April 20, 2020

"Oil that is scheduled to be delivered in June fell 12 percent Monday to about $22 a barrel, but at the same time a benchmark to be delivered next month was essentially deemed worthless."

"Owing largely to a quirk in the way that oil prices are set, the May benchmark actually fell into negative territory, suggesting people who had oil to sell were willing to pay to have it taken off their hands. The problem is that the United States is running out of places to store its oil, which is already being stockpiled on barges at sea and in any nook and cranny companies can find in their facilities. Traders are now worrying that even this space is running out. Under futures contracts, West Texas Intermediate — the American benchmark for oil prices — is delivered to Cushing, Okla., but investors are worried that there will be no place there to put it."

The NYT reports.

49 comments:

Bob Boyd said...

Fox Business was reporting negative $36.73. Does that include the barrel?
If so, I'll take some.

Bob Boyd said...

They could stack barrels of oil in the empty hospital wings.

Drago said...

Remember, Ken B claims we have avoided a costly economic collapse by shutting down our nation.

Dave Begley said...

Prices are sticky downwards. Don't expect a .50 gas anytime soon. Oil has to be refined and delivered.

But this really is a disaster. No one has seen anything like it.

Jupiter said...

As a general rule, when something we use a lot of becomes cheaper, that is a good thing, and people generally recognize that. However, it has long been the case that decreases in the price of housing are reported as very bad news. Apparently oil has now joined the list of things the press would like to see cost more.

Tom T. said...

They should be dropping oil from helicopters!

jaydub said...

Looks like AOC will defacto get her green new deal in place soon since the shutdown is bankrupting the oil companies.

Tom T. said...

More substantively: I've been driving little and buying a ton of groceries, since I'm now also bringing food to my mother and brother. This means I'm fat as a tick with gas reward points. With prices already so low, I filled up my tank this past weekend for 40 cents a gallon. The whole fill-up cost me $6.

What with today's news, though, now it sounds like I should have waited.

Static Ping said...

When I was in college, I was warned by a finance professor that, unlike buying stocks or bonds, buying commodity futures had a risk of having the stuff dumped on your front lawn when the contract came due. That's what we are seeing now. The speculators with no storage space just discovered that there are only so many barrels that will fit in their garage.

Browndog said...

This isn't funny.

Roughcoat said...

In Illinois, this means gas prices will increase. Because whenever oil prices fall the Democrats who rule Illinois increase the gas tax.

Thank goodness I moved to Indiana.

Roughcoat said...

There are three things that are certain in this life: death, Illinois government corruption, and the German counterattack.

Bay Area Guy said...

Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana need to expedite reopening. Hopefully, other sane states will follow suit.

Calypso Facto said...

Dave Begley said... "Prices are sticky downwards. Don't expect a .50 gas anytime soon. Oil has to be refined and delivered."

Plus $.51/gal federal & state tax in Wisconsin ...

J. Farmer said...

It doesn't help that the massive drop in demand comes right on the heels of Saudi Arabia's effort to bankrupt US fracking. Between low interest rates and a drop in commodity prices, now would be a great time for the US to do a huge fiscal infusion, probably somewhere on the order of several trillion dollars.

Richard Dolan said...

More money is made during bear markets, and the oil patch is definitely in one now. So place your bets and hold on for a rocky ride.

jaydub said...

Blogger Roughcoat said...

"There are three things that are certain in this life: death, Illinois government corruption, and the German counterattack."

According to my pop the three sure things are death, taxes and nurses.

Michael K said...

I thought we had a strategic reserve in salt caverns. Why not fill that if if it is not full now.?

Leland said...

Why not fill that if if it is not full now.?

Indeed

Unknown said...

- $37 for May contracts

And then what?

With no planes, who will will buy June contracts for July delivery?

The trading market used to be refineries just putting out contracts themselves. Chicago started the speculation in 1983 https://www.nytimes.com/1983/03/28/business/commodities-trading-crude-oil-futures.html

What this shows is how quickly supply/demand problems can be realized.

Unknown said...

1983

But the significance of the new crude oil futures market goes far beyond the competitive race between the two exchanges. If successful, the new markets could profoundly change the way crude oil is priced and traded on the world market.

''Crude oil futures markets are logical now as never before for several important reasons,'' said John H. Lichtblau, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Bureau Inc.

''For one, there are now more sellers than buyers of oil because of the worldwide surplus,'' he noted. ''This has led to price volatility and uncertainty about the future, and commodity futures markets cater to those who seek insurance against price volatility and uncertainty.''

More important, Mr. Litchblau said in an interview yesterday, the new crude oil markets would provide the first reliable mechanism for discovering prices for crude oil in the free market. ''We could see these markets provide the real 'official' spot, as opposed to negotiated, prices for the first time,'' he said.

Wince said...

Trump started refilling SPR last month.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/13/trump-to-fill-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-to-the-very-top

Notice Trump created more room earlier while critics decried the move.

The reserve has a storage capacity of 713.5 million barrels, with some 635 million barrels now buried in underground salt caverns along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

“While filling the SPR will not materially offset the tidal wave of new supply hitting the global oil market, it makes total sense from a national security and budgetary perspective,” said Bob McNally, founder of consultant Rapidan Energy Group.

“Better to buy low and before an emergency than the other way around,” said McNally, who oversaw the last major fill-up of the reserve as a top oil official at the White House during the George W. Bush administration.

What was not immediately clear was whether the purchases require congressional approval. The reserve can be filled at a rate of 225,000 barrels a day for most storage sites, the Energy Department said in 2016.

In recent years, Congress has used the stockpile as a piggybank for government programs, and Trump had previously approved reducing it by half, something that critics opposed even as the shale revolution allowed the U.S. to reduce its reliance on imports.

If the government filled the reserve to capacity at today’s prices, the purchase would cost about $2.6 billion and could generate about 430,000 barrels-a-day of demand over approximately six months.

“We’re going to fill it right up to the top -- saving the American taxpayer billions and billions of dollars, helping our oil industry,” Trump said on Friday.



According to this pie chart of US Oil consumption by sector, everyone should kick-off the opening with a nice long drive (light-duty vehicles 42%).

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/5-US-Oil-consumption-by-sector-10_fig3_242152407

It would be a good kick-off to the re-opening.

rcocean said...

LOL! Remember in the 70s, 80s, and 90s "the experts" kept telling us we'd run out of Oil? Peak Oil. Time to build synthetic oil plants and windmills.

rcocean said...

My social studies teacher in 1982 was telling us the world would run out of oil and precious metals by 2000. We had to get to Zero Population Grouth and practice recycling.

tommyesq said...

Who knew that "peak oil" would end up being us reaching the peak of our ability to store it!

Josephbleau said...

A genius once told me we could not drill our way to energy independence. I think that was “Science” so we must believe it uncritically.

Gahrie said...

The key is to keep the US oil producers out of bankruptcy if possible. Buying the oil from them and storing it in the reserve would be the absolute best way to do this, so of course the Democrats in Congress won't go along. Letting them rent storage space in the reserve merely postpones the problem for a short period of time.

Birkel said...

The NYT either does not know or does not care to know the truth. You cannot but the oil future the day before they are available. The futures cannot be bought today, as they go on sale tomorrow.

If a thing cannot be sold on a given day, then there is no supply and no demand and no price the day before the oil futures go on sale.

But everybody knew that, right? I mean the part about the NYT being ignorant.

traditionalguy said...

I recall arguing 1n 2007 with some China International Trade guys on a Crystal cruise that were Costco Executives and one's wife a Chinese Hong Kong Banker. I interjected that there was no such thing as Peak Oil. After that, they wrote me off as an insane fool. The Oil Price was the assumed basis of International Trade. But that's gone with the wind.

Keep your gold boys. The Gold Standard will rise again.

Jeff Brokaw said...

We really are in the best of hands, aren’t we? This lockdown thing is just going swimmingly.

And only 22,000,000 out of work. So far.

Amexpat said...

I don't understand why the US doesn't impose a tariff on imported oil. It would accomplishes three things; help US oil producers, raise revenue and have an environmental profile by making alternative energy more competitive

I assume that the US strategic reserves are full. If not, someone should lose their job.

Gahrie said...

I assume that the US strategic reserves are full. If not, someone should lose their job.

They're not. The plan right now is to let oil producers rent some of the empty space in the reserve. Republicans wanted to allocate money to buy oil and store it in the reserve but the Democrats blocked it.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

The key is to keep the US oil producers out of bankruptcy if possible.

Wasn't that what they said about GM? I'm not saying you're wrong, and I don't wish bankruptcy on anyone, but the people and equipment won't vanish if that happens.

Browndog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gahrie said...

Wasn't that what they said about GM?

What's being discussed isn't a bail out. The plan was to buy oil and put it in the strategic reserve to have in time of need. Later on the oil can be sold (hopefully at a profit) or used.

Paul said...

gas can't go to much lower cause...

In Texas, gasoline and diesel fuel are subject to a 20-cent tax per gallon. In addition, the federal government imposes taxes of 18.4 cents per gallon on gasoline. I.E. taxes alone add 38.4 cents a gallon. So I can see $1.00 a gallon but not much less.

Then they will stop pumping till the surplus runs out.

Note, California taxes it at 61.20 a gallon!!! And that don't include the federal 18.4 cents a gallon!!! So in California 79.60 cents a gallon is pure tax!

Rob said...

I thought West Texas Intermediate was the last school Beto O'Rourke attended.

Yancey Ward said...

I still haven't quite figured out how the contract went so negative. Why would you have to pay someone to take your contract just to avoid taking delivery? I must be missing something- couldn't you just eat the loss (the price you paid for the contract in the first place)? Why would you have to throw money away to avoid taking delivery? Is there contractual penalty for not taking delivery? Do you get kicked out of the Mercantile Exchange? Or did the owners simply already have oil stored in Oklahoma that has storage costs that make paying $40,000 to get rid of 1000 barrels of oil worth it? I haven't yet seen an adequate explanation.

rhhardin said...

The nightmare is that you wind up with several contracts of frozen pork bellies delivered on your lawn.

rhhardin said...

The way a contract is delivered is generally to buy it back and sell your stuff on the open market, using the profit or loss on the trade to make up for whatever the price you locked in might be.

Yancey Ward said...

In any case, as I was watching the May20 contract crash down with zero buyers, I was thinking about this.

Gahrie said...

I still haven't quite figured out how the contract went so negative.

Overcapacity.

There was already a world over supply (more oil being pumped than used every day) driving the price down. Russia and Saudi Arabia were trying hard to come to some sort of production agreement that could maintain the price of oil. Then comes the virus and shut down, and consumption of oil has plummeted. All of the storage tanks, fixed and mobile, are full.

It's actually cheaper to sell the oil at a loss than either pay to store it or stop production.

Yancey Ward said...

Gahrie, I could understand that for the spot price and oil producers, but not the futures contract on the last day of trade. Why would someone who bought the futures contracts for May20 need to sell at a negative price- they, generally, are not oil producers- they are usually speculators or real oil consumers who always planned to take delivery.

Maybe it was the real consumers of oil-refiners- who didn't have anywhere to store the oil they bought the futures for months ago when they actually had a way to refine it and sell it on.

I just wish I had been in a position to rent a fleet of tanker trucks for a couple of years, and the foresight to do so 2 months ago. You could have made a fortune today getting paid to fill them up with oil, and then selling the futures 2 years out. You could have made a profit of $29,000/truck.

Birkel said...

Again, you could NOT buy the contract today.
It was not on offer.

Gahrie said...

You could have made a fortune today getting paid to fill them up with oil, and then selling the futures 2 years out.

Which is precisely why we should be buying oil and putting it into the strategic reserve right now. But the Democrats won't let us.

Gahrie said...

Why would someone who bought the futures contracts for May20 need to sell at a negative price- they, generally, are not oil producers- they are usually speculators or real oil consumers who always planned to take delivery.

Because when the oil is dumped on their front lawn on May 20 they have no where to store it. Everything is already full.

Birkel said...

Sometimes it's like people don't want useful information.

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