April 20, 2020

Nate Silver wonders about the "weird dynamics" of the red state/blue state difference... but is he picturing it right?


It seems to me, he's assuming the conditions of contagion are the same in red and blue states and only the politics are different.

But I think the reason the red states are getting closer to reopening is that there's good reason to think that it can be done carefully and that — with some distancing, a lot of masks, lots of hand-washing and sanitizing, and containment — the number of new cases can be kept down. And there are blue states and blue cities — notably New York City — where the same approach won't be enough, because people go to work on the subway and ride in elevators together.

But Silver looks ahead and imagines red states screwed by their own ignorance of science and blue states looking way smarter and — what does he mean by "weird dynamics"? Is he hoping it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that the red-state people are deplorable?

ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub."

159 comments:

Bay Area Guy said...

Nate is clueless about the dangers of shutting down the economy.

But in fairness, he was clueless about Trump's chances in 2016, too.

Oso Negro said...

But on the other hand, blue cities (but not their captured rural territory) could simply remain diseased and crime-ridden. Wouldn't THAT be a surprise?

CJinPA said...

It seems to me, he's assuming the conditions of contagion are the same in red and blue states and only the politics are different.

In contemporary culture, everything must be seen through a political lens. Everything. Meaning, everything must ultimately answer to politicians.

Yes, the conditions that created the different outcomes in Red/Blue states would have to be considered before reaching any conclusions in the future. But that's no fun!

stlcdr said...

Some places are not like other places. Blue people live in some places and red people in other places.

Ambrose said...

It's "weird dynamic" right now with 45% of the US cases in blue NY.

Wince said...

Are "case counts" really the problem?

Sebastian said...

"Is he hoping it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that the red-state people are deplorable?"

Oh, yeah. They all do.

Fernandinande said...

""Orthodox Jewish women faced with a pandemic dilemma: purify themselves after menstruation in a communal pool, or disobey their G-d"

More locally, we have different but equally silly superstitions (aren't all superstitions equally silly?) -

"Hataałii adéíst’į́į́’ ííł’ínígíí said a deadly and unseen sickness known as ch’osh doo yit’iinii, or ha’t’ííshíí na’ałniihi, was born from the ashes of the mammals and reptiles that burned in the Australian fires in 2019.
...
Eight years later, in 1857, the CDC stated [the CDC was formed in 1946 - Ed.], the fifth influenza pandemic of the century did not reach the Navajo people, but by this time, they were in the midst of another war, this time with the U.S.
...
The Centers for Disease Control gave the ghost-virus a name: SARS-CoV2, better known as COVID-19. Navajo Nation leaders named it Dikos Nitsaaígíí Náhást’éíts’áadah."

rehajm said...

Of course that could not pan out and the evidence could show distancing wasn't all that worth it (not that it would be reported on CNN). Of course other nations are opening up and prove the same thing...

stevew said...

Yes.

Ken B said...

I agree with Althouse’s analysis with one big caveat. There are a lot who want to open up and *not* do so gingerly and carefully. Your blog is full of them! If they get their way, which they might in some states, then Nate Silver gets his.

chuck said...

Is he hoping...

Of course. Not just hoping, preying to the gods of science. Utah never locked down and we have at this point 27 covid related fatalities in a population 40% that of NYC.

Sebastian said...

"Are "case counts" really the problem?"

No. But from the point of view of keeping the panic alive, yes.

J. Farmer said...

So it's look like our choice this November will be between an internationalist/pseudo-libertarian Reaganism or a milquetoast, New Democrat Third Wayism. I'm undoubtedly voting for Trump but am doing so with my eyes wide open. Whoever wins the election, the elites will continue to feed at the trough, and the working class will get the scraps.

rcocean said...

Nate silver is a liberal blue-stater. I doubt he could tell you the difference between Indiana and Iowa. Most red states have significant rural populations and lower population densities. The practice "social distancing" by geography.

The real problem for places like Texas or Florida is immigration. How to keep the infected outsiders from bringing it in?

A more important question is this: Why is Calf still shut down when it has 40 million people and 1200 deaths?

Michael K said...

The left, including a few at this blog, are hoping the red states suffer for getting their lives back in order.

The the Miami Herald writer who wrote she was hoping allowing beaches to open would kill Trump supporters.

A lot of it is hoping that destroying the country would allow them to defeat Trump. They would rather rule in hell than serve in Heaven, as the saying once went.

Ficta said...

I wish we had a map of Covid hospitalizations grouped by congressional district and another of the 2016 election results. I bet we would see some correspondences that might help explain this red/blue split in attitude towards reopening.

Static Ping said...

Here's the current situation of the Wuhan coronavirus:

New York City is getting absolutely hammered, though things are definitely improving. But NYC is a unique situation: a city with very high population density, a very high reliance on mass transportation (which is still running), and a mayor who is a moron. It is basically the worst case scenario and if it was its own country it would be the worst hit place in the world by a large margin.

The next two worst states are New Jersey and Connecticut. Northern New Jersey is basically New York City West and western Connecticut is basically New York City East. So there you go.

The only other states of note are Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Louisiana is being driven almost entirely by New Orleans, which foolishly let Mardi Gras go forward because their mayor is even worse than New York's. Massachusetts was the unfortunate location of a super spreader event. Michigan has Detroit, which is usually sufficient explanation for anything.

As for the rest of the states, they are doing reasonably or very well. If they can do proper testing and follow sufficient precautions, they should be able to keep the cases at a reasonable level that will not overwhelm the medical system. Other than that, what else is there to do? The lockdown is not a cure for the disease. The whole purpose was to flatten the curve and since the curve is flattened in lots of places, well, mission accomplished. Might as well open up and see what happens. Locking down until the vaccine shows up is not an option; I am very much of the opinion that if such a thing were done it would either be ignored and/or the United States would cease to exist in any meaningful sense.

J. Farmer said...

No. But from the point of view of keeping the panic alive, yes.

Oh brother. Yet again, America's hyperpolarization succeeds in pushing the two sides into equally ridiculous positions and then screaming at and blaming the other. New America's going to be great.

Limited blogger said...

We're done mitigating. We flattened the curve. Ultimately the same number of people will get sick and the same number will die.

We didn't overwhelm the hospitals, so we're done.

rcocean said...

West Virginia has 25 deaths. Arkansas has 41. Missouri despite having big St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas has 198 deaths.

Kyzer SoSay said...

Ummm . . . not sure why people aren't understanding that the entire dynamic of the WuhuFlu has changed.

We. Have. The. Cure(s).

Open this shit back up already. If you start coughing one day out of nowhere, or wake up and CAN'T smell your morning coffee and bacon, or feel super-blah for a few days straight, go visit your friendly druggist and get a pack of HCQ, a bottle of zinc supplements, and if the cough is bad enough, a ZPak for good measure.

Then in 4 days you'll feel fine and as a bonus, now you're immune. "I took the Trump cocktail" should be the new social calling card, like "He went to Jared" or "Is it live or is it Memorex" - people ought to frame their HCQ prescriptions (maybe Trump can start signing those?) and have them printed in bumper sticker form.

Shit's cured like a Christmas ham. Let's get back to fucking work.

Rocketeer said...

Shorter Nate Silver: "All you red staters look alike to me."

Leland said...

I think you are right that people want to analyze this by politics, when they should be analyzing it by the situation. One could have fun showing the US map showing red/blue by counties and comparison to this map of coronavirus severity (set to coronavirus layer). However, you would do better in comparison of both population density and mode of transportation. Remember the map showing what areas of the country typically travelled several miles to nearest store? Yeah, that map is a better predictor than analyzing the politics.

Alas, this is Nate Silver, which calls his site 538 yet famously predicted Hillary would win in 2016, while misreading that her popular vote expectations didn't, um, translate into a majority of the 538 electoral college votes. He has a track record of misunderstanding data and making flawed assumptions based on the data.

rcocean said...

The curve has been flattened. Ventilators are in production. Lessons in treatment have been learned. Tests are available or will be soon. The hot weather is about to arrive in the Sunbelt. Schools have been shut down.

Its time back to go back to work for most of the country.

Unknown said...

WAIT TILL THE REDNECKS ON THE SUBWAYS IN WEST TEXAS HEAR ABOUT THIS SCIENCE

Pianoman said...

The current Narrative is that Red Staters are idiots in the Ways Of Science, and Blue Staters are the Wise Experts.

Red state fatalities so far: 5842
Blue state fatalities: 36359

Death rate per million in Red states: 40.5
Death rate per million in Blue states: 135.5

Yep, those Red staters sure are idiots. Only the Blue states, led by New York, know how to properly protect people.

Side anecdote: Today one of the developers I work with declared that all the home schooling taking place in the country is "dangerous", and that governments should look into banning it. He seriously said that, and I have no doubt that he believes it.

COVID-19 is doing more than killing the elderly. It's melting the Left's collective brain.

dbp said...

The dynamic is one which has existed for a long time but will be even worse in this situation. That dynamic isn't primarily between red and blue states, it is between red and blue parts of states. Rural parts of NY are going to be screwed because they could open up, but the state is dominated by the NYC metro area and so the whole state will be locked up as long as NYC has Covid problems. The opposite is not true in red states with big blue cities like Texas/Houston: The cities can stay restrictive while the country-side eases up.

Dave Begley said...

Isn't Nate Silver the guy who predicted Hillary would win in a landslide?

Kyzer SoSay said...

"Yet again, America's hyperpolarization succeeds in pushing the two sides into equally ridiculous positions"

I'm seeing a lot more of this on the Left, Farmer. A lot more lefties are saying to keep things locked tight as a drum, than there are Trump types saying for everyone to get up and go to the mall. What I do see in practical terms are most folks disagreeing on the process and degree of opening up we can do right now.

Personally, I think it's time to open up states and counties with sensible guidelines. If you're in NYC, Nawlins, or any other "hard-hit" area, keep 'er closed for another 2 or 3 weeks. Everywhere else should be free to open up. Let's all continue with the added cleanliness focus, and by summertime we can make this "social distancing" shit a thing of the past, at least until October or so.

rcocean said...

Travel bans will have to stay in place. Crowds discouraged. Guidelines followed. Etc.
But these draconian lockdowns except in the major hotspots should be lifted.

Ficta said...

Excellent @Leland! That's the map I was looking for.

Richard Dolan said...

Lockdowns aren't a cure and don't generate immunity to the virus. They were imposed to slow the rate at which the virus infects others, with the goal of avoiding an overburdened hospital/health care system in the short term. And there's no reason to expect that social distancing and other hygienic practices will improve when the lockdowns end or are relaxed. More likely the opposite, I suspect. So it's a given that when lockdowns end (however they end), conditions will become more favorable for the spread of the virus, and nature will then take nature's normal course.

Perhaps the warmer months will have an impact, perhaps the virus will mutate to a less dangerous form, perhaps the virus will claim lots of new victims, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps. But I suspect most people understand what the lockdown was intended to do, as well as the limited benefits it was capable of achieving, and know that ending the lockdown is not a risk-free exercise. Even still, the tolerance for continuing these lockdowns is decreasing daily, while for many the impact (financial, social and personal) of them mounts from bad to intolerable.

No doubt there will be plenty of 'weird dynamics' to go around, as everyone gets into the blame-game. I wouldn't give betting odds that Silver's red state-blue state idea is how that will all play out later this year.

Jupiter said...

"Is he hoping it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that the red-state people are deplorable?"

Oh, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. He is avoiding saying what he clearly believes, which is that it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that his assumptions are correct, and ours are wrong. Given his qualifications as a medical researcher, and the faultless predictions he has given at every stage of this disaster, it is hard to see how he could arrive at any other conclusion. The man is a saint as well as a genius, a genius as well as a saint.

rcocean said...

Talking about "Hyperpolitization" is absurd and is misleading. Its the LEFT & the D's that never stop politicizing everything. Talking about "both sides are doing it" is a cop out.

tim maguire said...

Not to worry, Nate will give red states a 15% chance of being successful. Then, if they are, his followers can say he wasn't wrong.

stevew said...

From Insty: “Monday, Governor Bill Lee announced the order for Tennesseans to remain at home will expire April 30, with the majority of businesses in 89 counties allowed to re-open May 1. The commissioner for the Tennessee Department of Health says there are now more recovered COVID-19 cases than active cases, plus additional (new) testing sites are coming soon.” Some businesses will open sooner. But social distancing protocols will remain.

rcocean said...

Talking about "Hyperpolitization" is absurd and is misleading. Its the LEFT & the D's that never stop politicizing everything. Talking about "both sides are doing it" is a cop out.

Unknown said...

Silver is always wrong.

Patriot states which open for business will cream the blue high govt spending states.

Richard Dolan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rcocean said...

Cucks like Rod Dreher, David French, or Matt lewis always pull that crap. They either blame the right, or talk about "both sides are doing it". They rarely attack the Left alone, because they want to be friends with the Left. They like their "reasonable conservative" paychecks.

stevew said...

"Isn't Nate Silver the guy who predicted Hillary would win in a landslide?"

Yes, but who among that crowd didn't?

Freeman Hunt said...

Our state never had a complete shutdown order. People who stay home are doing so by choice. Poor Silver may be disappointed.

Buckwheathikes said...

"Is he hoping it will become painfully, wretchedly clear that the red-state people are deplorable?"

No, Nate Silver and the rest of his buddies in the press are hoping everybody in red states dies horrible, painful deaths, so he can laugh at them.

He literally wants to laugh at Americans dying horrible deaths. Just because they refused to vote for Crooked Hillary Clinton.

These people are psychopaths.

Jim Gust said...

What will actually happen is that the Red states will get back to work and prosper, while the blue states will keep committing economic suicide and deteriorate.

Leveling the playing field.

Stuff that can move to red states will do so, leaving blue states behind.

Freeman Hunt said...

The news sells fiction. "Left and right at each other's throats! GOP Boomers clamor to be allowed to crowd together!" Meanwhile, you look around the neighborhood and right and left of all ages seem to be trying to be careful and make thoughtful choices.

Sebastian said...

Richard: "Lockdowns aren't a cure and don't generate immunity to the virus."

Sad that it needs to be stated.

"They were imposed to slow the rate at which the virus infects others, with the goal of avoiding an overburdened hospital/health care system in the short term."

Mission accomplished (cough-cough).

"nature will then take nature's normal course."

Nature always take its normal course. As Giesecke and the pro-sanity epidemiologists have been saying. Which is why, absent a vaccine, no mitigation is going to change the "course" much. As Giesecke etc. etc.

But don't tell it to the alarmists who view "case counts" as a problem.

narciso said...

you don't go full rick Wilson, and jen rubin,

Jupiter said...

"Side anecdote: Today one of the developers I work with declared that all the home schooling taking place in the country is "dangerous", and that governments should look into banning it. He seriously said that, and I have no doubt that he believes it."

You realize, he didn't have any opinion at all on the matter, until he read his Good Liberal Talking Points e-mail this AM, about the article in Harvard Magazine. He heard his Master's Voice, and now he knows The Truth!

jaydub said...

Guilford county where I live is the third most populous in NC, with 530,000 spread over 638 sq miles. According to the county health department, we have had 149 cases of Covid-19 in the county since the county started keeping track on March 17, and there have been 12 deaths of persons who were identified as having the virus at the time they died, which is different from being identified as having died from the virus. To break that down into rational statistics (all numbers as of 17 April):

1. The infection rate is 0.028% of the county population
2. There has been one case in the under 18 age group, fifteen in the 18 – 24 group, fifty-one in the 25 – 49 group, forty-one in the 50 – 64 group, and forty-one in the 65 and older group.
3. The death rate (if every death was directly attributable to the virus) is 0.002% of the county population.
4. There have been no deaths of people under 25 years old, one death for 25 – 49 years old, one death for persons 50 – 64, seven deaths for persons 65 – 79 years old, and three deaths for those 80 and older.

Adjoining counties have similar statistics but most have had no more than one or two fatalities. There are more and more people starting to ignore the stay at home order and I believe there will be riots if this doesn't end by 1 May. Our brain dead governor has already announced that he intends to extend it. Mecklenburg County in NC was the first to declare independence from King George in 1775, and my ancestors participated. I'm ready to carry on the family tradition.

J. Farmer said...

@rcocean:

Talking about "Hyperpolitization" is absurd and is misleading. Its the LEFT & the D's that never stop politicizing everything. Talking about "both sides are doing it" is a cop out.

This comment is a perfect illustration of hyperpolarization from the other side. Much of the right spent eight years hyperventilating about Obama, blaming him for everything, and holding him to a standard they would never apply to someone on their side. Sound familiar?

Views towards Russia completely inverted along partisan lines between Obama and Trump. Had Obama negotiated the Taliban deal that Trump did, all the usual suspects would be screaming from the rafters. And while both sides are pointing fingers and screaming at each other, the Establishment is carrying on. Its a pretty classic divide-and-conquer strategy.

Jupiter said...

We sure as Hell do seem to have avoided overloading the medical system. They're all sitting around the ER in face-masks, learning to code.

J. Farmer said...

@dbp:

That dynamic isn't primarily between red and blue states, it is between red and blue parts of states.

I think there's a lot of truth to that. It is the classic urban/rural divide. It's also part of the reason the electoral college is losing a lot of legitimacy. The upward trends towards urbanization is a worrying sign for conservatives.

Heartless Aztec said...

Central Park is open and has been. My beach? It's been closed down for almost a month. Just got opened on a limited basis. NYC based Media hammered us. Didn't even look in their own backyard.

EsoxLucius said...

If only we had testing to decide this, but IQ45 torpedoed that to keep the numbers down. Now we don't know what's going to happen when Alex Jones and Steve Hilton are in charge.

zipity said...

ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub."

Where have you been Althouse? This has been the SOP for Liberals/Democrats since, forever..

Drago said...

Farmer: "It's also part of the reason the electoral college is losing a lot of legitimacy."

The electoral college isn't losing legitimacy. It's purpose has never been made more clear.

It's the key hurdle to the left gaining absolute power by flooding their states with illegal aliens who are allowed to vote.

Obviously.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

seven deaths for persons 65 – 79 years old, and three deaths for those 80 and older.

Who might well have died from the ordinary flu or some other malady.

I like to think I'm a pretty reasonable guy, and it seems reasonable, knowing what we know now, to come to the conclusion that the infection rate for the Wuhan Virus is not 80% and its not all that lethal. In addition, as others have said, the point to the shutdown was to keep from overwhelming the medical facilities. The medical facilities seem to be pretty not overwhelmed considering that hospitals and other medical facilities are laying off doctors, nurses, and other workers because there are so few people in them. Its time to stop the shutdown.

Dave Begley said...

Ann:

Your Madison Facebook friends aren't very nice. You need a new set of friends.

What the hell is wrong with people?

Sebastian said...

jay: "There have been no deaths of people under 25 years old, one death for 25 – 49 years old, one death for persons 50 – 64, seven deaths for persons 65 – 79 years old, and three deaths for those 80 and older."

But we never knew that! We didn't know young people didn't die from WuFlu! We didn't have the data! Some athlete might have died somewhere! We had to shut things down just in case!

h said...

The D in TDS stands for "derangement".

rcocean said...

The desire to see those red state residence suffering is just a flip side of their hysterical desire to lock every down and hide away somewhere. We have people around here wearing face masks while Biking! Talk about absurd. Some middle-aged Karen barked at me in the supermarket yesterday. "Please get back behind the line!" I was about 6 inches over the line - 5.5 feet instead of 6 feet. LOL! She was clothed from head to foot with a thick scarf around her mouth.

Michael K said...

Much of the right spent eight years hyperventilating about Obama, blaming him for everything, and holding him to a standard they would never apply to someone on their side. Sound familiar?

Nonsense but to be expected from you.

I thought Obama was an empty suit but I don't recall much "Resistance." Paul Ryan was ready to negotiate but was told "I won."

Obamacare was written in secret by a team of 25 year old D staff lawyers and insurance company lobbyists. Pelosi said, "We have to pass it to see what's in it." The result was the loss of Congress in 2010. Scott Brown was not sworn nin until the bill was passed so he could not vote against it. The roll out was a disaster. Oregon never did get exchanges set up but spent all the money, about $250 million.

You are just a Neanderthal "pox on both their houses" type but there was NOTHING like the actions taken against Trump.

Rocketeer said...

The upward trends towards urbanization is a worrying sign for conservatives.

True, but I genuinely wonder if this pandemic will change attitudes about the relative desirability of urbanization (high density, mass transit, etc).

gspencer said...

Silver and other lefties will be silent when the rates continue to decline in all the open blue states.

Michael K said...

We have people around here wearing face masks while Biking!

My next door neighbor drove by the other day with her mask on in the car.

narciso said...

he's a dutiful bloc captain,

rcocean said...

Its astounding how much hate the TV pundits and online commentators have for the people protesting the lockdowns. They all should die, was a common sentiment. And course, mysterious Nazi flags were spotted by anonymous people, because anyone Not Left is a Nazi.

traditionalguy said...

Gymns will reopen in Georgia Friday. So this Red State will be in better shape. Peace through Strength.

Curious George said...

"ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub."

That's because not a single State or UW employee has lost their job or has been furloughed. Time to start, and the first group is all non essential employees. The second is all essential employees being forced to pay more of their health insurance and pension costs. Their tune will change quick. These two groups are uniquely unprepared to survive in the real world.

And the best part? All of them will ignore the stay at home stuff and be protesting every fucking day at the capitol.

GatorNavy said...

Mr Silver should have stuck to baseball.

Sebastian said...

"I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub.""

Why shocking?

I mean, you didn't believe prog alarmists when they said "if we only save one life," did you? You didn't think they actually give a damn about any deplorable lives, and would be perfectly happy to see red-state numbers reduced, right? I mean, you assume that people don't believe what they profess to believe, correct?

Anyway, thought experiment: how strongly would progs have supported throw-50%-out-of-work, multi-trillion-dollar shutdown-mitigation if WuFlu hadn't hit Seattle and then NYC hardest? Would they have wanted to shut down NYC just in case if Wuhan had mostly ravaged Little Rock and Cheyenne and Boise and Bismarck?

I am not saying the answer to the thought experiment is entirely clear: obviously, prog governors still would have been tempted to start a power-concentrating, control-exerting CYA operation that would have had the considerable side benefit of undermining the Trump economy.

MBunge said...

It's been joked about and referenced for years but this situation has really laid bare just how astonishingly ignorant our elites and wannabe elites are about not only most of the country but about how the United States actually works.

Mike

narciso said...

oh really

Virgil Hilts said...

In Arizona on Friday, they reduced the total expected deaths from 1005 to 267. We are keeping our distance but laws are not too draconian here. Here's the real difference though. My zip code has (i) 20-25 sick people (probably a lot more have been exposed, obviously), and (ii) one half the square miles of Manhattan! It is easy for us to go about my business and not get within 10 feet of people. We do not have to take the subway or walk down a crowded avenue.

Automatic_Wing said...

It seems to me, he's assuming the conditions of contagion are the same in red and blue states and only the politics are different.

He's also assuming that these lockdowns are highly effective in preventing coronavirus cases, which I'm not sure is really the case.

Temujin said...

New Yorkers understand very little outside of their own city limits. I'm sure the view outside my window is very different than the view outside Nate Silver's window. Unfortunately for the nation and the world, our media reports everything from lenses made outside Nate Silver's window.

But, oh, if only they could see what I see from here.

I'm betting on my State, my City, my Neighborhood. We'll be alright, but I appreciate your concern. Now...I have to get back to work. Perhaps we'll see you New Yorkers down here again next January?

mezzrow said...

It's almost like they hate us and want us dead. That couldn't be it, could it?

Bay Area Guy said...

@stevew

"From Insty: “Monday, Governor Bill Lee announced the order for Tennesseans to remain at home will expire April 30, with the majority of businesses in 89 counties allowed to re-open May 1."

Great to hear - made my afternoon.

Follow Tennessee!

Buckwheathikes said...

"I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things"

I'm surprised you're willing to admit these people are your friends. You need to find a better class of people.

They're psychopaths.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

You are just a Neanderthal "pox on both their houses" type but there was NOTHING like the actions taken against Trump.

The volume is certainly louder given that one side is over represented in academia and media. But the effect is not much different. Under George W. Bush, we got interventionism, mass immigration, deficit spending, and more "free" trade deals. Then we elected Mr. Hope and Change and got interventionism, mass immigration, deficit spending, and more "free" trade deals. And yet, Bush was "literally Hitler, invading Iraq for oil and Halliburton, hoping for God to bring about the rapture" and Obama was a "Marxist/Islamist/Anti-colonialist Kenyan Fifth Column who Wanted to Bring America Down." Both of these descriptions are nonsense.

Buckwheathikes said...

"Here's the current situation of the Wuhan coronavirus: New York City is getting absolutely hammered..."

There's a very good reason that New York City is getting hammered. Cuomo and de Blasio have made a policy decision to allow some to die in order to keep the subways running and therefore to keep the money flowing in.

They're trading people for subways. That's not just me making hyperbole. MIT scientists have studied this.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/mit-study-subways-a-major-disseminator-of-coronavirus-in-nyc/

"The paper, by MIT economics professor and physician Jeffrey Harris, points to a parallel between high ridership “and the rapid, exponential surge in infections” in the first two weeks of March — when the subways were still packed with up to 5 million riders per day — as well as between turnstile entries and virus hotspots."

Cuomo and de Blasio are psychopaths. They're literally murdering people in the city.

Drago said...

Farmer: "This comment is a perfect illustration of hyperpolarization from the other side. Much of the right spent eight years hyperventilating about Obama, blaming him for everything, and holding him to a standard they would never apply to someone on their side. Sound familiar?"

I think turning the federal bureaucracy into his own personal Stasi to "investigate" (frame) opposing political candidates and domestic opposition movements (Tea Party/IRS) deserves at least a mention.

But from Farmer? Nope.

Why, that little petty stuff?

And just today we had the CIA-directed Halper Papadopoulus transcripts released which demonstrated just how far obama and his minions were willing to go to use our law enforcement and intelligence services against an opposition candidate.

I mean, I thought that was kind of a big deal but now Farmer has helped me to see that this is just another unfair criticism of obama.

Skeptical Voter said...

Here in Glendale--adjacent to Beautiful Downtown Burbank of Johnny Carson show fame, our city council has decreed that we shall don face masks whenever we leave our homes. Presumably if my car is parked in the street as it is, I can wait to put on my face mask after I enter the car--although I'm probably violating the edict when I step off the curb without my mask on.

Our friend Farmer's posts remind me of the old lawyer joke that every farmer is an "Expert" because you can usually find them to be out standing in their field.

Leland said...

That's the map I was looking for.

Ficta, have you played with the replay? You can see the changes starting from March to now.

Ruprecht said...

Red states have fewer subways. When the dust settles we'll find that NY was hammered super hard because they are metropolitian, live packed together, and lots of people commute to work on subways. I think those subways are still open*.

This doesn't really apply to most red states.

* Also add DeBlasio convincing folks to gather and them closing half the subway cars so that everyone was packed together on fewer cars.

dbp said...

"The upward trends towards urbanization is a worrying sign for conservatives."

I don't really see this as an issue: Urban area will be liberal, rural areas conservative but most Americans live in suburbs, which can swing either way. Suburbs and rural areas are looking very good if epidemics are going to become "a thing".

Amadeus 48 said...

I came from Chicago to Michigan for a change of scenery. Today, the highway is full of traffic when there is a shift change in Holland. The landscapers are back on the job. The restaurants are eagerly looking forward to May 1, assuming that Whitmer will at least give a short time table to reopening.

No one in either state has come to terms with how much state tax revenues have crashed. I suspect that is true among Althouse’s Madison friends. When UW does a 10% reduction in force, they won’t understand it. When the state of Wisconsin does it, they won’t understand it. When 10% of Althouse’s pension gets paid in Wisconsin scrip— good for some surplus cheese and the frozen haunch of a slaughtered milk cow— Althouse might at least understand why. It won’t have been done by Trump— he’s leaving it up to the states. The Wisconsin legislature like the Michigan legislature, has spoken up— they think Wisconsin should get back to work.

Like polio, tuberculosis, AIDS, ebola, and small pox, we are going to have to live with virus this until there is effective treatment, herd immunity, or effective prevention. Shelter in place was and is a stop gap.

We might as well get on with life.

Buckwheathikes said...

It's time to put New York City and state on lockdown and quarantine their citizens to keep this thing from spreading. Over 50% of the problem is in one city. Wall it off until a vaccine is developed and re-open the rest of the country.

It's ridiculous that we have to shut down an entire national economy because a couple of idiot Democrats refuse to empty their subways and buses of infected people.

Ficta said...

Ficta, have you played with the replay? You can see the changes starting from March to now.

Yep, that's a great map.

RK said...

I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen

The progs feeling warm and cozy wrapped in the comforter of government control.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

The electoral college isn't losing legitimacy. It's purpose has never been made more clear.

It's the key hurdle to the left gaining absolute power by flooding their states with illegal aliens who are allowed to vote.


That's essentially my point. The electoral college is a good way of balancing divergent interstate interests. But the problem is becoming less a matter of interstate divergence and more a matter of intrastate divergence. The so called "purple America" illustrates this. California went from purple to blue, Virginia is in the process of going to blue, and Texas and Florida remain purple but are trending towards blue.

This is the phenomenon that my side has been sounding the alarm about for years. Sadly, the GOP has spent more time and energy worrying more about the borders in the middle east than the one to our direct south. Mass illegal immigration has continued unabated.

Birkel said...

And on these very pages we can read Leftists hope their political opposition gets a potentially deadly virus.

Meanwhile, I worry about 3rd World children who will be dying because the ROW economy has collapsed.

Ken B said...

Ann
Your Facebook friends sound like turds. Worse actually.

I quit one online group because two members were saying BoJo got what he deserved, and one other was gloating that Rand Paul got infected.

Jim at said...

It's almost like they hate us and want us dead.

That's fine. The feeling is mutual.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

"I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub.""

If this is not an absolute disaster then they either have to admit that the shutdown was a complete over reaction, or even worse, that Trump saved lives. The projection was at least 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. Worst case one to two million deaths. Last I heard it was around 41,000 deaths. And deaths are trending down. My position is that the shutdown probably wasn't needed, but we had no way of knowing that for certain, so it was prudent. Now we need to get back to work.

I Callahan said...

I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub.

You shouldn't be surprised about this. The people who often talk about other people and their "hate" are just projecting their own selves on others. Kurt Schlichter was right - they hate us. Treat all interactions with that in mind.

chuck said...

I searched the Utah news to see what was up with testing. The big complaint is that we have all this testing capacity and not enough people getting tested. Note that we are a few days from having tested 2% of the population. The state is now doing antibody testing as well, not sure how they are going to get a bunch of folks taking the trouble to get tested.

Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people

You never know who will go Nazi until they get tested.

Michael K said...

The volume is certainly louder given that one side is over represented in academia and media.

I notice you don't comment on the policy issues. You didn't like the Iraq War. Some might remember this all goes back to Saddam invading Kuwait and threatening Saudi. Maybe April Glaspie mislead him or maybe he just got greedy. Democrats were complaining that we aided him in his war with Iran. A big mistake was letting him keep his helicopters in the Armistice. The fact is that the Saudis wanted us out after 9/11 and Bush was being pressed by Saddam trying to shoot down US planes. The 2003 invasion was a mistake but in retrospect.

At the time, I thought it was worth it to see if Arabs could rule themselves without tyrants,. They can't. The big mistake was the occupation and appointing Bremer. I've read a lot of Pat Buchanan's work but I don't agree with him on a lot of it, You do.

realestateacct said...

I remember telling someone who grew up in Queens about some people I knew who got trapped in their car in snow and had to cross country ski for miles before they found a house. She could not believe that it was possible for there to be miles of a road with no houses or businesses. And we were just talking about upstate vs downstate.

Michael K said...

The state is now doing antibody testing as well, not sure how they are going to get a bunch of folks taking the trouble to get tested.

Aside from those with symptoms, antibody testing is the only thing important. It is much easier and should be used for a good sample of the population, maybe 5%.

Original Mike said...

When people tell you that they hate you and want you to die, it's best to believe them.

narciso said...

I've long considered the Gulf war was a pyrrhic victory, Saddam remained in power, the kingdom and Kuwait were the beneficiaries, representatives of both were bin laden and ksm,

MikeR said...

It's a gamble, no? What if in 4 to 5 weeks we have red states with economy coming back to life, and not much rebound, and blue states full of angry unemployed people? Why would Silver assume that the blue state approach is right?

RichardJohnson said...

Why does it appear that "red" and "blue" states will have different reactions to relaxing the COVID-19(a.k.a. Winnie the Flu) shutdown rules? Consider how the vote went in 2016. Most recent tally:

Hillary-supporting states 30,471 COVID-19 deaths
Trump supporting states 9,444 COVID-19 deaths

In addition, one can see a rural/urban Republican/Democrat split within many states. Downstate New York is Demo and has a severe COVID-19 incidence. Upstate NY is more evenly split and has a much less severe COVID-19 incidence. In Michigan, Demo Wayne County ( includes Detroit) has much more severe COVID-19 incidence than the Republican-leaning rest of the state.

So it is no surprise they respond differently.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

J. Farmer said...

@narciso:

I've long considered the Gulf war was a pyrrhic victory, Saddam remained in power, the kingdom and Kuwait were the beneficiaries, representatives of both were bin laden and ksm,

Good points. It also vanquished "Vietnam syndrome" and resulted in massive overconfidence in our military's ability to solve international problems. Between that and Cold War triumphalism, it is no wonder that direct American interventionism exploded under Clinton and went off the rails under Bush. Realism was abandoned and was replaced by a horrid mixture of liberal internationalism and neoconservatism. People often forget that the neocons hated George H.W. Bush and mostly supported Clinton.

narciso said...

that's not the point I'm making, we sort of compounded the problem getting involved in Bosnian conflict, which was the training ground for al queda, for Saudi Egyptian and other jihadists same for Kosovo, that was the front door to operations in Europe, everyone from Moussaoui to ksm and zawahiris brother were active there,

Cato said...

I wonder why all of the high death hotpots are in communities run by democrats?

Well, I know we all know the answer.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

I notice you don't comment on the policy issues.

Two sentences after the one you quoted described the degree of policy continuity between Bush and Obama. I didn't mention the Iraq War but will go ahead and point out that there was broad bipartisan support for it, including the last two Democratic candidates for president. Obama ran on his opposition to the Iraq War but escalated our involvement in Afghanistan, pursued regime change in Libya and Syria, and backpedaled by stupidly redeploying troops to Iraq. Ironically, for as much as Trump has defined himself as the anti-Obama, he doubled down on two of Obama's worst middle east policies: huge arm sales to Saudi Arabia and support for their war in Yemen.

J. Farmer said...

@narciso:

that's not the point I'm making, we sort of compounded the problem getting involved in Bosnian conflict, which was the training ground for al queda, for Saudi Egyptian and other jihadists same for Kosovo, that was the front door to operations in Europe, everyone from Moussaoui to ksm and zawahiris brother were active there,

I understand it wasn't the point you were making, but I used it as jumping off point to make a few points of my own. The outcome of the First Gulf War resulted in a huge increase in our presence in the middle east that we have yet to wind down. This has vastly distorted American interests in the region and has needlessly entangled us with the interests of regional actors. We can balance the competing powers without maintaining a massive troop presence.

Yancey Ward said...

We will find out in 6 weeks whether or not we are serious people any longer. There are three possible outcomes with the reopenings:

(1) Everything works well, COVID cases continue to decline, the rest of the country is opened up by June.

(2) COVID cases resurge in the states ending the shutdowns- every state shuts down again.

(3) (2) happens, but we tough it out without shutting everything down again.

If the outcome is (2), then we are truly fucked and deserve the calamity that comes afterwards. The only realistic paths forward are (1) and (3)- hope for (1), plan for (3).

If it is (2), buy all the food and ammo you can buy before it all disappears.

Stan Smith said...

My rural county has 6 Covid-19 deaths, all from the same elder facility, all of people over 90, all who had "underlying conditions." One of them was the "gentleman friend" of my 88-year-old mother-in-law, who tested positive for the virus but had NO symptoms, and is currently "damned tired" of being forced to isolate (read "be imprisoned") in her tiny apartment. Her friend was 90 and had asthma and other co-morbidities.

A little perspective: CDC figures show that on average, more than 233,625 Americans die EVERY MONTH from all causes. The figures for "regular" flu & pneumonia are 55,672 per year, or 4,639 per month. Can we finally agree that Covid-19 is not the black death plague the press is making it out to be? Can we finally agree that the U.S. is NOT NEW YORK?

Time to open up. The lockdowns are stupid. Take care and observe precautions, but for goodness sakes, this is not the end of the world.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I'm in a RED county of a dark blue state (Calif) We have had 3 deaths and 28 cases. The area of the county where I live and the two closest other counties have ZERO cases. None. Nada. ZIP ZERO.

Treating everyplace like it is NYC or LA or other congested urban is INSANE. Of course we all want to be careful, wash hands yada yada yada. Social distancing is already a thing for rural people.

This really has to end and soon before rational people lose their patience and become decidedly irrational.

Release us before it is too late. You won't like us when we are angry.

Fernandinande said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael K said...

Two sentences after the one you quoted described the degree of policy continuity between Bush and Obama

That is your hobby horse of Iraq and Afghanistan. I was referring to the fact that Obama had a GOP willing to negotiate and they were turned down flat. There was no "Resistance" but the poor policies, the "Stimulus" that was directed at women and leftists, and Obamacare, resulted in election consequences, not demonstrations, The closest we came to demonstrations were the Tea Party that was slapped down with the IRS and OSHA inspections.

Bob Boyd said...

Maybe it's bad Karma from voting for Hillary.

Jack Klompus said...

"I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen..."

This shocks you? Proggy college towns are inhabited by an overwhelming number of cowardly assholes full of projection "posting" shit they wouldn't have the balls to say to someone in person.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

I was referring to the fact that Obama had a GOP willing to negotiate and they were turned down flat.

That is completely ahistorical. GOP leaders in Congress like Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, Tom Coburn, and Jim DeMint made obstructionism a key component of their effort to reverse the losses they experienced in 2008. I don't have a particular problem with this, since that's basically what you expect an opposition to do.

Curious George said...

"ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub."

These are the same vermin who protested at the Capital for four months because they had to pay 50% of the annual pension payment and at least 12.6% of their health insurance premium.

Tomcc said...

I'd guess that your Facebook friends are now thoroughly convinced by the media that NY is a precursor to the rest of the nation and the only safe resolution is to die in our homes broke and grateful to the state.

Rosalyn C. said...

I was looking at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map the other day and noticed that the total deaths from COVID 19 in South Dakota is 7, Utah 25, North Dakota 9 etc. If they opened up and the fatality numbers in those states doubled or even tripled that would give Nate Silver and the Blue politico's talking points and hysterical headlines, but there still would be no reasonable basis for those states to remain shut down. Focusing on protecting their vulnerable populations would be sufficient.

Dr. Birx pointed to this reality in the press briefing today regarding Jacksonville Fl beaches and why there was no reason for their beaches to be closed when the serious outbreak is in South Florida.

MayBee said...

The mayor of Chicago just ripped the Gov of Florida to shreds, for some reason. As if all those Floridians are going to travel up to Chicago and spread their non-Covid germs through the infected city.

Kathryn51 said...

"ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub."

A few weeks back, I muted several of my FB friends (both sides) because I couldn't stand the politics - everything was Trump's fault (blue friends) or Trump could do no wrong but the ChiComs caused everything bad (reds). I guess the 30 day mute ended Sunday because my FB feed erupted in the most vile, hateful, poisonous screeds possible - primarily from the blues.

Top of the list is that if any protester gets Covid-19, then they should be banned from all treatment. For exercising their 1A rights - no medical treatment.

Kathryn51 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Laslo Spatula said...

"I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen ..."

They sound like vengeful people.

I am Laslo.

Michael K said...

That is completely ahistorical. GOP leaders in Congress like Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, Tom Coburn,

Once again, there can be no discussion with you. You spout lies like a fountain.

RichardJohnson said...

@Michael K:
I was referring to the fact that Obama had a GOP willing to negotiate and they were turned down flat.

J. Farmer in reply:
That is completely ahistorical. GOP leaders in Congress like Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, Tom Coburn, and Jim DeMint made obstructionism a key component of their effort to reverse the losses they experienced in 2008. I don't have a particular problem with this, since that's basically what you expect an opposition to do.

On the contrary, the historical record supports Michael K's point, not yours. GOP obstruction to Obama didn't occur until after Obama turned down negotiating with the GOP on the Stimulus Package. Obama to GOP: 'I won.' This news reported came on Jaunary 23, 2009, three days after Obama became President.

Obama's refusal to negotiate with Republicans predated Republican obstructionism.

Steverino said...

If I may be so bold as to posit an important difference between New York City, Ground Zero for the coronavirus, and the Midwest: New York City has a subway full of street people who are vectors for every disease imaginable. Obviously, they played an oversized role in spreading coronavirus to the far corners of the railnet. To exacerbate the situation, the Commie Idiot Mayor did not shut the subways down nor did he clear the bums out so that now half a dozen bums at a time have camped out in a subway car. Usually, one bum is fragrant enough to clear the normal people out of a car.

By contrast, the Midwest is short of subways, save Chicago. Each subway track carries twenty times the passengers of a single lane of highway. Or, twenty times the viruses.

Tom T. said...

Nate has been trying unsuccessfully for a month now to make the virus into a red-state disease.

https://mobile.twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1243593051190317059?lang=en

J. Farmer said...

@RichardJohnson:

On the contrary, the historical record supports Michael K's point, not yours. GOP obstruction to Obama didn't occur until after Obama turned down negotiating with the GOP on the Stimulus Package. Obama to GOP: 'I won.' This news reported came on Jaunary 23, 2009, three days after Obama became President.

The meeting of GOP congressman to coordinate the response occurred at the Caucus Room in DC on January 20th, the day of the inauguration. And "negotiating with the GOP" was not "turned down." Compromises were made in order to secure its passage in the Senate, though obviously not as much as they would like.

But here's the bigger point. If Trump told a group of Democratic legislators, "I won," would you complain of his obstructionism?

J. Farmer said...

p.s. The actions of the Republicans and the Democrats in Congress during Obama's first term is discussed in Robert Draper's Do Not Ask What Good We Do: Inside the U.S. House of Representatives

Drago said...

RichardJohnson: "On the contrary, the historical record supports Michael K's point, not yours. GOP obstruction to Obama didn't occur until after Obama turned down negotiating with the GOP on the Stimulus Package. Obama to GOP: 'I won.' This news reported came on Jaunary 23, 2009, three days after Obama became President.

Obama's refusal to negotiate with Republicans predated Republican obstructionism."

Correct.

On the flip side, who can forget George W Bush, as one of his first "negotiating" "ploys" after being elected, handed the writing of the education bill to none other than Edward Kennedy.

No, the record is clear on these points. The republican establishment figures have always been more than happy to work with democrat Presidents and across the aisle.

obama bought into the end of history nonsense that the talking heads sold him that "We are all Socialists Now" and that the republican party would never come back, so he (obama) didn't need them at all.

Who can forget this obama classic: "Finally we got this car up on level ground. And, yes, it's a little beat up. It needs to go to the body shop. It's got some dents; it needs a tune-up. But it's pointing in the right direction. And now we've got the Republicans tapping us on the shoulder, saying, we want the keys back.

You can't have the keys back. You don't know how to drive. You can ride with us if you want, but you got to sit in the backseat. We're going to put middle-class America in the front seat. We're looking out for them."

Clyde said...

You need a better class of Facebook friends.

Gk1 said...

"This shocks you? Proggy college towns are inhabited by an overwhelming number of cowardly assholes full of projection "posting" shit they wouldn't have the balls to say to someone in person."

I think it was the comedian Demetri Martin said it best "What I like about social media is how it brings out the very best in people." :-P

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

just for S's & G's--

How would all this have played out if everyone, media included,
was reasonably ok with a Trump presidency?

if the answer to that scenario is 'better' in general, would that
not indicate TDS is a menace to our country?

Yancey Ward said...

Tom T. is correct- I remember several weeks ago reading a Nate Silver piece on how the red states would suffer the most while the blue states, being supersmart and scientific would extinguish the virus quickly with smart quarantines and massive testing effort once Trump got out of the way. He even wrote a tweet crowing about how all big increases in new cases were red states rather than blue ones. There were a number of such pundits doing the same 5 weeks ago. Most of them would probably deny they wrote them now, or that Trump fucked it all up in just the blue states for some reason.

Yancey Ward said...

Just for S's and G's, I will answer- it probably wouldn't have made any difference in the important things. The incentives that matter are same no matter Trump's standing with the media, and the incentives are same no matter who the president happened to be. What would be different today would simply be that Trump wouldn't be attacked relentlessly for everything he does, but New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut would still be where they are right now. All of the states would be right where they are today with regards to cases and deaths.

Michael K said...

Farmer is frustrating as he does not agree on facts. I should not call him a liar but he operates from another reality. One that can be found in American Conservative and Unz Review, We live in different realities.

Then GOP majority was willing to negotiate with Obama. They lost the House in 2006 which brought the 2008 collapse.

Tom Coburn was one of the most objective and reasonable members of the Senate. I am not a big fan of McConnell and consider most GOP politicians little better than Democrats but Coburn was different.

Jack Klompus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jack Klompus said...

"I think it was the comedian Demetri Martin said it best 'What I like about social media is how it brings out the very best in people.' :-P"

A friend who lives in Austin was overheard by a total stranger at his local bar discussing some book by some author known to be to the right of Lenin. The bartender later takes him aside with a "can I talk to you." The bartender asks sheepishly, "You're not...like...you know..one of those 'Proud Boys' types or something like that are you? I mean, someone came up to me and complained he heard you talking about..."

So basically some pathetic little pussy tattled on a bar patron to the bartender about being offended by the topic of a total stranger's conversation he overheard and hurled an anonymous Nazi accusation at them to a quasi-authority figure. The bartender refused to a) tell the snitch to fuck off or laugh in his face or b) identify the guy to my friend so he could kick his ass.

The sad thing is this level of being a miserable shit is not the least surprising in a town like Austin.

gilbar said...

DeBlasio convincing folks to gather and them closing half the subway cars so that everyone was packed together on fewer cars.

Serious Question
Assuming (for the sake of argument) that
a) you were DeBlasio
b) you WANTED to Maximize Covid-19 cases and deaths....
What, if Anything would you do Differently then what he has done?

Jupiter said...

"No one in either state has come to terms with how much state tax revenues have crashed."

Not true at all. The blue state Governors are already whining good and loud for the Federal Government to bail them out. They have already started planning how they will spend the federal money on their pet boondoggles, and their cronies, lackeys and clients are lining up for the windfall. Dare the Congress disappoint them?

WTF. Just declare an extra zero on every piece of US currency in existence. We'll all be rich! Hell, I've over a thousand dollars in my wallet!

JAORE said...

" I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things.."

Damn those divisive Republicans.

Gk1 said...

I am seeing an ever so slight panicking of some blue state liberals that A.)Trump is not being blamed for a virus hatched in China B.)Blue state cities are the breeding area for the outbreak. Their transparent gloating over possible deaths in red states is rather sad and borderline psychotic.

Brody Oaks said...

You didn't bother to include the very next tweet!

Although on second thought I'm not so sure that it will play out in so partisan a way.

It's possible there are certain high-profile fights (i.e. over beaches) while in practice most states are taking fairly similar baby-steps to re-opening but framing them in different terms.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1252253932279214086

So yeah, maybe he actually is picturing it correctly?

Sebastian said...

Gk1: "Their transparent gloating over possible deaths in red states is rather sad and borderline psychotic."

It's gonna be part of the backtracking. In addition to: We had real calculations! We followed the experts! If we only saved one life! We had no evidence, so --! What if we hadn't!

We'll get: "On second thought, serves'm right!" "Fat, sick, old, white men dying: why didn't we think of that sooner!"

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Farmer is frustrating as he does not agree on facts. I should not call him a liar but he operates from another reality. One that can be found in American Conservative and Unz Review, We live in different realities.

I gave you facts. You simply rejected them. On what basis, I don't know.

Then GOP majority was willing to negotiate with Obama. They lost the House in 2006 which brought the 2008 collapse.

I don't know what you're referring to with "GOP majority." Democrats increased their majorities in the House and Senate in the 2008 election. Also, as I said, Obama did make concessions on the stimulus bill in order to secure its passage in the Senate. If you and I argue negotiate over the price of your home and can't come to an agreement, no deal is made. Our inability to reach a settlement is not the same thing as refusing to negotiate.

Had Donald Trump met with Democratic members of Congress in 2017 and said, "I won," would you be complaining that he was obstructing and being unwilling to negotiate? That's my point. You're faulting Obama for not doing something that you wouldn't expect of Trump. That's partisanship.

Ken B said...

Farmer
Indeed.

Original Mike said...

"ADDED: I'm seeing some of my Madison Facebook friends saying shockingly nasty things about the people who want to reopen — for example, visualizing them submerged in a "coronavirus infused hot tub.""

Want to learn something? Push back.

I'm not predicting the result. I am saying, either way, you learned something interesting.

Original Mike said...

And if you're unwilling to push back, that teaches too.

Michael K said...

OK. Last try.

I gave you facts. You simply rejected them. On what basis, I don't know.

Then GOP majority was willing to negotiate with Obama. They lost the House in 2006 which brought the 2008 collapse.


I mis spoke. Ryan was minority leader, not Speaker in 2010 before that fall election. If the Democrats had that Senate majority you mentioned in 2010, why did they have to hold up Brown's swearing in ?

Bye.

I have to smile when I see you and Ken B agreeing on everything.

Christopher said...

We have people around here wearing face masks while Biking!

And?

You can catch the virus while biking, especially in tight spaces which often happens with bikes, and *especially* when biking behind someone.

Jupiter said...

Having threatened the Governors' authority by saying that he was in charge, Trump has now admitted that they are in charge, and suggested that they should remove their boots from the throats of their states as soon as they think practicable. Is that a problem?

Jupiter said...

"You can catch the virus while biking, especially in tight spaces which often happens with bikes, and *especially* when biking behind someone."

I'm trying to picture this. Are these, like, stationary bikes? Is this an activity you arrange in advance? What are these people wearing?

wildswan said...

One kind of hot spot has been old people's homes - these have contributed substantially to the death toll among those over seventy. Observing the death toll in people over seventy it's been proposed to segregate older people in special lockdown homes where they will be safe.

Viruses are temporary but stupidity abides.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

If the Democrats had that Senate majority you mentioned in 2010, why did they have to hold up Brown's swearing in ?

The 2008 election resulted in the Democrats holding 57 seats, the Republicans 41, and two independents, Lieberman and Sanders. The ARRA (stimulus bill) was signed into law in February 2009. The special election that resulted in Brown's win was a year later in January 2010.

I have to smile when I see you and Ken B agreeing on everything.

Except we don't. That's an impressive number of errors for two sentence. Congratulations.

Amadeus 48 said...

Like I said, Farmer just slices the baloney thinner.

What I remember is that Obama held a healthcare summit in 2009 or 2010. Ryan laid out the GOP proposals to tweak what became the Obamacare monstrosity, and Obama, instead of responding, said let’s move on. You can look it up.

Tell us, Farmer, have you ever been evaluated pn the Asperger spectrum?

Rusty said...

As I have brought up before. Ad nauseum. Illinois, Cook County, and Chicago are the three most corrupt places in American politics. What , in gods name, would make anyone think that Obama was the only virgin in the whorehouse. Not only is Obama a dedicated leftist, If it's not being redundant, he's also a hopelessly corrupt one too.
Well. None are so blind, yada yada.....

Lurker21 said...

Some governor and some state will screw up. That always happens, and then it becomes fodder for another round of commentary and attacks. It's unlikely to be systematic and across the board among any group of governors or states, but it will be made to appear so by the media.