April 11, 2020

"Seizing on new estimates of a lower-than-projected death toll, the president signaled that he wanted to start resuming business on some basis..."

"... after his current stay-at-home guidelines expire on April 30, and he announced that he would name a task force next week to develop a plan. But he also promised to listen to public health officials cautioning against a premature move to relax limits. In actuality, the decision on when and how to reopen is not entirely Mr. Trump’s to make because he never ordered it closed. The stay-at-home edicts that have kept the vast bulk of Americans indoors were issued by governors state by state. But the president did issue nonbinding guidelines urging a pause in daily life through the end of the month. And if he were to issue new guidance saying it was safe to reopen or outlining a path toward reopening, many states would most likely follow or feel pressure from their businesses and constituents to ease up on restrictions....  Lobbying groups have become more vocal about the need for the administration to create a plan for the reopening of the economy... Some business leaders have been particularly frustrated that the government is not being realistic about the economic consequences of the fight against the coronavirus.... Many experts caution that growth will be slow when it returns because people will be wary of resuming normal activities before the country has far more extensive testing. Without widespread confidence in returning to work or other public activities, any economic recovery could be tepid....  If the government tells Americans to return to normal life and infections rise again, that could wipe out consumer optimism and lead to a longer, more damaging recession...."

From "Torn Over Reopening Economy, Trump Says He Faces ‘Biggest Decision I’ve Ever Had to Make’/The president suggested he wanted to move soon, but he also promised to listen to public health officials cautioning against relaxing restrictions prematurely" (NYT).

ADDED: Here's the sentence that strikes me as terribly thought out: "And if he were to issue new guidance saying it was safe to reopen or outlining a path toward reopening, many states would most likely follow or feel pressure from their businesses and constituents to ease up on restrictions." I don't think Trump is talking about saying the whole country is "safe" and ready to "reopen." The article just got done saying that the decisions on how closed things need to be have been done by governors.

I've seen some pressure on Trump to take more one-size-fits-all, top-down actions, and he has resisted because it's a big country and conditions are different in different places. Similarly, when Trump moves toward reopening, he is, I presume, going to continue with this approach, supporting opening the places where the conditions are most amenable to returning to work. We'll ease into it, watching as we go, and proceeding with caution.

The Times says "people will be wary of resuming normal activities before the country has far more extensive testing," meaning testing to see who has the virus (or the antibodies). But another kind of testing is experimenting with opening the country back up in a gradual way, where conditions are best, observing how well it works, and moving forward learning from experience. This is the experimentation characteristic of American federalism.

306 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 306 of 306
Buckwheathikes said...

"Of course by re-opening the economy some people will catch the virus and die. But that happens every year due to the flu, other diseases and car accidents."

Yes, but at this stage of the game, it's different. You can't blame car accidents on Republicans and Trump. Nobody is going to buy that.

But if grandma dies because Trump and the heartless Rethuglicans rushed "ahead of the science" to open the economy for their billionaire buddies to get even richer and so they could go golfing and ride around in their yachts, CNN and every other broadcast, print and radio media is going to trumpet their heartless action by interviewing every crying grandkid for months on end. Maybe years on end.

They're salivating at the prospect.

The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed.

Night Owl said...

I think that there is going to be a BIG market for "made in America" items.

Agreed. I buy American-made whenever possible. It's currently not easy. That needs to change.

narciso said...

and if there is famine and riots, they'll be understanding

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Buckwheat, you’re not wrong, which is why the messaging has to articulate the harms that the lockdown has caused so far, that are going to dramatically worsen very soon. Which should sound quite familiar.

Those who are expecting a push to reopen - don’t overestimate the support for that. There are a LOT of people who have been successfully frightened out of rationality. Thanks social media!

Night Owl said...

The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed.

And if we end up in a deep economic depression waiting for a vaccine Trump is blamed and loses the election. Like Trump says,this is the toughest decision he's ever had to make.

JAORE said...

The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed.

So, if it takes a year or 18 months that's OK? Crap there will be more suffering from a foolish position like that than stopping the stay-in-place right now.

narciso said...

that is 'crypt keeper' Emmanuel's position,

Michael said...

Pants

The well to do, paid workers toiling from home, scared housewives, anyone afraid that “anyone can have it”. Remember that nearly 20 years after 9-11 there are still people afraid to get on an airplane.

Letting doctors run the country, believing bullshit models, having all media bang on about this young person dying or that hospital out of face masks has been a disaster.

No, unless you are n Manhattan or eastern NJ your hospital is not full of Covid19 patients, it is not short of ventilators, the ER is not a hellish hovel of death, doctors and nurses are not having nervous breakdowns in the halls.

Known Unknown said...

"I work in a grocery store and interact with hundreds of people a day. How is what I do safer then my sister-in-laws job where she works in an office of maybe 30 people of whom she may interact with 15 of in a day.. There are thousands of people who do what I do every day interacting with people and making sure the country is feed. "

Yes. This is the flawed logic of it all.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Buckwheathikes said...The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed.

I can't decide if you are serious or are a brand new-minted troll reincarnation of one of the previously banished trolls.

If serious, you are an idiot to think that people will sit/or stand for these lockdown, draconian, restrictions for any length of time. It is already wearing very thin, especially in areas that are NOT NYC or are in an area of dense populations that are not affected. The term "hell to pay" comes to mind.

Maybe some people, who have resources will last a bit longer, but there are many right now who are beyond the point of no return and have not the luxury of waiting, a year or more, for some miracle cure for a virus which hasn't proven to be much worse than previous flu seasons.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Those who are expecting a push to reopen - don’t overestimate the support for that.

Don't underestimate it either.

narciso said...

berensons first novel, the faithful spy, was about a French national of north African background this was in 2006, spreading plague he cultivated in a Quebec basement,

Known Unknown said...

"The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed."

The will be nothing left of this country if we wait that long. (I know, Howard, I sound alarmist) Another 12-18 months or so will lead to economic devastation, rampant poverty, crime off the charts, suicide, and higher mortality rates overall.

I Callahan said...

My question is this: why does it take a year or more to come up with a vaccine? Why couldn’t Trump, using his national defense powers, order all pharma companies to work together to produce a vaccine? If all are doing with full financial backing from the US government, why couldn’t a vaccine be created on an expedited basis?

MayBee said...

Our arms are so big where I live no one can catch a fish we can't hold up

Where I live, the photos are so big everybody's arms and fish look small.

Known Unknown said...

"My question is this: why does it take a year or more to come up with a vaccine? Why couldn’t Trump, using his national defense powers, order all pharma companies to work together to produce a vaccine? If all are doing with full financial backing from the US government, why couldn’t a vaccine be created on an expedited basis?'

There's a story from Oxford that one may be ready by September.

narciso said...

its the layer of red tape, that the fda mandates, like the cdc steering all the testing through them, I imagine, and you do want to take precautions if this is to be administered in massive quantitities,

never fear, the who is here, to tell us not so fast,

Known Unknown said...

I am fortunate that I can do my job from home. In fact, I was doing it for 2+ years from home prior to this happening. I had recently gone back to an office for about a month before we closed.

I do not own a company. I do not have to try to make payroll so others can live.

Night Owl said...

But if grandma dies because Trump and the heartless Rethuglicans rushed "ahead of the science" to open the economy for their billionaire buddies to get even richer and so they could go golfing and ride around in their yachts, CNN and every other broadcast, print and radio media is going to trumpet their heartless action by interviewing every crying grandkid for months on end. Maybe years on end.

The only people who will buy that bullshit are people who already hate Trump and wouldn't have voted for him anyway. The rest of us have learned to distrust anything the media has to say about any "Rethuglican".

Buckwheathikes said...

"You are an idiot to think that people will sit/or stand for these lockdown, draconian, restrictions for any length of time."

I'm not suggesting this is good, or desirable. Just that this is how it's going to be.

People are not going to be given a choice in the matter. If the government says non-essential companies cannot open due to a public health emergency, then they won't open. Courts will back the government. Those that defy orders will be arrested, fined, sued or shamed out of existence.

Remember, the federal government cannot force states to eliminate their quarantine's or lockdown orders.

Since Trump will be FOR opening the economy, Democrats will be AGAINST it. And the media will take the Democrats side; blaming Republicans for killing people by "getting ahead of the science" for the sole benefit of their heartless profit-hungry rich buddies.

That's going to be the attack line and it's going to be highly effective.

The only way to avoid that outcome is to deploy a vaccine, then re-open the non-essential economy.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

There will be nothing left to reopen by the time a vaccine gets here.

Last night a local news source interviewed three anonymous weed dealers. (It’s illegal where we live.) They said they are selling a pound in five days where it used to take a month. “And if you don’t got money, we’ll take things. We’ll work with you!” Translation: middle class people’s homes are going to start getting broken into. How long is that going to be tolerated?

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

The messaging has to be: we have learned to live with all kinds of risk in our culture. This is no different. Avoiding one kind of risk to a fault means disaster.

MayBee said...

I want a Venn diagram of the people who praised Europeans and New Yorkers for going right on with their lives. even though a terrorist attack had just gone on nearby, and those who are praising Gov Whitmer for "keeping us safe".

MayBee said...

It does not help the country that the hardest hit is New York, the center of the universe for Journalists. They will push for us to be closed as long as New York is a hot spot.

Buckwheathikes said...

"The messaging has to be: we have learned to live with all kinds of risk in our culture. This is no different."

That message will be countered by a competing message:

"Should Republicans have killed your grandma just so Hobby Lobby can open?"

That's going to be a compelling narrative and that is the narrative that the media is going to amplify.

Your message isn't going to even appear in the media anywhere. It's going to be 24x7x365 Republicans are killing people so their rich friends can buy their third yacht.

MayBee said...

Buckwheathikes said...

You're not wrong. The Resistance is going to be reduced to people who resist coming outside their own homes.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Houston Chronicle had a very sane and reasonable interview with a Texas A&M infectious disease specialist which laid out the phases of a pandemic including safe, well-planned reopening which “must happen as soon as possible.” I’m seeing a difference in our local media vs national.

MayBee said...

That's going to be a compelling narrative and that is the narrative that the media is going to amplify.

It will be like MADD got a hold of giving out liquor licenses.

BUT.....I think we will open up slowly and it will feel better than people will think. The only way to stop being afraid sometimes is to be pushed out of your bubble.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

No discussion of “we wait for a vaccine.” Just what must be done in the meantime to mitigate risk while reopening.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

That said, as I mentioned above, lots of people are pushing the hysterical “you can sit in your damn house until not one more grandma is in threat” BS.

Michael K said...

More reasons to open the economy.

We can still practice good hand hygiene, wear masks in public, and continue social distancing for the elderly and high risk, while we develop protective herd immunity for those most at risk. By the time the lockdowns began, COVID-19 had already been seeded in the US for months, limiting the effectiveness of the lockdowns in the first place as the virus was already widespread.

Several good reasons.

Michael K said...

MayBee said...
It does not help the country that the hardest hit is New York, the center of the universe for Journalists. They will push for us to be closed as long as New York is a hot spot.


Exactly. That's why Cuomo is on TV every day.

Buckwheathikes said...

"Houston Chronicle had a very sane and reasonable interview with a Texas A&M infectious disease specialist which laid out the phases of a pandemic including safe, well-planned reopening which “must happen as soon as possible.”


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/medical/article/Trump-s-push-to-open-economy-could-come-at-cost-15157855.php

Here is an excellent example of what the media is going to do, from the exact same Houston Chronicle.

"Trump's push to open economy could come at cost of lives"

Bay Area Guy said...

@DBQ sez in response to Buck

"Buckwheathikes said...The ONLY way to avoid this outcome is to wait until a vaccine is deployed."

I can't decide if you are serious or are a brand new-minted troll reincarnation of one of the previously banished trolls"

Similar reaction. How long did it take to get an HIV vaccine? (Answer - hasn't happened after 36 years)

Even Flu vaccines aren't mandatory. Yes, some vaccines are required for kiddies to go to school (which is a good thing), but that's as far it goes.

Shut down the economy until we get a vaccine that may or may not happen, that may or may not work, that may or not be mandatory?

Obviously, they haven't lockdown the canabis dispensaries yet.,,,,

CStanley said...

Availability of PPE is one of the most important factors. Medical personnel should not have to work without it, and people at high risk should be able to get an adequate supply or real N95 masks.

That’s the best stopgap before we have a vaccine.

CStanley said...

@B.A.G.
Flu vaccines allow healthcare workers to protect themselves and help provide that “herd immunity” you keep talking about.

Bay Area Guy said...

Doc K for the win:

We can still practice good hand hygiene, wear masks in public, and continue social distancing for the elderly and high risk, while we develop protective herd immunity for those most at risk. By the time the lockdowns began, COVID-19 had already been seeded in the US for months, limiting the effectiveness of the lockdowns in the first place as the virus was already widespread.

Can we send you up to DC to replace Dr. Fallacy?:)

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Yes the media is going to say that. So what? Governor Abbot says, people will continue to die of coronavirus just as they die of many other things. It’s sad but it can’t be prevented entirely, and we have to do what we can to minimize it while restarting public life. If we do not restart public life, _____________. We have to balance risks; this is what it means to be a society.

And let the chips fall.

Bay Area Guy said...

CStanley,

You have a keen grasp of the obvious.

Fondly, BAG.

ps vaccines are a part of herd immunity, what's the other part?

Friedrich Engels' Barber said...

Perhaps a contributing cause to media failure is the strong desire to reduce and to cover all activity as a one act or three act hero drama. It is preferred for several reasons: 1) a single protagonist story is easiest (read cheapest) to cover; 2) the media (read White House reporter) can position itself (and its ego) as a one-on-one counter-hero in the story; 3) using a person to represent a complex idea works for both tv screen and for headline, 4) it is the easiest story to relate, all the dramatic tropes have been around for centuries, and, let’s face it, many of our media pretty faces and clever word-slingers are, in fact, not the sharpest knives in the drawer, and 5) of course, they are addressing a distracted, mass media audience. Because preferred stories require a single protagonist, the media hates the idea of federalism. Yes, they can get some mileage out a President versus Governor feud, yes some local color can be a change of pace and a good quick-take of pathos or humor, but a story with a President and a committee of experts and a bunch of Governors – no, make it a story about Trump. He of course is happy to play along. There have been some attempts to make the virus the anti-hero, but it doesn’t work, even as a horror drama. A piece-work country-wide economic come-back story, that is a horror story for the press. Press conferences and a President, how happy they all are.

Buckwheathikes said...

"I can't decide if you are serious or are a brand new-minted troll"

To be clear, I am not ADVOCATING that the economy stay shut down. I'm just noting WHY it will continue to be shut down until a vaccine is distributed.

Democrats and the media are going to make SURE it stays shut down. Because they benefit from doing so.

Once there is a vaccine, Democrats lose that power. But not until then.

Mark said...

The total shutdown makes sense in hotspots like NYC or New Orleans, but not everywhere.

The problem is the high risk of infected people fleeing those locked-down hot zones to go spread the contagion to safe zones.

Jersey Fled said...

"The ONLY way forward safely is rapid deployment and widespread adoption of a COVID-19 vaccine.

We are still waiting on an AIDS vaccine after what, 30 years?

Mark said...

I do think that after the unpleasantness is over, the U.S. still needs to maintain war time production levels of N95 masks and ventilators and the relevant drugs and basic tests, etc. You want something for the economy to do? Build up the stockpile so that we are completely self-sufficient.

A billion masks is not too many. That is only three per person in the U.S. After this, everyone should have at least that many, allowing them to be reused every few days.

Earnest Prole said...

If Trump has no Constitutional authority to decree the country closed down, why would anyone believe he has the Constitutional authority to decree the country reopened?

Buckwheathikes said...

"We are still waiting on an AIDS vaccine after what, 30 years?"

Look, that's different. You as an individual can stop unsafe gay sex and sharing of needles. You can't stop breathing.

Night Owl said...

To be clear, I am not ADVOCATING that the economy stay shut down. I'm just noting WHY it will continue to be shut down until a vaccine is distributed.

Only if Trump is an idiot. If he's an idiot and keeps the economy shutdown due to fear of bad press (as if..) then he will lose in Nov. And rightly so.

If Dem governors want to fight him that's their choice. How good will they look if civil disobedience breaks out, with images of riots and cops attacking citizens just trying to survive, all thanks to authoritarian Dem politicians? Especially if test results come out that show the death rate of covid is no worse than that of an ordinary flu? Not good optics in an election year.

Thistlerose said...

Many people will not stay locked in their houses until we have a vaccine Some like Althouse may because the lockdown has not changed their lives much and they are not worried about money but people will not stay in the house and let their children go without or lose their home they worked so hard to get. The government may not end the lockdown but more and more people will disregard it to earn some money so they can pay for their groceries rather than wait in a miles long line for a government handout.

Here is just one example of one way I see people going out on their own. Alli has worked for years and a hair dresser but her salon got closed down because we don't need to have our hair cut or dyed. So she got a job at Shipt delivering groceries to people who don't want to leave their house. One of her customers decides to try and dye her hair at home and orders the materials from Shipt and Alli delivers it. She gets talking to the customer and says she use to do hair dressing for a living. Alli offers to dye the customers hair using her materials for 40 dollars. The customer who is use to spending at least 120 to get her hair done jumps at the chance. Word gets out through the grapevine that Alli will do your hair for 40 dollars if you supply the mats. How is the government going to be able to stop something like this?

People are creative and will find a way to do what they need to do to care for their families. The vast majority of Americans do not want to be wards of the government.

Buckwheathikes said...

"The problem is the high risk of infected people fleeing those locked-down hot zones to go spread the contagion to safe zones."

Also, take a look at global travel. In the months leading up to our current outbreak, literally millions of people were coming into the US from highly-infected regions of the world.

Folks, we're going nowhere. Fast. Until a vaccine is available. The entire country should be focused on producing that.

FullMoon said...

Howard said... [hush]​[hide comment]

Thomas why don't you quit sharing your resume with teases in dribs and drabs. just right up the whole thing put it on your pathetic blog and then link to it so that we can all see why you are so proud of yourself.


Very, very, very disappointed. Just the other day I pointed out that Howard was only(occasional) troll to never lose composure. Now joins the ordinary.
SAD!

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Thistlerose is right.

This is still a bit novel and there is still a sense of heroism in honoring the lockdowns and sewing masks.

Another few weeks of being cooped up with necessities getting harder to come by, property crime rising, jobs evaporated, and bank accounts depleted? You’ll have to literally shoot people in the street or weld their doors shut to continue compliance. Not sure on your police work there Lou in thinking Dems are going to cling to that.

gilbar said...

MayBee said...
It does not help the country that the hardest hit is New York, the center of the universe for Journalists. They will push for us to be closed as long as New York is a hot spot.


not only do the media elite live in NYC, lots of them (MOST of Them) are in risk groups
over 50 (over 60!)
heavy smokers (tobacco and/or marijuana and/or cocaine
high blood pressure

AND!
they are
RICH
Still working
able to go out if they want to ("i'm a media personality! you HAVE To let me in that park!")

If you're (relatively) unaffected by lockdowns, and STRONGLY affected (or at risk) of the virus
it makes perfect sense, for Ms Media personality to be in favor of continuing the lockdown
kinda like, if you're a Rich 61 year old retired law professor, that hates travel

Night Owl said...

The problem is the high risk of infected people fleeing those locked-down hot zones to go spread the contagion to safe zones.

You know what's funny about that? When Trump suggested shutting the NYC border Cuomo and other Dems had a fit. The Dems are all in favor of locking everyone down but will not contain the center of the illness? Is it any wonder that many sensible people have come to conclude that anti-Trump Dem politicians and their media lackeys are full of shit and not to be taken seriously?

Yancey Ward said...

Good fucking grief. There will never be more extensive testing for the actual virus- you have reached the practical limit. Just watch a video of the sampling process for fuck's sake- they can be found on YouTube! You won't be doing even half a million of these per day....ever. It appears that the nation's limit is going to be under 200,000/day.

What you can do extensively is monitor the temperatures of employees, but even this is more involved than most people actually know or remember- you still have to sanitize the temperature probe by one method or another, and you still have to change gloves every time (in the nasal swabs, you have to change all of the PPE). Widespread antibody testing will be more scaleable, but, of course, they are only beneficial in identifying people who actually have antibodies- you still need wide spread RT-PCR testing for those who are still negative for anti-bodies.

Testing isn't a panacea. Tracing at this point is a fucking joke.

Yancey Ward said...

"The problem is the high risk of infected people fleeing those locked-down hot zones to go spread the contagion to safe zones."

That is a problem regardless of whether one size is fitted over the entire country or not. The hotspots are still hotspots, and the non-hotspots are still non-hotspots.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Yancey--I have wanted to ask, but refrained because I don't want to get into a conversation with that one poster--we hear from some quarters, testing testing testing testing testing. Ok, well, and? What do we do with that information once we have it? "Testing" as a policy option is meaningless without the next steps it implies, is it not?

Buckwheathikes said...

"The hotspots are still hotspots, and the non-hotspots are still non-hotspots."

The not hot-spots BECOME hot spots. And likely have unsophisticated medical capabilities to handle it. That's the rub.

Yancey Ward said...

But the main point to take away is this- Trump didn't order the shut down, and he can't lift it either- this entirely in the hands of the governors and the other local officials like county supervisors and mayors. I wrote it the other day- there is a major first mover problem involved now. The politicians, especially the Democrats will want to wait until there are zero new cases- a thing that probably won't happen in any state of the US other than the very smallest ones during the next 2 years. At some point, you do have to reopen things before zero is hit- you really won't have a choice- you can't feed and house 330,000,000 people with half of the previous workforce on staycation- you can't even do this for 3 months.

Buckwheathikes said...

""Testing" as a policy option is meaningless without the next steps it implies, is it not? "

This is an excellent point, that should be expanded upon.

There are currently two types of tests, so we'll take each one separately.

Type 1: Caronavirus Test

This tests whether you currently do, or do not, have caronavirus. If you do not, you can still get it. If you do, even if you survive it, you are now a carrier of it and can spread it. And there's a LOT of anecdotal evidence that you can re-acquire it later - maybe when you're not as healthy. So this test isn't useful from the standpoint of answering the question of whether we should re-open the economy or not. It just counts who has it at one moment in time (which is useful to gauge how infectious it is, but that's about it.)

Type 2: Antibody Test

This tests whether you have ever had it, or currently have it. If you've ever had it, that doesn't mean you cannot RE-ACQUIRE it. If you currently have it, you're infectious. Again, this is useful from certain angles, but not from the angle of producing a stable workforce that isn't spreading the disease.

There's only ONE solution and that's a vaccine.

Buckwheathikes said...

And don't get me started on virus mutations. There's already 3 different COVID-19 viruses circulating.

Yancey Ward said...

"Testing" as a policy option is meaningless without the next steps it implies, is it not?

To be fair, the idea was to trace all the contacts and get them tested and so on; but the advocates of this are just lunatics with literally zero common sense. The numbers are just too large to do the tracing. Some have advocated automated cell phone tracing, but this doesn't overcome the need to test the traces themselves, which are multiples of the initial infectee, and multiples of multiples for the contacts' contacts. It is all a joke. The testing resources are being wasted in such efforts. The testing resources, from the very beginning, should have been dedicated to people who needed actual medical treatment, the doctors, nurses, and staff that treat such people, and then for the staff and residents of long-term care facilities. None of this was really done because of all the morons advocating "test, test, test, trace, trace, trace". I read earlier today that 70% of the New Jersey's long term care facilities are now infected with COVID. I predict that New Jersey will overtake New York in deaths by next weekend if this is true.

If you want to prevent the deaths, you keep the infected out of the hospitals that have other patient populations, and you work as hard as is possible to keep it out of the nursing homes. There are smart policies for doing this, but almost no state has implemented them- instead they focus on the easier stuff so they can all virtue signal their love of life. We are going to end up with 60-100K dead, and if the policians had just been smart and done the hard but effective work, it could have been cut in half.

Night Owl said...

The not hot-spots BECOME hot spots. And likely have unsophisticated medical capabilities to handle it. That's the rub.

"Unsophisticated medical capabilities"? Seriously? This isn't the 20th century.
You come across as a concern troll. If you're sincere, well, as those unsophisticated rubes in the south say, bless yer heart.

Yancey Ward said...

This disease is going to spread to the maximum population regardless of what we do in regards to shutdowns- you aren't going to get vaccinated in the next year- it doesn't work like that. We could lock the entire country down for the next year- I mean literally everybody, and the disease's incidence isn't going to go to zero in that time- all you will do is drive it down to a minimal level, and you will be faced with the exact same choice after that year- having to open before you reach zero new cases.

The only way off this ride now appears to be a widespread antibody test that shows 15% or more of the population has already been infected. That might serve to tamp down the fear enough that we can start moving forward. Without that, I doubt any governor moves forward first.

Yancey Ward said...

I will point out that just based on the last three week's unemployment applications, the rate of unemployment will be at least 10% (surveys for this number end on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week). I see no reason to expect initial claims to fall much from the last two week's 12 million total number. So, if the lockdowns continue to the end of the month everywhere, you will see 25% unemployment in the May figures released in early June- and probably higher.

The economy does have to reopened in the low infected areas- there is no other option, and there never will be.

Buckwheathikes said...

"unsophisticated medical capabilities"

Many medical facilities are "unsophisticated" in that they are unable to treat certain kinds of patients.

For example, it is not uncommon for certain patients suffering trauma to be re-routed to a Trauma Center where there are sophisticated equipment and skillsets available.

There are thousands of hospitals in the United States that have 1 or maybe 2 ICU beds; and that's what they can handle. That's what is meant by "unsophisticated."

Original Mike said...

"I buy American-made whenever possible. It's currently not easy. That needs to change."

T.H.I.S.

I really hope this leads to the Great Decoupling. I am not optimistic.

Buckwheathikes said...

"The only way off this ride now appears to be a widespread antibody test that shows 15% or more of the population has already been infected."

Your implied assumption is that someone who has been infected and survived it is therefore now immune to reacquiring it and re-transmitting it to others. That's simply not shown to be the case at this stage.

Here's a primer:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/questions-remain-covid-19-recovery-guarantee-immunity-reinfection/story?id=70085581

Yancey Ward said...

Concern troll it is then, buckwheat.

If I grant that immunity isn't guaranteed, then the shutdowns make no sense whatsoever- we are just fucked and the virus will kill whoever it kills. Time to reopen.

Buckwheathikes said...

OK. If presenting fact-based responses and providing you links to experts in the field is "concern trolling" then I'm guilty.

From the linked article:

"Although scientists are still studying immunity among people who have recovered from COVID-19, current evidence suggests that previously being infected may not be a guarantee that you won't get sick again. One possible explanation for this could be that the virus does not elicit a strong enough response to "imprint" a memory on the cells of the body's immune system: white blood cells called B cells and T cells."

"Poland and Jennings each highlighted the urgent need to develop effective treatments or vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection ..."


Buckwheathikes said...

By the way, the time to re-open was never. The economy should never have been closed. But now that it is closed, it will stay closed due to the politics of the situation.

Original Mike said...

"that doesn't mean you cannot RE-ACQUIRE it."

It probably does.

Yancey Ward said...

Fair enough, Buckwheat, but go reread all your comments on this thread- maybe you can see what I and one other commenter were noticing.

You won't develop an effective vaccine if immunity isn't strong from actually having the disease itself. If the virus is mutating like other coronaviruses, then treatments won't be effective either- there is a reason we don't have good treatments for colds and flus.

Birkel said...

I'll bet just a few short months ago you could have found Democratics who thought Korematsu was a bad decision. I mean, the thought of telling people where to go and what to do? And the idea that the government can sequester us?

And what about the 13th Amendment? Leftist Collectivists were probably willing to say we were not chattel property.

To say nothing of the rights we ought to be able to exercise that are given by God and recorded in the First Amendment.

When will those Democratics return? Or was all of that bull shit lip service?

BAMN, am I right?

CStanley said...

You won't develop an effective vaccine if immunity isn't strong from actually having the disease itself.

Pretty sure this is incorrect.

Post infection low antibody levels probably indicate people who got exposed to a light viral load, got a mild (possibly asymptomatic) infection, and cleared it.

The vaccine would need to induce a greater response in order to be protective. Vaccines use adjuvants and attenuated viruses to do that.

Birkel said...

Buckwheat summarizes:
Democratics have the power if the economy stays closed down and if it doesn't.

Me:
Thank God other commenters are quicker to recognize trolls now than before. Saves me a lot of time being first to type the obvious.

CStanley said...

Actually with a newer biotech approach, maybe an adjuvant isn’t even needed:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/microneedle-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-mice

Kai Akker said...

We are going to end up with 60-100K dead,

No, no, Yancey! No, can't you read? We are only going to have 20K or fewer deaths and none of them are really real. They really died of drowning while they were struggling with the pneumonia. And then some devious liberal counted it as coronavirus, not their underlying hypertension. Everyone is just faking it on the numbers, it's another hoax by Them.

Yancey Ward said...

CSTanley, I can't think of a single vaccine that works effectively on a virus for which naturally acquired immunity isn't already strong all by itself, but I can think of many that aren't terribly effective because the human body doesn't have a strong ability to build immunity effectively either- these are the things we can't vaccinate against in general. However, remember, the antibody tests themselves can be tuned to differentiate weak and strong signals, and I assume they will be, so we will learn a lot in the coming weeks....I hope.

Yancey Ward said...

Yes, Kai is one of those trolls, I just haven't figured out if he is new, or just a new account for an old commenter. The commenting style doesn't immediately seem recognizable to me, nor the subject matter. I tried to figure out if one of the banned commenters was into kayaking- anyone remember?

Mark said...

People can wear all different sorts of masks, Yancey. Who is under this one? There will inevitably be a tell with this person.

Kai Akker said...

Yancey, you must be kidding. Sarcasm at an apt target makes one a troll?

Yancey Ward said...

It wasn't just one comment, Akker.

Kai Akker said...

OK, Ward. But you are completely wrong on all your assumptions.

Mark said...

It's enough to already be bored.

CStanley said...

@Yancey- that may be so but the data I’ve seen so far doesn’t show that Covid doesn’t produce a strong response in general, just that there is a sizable subgroup of people who only had a weak response. My hypothesis is that this group corresponds to low viral load exposure, not to some specific feature of the virus-host interaction.

Birkel said...

If there are different strains, the testing, the, testing crowd will never be satisfied.

Viruses mutate.

bagoh20 said...

I would like to add the following to the list of things required before we go back to work,

Grow a pair.

Actually we don't need much more than that.

Jersey Fled said...

Blogger Buckwheathikes said...
"We are still waiting on an AIDS vaccine after what, 30 years?"

Look, that's different. You as an individual can stop unsafe gay sex and sharing of needles. You can't stop breathing.


The point, knucklehead, is that we could be waiting a long time for a vaccine. How long are you willing to wait?

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Dr. Stanley (as I recall anyway) - I respect your opinion and measured way of expressing your opinion. What do you think should be done?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Buckwheat says: .Your implied assumption is that someone who has been infected and survived it is therefore now immune to reacquiring it and re-transmitting it to others. That's simply not shown to be the case at this stage.

And it is simply not proven to be NOT the case either.

We are destroying the economy and the lives of millions of Americans, based merely on guesses.

You 'might' get Corona Virus. You 'might not' get Coronoa virus. You 'might' get a mild case and recover as many have. In fact more people will NOT get sick or will get light cases than those who become deathly ill. A tiny minority of the population will die. The MAJORITY of people will not and want to be able to continue living a life worth living.

You are willing to bet the future's of all those majority of people on the unknowns and unproven guesses versus the 'certain' economic destruction of an entire country and actually most of the world?

I'm willing to take MY chances of getting the flu, in order to not destroy the future of my children and grandchildren. I'm willing to bet that most people who actually have families and children feel the same.

Buckwheathikes said...

"You are willing to bet the future's of all those majority of people on the unknowns and unproven guesses ..."

To be clear; I am not advocating that the economy be shut down. It should never have been shut down.

But now that it has been, the Democrats are going to KEEP it shut down because that's politically useful to them. If it is opened back up, in the absence of a vaccine, many more people are going to die of an easily detected disease.

The only solution to this political problem is a vaccine.

Joanne Jacobs said...

Reopening the economy isn't "business interests" vs. regular people. It's people who've lost their jobs and the self-employed vs. . . . Who wants to stay closed longer than necessary? I work from home and rarely eat at restaurants, but I don't want to see others impoverished. And I'd like to get a haircut and get my missing tooth replaced.

Ken B said...

Kai Akker asks
“ Yancey, you must be kidding. Sarcasm at an apt target makes one a troll?”

You are new here I think. Yes, they really do think that way.

Mark said...

This much is certain --

What will be, will be.

There are troubles enough for today to worry about all the quantum possibilities of tomorrow.

Do what you feasibly can. Be prudent in all things. And then you just got to take the risk of getting out of bed and leading a life.

Ken B said...

What next after testing?
Wow. How stupid can you get.
Take a guess Pants. Hint. We only want to isolate infectious people and we want immune ones to go where they want.



Ken B said...

“ The economy does have to reopened in the low infected areas”

And can be, with testing and selective isolation. This has been discussed quite often here. Fortunately tests are finally becoming available.

CStanley said...


Dr. Stanley (as I recall anyway) - I respect your opinion and measured way of expressing your opinion. What do you think should be done?

Thanks Pants I really don’t think I’m qualified but can give you my internet armchair epidemiologist opinion.

Starting with assumptions and biases....I know if I mention the models I’ll get lots of backlash, but there are some things the models are getting right I think...the general timing of peaks in different areas (they just initially far overestimated the degree of the peaks, and I’ll comment more on that in a minute.)

My interpretation is that the lockdowns have worked far better than what the experts predicted. I have a theory about that too. The virus initially looked like it was much more contagious than the flu, and scientists make assumptions about viruses like that (that they find their way into the host and initiate infections very aggressively.) I think the assumptions in this case were wrong and instead the Covid superhero ability is stealth- it spreads because people are shedding virus long before they know they are sick, or in some cases through the duration of an infection without them ever showing symptoms. So enforced isolation has (IMO) worked very well because normal measures of peopleself I isolating when they’re sick don’t work in this case.

All of that to say that I hold the view, unpopular here, that this really is a dangerous pathogen and the measures taken have helped greatly even though I also agree with you and others that those same measures are way too costly.

So I think we have to gather as much data as possible on which specific measures help the most, figure out plans to help people who need to continue to isolate (doing so becomes much harder for them once restrictions on everyone else let up.) Also figure out which locations are still on the upswing and keep things locked down a bit longer there, and gradually reverse restrictions in places that are well enough on the downside. That would probably initially take us back to the point before shelter in place, when nonessential businesses can operate but are advised to keep people distanced as much as possible.

Mark said...

"For what profit comes to mortals from all the toil and anxiety of heart with which they toil under the sun?
"Every day sorrow and grief are their occupation; even at night their hearts are not at rest. This also is vanity. . .
"Better is one hand full with tranquility
than two with toil and a chase after wind!"

Thistlerose said...

I have a question for the people who believe that we cannot open up the economies until we have a vaccine, how well do you know your neighbors and what are you willing to do to help them so they do not lose their house? Is the responsibility for the economic as well as the physical health of your communities just the governments job or should you be willing to take some small risk to help your village survive the virus? This is where I think we will see a big difference between blue areas and red areas. If you live in a blue area it's the government's responsibility to help the poor, sick and anyone in need. In red areas the community will get together and lend a hand where needed. How many times have we heard of the neighbors of a sick farmer getting together to plant his crops so he will still have the farm when he recovers. In a large city if you get sick you are told to go on Medicaid and welfare and it will support you.

I think this is a time where we need to decide what type of people we are. Are we going to hole up in the house and not care about the rest of the people around us or are we going to take a small risk and work with the other members of our community to ensure it does not become like Venezuela. Because if one third of the people of working age are not working and earning any money that's where we are headed.

We know who is at most risk and needs to be quarantined. We know what precautions need to be taken by people who are not at great risk. Thousands of people everyday take these precautions everyday and go to work to provide "essential" services. It's time to let anyone who wants to go back to work do so before we as a country lose everything.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

The only solution to this political problem is a vaccine.

Fuck the political problem. We have a much bigger problem right now.

Plus...there are many more solutions to a "political" problem than you can imagine. Many of them will be quite violent and not very palatable.

One solution, which is recognized by Thomas Jefferson "the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

I suggest you stop obsessing about what the Democrats might "think" and worry more about what will happen when the bottom falls out of our civilization. Civil society is a very temporary and fragile condition. Waiting in a forced lock down in a police state, with no income or food, for a year or more will guarantee Jefferson's prediction to come true.

Mark said...

"When the clouds are full,
they pour out rain upon the earth.
"Whether a tree falls to the south or to the north,
wherever it falls, there shall it lie.

"One who pays heed to the wind will never sow,
and one who watches the clouds will never reap.

"In the morning sow your seed,
and at evening do not let your hand be idle:
"For you do not know which of the two will be successful,
or whether both alike will turn out well."


In other words, do not let worry consume you. Be prudent, but live your life without being paralyzed by tomorrow.


"There is an appointed time for everything,
and a time for every affair under the heavens.

"A time to give birth, and a time to die;
a time to plant, and a time to uproot the plant.

"A time to kill, and a time to heal;
a time to tear down, and a time to build.

"A time to weep, and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn, and a time to dance. . . .

"What profit have workers from their toil?

"I have seen the business that God has given to mortals to be busied about.
God has made everything appropriate to its time."


walter said...

Ray - SoCal said..
...
15. Disseminate best practices for medical treatments
----
Last on the list? I'm surprised how far into this thread I had to scroll to see any mention of that. We have a head start on that (perhaps prophylactics too) in addition to the usual PhIII randomized trials that give Fauci warm fuzzies.
An approved vaccine down the line might not be perfectly effective.
The equation changes when the prospect of getting and succumbing to this are reduced. Hunkering down till elimination is ridiculous.

bagoh20 said...

Can you imagine how long it would take to test 330 million Americans? And, that implies that nobody comes into or returns to the country while it's done. Did you remember to factor in our very leaky border that so want to be open. Think about the logistic of possibly infected people, and every single one of us getting in line with them waiting our turn. So how long would that take?

bagoh20 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Birkel said...

I'm all in favor of isolating people.
It should start by people keeping their dumb ass opinions about how much ruination of other peoples' lives they should have to endure.
Isolate that shit.

Self-isolation is best.
It should start in Canada.

heyboom said...

Yancey Ward said...

you still have to sanitize the temperature probe by one method or another

Actually, there are infrared thermometers that hospitals use and even one of the Japanese markets here in Gardena. No touch, just file on through. Instantaneous readout, too.

«Oldest ‹Older   201 – 306 of 306   Newer› Newest»