April 9, 2020

At the Pink Moon Café...

68047767-05B7-466F-8252-43E609C5A285_1_201_a

... is there anything else you need to talk about?

The photo shows the moon at 6:26 a.m. (one minute after the "actual" sunrise time). I'm calling it the Pink Moon Café because that's the name of the café. The actual super pink moon occurred on the previous night. It's not called the pink moon because it's supposed to look pink. It's named after a pink wildflower that blooms at this time of year. Phlox subulata.

201 comments:

1 – 200 of 201   Newer›   Newest»
Ken B said...

Not as many people have died as some predicted. The denialists are angry and want revenge.

stevew said...

The wind is howling pretty good in these parts tonight. We appear to be close on selling our house. We are submitting an offer on a new place. Fingers crossed.

Everyone I deal with on a regular basis is getting a bit antsy. One of my sisters had to layoff some folks today. Layoffs are among the worst things a manager is demanded to do.

Buck up kiddo, the beginning of the end of this mess has passed.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

Glorious day in western Washington. People out walking, biking in groups, hanging out on benches and in parks, all the usual pent-up energy and longing that greets the first true days of Spring. Naturally, it got me thinking about the things that push against a state of lockdown. In my part of the world, weather is definitely going to be factor. Nothing will chip at it quite like a succession of beautiful days.

I may not approve of it but I get why the police have to resort to seemingly draconian things, like arresting paddle boarders, in warmer climes.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

“Not as many people have died as some predicted. The denialists are angry and want revenge.”

That makes no sense, Ken. You’re going to need to explain it for us slow lads.

Drago said...

Cracker Emcee: "That makes no sense, Ken. You’re going to need to explain it for us slow lads."

It makes perfect sense when you consider Ken B sees that his days of lauding himself and virtue signalling will soon be at an end and there is but a short time to rewrite that which actually occurred.

Bay Area Guy said...

We're gonna try for a Good Friday day trip tomorrow. The Original Mel's Diner (from American Grafitti) is open on Lombard St in SF (take out only, of course). Grab some food there, then, it's a real easy drive across the Golden Gate Bridge to Marin. Then, depending on my adventurous spirit, either go to Sausalito or Tiburon or Stinson Beach to each lunch and run the dog. Kids are coming too - they're sick of being stuck at home.

Bay Area Guy said...

"eat lunch" not "each lunch". Duh.

Phidippus said...

This one.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F6%2F69%2FPhlox_subulata_IMG_4176_Sammalleimu_C.JPG%2F1280px-Phlox_subulata_IMG_4176_Sammalleimu_C.JPG&f=1&nofb=1

Mark said...
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Mark said...
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narciso said...

<a href="https://english.mojahedin.org/i/iran-coronavirus-update-more-than-23100-dead> yet they still want to reward the mullah </a> the eu and our betters.

Known Unknown said...

"The denialists are angry and want revenge."

Name them.

Known Unknown said...

A pink moon is on its way.

walter said...

Failing models reduce Ken to garden variety troll.

YoungHegelian said...

I'm gonna go out on a limb here & predict that when they finally get around to doing random testing on a large population in the US that the medical authorities will be astounded by the percentage that has the antibodies.

I'm basing this on 1) the large asymptomatic majority on the cruise ship 2) the anecdotal evidence coming in from everywhere I look that "Hey, I had that shit in Jan/Feb/March!" (including me in that anecdotal crew) & 3) the MIT Boston area water purification plant fecal examination for evidence of COVID RNA, which showed far more evidence of infection than previously thought.

robother said...

What can it mean, the appearance of a Pink Moon heralding the end of The Bern's campaign?
Commies are Red
Socialists are Pink
Bernie's dead
And Biden can't think

GBnative said...

In Wisconsin, county boards in some lake-country areas are asking commuters with second homes to stay in the cities where we belong. After all, if we take ill while spring cleaning or just relaxing in the forest-scented fresh air, we’ll overtax their little rural hospitals and displace the worthy locals.

That’s fair, but only if I’ll get a rebate on my cottage’s property taxes. And, in return, the locals can promise not to accept transfer to our better-equipped metropolitan hospitals should their own conditions worsen.

I’m not going to the lake anytime soon, anyway. After temps in the 60s recently, weekend forecast is for 30s and big snow in N Wis.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

As far as I am aware, Ken is the only commenter here who made an accurate prediction regarding the plague.

jimbino said...

It makes great sense to scrub your hands under hot running water for 20 seconds. Hot water, because it has much less viscosity than cold water, meaning it more easily flows into nooks and crannies, like under fingernails.

What doesn't make any sense is that in most all Amerikan homes, turning on the hot-water tap gives you 20 minutes of cold running water and hot running water only afterward -- an example of a building code that's anything but sensible -- and it's a waste of energy to leave hot water in the pipes to cool off. Even worse, in summer the AC has to waste more energy to cool off that water. Every place that pretends to have hot running water needs to be required to use a hot-water recirculation system. And the same holds for most dishwasher plumbing.

Sounds like a design by the same guys who run our healthcare system.

YoungHegelian said...

Oh, Oh!

Another data point to bolster my thesis at 8:36 above.

From Insty.

Mark said...

"While they were eating, Jesus took bread, said the blessing, broke it, and giving it to his disciples said, 'Take and eat; this is my body.' Then he took a cup, gave thanks, and gave it to them, saying, 'Drink from it, all of you, for this is my blood of the covenant, which will be shed on behalf of many for the forgiveness of sins. I tell you, from now on I shall not drink this fruit of the vine until the day when I drink it with you new in the kingdom of my Father.' Then, after singing a hymn, they went out to the Mount of Olives."

Pange, lingua, gloriosi
Corporis mysterium,
Sanguinisque pretiosi,
quem in mundi pretium
fructus ventris generosi
Rex effudit Gentium.

Nobis datus, nobis natus
ex intacta Virgine,
et in mundo conversatus,
sparso verbi semine,
sui moras incolatus
miro clausit ordine.

In supremae nocte coenae
recumbens cum fratribus
observata lege plene
cibis in legalibus,
cibum turbae duodenae
se dat suis manibus.

Verbum caro, panem verum
verbo carnem efficit:
fitque sanguis Christi merum,
et si sensus deficit,
ad firmandum cor sincerum
sola fides sufficit.

Tantum ergo Sacramentum
veneremur cernui:
et antiquum documentum
novo cedat ritui:
praestet fides supplementum
sensuum defectui.

Genitori, Genitoque
laus et jubilatio,
salus, honor, virtus quoque
sit et benedictio:
Procedenti ab utroque
compar sit laudatio.
Amen.

robother said...

Ken B is engaged in some dark struggle with "denialists". Or maybe he's referring to "de nihilists."

If the latter, I can only second Walter Sobchak's wisdom: "Nihilists! Fuck me. I mean, say what you will about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos."

Drago said...

Xi Cuckholster ARM: "As far as I am aware, Ken is the only commenter here who made an accurate prediction regarding the plague."

LOL

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Did I mention that Xi's cuckholster did this?

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27. His last use of phrase "Chinese virus" was on March 26, first at that day's White House briefing and then on the Hannity program that night. After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

Bay Area Guy said...

@YH,

Nice article! Here's a key graf.

"Of those, only 0.37% died from COVID-19, a figure much lower than those previously cited."

That refers to Germany, but that's hopefully what mass testing will do here. Lots of exposures, lots of recoveries, but tiny numbers of dead bodies.

Mark said...

Then Jesus came with them to a place called Gethsemane, and he said to his disciples, “Sit here while I go over there and pray.”

He took along Peter and the two sons of Zebedee, and began to feel sorrow and distress. Then he said to them, “My soul is sorrowful even to death. Remain here and keep watch with me.”

He advanced a little and fell prostrate in prayer, saying, “My Father, if it is possible, let this cup pass from me; yet, not as I will, but as you will.”

When he returned to his disciples he found them asleep. He said to Peter, “So you could not keep watch with me for one hour? Watch and pray that you may not undergo the test. The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak.”

Withdrawing a second time, he prayed again, “My Father, if it is not possible that this cup pass without my drinking it, your will be done!” Then he returned once more and found them asleep, for they could not keep their eyes open.

He left them and withdrew again and prayed a third time, saying the same thing again. Then he returned to his disciples and said to them, “Are you still sleeping and taking your rest? Behold, the hour is at hand when the Son of Man is to be handed over to sinners. Get up, let us go. Look, my betrayer is at hand.”



Stay with me, remain here with me,
watch and pray, watch and pray


https://youtu.be/FCr2tn4yYKY

Rory said...

Finished Barney Miller. On to The Black Adder.

YoungHegelian said...

@BAG,

That refers to Germany...Lots of exposures, lots of recoveries, but tiny numbers of dead bodies.

Ist gut to be die Ubermenschen, yah!

Calypso Facto said...

During the 1918 Spanish Flu, the national death rate soared 2400 percent in just one month.

According to CDC data, during the February to March 2020 pandemic, the overall US death rate soared by... wait for it ... minus 10 percent.

narciso said...

It is striking how his fate, was prophesied all the way in isiah, some four hundred years earlier.

Mark said...

There are things more important than even this coronavirus sport. Let it go. Behold, the hour is at hand.

Stepping forward they laid hands on Jesus and arrested him. And behold, one of those who accompanied Jesus put his hand to his sword, drew it, and struck the high priest’s servant, cutting off his ear. Then Jesus said to him, “Put your sword back into its sheath, for all who take the sword will perish by the sword.”

Yes, even more important that your silly little back-and-forth arguments.

Drago said...

I see ARM is not taking the latest news very well regarding his beloved ChiCom's medical equipment.

You will recall ARM spent weeks lauding the ChiCom's for their fabulous generosity in "giving" (actually selling) equipment to western nations, pretty much all of which had to be returned after those nations actually paid the ChiComs.

ARM was also very very complimentary towards his ChiCom "heroes" for having kept their infection rates and death rates so low....(all of which was a lie naturally, obvious to any sentient person).

On top of the UK kicking back 3.5 million defective test kits to the ChiCom's, we now know that just yesterday ARM's beloved ChiCom's told the French that if the French wanted already purchased equipment delivered, the French would have to immediately sign a long term deal to purchase Huawei equipment for the French 5G network!

But wait! It gets even "better" for "Tiananmen ARM"! Brazil has just been completely stiffed by ChiComs as well just today!

There has certainly been a Great Awakening as to what the ChiComs and their lackeys in the west have been up to and nations are now beginning to sound the alarm and take prudent steps.

I suspect the UK will be revisiting their earlier decision to purchase Huawei gear for the UK 5G network and just today, Japan announced they would create a govt fund to help their companies shift supply chains OUT OF China.

Xi and ARM hardest hit.

Mark said...

Your coronavirus will still be there in the morning. Plenty of time for it then.

narciso said...

Because the prophecy had to be fulfilles, the new covenant had to be made, mamy of the apostles expected a military leader, that was never in the cards.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

My memory is not what it once was. Did I mention that Xi's cuckholster did this?

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27. His last use of phrase "Chinese virus" was on March 26, first at that day's White House briefing and then on the Hannity program that night. After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

Shouting Thomas said...

At least in the U.S., this pandemic seems to be yet another episode of Boomers taking the kids for a ride.

I am a Boomer, and I don’t know what to think about that.

The fatalities are very predominantly among the elderly obese with the consequent co-morbidities of heart, kidney and liver disease, particularly diabetes and hypertension.

We’ve shut everything down, for the most part, to extend the lives of Boomers, like me, who live on pensions, SS and savings. It’s the kids who live from paycheck to paycheck who are making the financial and career sacrifice to keep us Boomer alive for another 5 or 10 years or more.

This is a strange, new episode in human history.

narciso said...

And he made particular arrangements for neither him or his apostles to be apprehended till the supper had come to pass.

Drago said...

In other news sure to make ARM weep for his ChiCom allies, Trump and his administration are cutting off the WHO which has been in Xi's back pocket for as long as the marxist Tedros, very good pal of Fauci, has been in charge.

Even worse than having the WHO in Xi's backpocket, the US was paying 10x more to the WHO than China!

That has now stopped.

BTW, if you haven't seen the Trump campaign ad which just dropped today, showing Slow Joe in all his suckup to China glory, you're missing something.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I saw this on the internets the other day, Xi's cuckholster did this.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27. His last use of phrase "Chinese virus" was on March 26, first at that day's White House briefing and then on the Hannity program that night. After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

narciso said...

You know a program to tell all the players and even then...

Guildofcannonballs said...

Watching Johnny Carson.

He touches his face constantly, Lynn Redgrave?? maybe they said?, during the interview.

narciso said...

Mcturtle often dissapoints, to pelosis bluff u would ask why didnt you put this hospital money in the (redacted) bill?

wholelottasplainin' said...

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
As far as I am aware, Ken is the only commenter here who made an accurate prediction regarding the plague.
*********************
Then why not back up this empty assertion with actual comments he made, regarding his predictions and the dates he made them?

And why, pray tell, would "denialists" be "angry" that Ken B's "accurate" predictions---which would have had to have been much LOWER than the ones initially put forth---comported with their own?

Or have you just outed Ken B. as your sockpuppet?

narciso said...

Of course i would ask that of mcturtle, what good are you?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

As I recall, KenB had a bet with someone here regarding the number of deaths in the US. He won the bet, by a large margin at this point.

Drago said...

Here's a relevant Trump policy that began long before this Kung Flu ARM's ChiCom pals gave us and is only accelerating now:

"Manufacturers Move Supply Chains Out of China"

"Tariff costs prompt executives to shift production to other countries; ‘Once you move, you don’t go back'"

It's like ARM and Xi are getting kicked right in the teeth by Trump.

Shouting Thomas said...

I put up a number of streaming videos for my client congregation today, ARM.

Today is Maundy Thursday, a holy day I didn’t even know about until I went to work for this congregation. Have you ever heard of it?

Here’s the story. At the Last Supper, Christ washed the feet of his disciples as an act of humble love and service. He even washed the feet of Judas and Peter, knowing that they will soon betray him.

This is the second time thru this service for me. It’s a fascinating aspect of Christian doctrine.

So, in this virtual world, I kneel before you and wash your feet in humble love and service.

Drago said...

ChiCom ARM: "He won the bet, by a large margin at this point."

Was the margin greater than 2,200,000 - 60,000?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Laura Ingraham is really humping the snake oil on my television at the moment. Pretty sure she said that Xi's cuckholster did this.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27. His last use of phrase "Chinese virus" was on March 26, first at that day's White House briefing and then on the Hannity program that night. After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

Drago said...

As if things couldn't get worse for our ChiCom lefties/LLR-lefties after the collapse of 2 hoaxes in 4 days (the Trump is invested in HCQ manufacturers hoax and the intel community warned Trump about this virus in November hoax), it appears the Israeli's have developed a treatment that works very effectively even for patients who reached very a very critical point in their infection.

Yikes!

ChiCom's looking bad and the Israelis looking good. It's a lefty/dem/LLR-lefty nightmare.

Char Char Binks said...

Straw men are in a burning rage!

Drago said...

I see ARM is still pushing the ChiCom narrative that HCQ is snakeoil.

I can certainly see why the ChiComs and their allies desperately want to preclude the US from using effective medicines. It's especially critical since the US will shortly begin moving its pharmaceutical supply chain out of China and out of the ChiCom's ability to manipulate it.

No wonder ARM is so cranky.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

I particularly liked how the Chinese made Italy buy the same medical supplies the Italians sent to China a few weeks before.

Nothing says greedy like a bunch of communist.

narciso said...

The prelude to that was satan entered judas, who was dissolutioned about what the Messiah turned out to be.

Drago said...

Bill, Republic of Texas: "I particularly liked how the Chinese made Italy buy the same medical supplies the Italians sent to China a few weeks before.

Nothing says greedy like a bunch of communist."

This action by the ChiComs was greatly praised by Tiananmen ARM as an act of Great Charity on the part of his totalitarian communist ruler allies.

To this day, ARM has not retracted one word of his over the top praise for the ChiComs, even after every single narrative advanced by ARM has collapsed under scrutiny.

I'm pretty sure ARM would rather chew his own leg off rather than offer even the most mild of criticisms towards the ChiComs.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I'm learning how to write blank verse. Still needs a little work.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27.
His last use of phrase "Chinese virus", was on March 26,
first at that day's White House briefing,
and then on the Hannity program that night.
After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

wholelottasplainin' said...

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
As I recall, KenB had a bet with someone here regarding the number of deaths in the US. He won the bet, by a large margin at this point.

************
Who did he bet against? What was the bet? When was it made? At what time in the future would the bet be won or lost?

If you an't offer specifics, you haven't "recalled" anything.

narciso said...

One of my best friends in college was canadian in fact he was from hamilton, he could blend in much better than ryam teynolds or michael j fox, he was never this tedious

Ken B said...

ARM
“ As I recall, KenB had a bet with someone here regarding the number of deaths in the US. He won the bet, by a large margin at this point.”

Correct. Yancey Ward confidently predicted 7500 tops for the whole epidemic. I predicted he would be wrong.
That is the only numerical prediction I have made. It is also, as ARM says, the only accurate prediction anyone has made here yet, though it’s such a simple and obvious prediction that it doesn’t mean much.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Any legal eagles out there?

Why can't the US sue China to recover the 10 trillion dollars we are going to spend because of the WuFlu. The Chinese government was obviously negligent in their handling of the pandemic.

Mark said...

Why did Judas do it? Was it because he had lost faith in Jesus, because he falsely believed that Jesus would be a military revolutionary and was not? Perhaps he did have that false belief of what a messiah should be -- but didn't Judas see the works Jesus performed? Didn't he just see Jesus raise Lazarus from the dead?? Surely that would have disabused him of the whole revolutionary thing?

Was it malice born of some other reason? To knowingly destroy Jesus? Or was it foolishness? Did he not fully realize what he was doing and merely thought that he would force an answer to the Messiah question?

In any event, whether it is malicious pride or foolish pride, Judas thought he knew better than Jesus. He wanted to do things his way.

But then, so did many of the other Apostles. And so do we, we think we know better than God. Certainly Simon Peter did at times. At the arrest, he pulls out his sword. And afterward, he is afraid to trust in the Lord, to simply put his life in God’s hands and instead seeks to save his life by denying God.

Judas goes his own way. He thinks he knows better than the Lord Jesus in handing him over. And even worse for him, he goes his own way when Jesus is condemned. Despite his feelings of guilt, he never turns back to the Lord and, thus, meets his end. Instead of seeking and getting forgiveness, like Peter did, he still keeps apart from the Lord and hangs himself.

Drago said...

And this just in as well: Tedros the marxist, head of the WHO, within one 24 hour period, attacks Taiwan and praises North Korea and China.

Yeah, he's totally not owned by the ChiCom's.

In his case, I get it. He's a marxist and he's well paid.

What is harder to understand is how people in free western nations could become such transparent lickspittle's to the ChiCom leaders....for free. As posters on blogs.....

Michael K said...

ARM is getting pretty desperate. I see a garage mahal in his future.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here & predict that when they finally get around to doing random testing on a large population in the US that the medical authorities will be astounded by the percentage that has the antibodies.

Agreed and I'm predicting (sorry KenB) that final death figures will be close to 20k. In other words, a bad flu season.

I see the economy largely open by May 1.

Ken B said...

Third straight day of over 1900 deaths in the US.

Drago said...

Bill, Republic of Texas: "Any legal eagles out there?
Why can't the US sue China to recover the 10 trillion dollars we are going to spend because of the WuFlu."

It will be interesting to see if this is pushed forward.

One key consideration domestically is how far the dems/left/LLR-left will go to defend the interests of their ChiCom allies over the interests of their own nation.

I suspect they would be willing to fight very hard indeed to protect the interests of the ChiComs.

For instance, witness ARM's nonstop praise of every hoax tactic the ChiCom's have pulled for months now.

Drago said...

Ken B: "Third straight day of over 1900 deaths in the US."

Hope springs eternal for some.

Perhaps a second cape fitting is in order. Let us know how it goes.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Drago said...
What is harder to understand is how people in free western nations could become such transparent lickspittle's to the ChiCom leaders....for free. As posters on blogs....
or Presidents of countries.

Original Mike said...

"Yancey Ward confidently predicted 7500 tops for the whole epidemic. I predicted he would be wrong."

So, Yancey picked a number and you picked all the other numbers.

Drago said...

ARM: "or Presidents of countries."

True. The dems treating obambi as an earthly messiah was certainly something.

I was hoping you guys got that out of your system. But nope. You just transferred it to Xi.

Jon Ericson said...

Fire up another one, ARM

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

The trial lawyers are big contributors to the Dems but can you image what they would do to get their share of 10 trillion dollars!?!

Sic those leeches on the Chinese!

wholelottasplainin' said...

Bill, Republic of Texas said...
Any legal eagles out there?

Why can't the US sue China to recover the 10 trillion dollars we are going to spend because of the WuFlu. The Chinese government was obviously negligent in their handling of the pandemic.
************
What court would we sue in? What disinterested countries would disinterested judges be chosen from, since virtually all have skin in the game? How would the verdict be enforced, and by whom, using what means?

Myself, I like the idea that countries suffering from the virus could just default en masse on their debts to China and recover their losses that way.

Of course that would set up a yuuuuge game of chicken involving massive amounts of money, and could destroy the value of many currencies....including the dollar.....and trigger a world-wide recession and massive civil unrest...

narciso said...

What do we have here:

gates and adhanom tied at the hip

Ken B said...

Michael K
“ I'm predicting (sorry KenB) that final death figures will be close to 20k”

What do you count as final? This time next year? Next week?
And what do you count as close? Ward counts 75000 as close, but I don’t think that will do.
If you want credit for an accurate prediction give a date and a maximum.

Known Unknown said...

"What do you count as final? This time next year? Next week?
And what do you count as close? Ward counts 75000 as close, but I don’t think that will do.
If you want credit for an accurate prediction give a date and a maximum."

Imagine being this obsessed with death.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

We sue other countries in US courts all the time. We can freeze their assets and property to pay for judgements.

Well except when certain presidents send those billions of frozen funds to Iran on unmarked plans with pallets of untraceable cash.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

To be sung to tune of the 'Battle Hymn of the Republic'.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27.
His last use of phrase "Chinese virus", was on March 26,
first at that day's White House briefing,
and then on the Hannity program that night.
After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

walter said...

Ken B: "Third straight day of over 1900 deaths in the US."
So by Ken's trolling precedent, looks like he's enjoying each additional death.

Guildofcannonballs said...

This is a link few will remember past tomorrow, but the wisest will ne'er forget.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Texas Monthly article with three restaurant/bar employees processing what has happened to their industry.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/food/texas-restaurants-bars-workers-coronavirus/

"It’s really hard not to think all about the what-ifs and the ripple effect of so many bars and restaurants closing. What about all the distributors and suppliers? The employees who work in the warehouse at Twin Liquors? What about the people who clean restaurants and bars—what happens to them? Some might not apply for relief because of their immigration status.

Who ever thought it could all evaporate overnight?"



"This is a bloodbath.

I’ve been sleeping like an hour a night trying to figure out the numbers and what to do and how to make this work while protecting my most important people, my family and my employees."



"And then there’s a whole other, extremely stressful side to this, and that’s the employees. We’ve been trying to take care of the staff to the extent we can because they’re incredibly loyal. Some have been here as long as I have, and that’s sixteen years."


Ken B said...

“ Imagine being this obsessed with death.”

Imagine being indifferent to the deaths of your countrymen, or neighbors. Especially to future, preventable deaths. It actually matters how we respond to this epidemic.

MayBee said...

My governor, VP Candidate Whitmer, has decreed that after April 10 people may no longer travel from one home in the state to another home in our state, nor travel for vacation.

You tell me she doesn't love being a dictator. How do you even justify such a law, or enforce it?

Big Mike said...

Not as many people have died as some predicted. The denialists are angry and want revenge.

@Ken B., there are multiple interpretations of your comment, none of which does you credit. Your use of the term “denialist” is ridiculous. Since you accepted what appear —thankfully! — to be significant overestimates for the mortality rates and number of deaths; should we then label you an “alarmist”?

Not long ago you and I were having what I thought was a useful exchange of views on the models. I thought at the time that you were overlooking factors that would lead to lower mortality rates, and then suddenly instead of a rational exchange leading, hopefully, to a meeting of the minds you started slinging words like “denialist” around. Really, man, you say you are trained as a mathematician. There’s no room either for emotion or for holding to old opinions in the face of new facts. You should have been trained better than that!

As for me, I am happy that the mortality rate looks to be lower than my own predictions. More people surviving this contagion is a good thing, I think.

Known Unknown said...

I think ARM is failing the boring test. SAD!

narciso said...

Tedros was 9 years old when the derge cameto power in 1974, mengistu was the real kilmonger, an american trained officer with a god complex that only marx could satify its not surprising in his teem years he joined the only insurgent group against that camarilla.

Laslo Spatula said...

I attribute the highest IMHE figures that included social distancing to be Ken B's prediction:

• he used those prospective numbers as the reason we needed to shoot the economy in the back of the head;

• he vigorously derided anyone who said they were too high.

A charlatan.

I am Laslo.

Drago said...

Big Mike: "Really, man, you say you are trained as a mathematician. There’s no room either for emotion or for holding to old opinions in the face of new facts. You should have been trained better than that!"

You should have seen Ken B's meltdown when I asked him to tell me more about a non-contextual "3%" of "some category" of people who had been reported to have died in NYC hospitals.

narciso said...

Internal passports please. What fresh hell did you descend into.

Known Unknown said...

"You tell me she doesn't love being a dictator. How do you even justify such a law, or enforce it?"

Do any reporters ask her why her state is such a shitshow compared to the rest of the Midwest?

Drago said...

Known Unknown: "I think ARM is failing the boring test. SAD!"

He has no where else to go. It's all he has left and he knows his own prolonged and passionate ChiCom suckuppery, available via "Teh Interwebs" to any and all who wish to view it, is indefensible.

narciso said...

No of course not, it doesnt serve the narrative

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I was looking through the lyrics to Bob Dylan's new tune, ‘Murder Most Foul’. Some deep stuff, man. This really spoke to me.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27.
His last use of phrase "Chinese virus", was on March 26,
first at that day's White House briefing,
and then on the Hannity program that night.
After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

wholelottasplainin' said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

You tell me she doesn't love being a dictator. How do you even justify such a law, or enforce it?

It's for their own good, she'd self-importantly claim, I'm sure. Plenty of Karens think this is just great. You should see the hysteria in the mom's group on FB for my daughter's college when people ask questions about coming in from out of state to empty dorm rooms that were hastily vacated or not returned to at all at the end of spring break. Most of them think it should not be allowed and if it is, they want a 14 day quarantine upon arrival. For people who are going to arrive in town, drive to a mostly empty dorm on a mostly empty campus, pack some stuff for an hour or two, and leave again. Probably not even encountering any other humans.

Many of the women in my neighborhood are all over social media snitching on people taking walks and teenagers talking in the street. "They should not be LEAVING THEIR HOUSES!"

This whole sorry affair has eroded most faith I had that my fellow citizens - especially my fellow women - are able by and large to think with their brains and not their knee-jerk fear reaction and/or their semi-sadistic control fantasies.

DavidUW said...

ST, if you went to Catholic school, thanks to the voucher system in Milwaukee, rescuing some (but not enough) children from the horrid MPS, you'd know all about Holy Thursday traditions.

Spare a thought for Pilate. A put-upon member of the elite, called upon to lead, and hearing the call...washed his hands of matter, condemning an innocent man to an excruciating death.

Poor Poor Pilate.

traditionalguy said...

Passover/last supper tonight. Wonder if there was a pink moon in 33 AD.

Birkel said...

So Ken B is either waiting for the last thread of the day, patiently clicking refresh until he can make a ass of himself
-OR-
Ken B is Meade.

Ken B said...

Big Mike
We need to be clear what models we are talking. The models from before the lockdowns have not been changed, refuted, whatever. They gave possible scenarios, all based on no distancing.
There were lots of models. For some reason the IHME model became very prominent.
In the past week or so the IHME models have changed, often. If you look back you will find only one person has posted a technical critique of the IHME models. Me. I pointed out they are curve fitting not epidemiological bottom up simulations, and do not adjust to change well.
But expert opinion is not just based on the IHME or any other model. Just listen to what Fauci or Birx or any other expert says about that.

Expert opinion, and mine fwiw, is that distancing has worked extremely well so far. It has saved lives and changed forecasts. That it has embarrassed on particular model is of no real importance, and seizing on the failure of the IHME model to keep up as a way to claim other, earlier, predictions were lies or errors is simply ridiculous. And I think it’s fair to call people who do that denialists. Especially those who would immediately end the measures taken.

We are all happy the mortality rate is lower than we feared.

Guildofcannonballs said...

https://mobile.twitter.com/allidoisowen/status/1248158242435477504

I wish we had a Canuck to show these damn Texans how to act..

Ken B said...

“ Because so far, no one's predictions have had time to be confirmed or falsified.”

That is true.

Big Mike said...

@Drago, let’s not go there, man.

Ken’s not the only person that got scared by this disease. I’m worried about the daughter of Tim in Vermont. I’ve got a son whose immune system is compromised. He’s a better mathematician than I ever was and I hope he doesn’t get it. Those worries are separate and apart from where I see the overall total deaths going.

Known Unknown said...

Ken B is Glenn Reynolds.

Just kidding.

narciso said...

Well pilate wasnt squeamish about blood, ask the samaritans, but he didnt wanf trouble 'from a certain point of view' he fulfills burkes admonition, but look at it another way, he did his part.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Ken B is Meade.

I see no evidence that Ken has a sense of humor, and Meade is very witty.

Ken B said...

“Ken B is Glenn Reynolds.”

*dreams of Dr Helen*

William said...

I watched the first two episode of that Neflix tiger series. People who devote their lives to big cats are weird beyond all imagining. I don't know if I'll make it through the series. The characters are unpleasant to watch.

narciso said...

Its a real life coen bros, but as the pitch meeting guy say, dont root for any of them.

wholelottasplainin' said...

wholelottasplainin' said...
Ken B said...
ARM
“ As I recall, KenB had a bet with someone here regarding the number of deaths in the US. He won the bet, by a large margin at this point.”

Correct. Yancey Ward confidently predicted 7500 tops for the whole epidemic. I predicted he would be wrong.
That is the only numerical prediction I have made. It is also, as ARM says, the only accurate prediction anyone has made here yet, though it’s such a simple and obvious prediction that it doesn’t mean much.
*****************
So...Ken B and Yancey had a bet, and Ken B. won.

But here's ARM's original comment:

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
As far as I am aware, Ken is the only commenter here who made an accurate prediction regarding the plague.
*********

But it appears that ARM's point was that "denialists" were all proven wrong by Yancey's bet.

That doesn't compute.

Essentially Yancey appears to have argued "7500, tops" ,and Ken B countered with an unspecified "more than that". So Ken B won the bet.

But others here have argued, both before and after Yancey/Ken's bet that the numbers would **ultimately** be equal to, or more than, the annual flu deaths of the recent past---and *that* remains the issue.

Thus so far, none of their predictions have had time to be confirmed or falsified.

Imagine a roulette wheel: many people bet. Yancey bets 15 black. Ken B bets Red. The ball stops, on a red number. But which one?

DavidUW said...

Didn't say he was squeamish about blood. He flogged Him after all.

I'm saying he was a weak member of the "elite" who, when he could have stood up for Roman law and made a life and death difference, chose to delegate the matter to the deplorables.

Perhaps there's a lesson in that somewhere.

William said...

I understand the Sweden is trying out the modified, limited open society solution. How is that working out for them? I hear varied responses.....It's possible for two choices to be very bad but not for both to be worse. Sweden may have chosen unwisely, but I'm glad that they tried something different.

Birkel said...

Trump stopped using a phrase but ARM continues to flo the China Virus several times a day.

Way to carry water for Trump over Winnie Xi Flu, ARM.

Drago said...

Here's a "big deal" thing happening that I am almost reluctant to share because it will make ARM squeal like a stuck pig, but here goes nothin':

"The US is ramping up its challenges to China's claims in the South China Sea"
Defense News Feb 6, 2020, 8:30 AM

"WASHINGTON – The US Navy conducted more freedom of navigation operations in 2019 than in any year since the US began more aggressively challenging China's claims in the South China Sea in 2015."

ARM ain't gonna like that. Not one bit.

Sebastian said...

Even all the downward adjustments don't appear to take into account the issue of attributing all deaths with Wuhan to Wuhan and the question of excess mortality. Some enterprising journalist ought to write a book on The Mismeasure of Wuhan.

Considering that we don't even have a proper count of flu deaths, there's ample room for the pro-panic faction to keep massaging the numbers for a while, but without explicit discounts for measurement problems and ordinary mortality, we will know that, whatever official number the "experts" end up citing, the actual Wuhan death count was lower.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

"At least in the U.S., this pandemic seems to be yet another episode of Boomers taking the kids for a ride"

And you can bet your sweet bippy this will be the last time. Ever talk to young people? Except for their parents/grandparents, Boomers are very much the generational folk devil. Once the danger of the KungFlu is passed (and for most young people that danger probably doesn't seem particularly real) the youth narrative will be about how their future was hobbled just so the Boomers could preserve their aging asses for another few years. Fair or not, don't kid yourself that it will be remembered any other way.

William said...

My near term fear is death. If I catch it, I'm probably a goner. My longer term fear is galloping inflation. I just don't understand how you can print trillions of dollars and close down half the economy, without inflation at some point becoming an issue.....Well, gravity doesn't effect quantum mechanics. Maybe inflation doesn't happen to large economies like the US. Only smaller countries likes Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe.

DavidUW said...

That's how I'm remembering it already.

As I've repeatedly stated, we're burning $10T and ruining millions of young people's lives to reduce the mortality risk of a typical Boomer from around 12% to around 11% over the next year.


Lewis Wetzel said...

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27.
[Trump's] last use of phrase "Chinese virus", was on March 26 . . ."
This is incredibly important.
Incredibly.
Important.
If you cannot properly classify and obsess on things like this, you have no business having an opinion on public policy in the US.
I will repeat my:self. If you do not pay immediate attention to Trump's words, and you did not notice that the last time Trump used the phrase "Chinese Virus" was on March 26, 2020, you are a stooge. Or maybe a stool. Or a stool sample. Or a stool sample from a stooge. Maybe I can't remember.
Before March 26: "Chinese virus."
After March 26: "The virus."
March 26 is like Pearl Harbor Day, except with Chinese killers instead of Japs.
And we were there.
Good God, we are being led by a mad man. God help us all.

narciso said...

But pilate never had any ethical standard to uphold,

DavidUW said...

Boomers were never going to get old, and now they think they're not going to die.

Nature says otherwise.

DavidUW said...

Roman philosophy discussed virtues ad nauseum

narciso said...

how about that

n.n said...

Nature says otherwise.

Yes, She does.

Birkel said...

I Have Misplaced My Pants:
It is very cruel of you to say that Ken B is the sort of person who would wait all evening to get the first dumb ass comment on a blog post. It is much more charitable to assume it is Meade. Meade could get advance notice of the post's timing, after all.

narciso said...

Apparently in eastern and coptic texts, hes regarded somewhat positively. Which has a certain logic to it, if you strip out the emotion.

Birkel said...

narciso:
That Army Field Hospital was just a denialist hospital.
That's why it had zero patients.

Ask Ken B for details.

Achilles said...

Michael K said...


Agreed and I'm predicting (sorry KenB) that final death figures will be close to 20k. In other words, a bad flu season.

I see the economy largely open by May 1.


Actually that would be beyond mild. Flu season ranges between 30,000 and 60,000.

And the numbers being flung out there are complete lies. Hospitals were given completely ridiculous criteria in assigning COVID-19 deaths.

The US death rate has fallen over the last 2 months from previous years.

Fewer people are dying now than normal.

Let that sink in.

narciso said...

In the bbc series close to the enemy, which aired recently. Alfred molina played amysterious british foreign office civil servant in post war london, there are intimAtions hes an operative, but it turns out he isnt? One subplot concerns a certain document hes trying to find, which we later find out revealed his error before the war. He redeems himself in a certain sense with an act of vengeance which might have been thr only justice

Andrew said...

I turn on the TV. Blah blah blah, "racial disparities," blah blah blah. One pastor said it's open season on black people. An NAACP leader says more blacks are dying because of systemic racism. No mention of any underlying medical issues.

Sometimes I hate this country. Even a virus gets a racial narrative.

DavidUW said...

I'll go with squeaking in under 40k deaths.
partial reopening May 1, mostly open June 1, but people will avoid concerts, theaters, voluntary travel like the plague as it were until mid to late summer.

NFL regular season will start on time.


Big Mike said...

And I think it’s fair to call people who do that denialists. Especially those who would immediately end the measures taken.

@Ken B., it’s only fair to call them denialist if it’s fair to call you an alarmist. And the sooner we end the shutdown the better for the people adversely affected. I find it easy to believe that you’re not one of them!

narciso said...

The title of the series is a play on words, about physical proximity but also similar views of pragmatism.

narciso said...

The question revolves around the definition of the greater good, say pilate decides not to punt, well were the jews going to stay put for reasons?

Gahrie said...

My near term fear is death. If I catch it, I'm probably a goner.

Me too. At least I'm single with no responsibilities other than 3 cats.

My longer term fear is galloping inflation. I just don't understand how you can print trillions of dollars and close down half the economy, without inflation at some point becoming an issue...

At one point I'd be with you. I remember being horrified in high school when the debt reached $1 trillion. However I've come to realize (With the help of Tom Clancy believe it or not) that the economy is all a big game of pretend anyway.

Here is one of the ways I illustrate this to my students. I take out a $100 bill in monopoly money. I stand in front of the class and rip it into pieces. No reaction, maybe even a yawn. I take out a $100 bill and the yelling starts. I rip it into four pieces and chaos erupts. I have their attention now. We then discuss the fact that objectively there is no difference in value between the two pieces of paper, but subjectively there is every difference in the world. We talk about why that is, and at some point I pull out my Zimbabwean bank notes and pass those around. Lately we discuss Venezuela.

The key to ending the crisis and fixing the mess is not about objective goals. Those will take care of themselves. The key is going to be the subjectives. And frankly, Trump is the perfect man for the job. It's the same message he's been sending for the last five years. All he needs to do now is mix in a little of Kennedy's "ask not...". He should be calling in Musk, Bezos, Gates, and others like them to get together and come up with a plan to kick start consumer confidence that the dollar is sound, the economy is sound and life can go on as normal. If we can convince most Americans that is true, it will become true. Our secret weapon is the fact that most people (apart from the TDSers) will want it to come true, and so will want to believe that it is true.

If we learn some important lessons about globalization from this, we can actually come out of this stronger than when we went in. China however must be punished, but that could get dangerous.

narciso said...

Jesus knew what had to happen, amd yet that didnt stop him from dreading it.

Gahrie said...

I turn on the TV. Blah blah blah, "racial disparities," blah blah blah. One pastor said it's open season on black people. An NAACP leader says more blacks are dying because of systemic racism. No mention of any underlying medical issues.

From what I hear the Black community ignored social distancing until long after everyone else isolated themselves.

Gahrie said...

The US death rate has fallen over the last 2 months from previous years.

Fewer people are dying now than normal.

Let that sink in.


Yet more evidence that social distancing works. That does not necessarily mean that the costs were worth the benefits.

Arashi said...

So it comes down to a trade off of lives for lives. How many people don't die if you destroy the economy by locking everyone up for a month or two versus how many people die because you destroyed the economy. It isn't about lives and dollars. The very real number of deaths that will be direclty related to the destroyed economy will most likely be much higher than the number who actually died from Covid-19.

As someone who because of cericumstance is lumped in with the 'boomers', I think the resentment directed towards us from everybody younger who had their life f**cked up beyond all imagine by the reaction to the Covid by our government is going to be real and very hard to undo.

The new normal after all of this is very likely to suck donkey balls big time.

On the otehr hand, it was a glorious sunny day in the Greater Pugetopolis and I took the motorcycle out on a trek to look for Purell and get gasoline. I did not find any Purell. I did get gas at the local Costco. A number of folks where doing similar. I got a very warm smile and wave from the State Trooper directing traffic through a construction zone and from the flaggers as well. All in all a decent day.

Certain people here should really get a new shtick (I won't mention names - but they are simialr to farm and benby)

DavidUW said...

If Pilate protects an innocent man, at least he is an honorable man.

Birkel said...

Arashi,
That was exactly the conversation most of us were having weeks ago. For that we were called Trumpists, denialists, and heartless.

But life is always about trade-offs. TANSTAAFL and all that.

narciso said...

For pilate, but what of the bigger picture, the point of jesus sacrifice is death in itself is not the worse thing, it would be the failure to redeeem humanity.

One mighr look on these travails as a corrective to current attitudes, not that this indicates any further escatalogical end

Sebastian said...

When The Reckoning happens for real, we will remember, as a symbol of The Panic of 2020, that all of sports shut down when not a single athlete had been seriously affected by Wuhan.

Even now the count, as reported in major media, as far as I know, is still one amateur athlete, in the whole world. One.

Reopen now. Start with golf.

narciso said...

Fauci and birx see this great calamity that could be ameliorated ia it necessarily true, thats kind of immaterial but the consequences are so great. That one must adopt eztraordinary means to prevent it from coming to pass.

Arashi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
narciso said...

I can argue it flat i can argue it round, now some cant imagine the others viewpoint

Andrew said...

Since people are discussing Pilate, and it's Good Friday tomorrow, I thought I'd mention a favorite verse (or phrase):
"I find no fault in Him."

Pilate's saying of this was the fulfillment of the Passover lamb in Exodus. The lamb for each house had to be spotless and without blemish. For Pilate to say this about Jesus was to declare Him uniquely worthy to be the Lamb of God.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

OK Ken that joke about Dr. Helen was funny. Credit where credit is due.

narciso said...

That is definitely one point in his favor, that makes his decision somewhat more cruel however.

Arashi said...

Birkel,

Yes - it would be a good thing if people would get it through their brains that all decisions invole tradeoffs. And sometimes the cure is much worse than the disease. I used to frequent a reasonable number of small business' that most likely will not exist if the economy is not brought back on line sooner rather than later. That is a real number of people who may or may not be devastated and may or may not die from that devastation. This should have been part of the calculus. But instead, we got the normal political bullshit designed not to actually help the citiznes of the US, but to aid the buddies of the politicians and further the narrative. Sigh.

Birkel said...

https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-higher-death-rates-new-study-yale-researcher-shows

Bad economies lead to earlier deaths.
A Yale professor said so.
Apparently Yale is a junior college or some such.
But it has no students.

narciso said...

The problem is almost all media has a singular perspective, that this worse case scenario, means any level of pain is necessary.

Jupiter said...

"I'm gonna go out on a limb here & predict that when they finally get around to doing random testing on a large population in the US that the medical authorities will be astounded by the percentage that has the antibodies."

Hell, it's Thursday night. Let's go full RHB (Rational Human Being). Which numbers might be accurate?

Dead from Covid-19?
Hospitalized with Covid-19?
Exposed to Covid-19?
Infected with Covid-19?
Recovered from Covid-19?

Why would you imagine that anyone has a means of assessing any of those numbers?

narciso said...

And then the same media, complain about the consequences of measures taken, sybill wasnt this confused.

Yancey Ward said...

I will just point out that I made the 7500 prediction when the lowest model number for the US was 2 million. And I made the prediction with exactly the same social distancing measures in place today, as did the models at that time (that was the low number of their predicted range). Of course, the low number has rapidly dropped from 2-11 million dead to today's 60,000 (which may not be high enough, but it will be close enough for horseshoes).

Of course, all those ridiculously high predictions from the so-called experts will be memory holed by the likes of Ken B and ARM.

Birkel said...

Yancey Ward:
I believe your verb tense in the phrase "will be" is comically wrong.
"Has been" is the proper tense.

chickelit said...

I think we're on track for some sort of Easter revival.

DavidUW said...

It is better for Judas would he have never been born...

Pilate fulfilled his role as a weak, unprincipled man.

He was still a weak unprincipled man, one step below a Senator, rich, elite, and in the end, unable to stand up to a bunch of rabble.

narciso said...

No judas had to do his part, it is the grim reality that the passion of christ makes us face, also a film like risen in the current era.

DavidUW said...

Furthermore, he lies and says he is not responsible.

He could have ended it with an order.

Weak, lying, unprincipled representative of the ruling class.

narciso said...

We come to the question of means and ends, what is the latter and how are they accomplishes by the former.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

Wanted to get in earlier when folks were actuall still reading, but: Mort Drucker has passed.

Along with Don Martin & Dave Berg, he made the Mad magazine of my tweens an incredibly rewarding monthly (when I had the cash) experience. Even now I can still remember his film parodies like The Poop-Side-Down Adventure. But as a trekkie, my all time favorite was Keep On Trekin' a musical parody of Star Trek TOS.

Check it out, and you can click on each image for full sized.

chickelit said...

The question is, who gets crucified by the media tomorrow?

eddie willers said...

Mort Drucker has passed.

My favorite idiot! (said lovingly)

RIP

chickelit said...

The question is, who gets crucified by the media tomorrow?

Whoever it is, they're better be bigger than The Beatles. Or John Lennon, at least.

bagoh20 said...

Our household of 5 humans and 3 dogs is having drinks and a big ole fire outside tonight. It's about sixty degrees, but tomorrow is gonna be 79 and beautiful. The roses are blooming, the pool is ready, and it's outside life from here on for months. The pool is too cold right now, water temp about 62, I like it about 85, which it will be soon. When I was younger and lived in L.A., the ocean water was usually in the sixties in summer, and that never really bothered me, but there is no way I could do that now. It would be a good time for a pool. It's like a full-body sanitizer for the whole family. You could probably safely entertain company as long as everybody stayed in the pool. The President should hold press conferences in a pool.

I went to the Walmart today for supplies, and there was a family in front of me: father, mother, and three toddlers. I'm there so nobody else in the house has to go, and they bring their whole damned family. Maybe they can get more toilet paper that way.

chickelit said...

I think we're on track for some sort of Easter revival.

Let me be more indefinite: I think we're on track for an Easter revival.

bagoh20 said...

Does anybody else wish Betelgeuse would get on with it. It's gonna be a hell of year, so now's the time.

chickelit said...

It would be a good time for a pool. It's like a full-body sanitizer for the whole family. You could probably safely entertain company as long as everybody stayed in the pool. The President should hold press conferences in a pool.

My HOA here in Irvine shut off my pool last week. I have swum* there every day for 2 years. After the lock down, I sulked for 2 days and then I invented some "dry swimming" exercises to hit the same muscles.
_______
*Swim, swam, swum.

Nichevo said...

Drago said...

To this day, ARM has not retracted one word of his over the top praise for the ChiComs, even after every single narrative advanced by ARM has collapsed under scrutiny.

I'm pretty sure ARM would rather chew his own leg off rather than offer even the most mild of criticisms towards the ChiComs.

4/9/20, 9:35 PM


ARM...isn't that Xi's cockholster?

As for the rhetoric employed tactically by President Trump: if memory serves, this line was adopted in response to official Chinese propaganda to the effect that coronavirus was actually spread in China by representatives of the United States armed forces.

That's when PDT adopted the China virus rhetoric. Subsequently, the Chinese, as I understand it, retracted that line of talk. Maybe that's why Xi's cockholster ARM is sad that Trump doesn't say it anymore.

Nichevo said...

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
I was looking through the lyrics to Bob Dylan's new tune, ‘Murder Most Foul’. Some deep stuff, man. This really spoke to me.

"Trump's call with Xi was March 27.
His last use of phrase "Chinese virus", was on March 26,
first at that day's White House briefing,
and then on the Hannity program that night.
After taking to Xi - Trump stopped it."

4/9/20, 10:04 PM


Aren't you afraid, cockholster, that Meadehouse will notice that you are spamming their blog and delete you? You must want that kind of attention because now you've stooped to using Bob Dylan as bait for what you apparently think is a hook.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

Ian Wallace was an interesting midlist SF writer from the early 70s through the mid 80s. He started off in Van Vogt territory (something relatively few do!) then kind of wandered into even weirder stuff. On of which was a book featuring the brother of his main hero, Croyd, a guy named Pan Satittarius. Pan's book was basically a short story collection with an overarching meta-plot. Each episode put him in the "If Nodes Of Antan" where he tried to re-write a historical episode for the better. (Actually, I think he could not change past events, but by sharing his consciousness with the main player in those events, he could at least help the player come to terms with things and save his soul).

One of the adventures had Pan sharing the mind of a Judas analog, with the plot that Jesus picked out Judas to do something he didnt' want to do ("Must it be me?") but which had to be done. It was the first time I had heard that theory..

bagoh20 said...

Where can I buy one of these cock holsters? Sounds like a useful device.

bagoh20 said...

ARM, is this your great gotcha on Trump? Really? Apparently, The President has knocked down so many fake charges that there is nothing left. Maybe he tore one of those warning labels of of a mattress too. Impeach!

Gospace said...

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...
...
I may not approve of it but I get why the police have to resort to seemingly draconian things, like arresting paddle boarders, in warmer climes.


I've said it elsewhere, and maybe here before. Those who would have been Stasi informers are self identifying. So lists can be made of those who need to be targeted immediately when the boogaloo starts. And another one just self identified.

bagoh20 said...

I'm kind of a jealous type, so to keep other men away from my girlfriend, I licked her.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

Where can I buy one of these cock holsters? Sounds like a useful device.

I suggest Japan.

(You knew better than to click on that, right?)

bagoh20 said...

Anybody read Japanese? I gotta know what it says.

walter said...

Might be what the sumos wear.

PresbyPoet said...

I have kind of a unique perspective, old enough to be retired, my retirement job is work for the U.S. Census. We contact doctors for a study for the CDC, called the National Ambulatory Health Care Survey. (NAMCS.)

The actual Federal Agency we work for is the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). They have a very useful website. In addition to information about NAMCS and other studies they have information about the flu and flu-like symptoms going back for a decade. They also show pneumonia deaths per week. Said chart for every year seems stuck at around 3,000 deaths per week, except for flu season.

They also have a chart of the number of visits for flu-like symptoms by week for the past year. Curiously, the peak week is week 6 (in February) with 119,602 visits for "Influenza-Like-Illness Reported". By week 9 it had declined to 73,719, just about the time everything shut down.

Since the job involves going to different medical offices to try to get doctors to cooperate, it was very "interesting" in January and February. We had no specific direction to take any precautions, other than the standard boilerplate CYA. No masks given. No direction for hand sanitizer.

Trying to track down a doctor for the study who does not return phone calls, you wonder if you should make a personal visit (PV). You know this new Chinese import might lurk in people who show no symptoms. What do you do? Talking to nurses working in various places about masks, gloves, cleaning, you realize how fragile things are. No one knows what to do. No one knows what to do about this alien visitor.

I am not impressed by the CDC. Their mask instructions seemed crazy to me from the start, when it was clear early this was infectious without symptoms. Then to learn our supply of emergency masks was depleted 10 years ago, and no one bothered to replenish. Or even mention the lack until much later.

We should not have had centralized testing, but people like control and power. I give you the TSA, every urban planning department in the country, and a Michigan governor. Having worked for and against government all my life, I am aware of the dangers of bean counters who mistake process for product.

This week I have noticed another weirdness. Kaiser closed our pharmacy. Now need to order online, but only prescriptions. So I wondered about getting Zinc. What if I came down with the Chinese gift, and they only offered the two prescription drugs? Checking local drug stores, saw they all were out of Zinc in their vitamin sections. But, they all still had ZICAM in their colds section. It has zinc. Not a supplement, but a "homeopathic remedy". The old guy vitamin I have lists 15 mg of Zinc as an ingredient. Zicam just says it has 1x of zincum gluconicum, and 2x Zincum aceticum. How much is that?

I finally found out, but it took much research. Strange. Now have 50 homeopathic quick dissolve ZICZM tablets for emergency use. Now also know much more about zinc and its various incantations, and how taking too much of it depletes copper.

PresbyPoet said...

Regarding Judas. I asked the question: Why did Jesus allow Judas to betray Him? Jesus knew. Was it just that someone had to do it and Judas drew the short straw? It makes God look bad.

It is impossible to come up with a worse sin than the one Judas commits. Killing God. There is nothing worse. Judas kills himself when he realizes what he has done. This most horrible sin would have seemingly offered no choice other than death.

So I wrote a short story where Judas does not kill himself. He meets the same girl who scared Peter, and in explaining about who Jesus was, realizes that, maybe he will rise from the dead in 3 days, and maybe Jesus can forgive him (an even greater miracle).

So Judas goes to the tomb early on the third day, encounters the empty tomb, and hears a voice behind him. "Judas I've been waiting for you." Forgiven, Judas is sent to tell the other disciples the good news. Judas now a living testament of the message of Easter. That was my response to the question of: Why did Jesus allow Judas to betray Him? We are offered a choice. Life or death, you are only free to come when you are free to go.

Crazy World said...

Sick of confirming unemployment claims, taking a 4 day weekend to be thankful we still have jobs. God Bless America.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Took a lot of sacrifice but we're now at the high point of Obama's economy

Ty said...

It snowed here today, but my daffodils didn't even care. There's something comforting about that.

Francisco D said...

Michael K said ... I'm predicting (sorry KenB) that final death figures will be close to 20k. In other words, a bad flu season.

That number would be a historically mild flu season. A few years ago, over 60K died of the flu.

CDC numbers indicate that over 230,000 people died every month in 2018. Ken B is freaked out by the "devastation" of the Wuhan coronavirus because less than 20K have died in three months?

I am guessing that Ken B is hysterical because he doesn't understand numbers and because his thought processes are easily overwhelmed by emotion. In other words, he is part of the Democrat base.

Fernandistein said...

On Mar 24 my prediction was:

"Based on the current stats, I'm going with "overblown media-driven panic" and that it'll be similar to a bad flu season, where, according to CDC, 50 to 60K Americans die in a year: that's an average of 4-5,000 deaths a month, though they're mostly in one season."

I'm not big on predicting the future, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Fernandistein said...

My real interest in that prediction was actually the dishonest media:

"How would the MSM be reporting 5000+ deaths from WuFlu in the last month? Kinda panicky, ya think?"

MadTownGuy said...

Apropos of Passover:

The Maccabeats - Dayenu

tim maguire said...

YoungHegelian said...
Oh, Oh!

Another data point to bolster my thesis at 8:36 above.


Right from the start there’s been indirect evidence that the actual spread has been far greater than the reported spread. Back then, the assumption was that China is hiding the true numbers or their health system is too creaky to produce reliable data. But that trend, which started with statistical analyses of the spread beyond Wuhan, has continued throughout the world with now a number of i dependent data sets all pointing to the same conclusion.

We won’t have direct evidence until we get widespread antibody testing, but it will just confirm what is already plain—for a large majority of people, it’s just a cold or flu and we are already on our way to herd immunity. If we can accept that, then we can shift our effort to lower impact, more targeted isolation of vulnerable populations.

iowan2 said...

CDC numbers indicate that over 230,000 people died every month in 2018. Ken B is freaked out by the "devastation" of the Wuhan coronavirus because less than 20K have died in three months?

Tracking this virus by gross deaths is wrong, and designed propaganda. Until the reporting goes to deaths/million, we are all being played.

Now they are using gross deaths, and KNOWN infections. From that we are supposed to determine the efficacy of mitigation. All we need is deaths/million. Then those comparisons to different geographies and defined groups, etc. will be self defining, with out interpretation by experts with an agenda.
The explanations of Fauci and Brix concerning the wildly wrong models, are woefully short of science based reasoning.

brylun said...

Diesel ....Sausalito Summernight Live ORIGINAL

Kai Akker said...

@ Gahrie -- I loved your currency lesson. But on this part:

All he needs to do now is mix in a little of Kennedy's "ask not...". He should be calling in Musk, Bezos, Gates, and others like them to get together and come up with a plan to kick start consumer confidence

Those names make me sick to read. We can develop our confidence ourselves, Americans. We don't need to be led into consumerism, right? Let people find their best routes out of this mess. Those names sound like they are from a prior chapter in the book.

(Blogger rejected me but left the typing in the box. Sorry if this is a duplicate.)

ga6 said...

UW-Madison editorial calls to 'decolonize' 'eurocentric, whitewashed, sexist' curriculum

from Insty

mandrewa said...

Ken B. said, "It is also, as ARM says, the only accurate prediction anyone has made here yet, though it’s such a simple and obvious prediction that it doesn’t mean much."

Willis Eschenbach's analysis of the Diamond Princess cruise ship data is sort of holding up. He didn't make a prediction but he gave a range of death estimates based on assuming that the Diamond Princess data was representative of the whole population.

In particular,

Finally, according to the study, the age-adjusted infection fatality rate was 1.2% (0.38%–2.7%). Note the wide uncertainty range, due to the small number of deaths.

The current US population is 329 million. So for the low end that's 0.17x0.0038x329 million or 212,000, and at the high end it's 1.5 million.

Now to be fair this overstates Eschenbach's implied prediction a bit, since 55% of the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers were over 65, which is not true for the United States.

We could make the prediction better by using the current known age distribution of Covid-19 deaths, but I think even then the actual number of real Covid-19 deaths, I mean excluding deaths that are currently falsely being attributed to Covid-19, is going to end up being less than the low end of what was implied by the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

But to put things in context, at the time Eschenbach wrote that essay, his numbers were much lower than many millions of deaths being forecast by quite a number of people.

mandrewa said...

YoungHegelian said,

"I'm gonna go out on a limb here & predict that when they finally get around to doing random testing on a large population in the US that the medical authorities will be astounded by the percentage that has the antibodies.

I'm basing this on 1) the large asymptomatic majority on the cruise ship 2) the anecdotal evidence coming in from everywhere I look that "Hey, I had that shit in Jan/Feb/March!" (including me in that anecdotal crew) & 3) the MIT Boston area water purification plant fecal examination for evidence of COVID RNA, which showed far more evidence of infection than previously thought."


A study was just published, yesterday or the day before I think, in Germany where they attempted to do a whole population survey of a small town. They found that 14% of that population had antibodies to COVID RNA and an additional 2% had a current infection. (You don't get antibodies in testable amounts until after the illness.)

Now this needs to be qualified by stating that testing for antibodies to the Wuhan Lab Bat Coronavirus is still all very new and they could have made an error.

But if it's true then it means a fatality rate of 0.37%. The average flu epidemic has a fatality rate of 0.1%.

Michael K said...

Francisco D said...

Michael K said ... I'm predicting (sorry KenB) that final death figures will be close to 20k. In other words, a bad flu season.

That number would be a historically mild flu season. A few years ago, over 60K died of the flu.


Yeah, there were still flu deaths this season, as well. I'm still saying the range will be less than 50k to as low as 20k.

Michael K said...

Of course, all those ridiculously high predictions from the so-called experts will be memory holed by the likes of Ken B and ARM.

The Canadian troll at Chicagoboyz predicted a million hospital cases. He hasn't posted lately.

MayBee said...

It's like nobody remembers being 10 days behind Italy.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

“I've said it elsewhere, and maybe here before. Those who would have been Stasi informers are self identifying. So lists can be made of those who need to be targeted immediately when the boogaloo starts. And another one just self identified.”

Pretty sure the Ministerium has an Illiteracy section. Consider yourself reported.

gpm said...

FWIW, all or virtually all of the people getting tested at the Roseland hospital are undoubtedly black.

--gpm

Char Char Binks said...

Being ten days behind Italy puts them weeks ahead of us.

Mark said...

It is impossible to come up with a worse sin than the one Judas commits. Killing God. There is nothing worse.

In reading the Passion account from the Gospel in the Good Friday liturgy in Catholic churches, often instead of just one person reading it, many people take various parts. One part that the faithful in the pews take is to yell out, "Crucify him, crucify him!"

The fact is that we all betray the Lord, we all call for his death, we all hammer the nails into his hands and feet. How? By the sins we commit, that is, by what we think and do and fail to think and do that separates us from God. It is only because of our own infidelities and transgressions that Jesus is on the Cross in the first place. We are all Judas -- and the whole reason the Lord became man was to save people like Judas.

Yes, there ARE worse sins than betraying the Lord and killing God. There are far worse sins. After all, even killing God in the flesh can be forgiven.

What can possibly be worse?? The worse sin, the ONLY "unforgivable" sin is what Judas did afterward. And what was that? Despite his feelings of guilt, Judas did not turn back to the Lord. He did not seek reconciliation, the prodigal son never came home. By not seeking the forgiveness that was there waiting for him, by not opening up his heart to God's mercy, by continuing to turn his back on God by instead hanging himself, Judas could not be forgiven.

It was the gift never opened. It was the delivery returned to sender. He was impervious to redemption. THAT is the greatest sin. And, sadly, it too is a sin that others commit.

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