Today people started losing their jobs because of Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats, who should immediately come back to Washington and approve legislation to help families in America. End your ENDLESS VACATION!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 17, 2020
Crazy Nancy Pelosi deleted this from her Twitter account. She wanted everyone to pack into Chinatown long after I closed the BORDER TO CHINA. Based on her statement, she is responsible for many deaths. She’s an incompetent, third-rate politician! pic.twitter.com/uWNI7DCG3o
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 16, 2020
Crazy “Nancy Pelosi, you are a weak person. You are a poor leader. You are the reason America hates career politicians, like yourself.” @seanhannity She is totally incompetent & controlled by the Radical Left, a weak and pathetic puppet. Come back to Washington and do your job!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 16, 2020
Posts
258 comments:
1 – 200 of 258 Newer› Newest»Speaking of weak leaders.
Sounds like someone got to Trump and convinced him to rein it in a little.
I wish he could be a little more non political tbh. But this is a totally fair cop, and someone should be saying. Our media won’t. The Democrats won’t. Mitt Romney won’t.
Could Pelosi's video of all her designer ice creams in her freezer be her "Let them eat cake." moment?
Savage = Tell the truth about
If you go through an impeachment process to insult and cripple your political opponent you don’t get to have a do over and say let’s be nice now. The gloves are off, I would rather have it in the open rather than a thin veneer of fake love.
Tar. Feathers. Noose. Draw. Quarter. Pinch of salt.
Why shouldn't he?? She is a liar. She is sitting home on her ass taking her taxpayer funded paycheck spewing hate, while Trump is working his ass off for free....with no help at all from the lying Democrats who really want to hurt America and it's people.
A politician should be non-political, said somebody wanting a complete surrender to the forces of the Leftist Collectivists.
Do you have a newsletter?
There are things I wish Trump would stop doing. But this is not one of them. No one else would call this out the way he calls it out. And he calls it out like some schmuck on the street would (I include myself in the schmuck on the street description). We understand his talk. And frankly- the hideous media and their refusal to shine a light on Nancy 'Marie Antoinette' Pelosi is the reason he has to go to this measure to bring some eyes to it.
Pelosi is a walking example of the need for term limits. She is cruel, self-serving to the max. Corrupt. With utter disregard for either the truth or the people of this nation.
People are lining up for miles to collect food from food banks and there's Fancy Nancy munching a Dove bar in front of her mega dollar freezer. What POS she is.
Trump's style reminds me of a boxing match. When his opponent let's their guard down, and becomes vulnerable, Trump just starts throwing in the punches. I can see why he likes being compared to Rocky.
Nancy P is a disgrace, as are her supporters who keep her in power, and she deserves to be "savaged" on the internet.
He's mellowing. I hope it doesn't go much further than this, though.
"Savaged"?
Conjures the racist image of a white woman being attacked by an indigenous tribesman.
Pelosi was on late night TV showing off her $24k frig packed with $12 per pint ice cream. Clueless doesn't begin to describe her.
Serious question: Why don't the people of SF picket her house and demand that she feed them ice cream?
I was surprised yesterday to get a text from a Trump hating liberal friend asking me to call Chuck Schumer because he and Nancy Pelosi are blocking the much-needed extension of funding for small business loans.
he and Nancy Pelosi are blocking the much-needed extension of funding for small business loans.
They impeached Trump for withholding aid to Ukraine.
There it is. Get some.
ARM got the ChiCom memo early today.
When he's right, he's right.
Pelosi/Schumer are holding up the loan package because they want 50% of the money to go to businesses owned by women and minorities.
Apparently they don't know that even white guys have women/minority employees who are adopt to lose their jobs.
@Begley,
"Serious question: Why don't the people of SF picket her house and demand that she feed them ice cream?"
They are too busy defecating on the sidewalks........
The thing is to convince the left. The right saw it clearly years ago.
"Serious question: Why don't the people of SF picket her house and demand that she feed them ice cream? "
No point. She is at her Napa vineyard estate, which is three counties away from San Francisco.
You'd think at least one democrat/LLR would apologize for spending 4 years calling Trump a russian asset/spy now that we have the documentation proving not only it was all a lie, but that amazingly, it was the dems and deep staters actively colluding with russian intel disinformation to attack the Trump campaign and Presidency.
But nope.
They simply moved seamlessly to parroting Beijing propaganda as if the last 4 years never happened.
The more I see Nancy-Pants speak on TV, the less I view her as a hot Octogenarian.
Personality matters!
The gal is a menace to a free society. But she is powerful.
The G7 has also just announced that they will be following the Trump Administrations lead and support a thorough review of the WHO's complicity with the ChiComs in covering up and lying about the origins of this disease....in China...Wuhan specifically.
ARM hardest hit.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Nancy Pelosi is an awful person. We have literally millions of people out of work and she's behaving appallingly, showing off freezers full of ice cream while blocking funding for small businesses. It's crazy. You couldn't design a better villian in all this.
She led the impeachment hoax. She deserves all the derision she gets.
Trump’s New York is #1 on the deaths per million list while Pelosi’s California is #29.
I believe there is a very simple explanation for this anger.
Trump is at work, holding daily briefings, and working every day on this.
Congress is on vacation, and Nancy is bragging about her ice cream collection.
"Trump’s New York is #1 on the deaths per million list while Pelosi’s California is #29"
Yes! Some folks have been saying this for a while....
Out of curiosity, why do you think that is?
Hey Trump calls them as he sees them. In this case he's not far off the mark. And Left Bank of the Charles---Hillary was cackling that the "US is Number One!" in Wuhan flu deaths.
If you haven't noticed Left Bank--Trump lives in D.C. and Florida these days; Fredo Cuomo's brother is running New York along with DeBlasio.
Pelosi took down her post inviting everyone to Chinatown? Why so ever for?
Chicken shit…
As I predicted here at the outset, the PPP is likely to concentrate foregiveness benefits on the companies that need them least.
Coronavirus recovery -- PPP lets small business suffer while big, profitable companies get mega bucks
https://www.foxbusiness.com/small-business/coronavirus-ppp-small-business-bucks
The reason the system has broken down and exceeded all costs is the foolhardy idea of converting the loans into "grants" that don't ever have to be repaid to taxpayers. The loan becomes a grant if the firm doesn't lay off its workers. If you rehire laid-off workers before June 30 those employees count as fully employed.
What happened is that thousands of financially healthy businesses are getting loans of $100,000 to $3 or $4 million and they are pocketing the money. They weren't going to lay off workers in the first place.
Worse yet, the Washington Post reports that the feds won’t report which big companies are getting the taxpayer handouts. Maybe Congress doesn’t want these company CEOs to feel embarrassed. They should be.
I am personally getting calls from business executives asking: How do I get the free money? The PPP plan was supposed to prevent layoffs but thousands of these businesses weren’t ever going to give pink slips to employees.
Blogger Left Bank of the Charles said..."Trump’s New York is #1 on the deaths per million list while Pelosi’s California is #29."
And can you explain what this has to do with anything?
The potential clawback in the existing PPP legislation: A certification is required in the application that the company "needs" the loan.
My husband and I are in business for ourselves and our business has been deemed non-essential. We are ok, but we have no idea how things will shake out. If people lose their jobs then our business will be hurt and we'll see the financial hit in a few months.
But we aren't sneaking around conducting business anyway. We know some of our competitors do, but that's not us.
I'm also a yoga teacher, and I'm teaching remotely for my studio. I do get paid for that, but I also had to buy some equipment to make the streaming viable. I've lost most of my income from this, but I'm happy to do my part to help the studio owner keep his business going so he can pay rent and get back up and running when this is all over.
When I went to give blood a few weeks ago, the said my temperature was 99.8 and they sent me home. My temperature never read as elevated again, but I closed myself in my house and room for 7 days. My husband dropped food off without touching me and I washed my own dishes in the bathroom sink before sending them back downstairs. when nobody was up and I did go somewhere in the house, I wore gloves and wiped anything I got near with alcohol. Even though I had no symptoms and my temperature was normal.
But I don't laud all the closures and I don't think they are all wise, and suddenly that makes me a danger to society. People should listen to themselves. America was built on asking questions about rules.
Of course, this is all crazy-unusual. We’d never think about the national interest in this way, during a normal presidency. It’s purely a Trump phenomenon.
This is nonsense of course. Dems have always prioritized politics over national interest. This was true of:
- 9-11, where they outlined their plan to claim the 9-11 commission refused to investigate certain evidence before the committee was even formed.
- The Giffords shooting which Dems immediately and wrongly tried to blame on Tea Partiers and the use of the word "targeting" as if millions of worse examples weren't present in their own communications.
- After the housing crisis the Dems spent every bit of their energy trying to direct blame to "deregulation" even though no removed regulation would have had any impact on the failures.
- And of course Dems' priority in the current crisis is blaming Trump.
The only difference is that Trump will respond.
FB friend in Montana says the mountain states are opening up for biz with or without permission.
Hooray for the cowboys and cowgirls!
All seems very legit. She has only made things worse and has nothing positive to contribute in this crisis, just like most of her party.
The country would be better off if she simply retired to her luxury ice cream collection and multi-million dollar compound in NorCal.
He sounds like Shouting Thomas on these tweets.
I remember when the press was apoplectic that Trump got two scoops of ice cream.
Good times.
@MayBee,
"My husband and I are in business for ourselves and our business has been deemed non-essential. We are ok, but we have no idea how things will shake out. If people lose their jobs then our business will be hurt and we'll see the financial hit in a few months."
Hang in there! Lotta folks are experiencing the same thing. That's why reopening is so important in my view.
"I was surprised yesterday to get a text from a Trump hating liberal friend asking me to call Chuck Schumer because he and Nancy Pelosi are blocking the much-needed extension of funding for small business loans."
I've got a friend who's GI practice is going under. He applied and was told "Sorry, we're out of money."
@Chuck
Of course, this is all crazy-unusual. We’d never think about the national interest in this way, during a normal presidency. It’s purely a Trump phenomenon. No normal president would personally publish such things about the Speaker of the House, and no normal president would try to take unique personal credit for the handling of a crisis in which he has lied his way through it all.
Before Obama no president had anything like twitter that would have allowed him to go around to press to reach the people. For that matter normal president is an oxymoron. Teddy Roosevelt would have been hilarious on twitter, it would be "blast and damnation" everyday.
Inga: "He sounds like Shouting Thomas on these tweets."
Inga is one of those who believes she can pretend her 4 years of 24/7 russia collusion conspiracy attacks against Trump and others based on now proven lies can simply be forgotten and never addressed.
He sounds like Shouting Thomas on these tweets.
That good, huh?
I had to go back and read them. Yeah, it’s good shit!
Bay Area Guy- I agree. My husband and I both agree- and he's a Democrat!
We were also just talking about the weather. In LA, it's nice and I see people are starting to go out. Here in Michigan, it's snowing. But soon enough it will be nice, and all the people in Chicago and Michigan and Wisconsin will go outside. The governors will lift these restrictions sometime before that nice weather hits for good, so they don't risk the people just ignoring them. They are going to need to optics of still being in control.
He is banned, isn't he? I didn't believe it.
“He sounds like Shouting Thomas on these tweets.”
Not until he wishes death on her he doesn’t.
Pelosi does have a lot of nerve.
"You'd think at least one democrat/LLR would apologize for spending 4 years calling Trump a russian asset/spy now that we have the documentation proving not only it was all a lie, but that amazingly, it was the dems and deep staters actively colluding with russian intel disinformation to attack the Trump campaign and Presidency."
Right. So, what'll come first--prog pro-hoaxers apologizing for supporting the biggest political scandal in American history, or pro-panic alarmists apologizing for supporting the biggest manufactured catastrophe in American economy history?
The rebellion is starting. I’m feeling better. I was ready to throw in the towel on you cowards earlier.
LA, of all places, is going back to work. Freeways are beginning to jam up.
The cowboy states are just about fully back online with or without approval of the fucking pols.
Here in commie NY, the Democrats are holding us hostage for as long as possible, hoping to continue to sabotage the economy and wound Trump.
Be a patriotic America and tell your government to go fuck itself!
Malig-nancy.
She's a nasty b with an entire family of government enrichment whores, Inc.
Trump has savaged Nancy Pelosi.
Nancy had it coming.
The left's main whine is that Trump didn't act sooner.
If that is valid - why did Malig-Nancy encourage social-virus spreading so early on?
Isn't that the height of hypocrisy and irresponsible leadership?
Lucid-Ideas said...
Tar. Feathers. Noose. Draw. Quarter. Pinch of salt.
4/17/20, 9:27 AM
Some assembly required.
Its pretty clear that a certain banned poster, knowing his comments will be rightfully expunged, needs but a moment to do a screen grab of his comment prior to deletion in order to show he has performed the work for which he is compensated.
"Trump Savaged Nancy Pelosi"? Jeez have you ever taken note of Dems when they savage Trump?
Marie Antionette doing what her clueless self does best.
If the last three months has been a preview of globalism, well, I don't want any part of it, and I suspect the backlash will be enormous.
Trump in 2016 was the culmination of 26 years of increasingly arrogant, condescending treatment of commoners in America. Let them eat cake.
Soup: "Jeez have you ever taken note of Dems when they savage Trump?"
Nope. That is simply the ocean within which we now swim.
Just look at Slow Joe Biden and his cue cards which directed him to have his very own Deplorables Moment just yesterday.
Btw, did anyone else catch Biden on Cooper's XiNN show yesterday?
Biden was literally reading his answers to the "spontaneous" (wink wink) questions off of cards....and he couldnt even do that right.
The Pelosi family have already been savaged by DJT’s Executive Order to the Sec’y of Treasury to confiscate the money and property of those involved in political corruption and The trafficking of drugs and humans. Which is probably why she refuses to return to DC where arrest awaits her.
A gentle reminder:
California (population 40 Million)
No. of Kung Flu deaths: 973 over 3 months
That's a mere 24 deaths per Million people.
That's low. Very low. Very, very, very low.
Indeed, that isn't flattening the curve. That's a flat curve to start, a flat curve in the middle, and a flat curve at the end.
To contrast: the flu/pneumonia kills about 6,300 Californians per year. Source: CDC California 2017
For first 3 months of 2020, that's about 1,600 Californians dying from flu/pneumonia.
To recap for same 1Q of 2020:
Kung Flu deaths in Cal: 973
Flu/pneumonia deaths in Cal: 1,600
How are folks differentiating between a death caused by the flu/pneumonia (which nobody seems to care about) and deaths caused by Kung Flu? (which causes ordinary folks to lose their intelligence, common sense, historical experience, wisdom and good humor).
Maybe, Nancy Pants can answer that from her ice cream parlor in Pacific Heights.
I finally looked at that Pelosi video. She is really clueless, like Inga.
Amazing she could be that out of touch.
Drago said...Btw, did anyone else catch Biden on Cooper's XiNN show yesterday?
I can't really watch Biden anymore. I derive no joy from watching a person who clearly is in the early stages of dementia stumble through an interview. I really don't want to pity Biden. I greatly dislike the guy with good reason. He has had a long career as a grifter and a grafter.
The DNC is going to have to figure out what to do about Biden. Maybe they can keep delaying their National Convention until they figure it out.
Not sure why Althouse just doesn't link to the video of this stupid bitch trying to convince people to gather in Chinatown restaurants during the middle of a Chinese-created pandemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3p3k10SkvE
Here she is, folks.
Some people love the tweets. Others hate them. Some people will like or at least not have a problem with one tweet but recoil at seeing them all together, one after the other, and worry about the president's focus and stability. Others might recoil from one of the tweets, but get used to seeing them together and become immunized. Politics has become so much a game of "gotcha" that it's inevitable that people would get tired of the game and adjust their expectations and assumptions.
This is all coming after fifty years of increasing partisan polarization. Those days of consensus and comity under Eisenhower and Kennedy were an exception in our history, due largely to the Cold War, and the fact that local interests and opinions still mattered in politics in those days, more than programmatic ideologies or burning social questions did.
That's a nice video of Nancy Pants (date Feb 24, 2020), but I did not see a lotta social distancing from the sycophants, the reporters or her staff!
Worry about the president's focus? Seems pretty focused to me.
We experience the real-time frame and focus, mood and mind of the Commander of the current Civilizational Center of the whole wide world. But not just us, it is live broadcast across the cyberverse to every person alive today, if they want to check their phone. I call it incredibly courageous.
Awesome history being made here. Awesome.
Nancy-Pants has an ice cream fridge that costs $24,000?
"While Nancy Pelosi sits in her ivory tower in San Francisco, eating $13 dollar a pint ice cream out of her $24,000 fridge,...."
Here's what Nancy-Pants sez: "We all have found our ways to keep our spirits up during these trying times. Mine just happens to fill up my freezer." #LateLateShow pic.twitter.com/dqA32d5lU1"
Wait $24,000 for a fridge? Technically, it's a freezer. That must be the Cadillac of freezers.
It seems quite clear that Trump enjoys campaigning for president far more than he does being president. With most presidents, it’s probably the other way around. Campaigning is something they have to put up with in order to get the prize.
I really don't like Pelosi and Schumer. I think they've done tremendous damage to our country. That said, I don't think that Trump calling them out is helping in this situation. I support him 100% but I wish he'd tone it down.
“Right. So, what'll come first--prog pro-hoaxers apologizing for supporting the biggest political scandal in American history, or pro-panic alarmists apologizing for supporting the biggest manufactured catastrophe in American economy history?”
Will Trump apologize for supporting the Governors in their mitigation policies? Will he apologize for believing and listening to the scientists? Will he apologize for thanking the Americans who took mitigation seriously? Stop blaming your fellow Americans, the buck stops at Trump’s desk.
Nancy is hiding from COVID-19. With the outbreak in D.C. still raging, you won't see her in Washington until Summer.
In the age of COVID-19, perhaps there should be a ceiling on the age of Representatives and Senators of 60. In other words, if you are too afraid to come back to D.C. to do your job, perhaps you should resign.
I prefer Trump's other tweets today: "Liberate Minnesota!" "Liberate Michigan!"
LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd amendment. It is under siege!
To be clear, I have no problem with Trump calling them out on their fecklessness and demanding that they do their jobs, but he should respect the offices they hold, if not the poor excuses for people who hold them.
By calling Nancy Antoinette to task, Trump shows greater respect of her office than she has shown for it. It is not respectful of the office to pretend that it is occupied by serious people when the office is held by a political hack creature like Pelosi.
"the less I view her as a hot Octogenarian."
There are no hot Octogenarians. There are no hot ones in their 70s either, and precious few in their 60s.
Yeah, criticizing Trump's tone or style on his tweets are fair game. Sometimes they hit the mark, sometimes they miss, sometimes they're great, sometimes they suck.
22 Million unemployed Americans is more pressing, though.
Trump’s New York is #1 on the deaths per million list while Pelosi’s California is #29.
No, that is Chuck Schumer's New York, and Andrew Cuomo's.
“Right. So, what'll come first--prog pro-hoaxers apologizing for supporting the biggest political scandal in American history, or pro-panic alarmists apologizing for supporting the biggest manufactured catastrophe in American economy history?”
Will Trump apologize for supporting the Governors in their mitigation policies? Will he apologize for believing and listening to the scientists? Will he apologize for thanking the Americans who took mitigation seriously?
These two things are only similar if you think Trump made up the seriousness of the Coronavirus, spread the word that it was serious knowing that it was not, and then started called for an investigation of any Governor that followed the mitigation politics.
Tone policing Trump's tweets and complaining about his vulgarity reveal the critic to be a pompous ass in denial about the times in which we live.
"There are no hot Octogenarians. There are no hot ones in their 70s either, and precious few in their 60s."
Ok, putting aside her desire to screw over America and putting aside her stupidity, on purely a physical criterion, ya gotta admit Nancy Pants looks very good for an 80-year old woman.
My 80-year old Grandma did NOT look like that. She looked more like Ruth Gordon in Every Which Way but Loose.
Inga said...
Stop blaming your fellow Americans, the buck stops at Trump’s desk.
It's amusing people who spent their entire lives demonizing their fellow Americans now lecture others about coming together.
And Trump didn't have to lie like the crooked democrats.
Inga: "Stop blaming your fellow Americans, the buck stops at Trump’s desk."
Hmmmmm [Checks calendar] yes, today is scheduled to be Trump is Dictator Day.
Tomorrow we will go back to Trump is Weak and The Governors Have All The Power Day.
Its the ability to flip back and forth seamlessly that made Inga such an "effective" voice in the 4 year running parade of collusion accusations against Trump despite all the actual evidence.
Its a gift really.
A freezer full of premium ice cream is a real turn on.
J. Farmer: "It seems quite clear that Trump enjoys campaigning for president far more than he does being president."
This is a false dichotomy.
"Its the ability to flip back and forth seamlessly that made Inga such an "effective" voice in the 4 year running parade of collusion accusations against Trump despite all the actual evidence.
Its a gift really"
The talented Miss Inga.
how dare you get in the way of the two minute hate
Pelosi is a corrupt and useless pol who pays lip service to her hard left base, but feeds her family bank account with tax payer graft.
Some small business owner ought to make his or her own video of what’s in their freezer. Maybe pull out the old fudgesicle that fell out of the box last summer, wedged under the ice cube bin.
In the ice cream video, I'm pretty sure Pelosi was about to say she stocked up for Easter Sunday because the family was coming over. Why else say she stocked up for Easter Sunday?
I think Bay Area Guy's first act when Newsome lift's the lockdown in November should be to make an appointment with his optician.
Nancy pelosi is actually Nancy d'alessandro Pelosi. Her family controlled Baltimore for a long time starting back in the 30s. Daddy was mayor from
Her family made Baltimore the shithole it is today while enriching themselves.
That's where she learned her politics.
PDJT should be pointing this out daily. "nancy d'ellessandro pelosi wants to turn the whole country into Baltimore. Don't let her." or some variation on that theme daily.
John Henry
"In the ice cream video, I'm pretty sure Pelosi was about to say she stocked up for Easter Sunday because the family was coming over. Why else say she stocked up for Easter Sunday?
Yes, I think you are probably right.
CStanley: "Some small business owner ought to make his or her own video of what’s in their freezer. Maybe pull out the old fudgesicle that fell out of the box last summer, wedged under the ice cube bin."
I'm fairly certain such an action would be deemed horrifically misogynistic, racist and Deplorable.
I have no problem with Trump calling them out on their fecklessness and demanding that they do their jobs, but he should respect the offices they hold, if not the poor excuses for people who hold them.
I missed him saying anything about the Speaker of the House or the Minority Leader of the Senate.
What I saw was about Chuck and Nancy,.
Nancy is elite. Her family can come on over and eat ice cream on Easter. In the mean time....you plebs stay home and stay apart. No family gatherings for you!!!
No, that is Chuck Schumer's New York, and Andrew Cuomo's.
It's interesting how Cuomo has become the media darling during this whole affair, despite the fact that Newsom seems to have done a better job. I've never been a fan of Newsom's, going all the way back to his 2004 gay marriage stunt. He's a Willie Brown protege and has the looks of a smarmy politician straight out of central casting. But I will give credit where it's due. By early March, Californians were being told to take precautions and prepare for potential disruptions to daily life while New Yorkers were told not to worry about coronavirus and to get out on the town. CUomo and de Blasio both dithered and flip-flopped their way through conflicting messages and sudden about faces.
Other factors are in play, like New York's exposure to infected travelers from Europe and population density, but the differences in management style are still striking.
>>he should respect the offices they hold
He's giving them the same amount they gave him. Which is to say none at all.
I feel certain LA and San Francisco (and Las Vegas) would have also had infected travelers from Europe.
Blogger MayBee said...
I feel certain LA and San Francisco (and Las Vegas) would have also had infected travelers from Europe.
I think there’s a good chance though that a much higher number of those brought infections into NYC than LA. I do think the West coast benefitted greatly from the early China travel ban.
Bay Area Guy - more like a Maybach. Nancy wouldn't be caught dead with a cheap-ass Caddy.
J. Farmer said...
It seems quite clear that Trump enjoys campaigning for president far more than he does being president. With most presidents, it’s probably the other way around. Campaigning is something they have to put up with in order to get the prize.
Think about this for a second. It is good stuff. Trump was always in the end building and selling a brand. Public perception based on results.
Trump is the first politician in a long long while that actually does what he says he is going to do. For almost every other politician in history the power is the end. For Trump it is what he gets done.
The interesting thing to me is the reaction to this. Most people clearly want to be lied to and taken advantage of.
I think there’s a good chance though that a much higher number of those brought infections into NYC than LA
I'm interested to know why this is so. European love LA, Santa Barbara, Napa Valley, San Francisco, and Las Vegas.
Careful, J.Farmer. Don't hype Newsom too much as he might start thinking of himself as presidential timber. Of course, it might be fun to watch Willie Brown running through the White House halls looking for interns! He's got a brand to uphold, after all.
and in germany, a lawyer that challenged the enabling law, was put in a psychiatric hospital because thought crime, its interesting how certain targets the british health minister, angela merkel, the brasilian national security chief, provoked a certain response,
Marshalling resources, coordinating with governors, what else what you have him do?
The difference between New York and California was temperature/humidity and subways.
It was too warm and humid in January and February in California to reach critical mass in the environment. Cars are also much safer than subways for a myriad of reasons including less transmission of disease.
New York is also manifestly corrupt in counting "presumed" cases and reporting deaths that happened weeks ago on today's numbers. It is a clear effort to generate panic and hide the fact that this was rampant in January and February.
the new normal
Farmer: "But I will give credit where it's due. By early March, Californians were being told to take precautions and prepare for potential disruptions to daily life while New Yorkers were told not to worry about coronavirus and to get out on the town."
You might want to factor in Newsome's fighting for open borders and creating a sanctuary state before praising Newsome too much on this one.
Speaking of California:
Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known.
jeez, whoda thunk it?
Money Quotes:
The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.
Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.
“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.
The key is infections without any symptoms.
Have a great day!
Don't hype Newsom too much as he might start thinking of himself as presidential timber.
What do you mean start? That ship sailed years ago.
Marshalling resources, coordinating with governors, what else what you have him do?
I was just remarking generally, not in regards to any specific situation.
I have no use for Pelosi's poltiics, but purely as a political operator, she has proven quite adept at outmaneuvering and goading him into avoidable blunders. She doesn't lob grenades but always employs a derisive, condescending tone.
Everybody hates career politicians and Washington careerists, but you really need some institutional knowledge to successfully sidestep all the DC landmines. Trump is something of a genius at branding and self-promotion, and while those skills are very beneficial in getting elected, they are less useful in governing.
@Drago:
You might want to factor in Newsome's fighting for open borders and creating a sanctuary state before praising Newsome too much on this one.
Well, I wasn't offering any kind of universal assessment of Newsom, only this specific issue. As I said, " I've never been a fan of Newsom's."
in the low bar category, gruesome passes the limbo stick
Pelosi hates me.
As Martin Riggs suggested: "Hate her back."
Yes, she probably does consider herself some sort of dirty.
Farmer: "Trump is something of a genius at branding and self-promotion, and while those skills are very beneficial in getting elected, they are less useful in governing."
This again.
Amazing.
she specializes in bills you 'have to vote for, to find out what's in it' at every single step she spent time and money (and squandered lives) in her little witchhunt, you want to consider that a talent, by all means,
maybe the protest worked
it's a good question but trash like vice and vanity fair just scream when the premise is put forth.
I am surprised he doesn't call her "Nancy Twelve Pints"
Achilles said...The difference between New York and California was temperature/humidity and subways.
I certainly agree about subways. It has a lot to do with viral load that overcrowding cannot explain. Note that both NY and CA lead the nation in cities with high population density.
Save this point for future reference:
There is a chance that some version of the coronavirus was an issue in CA and AZ in December through February. Thus, herd immunity may explain the relatively low death rates in CA and AZ.
@narciso:
she specializes in bills you 'have to vote for, to find out what's in it' at every single step she spent time and money (and squandered lives) in her little witchhunt, you want to consider that a talent, by all means,
You don't have to admire what somebody accomplished in order to admire how they accomplished it. You can, for example, admire OJ's defense team while simultaneously being unhappy that they got a double-murdered off.
I don't think one should be bashed for raising such questions, but this type of "analysis" is not science it's scientism--naive empiricism. Epidemiologists and virologists and modelers and data analysts are useful for understanding past virus outbreaks, but they have been out of their element trying to model a pandemic course for a novel virus. It's not the total number of deaths it's how quickly they've followed the outbreak. This thing could have been really, really bad. It could still get bad. Our response was tardy and incredibly costly, but the fact that some models that predicted much higher levels of infection and death proved inaccurate is neither here nor there. The principle underlying precautionary action holds, and what data there is support the notion that precautionary action was warranted. Maybe we will learn that we could have prevented the spread without draconian measures: what would have happened if we swiftly stopped all international travel to/from US and told everyone to wear masks and practice hygiene in late January? Could we have avoided the most authoritarian and costly shutdown related measures, and still achieved sufficient mitigation to preserve some measure of social and economic normality? To me that's the interesting question. Sure, there's a lot of goalpost moving and many an aspiring tyrant is engorged at the moment from their taste of real power, and we need to watch them. But the Ioannidis' and Berenson's of the world are trafficking not in provocative scientific ideas, but in empiricist garbage in the vein of Nate Silver's scientific election predictions.
J. Farmer: "It seems quite clear that Trump enjoys campaigning for president far more than he does being president."
Farmer- take off your blinders and consider this:
Do you really think Trump, at age 72, relishes wearing a damn suit and tie everyday and taking crap and idiotic questions [I know I just repeated myself] from the mostly dumb and biased reporters? And do you view that as him campaigning or is he doing his job as president?
praise oj for
cutting up Nicole and ron goldman
Common sense says the west coast would see the virus spread before we would see it out east because of the interconnectedness with the Asia Pacific region. In fact the first US case of community spread was out west. We don't know if it's a different strain or if it's mostly factors like cars v. subways or just general density or weather that accounts for higher rate of spread in NYC. But the travel between APAC and our west coast must mean it spread there in late 2019 or early 2020.
Alinsky's rules. Especially ...
RULE 12: "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."
But also
RULE 4: “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.”
and
RULE 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”
Subways that were not disinfected, plus temperature, plus not wearing face masks, and lack of hand sanitizer.
Taiwan has basically escaped Covid 19 so far, and is only 80 miles from China.
1. In Taiwan they are disinfecting all the trains / subways, at least daily
2. Taiwan Required use of face masks
3. Coronavirus seems to do better when you have the right temperature. Or when indoor with AC.
4. Taipei at the entrance to the subway station has free hand sanitizer.
5. Taiwan started their actions December 31 on dealing with the virus.
Someone showed a couple of very interesting, very simple charts. One is the rate of death for COVID-19 vs. all the other major killers that kill more people every year that everyone keeps saying we don't shut down for: they're all pretty straight lines, or wavy lines, while COVID-19 is a big steep vertical climb: it's multiplactive. The other, with I can't find, is the rate of infection in countries that habitually use masks vs. ones that don't, and it's telling. The mask countries are doing better.
why didn't they put more money in small business and other priorities before
Nancy Pelosi has a super luxury, prestige stainless steel, Subzero Freezer and Refrigerator made in the US. Subzero also manufactures under the Wolf Name stoves and such.
They are really nice, and you can pick them up cheap on Craigslist. They do not have good resale value. Parts are not cheap.
I have a freezer that has a bad compressor I got for free, uses R-12.
Lurker21 said...
This is all coming after fifty years of increasing partisan polarization.
4/17/20, 10:40 AM
Ever notice how it is only ever Republicans that "pounce" or are "polarizing" or "seize" on something.
Liberals and Democrats NEVER EVER instigate anything. If they hold a protest "violence breaks out" like some sort of unexpected happening.
These times only seem more partisan or polarized because conservatives and Republicans have started to push back. Finally tired of trying to answer "When did you stop beating your wife?" questions and tired of trying to discuss issues based on lefty words and framing. Also ABSOLUTELY tired of our so called leaders selling out in order to get invited to the "right" parties and to try and be eaten by the press last.
As has been said before, I might not like Trump but I absolutely LOVE that he fights back!
With most presidents, it’s probably the other way around. Campaigning is something they have to put up with in order to get the prize.
For anyone who isn't a career politician, the Presidency is no prize.
I don't think many Governors even see it as such anymore.
Oh, here's the masks one. Sure, it's simplistic and merely correlation and far from dispositive, but it makes sense and highlights the nonsensical advice authorities propounded early on: obviously a mask will help control spread of infection, and if many people are wearing them it will slow it down. We were told otherwise in January and February by The WHO, CDC and our Surgeon General.
In other words, Inga ain't apologizing for nothing in spite of how dense she was concerning Russia Collusion over the past three years.
But I just wonder whether she still believes Trump collude with the Russians. I believe many Leftys still do.
Trump is beating Pelosi like a rented donkey!
Unfortunately, her braying ass isn't going anywhere.
Blogger Inga said...
Will Trump apologize for supporting the Governors in their mitigation policies?
He's encouraging them to do their job.
The buck stops with them. Our lockdown is extended beyond NY's.
Evers decided to extend lockdown 2 weeks before current one expires and coincidentally before task force guidelines produced.
As previous WI gov Walker posted:
Scott Walker
@ScottWalker
·
22h
Data from Wisconsin Hospital Association shows the peak of new cases was at the start of April. While we’re not out of the woods yet, we should look at trend over next two weeks before extending order.
Again,
After posting stats you felt support Evers' further lockdown through May, what statistical threshold do you feel would warrant easing?
"but the fact that some models that predicted much higher levels of infection and death proved inaccurate is neither here nor there."
From Cambridge Dictionary:
neither here nor there
not important, or not connected with the subject being discussed
I'm pretty sure at least some of the millions who have lost their jobs would consider those flawed models that were used to justify destroying all those jobs to be important.
But then, that's just me...
@Achilles:
The difference between New York and California was temperature/humidity and subways.
What effect heat and humidity will have is still not very well understood. One of the initial research findings suggesting it would slow in warmer, more humid environments came out of China back in early March. Subsequent research from another university in China drew the opposite conclusions. Overall, it's inconclusive. Some studies use modeling and others use labs to subject the virus to varying conditions approximating weather conditions.
There's still reason to be optimistic that spread will slow when the weather changes, but even if it does decrease infectivity, it may not decrease it enough to prevent substantial transmission. Clusters in south Florida, Louisiana, and East Texas aren't encouraging, and there's been a recent spike in Singapore, which currently has high temperatures and high humidity. Given that the new infections were mainly among migrant workers who live in dormitory complexes, it looks like physical proximity may be more predictive than weather conditions. But again, we don't know anything for sure, and we'll have to wait and see.
Bay Area Guy said...
“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.
The key is infections without any symptoms.
Extend that "50- to 80-fold" out to the current countrywide 680,000 and you get 34 - 55 million people with antibodies and a true fatality rate far less than even the flu. If that all proves to be the case, if we indeed wrecked our economy for essentially nothing, we'd have to have some kind of serious cultural reckoning the likes of which we've never seen before. We'd have to essentially collectively decide to dump our professional media almost entirely and probably get rid of most of our current "leadership". I'd be all for that.
"the fact that some models that predicted much higher levels of infection and death proved inaccurate is neither here nor there"
Of course it is. Models are useful in two ways: by thinking through your assumptions explicitly, you can check them against observations, and to the extent that they capture real trends, they can help you plan.
Checked against observations, the WuFlu models of death and hospital needs have been grossly wrong: even just a few months in, we know they have to be corrected. Used for planning purposes, they have fueled an outrageous overreaction. Just as an example, Power Line has been following the Minnesota fiasco: their "model" predicted 77K deaths, then downscaled with distancing to some 55K--whereas actual fatalities are in the low hundreds.
From the outset, the actual data showed a very clear pattern of risk and fatalities: isolating and protecting the vulnerable at reasonable cost should have been the focus of public policy.
"“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.
The key is infections without any symptoms"
WuFlu is so insidiously terrifying, most people don't even know they have it. What in the world are we going to do about the silent invader?
New site you can get down to a county level to see trends:
https://covid19.biglocalnews.org/county-maps/index.html#/
CA I am still incredibly frustrated on the lack of testing. 10% of the US population, but only 6% of daily testing. Good news is only around 3% of deaths. Riverside, LA, and San Bernardino county are now requiring masks.
I want to just scream about the bad advice on masks, from the so called Experts. It cost people lives in the US. I am now getting used to wearing a mask, something I never thought I would have to do.
Singapore only recently started requiring masks to go outside.
Models in this case were useless for several reasons, including prominently: garbage/unreliable/insufficient data, and a novel virus whose properties we don't understand well enough to model. The models certainly formed part of the basis for action, but primarily action under this degree of uncertainty is based on hedging tail risk as a result of common sense and an appropriate application of the precautionary principle: it's a deadly new virus, nobody has immunity and we have no vaccine or known effective therapies and we know we can take certain measures to reduce its spread. Does that mean everything we've done is sensible and justified? No, it does not mean that. But there's more than enough evidence of death and danger from this virus to have taken measures like shutting down international air travel early (transport is the main vector by which a virus spreads in a global world) and recommending extra hygiene and masks clearly would have been really, really helpful. You don't need models, suspect models based on other diseases and using insufficient and unreliable data, to tell you that.
@Kevin:
For anyone who isn't a career politician, the Presidency is no prize.
It is for people running for president.
Singapore only recently started requiring masks to go outside
The "mask" countries are countries where even during regular flu seasons or even just year round, many people wear masks. You see that in Chinatown in NYC. So it's not necessarily about mandating masks.
Jersey Fled: "But I just wonder whether she still believes Trump collude with the Russians. I believe many Leftys still do."
Indeed she does. She still believes in Trump/Russia collusion, Carter Page is a russian spy, the Trump tower meeting involved illegal activities, and on and on it goes.
if models are unreliable, maybe we shouldn't use them as a pretext to shut down the economy, if that's so, why were so many cases in Chinatown rhetorical,
"Speaker of the Hoax" needs ousted from her
Ice-cream castles in the air
But now she only blocks the sun
She rains and snows on everyone
So many things we would have done
But this clown got in our way
We were poorly prepared. We are poorly organized as a country to respond to this type of situation. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and unfortunately several of the dumber hack governors are all symbols of what makes smart, effective and timely action difficult in this country. But Trump was directionally correct: stopping air travel to/from China in January was bold, and had that bold assertion of sovereignty been followed up with a more complete enforcing of our borders, and basic common sense advice about wearing masks/washing hands/avoiding crowds, we probably could have avoided the incredibly costly national shutdown and economic destruction we've wrought. But most of our leadership class is in it for their own personal and partisan advancement, and not inclined to long-term thinking or planning, and were easily misled by health bureaucracy leaders domestic and global who told them what they wanted to hear.
I'm curious what version of science ascribes the significant discrepancies of the models evident across the states solely to amazing "social distancing".
"You don't need models, suspect models based on other diseases and using insufficient and unreliable data, to tell you that."
Models (especially really scary ones) do come in handy if you're in the news business and you want to attract eyeballs for the advertising you're hawking. So there's that.
Pity our rulers didn't take that into consideration before trashing their constituents' lives with their proclamations, but it appears wannabe tyrants have a hard time resisting the urge to play "God" when the opportunity presents itself.
Trump speaking Truth to Power-grabbers
...what we hired him to do.
No doubt senior health officials looked at models, and many of them advocated action on basis of models--it's what they do. It's also why they're not to be trusted or relied upon in a situation like this, although their opinions can add value. A situation like this calls for action based on sound principles of risk mgmt. There's enough data on these principles to have warranted aggressive, early action.
it's more like divining or other obscure arts
It's remarkable how quickly many of our senior leaders like Pelosi and Schumer went from the WHO party line of "there's nothing to see here" to "never let a crisis go to waste" mode when they had scary models to use to that effect. Hacks. Dangerous, lying hacks.
unfortunately, narciso, I would dump Ioannidis and Berenson into that same scientism bucket: their sin is the "reliance on data/wait for the data" or naive empiricism approach. But really, that's what you would expect from scientism: on one side, a bunch of nerds looking at models and getting terrified and terrifying everyone else, and on the other a bunch of nerds saying we shouldn't do anything because we haven't got sufficient data yet to make evidence based decisions. Useless.
HI @Nonapod,
Extend that "50- to 80-fold" out to the current countrywide 680,000 and you get 34 - 55 million people with antibodies and a true fatality rate far less than even the flu. If that all proves to be the case, if we indeed wrecked our economy for essentially nothing, we'd have to have some kind of serious cultural reckoning the likes of which we've never seen before.
Well, I don't wanna jump to the cultural reckoning, but on the larger point, you are spot on.
1. An important early paper in The Lancet, Huang et al. wrote:
A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients.
Great, these smart Chinese researchers discovered a "novel" virus in pneumonia patients.
2. Huang et al then described the clinical symptoms of 41 patients as:
By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT.
These symptoms aren't new. Pneumonia isn't new. Many different things cause pneumonia.
Nothing in Huang says this is a different kind of pneumonia. Quite the opposite:
Similarities of clinical features between 2019-nCoV and previous betacoronavirus infections have been noted. In this cohort, most patients presented with fever, dry cough, dyspnoea, and bilateral ground-glass opacities on chest CT scans. These features of 2019-nCoV infection bear some resemblance to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections.
So, here's the scientific fallacy: Just cause the virus was "new" to these researchers in January 2020, doesn't mean it was new. Working hypothesis -- the "new" virus has been around the block a few times, perhaps causing pneumonia, perhaps causing mild symptoms in folk undetected, to which folks have developed the appropriate immune response.
Not saying anything radical, just trying to harmonize California's LOW rates with New York's HIGH rates.
As always, I could be wrong.
It seems both Trump and Pelosi are under the impression the virus will be voting in November.
if models are unreliable, maybe we shouldn't use them as a pretext to shut down the economy, if that's so, why were so many cases in Chinatown rhetorical,
As the saying goes, all models are wrong. Given the dearth of available, there are simply too many unknowns to make precise forecasts. At best they give you projections under specific conditions (e.g. a specific hospitalization rate, fatality rate, etc.). That is why the projects are never a single number but a range from a lower bound to an upper bound, which can vary a great deal. The numbers are refined as new data comes in, and in the early stages of spread, even a day or two's data can have a substantial impact.
Given that we don't even have the ability to do widespread testing, we can't see much of anything with any great deal of certainty. We were faced with a novel virus that was fairly infectious and resulted in some not insignificant percentage developing severe symptoms. With no known treatments, a vaccine a ways away, and no ability to mass test, isolate, and contact trace the sick, there aren't many options left. The only significant way to slow down the spread of a virus that is transmitted from human to human is to reduce human to human contact.
Well, Gov Newsome may slow-walk California, but they can't stop Texas!
Texas governor announces initial plan to reopen economy
Money Quotes:
The restriction on elective surgeries is set to be lifted on April 22.....
On April 24, all retail stores can open for to-go business, but there will no indoor shopping allowed.
If the phased plan works, Abbott will announce on April 27 if he will lift the statewide stay-at-home mandate and allow restaurants, bars and theaters to open with social distancing in place.
According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there have been more than 17,000 cases of coronavirus in Texas, with more than 4,000 of those cases in Harris County. More than 400 people have died.
If the initial results from Santa Clara county are even close to accurate, it is very good news because it indicates the virus has a much lower case fatality rate than what’s been reported.
But those levels of immunity in the community are much, much lower than what is needed for herd immunity. If the virus is like the common cold in terms of lethality, it doesn’t really matter if herd immunity hasn’t built up, but it will be a problem if there’s a 1% or higher CFR.
dadkol,
While I appreciate your efforts to support Thomas Malthus, Malthus does not care.
"If the initial results from Santa Clara county are even close to accurate, it is very good news because it indicates the virus has a much lower case fatality rate than what’s been reported."
As the anti-panic faction posited from the outset. It had to be much less than what was "reported."
"But those levels of immunity in the community are much, much lower than what is needed for herd immunity."
That's not clear. Wittkowski speculates that Korea achieved herd immunity at seemingly low levels of infection.
Considering that the vast majority of carriers are asymptomatic, that few people under 40 experience any ill effects at all, and that herd immunity is a good thing for public health, we should now taper off social distancing, while isolating the actual risk groups. Old, sick, fat people: stay away.
Bring back sports with young crowds.
what's the connection between managing tail risk and Malthus' population bomb predictions? I'm stumped.
No need to argue, but i don't think there are rigid distinctions between "herd immunity" and "ordinary immunity." There's a spectrum of immune responses -- mostly dependent on the general health of the person and, age, of course.
But, bygones, here's Nancy-Pants criticizing the re-opening, which was blessed by Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci.
She is literally the worst person in America.
"we shouldn't do anything because we haven't got sufficient data yet to make evidence based decisions"
But we do have one very good meta-datum: WuFlu disproportionately attacks the old, sick, and obese.
That's what we should have focused on.
We now also have another very good meta-datum: all the initial models were built on bad assumptions, several outrageously so. Example: Minnesota "predicting " 77K deaths. Whether deliberate distortion and actual malice were involved will have to be part of The Reckoning.
Models are useful in that they can help us learn better from experience. Experience now tells us not to believe the doom guessed at by the "experts."
Meliga-Nancy's brain was infected with some serious dirty Schitt.
Dr. John Ioannidis wrote a paper on March 12 -- early in the pandemic - in the scientific literature, highlighting the categorical fallacies that were distorting the science and public policy response to Covid-19.
1. Fake News and Withdrawn Papers
2. Exaggerated Pandemic Estimates
3. Exaggerated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
4. Exaggerated Exponential Community Spread
5. Extreme Measures
6. Harms from NonEvidence-Based Measures
7. Misallocation of Resources
8. Lockdowns -- For How Long?
9. Economic and Social Disruption
10. Claims for Once-In-A-Century Pandemic
11. Comparisons with 1918 Flu
He concluded -- again this is March 12 -- as follows:
If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally
relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future.
The man figured it out early.
BAG, that's not a conclusion: that's mealy-mouthed problematizing by a guy who wants to be able to say "I told you so" whether COVID-19 turns out to be really bad or not that bad.
To paraphrase the brave Ioannidis: maybe we need to do all this stuff to protect against it, but maybe not. And if not, that maybe will not be so good next time there's a virus outbreak.
But really, there's not enough evidence of sufficient strength to justify evidence-based action or forming a strong opinion, but I just want to get my name out there because I'm a famous scientist and being a famous scientist means saying science-sounding stuff on TV when everyone wants to hear from famous scientists.
He literally wrote that paper with that "conclusion" that could be read either way so that when the models inevitably proved inaccurate, and things were either worse (unlikely) or better than predicted, he could take a victory lap. Fraud.
That's not clear. Wittkowski speculates that Korea achieved herd immunity at seemingly low levels of infection.
I was not aware that he had said that, but it makes no sense. Herd immunity by definition requires a large percentage of people to have antibodies, so that as infected people who are actively shedding virus come in contact with them will not contract the virus. If only a small percentage of the population has antibodies, then that dynamic isn’t happening.
Amending my 2:44 pm comment....I just realized, maybe he said that they had a seemingly low level of infection based on antigen tests, but he’s assuming a much larger number of asymptomatic people had developed antibodies.
Still doesn’t seem likely, because S Korea did really widespread test, trace, and quarantine. Not as much chance for all of that spread in that scenario.
"Will Trump apologize for supporting the Governors in their mitigation policies? Will he apologize for believing and listening to the scientists? Will he apologize for thanking the Americans who took mitigation seriously?"
Since Covid-19 is a real thing and the Russia thing wasn't (and I really wanted it to be), I'm thinking Trump won't apologize for something no thinking being would apologize for. The Russia thing though seems to have been a Cold War style disinformation campaign launched by the Russians to mess with the election process. It worked because many of us wanted to believe it, so questions about sources were swept under the bed. So yes, some of us owe Trump an apology for that. We don't owe him one for thinking he's an ass clown though.
@daskol,
Love ya, but you are way out on a limb here. Your guys (and I read them all), are smart fellows, but on this issue, they are sideline chit-chatters -- they haven't published anything on this "new" virus and they lack the expertise in this field.
Yes, we agree on the Travel Ban from China. It made sense then, it makes sense now.
But, on the rest, they merely assume the virus is dangerous, and then quibble over the scope of the lockdown. They don't do any of the heavy lifting on the front end.
Ioannidis is a Stanford MD and Epidemiologist author of too many peer-reviewed articles to count.
Ioannidis isn't superman - he's just better than the rest.
Malthus presented charts and wrote, effectively, if things persist as they are... terrible things.
He was wrong.
Who needs a $24,000 freezer when you have a tit that cold?
But those levels of immunity in the community are much, much lower than what is needed for herd immunity.
What if "herd immunity" is needed only for those susceptible? We still have a range of 20 to 30% infected, and most asymptomatic, from close exposure on ships.
Maybe the only immunity necessary is for those who are susceptible? Maybe the others have a difference in the ACE2 receptor needed for the virus to attach?
I think we are still in a setting where only those at high risk need sequester.
I was not aware that he had said that, but it makes no sense.
I read the interview with Wittowksi linked by College Fix, and I was confused by quite a bit of it. As best I can tell, the interview was conducted on either April 1st or 2nd. He said, "There are no more new cases in China and in South Korea." That isn't true. He also said, "Of all symptomatic cases. 2% of all symptomatic cases will die. That is 2% of the 25,000 a day. So that is 500 people a day, and that will happen over 4 weeks. So, that could be as high as 10,000 people." Unless I'm misreading him, I'm not sure how that "as high as 10,000" jives with the current death toll.
My understanding is that so called "herd immunity" requires 70% of the population to have antibodies for the virus in question. Whether that 70% is achieved through mass infection, mass vaccination, or some combination of the two is immaterial to the definition. So you'd need 330m*0.7 = 231 million people with antibodies in this country. Unless this virus has been around a heck of a lot longer than most people have been assuming it seems fairly unlikely that we've achieved that level of immunity yet (although I'd certainly be happy to be proven wrong).
Of course, all sorts of people have postulated that this virus may have indeed been around for a lot longer, maybe even years (if true that might let China off the hook). But at this point it's all just speculation. So it'll be interesting to see what happens as the antibody testing ramps up.
Chris Lopes,
You barely missed the mark. It was an attempted coup by people who had crimes to hide. They were hiding their crimes from the duly elected president.
And it's why the president's prospective appointees are held up in Senate committees. The senators have crimes to hide, also.
That's what you supported.
Chris Lopes said...The Russia thing though seems to have been a Cold War style disinformation campaign launched by the Russians to mess with the election process.
The "Russia thing" may have been cold war style but it was started by the Clinton Campaign and executed by the Obama Administration. Russia laughed at the idiots like Inga who lapped it up and used it to demonize other Americans. They didn't have to do anything.
Look inside yourself, Chris Lopes.
You support criminals and criminality because you are as Democratic partisan.
Shameful.
I thought of that MichaelK and I suppose it’s possible (and would be good news if true.) it seems like a stretch that it would lower the threshold by a tremendous amount though because it assumes that a huge proportion of the population is naturally immune.
Is this rhetoric helpful? If not, why not denounce it, Professor? You are certainly quick to denounce unhelpful rhetoric from the left.
A quick question: I haven't seen a word on this blog about testing, though everyone agrees it is the critical roadblock to reopening.
Right now, it appears that though Trump wants to shout for fast reopening, he doesn't want to do anything about, or take any responsibility for, the huge (estimated at between 5X and 20X) shortfall in testing that stands in the way. When asked, he either praises the testing we have, while ignoring or professing ignorance about the problems, or simply says it is the governors' responsibility. So with big national shortages of swabs, test kits, and reagents, with major allocation problems, and highly imperfect markets that do not reflect the public goods at stake, and with the feds having perspective, expertise, resources, and power, including emergency procurement powers, that could clearly make a difference, he is sitting back.
This is inexcusable...No responsibility for testing, even though its the key to reopening, because its better to let the governors shoulder all the responsibility than to actually take a political risk that could lead to better outcomes...but Steve M., I think it would be great if I could get my name on the checks!
As Professor Althouse might say, "What a performance!"
Birkel, if I haven't made it clear, I'm not that interested in what the models were projecting for COVID-19, and have been saying since the day Althouse posted about 11M people dying that these were idiotic projections. There is a strong argument for precautionary measures that does not rely on untrustworthy projections from models fed shitty data.
But, on the rest, they merely assume the virus is dangerous, and then quibble over the scope of the lockdown. They don't do any of the heavy lifting on the front end.
Ioannidis is a Stanford MD and Epidemiologist author of too many peer-reviewed articles to count.
Ioannidis is the ultimate sideline chit-chatter, while people like Bar Yam and Taleb, among others, provide a framework for taking precautionary action even though there is indeed insufficient data for "evidence based action." Ioannidis, with his PhD (most of those guys I posted are also PhDs), his 100s of citations and decades long career, could manage nothing more than a weak position casting doubt on the basis for taking this action, while still saying maybe such actions will be helpful. That is to say, no heavy lifting and nothing added to the global conversation or action plan beyond this nugget: we don't really know enough to say there's a scientific basis for taking precautionary action (although it may be a good idea). So if guys like Ioannidis were in charge, I guess he falls into the 2nd category of nerd: the one who waits around for data because there's insufficient data to take action. The other category are the ones looking at the outputs of their models and running around like chickens with their heads cut off. But they're both of a piece: useless when it comes to planning and taking action under conditions of great uncertainty. Talkers, not doers, when timely action matters most. That's why I think Ioannidis is a fraud: he took a weak position but presented himself as some sort of brave voice of dissent, but in reality he hedged his bets and actually didn't firmly criticize the precautionary actions being taken or recommend anything else.
This is not a science problem, it's a risk problem. Most scientists won't be of any help at this point.
Could someone point out what it was that Newsome did better th Coumo?
I think Newsome was just lucky. Less dense cities, magnitudes of fewer public transportation riders. Better run nursing homes - I don't know, but looks like it. Better weather. Healthier population? (Elderly, sick & obese are dying in far greater numbers than the young - middle aged and lower - and healthy)
Based on recent antibody test in Santa Clara country, it's estimated that between 48k and 81k residents have been infected with the virus - compared to 1,000 actual confirmed cases on the day of testing.
Blogger WisRich said...
Could Pelosi's video of all her designer ice creams in her freezer be her "Let them eat cake." moment?
“Let them eat Cake My Day from Ben and Jerry’s.”
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