had to wear them sometimes at work (cath lab) and I hate them with a passion.

Sebastian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sebastian said...

"quiet time in a room with Grandma"

Grandma shouldn't be in the same room. It's called quarantine.

"But then I look askance at people who don't show they care by observing a 6-foot clearance when they pass me by"

But then I look askance at seniors who break quarantine and then complain about being close to healthy young people, who already are sacrificing for others and will be expected to rebuild society and repay the trillions spent.

Question for the "experts": what is the risk of transmission to Althouse of passing asymptomatic men, out in the open, at about 3 feet for about 3 seconds (say)?

Paul said...

"Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future...."

OMG... so are we talking vaccines? Shocking! Who knew!

Browndog said...

1. Mandatory mask use must come from the States.

2. Big problem: They already told everyone for a month that you only need one if you're sick. People won't believe them, and people that do wear masks are getting yelled at, beaten up sometimes for being out in public while sick.

3. We don't have masks.

Browndog said...

Under what criteria do the masks come off?

Jeff said...

What you're describing is an old technique. The first smallpox vaccine, in the late 17th-century, involved making a small wound on your arm or leg, then taking smallpox pus from an infected person's pustule and smearing a small amount of it into your wound. You would, of course, get smallpox, but usually a minor case that would leave you immune. (The much less dicey cowpox vaccine came a century later.) The other drawback, obviously, was that you needed an infected person to get the pus from, meaning that the plague had already started. (I'm not a historian of medicine, just reading a book about the American Revolution, Rick Atkinson's "The British are Coming," and there was a part about American soldiers inoculating themselves.)

Kate said...

Went to Kroger's yesterday and was struck by the change. People are more on edge. Many masks, including on the clerk at the self-check aisle. Plexiglass installed between the checker and the customer. Stickers on the ground marking the proper distance that say "Please wait here." As I stood on one the masked guy checking out ahead of me told me to back off. (Six feet isn't enough for some, apparently.) The whole thing is starting to feel very surreal.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Besides the fact that unless you have certified medical masks you are not protected or safe for others either.

AAAND if you can't get any masks in the area where you live?

The health clinic where we go...yes there is ONLY ONE in our area within 40 miles...has no masks in the lobby because people were stealing them and now they only have enough for themselves and maybe a patient or two who is showing symptoms. Masks are on backorder for them as medical professionals.... and they are almost out of stock.

NO MASKS AVAILABLE. If anyone thinks that I'm gonna sit in my house and starve to death because there are no masks, they are delusional. I may be able to put a scarf on my face....or better yet wear my chemical spray perpetrator protection mask. The filters are shot....need to order replacements...but if it makes people feel better /shrug

What a joke. If I lived in a big city, YES, I would be diligent about wearing a mask.

I went to get gas in a couple of our vehicles yesterday at the cardlock supplier that we belong to. No one was there other than a hay truck at the diesel pumps. A mask is not going to to anything. There are no people to interact with...zero...none. (I do use gloves when using the pump, card machine etc. But then I have always done that. Have you seen the hands of farmers, cattle ranchers and truck drivers 😁)

narciso said...

that is the essence of inoculation isn't it, a large enough cohort has to be inoculated for work,

Michael K said...

Being in a crowded, enclosed space is much worse than being outside.

I understand that sheriff's deputies arrested a paddleboarder off an Orange County beach this week. He was a mile from anyone else.

Glad I left California.

Lurker21 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dust Bunny Queen said...

aaack. That is chemical spray respirator mask. Not perpetrator.

pacwest said...

it's weird that former smokers have a worse outcome than current smokers

There are probably a lot more former smokers than current smokers out there. Any statistic that doesnt use percentages is pretty much useless for making statements like that. And why are worldwide numbers that include China info even shown? Meaningless.

Inga said...

“We got most of what we set out for, except yeast. Went to two places to no avail.

Making yeast at home:
100 ml beer (approx. 4 oz.)
1 tsp. sugar
1Tbsp. flour
Stir ingredients together to blend and leave out overnight at room temperature.
The amount will equal a 50 gm (1.76 oz.) cube of fresh yeast.

As for masks, as I’ve been saying endlessly, make your own. If you’re not a sewist, there are videos of making them out of a bandana and two ponytail elastics. The mask may not be enough to keep you from inhaling or exhaling some virus laden particles, but maybe it does keep the virus dose low. Maybe it’ll keep one from touching their face, who knows, but I don’t think it will hurt to wear a mask.

Lurker21 said...

That should be interesting for the "herd immunity" people. Assuming healthy people are going to stores to buy essentials, they may get low doses of the illness that will give them some immunity. If we were all going out everyday as usual, the chances of getting high doses of the virus will be much greater. So I wouldn't automatically assume that the stay at home orders mean that no one isn't being exposed or acquiring an immunity. Of course, that doesn't apply to the very strictest lockdown orders.

MD Greene said...

It took them a while, but our vaunted public health experts seem to have decided that, just maybe, covering the mouth and nose could limit the spread of a virus that infects the lungs. Shocking.
https://theidiosyncratist.blogspot.com/2020/04/face-masks.html

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

To see a helpful article from the NYT warms my soul. The low-dose response seems to match anecdotal data about 80% of people exposed being asymptomatic. Regarding face coverings if any type being recommended as CA did today, consider this: if we ALL have muse & mouth covered AND we distance and hand wash as before, how would the virus transmit?

Automatic_Wing said...

1. Mandatory mask use must come from the States.

No, that's not the case. In Japan, mask wearing is a social obligation rather than a state enforced diktat. No cop is going to come up and arrest you for not wearing a mask. Nevertheless, people wear them.

2. Big problem: They already told everyone for a month that you only need one if you're sick. People won't believe them, and people that do wear masks are getting yelled at, beaten up sometimes for being out in public while sick.

The authorities' previous lies to us about the efficacy of masks is a problem, but not one that can't be overcome. The first step is to get the correct information out there and retract all that nonsense they put out about masks not working.



3. We don't have masks

Medical grade masks are not really necessary. The masks that people walk around in in Japan, Taiwan, etc are really just a piece of cloth or gauze that covers you nose and mouth. You can make them yourself, plenty of videos on YouTube showing how it's done.

Original Mike said...

"Making yeast at home: ...100 ml beer (approx. 4 oz.)"

Does it matter what kind of beer? We only have hoppy pale ales, though we are well stocked on those :)

mockturtle said...

I don't look forward to living around people who will look askance at those who go out unmasked.

I haven't noticed this. What I see is people looking askance at those wearing masks. That will change, of course.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Yes we can make our own masks...and they may provide a bit of help in keeping people from spewing bodily fluids on you. May. Mostly not though since the filtering micron levels needed to be effective are not available in fabric.

The only reason for masks is to make everyone feel better. Like kissing the 'owie' on a child's knee. Panacea. Magic bullet. False sense of security.

In the right circumstances, like a crowded building, closed room, grocery store, DOCTOR'S office, places where you are in contact with others..... it would be the reasonable, polite and prudent thing to do.

Walking alone or with your spouse on a woodland trail. Driving in your own car. Mowing the grass in your yard. Sitting on your patio or deck. Paddle boarding alone on the open ocean!!! Stupid.

The wanna be tin pot dictators and covid nazis who are drooling to be able to control every aspect of our lives are eventually going to find out that there are limits to the amount of freedom reasonable people are going be willing to give up. Push too hard and the push back is going to be inevitable.

Ken B said...

This is, in essence, variolation. I posted a couple of links about it here. MarginalRevolution.com has a few links.

I think we need a careful study of this, fast. We should pay healthy volunteers to get a low dosage. Then isolate them and give them treatment. You will get volunteers, especially if the payment is generous. (Logically the denialists here should volunteer to get what they call a mild flu nothing burger, but I don’t expect any to do so.)

We should have a large enough cohort that we can simultaneously test a few treatments with the variolation. Does chloroquine with variolation build immunity more safely than variolation alone?

It’s important no one try this at home!

mockturtle said...

I wore a mask and gloves when I had to run a few errands yesterday and noticed a few more people masking up than last week. My plan is to stay home for the entire rest of the month. It will be a challenge to see if I can make do on supplies on hand [I haven't been hoarding]. I know I'll run out of eggs so I'm going to have to skip my 'two eggs' breakfasts for now.

Inga said...

“Does it matter what kind of beer? We only have hoppy pale ales, though we are well stocked on those :)”

I doubt it matters, isn’t beer a product of fermentation? That would mean that you have the correct bacteria there ready, I presume. So feed your little half cup of beer some flour and sugar and it’ll happily produce useable yeast for you.

Achilles said...

"Today's the day the Trump team is going to make a recommendation about wearing masks. I have not seen any people in masks in my city, and I'm skeptical about the great masking of America. I don't look forward to living around people who will look askance at those who go out unmasked. But then I look askance at people who don't show they care by observing a 6-foot clearance when they pass me by. I mean, I don't actually look askance. I just think askance. And blog askance."


You don't look forward to having people judge you for not wearing a mask.

But you demand that we shut the economy down, destroy thousands of small businesses, and give local governments complete control over our lives.

For fucks sake.

This country does not deserve it's freedom.

You people do not think at all.

chuck said...

I saw two people wearing masks at Walmart last Sunday. This is in a low risk area of Utah. I'm curious as to what the LDS church might be recommending, I'm not a member.

Ken B said...

“Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future...."
OMG... so are we talking vaccines? Shocking! Who knew!

———-

No we are not. Vaccination and variolation are different. If we had vaccines we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

Meade said...

"(Logically the denialists here should volunteer to get what they call a mild flu nothing burger, but I don’t expect any to do so.) "

I think it was Pants who said she'll be "delighted" to be infected.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Masks..... If you’re not a sewist, there are videos of making them out of a bandana and two ponytail elastics.

But but but...if you don't have elastics, you have to go to the store without a mask to buy the supplies to make the mask. The mask that you should have had on to go to the store but didn't because the materials are at the store which requires that you wear a mask that you haven't made yet because you don't have a mask.

It is Catch 22. An endless loop of impossibility.

:=D

Achilles said...

Michael K said...
Being in a crowded, enclosed space is much worse than being outside.

I understand that sheriff's deputies arrested a paddleboarder off an Orange County beach this week. He was a mile from anyone else.


These people think all of this has to do with a virus.

Achilles said...

"[W]e need to avoid a panicked overreaction to low-dose exposures. Clothing and food packaging that have been exposed to someone with the virus seem to present a low risk..... When we do begin to leave our homes again, let’s do it wisely, in light of the importance of viral dose."

These are things we have been talking about from the start. We have people around who know all of this. The virus is widespread. The only way out of this is herd immunity.

But for some reason we listen to the scientists that recommend shutting everything down and destroying the economy. Now we have golf courses of all things shut down.

Achilles said...

Meade said...
"(Logically the denialists here should volunteer to get what they call a mild flu nothing burger, but I don’t expect any to do so.) "

I think it was Pants who said she'll be "delighted" to be infected.

I have had my wife asking at work if there are any immunization studies I could be a part of.

It makes sense if you actually want to deal with the virus.

But you and Ken just want to attack people who disagree with you.

Original Mike said...

Thanks, Inga. We'll give it a try. Sounds like fun.

Original Mike said...

"I don't look forward to living around people who will look askance at those who go out unmasked."

Something I learned on my grocery store visit today; you can't smile at people when you're wearing a mask.

Blue@9 said...

Who the fuck cares if Ann looks at you funny?

Wear a mask!

The fact of risk mitigation is stark and right in our faces, but "oh no, do I want to live in a mask culture?" Wtf. Look at the fuckin asymmetry here:

Risk from not wearing mask: Get COVID and die.
Risk from wearing mask: Ann doesn't like it.

Have people lost their ability to think? People are trapped in idiotic scientism. If you're somewhere, anywhere, and guy a few feet away coughs, would you rather have a mask or no mask?

DKWalser said...

My wife has been making cotton masks for the local hospitals. Each of us now has our own. I wore mine on a brief trip to the hardware store yesterday. No one gave me a weird look. If anything, they seemed to appreciate my wearing a mask.

It's a different time.

tcrosse said...

This morning in the NW part of Las Vegas plenty of folks out for a walk in the sunshine and fresh air. Only a few masks, although one woman did something quite chic with a scarf.

Blue@9 said...

Yes we can make our own masks...and they may provide a bit of help in keeping people from spewing bodily fluids on you. May. Mostly not though since the filtering micron levels needed to be effective are not available in fabric.

The only reason for masks is to make everyone feel better. Like kissing the 'owie' on a child's knee. Panacea. Magic bullet. False sense of security.


Tripe. The virus is tiny, but it's carried by respiratory droplets. Will some sort of physical barrier, even porous fabric, absorb those droplets? Yes. The point is to reduce exposure. Why do all you galaxy brains think that something is useless if it's not 100% effective. Do you realize that a seatbelt won't save you in 100% of accidents? Shit, dude, must be a placebo to instill a false sense of security!

Ken B said...

meade
Delighted but offended too.
I do look forward to the daily bulletins of her progress.

Ralph L said...

This is in a low risk area of Utah

Utah's #deaths/confirmed cases (7/1074) is the lowest of any state but Hawaii's.

There are still a few counties in NC with no confirmed cases.

mockturtle said...

Achilles, your bitterness might be a greater threat to your health than any virus. I am praying for you every day.

Yancey Ward said...

Meade needs to look into house-sized masks.

walter said...

Well, that would certainly lend a different vibe to the daily task force updates.

Ken B said...

Inga
Interesting yeast tip.
Finally a use for all that beer in the basement.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Masks/bandanas/misused underwear DO reduce wearer’s ability to project sneezes/coughs AND reduce opportunity for face touching. If 100% of people in public wore masks or improvised some kind of covering (please stop making this sound impossible) AND we all do sensible distancing combined with hand-washing the transmission approaches zero. I love that term from calculus, because it will always be approaching zero after the apex, but if course never reach zero.

Nichevo said...

I did manage to score a small bottle of 91% IPA at the local Pick-n-Save the other day.

4/3/20, 10:10 AM


MtM please note this is overstrength for sanitization, and less effective therefore. You should dilute with water, emollients, etc to, IIRC, 65-75% alcohol.




Ralph L said...
On this chart of outcomes with other ailments, it's weird that former smokers have a worse outcome than current smokers (that is, only the smokers WITHOUT other ailments--hardy folk). Kidney people are SOL.

Fascinating-so should former smokers restart? I've been thinking that with smoking comorbidity so harped on, tobacco sales must be in a tailspin.



Ken B said...

I think we need a careful study of this, fast. We should pay healthy volunteers to get a low dosage. Then isolate them and give them treatment. You will get volunteers, especially if the payment is generous.


You were great up to here. I've said that I'd like to be inoculated so that I would be safe to be around. Pay would be super, I'd do it for free. The wrinkle of doing it while receiving HCQ is doubly interesting.

At the risk of perceived cruelty, the USS Theodore Roosevelt presented the perfect opportunity for this experiment


(Logically the denialists here should volunteer to get what they call a mild flu nothing burger, but I don’t expect any to do so.)


Ah, here it is. You and:


Meade said...
"(Logically the denialists here should volunteer to get what they call a mild flu nothing burger, but I don’t expect any to do so.) "

I think it was Pants who said she'll be "delighted" to be infected.

4/3/20, 11:34 AM



Because any conversation on this topic without hostility would be a wasted opportunity, right? Let's instead model the behaviors we wish to encourage.

I'd be delighted to be inoculated with coronavirus. I'd rather not get a honking enormous dose that would be maximally dangerous, rather just enough to develop immunity, so maybe this is hypocrisy? I'd be extra super delighted to receive HCQ concurrently, though I'd wonder if this confers immunity equally.

And, my personal economy having been devastated by the crisis, being paid would be very attractive. But my chief concern is to not be a potential threat to my parents.

Nichevo said...

Inga, I have bandanas but no scrunchies. Isn't the masked-bandit/cowboy-riding-drag style of bandana wearing good enough?

Ken B said...

Btw, if viral load does matter then the distancing measures are almost certainly hugely beneficial. You get a much smaller load your first day from being a few feet from a few people briefly than being in a crowded elevator or a meeting room or a crowded bus or a packed pub.

Inga said...

“But you demand that we shut the economy down, destroy thousands of small businesses, and give local governments complete control over our lives.”

Who is this “you”? It’s amazing to hear blame being given to fellow citizens, while no mention of blame being given to the leader of the Country whose decision it is to support the closings by the Governors. Has Trump changed his mind again? Has he said we should all just go back to pre pandemic, or to just isolate the old people? How can people who support Trump not recognize that it is Trump himself who is supportive of these social distancing measures?

tim in vermont said...

Of course, ARM, you could always prove you have the imagination to counter my argument, by restating it in your own words, and then demonstrating to me through reason and evidence that it is wrong.

If you need to learn philosophy to teach in that tech school of yours, you know that asserting a negative “you lack the imagination” is a pretty tall order, proof wise. It’s more like “you won’t buy what I am selling.” What you could do is show that you don’t lack imagination by addressing my specific argument.

Besides, Trump is not really a Republican. It’s funny out of one side of your mouth you praise Chuck for sticking to “Republican principles” on the issue of Trump and out of the other you claim that Republicans don’t deserve a hearing because of 9-11 and 2008. When a woman does this, rhhardin calls it “pretzel logic,” which it is.

Bruce Hayden said...

@DBQ - I have what appears to be the 3M version of the chemical spray mask you have. I had P95 filters, but by the time I looked, the P100s were long gone. Still, I stocked up on the P95s, and will lay in a supply of P100s when they again become available. The nice thing about that type of mask is the close fit, which is the problem with most of the masks you see. Unless you tape those masks on, the air you breath comes mostly around the mask, and not through them (which is why, of course, they are more effective at protecting everyone else from you, than you from them).

Here in the W PHX suburbs, yesterday, at least, still seeing few masks or gloves (but a lot of hoarding of food, TP, etc). Social distancing though is getting enforced. Maybe change today, now that the governor’s order of hunker in place (lite) is now in effect. We shall see. We should be fine - most of our food is take out, though the Olive Garden isn’t serving their whole grain linguini these days, leaving us with the white flour stuff. The cat likes it, but neither of us really don’t.

I noticed from DBQ’s link that the type of mask she has is now restricted to healthcare workers, first responders, etc. by Amazon. They seem to be doing a lot of this. My second box of “surgical” masks supposed shipped in late February, weeks before DeBlasio put in his order. Still haven’t arrived from Amazon yet. They promise next week. We shall see. Same thing with the UV wand I ordered - though I did get the UV glasses yesterday. The UPS driver was apologetic, because they had been delivered to a neighbor, who opened up the packaging. I said fine, since it was obvious they couldn’t have screwed anything up, with a single pair of plastic glasses in a box.

Finally, the run on Purell, etc started here in late February. Couldn’t find any then, nor since. Couldn’t find the small bottles on Amazon either. But did find a 4 pack of the big dispenser bottles, that are used by sports teams and grocery stores. Maybe shouldn’t have (thus depriving some store of them), but bought them. Had to break the dispenser mechanism (designed to gravity feed), but used part of one bottle to fill up several soap dispensers (which were sold out at the local $1 stores), and put them in strategic places around the house. Use it a lot, and even refilled the little bottle that I carry with me. I don’t think that my hands have ever been this sanitary. I now well scrub with an antibacterial soap, followed by the Purell. And use it constantly when I am out.

Ken B said...

What if Ance has no answer?

LA_Bob said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tim in vermont said...

"it's weird that former smokers have a worse outcome than current smokers”

It almost makes you wonder if ex smokers skew older. Hopefully they accounted for that. Sometimes though these things get sliced up so fine that they become unreliable.

LA_Bob said...

Had to delete my comment, because the link was wrong.

Did Nancy take some hydroxycholorquine before doing this? Or was she looking for her "low-dose exposure"?

H/T Instapundit

rcocean said...

My local grocery store has added a new wrinkle. You must wipe your hands with a store provided cleanser before you enter. Plus they wipe down your cart for you. How much longer before the clerks are enclosed behind plastic shields?

rcocean said...

Another grocery store, one with low quality food IMO, always has line of people waiting to get in. Only X number are allowed at anyone point. Why people are willing to wait 15 minutes to get INSIDE a grocery store - when other different grocery store chain stores are wide open - is beyond me.

tcrosse said...

It's hard to believe that the USS Theodore Roosevelt, whose captain was just relieved of duty, is the only ship in all the world's navies with a corona virus infection on board. The accommodations for enlisted personnel do not lend themselves to social distancing.

Ken B said...

Rcocean
Some stores here have plexiglass shields. We do a lot of crazy things here. We have ambulances for people who get injured, we have epi-pens for asthmatics. We spend money on simple things that save lives.

Gospace said...

I see a few people wearing masks around and about in central NY. Until the other day, most I have seen were, umm, obese. Some severely so. Good to see them worrying about their health...

The other day I was in a Walmart closer to Rochester. A lot of people were wearing masks, a much larger percentage then I've seen in ruralville. And many of them were wearing U of R Heathcare caps and jackets, or had keys and IDs hanging on lanyards. The only people I've ever seen who have lanyards at work who didn't remove them on getting to the parking lot are healthcare workers.

Mask wearing in the U.S. is not likely to catch on. As a culture, we look each other in the eyes, we don't glance away. We judge people on facial expressions, which masks hide. Part of the equality thing. Other cultures can adapt more easily to widespread mask wearing. They're not expected to look into each other's eyes, they avert their faces from others.

Me? I wear a mask when I'm working in very dusty areas. And that's it. If I'm in a medical office and the medicos want me to wear one I'll do so. Professional courtesy. It will go off when I leave.

reader said...

Would I sign up to be a test case? In a New York minute and I’m in the age group with the highest percentage of hospitalizations in our county. I’m a mom. I would jump in front of a bullet, give up my seat on a life raft, give up my last bite of food, etc. I’m sure you get the idea. There has been some snark about individuals not caring if old people get it - that can be turned around because it seems like there are a lot of old people who don’t care about the future of our next generations. Saddled with debt and no economy. Civil liberties shot to hell.

For the people who are scared it’s all or nothing. Do what your told or we die. But...if you get it is it guaranteed death - no. If you don’t get it are you going to live forever - no. Is going to wipe out mankind - no.

So I’ll go even further. Sign me up. Monitor me. Make an effort to help me. Even put me on a ventilator. But let’s say after 10 days take me off and leave it in the Lords hands.

Positive Cases in San Diego County Since February 14, 2020
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Table updated April 2, 2020, with data through April 1, 2020.
COVID-19 Case Summary San Diego County Residents
Total Positives 966
Age Groups
0-9 years 8
10-19 years 9
20-29 years 187
30-39 years 216
40-49 years 170
50-59 years 149
60-69 years 108
70-79 years 71
80+ years 45
Age Unknown 3
Gender
Female 439
Male 514
Unknown 13
Hospitalizations 181
Intensive Care 70
Deaths 16

County of San Diego
Daily Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Hospitalizations Summary
Data are preliminary and subject to change
Data through 4/1/2020, updated 4/2/2020 8:00 AM Summary of COVID-19 Cases
that Required Hospitalization
Total Hospitalizations 181
COVID-19 Hospitalizations*
San Diego County Residents
Age Groups Count %
0-9 years 0 0.0%
10-19 years 2 1.1%
20-29 years 10 5.5%
30-39 years 23 12.7%
40-49 years 24 13.3%
50-59 years 34 18.8%
60-69 years 32 17.7%
70-79 years 27 14.9%
80+ years 29 16.0%
Age Unknown 0 0.0%
*Known hospitalizations; incomplete information is available for many cases still under investigation. Represents total number of persons hospitalized to date, not only those currently hospitalized.
Data are preliminary and subject to change.
Source: San Diego County Communicable Disease Registry
Prepared by County of San Diego, Health and Human Services Agency, Public Health Services, Epidemiology and Immunization Services Branch 1

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Iran you say. Why do you think only men are getting it there?

Gospace said...

tcrosse said...
It's hard to believe that the USS Theodore Roosevelt, whose captain was just relieved of duty, is the only ship in all the world's navies with a corona virus infection on board. The accommodations for enlisted personnel do not lend themselves to social distancing.


As I pointed out elsewhere, we have SSBNs on patrol right now with the Chinese Virus aboard. 3 to 4 SSBNs a month depart on patrol. IIRC, the first 2-3 weeks of patrol we all got what everyone else had in the way of respiratory infections. Then- nothing for the rest of the 72 day patrol. Then, we all caught what was going around when we returned...

And likely a fast attack or two on specops with the virus aboard.

The difference is- on a ship with 5000 personnel with a medical department on board, it's going to be detected. On a sub with 120 people and an independent duty corpsman, unless someone gets sick enough to need a ventilator, everyone on board will shrug it off as they get it. You have to be sick sick, not just sick, to get out of watchstanding once a sub is underway. A few days in the rack on morphine while passing a kidney stone will do it.... Wasn't me. Coughing and fever? Nope. Suck it up. Not like you can isolate. You're on a sub.

Rory said...

"...if you don't have elastics, you have to go to the store"

Everyone has elastics. You just have to choose between underwear and death.

narayanan said...

https://www.theseasonedmom.com/3-ingredient-beer-bread/

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Yes, I would be delighted to be infected. I have no real reason to be afraid of the virus and I'd like to be a part of developing herd immunity.

(I am personally wary of other everyday public health issues such as drunk driving, drug-fueled property crime, and gastrointestinal diseases spread by poor hygiene. Not to mention worried on behalf of others of the exacerbation of chronic mental health problems, child abuse, suicide, drug and alcohol addiction, marital strife and divorce, lack of care for acute or chronic physical and dental health problems which are all going to mushroom as a result of quarantine.)

But who knows? Maybe I already have been. I travel frequently, am very active in my community, and along with most of my family had a weird illness in early February that matches the symptoms.

Ken B said...

Pants
I look forward to hearing the details of your trial. Where are you enrolled?

narayanan said...

Blogger Rory said...

"...if you don't have elastics, you have to go to the store"

Everyone has elastics. You just have to choose between underwear and death.
_____________
if you have brand new cotton underwear they fashion easily into mask - experiment in front of mirror and finish off

Earnest Prole said...

As I mentioned yesterday, no one is going to catch the virus running past someone at a distance less than six feet, for exactly the reason described in this article. Of course there's always the danger a clueless person will step into your path, collide, and then cough in your face.

I wore my first mask yesterday, a t-shirt tied over my face (for the past three weeks I've been in public only to shop). I think a scarf or a buff would probably work better.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Sorry Ken, I'm not allowed to leave my house. Maybe you've heard?

Why are you such an asshole?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

rcocean My local grocery store has added a new wrinkle. You must wipe your hands with a store provided cleanser before you enter. Plus they wipe down your cart for you. How much longer before the clerks are enclosed behind plastic shields?

Our little grocery store does this as well. We use the lysol wipes when we go in. If you have brought your own bags, as we were all forced to do previously, you must bag your own groceries because they won't touch your bags. Otherwise you can get paper bags.

The checkers are wearing plastic gloves...no masks so far. One thing they do that I really like is that after each customer, they come around and wipe off the atm machine so you have a clean pad and screen to touch, if you aren't already wearing gloves yourself. They also wipe down the moving check out conveyor.

They have the markers on the floor for people in line to keep their distance and are, IMO, doing a very good job of trying to keep things sanitized...as best they can. There are so many variables of people along the supply chain and in the store who have touched items. It is really impossible to cover every possibility.

All we can do is our best efforts and be careful. After shopping and loading the car or truck, I sanitize my hands with a lysol wipe in my car, the door to the car, the steering wheel, radio, controlls and any other surfaces that I routinely touch. My car has never BEEN SO CLEAN!!!

You will make yourself crazy if you try to sanitize the whole world.

I expect that at some point we may get exposed and become ill. Even though we live in an isolated and sparsely populated area there is probably no way to avoid it. I've never had the flu in over 35 years. So fingers crossed that this time will be the same.

The best that can be hoped for is to get a mild case and do it when there are actually medicines and supplies available...which there are not now.

Covid cases in my county 11
deaths 1

All in a location over 100 miles from us. Adjoining counties just a few miles from here. 0/0

narayanan said...

Blogger Ken B said...

“Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future...."
OMG... so are we talking vaccines? Shocking! Who knew!

———-

No we are not. Vaccination and variolation are different. If we had vaccines we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
___________
only if we have enough for all to be vaccinated

Jamie said...

My grocery store in Katy, TX: social distancing footprint decals on the sidewalk out front, where everyone must have a cart (to enforce distance inside the store) that had been disinfected by store personnel. Hand sanitizer at the entrance is mandatory, including if you are wearing gloves (sanitize your gloves). A constable is sitting at the entrance to count customers, enforce order, break up fights, whatever.

At the cash registers, more footprint decals at 6-ft intervals, plus instructions to unload your entire cart at the far end of the belt and wait for the cashier (who is now behind a broad plexiglass shield with a small, low opening for passing cash or receipts) to summon you forward. You push your cart to the end and wait with the plexiglass shield between you and the cashier. A gloved bagger bags your groceries, and only when instructed do you insert your card into the card reader to pay. You collect your receipt through the little opening, the bagger steps aside, and you may reclaim your cart and leave - more footprint decals on the floor on the way out.

Jamie said...

Oh, right, I forgot about the cashiers wiping down the belts and card reader keypad between customers.

Cameron said...

Brooklyn is about 70% mask wearers now. I just bought a scarf and intend to cover my face with it when I go out from now on.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

I must admit that when I go out to the store and I hear someone cough, my stress level increases. by a lot.
Come on people - No coughing in public. no sneezing either. Suck it up and hold it in.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

One thing I don't understand is why PIN pads don't have disposable plastic covers all the time. Not just for CV, not just for cold and flu season, but for ordinary germs. I don't want to touch buttons that some guy touched after scratching his butt. I've used my knuckles for PIN pads, elevator buttons, ATM buttons, for years and years for just this reason.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Men need to stop with the loogies on the sidewalk, and the farmer-nose-blow during outside activity.

Keep your bodily fluids to yourself. Or you will be shot at dawn. * good thing I'm not in charge.
*thank you*

mockturtle said...

CBS news used a video from Italy hospital showing 'crowded NYC hospital'. :-\
Link

Will the media ever regain even a shred of credibility? 'Editing error' my ass! :-(

AP said...

I just realized that I agree with Howard and Inga in this thread, I believe for the first time in the years I've been reading this blog:

Howard said:
You need to make your own masks for yourselves and your families.

Inga said:
As for masks, as I’ve been saying endlessly, make your own. If you’re not a sewist, there are videos of making them out of a bandana and two ponytail elastics. The mask may not be enough to keep you from inhaling or exhaling some virus laden particles, but maybe it does keep the virus dose low. Maybe it’ll keep one from touching their face, who knows, but I don’t think it will hurt to wear a mask.

I'm in near complete agreement with both sentiments. I had my mother (who owns a sewing machine) make our family masks way back in mid-March when the data started getting shared that masks clearly work. I've been using one every time I go outside ever since.

The original guidance on masks from the CDC, Surgeon General, WHO, etc. was always nonsensical, and as others have pointed out, damaging to their future credibility.

Ken B said...

“ Will the media ever regain even a shred of credibility?”

Credibility? No. Credence? Yes.

mockturtle said...

One thing I don't understand is why PIN pads don't have disposable plastic covers all the time. Not just for CV, not just for cold and flu season, but for ordinary germs.

Great idea, pants. But I'm afraid there would be some idiots pulling them all out at once and wasting them. It's why we can't have nice things. I'm afraid protection against dangerous pathogens is pretty much on us, just as is armed defense of home and family.

mockturtle said...

The original guidance on masks from the CDC, Surgeon General, WHO, etc. was always nonsensical, and as others have pointed out, damaging to their future credibility.

Yep. Meanwhile, 3M was shipping all their N-95 masks to foreign buyers.

mockturtle said...

Dependence on the government is always dangerous. At any level.

Ralph L said...

On my way out an hour ago, Harris Teeter stationed someone outside the door to wipe carts for incoming customers. She wasn't there when I arrived. On Monday, they had someone inside the door to wipe them after I'd pushed it in. No TP or kleenex at Walmart or H-T. Next week I'll go there when they open.

Ralph L said...

3M was shipping all their N-95 masks to foreign buyers.

Pence should have been on that weeks ago.

Inga said...

“I'm in near complete agreement with both sentiments. I had my mother (who owns a sewing machine) make our family masks way back in mid-March when the data started getting shared that masks clearly work. I've been using one every time I go outside ever since.“

I hope you’re handling it carefully when you take it off and put it somewhere that no one will handle it until you can launder it in hot soapy bleachy water. Wash after every time you wear it in public spaces.

walter said...

" During the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong, for instance, one patient infected many others living in the same complex of apartment buildings, resulting in 19 dead. The spread of infection is thought to have been caused by airborne viral particles that were blown throughout the complex from the initial patient’s apartment unit."

Seeing multiple articles suggesting otherwise:
Can the new coronavirus spread through building pipes?

On Tuesday (Feb. 11), officials said they had evacuated and quarantined more than 100 residents of an apartment building in Hong Kong's Tsing Yi area after a 62-year-old woman became the second person in the building to catch the new viral disease, now called COVID-19 (short for coronavirus disease 2019). She lived 10 floors below the first infected resident, raising the question of whether the virus could spread through the building infrastructure, such as through a pipe, The New York Times reported. Officials also found an unsealed pipe in the woman's bathroom.

Officials are still investigating exactly how the virus may have transmitted between the two residents.

But there has been at least one instance of a coronavirus spreading through pipes.

In 2003, during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS (which is also caused by a coronavirus) officials found that the virus was likely transmitted in a Hong Kong apartment tower called Amoy Gardens through faulty plumbing, according to the World Health Organization.

This happened because the SARS coronavirus could get into feces and thus into raw sewage. The pipes that carry raw sewage are "usually kept separate from people," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease specialist and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. But if there are leaks or breaches in the pipes, it could allow people to be exposed. For example a faulty piping system could allow the virus to become "aerosolized" out of a pipe and get into the surrounding air, Adalja said.

At the time of the SARS outbreak, an investigation at Amoy Gardens indeed found problems with drainage pipes."

Amesh Adalja
@AmeshAA
·
19m
I'll be discussing the latest on #COVID19 with @BillHemmer
on @FoxNews
at about 3:20 PM
Amesh Adalja
@AmeshAA
·
3h
I’ll be discussing the latest on #covid19 with @KateBolduan
on @CNN
at about 12:10 pm
Amesh Adalja
@AmeshAA
·
9h
I’ll be discussing the latest on #COVID19 on @FoxBusiness
with @MariaBartiromo
at about 6:30 am

Pubmed appears to lean towards air transmission..though one blames RATS!:
Pubmed for Amoy Gardens

Ken B said...

“ Meanwhile, 3M was shipping all their N-95 masks to foreign buyers. “

False.

mockturtle said...

In yesterday's presser, Navarro had, IMO, the best remarks and did an outstanding job delivering information and answering questions. He was emphatic that: "Never again should we rely on the rest of the world for our essential medicines and countermeasures,"..."One of the things that this crisis has taught us is that we are dangerously overdependent on a global supply chain," Navarro said. "For our medicines like penicillin, our medical supplies, masks, and our medical equipment like ventilators."

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Mock-T @ 1:55-
that's why we call the MSM the hack-press.

mockturtle said...

Pants, I was just considering that the ejection of a disposable liner could be triggered by the card insertion, so that should work. :-)

tim in vermont said...

"Men need to stop with the loogies on the sidewalk, and the farmer-nose-blow during outside activity.”

You’ve been saving that one in a “come the revolution” kind of way.

Iman said...

Aja

Up on the Hill
Got nothing upstairs
They just don't care
Chinese markets sell the strangest stuff
Pangolins, bats and dat Shar Pei muff
Asia
When all my sick pukin' is through
I’ll run from you

Up on the Hill
They've got time to burn
There's no return
Toilet paper’s good as gold tonight
Hand out the face masks
Let's do it right
Asia
When all my lung burnin' is through
I’ll run from you

mockturtle said...

If it's false, Ken B, why did Trump have to sign an order to stop it?

RigelDog said...

Finally an article with some sane, obvious observations. I kept waiting for officials to acknowledge factors such as viral dose/load in making recommendations. Passing near someone for a second, provided they don't sneeze right on you, is arguably a negligent risk--especially outdoors.
Wearing a mask has made a lot of sense to me from the beginning, because it will cut down on droplet transmission going both ways between the wearer and the outside world, and because even though some viral particles will bypass a mask, the sheer physical number of virus particles will be at least partially blocked.

Ken B said...

If it’s true Mockturtle you can provide data to prove it. Keyword “all”.

mockturtle said...

There are three possibilities here:
1. An accidental but dangerous pandemic.
2. A hyped-up sinister plot by the global elite to grab power and tank the global economy.
3. Both 1 & 2: The global elite using an actual pandemic to grab power and tank the global economy.

I'm inclined to believe 3 but I'm not certain what to believe or whom to believe at this point.

Ken B said...

I shouldn’t have to refute Mockturtle's false claim but I will anyway.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronativus-trump-3m-n95-masks-20200403-svjgqtec5nhthhruu6766awlr4-story.html

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Tim in Vermont.

You'd think! but really - no. Walking into the store yesterday - what do I see on the pavement right outside the door? man-loogie!

Riding mountain bike on path with others - what is witnessed? Farmer-snot-blow out EACH nostril. Kids and families nearby.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

60 Minutes Australia: Chinese President Xi Allowed 5 Million Out Of Wuhan


But remember- this is all Trump's fault. Just ignore the politicians who make mega bucks from ChiComs. Cough *Clinton- woof

Danny W said...

My daughter realized this was anticipated in The Princess Bride:

Fezzik: Why do you wear a mask? Were you burned by acid, or something like that?

Man in Black: Oh no. It's just that they're terribly comfortable. I think everyone will be wearing them in the future.

walter said...

I hadn't heard about this:

UPMC

@UPMCnews

Today, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine @PittHealthSci scientists announced a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the #COVID19 pandemic. https://upmc.me/2JxzbAn

The researchers announced their findings Thursday and believe the vaccine could be rolled out quickly enough to “significantly impact the spread of disease,” according to their study published in EBioMedicine.

The vaccine would be delivered on a small, fingertip-sized patch. When tested on mice, the vaccine produced enough antibodies believed to successfully counteract the virus.

[…]

“These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus,” read a statement from co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, M.D., associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine.

“We knew exactly where to fight this new virus.”

[…]

Researchers said they sided with using a patch, rather than a traditional needle, to deliver the spike protein to the skin, which elicits the strongest immune reaction.

The patch contains 400 tiny “microneedles” made of sugar and protein pieces. It would be applied like a Band-Aid with the needles dissolving into the skin.

The vaccine would be “highly scalable” for widespread use, the researchers said in a news release.

narciso said...

and that was only one state
but they say it's only one micron across, and the n95 allows those particles three microns or larger,

walter said...

Iman,
Bryan Adams had it:

I'm gonna run from you
I'm gonna run from you
'Cause when your fever's high, you might cough in my eye.
I'm gonna run from you

narciso said...

interesting way to look at it

lgv said...

I haven't read all the comments, as many have veered off anyway. Viral load is very important as the article stated. This is why masks are important and why we should have mass producing them and getting them into everyone's hands. A surgical mask won't prevent you from getting the virus, but it will prevent you from giving it AND IT WILL REDUCE THE VIRAL LOAD YOU RECEIVE BY 83% PER STUDIES.

Get masks as soon as possible. Any mask will help.

Michael K said...

Navarro said. "For our medicines like penicillin, our medical supplies, masks, and our medical equipment like ventilators."

I wonder how many realize this was the result of a Chinese cartel that deliberately under priced the drugs until all US manufacturers were out of business?

Sebastian said...

reader: "it seems like there are a lot of old people who don’t care about the future of our next generations."

Yes, American seniors are a demanding and entitled bunch. But I actually don't think they all think this way. At least in my own circles, people over 80 have made their peace with mortality and do not cling to life as much as they once did.

"But Saddled with debt and no economy. Civil liberties shot to hell."

Exactly. Ruin is here. Of which sentient old people are well aware. Have we considered asking them how many millions should be spent on their behalf?

"For the people who are scared it’s all or nothing. Do what your told or we die. But...if you get it is it guaranteed death - no. If you don’t get it are you going to live forever - no. Is going to wipe out mankind - no."

Again, correct. The absolute treatment of life and death is itself a mistake. Life is not life, death is not death. It depends. Most of us know that. But it is a sign of the panic that what we ordinarily accept becomes unthinkable.

"Sign me up. Monitor me. Make an effort to help me. Even put me on a ventilator. But let’s say after 10 days take me off and leave it in the Lords hands."

Same here. I am willing to be infected and beat that sucker. No ventilator needed, I think. The only reason I don't go out of my way is to minimize even the small chance that I'd get in anyone's way.

tcrosse said...

There seems to have been a run on inexpensive sewing machines. Luckily I have enough bandannas and rubber bands.

tim in vermont said...

Reuters looks at the social costs of the shutdown based on previous experience. For example suicides.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-usa-cost/

narciso said...

that's just neighborly of them

Ken B said...

Anyone still opposed to delivery drones?

FullMoon said...

I Have Misplaced My Pants said... [hush]​[hide comment]

Sorry Ken, I'm not allowed to leave my house. Maybe you've heard?

Why are you such an asshole?

Because you hurt his feelings.

FullMoon said...

If the virus is super contagious through the air, why are entire apartment complexes not infected? Air is circulating through floor and wall space. If it were not so, you would not be able to smell the neighbor smoking weed or cooking dinner.



FullMoon said...

Chicken pox party/Corona party

Darrell said...

Julie Andrews helps you deal with SARS-CoV-2. Digitally lipsynched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMBh-eo3tvE&list=RDMMBh-eo3tvE&start_radio=1&fbclid=IwAR3GPVeAC795mSLBf0YHBvXjIqE1OVKvRcrWIbSWJ4eOhfmXtZefLBAUxIQ

CLICK

robother said...

What's next, full body burkas? And unlike those lukewarm Islamists in Saudi Arabia, for every gender! Allah will be so pleased not to have to look at our sorry asses.

Drago said...

Ken B's link: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronativus-trump-3m-n95-masks-20200403-svjgqtec5nhthhruu6766awlr4-story.html

"3M fires back at Trump, says halting exports of N95 face masks would backfire, hurt US"

Huh.

How many votes did 3M get last election?

RigelDog said...

If the virus is super contagious through the air, why are entire apartment complexes not infected? }}}

Excellent question. There is no evidence, according to my avid reading on the subject, that it IS transmitted through the air in any meaningful way outside of people who are in close, sustained contact, especially in enclosed spaces. Healthcare workers are at obvious risk, especially when doing certain procedures that produce a lot of aerosoles. China identified an early transmitter who sat, unmasked and ill before the virus had been widely acknowledged, on a crowded bus for four hours. No open windows and the ventilation was a closed system. Several people tested positive because of being in that closed environment with an actively infected man who was coughing. Interestingly, no one who was wearing a mask got infected.

Nichevo said...

Howard, your thoughts/opinion on the USS Theodore Roosevelt situation?

Iman said...

Not bad, Walter!

walter said...

FWIW, William Grace MD was on Bannon's radio show today talking about very good results with immediate/pre cascade H+A in NYC area hospital (Lennox?)

mockturtle said...

Ken B: Did you not watch today's press conference? I didn't make that up out of thin air.

Steven said...

"If the virus is super contagious through the air, why are entire apartment complexes not infected?"

There were reports from China that this did happen. People in neighboring apartments becoming sick. Could have been from interactions in the hallway, but air is also possible.

narciso said...

that's just silly

Michael K said...

If the virus is super contagious through the air, why are entire apartment complexes not infected? }}}<

Good point,. Penicillin was discovered because the mold contaminated a Petri dish one floor down in the building. Fleming had opened the Petri dish for only a few moments to plant a culture of Staph before leaving on vacation.

He came back two weeks later and discovered Penicillin.

mockturtle said...

BB&H comments: But remember- this is all Trump's fault. Just ignore the politicians who make mega bucks from ChiComs. Cough *Clinton- woof

If you're going to cough on this blog, you'd better be wearing a mask! ;-)

Sebastian said...

Howard: "Existing inflammation provides a rich bed for it to settle in. The primary cause of inflammation is obesity. It is one of the several pathologies associated with metabolic disorder. The other primary of course are diabetes and heart disease."

You keep this up and we are bound to be best buddies. If Drago approves.

Now, we really do know the age profiles. We really do know the primary risk factors. We really do know the elementary cautions. Exact fatality rates still a bit unclear, estimated at .6 by Ferguson. Exact risk to young people independent of co-morbidities also unclear, at least to me. OK.

But, you following me still?, I take the evidence to point to the need for strict but selective quarantines and for reopening safely, first by healthy younger people with precautions (and preferably, testing!).

Iman said...

Wynona’s Low-Grade Fever

Wynona’s got herself a low-grade fever
and she’s stayin’ away from all her friends.
One day, you know, that fever tried to leave her,
So we caged her with a cyclone fence.
Along came Bill, he’s such a pill
Says “I recognize that smell”
“Smells like seven layers… she caught a fever
eatin’ Taco Bell!”

narciso said...

that would be logical, that's not what is being done however,

walter said...

It just might be informative to have commie virus infection rates (and antibody test results) from non-medical public facing workers such as cashiers. Not all stores, gas stations etc have opted for plexiglass or masks. Store receipts and log-ins tell the volume of customers they dealt with..that would presumably reflect viral load.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Mock-T.

*cyber cough* is OK? no? dang.
My plan to hoard all your TP crashed and burned. ;-)

Howard said...

Nichevo: I haven't studied on the Teddy Roosevelt. What's going on there that is got you so interested?

Howard said...

Yeah Sebastian I think that's how it's going to roll out. I don't have a good feeling for when the start of that could occur next couple of weeks will be instructive.

narciso said...

you would think a marine, would know about opsec,

tcrosse said...

The skipper of the TR had a corona virus outbreak on board. His call for help somehow made it into the newspapers, so he had to go. Whether his superiors were of any help in this predicament, is yet to be determined. But he stepped outside the chain of command and went public, which cannot be tolerated. FWIW the crew cheered him as he piped over the side.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Re Reuters link: Tim, you’re a good man, and an honest one.

bagoh20 said...

I've always been a fan of low-dose in everything. Why ruin a good thing. " A man has got know his limitations."

Michael K said...

3M has not learned the lesson Mark Twain described in "Don't get into an argument with someone who buys ink by the barrel."

bagoh20 said...

In Nevada we are up to 43 deaths statewide. At this point in 2018 after 13 weeks of the flu we were over 630. Nobody even remembers. It would suck to die of the flu. It's like it doesn't count. Nobody even broke out a mask for ya.

bagoh20 said...

Mockturtle, there is a less sinister, but sad possibility. There was a serious outbreak of a new virus in some places, but poor reporting, lazy record keeping, and widespread hysteria turned it into a pandemic everywhere, becuase it created an atmosphere that would not let any counter-information in. This happened by immediate attacks, shaming, and bullying. It might have been a worldwide version of what we had on this blog, but with more important and informed people versus important and powerful ones in the intelligentsia. People have the information to dispute the conventional wisdom, but it's just not worth wasting you time or career. Not becuase it's not important, but becuase it will not be listened to anyway...yet.

Drago said...

Sebastian: "You keep this up and we are bound to be best buddies. If Drago approves."

I am cautiously optimistic.

Howard said...

Thanks tcrosse, it sounds like a bit of a nothingburger compared to what's going on in New York City. I'm sure the skipper knew the risk to his career.

Drago said...

tcrosse: "The skipper of the TR had a corona virus outbreak on board. His call for help somehow made it into the newspapers, so he had to go. Whether his superiors were of any help in this predicament, is yet to be determined. But he stepped outside the chain of command and went public, which cannot be tolerated. FWIW the crew cheered him as he piped over the side."

The Skipper is lucky he was only fired.

The Captain spoke publicly (he sent his complaints over non-secure channels) concerning the material and combat readiness of his ship while at sea!

If a sailor had done this that sailor would be sitting in the brig right now.

There is no way the Captain did not know this would happen the very second he hit send on that message.

As for the video I saw regarding his getting cheered, it appeared to me that it was perhaps a hundred or so crew members that were cheering.

There are approximately 5,000+ ships company and attached Airwing personnel on board.

mockturtle said...

The skipper of the TR had a corona virus outbreak on board. His call for help somehow made it into the newspapers, so he had to go. Whether his superiors were of any help in this predicament, is yet to be determined. But he stepped outside the chain of command and went public, which cannot be tolerated. FWIW the crew cheered him as he piped over the side.

Tcrosse, IMO the entire military upper echelon needs to be replaced.

Nichevo said...

Howard, CAPT Brett Crozier of the TR was so worried over an outbreak of COVID-19 his ship picked up on a port visit this March 6 to Da Nang, that he broke OPSEC and wrote a 4-page bitch-and-moan about it over unsecure comms to all and sundry, because Mommy didn't love him enough I guess. Relieved of command. (Because reasons, nothing else apparently will happen to him.)

Now we have a carrier stuck in port on Guam, as out of action as if one of those Chink DF-21s actually worked, and other than switching thumbs, nobody seems to know what to do, boo hoo, the ship's full of boogers, we're all going to DIE!!!

Worst part of all is that now the worthy oriental gentlemen know that their biowarfare tactics are successful, that apparently we have no notion of blame or retaliation (as you know, a germ is a gas is a rad is a nuke), and that apparently there isn't any idea how to handle it, because apparently, this being the third strike of proof, there isn't a single seaman in the Pacific Fleet.

(USS Bunker Hill also visited, but as her commander did not piss his pants in public over it, don't know if they have issues)

Cdr Salamander blog seems to run supportive of the muppet while Instapundit crowds are less so.

Won't take you long to Google all you want about it, if you want. Surprised you missed it.

Howard said...

Interesting summary Drago and Nichevo.

FYI Eric Weinstein on Joe Rogan today talking China

Sebastian said...

NYC data: 11 out of over 1100 deaths were people under 65 with no underlying conditions.

Ken B said...

Mockturtle
I did not watch any press conference. Why? If I had would that have made the claim true? Some is not all.

Michael K said...

t sounds like a bit of a nothingburger compared to what's going on in New York City.

Common theme. Obama captain, Obama admirals, Democrat politicians. What else is new ?

walter said...

Italy Finally Starts Mass Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine

The drug “is already giving good results,” Bartoletti says while Malaysia reveals they have been using it since the very beginning. Bartoletti further adds that the drug:

“Must be used with all the necessary precautions, it must be evaluated patient by patient. It can have side effects. But those that take it are responding really well.

We have just understood that the virus has an evolution in two phases and that it is during the second phase, after a few days (about a week), that the situation can suddenly, in 24 or 48 hours, worsen and leads to respiratory failure requiring intensive care.

The results that we are starting to accumulate suggest that hydroxychloroquine administered early, gives the possibility of avoiding this evolution in a majority of patients and is also helping us to prevent hospitals from filling up.”

Referring to the European Discovery trial in which UK is taking part with only 800 patients, Perronne says:

“I refused to participate because this study provides for a group of severely ill patients who will only be treated symptomatically and will serve as control witnesses against four other groups who will receive antivirals. It is not ethically acceptable to me.
<
America is to start yet another study which is to take one month even while one thousand people or more are dying worldwide today. In Italy however doctors are finally not waiting anymore with Perronne saying:

“Even though the overwhelming evidence from large randomized studies is still lacking, I am in favor of a broad prescription for the following reasons:

1. We have a large body of evidence showing that in vitro hydroxychloroquine blocks the virus. We also have several clinical results indicating that this product is beneficial if administered early and we have no mention that it harms or is dangerous in this infection (only one study, poorly detailed, Chinese, on 30 patients with control group, did not observe any benefits but also no harmful effects). What is the risk of administering chloroquine straight away: nothing!

2. This drug is very inexpensive 3. It is well tolerated in long-term treatment. Personally, I have successfully used it clinically in the chronic form of Lyme disease for 30 years at a dose of 200 mg or even 400 mg/day.

bagoh20 said...

Frankly, I'm surprised that someone like that could even be the captain of a major warship with 4800 men and the power to level a city. He exposed all those human and material assets as damaged and weak to the entire world including our enemies near by. For me, it's inexcusable, and he should not get command again. It not only put that entire ship in peril now, but makes all our other ships look less imposing, and that defeats the very purpose of having them, which obviously is no small expense or commitment by us all. And why was that necessary? Because 100 out of 4800 were infected. Not sick, not dying, but just infected by a virus that has very little effect on young healthy people, which I assume those men are. There is one effect of this virus that is unprecedentedly dangerous. It scares people senseless.

Jeff said...

Vaccination and variolation are different. If we had vaccines we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But we do have vaccines. We don't have vaccines that have been tested to the FDA's satisfaction, but that's a different story. The Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine trial started on March 16'th, over two weeks ago. By now, almost three weeks later, they should be seeing antibody responses, and that's all they need to measure to figure out how big the vaccine dose has to be to get the desired effect. Because the vaccine does not contain the actual virus, there is no possibility the participants will become infected from the vaccine. Safety is not an issue, only effectiveness is. Supposedly it should be possible to scale up production pretty rapidly.

But the FDA is going to make sure we don't have this vaccine or any other one widely available until long after the worst of the crisis is past. The reason variolation is being discussed by people is that the FDA can't really interfere with it. But you'd be far better off getting a dose of the "untested" Moderna vaccine than by deliberately getting yourself infected with the real thing and hoping that the dose you got was large enough to trigger an adaptive immune response but small enough to not make you seriously ill. There is no reason but the bureaucratic imperative why Moderna couldn't make the vaccine publicly available while continuing to test it.

If we lived in a free country you could get vaccinated next week. Maybe it wouldn't work very well, but in that case you'd be no worse off than you are now. It might work just fine. But even though the vaccine isn't dangerous, you won't be allowed to try it until God, err, the FDA, says you can.

I would love to see some country somewhere go to Moderna and say "Look, we'll indemnify you from any and all lawsuits stemming from you making your vaccine publicly available in our country." And then when that country's citizens get sick in much smaller numbers than we do, perhaps we can finally abolish the FDA.

walter said...

Coronavirus Vaccine Could Start Second Phase Trials As Early As Spring, Moderna Says

Iman said...

Iran you say. Why do you think only men are getting it there?

They’re doing Ghotzbadeh.

Matt said...

You can think of this as the cellular level of "flattening the curve". Viral replication is exponential - one virus hijacked cell releases many copies. Small differences at the start of that exponential curve make big differences further along. And just like the goal is to avoid overwhelming hospitals, a lower viral load helps prevent your immune response from being overwhelmed.

NotWhoIUsedtoBe said...

I thought so. The high rate of doctors dying made me wonder.