Althouse: “The safety is the rarest, most difficult scoring play in the game. So why is it worth only 2 points?”

April 10, 2020

“The safety is the rarest, most difficult scoring play in the game. So why is it worth only 2 points?”

Yes, that’s what I want to know!

The argument that a safety should score 11 points, here, at FiveThirtyEight.

68 comments:

Guildofcannonballs said...: I hope the NFL fails and its players learn to code.

I hope nobody cares about why anything was founded upon whatever basis ever, because why? And don't these questions lead to answers non-non-white? So I feel, even as a white, justified in saying all pro-sports are, will be, but most-especially, have been racist, and ought to die like dirty stinkin' filthy racist die. By vigilance.

We got the internet, and they didn't.; 4/10/20, 6:19 PM
Leland said...: I hope the NFL fails and its players learn to code.

The XFL just did.; 4/10/20, 6:23 PM
rosebud said...: So since a successful PAT is rarer than a TD, it should be worth more than six points?; 4/10/20, 6:25 PM
rcocean said...: Safeties are two points because the Defense doesn't have possession of the ball, they merely tackled the ball carrier in the end zone. Tackling someone in the end zone is no more difficult than tackling them on the 40 yard line. Its simply a matter of geography - and represents offensive incompetence more than a difficult, amazing play by the defense.

That's why NFL teams rarely give up safeties.; 4/10/20, 6:27 PM
Yancey Ward said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/10/20, 6:29 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I also don't understand why the players don't play in tutus or wear onions on their belts.; 4/10/20, 6:29 PM
rcocean said...: If we're giving points for "difficulty" than a 3 point field goal from 30 yards should be less than a field goal from 50 yards. And running the kick off or a punt for a TD should be 11 points.

IOW, the whole argument is lame.; 4/10/20, 6:30 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Like old funny guy Iowahawk,
This is a link oh so funny.; 4/10/20, 6:31 PM
rcocean said...: Why are the guys at 438 so useless in discussing Football or golf? They're only good at Basketball.; 4/10/20, 6:31 PM
Jaq said...: I think it would force offenses to be so conservative near their own end zone that it would be as boring as baseball.

Just kidding. I love baseball, but football isn’t baseball.; 4/10/20, 6:32 PM
rcocean said...: There's only 538 when they discuss politics. when they discuss sports i dock 100 points.; 4/10/20, 6:32 PM
Jaq said...: Why not just put a bounty on the QB?; 4/10/20, 6:35 PM
Michael said...: Teams would just punt whenever they got the ball within their own 3-4 yard line. Boring.; 4/10/20, 6:39 PM
mockturtle said...: I think it would force offenses to be so conservative near their own end zone that it would be as boring as baseball.

Exactly, tim. There would be no pass plays at all from near the end zone.

And I love baseball, football, hockey and downhill skiing. And golf. And final four college basketball.; 4/10/20, 6:41 PM
Earnest Prole said...: I could not agree more. Football is essentially a game of land warfare. Pushing the enemy off the back edge of the battlefield while on defense should be considered every bit as valuable if not more so than doing it while on offense.; 4/10/20, 6:47 PM
tim maguire said...: I agree with rcocean. The safety is something that happens, not a play that gets called and executed. Plus, it’s not just 2 points. It’s 2 points plus possession, so it’s potentially worth most of those 11 points.; 4/10/20, 6:47 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: "Blogger Yancey Ward said...
I also don't understand why the players don't play in tutus or wear onions on their belts."

Do you honestly, sorry but ya'll see Yancey, not understand people will do what they get paid to do?

Sometimes it's big money, mostly it's just done small. Your voice is all confusingly derp.

I hope here at the Althouse blog it all makes some certian sort of sense.; 4/10/20, 6:47 PM
tim maguire said...: rcocean said...Tackling someone in the end zone is no more difficult than tackling them on the 40 yard line.

Arguably, it’s easier to tackle someone in the end zone than on the 40 yard line. If the offense has a broken play in their end zone, the runner is hemmed in. He has less room to scramble.; 4/10/20, 6:52 PM
Josephbleau said...: So why is rolling boxcars different than rolling snake eyes, the probability is the same.; 4/10/20, 6:56 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Why would we listen to Nerdy Nate Silver and band of unathletic nudniks opine on anything related to the manly sport of football?; 4/10/20, 7:04 PM
bagoh20 said...: More importantly, why would you chase around men in tight pants and tackle them to the ground just to let them go?; 4/10/20, 7:11 PM
Dave in Tucson said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/10/20, 7:12 PM
Gilbert Pinfold said...: Safeties also include forcing a QB to intentionally ground a pass while in the end zone. Only win my junior year in high school. 2-0 over Immaculata High.; 4/10/20, 7:14 PM
Rob said...: That's what you want to know? Not the meaning of life, whether there are multiverses, whether Tony Soprano died in the last episode?; 4/10/20, 7:24 PM
Mark said...: Two points AND you get the ball.; 4/10/20, 7:26 PM
rhhardin said...: I never followed football but was in the marching band a lot. It seems to me that the safety ought to give the band something too. They have to sit there and watch the game.; 4/10/20, 7:50 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Wow this Jew,, I din't self identify, omygod.

Oh he is happy to b3 thre.

Good for the ameirican education: noone ever noticed but the losers.

Sinnce ony loser s noticed: Well shit society will foremostly firsty fund them. They have the exytre,e loyalty.

You konw, loyalty like a pension.

They have that. Good for them. Great work. They all ought be recognized. For their contibution.; 4/10/20, 7:51 PM
Rory said...: I think part of the deal is that the defense wouldn't get the ball back. It seems that if the safety was 11 points, an offensive player would just fumble and let the defense recover for a touchdown.

There's a little play at the end of a game where a team leading by four purposely takes a safety in order to kick the ball far down field instead of running plays from near its own goal line. It's an elegant little tactic that would be lost with the rule change.; 4/10/20, 7:56 PM
steve uhr said...: 11 points for a sack ? That’s crazy. Two points plus the ball is just right; 4/10/20, 7:57 PM
Josephbleau said...: I think it is very modern and caring to give 11 points for safety during the game. We should all have security.; 4/10/20, 8:05 PM
Rory said...: "I think it is very modern and caring to give 11 points for safety during the game. We should all have security."

The all-European soccer tournament, the Europa League, used to reserve 3 spots for clubs from the most gentlemanly leagues of the previous season.; 4/10/20, 8:20 PM
Anonymous said...: The reason it’s such a rarely used play is exactly because the risk is so high and the reward is so low. It’s only used in the most desperate situations. If there were 11 points given it would be used in almost every post TD situation. Dumb.; 4/10/20, 8:32 PM
Original Mike said...: "The safety is the rarest, most difficult scoring play in the game. So why is it worth only 2 points?"

The rarity is a matter of circumstances. I fail to see the difficulty (other than the fact that the referees are loathe to call it).; 4/10/20, 8:33 PM
gspencer said...: The safety is more of a happenstance. It really can't be planned.; 4/10/20, 8:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Oops, too much beer. I confused safety with two or. conversion.; 4/10/20, 8:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Hookaaayy! Two point conversion.; 4/10/20, 8:37 PM
Birkel said...: If I wanted nerds arguing sports, I'd be watching ESPN right now.; 4/10/20, 8:46 PM
mockturtle said...: Birkel, if sports don't interest you, you can always skip this post and go on to the next. Right? Some of us here are climbing the walls because kids are home and they can't go to work, etc., and some of us--like me!--are going nuts for lack of live sports to watch! :-( Have a little sympathy!; 4/10/20, 8:55 PM
Birkel said...: I meant the 538 guys, not the Althouse commenters.
So many of you bring the funny.; 4/10/20, 8:55 PM
Francisco D said...: Birkel said...If I wanted nerds arguing sports, I'd be watching ESPN right now.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner!; 4/10/20, 8:56 PM
Birkel said...: I got in digs at ESPN and 538 but mockturtle took the worst of it?
My aim is poor.; 4/10/20, 8:56 PM
rehajm said...: An albatross is far more rare then a hole in one, yet we celebrate the ace as perfection.; 4/10/20, 9:08 PM
rehajm said...: Safety is the best looking ref signal. Walk like an Egyptian....; 4/10/20, 9:10 PM
Martin said...: Beyond the fact that a safety is largely the product of an offensive mistake by the other team and is not really "earned", the team that scores the safety also receives a free kick from the opponent's 20 yard line, almost guaranteeing they get possession around their own 40, and any decent offense should turn that into at least a field goal if not a touchdown.

If you figure possession near mid-field is worth about 3 point, statistically a safety is worth about 5, and can be as much as 10 (with a subsequent TD and 2-pt conversion).; 4/10/20, 9:11 PM
rehajm said...: There was that official that signaled 'giving him the business after the play' but that was not official.; 4/10/20, 9:11 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: Inquiring minds want to know: "Yes, that’s what I want to know!"

Actually I'd never given it a lot of thought. But I was surprised to discover that Our Hostess found this an intriguing question.

That Ann Althouse, just when you think you've got her figured out, she pulls one of these. Touche, Hostess. (Imagine the "accent grave over the 'e'" if you will.)

If you ask me, rcocean has it right at 6:27 and 6:30: there's no win to overthinking it. It's football, American style. BTW, where's all the rugby? FIOS seems not to carry it at all. I am disgruntled by this, disgruntled, I say.; 4/10/20, 9:21 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: tim in vermont asked: "Why not just put a bounty on the QB?"

It's been done. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans_Saints_bounty_scandal; 4/10/20, 9:25 PM
iowan2 said...: "The safety is the rarest, most difficult scoring play in the game. So why is it worth only 2 points?"

Its not a scoring play. Its the result of a defensive play. The question actually is, why would you award points to the team that doesn't have possession of the ball?. So even two points seems wrong. But then the offense is required to turn over possession of the ball by kicking to the defense.; 4/10/20, 9:27 PM
CWJ said...: 2 points because the scoring team not only gets the points but also the ball and field position. Next question.; 4/10/20, 9:27 PM
Kyzer SoSay said...: "Its simply a matter of geography - and represents offensive incompetence more than a difficult, amazing play by the defense."

Nailed it right outta the gate.; 4/10/20, 9:29 PM
WK said...: It’s almost like the rules are just made up. Where are the absolutes?; 4/10/20, 9:38 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Is it even concievable money won't go in?

Isn't it a duty to maximize potential gains, and demand the state bow to our elitism?

If not, why to 3gin have a state to start with; 4/10/20, 9:49 PM
Smerdyakov said...: Rory said it all.; 4/10/20, 9:52 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Althouse someday may understand others, gut having made millions ifo=of not.....

i ouls bd z bddcdf; 4/10/20, 9:56 PM
Lurker21 said...: Safeties were more common in early football and more important, since touchdowns counted for less than they do now. I guess they wanted more running up and down the field, so they increased the number of points awarded for a touchdown.; 4/10/20, 9:59 PM
AZ Bob said...: You not only give up two points but you turn the ball over with good field position. that means nine points.

Giving up a safety can still keep you in the game, especially if you are ahead.; 4/10/20, 10:02 PM
robother said...: Somewhere, Wrong Way Corrigan smiles.; 4/10/20, 10:03 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Donald Trump is the most American American, God Bless Donald Trump.; 4/10/20, 10:08 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: "Ask Jeff Zuckkor how he got his job.."; 4/10/20, 10:15 PM
Tom said...: It’s two points AND you get the ball on a free kick, which should be very good field position to score more points. Safeties are already worth a lot.; 4/10/20, 11:59 PM
Stephen said...: I appreciate the discussion about the safety, but I don't think it's the most difficult scoring play, if by difficult we mean the rarest. A failed one- or two-point conversion after touchdown can result in a two-point score by the defense if the defender manages to go the length of the field.; 4/11/20, 1:28 AM
Kevin said...: Rob, Tony Soprano absolutely dies in the last episode, I can explain it in excruciating detail if you wish. I see how audiences back then in the infancy of peak TV we’re confused, but if you watch it today it’s 100% clear with no ambiguity whatsoever.; 4/11/20, 5:13 AM
JAORE said...: Less common =/= most difficult. Sometimes those that live and breath statistics can not get past raw data.

[AND the ball]; 4/11/20, 6:14 AM
Skipper said...: First World Problem par excellance.; 4/11/20, 8:45 AM
Skipper said...: First World Problem par excellance.; 4/11/20, 8:45 AM
richlb said...: You also get possession of the ball again. That's the bonus that comes with it.; 4/11/20, 9:16 AM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: Why does a player collect $400 just for landing on Go?; 4/11/20, 11:40 AM
mikee said...: Why are players allowed to outfit themselves with helmets that cause concussions through other helmets? That is a more important question for the sport.; 4/12/20, 12:02 PM