June 23, 2019

It's Call-Off Trump again.

First, he called off the Iran raid...



Next, he calls off the ICE raids...



If this is some trick strategy, he can't keep repeating it — saying I'm going to do X, no, I called it off — can he?

IN THE COMMENTS: David Begley says:
He’s unpredictable. Tomorrow he might nuke Iran. The mullahs need to think about that.
I react:
Playing "unpredictable" can itself become predictable. That's my point.

Once you see it as a game, it will be perceived as disrespectful and unserious.

In my view, he's crossed the line already. Question how many times he needs to do this pattern before you find it disrespectful and unserious.

563 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 400 of 563   Newer›   Newest»
J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

It is better to judge a strategy by its end results and not by ones own relative understanding of the strategy when the results are not yet clear.

Right, right. He's playing 4-D chess! So let me ask, at what point do you believe it would be possible to judge this decision by Trump poorly?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Congress has tried to assert its power to DECLARE war is really the authority needed for the Commander in Chief to WAGE war. They are wrong and history and the Supreme Court show great deference to the inherent powers of the president to decide when where and how much force is applied. Declaring war is a political act. Waging it is a purely executive act. Wise executives know how to balance the two requirements.

Drago said...

Farmer: "Right, right. He's playing 4-D chess!"

Even 1-D strategies have a beginning, middle and end.

Im sorry this eludes you.

Inga...Allie Oop said...

“It is better to judge a strategy by its end results and not by ones own relative understanding of the strategy when the results are not yet clear.”

Hahaha, said by Drago the guy who has peddled conspiracy theories for the past two years and TRULY believes that Trump underwent a coup attempt perpetrated by our very own law enforcement agencies. So when are all the traitors going to GTMO ?? Keep hope alive.

Drago said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...


Inga is now 6 months behind the dem talking points which no longer argue it didnt happen, but that it did AND was justified.


In 6 more months Inga will be shocked at what the dems are saying today!

LOL

J. Farmer said...

@KheSanh 0802:

I ask Farmer to tell me what else Trump could be doing within the law that he hasn't done to deal with the immigration issues.

Trump already has the power under current law to deport illegal aliens with final deportation orders. Neither the Courts nor Congress are standing in his way. These are people who have already had their day in court.

I know Farmer believes that if we had waited ten years the Iranians would have had an epiphany and become peace loving world citizens, either that or he figured he'd be dead and it would be someone else's problem.

If you want to criticize my Iran policy, you should at least endeavor to understand it. My preferred policy neither requires nor expects for Iran to "become peace loving world citizens." I don't expect that of Saudi Arabia, either, and I'm also not for toppling that regime. And given that I am 37, I do not plan to be dead in the next 10 years.

I vote with those who are convinced that Iran was cheating all along and which put them in position to continue to advance their nuclear development right now as they have just announced.

Please identify a commitment under the JCPOA that Iran was "cheating all along" on.

Drago said...

Comey and McCabe are already publicly arguing over who authorized the leaks Inga says didnt happen.

LOL

Discuss.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Even 1-D strategies have a beginning, middle and end.

Im sorry this eludes you.


You're long on bromides, short on specifics. I'll repeat: at what point do you believe it would be possible to judge this decision by Trump poorly?

Bruce Hayden said...

“Once you see it as a game, it will be perceived as disrespectful and unserious.

In my view, he's crossed the line already. Question how many times he needs to do this pattern before you find it disrespectful and unserious.”

Disrespectful of whom?

My view is that respect has nothing to do with any of this. There is, in my mind only one thing that is important here, and that is winning. And in that view, fear is far more important here than respect. The problem is that being the crazy guy threatening to do something horrible works great as long as the threat is credible, but requires that you ultimately have to, on occasion actually pull the trigger. And that is likely the worry here, that Trump threatens dire consequences, then backs off at the last minute. If he does it enough then there will come a time when his enemies, domestic and foreign, start figuring that he is bluffing. So, he needs to pull the trigger sometimes, just like you need to have the good hand sometimes if you sometimes bluff. That is what ultimately happened with Obama - he drew his red lines, they were crossed. Rinse and repeat, and ultimately the Syrians and the Russians knew that he would, in the end, always blink.

Part of why Trump still is feared by his enemies, domestic and foreign, is that while he may pull back in one direction, as an indication of good will, often they will find themselves under attack by him in another direction. So, with the Iranians, he pulls back and cancels the planned air strikes, supposedly in order to prevent Iranian casualties, and next thing they know, a bloodless cyber attack by our military against theirs is successful. Maybe a coincidence. But are they willing to bet on it? Strategically, the cyber attack was probably the better way to go anyway, since the fastest way to get the Iranian people behind their ruling regime would be for us to kill a bunch of Iranians. As long as we can prevent that, and keep up the pressure otherwise, we have a decent chance of regime change there.

Anonymous said...

@ Farmer Are you upset that Trump did not commit an unconstitutional act by taking us into a war with Iran? I don't understand.

As to deporting processed illegals: is it not worthwhile to postpone that a couple of weeks in hopes of solving the larger immigration problems? You and I both know that Pelosi's failure will result in the deportation as planned. Pelosi certainly does.

iowan2 said...

All past administrations launch trial balloons(a term used almost exclusively today in politics) to gauge reactions to administrations actions and policies.
The difference today, President Trump does the launching himself. Not some "White House source close to the President".
More President Trump, doing his own wet work. Now we will see if Pelosi can move the ball. If not, two dozen Democrats running for President will be forced to wail about the evil of President Trump deporting aliens, while at the same time explaining why its a good practice to ignore Judicial orders. At least they should be forced to explain. But Republicans let the narrative grow that President Trump is putting aliens in detention camps, when they are free to walk back home at their will.

mockturtle said...

Farmer, the nitpicker-in-residence, has taken my post at 11:04 personally. While I may have had in mind the likes of Chuck Todd--or even our very own Chuck--he sees himself as the subject, as many a narcissist would.

Rockport Conservative said...

I thought it was his usual trolling the Democrats scheme until I read the story in The Washington Examiner saying:
"This week's big leak about a major Immigration and Customs Enforcement operation was orchestrated by acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan in an effort to sabotage the raids before they were scheduled to take place, according to three current and two former senior administration officials."

That puts a very different slant on it. Trump didn't leak the details, he was "trumped" by a leftover liberal in the administration.

Michael K said...

Expecting the president to remove illegals who have had their day in court and already have final deportation orders is now "insisting on the perfect."

Ignoring the reality that the acting DHS Director blew the plan by warning the target cities to get ready to hide the illegals and resist the ICE agents is Farmer's way of resisting logic.

Howard said...

Shorter Drago: exitus ācta probat

rcocean said...

Trump announces ICE raids. Then delays two weeks so D's can produce results. What's the problem? If D's don't produce - justified ICE raids. "We tried to get D's To reform the law. we gave them a chance - it didn't work...blah blah"

And Iran's been warned. Next time they go over the line, Trump says "I stopped the war-hawks before. I went against my Generals and held out my hand in peace. But Iran slapped it down, so this time...." Puts us in a perfect situation.

Again what's the problem?

wwww said...

Post and comment thread summarized:
Base voters & Independent voters Do Not React the Same.

Drago said...

Bruce Hayden: "Part of why Trump still is feared by his enemies, domestic and foreign, is that while he may pull back in one direction, as an indication of good will, often they will find themselves under attack by him in another direction."

Correct.

We know about the increasing sanctions and there are rumors of significant cyber activity as well as potential clandestine activities.

Time will tell.

Michael K said...

Drago the guy who has peddled conspiracy theories for the past two years and TRULY believes that Trump underwent a coup attempt perpetrated by our very own law enforcement agencies.

Yup, Inga is this dumb and this far behind the curve.

rcocean said...

95% of Democrats, Liberals, and the MSM (all the same) - say "Orange Man bad" no matter what Trump does. He's either a craven appeaser or a madman who going to blow up the world. He's either weak and indecisive or he's a bull in a china shop.

Its just "Orange man bad" 365 days 24/7. It gets tiresome. Extremely.

Michael K said...

Blogger wwww said...
Post and comment thread summarized:
Base voters & Independent voters Do Not React the Same.


Correction: Base voters and Democrat voters don't react the same.

Drago said...

www: "Base voters & Independent voters Do Not React the Same."

Incorrect again, per usual.

Republican base voters and independents largely in agreement.

Marxists/leftist dems/LLR's sputtering and discombobulated.

Drago said...

Michael K beat me to it.

wwww said...

"Republican base voters and independents largely in agreement."

Not in this thread they aren't.

Drago said...

Michael K beat me to it.

wwww said...

Correction: Base voters and Democrat voters don't react the same.

ok. I'll be specific. I am referring to Farmer and Althouse.

Farmer, if you are not a Independent, I apologize for the misinterpretation. I do believe Althouse would call herself a Independent.

Fernandinande said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

wwww: "Not in this thread they aren't."

LOL

Let me guess: you are an "independent"

Too funny.

Ray - SoCal said...

Agree with Michael K. - it’s amazing Trump gets anything done.

I wonder if this immigration raid was to expose / smoke out who was resisting Trumps immigration policy. My guess is Trump is very frustrated by the lack of action on illegal aliens. Lots of words and promises, but no action. Nielsen was fired for this issue.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Ignoring the reality that the acting DHS Director blew the plan by warning the target cities to get ready to hide the illegals and resist the ICE agents is Farmer's way of resisting logic.

Right. It's not as if Trump can control who heads DHS. Remember when I sent you some links the other day criticizing Trump's handling of immigration, and you said they were all "Pat Buchanan wannabes." Well here are a couple more links:

Kevin McAleenan Continues Kirstjen Nielsen's Sabotage Of President Trump (5/25/19)

Tweeter-in-Chief Fails to Prevent 100% of Illegal Immigrant Families From Being Released on U.S. Soil (5/24/19)

Former Customs Guy Heading DHS Ignores Illegal Aliens In The Streets (4/28/19)

rcocean said...

Trump's real problem is he put too much trust in Establishment types when he took office. He trusted Sessions to protect him. He trusted Kelly to enforce the immigration laws. He thought Tillerson was a foreign policy expert. He thought Prebius knew what he was doing. He trusted Ryan to keep his word and help build the wall. Etc.

He seems to have gotten over respecting the Generals. What a bunch of prima donnas, liberals, and idiots many of them turned out to be. You really have to wonder how and why some of them rose so far. They seem more PC than the Pols.

Fernandinande said...

Farmer, the nitpicker-in-residence, has taken my post at 11:04 personally.

No, he just pointed out that both quotes are kinda dumb. They're also self-refuting by criticizing critics.

J. Farmer said...

@mockturtle:

Farmer, the nitpicker-in-residence, has taken my post at 11:04 personally. While I may have had in mind the likes of Chuck Todd--or even our very own Chuck--he sees himself as the subject, as many a narcissist would.

I took nothing personally. I criticized Roosevelt's statement and said why I disagreed with it. Notice how I did not say one thing about you. Meanwhile, your response to my critique of Roosevelt was to say I was a "nitpicker-in-residence" and "narcissist." If you're worried about people taking comments personally, you may want to look in a mirror.

Drago said...

Farmer: "It's not as if Trump can control who heads DHS."

You really think Trump could get a hard charger thru McConnell and Romney and Collins and Murkowsky?

Really.

wwww said...

Drago,
I am making a narrow observation about the post and response comments. In contrast to my narrow observation, Althouse suggests a wider observation.

Drago said...

rcocean: "He seems to have gotten over respecting the Generals. What a bunch of prima donnas, liberals, and idiots many of them turned out to be. You really have to wonder how and why some of them rose so far. They seem more PC than the Pols."

By and large Trump is saddled with obamas flag staffers.

walter said...

That's it.
Game over.
We're losing Farmer to his second choice.
Berno.

Drago said...

wwww: "Drago, I am making a narrow observation about the post and response comments. In contrast to my narrow observation, Althouse suggests a wider observation."

You responded directly to my relevant general observation with your narrow irrelevant observation.

Either way, independents by and large align with the republican base on this.

Anonymous said...

@Farmer The UN doesn't seem to happy with Iranian performance.
Going back further in time: another "cheating opinion"

Of course these, like yours are only opinions, because the inspection regimen is so faulty the even a child would understand that we do not have complete information on Iran's nuclear facilities. I prefer the opinion that Iran cheats.

As to your Iranian policy; what is it? Follow the Obama agreement and hope for the best? I have never been clear on your policy other than you believe the JCPOA is working and maybe we should be nice to the Iranians while they use proxies to stir up the ME. Are you good with the development of ballistic missiles? Are you good with Iran having a free path to a nuke in 2025/6. You'll still be just a kid then.

As someone said yesterday the Iranians have been at war with us for over 40 years, even though we're not sure we are at war with them.

William said...

Asylum seekers cannot be deported until their cases are properly adjudicated. After their cases have been adjudicated, they cannot be deported because they have lived in the community and put down ties. The only illegal immigrants that can be deported are those that have committed violent felonies. Violent felonies do not include DUI's that involve fatalities. That is pretty much the Dem position. I wish Trump luck on his efforts to get the Dems and the media to formally enunciate this position.....Hayden makes a good point. By simultaneously backing off a military strike whilst at the same time launching a cyber attack, he gets to appear moderate but in a threatening way.....He's not predictably unpredictable. Sometimes he follows through on his threats. Who wants to bet the farm that he's bluffing/

J. Farmer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

I am still trying to wrap my head around Amadeus' belief that the federal agencies are staffed with personnel who are willing to crank out policy papers in alignment with Trump policies.

Amazing.

Bruce Hayden said...

Keep something else in mind with the Iranians - they appear to have gone out of their way to try to get us the start the bloodshed. They didn’t actually sink the tankers, just holed them. And they brought down one of our very expensive unmanned drones. There has been a suggestion that we had planes in the area that were likely vulnerable to their latest missiles. I am thinking something like a Rivet Joint, with a crew of maybe 30 or so. As I understand it, such planes, as well as AWACS etc, are very likely present whenever this sort of operation is planned. They picked the unmanned drone instead to bring down. They were dancing up to the line, but not crossing it. And neither did Trump.

J. Farmer said...

@KheSanh 0802:

@ Farmer Are you upset that Trump did not commit an unconstitutional act by taking us into a war with Iran? I don't understand.

Certainly not. I haven't even intimated that.

As to deporting processed illegals: is it not worthwhile to postpone that a couple of weeks in hopes of solving the larger immigration problems? You and I both know that Pelosi's failure will result in the deportation as planned. Pelosi certainly does.

So you're saying Trump should agree not to deport people with final orders of deportation in order to get a deal out of Pelosi? Would those people then be allowed to stay, or do they still get deported? If it's the latter, how does delaying the inevitable for two weeks create some sense of urgency under Pelosi to work with the President?

Drago said...

Bruce Hayden: "Rivet Joint, with a crew of maybe 30 or so. As I understand it, such planes, as well as AWACS etc, are very likely present whenever this sort of operation is planned."

Every time.

Robert Cook said...

"What exactly is the 'brink of war' and who, exactly, has been making armed moves in that direction. Trump has laid out the conditions for Iran to become a peaceful member of the 'international community'. Iran's answer is armed aggression."

We already had a deal with Iran that promised to bring them into the international community, but Trump scotched that arbitrarily. What "armed aggression?" Blowing a spy drone out of their airspace? (We claim it was in international airspace, which we would, even if it were not true, and they claim it was in their airspace. Whereever it actually was, we can certainly assume at the least it was near their airspace. You can be sure we'd blow any spy drone out of the sky that came near our airspace.)We are the provocateurs.

Drago said...

Farmer: "So you're saying Trump should agree not to deport people with final orders of deportation in order to get a deal out of Pelosi?"

Trump has not said this.

Birkel said...

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/multiple_fingers_pointing_at_alleged_leaker_of_plans_for_ice_raids_today.html

Imagine the reasons Trump had to change course.
Althouse thinks he's playing a game with rules by himself.
What if others are playing and breaking/disregarding rules?

You cannot have boring if the Deep State has unelected and nearly unconstrained power.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

You really think Trump could get a hard charger thru McConnell and Romney and Collins and Murkowsky?

Really.


Harder than McAleenan, an Obama appointee twice promoted by Trump? In a New York minute.

Drago said...

Cookue: "What "armed aggression?" Blowing a spy drone out of their airspace?"

Cookie always makes me laugh.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Trump has not said this.

Then what was the strategy of a two-week delay supposed to accomplish? The targets are the 1.7 million people who have already had their day in court and already have final deportation orders. If Trump is not going to agree to let them stay (and he shouldn't!) what leverage does this two-week delay give him?

Anonymous said...

@ www I don't consider myself one of Trump's base. In fact if you look at my geographic, educational and work history you would peg me as a more than likely Democrat ( given the stereotypes alive today). Given that, I agree with about 90% of what Trump does because I think it is the right thing. Unlike many others I recognize the tactics that Trump uses and I also recognize that he is a goals, not a process guy. My military background teaches me that it is better most of the time to be aggressive. I enjoy that in Trump.

Drago said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

Farmer: "Harder than McAleenan, an Obama appointee twice promoted by Trump? In a New York minute."

Disagree.

Trump does not know all these people and McConnell is not going to let one thru.

Trumps only hope for this term are decent recess appts who will also be slow-balled by entire dept staffs.

J. Farmer said...

@KheSanh 0802:

Unlike many others I recognize the tactics that Trump uses and I also recognize that he is a goals, not a process guy

Fair enough, but how do you expected these "tactics" to result in Trump achieving his "goals?"

Rusty said...

J.
Remmber when I told you that Iran had no intntion of living up to the agreement and that giving them cash only accelerates their nuclear programs?
Yeah. Keep your imaginary internet money.

Jim Gust said...

Odd to talk about Trump changing course without discussing the leaker who triggered it.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/multiple_fingers_pointing_at_alleged_leaker_of_plans_for_ice_raids_today.html

Under the circumstances, this does not count as a flip flop.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Trumps only hope for this term are decent recess appts who will also be slow-balled by entire dept staffs.

The your position is that Trump essentially had no choice but to Make McAleenan acting head?

hstad said...

Blogger rehajm said...".....If he keeps doing it he does look dumb....?"6/23/19, 7:00 AM

This comment encapsulates the anti-Trump crowd. To be honest, how does he look dumb? None of his options are thrown away and "David Begley" made an excellent point, "he's unpredictable". Also, I just don't get this article written by AA? What's the point? Nice "clickbait"!

Drago said...

Farmer: "Then what was the strategy of a two-week delay supposed to accomplish?"

I can only surmise and the surmising upthread captures my beliefs as well.

There is no point to repeating the same things over and over again.

Anonymous said...

@ Farmer Come on, man. Trump has put Pelosi in a box. That's leverage 1. He has smoked out McAleenan and it will be a brave person that leaks the next scheduled raids. That's leverage 2. Read up on negotiating strategy/tactics. From HBS - free!

MeatPopscicle1234 said...

As a Trump supporter, I have to say I’m getting tired of the rope-a-dope... I understand that this is part of how he negotiates, but at the same time I want to see some fucking action and consequences... Don’t trigger some huge media apocalypse promising your going to finally start playing hardball, get your base all worked up to believe that FINALLY shit is gonna get real, and then back out at the 11th hour cuz the treasonous, back-stabbing, America-hating left asks you pretty-please!!! We’re STILL WAITING for documents to be de-classified, for the wall to be built, for the perpetrators of the biggest abuse of government power in American history to be arrested, stand trial and face justice... still waiting for Michael Flynn and others who were railroaded by the DOJ / FBI / Legal System to be exonerated, and STILL WAITING for the SWAMP TO BE DRAINED!!!

rcocean said...

"By and large Trump is saddled with obamas flag staffers."

Yeah, maybe that's it. All those Generals supporting "Transgenders" in the military was a shock. Then Kelly and Mathis flouncing off because Trump didn't agree with them over Afghanistan was another.

J. Farmer said...

@Rusty:

Remmber when I told you that Iran had no intntion of living up to the agreement and that giving them cash only accelerates their nuclear programs?
Yeah. Keep your imaginary internet money.


Wait, you mean after Trump pulled out of an agreement that the Iranians were adhering to and then spent the last 12 months trying to strangle Iran economically, the Iranians may be abrogating some of their responsibilities under the JCPOA? Wow, who could have seen that coming?

Drago said...

Farmer: "The your position is that Trump essentially had no choice but to Make McAleenan acting head?"

Trump cannot fight all possible battles at every level across the entire govt at all times.

Drago said...

Apparently Trump is not as politically competent as Farmer.

rcocean said...

George Marshall thought FDR's decision to delay invading France and approve the invasion of North Africa, delayed winning the war for almost a year. Yet, he never even thought about resigning. He just said, "Yes Sir" and got on with his job.

Drago said...

Farmer: "Wait, you mean after Trump pulled out of an agreement that the Iranians were adhering to ..."

LOL

And we are done here.

J. Farmer said...

@KheSanh 0802:

@ Farmer Come on, man. Trump has put Pelosi in a box. That's leverage 1. He has smoked out McAleenan and it will be a brave person that leaks the next scheduled raids. That's leverage 2. Read up on negotiating strategy/tactics.

So let's say that boxed in Pelosi, by some miracle, gives Trump what he wants in terms of changing asylum law. What effect would that have on the 1.7 million people with final deportation orders that were supposedly going to start getting deported two weeks earlier?

Original Mike said...

"Yup, Inga is this dumb and this far behind the curve."

IDK, the fact that she is conspicuously absent on collusion threads now tells me she knows it's come a cropper.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

I can only surmise and the surmising upthread captures my beliefs as well.

That's fair. There were 150+ comments here before I waded in, and I have not read them all.

Trump cannot fight all possible battles at every level across the entire govt at all times.

Agreed, but given the centrality of immigration enforcement to his campaign and the importance of it to the county, the head of the DHS is not comparable to "battles at every level across the entire govt at all times."

Apparently Trump is not as politically competent as Farmer.

Perhaps not. And you know, I'm not a filmmaker either, but I don't have any problem saying why I think a film is bad.

LOL

And we are done here.


I can't refute an incredulous stare. If you care to point out a violation of the terms of the JCPOA, by all means go ahead.


Inga...Allie Oop said...

“And we are done here.”

Hahahaha. Drago loses.

Michael K said...

then back out at the 11th hour cuz the treasonous, back-stabbing, America-hating left asks you pretty-please!!!

No, the treasonous back stabber leaked the cities and date. Pelosi will do nothing. We will have a new DHS Director and the raids will go at a time not disclosed.

Drago said...

Farmer: "I can't refute an incredulous stare"

Then its a goid thing I wasnt staring.

How do you feel about bemused chuckles?

Drago said...

Inga: "Hahahaha. Drago loses."

Oh, just like that?

LOL

I am starting to see why it is you still believe in the hoax dossier.

Michael K said...

they claim it was in their airspace.

Cookie always agrees with our enemies.

Farmer only sometimes.

Gk1 said...

Would it surprise anyone that Trump doesn't trust the deep state to keep its trap shut about imminent military strikes? The Dept. of State gleefully leaked his conversations with world leaders. Why in fuck would he trust these shitbirds to keep quiet? The mullah's aren't the only ones who were caught flat footed by Trump's calling off of the strike.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Then its a goid thing I wasnt staring.

I was actually referencing the philosopher David Lewis and what he was criticizing were arguments from personal incredulity.

How do you feel about bemused chuckles?

Generally I feel that people do not know what the word "bemused" means. Not certain if that's the case here.

wwww said...

"You responded directly to my relevant general observation with your narrow irrelevant observation."

My original comment was a response to the squabbling in the comment thread and commenter's response to Althouse. Sorry if you read it as a broader statement.

"Either way, independents by and large align with the republican base on this."

I wait for the polls to see the broader response. I like analytics. Prediction and analysis -- oil supply to housing stock to pharmacological stock pricing to voting. Twitter/blogs/friends/personal assumptions are not a great way to get a statistical understanding or predict group behaviour of more then 100 million people. & I've noted, the less personally invested one is, the more accurate the observations of future behaviour. That's why Althouse is generally better at prediction then her commenters.

My POV, others may differ.

Drago said...

Farmer: "Generally I feel that people do not know what the word "bemused" means. Not certain if that's the case here."

I am thinking Mike Myers in "So I Married An Axe Muderer"

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Cookie always agrees with our enemies.

Farmer only sometimes.


I agree with the truth. Saying that someone "agrees with our enemies" is just a dumb rhetorical trick meant to discredit them without having to bother with the substance of their arguments. I make this point to you over and over again, and it continually flies right over your head.

Drago said...

wwww: "Twitter/blogs/friends/personal assumptions are not a great way to get a statistical understanding or predict group behaviour of more then 100 million people."

You dont say.

Drago said...

Farmer: "I agree with the truth."

Mostly you agree with your hypotheticals.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

I am thinking Mike Myers in "So I Married An Axe Muderer"

Got me with that reference, Drago. I love that film. I used to have a bit of a thing for Nancy Travis, and one of my best friends in high school I had a huge red Jew fro, and we constantly quoted the dad yelling at Heed.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Mostly you agree with your hypotheticals.

Isn't that everybody?

Drago said...

Farmer: "Isn't that everybody?"

Yep!

Drago said...

Farmer: "Got me with that reference, Drago. I love that film. I used to have a bit of a thing for Nancy Travis, and one of my best friends in high school I had a huge red Jew fro, and we constantly quoted the dad yelling at Heed."

You're preaching to the choir baby.

Drago said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J. Farmer said...

You're preaching to the choir baby.

That movie rarely comes up among my fellow movie nerd friends, so I'm always delighted when a reference gets made.

Drago said...

Except I didnt have the huge red Jew fro.

Im surprised you werent cast in a bit part on Starsky & Hutch.

J. Farmer said...

Yep!

I just fail to see how "you agree with our enemies" is a challenge to a single argument I have made.

Drago said...

While in my last cruise I roomed with a Navy EOD and worked out with the staff SEAL.

He made us cry.

We would watch that flick and repeat it word for word.

If you missed a word you were booted from the room for 5 minutes.

J. Farmer said...

Im surprised you werent cast in a bit part on Starsky & Hutch.

Being born after the show ceased production is one reason. There was the film remake, I suppose. I hardly could have done a worse job than Ben Stiller.

Drago said...

Farmer: "I just fail to see how "you agree with our enemies" is a challenge to a single argument I have made."

It is true that its not necessarily an argument, except in cookies case.

J. Farmer said...

If you missed a word you were booted from the room for 5 minutes.

Have played a similar game with The Big Lebowski. Played with a lot of weed and white Russians.

Drago said...

Farmer: "I suppose. I hardly could have done a worse job than Ben Stiller."

I was thinking about the movie because Stiller and "over the top"

MikeD said...

Actually cancelled due to a deep state leak of the details. From the American Thinker: "The chronic problem of sabotage by bureaucrats hostile to the outsider president shaking up the Deep State will never be solved until unmasking and punishment become the order of the day. That’s why it is so heartening that with unusual swiftness, accusations are pointing to the alleged identity of a leaker who successfully delayed implementation of a key Trump policy initiative, the planned ICE raids on illegal alien scofflaws who have defied court orders for their deportation." "Anna Giaritelli of the Washington Examiner reports on the evidence leading to accusations against acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan as the orchestrator of a leak campaign intended to stymie the policy of the elected leader of the executive branch, a campaign that has succeeded for at least two weeks:"

Drago said...

Farmer you have got to make the Red fro your pic for awhile.

J. Farmer said...

Sounds like McAleenan is due for a pink slip, no?

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Farmer you have got to make the Red fro your pic for awhile.

Whose red fro?

n.n said...

The Democrat and establishment's Water Closet is still seeping and threatening American's civil and human rights, and national viability. Send in Deep Plunger to resume clearing the climate of corruption and environmental blight that it engenders.

walter said...

Farmer said...Played with a lot of weed and white Russians.
--
Racism and collusion!
I knew it.

Mark O said...

Maybe Ann can predict that Trump is unpredictable, but I don't think she can predict what he will do.

rcocean said...

MSM is now pushing the saudi-arabia-khashoggi story AGAIN. No one cares about this. We got a million more important problems then this kerfuffle.

But that's the power of the Left-wing Media. They have the microphone - so all their Bullshit get talked about, while real problems go unnoticed. Of course, it doesn't help that most Americans Dumb-shit conformists who follow the leader.

rcocean said...

I'm just glad J. Farmer has shown up, so that all the Althouse commentators have someone to talk to.

He's like Miss Loneyhearts for Conservatives.

Drago said...

Farmer, there was a typo in your post with the red fro that made it appear it was you.

Drago said...

rcocean: "I'm just glad J. Farmer has shown up, so that all the Althouse commentators have someone to talk to.
He's like Miss Loneyhearts for Conservatives."

Ok, thats pretty funny.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

Farmer, there was a typo in your post with the red fro that made it appear it was you.

Ah, I see it. I'd delete and fix it, but then the thread would just get more confused. So, just for the record, it was a friend of mine we would tease with the lines from So I Married.... I never had a red Jew fro.

J. Farmer said...

@rcocean:

I'm just glad J. Farmer has shown up, so that all the Althouse commentators have someone to talk to.

He's like Miss Loneyhearts for Conservatives.


Now, now. Don't let the green-eyed monster rear its ugly head. Hug and kisses.

magamamma said...

The ICE raids were leaked by McAleenan, put ICE in danger, Potus is working on a new strategy, hence in Camp David were no leaks will happen.

gilbar said...

Speaking of 'calling it off, again'; the Minneapolis Red Star Tribune writes...

questions about the marital history of Rep. Ilhan Omar and whether she once married a man — possibly her own brother — to skirt immigration laws.
The questions surfaced again this month in a state probe of campaign finance violations showing that Omar filed federal taxes in 2014 and 2015 with her current husband, Ahmed Hirsi, while she was still legally married to but separated from Elmi.

Although she has legally corrected the discrepancy, she has declined to say anything about how or why it happened.


The discrepancy!
I've had some relationship discrepancies before; usually about billing matters*, but i've never considered tax fraud and bigamy to be discrepancies

billing matters* No i haven't! just trying to see if you're paying attention

Michael K said...

Saying that someone "agrees with our enemies" is just a dumb rhetorical trick meant to discredit them without having to bother with the substance of their arguments.

You agree with the Iranians and John Kerry that they are in total compliance with whatever Obama wanted them to do. 10,000 rockets to Hezbollah is fine with you because you and Pat Buchanan don't like Israel. What might happen if Hezbollah manages to get a few rockets to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem and kill a thousand Jews is no concern of yours. If Israel attacks Iran and sets off a nuclear war in the Middle East, that's OK too.

Yes, it "flies over my head."

pacwest said...

@Farmer
I won't be around to argue JCPOA with you today, but since you asked, Iran has violated the terms of the JCPOA several times regarding possession of heavy water. The have been able to come back into compliance by selling excess production, but have been out of compliance several times. Centrifuge work is unverifiable due to noninspection of military bases, but I believe the general consensus is they are out of compliance on this also.

Drago said...

magamamma: "The ICE raids were leaked by McAleenan, put ICE in danger, Potus is working on a new strategy, hence in Camp David were no leaks will happen."

Similar to Adm Rogers going to Trump tower during the transition to warn him that obama and his minions were still spying on Trump and his team which ked Trump to move the entire transition from Trump Tower to New Jersey.

Of course Inga still denies that that the surveillance already admitted to by all the obamaites occurred.

Which is very amusing.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

You agree with the Iranians and John Kerry that they are in total compliance with whatever Obama wanted them to do

No. They are in compliance with the terms negotiated in the JCPOA.

10,000 rockets to Hezbollah is fine with you because you and Pat Buchanan don't like Israel. What might happen if Hezbollah manages to get a few rockets to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem and kill a thousand Jews is no concern of yours.

That has nothing to do with the JCPOA, and the job of protecting Israel belongs to the Israelis, just as the job of protecting America belongs to Americans.

If Israel attacks Iran and sets off a nuclear war in the Middle East, that's OK too.

Israel cannot set off a nuclear war with a country that has no nuclear weapons.

Fernandinande said...

Yes, it "flies over my head."

Obviously.

Drago said...

pacwest: "Centrifuge work is unverifiable due to noninspection of military bases, but I believe the general consensus is they are out of compliance on this also."

This.

Obama and Kerry made sure that there is no chance that any independent inspections are possible and even then, only at installations that dont matter.

In top of all the billions handed over.

Michael K said...

That has nothing to do with the JCPOA, and the job of protecting Israel belongs to the Israelis, just as the job of protecting America belongs to Americans.

The billions Obama gave them paid for those rockets.

Fernandistein seems to be resuming the hatred that resulted in him wishing me dead. I have never figured it out but some things are unexplainable.

Drago said...

Farmer: "No. They are in compliance with the terms negotiated in the JCPOA."

Which has no real compliance inspection or enforcement mechanisms.

Rabel said...

"If this is some Trick strategy..."

"In my view, he's crossed the line already."

Bit of a leap there. Did you firm up your opinion that it was indeed a trick strategy between the time of your initial post and Dave's comment?

It looks to me like two unrelated events and two unrelated decisions.

Sheridan said...

J. Farmer - you willing to be your life and the lives of your loved ones that Iran has no nukes? I view JCPOA like a domestic violence restraining order. How often does the perpetrator violate the RO? How many innocents are murdered because the RO piece of paper didn't restrain the perp? As China gets most/much of its oil through the Straits of Hormuz, I'm thinking they are updating their plans to constrain/neutralize Iran. BTW, was there any chatter about Iran buying nukes from the Pakis, back in the day?

narciso said...

The ransom the colonists would have paid the barbary pirates would have yielded the same results, at best a hudna like the Houthis have done since last year,

J. Farmer said...

@pacwest:

I won't be around to argue JCPOA with you today, but since you asked, Iran has violated the terms of the JCPOA several times regarding possession of heavy water. The have been able to come back into compliance by selling excess production, but have been out of compliance several times

Yes, there have been a few instances of minor breeches of heavy water limits. Heavy water is of minimal use to the Iranians given that the Arak reactor has been reconfigured. And recall, the reasons these limits were known is because inspectors monitor the Heavy Water Production Plant.

Centrifuge work is unverifiable due to noninspection of military bases, but I believe the general consensus is they are out of compliance on this also.

And who is promulgating this "general consensus?" Where would these centrifuges come from? That kind of arrangement would require Iran to divert dual-use equipment. This was how Iran's original program back in 2002/2003 was discovered. When there zero inspectors working inside the country.

narciso said...

Just like communists and Shia radicals organized to topple the Shah, Shia and Sunni radicals are working against the kingdom, that's what this khashoggi business is about.

J. Farmer said...

@Sheridan:

J. Farmer - you willing to be your life and the lives of your loved ones that Iran has no nukes?

I am not willing to bet the lives of my loved ones for anything, but would I bet my own life on the premise that Iran has no nuclear weapons right now? Yes, I would.

How many innocents are murdered because the RO piece of paper didn't restrain the perp?

Except the JCPOA is not merely a "piece of paper." Iran's facilities, mines, import of dual-use equipment, and nuclear cycle are under IAEA monitoring and inspections. The agreement does not require us to merely trust the Iranians.

J. Farmer said...

@narciso:

Just like communists and Shia radicals organized to topple the Shah, Shia and Sunni radicals are working against the kingdom, that's what this khashoggi business is about.

And luckily for them, MBS' petulance, incompetence, and recklessness are doing most of the heavy lifting.

narciso said...

Do you ever tire of being wrong:

https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2016/11/23/the-truth-about-john-bolton-the-iraq-war-and-wmd-diplomacy/?fbclid=IwAR2RMk55QnCa684r-TFVYgnYOz9j9aibyfj1x8hYKLJToDnFOghWn94KCXk

Sebastian said...

"In my view, he's crossed the line already"

Right. If he can't make ICE do its actual job, what's the point of having Trump?

Jim at said...

Hahaha, said by Drago the guy who has peddled conspiracy theories for the past two years...

This was actually written by the person who spent two years screaming "Any day now!!! You don't know what Mueller knows!!!!"

There is no way one can reasonably deal with a person who refuses to recognize how stupid they sound when saying one thing one day and then the exact opposite then next.

It's sheer stupidity with an arrogance multiplier.

MeMySelf said...

Trump postponing the raids for two weeks due to the fact that Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan is suspected of leaking the date, time, cities and targets of the raids to the press, doesn't bother me at all. Time to replan, retarget. And really who expected us to attack Iran for downing a drone? It seems Trump was more concerned that killing an estimated 150 people with a strike on the radar/missile site was over the top. It's his decision. Personally I'm more concerned with who leaking all of this to the press. That more than anything Trump has done is causing the US more issues with our foreign policy.

Bay Area Guy said...

I missed all these great comments above, cuz I've been vacating in exotic lands with the family.

So, here's my 2 small pedestrian observations:

Iran strike: Good for Trump. No need to go to war over a drone strike. Proportional response is the best. Americans are now highly skeptical of foreign interventions into the middle ease. Nonetheless, the Mullahs in Iran ought to be nervous, though.

Deportations: Wait and see. The Dem Party is for open borders, illegal voting and amnesty, and Trump doesn't have many political allies on this issue. He needs to keep building the wall, and keep up the pressure, though. On the whole, he's done a good job on trying to stop the massive influx of cheap labor, promoted and encouraged by Dems and Chamber of Commerce GOP types.

narciso said...

Well you have to contact the lower level ice officials and cut out the top staff

Michael K said...

narciso, I'm about to read this and it should be interesting.

narciso said...

And you cant alert the communities by Twitter either.

ga6 said...

Mr Farmer believes that the President cannot start wars? As a man who spent Aug through December 1964 floating about the Gulf of Tonkin and getting a view of the Saigon River I beg to differ.

Joe said...

Ann asks:
Question how many times he needs to do this pattern before you find it disrespectful and unserious.
Some possible answers:
1. Depends on who finds it disrespectable/unserious and why.
2. Enables one to see who reacts and how. And possibly formulate directly and indirectly related actions based on that.
3. Frustrates and possibly lulls opponents.
All that said, it can also frustrate supporters and the great middle.

narciso said...

I think as some of the commenters note, the problem was more nuanced then even the author considers. The decay in the Saddam regime was more than expected, including the rise of salafist in the middle ranks of the army and security service whi were Saddam's first over the peoplt

J. Farmer said...

@ga6:

Mr Farmer believes that the President cannot start wars? As a man who spent Aug through December 1964 floating about the Gulf of Tonkin and getting a view of the Saigon River I beg to differ.

I did not say that the cannot start wars; I said that the Constitution does not permit them the power to start wars. And even LBJ got the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution out of Congress. What would be the equivalent for Trump vis-à-vis Iran?

narciso said...

Yes and that doesn't speak well of the great Fulbright, does it, supposedly Biden had a fan in the 2001 aumf yikes

John henry said...

Closing in on 400 comments and nobody including me has noticed the obvious.

So Nervous Nancy has 2 weeks to come up with some solutions. Let's say she does.

Then what? What happens to the folks here under judicial deportation orders?

Has PDJT said he will not remove them? What would be pelosi's justification for letting them stay?

PDJT has not promised not to remove them, just not for 2 weeks.

John Henry

J. Farmer said...

@John Henry:

Closing in on 400 comments and nobody including me has noticed the obvious.

At the risk of sounding self-congratulatory, I've made this point several times in this thread.

Francisco D said...

I'm just glad J. Farmer has shown up, so that all the Althouse commentators have someone to talk to. He's like Miss Loneyhearts for Conservatives.
Now, now. Don't let the green-eyed monster rear its ugly head. Hug and kisses.


Although the back-and-forth arguments are annoying, it is a whole lot better than a nonsensical thread consumed with Ritmo's ravings, Inga's ignorance and Chuckles' obsessions.

Carry on, boys.

John henry said...

Usually like your recommendations Michael k.

Just downloaded the Kindle sample.

John Henry

John henry said...

J farmer,

Apologies. I missed them

John Henry

narciso said...

Yes this dime store serial where trump is always in trouble is tiring, see the tariff stick against Mexico, see prices of tariffs items from China go down.

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

"Trump is disrespecting his chain of command"

Who died and made Trump Commander in Chief?

narciso said...

Exactly Reagan reacted to Qaddafi first over the gulf of Sirte in 1981, and then in 1986 re the Berlin bombing, he acted in Lebanon after the shatila massacre which was part of a long standing blood feud with the Palestinians, of course in that interval Iran had recruited members of force 17

pacwest said...

@Farmer
"And who is promulgating this "general consensus?"

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi. Iran has begun installing a chain of 20 IR-6 centrifuges at its underground Natanz enrichment facility. The IR-6 can enrich 10 times faster than an IR-1. There are estimates within the watchdog agency that Iran is over the current limits of centrifuges.

Iran can argue that they are still in compliance due to the poor wording of many of JCPOA's provisions, but they weren't supposed to be this far along until 8-12 years after implementation.

I get that you are defending what you think was the "best deal possible at the time", but your failure to acknowledge the way Iran is pushing the envelope, your dismissal of Iran's current actions throughout the ME, and the loopholes in the JCPOA language mystifies me.

I'd agree with you if you are saying Trump shouldn't have cancelled the deal, but used it as a basis for further negotiations using the same tactics he is presently using. But I don't see you saying that.

chuck said...

I think it is still far too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the Iraq war, maybe in another 50 years someone will be competent to do that, but even then it will probably depend on the ideology of the historian. As Clausewitz should have said, "History is the continuation of politics by other means." And as always in history, we can't run experiments to test different approaches.

J. Farmer said...

@pacwest:

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi. Iran has begun installing a chain of 20 IR-6 centrifuges at its underground Natanz enrichment facility. The IR-6 can enrich 10 times faster than an IR-1. There are estimates within the watchdog agency that Iran is over the current limits of centrifuges.

Iran can argue that they are still in compliance due to the poor wording of many of JCPOA's provisions, but they weren't supposed to be this far along until 8-12 years after implementation.


"The agreement requires Iran to begin phasing out its first-generation IR-1 centrifuges "in ten years". During that time, Iran is allowed to continue to conduct enrichment R&D "in a manner that does not accumulate enriched uranium". Annex I of the JCPOA limits Iran's enrichment centrifuge R&D work to the IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8 designs only. For the IR-8, only single machines can be tested for the first eight and a half years after the implementation of the agreement, after which testing of cascades of up to 30 machines may begin."

-Pres. Rouhani orders installation of 20 IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz site, World Nuclear News

C.2. Activities Related to Enrichment and Fuel
10. At the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz, there have been no more than 5060 IR-1 centrifuges installed in 30 cascades, which remain in the configurations in the operating units at the time the JCPOA was agreed (para. 27). Iran has withdrawn 52 IR-1 centrifuges from those held in storage for the replacement of damaged or failed IR-1 centrifuges installed at FEP (para. 29.1).

11. Iran has continued the enrichment of UF6 at FEP. Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235 (para. 28).

...

14. At the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), no more than 1044 IR-1 centrifuges have been maintained in one wing (Unit 2) of the facility (para. 46). On 29 May 2019, the Agency verified that 1020 IR-1 centrifuges were installed in six cascades. On the same date, the Agency also verified that ten IR-1 centrifuges were installed in a layout of 16 IR-1 centrifuge positions and one IR-1 centrifuge was installed in a single position, for the purpose of conducting “initial research and R&D activities related to stable isotope
production”. Throughout the reporting period, Iran has not conducted any uranium enrichment or related research and development (R&D) activities, and there has not been any nuclear material at the plant (para. 45)."

-Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), 31 May 2019

Crazy World said...

I’m thinking Nancy will announce President Trump should be in jail again soon.

walter said...

John henry What would be pelosi's justification for letting them stay?
--
"spark of divinity'?

Original Mike said...

What I don't get is why we would agree to Iran doing any enrichment "R&D". We all know why they're doing it.

walter said...

I wonder if her grandkid who wanted to be brown went full Dolezal.

Marcus Bressler said...

I wanted DJT to move ahead with these deportations. The only reason to delay turns out to be the president's putting the spotlight back on the Do-Nothing Congress. So a short delay in which he can continue to hammer the Dems about their stance? Okay with me.

Who da fuck is the president disrespecting? And non-serious? How about the MSM covering this fake "Trump raped me in the dressing room" story for non-seriousness?

"Dutch courage?" RACIST! #Yawn

THEOLDMAN

narciso said...

Exactly, if one reads Halberstam and company, as the ur texts one would get ant entirely wrong impression of the Vietnam conflict, as compared to the archival evidence moyar was able to gather, the largest error was probably forcing diem to be deposed, that probably jinxed the whole project, there is also the matter of the strategy behind the war, that wasn't entirely clear, was it just to hold the highlands near the capitol, was it to go after the bases for the viet cong, in the south, and west through laos,

J. Farmer said...

@Original Mike:

What I don't get is why we would agree to Iran doing any enrichment "R&D". We all know why they're doing it.

It is not up to us to decide. Iran has the right to enrich fuel under the Nonproliferation Treaty. The JCPOA, in fact, limits what Iran is even permitted under the NPT.

Marcus Bressler said...

Drudge has posted that the Dems requested the delay.

THEOLDMAN

narciso said...

same with the nuclear negotiations re the Soviets, even as seasoned a figure as paul nitze, a charter member of the committee on the present danger, went soft, along with Richard burt, while Wolfowitz and perle held the line, that was when neocons understood that military action was a last step, but deployment of equipment was precluded, you get a better perspective from winik's on the brink, but if you read Talbott or scheer et al, you would think we'd be one minute to doomsday, rowny who along with pipes were not neocons pressed a hard bargain,

Original Mike said...

"It is not up to us to decide."

We're either going to stop Iran from building a bomb or we're not. Everything else is bullshit.

Earnest Prole said...

Shorter version: Since it's categorically impossible for a fourteen-dimensional chess player to make a predictable move, this entire line of inquiry is bogus.

J. Farmer said...

@Original Mike:

We're either going to stop Iran from building a bomb or we're not. Everything else is bullshit.

A verifiable agreement with intrusive inspections is a good way from stopping them from getting a bomb. Trying to sanction the regime into kowtowing to every US demand is not likely to work, especially when the majority of the world we would need to maintain such a sanctions regime disagrees with that strategy. \

J. Farmer said...

@Earnest Prole:

Shorter version: Since it's categorically impossible for a fourteen-dimensional chess player to make a predictable move, this entire line of inquiry is bogus.

You don't even really need to be able to play regular chess to get it. Either Trump called off the strike because he is genuinely torn on what to do (a very real possibilty) or this was just a tactical maneuver. If it's the latter, it's certainly not new. It would just be a rehash of the so called "madman theory" that was used under Nixon. It's also what was attempted earlier with North Korea. How's the denuclearization of the peninsula going?

narciso said...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-23/iran-to-take-new-steps-on-nuclear-program-in-two-weeks-isna?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

narciso said...

Translation, you keep paying the ransom, and we'll do whatever,

the Pakistanis assured us there were just refining fuel at kahuta as well, well it turns out they were doing more than that, so were the Libyans,

Rosalyn C. said...

Farmer keeps asking why would Pelosi negotiate if those slated for deportation will be deported anyway in two weeks? Because there are many more people in the deportation pipe line, especially since Trump has increased the number of judges to handle these asylum cases. Plus, people who thought that rules can be ignored because they are never enforced and will never be enforced are now probably screaming their heads off to their Democratic representatives. What are they going to do? Sanctuary cities/states will not protect the illegals.

Also RE: "Iran was in compliance" -- Seriously? What about the Iran agreement not including military sites? That's good enough? The agreement specified that certain military sites were off limits for inspection and other sites had to be given advanced notice for inspection. This was called air tight prevention and verification of their nuclear ambitions. Also idiotically, our agreement specified that the Iranian nuclear program be kept up to date be given all the latest advanced technology; that their stock of enriched uranium would be held for them in Russia; and that the terms about restricted enrichment would begin to be phased out in 6-10 years, among many other inducements. For agreeing to all that in order to give Obama a win, sanctions were eased and cash infused into their economy, bolstering the power of the mullahs. If we wanted to guarantee the strength and longevity of the Iranian theocracy that was the perfect agreement from their point of view. That's called agreeing with our enemies -- iow, supporting their aims and goals. Plus, as I said, Obama and his supporters cheered this as a big win for Obama. Otherwise we'd be at war and they'd be using nukes, or so we were warned. Now we are seeing Kerry coaching the Iranians behind the scenes on how to provoke Trump, in order to get rid of Trump. BTW, Obama was/is a big supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as well as the US.

I find those who insist on defending Iran's policies to be strange. Referring to the calls for the annihilation of Israel and wiping it off the map, death to the US, bragging about their missiles' capacity to hit Tel Aviv, etc. While they strenuously argue they have no intention to get a nuclear bomb, at the same time they threaten to continue uranium enrichment. For what purpose? Are they being wishy washy? Disrespectful? Not to be taken seriously? The US isn't perfect of course, but at least we don't have weekly rallies calling for any peoples' annihilation, we don't brutally attack women on the streets and jail them for improper head coverings, etc.

Dave Begley said...

Watch the mullahs miscalculate. Iran launches a bigger attack on US interests thinking Trump is all bluster. Trump then blows their nuke facilities to bits.

Obama, Kerry and Ben Rhodes hardest hit.

J. Farmer said...

@narciso:

Translation, you keep paying the ransom, and we'll do whatever,

By ransom, you mean allowing Iran to sell its oil in the international markets.

the Pakistanis assured us there were just refining fuel at kahuta as well, well it turns out they were doing more than that, so were the Libyans,

And how many foreign weapons inspectors were present at either the Pakistani or the Libyan weapons sites?

Original Mike said...

"A verifiable agreement with intrusive inspections is a good way from stopping them from getting a bomb."

"Verifiable" is, of course, hotly debated but accepting it for the sake of argument, allowing Iran to do the R&D necessary to build a bomb will result in an Iranian bomb. There is no other plausible outcome.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...

You don't even really need to be able to play regular chess to get it. Either Trump called off the strike because he is genuinely torn on what to do (a very real possibilty) or this was just a tactical maneuver. If it's the latter, it's certainly not new. It would just be a rehash of the so called "madman theory" that was used under Nixon. It's also what was attempted earlier with North Korea. How's the denuclearization of the peninsula going?


Terrible!

Trump is a total loser. The people that support him are just too dumb for J.Farmer.

If only we had J.Farmer, the smuggest of them all, as president. Unicorns would be everywhere.

Everything is easy for J.Farmer. He knows everything. He has never had any problems anywhere that took more than two days to solve. Everything he does always works immediately before it was even a problem.

And Iran is not funding any proxy wars because J.Farmer said so. Trump could solve immigration tomorrow because J.Farmer said so.

Smug.

narciso said...

well Bushehr is the only one close enough to naval bombardment, Isfahan, and arak, are in the interior, the program began in the shah's era with mannesman and framatome, providing the reactors, it was reactivated under Khamenei in the 90s, despite that non existent fatwa,

we still don't know what were the targets of that strike, the Sayyad 2c launchers, are relatively low maintenance platform so they wouldn't require much in the way of crew, a naval base like jask, where the boats that attacked the tankers came from, would have larger complements, and pretty heavily secured to attack, that was followed the flight plan of the drone, much like the cobra ball did off the Kamchatka peninsula in the 80s,

Achilles said...

As Farmer points out so aptly, the JPCOA was specifically written so Iran could get nuclear bombs.

For peaceful purposes of course.

Michael K said...

the largest error was probably forcing diem to be deposed, that probably jinxed the whole project,

Yes and that was one point of Max Boot's biography of Lansdale.

I'm still not sure it was winnable. Kennedy might have stuck with with Special Forces and lost professional soldiers until he decided it was not worth it. Johnson sent in a half million draftees and gave us the 60s and the destruction of the country that has followed.

J. Farmer said...

@RJ Chatt:

Farmer keeps asking why would Pelosi negotiate if those slated for deportation will be deported anyway in two weeks? Because there are many more people in the deportation pipe line, especially since Trump has increased the number of judges to handle these asylum cases. Plus, people who thought that rules can be ignored because they are never enforced and will never be enforced are now probably screaming their heads off to their Democratic representatives. What are they going to do? Sanctuary cities/states will not protect the illegals.

That is certainly a novel strategy. First, we are now hearing that the two week delay was a result of McAleenan's leak. Second, how is Trump's threat to deport people a bargaining chip unless he's prepared not to deport people in response to something Pelosi gives him. Do you think there is something Pelosi plans to offer that would be worth Trump not deporting people who have been to court and have final orders of deportation already?

The agreement specified that certain military sites were off limits for inspection and other sites had to be given advanced notice for inspection.

The agreement specified no such thing. The IAEA can request access to any site in Iran, and at most the regime could stonewall for a maximum of 24 days, which would not be enough time to hide the fact that nuclear material had been present. These and the issues you've brought up are addressed in the Arms Control Association's Understanding the JCPOA.

narciso said...

likely, they had sanctuaries in laos and Cambodia, under neutralist government, which allowed resupply, and as with north korea, ultimately it was the soviets and the Chinese, who were at the other end of that supply chain, unlike Malaya which could be staunched off,


https://www.armyrecognition.com/iran_iranian_army_missile_systems_vehicles_uk/sayyad-2_ground-to-air_defence_missile_system_technical_data_sheet_specifications_pictures_video.html

Narayanan said...

Immigration "law" is basically make work program for bureaucrats and "lawyers" designed by Democrats on a variation of Cloward-Piven strategy. Industry participants close to 100% Dem for job security.

Open immigration if made explicit policy will close down this lawyering.

Democrats want to pad voter rolls.

Lawyers want to pad client rolls.

"Law" proceeds administratively not judicially.

The aliens are hostage to politics which is weird for a Nation that champions Liberty and consists of population that is otherwise friendly and hospitable i.e. civilized.

J. Farmer said...

@Original Mike:

"Verifiable" is, of course, hotly debated but accepting it for the sake of argument, allowing Iran to do the R&D necessary to build a bomb will result in an Iranian bomb. There is no other plausible outcome.

The only alternative would be if Iran had no nuclear program whatsoever. How do you propose we achieve that goal?

narciso said...

Boot doesn't cite moyar, but does he incorporate some of the same reseatch the latter did,

as with Afghanistan, what really was the objective, as long as one has a nuclear armed neighbor state like Pakistan, that provided sanctuary and logistical support, to the Taliban and Al Queda, what would be the objective,

Original Mike said...

First, Farmer, we stop lying to ourselves. Iran is building a bomb

J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

If only we had J.Farmer, the smuggest of them all, as president. Unicorns would be everywhere.

Right, Achilles. We should always defer to presidents on everything because they're always right and us mere mortals don't know anything. Like in 2002 when Bush was all for the war in Iraq, and I was against it. Oh....wait. Yeah, I guess Farmer 1 Bush 0 in that match up. But I have a sickness. I'd rather be smug than wrong. Especially when that wrong means thousands of dead Americans and trillions of dollars of taxpayer money.

If I were president instead of Trump, there may not be unicorns, but Brent Taylor's seven children would not have been made fatherless last November in service of trying to protect a corrupt, backwards place like Kabul.

Narayanan said...

time to hide the fact that nuclear material had been present.

All matter is nuclear but not all radio-active

J. Farmer said...

@Original Mike:

First, Farmer, we stop lying to ourselves. Iran is building a bomb

"Building a bomb" is precisely what the JCPOA was designed to prevent. Iran cannot simultaneously comply with its obligations under the JCPOA and build a bomb. That's the point.

narciso said...

it's somewhat like the circumstance that led to rome's first real civil war, the socalled social war, related by Sallust who was a Caesar partisan, regarding the non roman peoples on the peninsula,

effinayright said...

J. Farmer said...
@ga6:

Mr Farmer believes that the President cannot start wars? As a man who spent Aug through December 1964 floating about the Gulf of Tonkin and getting a view of the Saigon River I beg to differ.

I did not say that the cannot start wars; I said that the Constitution does not permit them the power to start wars. And even LBJ got the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution out of Congress. What would be the equivalent for Trump vis-à-vis Iran?
****************

There's more than a nuance between "starting wars" and responding to armed attacks against the United States using our military power. The POTUS clearly has the power to do the latter.

Or do you disagree?

J. Farmer said...

How the Iran Deal Prevents a Covert Nuclear Weapons Program by Richard Nephew does a good job of addressing the concerns of covert production.

Seeing Red said...

Perhaps this original post was too hasty?

Via Insty:

...Leaks to multiple media outlets, first reported by the Washington Post, exposed plans for ICE raids on illegal aliens who have gone through the appeals process and ignored court orders for their deportation. As a result, following strong Democrat protests, implementation of the plan has been delayed by two weeks.

Anna Giaritelli of the Washington Examiner reports on the evidence leading to accusations against acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan as the orchestrator of a leak campaign intended to stymie the policy of the elected leader of the executive branch, a campaign that has succeeded for at least two weeks:....



Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/multiple_fingers_pointing_at_alleged_leaker_of_plans_for_ice_raids_today.html#ixzz5rhtBqAec
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

Drago said...

Fsrmer: "Building a bomb" is precisely what the JCPOA was designed to prevent."

The JCPOA was designed to provide cover for Iran so that they could complete development of a nuclear weapon and then, in the left's fever dreams, act as a counter to Israel and assume hegemonic control over the entire middle east.

Original Mike said...

I concede you are much more knowledgeable than I about this topic, Farmer, so maybe I'm mistaken. Under this agreement, is Iran enriching uranium?

bagoh20 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J. Farmer said...

@wholelottasplainin'

There's more than a nuance between "starting wars" and responding to armed attacks against the United States using our military power. The POTUS clearly has the power to do the latter.

Or do you disagree?


An unmanned drone which may or may not have been in Iranian airspace is a bit different than an "armed attack against the United States." The attack on Pearl Harbor did not give FDR the right to go to war with Japan.

Roughcoat said...

As Clausewitz should have said, "History is the continuation of politics by other means."

Good one. However ...

He might just as well have "policy" instead of "politics."

Nobody is quite sure which translation of Clausewitz is correct. Clausewitz is unclear on this point. The experts disagree; the controversy is ongoing and evergreen.

And it most certainly IS a distinction with a very big difference.

J. Farmer said...

@Original Mike:

I concede you are much more knowledgeable than I about this topic, Farmer, so maybe I'm mistaken. Under this agreement, is Iran enriching uranium?

Under 300kg of 3.67% enriched uranium

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

The JCPOA was designed to provide cover for Iran so that they could complete development of a nuclear weapon and then, in the left's fever dreams, act as a counter to Israel and assume hegemonic control over the entire middle east.

Now you're starting to sound like the people who say that Bush and Mossad cooked up 9/11 so they could take over the Middle East. If that's what you honestly believe, there is no point in trying to have a rational conversation with you on the topic.

Drago said...

Dave Begley: "Watch the mullahs miscalculate. Iran launches a bigger attack on US interests thinking Trump is all bluster. Trump then blows their nuke facilities to bits.
Obama, Kerry and Ben Rhodes hardest hit."

And since Trump has already shown a willingness to avoid physical conflict, to follow on agression by Iran could be met with a devastating response and Trump can now say Gee, everyone saw how I gave them a chance but the Iranians kept attacking.

Meanwhile, as reported broadly, Trump authorized the cyber attack against Iran last week and increased sanctions, which sounds apprpriate.

Drago said...

Farmer: "Now you're starting to sound like the people who say that Bush and Mossad cooked up 9/11 so they could take over the Middle East."

Uh huh. Run with that one.

While you are at it, explain the $1.8 Billion in untraceable paper currency transferred to Iran.

Sheridan said...

J. Farmer - the intriguing piece of the JCPOA effort, at least to me, is at the individual inspector level - the boots on the ground in Iran. According to the Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action)there are approximately 3000 calendar days of IAEA inspection performed per year. That would average slightly less than 10 people, full-time, per year. For arguments sake, let's say that inspectors rotate in/out about 4 times per year. That means that about 30 people per year on average are inspecting Iran for treaty violations. Is that even enough? How were those inspectors vetted? Who vetted them, the UN? Are all pure as the driven snow? No chance for any of them to be even slightly compromised such that they occasionally "look the other way"? I can't even trust a US-based reporter to accurately tell me the year/month/day in a nightly broadcast. Why should we trust even one of those inspectors? Send in a battalion of American inspectors, all at once with total control over an Iranian facility for a month or more with secure lines of communication in and out and then I might believe that the Iranians are following the rules (for at least some of the time). Otherwise, no. What, you think human nature has changed dramatically in Iran? If positions were reversed, you think the US wouldn't try and game the system to its advantage?

Original Mike said...

And they are allowed to improve their enrichment techniques? Why are they enriching uranium?

Roughcoat said...

The attack on Pearl Harbor did not give FDR the right to go to war with Japan.

FDR did use his constitutional authority to place U.S. forces in the Pacific on a war footing prior to the Japanese strike. E.g, the task force with carrier Saratoga (Halsey commanding) that delivered VMF-211 to Wake Island was authorized to shoot/sink on sight any Japanese warships it encountered.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

While you are at it, explain the $1.8 Billion in untraceable paper currency transferred to Iran.

That was the settlement of a claim that had been brought before the US-Iran Claims Tribunal in The Hague. Just for comparison, during Ahmadinejad's presidency, Iran received about $700 billion in oil-export revenues. But one-third of one percent of that will make them a regional hegemon?

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