Althouse: At the Wednesday Night Café...

April 15, 2020

At the Wednesday Night Café...

348D9CFA-4E5E-482E-A379-5BB199DE6201_1_201_a

... you can talk all night.

320 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 320 of 320

Ken B said...: Original Mike
Okay. Exponential growth shows as a straight line against a log scale. If the line is straight the growth is exponential even if the slope is shallow. That just means a long doubling period. But it is sub exponential if the curve is bending down. Bending down is determined by the second derivative.
I think the graph looks straight for the last 10 days or so, but the curve did bend down a bit early April; 4/15/20, 11:45 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: @Drago
you're absolutely right. Ramadan, April 23 will be interesting.
Carlson was sloppy with the phrase 'religious services'

BUT-- that said, a full burka has the whole mask thing beat!!
anyone cranking out n95 hijabs yet??; 4/15/20, 11:46 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Kyjo is right- the log graph for UD deaths is no longer linear, and hasn't been since about April 3rd or so. Ken's eyes are infected with moronavirus.; 4/15/20, 11:47 PM
effinayright said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/15/20, 11:47 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Ken, you don't have to eyeball it- Kyjo literally listed the numbers for the last 10 days in an earlier comment that prove it isn't exponential any longer.; 4/15/20, 11:50 PM
Inga said...: “De gustibus non est disputandum.”

Plena est momenti sui ipsius.; 4/15/20, 11:52 PM
effinayright said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I have a Taiwanese friend and he was amazed at the lack of seriousness with which we entered this battle.
****************

And how was this nameless Taiwanese friend of yours qualified to judge our lack of seriousness?

Is he Taipei's equivalent of Dr. Fauci?

Or is he, as I suspect, an imaginary friend like the rich guy Dick Gephardt conveeniently
claimed wanted his taxes increased?; 4/15/20, 11:53 PM
Kyjo said...: Shorter Ken B @11:02pm: "Any increase in deaths = exponential increase in deaths."

Actual exponential growth would involve an increasing rate of new deaths, which looks like a straight line on the logarithmic scale. The number of new deaths should increase daily. But the rate of increase in new deaths has been declining. Wikipedia's data has been updated and revised since my last comment, so here it is now:

2020-04-01 4,746(+25%)
2020-04-02 5,821(+23%)
2020-04-03 7,006(+20%)
2020-04-04 8,359(+19%)
2020-04-05 9,534(+14%)
2020-04-06 10,746(+13%)
2020-04-07 12,674(+18%)
2020-04-08 14,610(+15%)
2020-04-09 16,466(+13%)
2020-04-10 18,544(+13%)
2020-04-11 20,454(+10%)
2020-04-12 21,936(+7.3%)
2020-04-13 23,398(+6.7%)
2020-04-14 25,708(+10.1%)
2020-04-15 28,214(+9.4%)

Here are the total deaths/day starting on 4/1:

1075
1185 (x1.10) exponential!
1353 (x1.14) exponential!
1175 (x0.87)
1212 (x1.03) exponential!
1928 (x1.61) exponential!
1936 (x0.97)
1856 (x0.95)
2078 (x1.12) exponential!
1910 (x0.92)
1482 (x0.76)
1462 (x0.98)
2310 (x1.58) exponential!
2506 (x1.08) exponential!

What's the average daily rate of increase in new deaths over the past 2 weeks?

0.94

That isn't exponential growth, by definition.; 4/15/20, 11:53 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Ken B,

You are a liar. I did not say the virus is not a threat. I said it isn't a threat to the vast majority of us. And it isn't. The people at risk are the same people who are at risk during a bad flu season; the same people who would be at risk if they caught pneumonia (which happens, believe it or not, without a coronavirus in play).

You and others are panic addicts. You want people who have nothing to fear to live in terror.

if a healthy 40 or 50 year old has to fear this virus, then he or she also have to fear the flu. And what would you have him do about the flu? Cower in his basement?

If this virus is such a danger to all of us that we must take these extreme measures, then it sure isn't very contagious--because we weren't taking these measure until three or so weeks ago--yet there weren't corpses piling up in the streets. And the virus has been here since early January, at least.

Stop lying.; 4/15/20, 11:55 PM
n.n said...: "Economic meltdown gives Democrats new hope in Texas"

They're hoping that the SARS-CoV-2 (Wuhan) virus will post big numbers in order to assure their viability. So far, Her choice has produced orders of magnitude less excess deaths than her Choice... equality or something politically congruent. On the positive side, there is evidence that we have mitigated progress of the social contagion, which is a first-order forcing of resource mismanagement and excess deaths. Next, the counts will be normalized for conflation of causes and false positives in order to improve our response while mitigating collateral damage.; 4/15/20, 11:56 PM
effinayright said...: Inga said...
“De gustibus non est disputandum.”

Plena est momenti sui ipsius.
************

Not to mention "Sui esse fui futurus".

Or "Lavo meum sub ubi cum Lux".; 4/15/20, 11:56 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The log graph was linear from yesterday to today. [/sarc]; 4/15/20, 11:56 PM
Ken B said...: Kyjo
Are you saying that on average for the past 2 weeks
(Deaths day n+1) = 0.94 * ( deaths day n) ?

If not what exactly do you mean by that 0.94?; 4/16/20, 12:00 AM
Big Mike said...: I am not remotely alarmist.

That’s your opinion.

I take risk management seriously.

I sometimes taught risk management. Risks have to be assessed, evaluated, monitored, mitigation strategies developed, and ultimately accepted — if you think you can plan a program that is risk free then you are delusional. I have asserted that you, personally, can afford to be alarmist because the costs of the shutdown are being born by someone else and not you. You have never given me a reason to doubt the validity of my assertion.

You can see lots here denying the virus is any kind of threat at all. Anne said so explicitly.

That’s not how I read it. I think they are saying that it appears COVID-19 represents no greater risk than many others we accept and press on with our daily lives — flu, auto accidents, environmental cancers, for instance. That attitude may have seemed extreme in early February, but now it is starting to look prescient. And that is no thanks to the dim lightbulbs who populate the bureaucracies at the FDA and CDC.; 4/16/20, 12:01 AM
Ken B said...: Anne
Several of us quoted you. People can scroll back if they want. You are, understandably, walking back your stupid statement.; 4/16/20, 12:01 AM
Mark said...: You forget that when Magnum P.I. was on (the gang all being Vietnam War vets), it was only five years since the end of the fall of Saigon in 1975. The war was still very fresh in people's minds.; 4/16/20, 12:01 AM
Drago said...: Anne-I-Am: "Ken B, You are a liar. I did not say the virus is not a threat. I said it isn't a threat to the vast majority of us."

Anne, that distinction was thrown away over several months back at Althouseblog right about the time certain commenters figured out that if they could position themselves as the only caring human beings around these parts if they started calling everyone denialists (you know, like Holocaust deniers...and Climate Deniers....and Rape Deniers) and then saying that it would be necessary to complete shutter the nation for as long as it takes....and they meant that.

What it really boils down to is the usual suspects using this pandemic to advance every far left cause that's on the books and couldn't get enacted any other way on top of driving the economy into a depression in order to get rid of Trump.; 4/16/20, 12:02 AM
stephen cooper said...: there are millions of people like me in the world, but statistics are what they are and I am one of the few who is posting here among those millions.

If you want me to pray for you, just ask.
If you want me to pray for the mental health of a loved one in these times, feel free to ask, but I know lots of nuns who are better at praying than I am. It won't be easy for any of us ---- praying for others is not easy, unless you are Jesus, for whom, as a creator, things were both easier and much more difficult than they are for us, God's creatures, even when we are at our best ---- and we are not all that often at our best, at least I amn't. If you want me to pray for the spiritual health of a loved one, feel free to ask. If you want me to pray for the good health of a loved one, just ask.

Sometimes I communicate with people on theological topics (it is nonsensical to think that the exact topic is important) and they get angry at me (who do you think you are? they will ask, but I know who I am --- and I am humble about it, I am one of millions or tens of millions of LOSERS IN THIS WORLD who nevertheless LOVE GOD WITH ALL OUR HEARTS) and trust me, I do not sleep well for days, thinking of the harmful thoughts in their hearts ..... BUT THAT DOES NOT MATTER ....

nothing scares me, really. there are not many people you will ever meet who have lived year after year without a guardian angel and i am one of them. like i said, if you want me to pray for someone you care about, I will be more than happy to do it. What do you have to lose?
when was the last time someone offered to pray to God for someone you loved and also said, hey, don't expect my guardian angel to pray for that person too, because I do not have one.... just pray to God tonight, ask God to ask that guy on the internet who CLAIMED NOT TO HAVE A GUARDIAN ANGEL to pray for you, and remember, today is not today, tomorrow is not tomorrow. Time, the poor creature, has been more or less a plaything not only of God's (not really, God loves and honors Time) but of almost everyone's, not including me (and MANY MANY OTHERS WHO DO NOT POST COMMENTS ON THE INTERNET, but that is another story), at this moment, because I remember that one time I understood that Time itself is just a small little creature, just as afraid in this world as most of us are, and I understood that Time was so so grateful that I understood .....
maybe because, long ago, I told my guardian angel that someone else needed an angel more than I did .....
and trust me, I will NEVER EVER get a single cent for being a preacher, I WILL NEVER EVER be respected as a truth-teller

but I will pray for anyone you want me to pray for, and so will all the nuns and monks who pray for whoever I ask them to pray for.

and yes, faith healing is a thing,; 4/16/20, 12:04 AM
Mark said...: And it's one thing for an American to criticize the country and its government. It's another thing entirely for some non-American to do it.; 4/16/20, 12:04 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Ken lies without compunction about what people have said about the pandemic and our response to it. Perhaps he is just careless. The blood libels he has tossed around are basically unforgiveable, though.; 4/16/20, 12:05 AM
Birkel said...: Funniest comment yet: ARM claims to have a friend.

I await the complete collapse of Canadian society.
I encourage their efforts to flatline the economic curve.

I skipped most of the idiotic back and forth.
Here is my summary:
Concern troll is concerned.
Inga says stupid things.
Drago mocks.
Some folks worry about economic collapse.
Some folks worry about individual rights.

I guaran-damn-tee all of you, when the economy collapses (and if this lockdown bull shit continues it is an unpredictable matter of when) all the other concerns will amount to nothing. Try being fucking hungry and talking about individual rights. Or not getting sick when you're hungry.

This shit right here is Cloward-Piven level destruction.
And the lockdown shot has to end or things will get much more interesting than we prefer.; 4/16/20, 12:07 AM
Drago said...: Anne, you will have also noticed that the entire democrat party has moved strongly into ChiCom Wuhan lab coverup mode since there is now emerging evidence that patient zero for this virus is a lab worker from that Wuhan lab way back in December and the ChiCom government executed a coverup while simultaneously allowing the virus to escape.

This is why the ChiCom apologists and propagandists like democrats Schumer and Murphy and Pelosi and US media and bloggerees like ARM and LLR-lefty Chuck et al have gone into overdrive to protect the ChiCom's and transfer culpability to Trump.; 4/16/20, 12:07 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Ken,

You are a liar. I did not say that it poses no risk. And I am not walking back what was not a stupid statement.

Clearly, those on this site who do not argue in bad faith understood what I said--and have indicated so. You are so invested in your own sanctimony that you cannot comprehend what others say, if it doesn't comport with your beliefs.

That anyone continues to bother with you and the harpy baffles me. I certainly shan't.; 4/16/20, 12:08 AM
Birkel said...: P.S. Exponential growth can also be negative.

I fucking hate concern trolls.; 4/16/20, 12:08 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: I live next to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. It has been closed for a few weeks now. Two years ago it was closed because Kilauea was erupting. Mostly the trails, roads, and overlooks were still usable, so the Park Service allowed it to stay open, w/o services.
Park visitors did bad things. They parked in random places, they threw trash all over, there was vandalism.
I have a friend who works at the park. Today she told me that they were trying to open the park again for locals only, but they were running into bureaucratic obstacles. They aren't allowed to discriminate between locals and tourists, and if they just re-open the park, the governor would be upset because the park was attracting out of state visitors. Three months ago, the governor would have said that the beauty of the park was that it attracted out of state visitors.
This is insane. Stop the lockdown now.; 4/16/20, 12:10 AM
Ken B said...: Anne
You explicitly said it wasn’t a “dangerous” virus. If you want to draw a distinction between that and “a threat” ... I ain’t buying.; 4/16/20, 12:11 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Birkel,

You are absolutely right. Hunger has a way of focusing the mind.

Those who blather on about Panic! Panic! Exponential Panic! lack the imagination to understand what true panic will look like.

I think the lockdown was at first, for the most part, rooted in good intentions. Now the rational and wise want to end it, because they foresee a terrible consequence of continuing it.

Those who advocate its continuance until some undetermined time are either malignant or useful idiots.; 4/16/20, 12:12 AM
Birkel said...: Yancey Ward,
This Ken B concern troll has lied about me and about Dave Begley in ibvomious ways.
He invented a conversation (or misattributed it) to me in which I took no part.
He lies about Dave Begley wishing illness on another human; Begley confused an acronym.

Ken B is a lying troll.
And a certain racist fopdoodle is banned.; 4/16/20, 12:14 AM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: You know, it struck me a long time ago that in a lot of those shows from 70s and 80s, the places where they were set were really, really dingy and dirty. None of them look bright and clean.

The classic b&w Fleischer Popeye shorts are very distinctive in this way. Lots of crumbling plaster with exposed lathe, mattresses with springs popping out...

It's a very "Depression" look, and completely different from the Warner, MGM & Disney toons in the same era.; 4/16/20, 12:14 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Lewis Wetzel,

How fortunate you are! I ran the Hawaii Bird Sanctuary marathon a year ago December. I stayed in a little house right at the top of the long, long hill up from Hilo. I stayed over a few days and hobbled around the park. How amazingly gorgeous. And I am something of a lava freak. I just find its myriad forms fascinating.; 4/16/20, 12:15 AM
Ken B said...: Dave Begley did a nudge nudge wink wink act wishing Lou Gehrig's Disease on a guy who wrote a column.; 4/16/20, 12:15 AM
narciso said...: I guess why i didnt gotten to it, 70s nyc looked very depressed,and feral, barney miller mined humor from it.; 4/16/20, 12:16 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Unknown,

I remember those Popeye cartoons. And you are right. Funny, to only notice it now.; 4/16/20, 12:17 AM
Birkel said...: Ken B is once again lying and everybody knows it.
He is a bad faith commenter.

And a certain racist fopdoodle is banned.; 4/16/20, 12:17 AM
narciso said...: I was eatching of all things the ricketeeer , produced by the same fellow who would do the captain america film 20 years later and that film had a shiny gloss like the indiana jones ones; 4/16/20, 12:21 AM
Mark said...: Those governors that were disposed to lockdown for a long time because they were afraid of any risk are discovering that their state's tax revenues are going to fall very short. They need money coming in as much as anyone else, and the federal government cannot simply go on printing Monopoly money forever to give to the states.

With all the added public debt, either our own country (the Fed) can buy up the government bonds, which is essentially the same as just printing it off, or we have to sell the bonds to willing purchasers. And if there are not enough Americans willing to buy the bonds, then they will sell them to foreigners.

How much of our public debt does China hold now???; 4/16/20, 12:21 AM
Birkel said...: The movies of the 70s reflected the hopelessness of the era. Individual semi-good guys had to enforce justice themselves. Disaster movies. Crime and corrupt police.

The 80s were optimistic kids with their futures in front of them. And overcoming big obstacles. Reagan was hopeful and so was the decade.

If this shit keeps up we'll be lucky to have movies.; 4/16/20, 12:21 AM
stephen cooper said...: 1967 was a long time ago

I wish you could spend just a few moments with the THOUSANDS of wonderful people I have met since that day in 1967 when I told my guardian angel

"You really really do not want to be here for the rest of the ride, I do not want you to suffer along with me, I WANT YOU TO go find someone who needs you more than I do"

Like I said, hate on me all you want, but I guarantee you that there are lots and lots of wonderful people in this world who will pray with hearts full of love for anyone I ask them to pray for ....

ask God tonight to bless someone you care about.
Forget about me, you do not need me to pray for you BECAUSE GOD LOVES YOU

if you were alive in 1967 that is good, because whatever you experienced in that year is eternal and God loved you then and God loves you now AND I REMEMBER AND SO DOES MY GUARDIAN ANGEL FROM BACK IN THE DAY BEFORE i was abandoned

if you were born afterwards, well, it is quite possible that YOU REMEMBER and if you remember YOU KNOW that God loves you as much as God loves me and trust me

YOU ARE A BILLIONAIRE ON THAT SCALE.

but please please please do not desire anything that is unworthy of your desire.
GOD CREATED YOU.; 4/16/20, 12:22 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: "Dangerous" viruses for which we do not/did not ruin the economy and endanger people's well-being: all influenza viruses in the past 100 years; polio; meningitis; rotovirus; norovirus; Zika; hanta virus; human immuno-deficiency virus.

My, my the list is long.

Let me be precise for the Concerned Canadian: the Chinese Lung AIDS is no more dangerous than any of the above, and less dangerous than many of them.

After this, talk to the hand, you lying POS.; 4/16/20, 12:23 AM
Kyjo said...: My comment @11:53pm: Sorry, I screwed up somewhere. I think I reversed 1928 and 1936 when I entered them in my calculator; likewise 1482 and 1462. Then I did some other thing I don't even know when averaging them. Sigh. Let me write this out again:

1075
1185 (x1.10)
1353 (x1.14)
1175 (x0.87)
1212 (x1.03)
1928 (x1.59)
1936 (x1.00)
1856 (x0.96)
2078 (x1.12)
1910 (x0.92)
1482 (x0.78)
1462 (x0.99)
2310 (x1.58)
2506 (x1.08)

1.1 + 1.14 + 0.87 + 1.03 + 1.59 + 1 + 0.96 + 1.12 + 0.92 + 0.78 + 0.99 + 1.58 + 1.08 = 14.16

Divide by 14 = 1.01.

OK then, very slight exponential growth in daily new deaths. My apologies. We'll see what deaths look like tomorrow.; 4/16/20, 12:23 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "I was eatching of all things the ricketeeer , produced by the same fellow who would do the captain america film 20 years later and that film had a shiny gloss like the indiana jones ones"

You were watching Rick Astley videos?; 4/16/20, 12:24 AM
Birkel said...: Mark,
Pensioners are going to get screwed the worst. States will cut paid benefits below promised levels. That is baked in if we keep going. State and local governments are going to have their curves flattened.

Universities will enter BK.

It's not all bad news.; 4/16/20, 12:24 AM
narciso said...: Indeed anne i am, and ebola is savage meninghitis is rather harrowing as well.; 4/16/20, 12:25 AM
Mark said...: Who would have ever thought that Jim-Bob would plump out when he grew up?; 4/16/20, 12:26 AM
narciso said...: Not on a dare, although this seems to be a macabre rick roll.; 4/16/20, 12:26 AM
Ken B said...: Kyjo
Thank you for admitting your error.
Your calculation isn’t quite sound still, but we are disagreeing on whether a section of a graph looks straight.
We will see over the next week or so.; 4/16/20, 12:31 AM
Yancey Ward said...: No, Kyjo, you were doing right with the very first comment when you related the new deaths to the cumulative deaths at day N-1; this is why the curve has been bending down towards an asymptote in the logarithmic graph- the day to day increases as a percentage of the previous total has been in decline just like you showed in that first comment. It won't go in a straight line, of course, but overall the second derivative of the total deaths curve is less than zero.

This is easier seen if you put into Excel and take moving averages- the best is to do a 7 day moving average because it smoothes out the weekend effects- of which the past one is fairly significant in the western world.; 4/16/20, 12:34 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Anne-I-Am said...
Lewis Wetzel,
How fortunate you are! I ran the Hawaii Bird Sanctuary marathon a year ago December.
Is that the place at the end of Pi'i Mauna Drive? In the Golf Course subdivision? Past the Volcano winery? I've heard there are good biking trails there, never tried them.; 4/16/20, 12:35 AM
narciso said...: remember when they said this wasnt possible; 4/16/20, 12:36 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Lewis,

I meant the marathon started at the top of that long hill.

I stayed in a neighborhood a little before the golf course. About a half a mile maybe before the turn into the golf course. The marathon started at the golf course.

I went to the winery the day before the race. Had a nice little tasting. Met a guy who works for Green Mountain, making K-Cups! That struck me as funny; I don't know why.

I wasn't prepared for how cold it was--the house of course had no heat. Had to go to Target to buy warm clothes.

The race was deceptive--mostly downhill (uphill at the end, the bastard) and hard on the quads. Which is why I was hobbling after.; 4/16/20, 12:41 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: If the growth curve is linear it doesn't make sense to look at it's growth as exponential. You end up arguing about exponents of 0.98 vs exponents of 1.02.
Use the right tools, fer Christ's sake.; 4/16/20, 12:41 AM
StephenFearby said...: In other news...

Times of London

Leaders support global truce to turn fire on coronavirus

"International leaders are throwing their weight behind a proposal for a global ceasefire as the number of coronavirus cases worldwide passes the 2 million mark.

President Macron of France said yesterday that President Trump, President Xi, and Boris Johnson had all confirmed to him that they backed the plea for a truce made by António Guterres, secretary-general of the UN.

Mr Macron said he was hopeful of securing the support of President Putin, leader of the fifth permanent member country of the UN security council."

So far the highest-rated comment (by Peter Bradshaw):

Polonium teas and bat soups all round!; 4/16/20, 12:41 AM
narciso said...: All the news is geared to demoralize this many dead this many cronically ill, consequently this much more of a deep freeze, hcq is always looked dowm apart rendesvir is almost entirely ignored no hope is permitted in the 'blank pages'; 4/16/20, 12:42 AM
narciso said...: Ok but what are they actually doing proactively, bueller bueller.; 4/16/20, 12:44 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Here is the part of the Kyjo comment that matters for this discussion:

2020-04-01 4,746(+25%)
2020-04-02 5,821(+23%)
2020-04-03 7,006(+20%)
2020-04-04 8,359(+19%)
2020-04-05 9,534(+14%)
2020-04-06 10,746(+13%)
2020-04-07 12,674(+18%)
2020-04-08 14,610(+15%)
2020-04-09 16,466(+13%)
2020-04-10 18,544(+13%)
2020-04-11 20,454(+10%)
2020-04-12 21,936(+7.3%)
2020-04-13 23,398(+6.7%)
2020-04-14 25,708(+9.9%)

This is clearly not exponential any longer. To return to exponential growth, that last 9.9% will have to continue for multiple days, or grow, but the trend since April first is from 25% growth in cumulative deaths to 9.9% on the latest day in that list. We can add April 15th growth in cumulative deaths which is 8.8%.; 4/16/20, 12:44 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Anne-I-am-
Was it a paved road? because that would be the Mauna Loa Strip Road.
It can get cold here at 4,000 feet. The record at my house is 38 degrees F on a cold, clear winter night.; 4/16/20, 12:46 AM
Kyjo said...: @Ken B:

OK, will you admit I wasn't trying to fudge something with my screenshot of the Worldometers graph? I can still stay this: the rate of exponential growth has clearly declined, which is certainly illustrated in the graphs.

Can you clarify what you think is unsound about my corrected calculation? It seems pretty straightforward, beyond my earlier fat-fingering on the calculator.; 4/16/20, 12:46 AM
walter said...: Mark said...Just what we need -- unreliable numbers.
--
Always making more.; 4/16/20, 12:55 AM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: The Rocketeer started out as a comic book by Dave Stevens (a pinup artist himself), who was doing an homage to 30s adventure pulps and classic pinups. Cliff Secord's girlfriend "Betty" was modeled on Bettie Page, with the most famous single panel (the WOW! panel) a shout-out to her nude modeling career.

In the comic, the rocket suit that Cliff finds was stolen from pulp hero Doc Savage, who appears in-story with his chief sidekicks Ham & Monk. Since Stevens didn't have the rights to those characters they were never named, and Cliff comes to the incorrect conclusion that it was Howard Hughes. The movie version, which I found a bit lackluster, goes with Cliff's bad deduction as the real truth. (Interesting that it is easier to put a real person in a work than a trademarked fictional one!).

Stevens had so much commercial work that he didn't get to do that many issues of The Rocketeer before passing away at an early age. The comic gets rebooted with new artists from time to time, but it has never been the same.; 4/16/20, 12:55 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Kyjo,

There was nothing wrong with the comment you wrote that I quoted a few minutes back- those lists of numbers relating new deaths on day N to total deaths at day N-1 are conclusive that deaths in the US are no longer increasing exponentially. You can literally see that on the Worldometers logarithmic curve, despite Ken's claims that the graph is still straight. I suspect he is trying to salvage his claim by looking only at the very end of the graph- the part I was sarcastic about in an earlier comment. In the ridiculous limit, you just look at the curve section from day N-1 to day N- that of course is always going to be a straight line.; 4/16/20, 12:55 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Additionally, take Wetzel's critique seriously, but think about what it was he said there.; 4/16/20, 12:59 AM
Jon Ericson said...: Come gather 'round people, wherever you roam
And admit that the waters around you have grown
And accept it that soon you'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin' or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'; 4/16/20, 1:00 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Lewis,

The road to the house began with a paved road. It went past a little market and a cafe. Then I turned left onto another, smaller paved road, and then onto roads that were rough and broken.

The House; 4/16/20, 1:05 AM
Yancey Ward said...: In short, the new deaths to cumulative deaths can't be described as proportional any longer- it has dropped from 25% on April 1st to 8.8% yesteday. The second derivative is less than zero. For it to be exponential in the log graph, the second derivative has to be greater than or equal to zero.

Deaths can always reaccelerate, but they aren't doing that right now, and they aren't likely to in the next week either since new cases of coronavirus have been stuck around the same 26k-33k for over two weeks now. We would have to be doing an increasingly worse job treating such patients to get a sudden jump in deaths with flat new cases.; 4/16/20, 1:07 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Here is an exponential series:

1, 1.5, 2.25, 3.375, 5.0625

Here is a non-exponential series:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.; 4/16/20, 1:11 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: Facebook keeps serving me an ad for a $4000 toilet. Answer: no.; 4/16/20, 1:48 AM
Michael McNeil said...: Of course, I was young, and like almost everyone else here, I read very few books when I was young ,,,,,

Speak for yourself. That's certainly wrong — at least if one takes the “like almost everyone else here” seriously.; 4/16/20, 4:07 AM
stevew said...: It is reported that there is little to no stress on the country's healthcare treatment operations. Thus these recent deaths come to those who are getting the best of care. Couple that with a declining rate and you can understand the increasing calls for re-opening society.

Meanwhile, it is breathlessly reported overnight that patrons of a homeless shelter in Boston (Pine Street) have a ridiculously high confirmed number of asymptomatic cases of Covid. Shouldn't this be good news? Transmission is high, illness is low.

Begin the great re-opening. Now.; 4/16/20, 5:07 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Well KenB is on to something here. If MLK had stayed home, washing his hands, He could have retired happily!; 4/16/20, 5:14 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Cartoons? Remember the series that used caricatures of the Hollywood stars? Merry Melodies?; 4/16/20, 5:20 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Hope America learns a lesson about living in the Green New Deal outta this lockdown!; 4/16/20, 5:22 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Whitmer == Greta??; 4/16/20, 5:25 AM
grackle said...: Invitation any poet who may be out there. Take the plunge and post a few lines.

Corona3

Stores with open books
Views, likes, subs, it’s all there
Splayed as much as displayed
And stuck in the merch

Rogan rode the wave
Don’t eat like a slave
Sleep when you’re tired
No matter how you’re wired

Entrepreneur
He got in early
For the hell of it
Started doing long

Interviews with different dwellers
You know, back in the days when
Your Mother made your bed
And you ran in any direction

But only where you were led
They could declare, like obscene tellers,
Anything: ideas,
diverse vulgarities
irregularities
in the Matrix
Endorsing bombshells like hot checks

Too much collagen
Saw fit to enter many a heifer
And not a few hogs
And folks nodded their heads
PowerfulJRE-ing

Going down for the mail
Going to outrun Hell
Throw away your waste
Where it can’t be traced; 4/16/20, 5:39 AM
Lewis said...: Chance Of Blue II

I suppose, to confess, I always wanted
My sky to be blue. With some cloud,
To prefer us to change. A chance
Beautiful. Somewhere in the rocks
Looking towards the shore and knowing there
That family had a picnic and those, at a late hour,
Were rescued from a summer shower.
And because the sun must shine (it must)
There was someone, the children that picked seashells
And wondered and compared and forever were told
“The sea is a dangerous monster.”
And were happy, there were some people, old perhaps,
Sharing their unflasked, metallic tea,
Trying to gather the sun, who said
“I love you.” “I, too, my dear.”
“Isn’t it beautiful>” “My love, it is beautiful.”
“Aren’t we happy?” “Happiness is what we are.”; 4/16/20, 5:44 AM
Lewis said...: A Chance Of Blue I

What will happen will happen: The crowd
Of millions that, perhaps, have their own
Destiny: Accident jostled an understanding
That 'did not exist'. To look, completely,
In your eyes and smile. Something
O so innocent: to forget fear.

We both see, we hope, the same chance of blue.
The sky above just the destiny that destroys.
To wander beyond what is possible:
Men hope it will follow. Wanting
What our cowardice has denied us.; 4/16/20, 6:04 AM
Lewis said...: Justice

The words are gone – the impotence of the poet.
I am no Jonah – do not wish to declare
A dead humanity – do not wish to declare
Apocalypse, Armageddon, holocaust.
Merely to weak to declare another’s wrong
My own so harsh, so bitter, so just.; 4/16/20, 6:10 AM
Ignorance is Bliss said...: Ken B said...

It would also be exactly exponential growth though, exponent 0, to answer your question as if it were a serious question.

To answer his question correctly, it would be exponential with a base of 1. Base of 0 would give a horizontal of zero everywhere. Greater than one curves upward (on a linear plot) base of less than one curves downward.

Exponent can't be constant, it is the independent variable, the x value on the graph.; 4/16/20, 6:10 AM
Lewis said...: Return Home

I was hoping for a punishment
With grace – to be somewhere
So terrible that the Angel must appear
Before me, here, now, listening; 4/16/20, 6:11 AM
Lewis said...: Ask Not

Falling down – and, last night, probably
Bashed about – to deserve happiness
Or be punished. Please don’t ask.; 4/16/20, 6:12 AM
Lewis said...: Morning Happiness

Oh, in the heart of Hell - or, a voyeur
Staring at what is impossible – happiness.
Somewhat numb, glad for an unfeeling,
Hoping to make this just a dream – then
I’ll wake up, open the curtains, stare at what was
Once my life. I’ll be tortured by hope,
Begin, again, to say the words “I love you.”; 4/16/20, 6:13 AM
Fernandinande said...: Here's my three cents:

-- It doesn't matter whether any WuCooties numbers are exponential or not, that's always a temporary phase.

-- Shutdown of businesses and restrictions on people's basic rights was a terrible mistake. This isn't a national emergency by any stretch of the imagination, or a state emergency in any state.

-- Yes, Ken B is a liar.; 4/16/20, 6:19 AM
Lewis said...: Blue Eyes

I

I will not tell how I tried
To sing her into my arms.
Neither bending forward nor backward will do.
A murderous humiliation.
And what was bright has been lost now.

A poet is a wretched man. As if
We were stepped on and began to sing.
But death must make even
The most perverse silent. Bored
With all this glamour and prose.
I merely want what is true.

II

A smile, two eyes so beautiful
I could only die. The burnt, racial
Stain of the brown. leaves of autumn.
And, in winter, dirty beneath the snow.
You found I was not all white.
Just one of those slaves. Not an Angel.
So you went. I love you; 4/16/20, 6:28 AM
grackle said...: Hey, Lewis:

Very good stuff you have posted. Thank you for answering the call. I visited your website and judging just from the volume of material you must be very dedicated to the craft. I’ll visit again and dig in deeper but right now it’s going to take awhile to give your offerings here a decent read.

Til later ….

In the meantime it would be wonderful it there were others to be so brave as Lewis. It’s not easy to lay your words out, the naked you on the internet, risking attack and assorted random snideries.; 4/16/20, 6:52 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: wholelottasplainin' said...
And how was this nameless Taiwanese friend of yours qualified to judge our lack of seriousness?

Right now he can point to the vast difference in outcomes. It is impossible to argue that the Taiwanese did not outperform our own country in meeting this particular challenge.; 4/16/20, 7:11 AM
iowan2 said...: +3700. That's the number of deaths NY added to their COVID19 death total,Tuesday 4/14/20.

That represents deaths NY ASSUMEs, without evidence, were caused by the COVID 19 virus.

The numbers used to track this event, have always been an illusion. The total cases, illusion. Deaths? Sounds simple enough, but now science is kicked to the curb, and bureaucratic narrative setting takes over. It was bad enough that 95 year olds with 18 months of hospice care died OF the virus and not WITH the virus. Now the dead are just ASSUMED.

The people need to take over and get back to business. I hope officials start charging and arresting people, and those people demand a jury trial. I'm voting to acquit before I hear open statements.; 4/16/20, 7:26 AM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Cartoons? Remember the series that used caricatures of the Hollywood stars? Merry Melodies?

Yes, those were Merrie Melodies toons, one was The Coo Coo Nut Grove.

At the time, the distinction between Looney Tunes & Merrie Melodies was that the former were black & white, and the later were color. Eventually they both went color and the distinction became arbitrary. Anyway, I think they did most of those parodies in color.; 4/16/20, 7:38 AM
Lewis said...: The Whale And Parrot
For Anna
(194O-1994)
“All the cod is gone! “
B.B.C. World Service.

I

A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea.
But there are no fish in the sea
And God will tell you who is right and who is wrong.
A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea
And the world will tell you who is right and who is wrong.
Jonah died, was born again, lived back to tell
Who was right and who was wrong.
And the world, did it end, did it begin?
A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea.; 4/16/20, 8:05 AM
Lewis said...: The Whale And Parrot
For Anna
(194O-1994)
“All the cod is gone! “
B.B.C. World Service.

I

A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea.
And God will tell you who is right and who is wrong.
A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea
And the world will tell you who is right and who is wrong.
Jonah died, was born again, lived back to tell
Who was right and who was wrong.
And the world, did it end, did it begin?
A big fish eat me but there are no fish in the sea.; 4/16/20, 8:06 AM
Lewis said...: II

What, in the schematic muddle .of it all,
The stars, the broken galaxies, the effluent
Of no-thing, what began or ended at
This point and at this point, the fallacy
Of forgetting or of being here or there,
Something which said “I love…” and forgot what
It was it loved: and to love! , to begin and
Again! A wish, perhaps, a child’s
Broken Sunday, thinking “Here, alone,
There will be someone that sees.”
Expecting that gladness of recognition
Which, of course, fails -here to there
And only the indecision, the amused surprise
Of a face you’d wish you’d remember.
.
The earth, the taste played by the mouth
Of a child alone and wanting, wanting
I know not what. Though he fights away
The blasphemy of being ‘one’ , it can only
Be fear, the ‘fiery blush’ , the desire
Not to be only Other.; 4/16/20, 8:07 AM
Lewis said...: III

What begins, the force before it begins,
Grunt, inhuman human folly
Of taking a moment (and you forget which)
As sacred: and, yes, it belongs (but it will not)
To this Now of nows: beyond that
The clear space, the land seen free,
The ‘wanton abandon’ and the exhaustion:
Only wishing something was or I was or,
Finally, ‘this was’ : it’s not, mother.; 4/16/20, 8:09 AM
Lewis said...: IV

Once, there was a thought, beginning with –
So, a summer rescue, coming along
In the car, the fiat 500,
And saying, this way (take a drink)
To what you always wanted:
From a distance, I must see
All the untruth that 'should', for a child,
Be hidden: the joke of inconstancy,
The fallacy of ever wanting a mother –
I saw it all -you forget, loins
That bore, that professed to bare me,
That said I was born: I was not.
But then, even earlier, from the day I exited
Your prison, your device, your despair
I knew it was wrong: that you lied, always
Forgetting (or knowing) I was watching,
Why I was silent? For a hand that caressed,
A thought towards me, a sense of saying
“You’re O.K.” But you’re not.
So, dumb, unheard,
‘Beautiful eyes’, there was only the redemption
Of pathetic resistance: did you see?
Could you see? Could you want to see?
And if you did, what would you have done,
Only have beaten the more?; 4/16/20, 8:10 AM
Lewis said...: V
“An angel!" My hair dresser .

It’s merely individual, the four wings cramped,
A slight burn of candlelight
And we say “He’s O.k.” Arid so he is,
Broken not by any peculiar expulsion,
Cracked, rather, by a room.
And endless, endless those scribbled
Petitions back to God. You say
“Land on your feet!” which, of course,
Were broken before, even, the saints
Began their song. Because this age
Is so new, so endlessly new
And he, ancient, has forgotten, again,
How to say ‘Yes! - to God.

So, ‘across the water’ , he will drown,
And, yet, , ‘the attempt is worthy’,
Or, merely, vanity.
How endless the call!
And below him and above him the stair
That could never fail to climb, to descend

-------------------------------------------

For, see, the precipitate stone: up,
Just the barred impossible: a roof,
Those walls, the handle of a door,
Window that cannot open: grubby, entirely?
His closed wings, vicious in a room.
Yes, this is useless. “There is no god.”; 4/16/20, 8:13 AM
Lewis said...: VI

It’s hard, hideous and wrong,
Probably, a vicious joke, a fellow
Who cannot remember (nor right ~is name)
Beginning, perhaps, to listen, ears forced, to God.
“There is no God’ “ and, as Nietzsche
So eloquently put it, ‘God is dead.’
God dead, dead God, I rebel against
All that lies. All’ lies are strong, .
Stronger than truth. I wish I was stronger than lies. ,”

VII

Every hotel from which I was expunged
(But, of course, I did not stay)
Every face that glances backwards
Some kind of lie, all those that lie ,
Into their (or others) pants,
The slight, coarse affair of me even looking,
(Oh, I assure you, a random glance)
Begins and ends with what is least important:
I said (louder still) begins and ends
With what is least important: a dead parrot
Which still will continue to say
The words “I love. ..” or, thus, “I love God.”; 4/16/20, 8:19 AM
Lewis said...: VIII

And think (think again!) it was beyond us,
It was always (why? you should ask) from this-afar.
We began with those hopes (they last to long),
Taking what were mere words
As just God could have said them:
If we were older we would have said:
“These are lies!” but they weren’t.
An attempt to bring us forward that failed.

And then, you said, “I am that I am.”
Blasphemy that must almost be true:
I thought I’d found some word, some devil
Saying, quietly, “Here is a man: Bring him close, bring him home,
Make him speak the word this God demands."
God demands nothing and nor do you.

IX

But the death of unhappiness? That peculiar death
Happening only with happiness? No.
And do I mourn it, desire it, bring it
Back, for it, the resurrection
Of a ghost that one has to know must die? .
And we all have to, wish to, want to
When, having seen death, we know the broken face,
The quiet breath (was she breathing?)
The still dust of this - a life
“Well, you know, was really so superb!”
Yes, we know death, we want it or how else
Say “Yes!” to an end that cannot, forget
The equanimity of her leaving,
Be just. Can one be just? Justice?
Where is justice in this death?; 4/16/20, 8:21 AM
Lewis said...: X

That the truth were told
The balance would hold?
Broken beam, fallen satellite,
Star that burnt or began to burn
(We are too old to with stay the fire)
Forget us: there are other planets, other wheres!
They say, too, life exists there. So, do miss us,
But don’t miss us, destroy us
But don’t merely warm us:
Living is dieing - say thus:
“You are , I don’t k now who you are .”

XI

And to begin -from nothing, again? And why?
There is no beginning, there is no end,
The pity in it, in that century,
The hundred million dead arid the torture
And the murder and the women, the poor men:
Yes, we failed, perhaps, ultimately?
What did we want, ‘only’ to be ‘happy’-?
The worst sin. Or history
Cracked beneath the corps. broken.
Spirit that cannot ask any more questions.

XII

The hooves are running backwards
Over a broken head and “that’s history.” .-
We have grown smaller and, thus, our guilt grows great: .
Magnificent, this pygmy size,
This laughing below our sleeves,
This to large coat turned up at the cuffs. .

So, there we were, laughing on the ramparts,
Broken, of course, a castle whose name,
Even, is unrecallable (could we pronounce it?)
Spouting a name that we’d also forgotten:
Is that possible? Come (but, please, don’t)
Meet my contemporaries: the list of casualties
Is endless, the reason (we are to small) unknown.
That’s us, liars, and not the guts to say
The size of this life no longer suits.
Faded the cotton, the colour, the moment.
Don’t stop to see, my dead ones. I’m small, too.; 4/16/20, 8:23 AM
Lewis said...: XIII

But we still live: this dead breath, this whisper
Of Godlessness, this violence to our name,
This dishonour, the cynical wanting
Of a nothing that will, O I promise, come.
O yes, you dare to live? You live,
You don’t live, you desecrate my dead.
Think of it! Think of it. O God, think.

XIV

I ask, and only I ask “Do I deserve to live?”
No, not only my mother, that vast, broken candle,
Because I asked at birth, ‘a stilled, stunned thing’ ,
Being born, not only not knowing why the silence,
But who, behind the silence, who, not person,
Could not speak. Could not speak! I could not speak. A poet.
Here was, not, was, not. Nothing. Nothing?

XV

She began: again and again, she began:
Yes, she died, curse her, .but she began,
Again and again. And where the strength?
And I a coward- listen to me!
Angels that lie and mock me,
God that smiles in His cruelty,
Shits that bathe in oblivion, listen!
Is it a lie, this end, this mortuary,
This charnel, this final breath:
God, my God, help me to know\y’ (‘to know’?)
To know a grave. You (I hate you, God) please bring me
The peace that’s promised. No? No.

Yet- it is my only duty -I the only last?
Only my duty?
Yet these trees still stand
Green and silver and oblivious.; 4/16/20, 8:27 AM
Lewis said...: XVI

Want, then, the smile, thinking beyond,
Merely, the possibility: guide
Yourself towards the quite legendary path
That, ‘as yet’, does not exist:
The mantrap, the green, the profuse flowers,
The red, the blue, the joke
And, yes, a parrot, the parrot
Speaking those words
You thought would come from God.; 4/16/20, 8:30 AM
Josephbleau said...: Has anyone actually plotted the death rate data and tried to fit it to a model? as you see below there is a very good linear fit, the exponential fit is bad.

A quadratic model is a tiny bit better, not worth the complexity but linear is good so the best model is: Death Rate= 1939 + 1646.2 Day, try it out, plot it and look at the graph.

By pasting my output is not aligned but you can do it yourself.

Date Day Death Rate
4/1/2020 1 4746
4/2/2020 2 5821
4/3/2020 3 7006
4/4/2020 4 8359
4/5/2020 5 9534
4/6/2020 6 10746
4/7/2020 7 12674
4/8/2020 8 14610
4/9/2020 9 16466
4/10/2020 10 18544
4/11/2020 11 20454
4/12/2020 12 21936
4/13/2020 13 23398
4/14/2020 14 25708

Regression Analysis: Death Rate versus Day
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Seq SS Contribution Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Regression 1 616540586 99.19% 616540586 616540586 1476.18 0.000
Day 1 616540586 99.19% 616540586 616540586 1476.18 0.000
Error 12 5011908 0.81% 5011908 417659
Total 13 621552494 100.00%

Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) PRESS R-sq(pred)
646.265 99.19% 99.13% 7290016 98.83%

Coefficients
Term Coef SE Coef 95% CI T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant 1939 365 (1144, 2734) 5.32 0.000
Day 1646.2 42.8 1552.9, 1739.6) 38.42 0.000 1.00

Regression Equation
Death Rate = 1939 + 1646.2 Day

Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations
Obs Death
Rate Fit SE Fit 95% CI Resid Std
Resid Del
Resid HI Cook’s D DFITS
1 4746 3585 328 (2871, 4299) 1161 2.08 2.50 0.257143 0.75 1.46925 R
R Large residual
Residual Plots for Death Rate; 4/16/20, 10:39 AM
Lewis said...: Everything is cowardice. Life is cowardice - - if you think, realy deep. But you are not nor am I. Think, use you rational brain - this is not the plague. Think; 4/16/20, 11:04 AM
Lewis said...: Everyone is bullied into believing.... And, if you don't who, why? Because I think our libertiest are more important than the fucking flu!!!; 4/16/20, 11:07 AM
Kyjo said...: @Yancey, thanks for your comments. I think I got myself tripped up on idea of "exponential growth" involving a rate of increase greater than 1, but of course that rate should be constant or increasing for an exponential growth curve; otherwise a linear series like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 would be exponential. Literally losing sight of the big picture. Sigh.

@Ken B, I think I see the unsoundness you mentioned: I used the wrong denominator (14 rather than 13). OK, let's add in 3/31 data to get the the rate of increase for 4/2, so a denominator of 14 is proper (again, cf. Wikipedia):

2020-03-31 3,806(+28%)
2020-04-01 4,746(+25%)
2020-04-02 5,821(+23%)
2020-04-03 7,006(+20%)
2020-04-04 8,359(+19%)
2020-04-05 9,534(+14%)
2020-04-06 10,746(+13%)
2020-04-07 12,674(+18%)
2020-04-08 14,610(+15%)
2020-04-09 16,466(+13%)
2020-04-10 18,544(+13%)
2020-04-11 20,454(+10%)
2020-04-12 21,936(+7.3%)
2020-04-13 23,398(+6.7%)
2020-04-14 25,708(+10.1%)
2020-04-15 28,214(+9.4%)

(4/1)
940

(4/2)
1075 (x1.15)
1185 (x1.10)
1353 (x1.14)
1175 (x0.87)
1212 (x1.03)
1928 (x1.59)
1936 (x1.00)

(4/9)
1856 (x0.96)
2078 (x1.12)
1910 (x0.92)
1482 (x0.78)
1462 (x0.99)
2310 (x1.58)
2506 (x1.09)

15.32 / 14 = 1.09

If this is "exponential growth," Italy's deaths are still increasing exponentially as well (cf. Wikipedia:

2020-03-31 12,428(+7.2%)
2020-04-01 13,155(+5.8%)
2020-04-02 13,915(+5.7%)
2020-04-03 14,681(+5.5%)
2020-04-04 15,362(+4.6%)
2020-04-05 15,887(+3.4%)
2020-04-06 16,523(+4.0%)
2020-04-07 17,127(+3.7%)
2020-04-08 17,669(+3.2%)
2020-04-09 18,279(+3.4%)
2020-04-10 18,849(+3.1%)
2020-04-11 19,468(+3.3%)
2020-04-12 19,899(+2.2%)
2020-04-13 20,465(+2.8%)
2020-04-14 21,067(+2.9%)
2020-04-15 21,645(+2.7%)

(4/1)
727

(4/2)
760 (x1.05)
766 (x1.01)
681 (x0.89)
525 (x1.54)
636 (x1.21)
604 (x0.94)
542 (x0.90)

(4/9)
610 (x1.13)
570 (x0.93)
619 (x1.09)
431 (x0.70)
566 (x1.31)
602 (x1.06)
578 (x0.96)

14.72 / 14 = 1.05

But it's clear that Italy is no longer in the exponential growth phase of deaths, even just looking at a linear plot.

Maybe we'll see the rate of new deaths begin to accelerate again, as Yancey said. But currently we're not experiencing exponential growth in deaths.; 4/16/20, 11:20 AM
Lewis said...: Get out and shake hands! I'd rather be dead than live in this nightmare! But, 1 it no worse than the flu, 2 no one under 87 is going to die - even my dad whose 97 is not going to die!; 4/16/20, 11:36 AM
Lewis said...: Trying To Listen

“Take the opportunity to listen”
And, though all the chords
Had forced their disgust,
I tried: but there was merely
A laziness, a fallacy of sound
Which toured that mid-ear
Of safe distrust, of distance kept
Because no distance could be understood.
So it was presumed we began
With only an undisciplined cry
And, searching for that word,
The ‘honest genuine’, the strict
Discipline was ‘do not try’.
Those ‘triers’ who where impotent
And strange and finally excluded.; 4/16/20, 11:37 AM
Lewis said...: Suit

The jacket of some dead, left handed chap -
And, now, soiled, unlaundered, wet with the rain,
A fantastic imposition on the neat
Courtesies of these reserved Durham streets -
Neither with the safe and unassumed
(Because there!) reassured flow of learning
Nor with the native anger - ‘a tramp,
Beaten by brooms’. Unsure because unrefered.; 4/16/20, 11:40 AM
Lewis said...: I will Never Be Gone

A wintry airlessness, a tundra between us,
A white impossibility, your belief your nobody,
The dissolution of a thinning ghost.
You would like to dissolve, become nothing -
I will not let you - I’m a stubborn man!
With this faith I can breathe a vacuum,
With this love I can live even death.
And, should you finally force me,
Though I might be gone, I will never - be gone!; 4/16/20, 11:43 AM
Lewis said...: ‘Nothing’

Yes, you may say: “I am nothing.”
That “ ‘Now’ is all I will ever be.”
Yet the earth wills otherwise:
There is death and though you fill
Your days with faithless action,
The endless mantra of a common ‘No!’,
Such wanted dis-appearance
Is only edge, a crescent glimmer
Of what is always dark,
Innocent, tragic, affirmed.
Life, which needs no knowing,
Lives you without you.; 4/16/20, 11:45 AM
Josephbleau said...: If you fit the exponential model (using the Gauss-Newton method) Death Rate= Theta1 * exp( Theta2 * Day ) to the crono death data you get:

Death Rate = 5542.45 * exp(0.113334 * Day)

But the mean square error is 1.02 Million so the +/- 2 sigma error bar is +/- 2000 deaths per day, so we find no evidence that the data fits an exponential function. A least squares linear fit has a +/- 50 deaths per day 2 sigma error bar. with the prediction equation Death Rate = 1939 + 1646.2 * Day.

I can't find a standard exponential or logistic or log logistic model that fits better than a linear regression.; 4/16/20, 12:21 PM
Paco Wové said...: Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19; 4/16/20, 1:06 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: Excitement today. Just discovered that the IRS hit my checking account my ester day for our 2019 taxes. We filed through. TurboTax, and they essentially require that you set up the April 15 payment. Except, taxes aren’t due for everyone else for another three months. Filed early because I was trying to qualify for a loan for the new house. The other bad news is that money is flowing like sand from my checking account. The good news though is that we close in 2 1/2 hours on the new house. It’s taken almost six months to put together and get a loan. I was ready to pay cash, and be done with it, but things finally broke in our direction right after the first of the month.; 4/16/20, 1:35 PM
Lewis said...: I'm 'derivative', said Martina (2018) - that rankled - until I thought she can't see irony?! I mean, literally, it's part of her illness - of course, I'm not 'original', I allude, by style and means, to everything in history! How can you write 'full verse' today without the rictus grin of death!?; 4/16/20, 3:47 PM
Lewis said...: Bruce, fck the taxes - get a gun!; 4/16/20, 3:50 PM
Lewis said...: Anne, without music you must be either a dog or god - I forgot that. Actually Nietzsche said to live alone you must be either a philosopher or a God!!; 4/16/20, 3:54 PM
Lewis said...: Nick Cave - the Higson-Bosun blues; 4/16/20, 3:58 PM
Lewis said...: It's always been 'https://www.facebook.com/lewis' - just request friendship as 'althouse' then you can read how I plague others!?; 4/16/20, 4:17 PM
Lewis said...: higgs -boson; 4/16/20, 7:15 PM
Lewis said...: A Month Past.

Winter sky but lately dawned
White and grey –
And on the horizon
Other colours.

A month past
And with it something else.

Little succulent meats
Rest on the tongue –
Nauseated I spit them out.

This chameleon age
Seems so solid,
Grand dowager
And eternal aether.

A skylark blown
Through nothingness
On a cold wind –
Gravity has eluded,
Broken rubble
Burning the stars.; 4/16/20, 8:31 PM
Lewis said...: I was thinking of Sylvia Plath - 'Winter Trees' - when I wrote that.; 4/16/20, 8:34 PM
Lewis said...: But I was in a real terror - idcome back from my first blush with Martina and I was homeless - sitting in a park with a 'cup-a-soup' and a can of lager!; 4/16/20, 8:43 PM
Lewis said...: 'How to be rational' that was my thought. Second how to be good?; 4/16/20, 8:50 PM
grackle said...: As for Lewis’s offerings: Heartfelt, I’m sure. A series of meditations on some themes – a couple of which are Loss and the search for meaning. His style incorporates inventive phrases and imagery which I see as his main strength. Example:

Broken not by any peculiar expulsion,
Cracked, rather, by a room.

Here’s an excerpt from one of my favorites:

V
“An angel!" My hair dresser .

It’s merely individual, the four wings cramped,
A slight burn of candlelight
And we say “He’s O.k.” Arid so he is,
Broken not by any peculiar expulsion,
Cracked, rather, by a room.
And endless, endless those scribbled
Petitions back to God. You say
“Land on your feet!” which, of course,
Were broken before, even, the saints
Began their song. Because this age
Is so new, so endlessly new
And he, ancient, has forgotten, again,
How to say ‘Yes! - to God.

Unless I’m mistaken, Lewis doesn’t have a hairdresser … so I’m going to assume that he is assuming a persona in this poem. The language fluidly alternates between refined and conversational, of which “A slight burn of candlelight,” and “Land on your feet!” are examples.

All in all, a read worth the time. Thank you, Lewis.; 4/17/20, 7:50 AM