November 27, 2019

What happened to Warren? Look at this peak and collapse:



The Democrats need somebody to run against Trump. Biden is the default, a kind of presumption in need of rebutting. Doesn't everyone know that it shouldn't be him? But you have to beat him with somebody, and for a while there, the idea was maybe it could be Warren. People imagined that, and have rejected it. Now they're setting up to test Buttigieg. Maybe it could be Buttigieg. The purple line is on the rise, but that just means people are beginning to visualize him as really actually getting the nomination and not just a fanciful idea that seems nice. The purple line will cross over the brown line soon, don't you think? But then won't the same thing happen again, collapse when it gets too real? And the good old green line will continue to prance along at the top.

92 comments:

Seeing Red said...

She opened her mouth and math is hard.

Bob Smith said...

Lying about so many things never helps.

rehajm said...

People figured out what we in Massachusetts already know- she’s dumb.

tcrosse said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gahrie said...

Biden wins the nomination, dies a week later, and Hillary steps up to save the party and the nation.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

You can't beat somebody with nobody. Biden is barely somebody, but as they step into the spotlight the others are outed as nobodies.

tcrosse said...

It's worth asking exactly who will choose the nominee, and by what mechanism.

daskol said...

Since history doesn't exactly repeat itself, I guess the rhyme we can look forward to is this, if Biden snags the nomination: the Dem candidate goes down thanks to corruption despite the best efforts of the establishment to prevent it and cover for their misdeeds. I still think it's going to be Warren, though.

JRoberts said...

I don't think this is unique. Wasn't it 1988 when you had Gary Hart and the seven dwarfs?

What about Michelle Bachman, etc. in 2012? What about Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina in 2016.

The real outlier was 2016 when Hillary had her thumb on the scale.

The only reason it's being discussed right now is the Democrats are beginning to realize how screwed they really are for 2020.

stevew said...

That's a very interesting idea you've posed: the voters, or the people they poll, are collectively advancing a candidate for examination of whether he or she can succeed on the national stage and, ultimately, defeat Trump. Warren, under the spotlight as the leader, demonstrated that she could not convince or win over enough voters nationally, so she is now discarded.

Kevin said...

The only reason it's being discussed right now is the Democrats are beginning to realize how screwed they really are for 2020.

And yet the discussion hasn't gone to the next step, which is the party itself is in trouble.

Wince said...

I wonder if RCP chose brown as the color representing Warren's support because it's all gone to shit?

Meade said...

You shouldn’t say prance. That’s like asking is he a boy dog or girl dog. It’s badtalk.

Yancey Ward said...

I think the explanation is pretty simple- in the impeachment push, the media and the Democratic power structure felt it necessary to not only protect Biden, but to actively support his nomination. How do you support that nomination- by tearing down his strongest competitor. I don't think it was an accident that the media started showing an interest in examining the costs of the Medicare-For-All and the lies Warren tells about her history (lies no worse than Biden tells about his history, or any other politician for that matter).

I think Warren missed a golden opportunity offered by the Ukraine Hoax- she should have used it to finish Biden off. That opportunity is still there for the candidate willing to attack Biden at his most vulnerable weaknesses, and someone will do it eventually, I think, if Biden continues in the race. Perhaps Bloomberg will seize the opportunity.

rcocean said...

Warren is still in the hunt. The most important question, which never gets asked, if "Who is your 2nd choice?". Because if all these Buttigig, Warren, Harris, etc. Supporters have Biden as the 2nd Choice, then Biden will win. The Anti-Biden vote seems to consist of around 70% of the D voters. They need to coalesce around ONE candidate, SOON. Bernie needs to get out, he's NEVER going to win. His run is just about vanity. Get out Bernie and endorse Warren.

daskol said...

If Bloomberg goes after Biden, he will have served a useful purpose for all Americans. The Dems may not like it in the short term, but exposing Biden's weakness now is probably the most helpful thing they can do for their 2020 chances.

Gahrie said...

The Democratic baby boomers have killed off a generation of Democratic leadership by smothering them, and the younger Democrats have gone feral.

Original Mike said...

"What happened to Warren?"

People started listening to her. Her policies would impoverish us all.

Bay Area Guy said...

Medicare for All - doesn't work for many union workers and govt employes (Dem voters) who already have good health insurance and don't want it taken away.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

she's a lying sack-o-gawea

...that brown line looks like she's heading to Squaw Valley

rcocean said...

Warren is tanking because the Establishment decided to destroy her over the Medicare for All plan. They don't care what Bernie says. He's a joke and too old. But Warren might get nominated and even win. And that scares the fuck out of them. That's why Republcian Bloomberg got in the race, along with the dullard from Massachutes. Game Plan? Flood the zone in NH, and stop Warren.

Gahrie said...

Bernie needs to get out, he's NEVER going to win. His run is just about vanity.

I have never understood why the Democratic Party allows someone who refuses to identify as a Democrat to run for the nomination of the Democratic Party.

Rory said...

Trump isn't slogging his way through debates, and neither is the Democrats' candidate.

Sebastian said...

As I won't tire of repeating: amazing, isn't it, that handsy Slow Quidproquo Father of Hunter, two-time plagiarizer, is still the best they can do.

But how can this possible work -- will Stacey Abrams be enough to mollify the left?

Oprah! The nomination is yours for the taking!

rcocean said...

Bloomberg is NOT in it to go after Biden. He's in it, to stop Warren. Biden may lose, but if wins, its just the same old, same old. Buttiigig is odd and unknown but he's a safe choice too, only Warren scares them.

daskol said...

I think Warren's wealth tax is an abomination, but I think it's just the kind of abomination that will help her to win the Dem nomination as it is popular with a lot of Dem voters and especially the hard core. In the short run, it's put a target on her back, and the Dem donor class is desperate to weaken her. Besides her weakness in failing to go after Biden, I think this "collapse" in Warren's support is being engineered by the Dem donor class.

Beasts of England said...

The pertinent question: have business owners in downtown Milwaukee paid their riot insurance premiums?

Big Mike said...

You shouldn’t say prance.

C’mon, Meade. Prancer is in vogue this time of year. Also Dasher, Dancer, Donner, Blitzen, Comet, Cupid, and Vixen. It not Rudolph. His red nose signaled his problems with alcohol.

AllenS said...

What happened to Warren? She was scalped.

Rick said...

"What happened to Warren?"

She confirmed everything her critics claimed about her was true which made her unelectable in the general.

But then won't the same thing happen again, collapse when it gets too real?

Presenting a polling decline as the inevitable result of considering him seriously divorces polling declines from the actual triggers. In PB's case his weakness is a lack of experience. But Obama proved that's not much of a problem for most people. Now that it's his turn for a boomlet he's going to be tested by the various interest groups. If he can softly appeal to those interest groups (not the leaders who can never be satisfied) without ruining his brand by pandering he can overtake Biden.

Bob Boyd said...

Warren campaign, licked by the deadly dog tongue of destiny, starts down the trail of tears as supporters reduce life giving donations.

Yancey Ward said...

rcocean,

Someone in a thread yesterday wrote that Bloomberg only declared so that he could spend unlimited money attacking Trump. That commentator may well be correct based on the ads I have seen over the last week from Bloomberg's 'campaign'.

Drago said...

This has already been mapped out at Obama Central.

Its going to be Michelle as a consensus alternative at a brokered Dem convention.

Just yesterday obama was undermining Biden AGAIN!

From National Review:

"President Barack Obama reportedly took a swipe at his former vice president Joe Biden during a recent meeting with a Democratic presidential candidate, saying that Biden “really doesn’t have it” in establishing a bond with the electorate, especially in Iowa."

The obama team, particularly Axelrod, continue to viciously attack Biden publicly.

Its Michelle coming out from the convention as the savior with only a 3 month clean media-protected sprint ti the general using the still very much intact obama campaign organization.

Sebastian said...

"The Anti-Biden vote seems to consist of around 70% of the D voters."

Yes. The 70% need to settle on an alternative soon, otherwise Joe will divide and rule by default. Since minorities appear to be part of the 30, the 70ers need to pick someone who can appeal to blacks: Booker or perhaps Patrick.

But though she's down, I'm not counting Lizzie out. If the left unites around her, a 30+ plurality in key primaries can overcome Slow Joe. Methinks Bernie + Lizzie > Joe.

stevew said...

FYI: In addition to the frequent and regular Tom Steyer ads running locally (tv and radio), Bernie Sanders has entered the fray. This is in Northeastern MA, relatively close to the NH border and on both NH and MA stations. I don't recall seeing or hearing Biden and Warren ads.

daskol said...

When Bernie drops out, which seemed possible when he had his heart attack, his followers will switch to Warren. To the lefties I know, Warren is the electable Bernie alternative.

Yancey Ward said...

Drago,

If that is the strategy, it won't work. I think any plan that depends on a convention battle is a plan that has zero chance of working. The problem is that the primaries themselves will eliminate every candidate but two by early March- one of those two will win the nomination outright before the convention. In fact, I predict we will know who the nominee is going to be by the end of April.

MadisonMan said...

To understand the collapse, you have to know why her numbers went up in the first place. I don't think anyone does.

Quaestor said...

The Democrats need somebody to run against Trump.

Do they? Why not cede the election to Trump? Let the haters write-in their choices. Let Jill Stein have another at-bat. The Dems should forget the White House and concentrate on holding the House and protecting governorships.

Temujin said...

Well, the obvious answer is that she started getting coverage and people started listening to what she was saying.

More interesting is that the entire Democrat lineup has been so taken in by the radical left of their party. The country has been moved by a small cadre of radical left thinking thickly embedded in our education system and our media. Their causes and movements have been slammed into the heads of mostly, but not all, young people for years now. (note the number of people who refer to themselves professionally in a hyphenated way to claim to be 'activists'. I'm a teacher/activist, a lawyer/activist, a paleontologist/activist, etc.)

And in some states, such as California, and soon to be Washington, the entire population has turned into this groupthink being. So the Dems were led to believe that the entire country was following along with this thinking. Then it goes to a national stage where people nationally get to listen and react to this stuff and...well...the reception is so bad that they are trying everything to get Trump knocked out of office before the election, knowing that anyone not named Obama has little chance to win this thing.

John henry said...

Biden was VP. Even if there weren't a bunch of other reasons (health, senility, groping, crime etc and so on) that alone will keep him from the nomination.

I predicted he would be out by the end of the month. He may hang on part that but I'll stick with my prediction for now.

John Henry

Carol said...

Biden will be a fine figurehead for a team of Obama-Clinton regulars. I'd rather he win, if a Democrat must win this thing.

But I worry about his VP choice. Will he try to appease the left with a female? He's already said he would, right?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Buttigieg may be a nice guy and maybe even competent. However, it is a reality that his homosexuality is going to be a deal breaker with certain demographic groups.

It may be unfair....but it is what it is. Blacks and Latinos are not likely to vote FOR a homosexual.

I don't see Michelle Obama as being a saviour of the Democrat party either. She has too much baggage being the wife of Obama and having an angry mean seeming personality that turns of many people. No experience other than being the wife of Obama. Obama doesn't have the coattails that they suppose either as many Blacks have come out and stated that he didn't do so much for them. He was a disappointment in some way.

The strong Communist/Socialist/Totalitarian/SPEND SPEND SPEND give a way free stuff to everyone including illegal aliens turns of the moderate and rank and file Dems.

It doesn't look like there is anyone in their roster that could beat Trump.

Ann Althouse said...

"Bernie needs to get out, he's NEVER going to win."

The Bernie line — the blue line — is doing something. It will never peak and actually get taken seriously as the potential real nominee. It's sort of holding things in place, giving the green line something to prance atop. Running interference. It's up to all the other lines to try to get up past blue and challenge the green. Bernie belongs there as much as any of them do. He has a special, dignified role and we (many of us) like the old guy. If we thought he could win the nomination — if we visualized him as really getting it — we wouldn't like him so much. He's a holding place for some people to hang out and he's the line the serious Biden challengers need to try to cross.

robother said...

So, a 3-way race between Biden, a Socialist and a gay mayor? (I can't believe Bloomberg's late entry attempt to buy the race with TV ads will go anywhere.) Biden by default. The Democrat Bob Dole.

Quaestor said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

maybe the Dem "star-maker machinery behind the Popular Candidate"

is like the famous Plate Spinner, who's job is to keep them all going
at the same time, periodically pumping up a flagging pol, maybe to keep
everyone guessing until they reveal their real candidate.

but Beto spun out, Peto and Pluggs spun up, Warren's wobbling, Kammy's krashing,
Booger's bugging, Amy's shaky, and the rest in La La Land

such a lousy field-- what a thankless job-- they must be beside themselves

Bob Boyd said...

Sexism straight up.

tcrosse said...

Let Bernie have his Last Hurrah, after the way he got schlonged in 2016. Besides, Larry David is having a lot of fun with it. They're both entitled.

Drago said...

MadisonMan: "To understand the collapse, you have to know why her numbers went up in the first place. I don't think anyone does."

I think we do know why her numbers were up initially.

Li'l Tomahawk filled a particular generic lane within the dem primary field: Chick, Senator, seen as center left (ha!), relatively well known, etc.

Generic.

However, she went harder left to cut off Bernie then even harder left to stave off others and now that enough people have seen her and understand more fully what she is peddling, crash and burn.

She's still in it of course and there is no reason to drop out now.

Of course, she will not be Michelle's VP. The obamas will pretend to be moderates by selecting someone safe.

Michael K said...

When you are running on a platform that makes no sense economically, explaining how it works is not a good idea.

I think it's called "Too much information."

Danno said...

She thinks she is so very clever with her "I've got a plan for that." cliche. However, fake Cherokee Elizabeth Warren needs more than a health care plan concocted with a focus group of school children. And math is hard!

bagoh20 said...

One night stand, followed by sobriety.

AllenS said...

I've watched Michelle Obama speaking in front of an audience a couple of times, and she ain't got it. She's a non factor.

Danno said...

And also, the Democrats may think they are unified, but they are clearly in danger of splitting into two parties. One for for Bernie/Warren far far leftists. And the other for Biden, Bloomberg, Buttplug and all those that want to garner votes from independents.

Bob Boyd said...

One night stand, followed by sobriety.

Yup
Voters realizing Warren is not going to make them a sandwich and it's time to find their pants.

Paul said...

Trump is doing to Biden what he did to Hillary. Slowly leaking out damaging things. And the thing is, like Hillary, they are TRUE!!! Even independents see the Democrat side is just a sorry lot.

Trump wants the Kangaroo Court to impeach him. Then more damaging things will come out while at the same time no one can prove his intent.. did he do the investigation pressure on the Ukraine to find dirt or did he do it to catch a obvious father & son criminal duo?

So he comes out voted not guilty while the Dems look like slime. Presto! Reelection! Dems might even lose the house while Trump gets another SCOTUS pick!

And stock market is up, jobs up, soldiers coming home, illegals being thrown back across the borders, etc.... Yea!!!!

MAGA!

I'm Full of Soup said...

Buutegieg is the son of a socialist so he has that going for him like Obama did.

Drago said...

AllenS: "I've watched Michelle Obama speaking in front of an audience a couple of times, and she ain't got it. She's a non factor."

Precisely.

But you forget, we have reached Peak Intersectionalism by the dems and a 3 month utterly protected sprint with 99% global media pro-Michelle reporting and no debates (she can easily claim she will not debate the horrible Orange Man Bad and get away with it), piece of cake.

I still think Trump wins...and Trump strength would be the 1 factor that would give the obamas pause. Cant have a Michelle defeat on the books. Wouldnt look good in the history books the lefties are rewriting daily.

Dingels said...

Biden has the nomination in the bag, if he and hunter do well during their sworn testimony in the Republican controlled Senate impeachment trial.

Drago said...

Michael K: "When you are running on a platform that makes no sense economically, explaining how it works is not a good idea."

Radical anti-semite pro-terrorist commie Jeremy Corbyn learned that lesson decisively during his interview with BBC's Andrew Neil.

Neil skinned Corbyn alive in just 25 minutes in front of the entire world.

Amazing.

cubanbob said...

The problem for the Democrats is that their platform is unacceptable to the majority of the country and their candidates run the gamut of Communists to criminals.

rhhardin said...

It looks like data to me, meaning data with nothing revealed by graphing. Lots of data is like that. You try graphing, and you either get an insight or you don't. If you don't, that just the way that data is. Look for insight elsewhere.

Michael said...

Warren + Buttigieg is a pretty constant number. Sanders floor is his ceiling, and Biden does not, shall we say, inspire confidence. So they are looking for some (any) viable alternative. Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, etc., have failed to launch. Warren launched and then blew herself up. Buttigieg in 2032!

Dagwood said...

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

she's a lying sack-o-gawea


Winner.


Earnest Prole said...

Word on the left side of the street is that she proved herself unserious by refusing to admit Medicare for all would mean higher taxes for all. For true progressives, higher taxes for all is a feature not a bug.

Dingels said...

When the communist don't win the nomination do they still show at the polls? This will be the second election the Dems rat fucked them.

Bay Area Guy said...

If Liz Warren were in the center of the Ukraine scandal, it'd be Quid Pro Faux.

wild chicken said...

I hope Biden picks Klobuchar.

Silly but sensible.

YoungHegelian said...

What we're seeing here is the tectonic fault line of the Democratic Party moving in real time. All the "Intersectional" candidates & the Socialists are the darlings of the White Out-and-Out Lefty Wing of the Democratic Party. This wing of the party controls the media & PR outlets and they NEVER, EVER shut-up & listen. They believe it's important that the rest of us bath in the wisdom that they deign to share with us.

By far the largest share of Democratic voters, however, are minorities, in particular blacks & Latinos. They are concerned with bread & butter issues, and are not looking to make the world safe for Chix with Dix Who Want to Use the Girl's Bathroom at Your Daughter's High School.

There is a yuuuuge disconnect between these two camps, and it's getting thrashed out in the primary. The problem with the Intersectionals & the Socialists is that the minorities see them as useless poseurs unable to deliver the goods even if elected. The Intersectionals & the Socialists see the minority faves such as Biden as hopelessly corrupt fossils of a bygone age of the Democratic Party.

Both are accurate assessments. Where the ball will ultimately land is anyone's guess.

Bay Area Guy said...

The truth is, the Left is unserious about governing a country of 330 Million, and has no fidelity to the US Constitution, our traditions, our history and our culture.

They want to remake the country into some leftist utopia, kinda how they transformed, say, the campus of UC Berkeley. Won't work at the National level. Too many property owners, gun owners, patriots, military veterans, book readers, bloggers, church go-ers, NASCAR fans, hunters, outdoorsmen, capitalists, hot chicks, 401K account owners, homeowners,country western bars, UFC fights, CYO coaches, etc, etc.

Liz Warren is running into an American headwind. Better tighten up that Headdress, girl. This ain't a boring bankruptcy law class in Harvard Square.

narciso said...

actually biden's step up deletion, affects many more people, in the view of many money managers,

Michael said...

I love the Althouse comment section. Reminds me of old days at the bar when we'd sit around pontificating on wild electoral possibilities. While most of what came out of our mouths was half-formed horsesh!t, it was entertaining with a slight touch of insight. I'll always remember the people who got it right: Randy in 1978 who said the country was moving so far right that Reagan was assured the nomination and election in 80, or Phillip who on election night in 04 called Kerry's defeat the death of the Clintonites and to watch out for "that black guy from Illinois in 08".

Someone here today has it 100% right. Twelve months from now we'll know w/o.

Annie C. said...

Whatever happened to Tim Kaine?

Michael K said...

BAG, good comment.

narciso said...

real or Memorex,


https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1199719000424538112

MadisonMan said...

I would never vote for Mrs. Obama. I would actively campaign against her. It's absolutely foolish to have one family too close to power for too long. Exhibit A: Clinton. Exhibit B: Kennedy. Exhibit C: Bush.

The idea that one particular family has the best ideas for the country is laughable.

MikeR said...

Bloomberg would have been a sensible choice, if he hadn't been an idiot and not run and then changed his mind and decided to fix it with his wealth. Now all the progressives are panicking about money in politics.

Fernandinande said...

I like the way they made Warren's line brown because she's an Amerindian, and Buttigieg's dark pink because he's a homosexual, and Sanders' blue because he's a communist, and Bloomberg's yellow because it'd be racist to assign yellow to Yang.

Caligula said...

"Medicare for All - doesn't work for many union workers and govt employes (Dem voters) who already have good health insurance and don't want it taken away."

It also doesn't work for those currently on Medicare, as "Medicare for All" likely means "Medicare for None," as (1) it would be impossible to maintain Medicare payment schedules to providers if that's all anyone paid, and (2) its fantastic cost all but insures serious rationing.

And what better place to ration than among those who may be short on expected Quality-Adjusted Life Years? Those now on Medicare (and those who care about them) would be the biggest losers if Medicare were expanded to cover everyone.

Jim at said...

The idea that one particular family has the best ideas for the country is laughable.

Especially when we already have eight, recent years of bullshit to draw from.

MadTownGuy said...

Mediocre For All = misery equality. Tough sell once you get into the details.

Rosalyn C. said...

What has hurt Warren was putting all her emphasis on her plans and math, imo. People who understand economics and health care know her plan is nonsense or worse, and the general public just doesn't like math. Democrats/liberals don't believe in "God" or want to belong to a religion, they want a political leader they can believe in and worship. Why is Buttigieg gaining and Warren not? He's got the bloom of youth, she's faded. A younger woman wouldn't have the credibility, call it sexism.

I hadn't paid attention to Mayor Buttigieg until today and I looked at the comments by his fans -- he's such a nice guy, very caring, makes a lot of personal phone calls, brought all kinds of progressive ideas to South Bend, has directed a lot of money toward community programs, hired POC and women, pushed through ID cards for undocumented residents. He's checked all the liberal causes. His biggest accomplishments have been tearing down a lot of decrepit housing and an improved attitude in town. Unemployment is down, but less than the Indiana average. And who's to say that economic activity isn't due to Trump? I say Mayor Pete, why leave South Bend if you really love it as much as you say? Stick around and deal with the tough problems. You can always run another year, even in eight or twelve years, and why have a loss on your record?

I think Biden will get the nom. A pragmatic throw away candidate. Somebody has to lose, let it be him.

PM said...

Warren needs to come out as bi. That'll get her through this month.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

Warren needs to come out as bi. That'll get her through this month.

Nobody want's to think about that!

Tulsi should come out as bi..

Gahrie said...

and why have a loss on your record?

Because for the rest of his life, he's going to be introduced as: "Former presidential candidate..."

stevew said...

Here's an idea: Warren is a technocrat and the worst kind, she's got a comprehensive plan for EVERYTHING. To this Masshole she sounds and feels like another Dukakis. POTUS voters don't respond positively to Technocrats; they want visionaries, leaders - ambitious and positive. Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama, Trump; all had a positive goal, a vision of our better future with them. Liz ain't got none of that. She's a schoolmarm scolding you to learn your times tables and sentence diagrams.

Which of the Dems is or can be that leader that says, this is where we need to go, come join me in the journey?

narciso said...

she makes Michael Dukakis seem charismatic doesn't she,

stevew said...

:-)

Greg the class traitor said...

Drago said...
AllenS: "I've watched Michelle Obama speaking in front of an audience a couple of times, and she ain't got it. She's a non factor."

Precisely.

But you forget, we have reached Peak Intersectionalism by the dems and a 3 month utterly protected sprint with 99% global media pro-Michelle reporting and no debates (she can easily claim she will not debate the horrible Orange Man Bad and get away with it), piece of cake.


Doesn't matter. The Democrat Presidential nominee has to get out and talk to people. If you can't connect to voters with your speeches, they're not going to give you their votes.

She could try a "Rose Garden" strategy, but to win with that, you need to be the actual President. A "Michelle's Vegtable Garden" strategy is likely to give the GOP the trifecta in 2020.

Trump might even get above 50%.

Bunkypotatohead said...

Maybe the pollsters are just wrong again. Their random errors don't constitute a horse race.

DanTheMan said...

>>Biden wins the nomination, dies a week later, and Hillary steps up to save the party and the nation.

He should stay away from Fort Marcy Park, and try not to walk down the streets in Bloomingdale. And stay away from prison guards in NYC.

If Biden gets the nomination, he picks Stacy Abrams, and will try to flip Georgia.