Althouse: "Last year 2.3 million tourists visited Iceland, compared with just 600,000 eight years ago. The 20% annual uptick in visitors..."

May 20, 2019

"Last year 2.3 million tourists visited Iceland, compared with just 600,000 eight years ago. The 20% annual uptick in visitors..."

"... has been out of proportion with infrastructure that is needed to protect Iceland's volcanic landscape, where soil forms slowly and erodes quickly. Environment Minister Gudmundur Ingi Gudbrandsson said it is 'a bit too simplistic to blame the entire situation on Justin Bieber' but urged famous, influential visitors to consider the consequences of their actions. 'Rash behavior by one famous person can dramatically impact an entire area if the mass follows'.... In the viral video — watched over 440 million times on YouTube since 2015 — Bieber stomped on mossy vegetation, dangled his feet over a cliff and bathed in the freezing river underneath the sheer walls of the canyon. 'In Justin Bieber's defense, the canyon did not, at the time he visited, have rope fences and designated paths to show what was allowed and what not,' Gudbrandsson said.... The latest season of the popular HBO drama "Game of Thrones" features scenes filmed at the canyon.... Inga Palsdottir, director of the national tourism agency Visit Iceland, said a single film shot or a viral photograph has often put overlooked places on the map. The most extreme example, she said, is the Douglas DC-3 U.S. Navy plane that crashed on the black sand beach at Sólheimasandur in 1973. The seven Americans on board all survived but the plane wreck was never removed. 'Then someone decided to dance on it and now it's one of the most popular places in the country,' said Palsdottir."

From "Once-Pristine Canyon in Iceland Closed After Bieber Video" (Bloomberg).

100 comments:

Bay Area Guy said...: On purely aesthetic grounds, who do you think is the hotter Icelandic female, Ingi Gudbrandsson or Inga Palsdottir?; 5/20/19, 11:16 AM
Fernandinande said...: The Douglas DC-3 U.S. Navy plane that crashed on the black sand beach at Sólheimasandur doesn't look popular at all. Not even a taco bowl stand.; 5/20/19, 11:18 AM
stevew said...: I'm not saying it was Bieber's fault... but it was Bieber's fault.

Close friends (my son-in-law's parents) recently visited Iceland. Looking at some of their photos I was struck by the large number of people in and about the places they visited. Most of their trip was spent visiting outdoor places like the one Bieber documented. Also, hot spring bathing - with lots of other folks. Looks like a dramatic and relatively desolate place. It's an inexpensive place to visit. Very easily gotten to from New England.; 5/20/19, 11:18 AM
traditionalguy said...: It's probably those damn Cruise ships docking and releasing 5,000 passengers each. Being near an ocean with a gulf Stream makes the weather coastal tropical. And the have mountains too.; 5/20/19, 11:20 AM
Birches said...: That article annoys me. Bieber shot a music video there, not a snap chat on vacation. It's not like the government in Iceland was unaware he was there, right? Blame whoever allowed the filming to happen because they didn't realize the affect.; 5/20/19, 11:20 AM
bleh said...: Watched the video to see the canyon -- meh. I don't know, it doesn't appeal to me very much.; 5/20/19, 11:23 AM
Henry said...: Greenland needs tourism. Where's Justin Bieber?; 5/20/19, 11:25 AM
Bay Area Guy said...: In the 80's, Reagan outhustled Gorbachev at Reyjavick, Iceland , which set the stage for the Soviet implosion.

I reckon that would be sufficient grounds to visit Iceland.; 5/20/19, 11:27 AM
Henry said...: Your Adventure is Waiting -- Official Icelandair commercial.; 5/20/19, 11:29 AM
traditionalguy said...: The WWII Warbirds are making hops over to Europe from the USA to celebrate D-Day. The have to stop and re-fuel in Nova scotia, Greenland, Iceland and Ireland.

As always, we will probably miss the June 4, 1942 anniversary coming up, that is the 77th anniversary of Midway. That was the day Lt. Commander Wade McCluskey turned his 36 low on fuel, SBD2 Dive bombers of Bombing Squadron 6 from the USS Enterprise to the north and thus created the most decisive 10 minutes in the history of naval warfare. The Japanese were winning WWII at 10:20AM and were losing it at 10:30AM.; 5/20/19, 11:43 AM
gspencer said...: "Iceland's volcanic landscape, where soil forms slowly and erodes quickly"

Another version,

"public stock markets, where value forms slowly and erodes quickly"; 5/20/19, 11:46 AM
natatomic said...: Okay, maybe the Bieber video made that area more popular. I can’t deny the correlation.
However, I work at Walt Disney World and I am an avid theme park go-er (I’ve been to over 75 theme/amusement parks), and what I’ve noticed is that EVERYWHERE is seeing an increase in attendance. No matter the cost, no matter the obscurity...people are traveling more and they aren’t always necessarily going to JUST the traditional Disney, NYC, Paris, [insert typical tourist trap here]. I grew up near Dollywood and spent many a summer there, but nowadays you couldn’t pay me money to visit during the summer with their Disney-like hours-long waits. Any place that’s considered a vacation is near hell-like if it’s during a school break. Many of my co-workers have noticed this trend too, and I don’t know exactly what causing even the most obscure of destinations to suddenly be jam-packed, but it definitely seems like tourism is up everywhere.; 5/20/19, 11:46 AM
gilbar said...: Bay Area Guy said...
On purely aesthetic grounds, who do you think is the hotter Icelandic female, Ingi Gudbrandsson or Inga Palsdottir?

i see your Ing's, and raise you an Elin
Elin Jakobsdottir; 5/20/19, 11:47 AM
Rick.T. said...: Maybe it will get so popular nobody will go there any more.; 5/20/19, 11:53 AM
rehajm said...: Tourism is two parts Trump economy vs Obama economy and one part demographic and psychographic trends favoring experiences.; 5/20/19, 11:53 AM
Gabriel said...: From Douglas Adams, for Iceland's consideration:

"The fabulously beautiful planet Bethselamin is now so worried about the cumulative erosion by ten billion visiting tourists a year that any net imbalance between the amount you eat and the amount you excrete while on the planet is surgically removed from your body weight when you leave: so every time you go to the lavatory there it is vitally important to get a receipt."; 5/20/19, 11:54 AM
Xmas said...: The one thing I was sad about when I played Eve Online was never going to Iceland for the Fanfest.

My character's name is on the monument though.; 5/20/19, 11:59 AM
Andrew said...: I hope someday to visit Iceland, mainly to see as many of the waterfalls as I can.

Look at these, for example:
https://yourshot.nationalgeographic.com/photos/?keywords=iceland%20waterfall; 5/20/19, 12:01 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Bay Area Guy
Also Heida Reed. She's gorgeous.; 5/20/19, 12:05 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: A neighbor, who lost his wife to cancer, traveled there last fall. He went with a small tour group and there were only 6 other people with him. He said the waterfalls were amazing, but he tired of them after a while.
Iceland is the buzz and has been so for a few years. That Bieber kicked it over the edge is not surprise. btw- why is he a thing? I guess I'm to old for that kiddie pool pop.; 5/20/19, 12:08 PM
Jaq said...: I recently went to Bruges in Belgium because it looked so great in a movie. Well I never figured on the crowds, the tour boats with amplified guides in the canals, and the rest. At first in Europe I was very respectful of people posing for pictures, but after a while I just got sick of the whole scene, cloying Instagram cuties posing for selfies everywhere, I just wanted to vomit when I saw them, and I just marched on when people were taking pictures, trying to get that shot with no people, of course. Wait a little longer suckers!; 5/20/19, 12:14 PM
madAsHell said...: We visited Iceland in February, and the weather was like February in Seattle. I recommend spring or fall. The island is covered with what appear to be bike trails, but no one was using them in February.

Booze is expensive, and the liquor store is only open from 10:00 to 17:00 hours. Of course, the tour bus returns at 17:30.

They set their clocks to London time.

Iceland Air runs flights from several US cities. Reykjavik makes a nice lay-over on your way to Europe.; 5/20/19, 12:15 PM
Jaq said...: Do you want to visit a beautiful little town where nobody goes where there is a huge waterfall right at the end of a delightful old Main Street? Go to Montour Falls, NY.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montour_Falls,_New_York#/media/File:Montour_Falls.jpg

Look at all the parking!; 5/20/19, 12:19 PM
Phil 314 said...: Is there a certain historical irony that a country settled by Vikings, who were famed for invading and wreaking havoc, is complaining about the invaders wreaking havoc?; 5/20/19, 12:22 PM
Jaq said...: That plane is probably a C-47.; 5/20/19, 12:23 PM
Fernandinande said...: That plane is probably a C-47.

That would explain why nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded.; 5/20/19, 12:26 PM
effinayright said...: Visited Iceland last summer. Ferociously expensive: a small pizza and two beers set me and my wife back fifty bucks. Luckily we found a very nice B&B in the center of Reykjavik to offset the general expensiveness: a decent hotel will set you back $300+/night. We paid $120/night.

Very beautiful scenery, reminiscent of Maui's volcanic ridges---except for the cold, the abundance of glaciers, and general absence of trees and wildlife. And being just south of the Arctic Circle it never gets dark during the summer.

Lots and lots of fellow tourists from everywhere. Way too many Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Indians to credit the Trump economy for their surge. To me, they are more indicative of Asian prosperity.

p.s. someone mentioned yesterday how difficult Gaelic is compared to English.

Just TRY to pronounce Icelandic words like Theistareykjarbunga, Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn, or Eyjafjallajökull!; 5/20/19, 12:26 PM
LA_Bob said...: "The most extreme example, she said, is the Douglas DC-3 U.S. Navy plane that crashed on the black sand beach at Sólheimasandur in 1973. The seven Americans on board all survived but the plane wreck was never removed."

Now, what on earth is the excuse for that?; 5/20/19, 12:29 PM
Jaq said...: That’s why I should always google any assertion of fact I make. The military versions were C-47s during the war.; 5/20/19, 12:37 PM
Drago said...: TradGuy: "The Japanese were winning WWII at 10:20AM and were losing it at 10:30AM."

With all due respect, Japan began to lose their piece of WW2 late in the morning on Dec 7, 1941.

Japan was never, at any point, in a position of sufficient power to actually defeat the United States.

Exactly how were the Japanese going to invade and conquer the US?

Were they going to invade the west coast and work their way inland to take over our industrial and manufacturing centers?

Nope. If they were lucky enough to actually come ashore on the west coast they wouldnt have made it past Long Beach or downtown San Diego.

Japans ONLY hope was the Germans developing the Bomb and/or the Americans being as "soft" as Tojo dreamed they were and the Americans just sort of giving up.

Unfortunately for Tojo and crew, in those days we had very few LLR Chucks milling about.; 5/20/19, 12:45 PM
iqvoice said...: I was in Iceland in 2016. The tourist infrastructure was already inadequate, but that in no way excused the foolish behavior I witnessed from some tourists, which included climbing on fragile rock structures, not being prepared for the extreme weather, etc. For the foolish traveler, Iceland is a good place to get yourself killed.; 5/20/19, 12:59 PM
Rory said...: It seems pretty clear that Iceland should be doing more to promote its indoor, urban attractions:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_Phallological_Museum; 5/20/19, 1:02 PM
stlcdr said...: Don't they have borders? Can't they just build a wall or something to stop people getting in?; 5/20/19, 1:13 PM
rehajm said...: Way too many Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Indians to credit the Trump economy for their surge

One, that commenter was observing the increase in tourism in other places besides Iceland and two, despite best efforts of MSM, the US economy is still a global phenomenon.; 5/20/19, 1:13 PM
The Minnow Wrangler said...: I visited Iceland for a week in 1979 when my Dad was stationed at Keflavik. We drove around the whole country and most of it at that time was a single lane dirt road.

We stayed at a very rustic lodge where you could rent Icelandic ponies. Fortunately I had ridden horses before. My pony had apparently not been allowed to run for quite a while and took advantage of this opportunity to stretch his legs. I was not thrown off but my arms got pretty tired pulling on the reins trying to slow him down. I think my pony ran about five miles before he got tired and turned around to go back to the stable.

Iceland is very beautiful although it is cold even in the summer. I enjoyed all of the geothermal features there and I bought a couple of blankets that are extremely heavy and warm (a wise investment for a teenager).

I'm pretty sure no matter how many tourists go to Reykyavik they will not be able to spoil the Icelandic countryside.; 5/20/19, 1:28 PM
Oh Yea said...: Blogger Nobody said...
That’s why I should always google any assertion of fact I make. The military versions were C-47s during the war.

C-47’s were Air Force. Navy designated theirs R4D’s.; 5/20/19, 1:29 PM
mesquito said...: I went to Iceland last summer, mainly because I got round trip airfare from Dallas for $350. I had read that the tourists were overwhelming the place so avoided the hotspots, mostly. The ones I visited - Gulfoss waterfalll and the bay full of icebergs - were total zoos. Other than that, it was wide open and pretty empty. I got a good deal on a Jeep rental I was able to drive across the middle of the country.; 5/20/19, 2:00 PM
traditionalguy said...: Drago: You are right that we could have stopped the Japanese 18 months later at a line somewhere between California and Texas. So they never really had a chance. But we did stop them cold years earlier at Midway by stopping them from achieving a total Naval Aviation superiority which meant a total Naval Superiority in the Pacific, the loss of Australia and New Zealand, and no way to land on Guadalcanal.; 5/20/19, 2:02 PM
Quaestor said...: Is there a certain historical irony that a country settled by Vikings, who were famed for invading and wreaking havoc, is complaining about the invaders wreaking havoc?

Bum rap.

Not all the Norse people were Vikings, just as not all Americans are masters of the universe working for Morgan Stanley. Of all the Norse homelands Iceland was the least likely birthplace of a genuine Viking. Through the discovery of hoards containing Anglo-Saxon and Frankish coins, archeology has shown that most actual Vikings came from what is today Denmark. The English tended to call all Norse invaders Danes, and it seems they were more correct than popular culture typically admits.

Most of Iceland's settlers were Norwegians fleeing the violence and oppression of Olaf Tryggvasson, who used Viking methods to evangelize the North.; 5/20/19, 2:02 PM
LYNNDH said...: We have flown on Icelandair several times. They are always pushing to visit Iceland, stay for several days then continue your journey. So they are complaining about too many visitors. Can't please some people.; 5/20/19, 2:18 PM
Rick67 said...: Iceland has a population of about 300,000.

I cannot imagine the United States receiving 2.1 billion tourists per year.; 5/20/19, 2:18 PM
Lucien said...: It's because Icelandic chicks are so good at Crossfit.; 5/20/19, 2:23 PM
jimbino said...: The Bieber story is a great illustration of the advantages of privatization. Only the owner has a true interest in maintaining valuable property, and the more valuable the property, the more reason to keep the gummint the hell out. In the interests of its citizens, Iceland would do well to sell off all these wild lands and tourist attractions. Same as the USSA.

Consider Disney World vs. Yellowstone, the former private and the latter principally owned and maintained by the Amerikan citizen and taxpayer.

Disney World: open to and frequented by world citizens without discrimination, not even age discrimination in the form of senior discounts. Kept in immaculate condition. Never destroyed by a forest fire.

Yellowstone: paid for by all Amerikans, but not frequented by Black, Brown or Native Amerikans. Discriminates against visitors under 60 years old, giving Amerikan Senior Pass holders not only free admission but free admission to all in their car, as well as discounted fees. Our national parks, forests and BLM lands are not only super-expensive but run-down and getting worse. Regularly destroyed by forest fires.; 5/20/19, 2:29 PM
Quaestor said...: But we did stop them cold years earlier at Midway by stopping them from achieving a total Naval Aviation superiority which meant a total Naval Superiority in the Pacific...

I doubt that. The IJN did achieve something like "total Navel Superiority in the Pacific" eighteen weeks later at the Battle of the Santa Cruz Islands when the United States Navy was reduced to one fleet carrier on active station in the Pacific. The sole survivor was USS Enterprise, and she was heavily damaged. It was "Enterprise vs Japan" until 31 December 1942 when USS Essex )CV-9) joined the fleet, a 36,000-ton behemoth with over 100 warplanes aboard, to be followed by 23 additional carriers of her class — more ships than Japan ever build as aircraft carriers of any description.

Midway was an important battle. It shortened the war by at least a year. Besides the destruction of four of Japan's commissioned fleet carriers, its greatest effect was to ensure that Pearl Harbor would continue as the main base of CinCPAC.; 5/20/19, 2:35 PM
Quaestor said...: Typo alert: total navel superiority.

In case anyone wonders, my comment was about military history and not the results of the World Belly Dance Festival.; 5/20/19, 2:43 PM
rcocean said...: Iceland looks like a nice place to live, but I wouldn't want to visit there. Just another cold, mountainous country, with some waterfalls. Why not just go to Alaska?

The one thing I liked about Iceland is they told the IMF and Banksters to go to hell after the financial crisis (aka ripoff) of 2008. The Irish of course, bailed about their banks. As you would expect.; 5/20/19, 2:59 PM
rcocean said...: Iceland was more or less occupied by the US troops from August 1941 to May 1945. It was considered a "Hardship post". The women may be lovely, but after a while one waterfall looks like another.; 5/20/19, 3:01 PM
Quaestor said...: I really hate iPad.; 5/20/19, 3:02 PM
wildswan said...: Usually in any tourist spot, if you are only a couple of hundred yards from the iconic scene, (especially from the parking lot and picnic area for said scene) you are alone and can enjoy the scenery. And places like Gettysburg and the Lincoln Memorial are fine early in the morning. If it's all about getting a shot of you and the icon, really, that can be taken care of in twenty seconds after which you go elsewhere for wilderness or cultural appropriation. No one will know.; 5/20/19, 3:03 PM
gilbar said...: Rick67 said...
Iceland has a population of about 300,000.
I cannot imagine the United States receiving 2.1 billion tourists per year.

Wyoming is now Super Crowded with Nearly 600,000 residents
About 3 Million people visit Yellowstone park (in wyoming) every summer

A typical section of I-80 in Wyoming has a traffic count of about 13,000 vehicles per day,
13,000 v/d * 365d/y == 4,745,000 vehicles per year
(oh! and not many of them are going to yellowstone (those folk use i-90))
http://www.dot.state.wy.us/home/planning_projects/studies_plans/I-80_tolling_study.html; 5/20/19, 3:33 PM
gilbar said...: Oh! Wikepedia says 4,115,000 people visited Yellowstone (in 2018)

yellowstone 2,219,791 acres 8,983.18 km2
iceland 25,396,480 acres 102,775 km2
So, iceland is about 10 times bigger than yellowstone?

wyoming is about 253,600 km2 so, twice as big as iceland, with 4 times more visitors?; 5/20/19, 3:42 PM
gilbar said...: Quaestor talked about ...
total navel superiority; and
The World Belly Dance Festival.

Is that what they'd use Navel Jelly for?; 5/20/19, 3:47 PM
Darkisland said...: If you want to dance on a DC3 you can come to another island, Puerto Rico. There are 6 of them in Naguabo.

containment.masterful.pays

Pretty well deteriorated, though and well overgrown.

John Henry; 5/20/19, 3:51 PM
Douglas2 said...: C-47’s were Air Force. Navy designated theirs R4D’s

This particular aircraft started its life as a United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) C-47A with construction number 12554 and tail number 42-92722. In February 1944 it was transferred to the US Navy. In November 1951 it had been converted to an R4D-8 ("Super DC3" spec with more powerful R-1820-80 engines, larger tail unit, new larger and more swept wings, etc). In September 1962 the R4D-8 aircraft were redesignated as type C-117D

So, although at the time it crashed it was a C117D, I don't think it would be incorrect to call it a Dakota, C47, R4D, or C117, as this particular airframe has at one time or other been officially nearly every variety of DC3, and how would you know which variety from what is left anyway?; 5/20/19, 3:56 PM
Fernandinande said...: Kentucky is about the same size as Iceland but with about 12X as many people.

- "From 2014 to 2016 alone, visits to Louisville increased by more than 1.7 million to 24.7 million." (about 10X the Iceland #).

- "In the years since we’ve been tracking the number of bourbon tourists visiting Kentucky, ... In 2018 1.63 million"; 5/20/19, 3:57 PM
Fernandinande said...: For the foolish traveler, Iceland is a good place to get yourself killed.

Yeah, but it costs too much.; 5/20/19, 4:00 PM
Darkisland said...: Trivia fact of the day

In May 1941, in violation of FDR's pretend Neutrality, US troops occupied Iceland.

This was to relieve about 25,000 British and Commonwealth troops who had invaded Iceland a year before. The troops we relieved went to fight the Germans in Africa. We also, as a neutral country, not at war with Germany, used Iceland to fly anti-submarine patrols. We found German subs for the Brits and we depth charged German subs from the air. We operated US destroyers in the area hunting German subs, under FDR's "sink on sight" orders.

And some people claim we didn't get into WWII until December 1941 when Germany declared war on us.

Ha!

John Henry; 5/20/19, 4:03 PM
Darkisland said...: I had forgotten the date of Roosevelt's original "sink on sight" order

9/11/41

Coincidence? I think not!

John Henry; 5/20/19, 4:14 PM
Jaq said...: So, although at the time it crashed it was a C117D, I don't think it would be incorrect to call it a Dakota, C47,

Ha! I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken. Actually, my dad served on a C47 which is why I even knew about the plane.; 5/20/19, 4:15 PM
mesquito said...: Before I went to Iceland I learned some of the ways I could die there.

Get swept away by a rogue wave.
Get scalded in a hot spring.
Get blown off a cliff.
Get washed over a waterfall.
Collide with a truck on a one-way bridge.
“ “ “ in a one-way tunnel.
Exposure when your car breaks down in the highlands.
Car get swept away while fording a river.
Fall into a crevasse.; 5/20/19, 4:15 PM
effinayright said...: mesquito said...
I went to Iceland last summer, mainly because I got round trip airfare from Dallas for $350. I had read that the tourists were overwhelming the place so avoided the hotspots, mostly. The ones I visited - Gulfoss waterfalll and the bay full of icebergs - were total zoos. Other than that, it was wide open and pretty empty. I got a good deal on a Jeep rental I was able to drive across the middle of the country.
****************

That's good advice. My dentist planned a visit there, and I advised him to fly up to the North and rent a car. No crowds there.; 5/20/19, 4:20 PM
Jaq said...: I mentioned a week or two ago that Netflix documentary on the Anglo Dutch war, which was a battle for domination of the seas. Like WWII, that was a war of shipbuilding and manpower. Except the Dutch finally cried uncle, I guess, because they were only in it for the money that would accrue from controlling the trade routes, and at some point you write off the investment, and the Brits were in it for God, King, Empire, and glory.

Basically each side would send out ships and they would blast each other to bits, then build more ships. The Japanese could never win such a war against the United States without bombing our shipyards, at a minimum, which were out of reach. I suppose they could have sent battleships to pummel our shipyards, but we would have destroyed them with land based air power. I don’t see how the Japanese had a path to victory without a German victory over the United States, not just in Europe, which was unlikely in the extreme as well.; 5/20/19, 4:22 PM
gilbar said...: Oh ain't you glad that we live on an island,
You can choose your own way of being killed,
You can jump off a cliff and get drowned in the sea,
Or be dashed 'gainst the rocks and get split,
And it could happen to you (no it won't happen to me)
It could happen to you...; 5/20/19, 5:11 PM
WK said...: Flew through Iceland to Europe last summer on WOW airlines. They are now out of business. Flight was hours late and we missed our connection. They put us up in a hotel that was a converted Air Force barracks. Seems like it was a regular occurrence to have missed connections. They had the vouchers and busses to hotel down to a science. We ended up being overnight tourists for 12 hours. Not sure how many are counted that way.; 5/20/19, 5:24 PM
Gahrie said...: I don’t see how the Japanese had a path to victory without a German victory over the United States

The Japanese had the same plan as the Confederacy...several quick victories, then try to wear down the USA's will to fight. They knew they couldn't win, but they believed they could convince the USA to give up. They had the same amount of success.; 5/20/19, 5:31 PM
Big Mike said...: Don’t let them fool you. They may hate the tourists but they love those tourist dollars.; 5/20/19, 5:39 PM
madAsHell said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/20/19, 5:45 PM
gilbar said...: The Japanese had the same plan as the Confederacy...several quick victories, then try to wear down the USA's will to fight

I believe the trick is to make the war go More than 5 years without American victory.
After 5 years the American people get sick of war.
Look at all the wars America was in, where after 5 years; there was still no American Victory:
You won't find many.

Japan didn't want to invade America; they wanted to Invade the Dutch East Indies. If they could have held on until January 1947; you would have found American Enthusiasm evaporating, and 'sensible people would have wanted "Peace With Honor"; 5/20/19, 5:47 PM
Captain BillyBob said...: Unless you are into geology, volcanoes, northern lights, waterfalls and that kind of thing Iceland is pretty boring. The salmon is good if you like salmon. And the women are hot, if you are into hot women.
Just sayin.....; 5/20/19, 6:11 PM
Swede said...: An Icelandic volcano, with an unpronounceable name, erupted several years back, delaying flights in Europe and elsewhere, and kept me in Iraq for an extra 8 days.

Icelandic volcanoes, with unpronounceable names, can go fuck themselves.; 5/20/19, 6:33 PM
Jaq said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/20/19, 6:36 PM
mesquito said...: Eyjafjallajökull.; 5/20/19, 6:38 PM
Jaq said...: My understanding is that the best way to learn to pronounce words like that, or to learn German, for that matter, is to work your way forwards from the final syllable.; 5/20/19, 6:45 PM
Swede said...: Yeah, Iwillfuckyouintheskull, that was the one.; 5/20/19, 6:47 PM
PresbyPoet said...: My wife's father was a Marine. He was sent to Iceland, she has some souvenirs. He later lands on Guadalcanal in 42. He was a witness to history, but would NEVER talk about what they went through fighting on Guadalcanal.

Roosevelt got Japan to strike the first blow. The oil embargo was an act of war, Japan had two choices. Fight or leave China.

There is one very possible out of the box way they could have succeeded. Sail a long range task of all their Carriers. Don't attack America, sail it southeast around South America.

Imagine if in January 1942 60 Japanese ships, 8 Carriers, oilers and other support ships sail into Buenos Aries. Resupply, since Japan is not at war with anyone, sail north and blockade Great Britain. There is no way for the British to survive even one month with no supplies coming in.

The British fleet tries to attack. The British fleet lacks enough carriers to match the Japanese. It would be like what happened in the Indian Ocean in April 1942, or off Malaya where the two British Battleships were sunk in December 1941.

Japan gets the surrender of what they want,the Dutch East Indies. They now own the oil we were not letting them have, without any need to go to war with America.

With England out of the war, the Germans and Japanese attack the Soviets from both sides. Rommel slices through the middle east and takes Baku and hooks up at Stalingrad. Germany and Japan divide up Asia.

It was too much out of the box in 1941, but it could have happened. We are lucky it didn't. Yamamoto did us a strange favor.; 5/20/19, 6:57 PM
Joe said...: Probably 30 years ago, I watched a travel video about a neat, small town in Italy. Very recently I read an article that this town has turned into wall-to-wall tourism, and is horrible.

FWIW, the worse tourists I've encountered are German college students.; 5/20/19, 7:13 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: Iceland used to be the hottest tourism destination. What happened?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2019/04/13/iceland-tourist-destination-boom-decline/3379260002/

go to Norway instead; 5/20/19, 7:34 PM
rcocean said...: Why go to Iceland? I want some warm weather and plenty of trees. Greenland, here I come.

Damn were the Vikings the biggest trolls ever, or did we mis-translate everything?; 5/20/19, 7:38 PM
rcocean said...: "Imagine if in January 1942 60 Japanese ships, 8 Carriers, oilers and other support ships sail into Buenos Aries. Resupply, since Japan is not at war with anyone, sail north and blockade Great Britain. There is no way for the British to survive even one month with no supplies coming in."

Congratulations on "Thinking outside of the box"! What if the British tell the Argentinians NOT TO resupply the Japanese fleet? What if as the Japanese Fleet sails northward, some mysterious subs start torpedoing the Oilers? What if the British send *their* A/C carriers southward to meet the Japanese and tell them to avoid the warships - just attack the oilers? What then?; 5/20/19, 7:44 PM
rcocean said...: Glad to know Iceland is now a "tourist trap". Will avoid - and go to Hawaii.; 5/20/19, 7:45 PM
Fen said...: sail north and blockade Great Britain. There is no way for the British to survive even one month with no supplies coming in. The British fleet tries to attack. The British fleet lacks enough carriers to match the Japanese

I think your mental exercise will run into the same problem the Germans did:

"As the first American merchant vessel lost to Germany’s aggression during the Great War, the William P. Frye incident sparked the indignation of many in the United States. The German government’s apology and admission of the attack as a mistake did little to assuage Americans’ anger, which increased exponentially when German forces torpedoed and sank the British-owned ocean liner Lusitania on May 7, 1915, killing more than 1,000 people, including 128 Americans. The U.S., under President Woodrow Wilson, demanded reparations and an end to German attacks on all unarmed passenger and merchant ships. Despite Germany’s initial assurances to that end, the attacks continued.

In early February 1917, when Germany announced a return to unrestricted submarine warfare, the U.S. broke off diplomatic relations with the country. By the end of March, Germany had sunk several more passenger ships with Americans aboard and Wilson went before Congress to ask for a declaration of war on April 2, which was made four days later. The first American ships arrived in Europe within a week, marking a decisive end to U.S. neutrality."

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germans-sink-american-merchant-ship; 5/20/19, 7:54 PM
Fen said...: And worse, now the Japanese task force is on the other side of world, it's logistical train cut off by America. And in short order they run out of fuel and food and pull into British ports under a flag of surrender (or more likely, go down with their ships, per their culture); 5/20/19, 7:59 PM
Fen said...: For those interested in the Japan theater, here is a really good vid on the Battle of Midway from the Japanese perspective. It's 45 mins but feels like 15.; 5/20/19, 8:03 PM
Fen said...: It's a great example of how what we call "Mission Creep" can be so dangerous.

The goal was to draw out American carriers by attacking Midway. But they became more focused on sending a second strike to destroy Midway than on locating and destroying the carriers.; 5/20/19, 8:08 PM
gilbar said...: And in short order they run out of fuel and food and pull into British ports.
it's 1942; They could pull into French Ports, and refuel.

But, none of this is My scenario, so don't yell at me!
I'd say, step #1 is Do NOT FIRE ON FORT SUMTER (since for me, it's always 1861 :); 5/20/19, 8:11 PM
PresbyPoet said...: I have studied the carriers the British had in early 1942. They had 4: Illustrious, Formidable, Victorious, Indomitable. (You have to like the way Brits name their ships). They could carry around 200 planes. The 8 Japanese carriers around 400. The Japanese pilots at the start of the war were the best in the world. We were lucky so many of them went down with their ships at Midway. Also that they had so few to start.

I'm not saying it would be a sure thing for the Japanese, but better than waking the sleeping eagle. It would have required coordination with the German Navy, since all the U Boats might figure any carrier they saw was an enemy. U-81 had sunk the Ark Royal on November 14, 1941, so they did target carriers.

As a fan of alternate histories, I have never seen anyone run with this "obvious" story. The reason for the large number of ships is to have supplies with the task force. There is no way they can't get any supplies in Argentina. Who is going to argue with them? Brest and Bordeaux are owned by Germany, so supplies are no problem.

If Japan goes down this road, we don't enter the war when we do. We don't fight with the same passion. It is a very different world.; 5/20/19, 8:39 PM
Quaestor said...: Trivia fact of the day. In May 1941, in violation of FDR's pretend Neutrality, US troops occupied Iceland.

The secret to winning trivial contests is to get your trivial facts more than trivially correct.

The British did not request US forces until June 1941 and it was not until 7 July that the Icelandic parliament, the Althing, approved the US occupation and 8 July that USMC troops began to debark, completing the landing operation on 12 July. On 6 August 1941 two USN patrol squadrons began operating from Reykjavík with PBY and PBM flying boats.

The "shoot on sight" order was issued on 11 September several days after the Geer Incident, which involved an exchange of fire, torpedoes and depth charges, between U-652 and USS Geer, a Wickes-class destroyer. The fact of who shot first was disputed and unsettled to this day, but it was the possibly the first "neutrality violation" by American forces, depending on who fired first. By maritime law, neutrals may take defensive certain measures against submarines, which includes tracking them by SONAR (in Geer's case it was by hydrophone). The best-supported theory has U-652 firing the first shot. Geer was a "four-piper" that looked very similar to a Clemson-class destroyer then in Royal Navy service.

The first unquestionable neutrality violation occurred on 23 October when USS Ruben James, a Clemson-class warship, was torpedoed, perhaps accidentally, by U-552.

If John Henery is looking for a "neutrality violation" in May 1941, I would direct him to the hunt for KMS Bismarck. After the battle of the Denmark Strait, Bismarck disappeared into the North Atlantic, and it was feared in the RN Admiralty that the battleship would safely reach Brest before she could be located and attacked. However, on 23 May, a PBY piloted by Ensign Leonard B. Smith USN reported Bismarck 690 miles northwest of her destination, which allowed aircraft from HMS Ark Royal to torpedo the German warship, causing catastrophic damage to her steering gear.; 5/20/19, 8:42 PM
rcocean said...: "They had 4: Illustrious, Formidable, Victorious, Indomitable. (You have to like the way Brits name their ships). They could carry around 200 planes. The 8 Japanese carriers around 400."

Except, the British torpedoes planes had radar and had trained for night attacks on enemy carriers. That was the British plan in 1942, to sneak up on the Japanese carriers after their raid on Ceylon and launch a night attack. But somehow, it didn't work out and the British ran away.; 5/20/19, 8:58 PM
Quaestor said...: Imagine if in January 1942 60 Japanese ships, 8 Carriers, oilers, and other support ships sail into Buenos Aries.

There's Thinking Inside the Box, which is DUMB in the estimate of people not noted for being smart, and Thinking Outside the Box, which is SMART in the estimate of the same people. However, much Thinking Outside the Box really Thinking Inside Another Box, the one labelled Improbable to the Point of Absurdity.

"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.” – Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps), 1980

How long will the IJN based in Buenos Aries last on the fuel carried by all her oilers? Answer: About a week. An interesting characteristic of IJN warship design was their preference for fighting power over endurance. Using all of her commissioned auxiliaries could have just made it to Argentina with a bit of fuel oil to spare, refueling about eleven times on the way (Nagumo's task force refueled four times on the way to Pearl Harbor.) So, assuming the Argentines are agreeable to Japan's masterstroke against Britain, where do the Nips get the fuel to defeat the British? From America? 'cause that's were Argentina's oil mostly came from after 1939. What about the other supplies — the food, the ordnance, the spares — a fighting fleet must have a steady stream of? If Japan had the fuel to ship that stuff from Tokyo to Buenos Aries, 14,000 miles in a continuous stream without having first wrested control of the East Indes oil fields from Britain and Holland, then what's the point of the whole exercise?; 5/20/19, 9:22 PM
Fen said...: But, none of this is My scenario, so don't yell at me! I'd say, step #1 is Do NOT FIRE ON FORT SUMTER (since for me, it's always 1861 :)

Don't reinforce a military base in MY lands and I won't fire on you! :); 5/20/19, 9:48 PM
Fen said...: I don't think Murphy is going to sit idle while we hatch our alternative outcomes.

Watching the Midway Battle analysis, the Japanese carrier force sent out 7 scout planes to the east, fanning approx 1-6 on a clock face. However, the #4 aircraft had mechanical (or fueling?) problems and it's launch was delayed.

Like a bad movie plot, guess where the American carrier group was lurking? Yup, right where Scout #4 should have been to detect them. So we can forecast all we like, but Murphy WILL have his say :) Our carefully proposed strategies will be upended by a LCPL who took an extra smoke break when he should have been monitoring comms.; 5/20/19, 10:04 PM
Fen said...: Presby: It was too much out of the box in 1941, but it could have happened.

Hey, it can be a tough crowd in here, so in case we all start jumping your back, just want to say I DO find your idea interesting.

I just like to argue.; 5/20/19, 10:15 PM
Narayanan said...: Asking a fan of alternate histories,...

Is it possible to consider Atlas Shrugged as one?
America sitting out in isolation but adopting progressive, while rest of world succumbed to the socialist etc.; 5/20/19, 10:36 PM
Quaestor said...: It was too much out of the box in 1941, but it could have happened.

If the Japanese high command was even more stupid than history attests.

In 1941 Japan had a menu of choices:

1) Keep fighting in China until the Empire ran out of gas.
2) Strike South after attacking and sufficiently destroying American forces in the Pacific such that the United States offers an armistice.
3) Strike South without involving the US in the hope that they would remain neutral. (A possibility given the powerful America First movement headed by the popular Charles Lindbergh. Imagine FDR trying to persuade the American public into going to war against Japan on behalf of European colonialism. No blood for oil!)
4) Withdraw from China and thereby satisfy American demands, i.e. knuckle under, something the Japanese were temperamentally incapable of in 1941.
5) Engage in a quixotic expedition to the South Atlantic to force Argentina into co-belligerent status with the Axis, then fighting the Royal Navy without fuel so that the "undefended" East Indian oilfields would fall like ripe plums into Japanese hands. (I think it's obvious this menu item was "off".)

The Japs weren't dumb enough to opt for 1 or 5, but not smart enough to choose 3 or, better still, 4. But they were dumb enough to choose Number 2.; 5/20/19, 11:38 PM
Quaestor said...: I have a codename for PresbyPoet's Japanese South Atlantic enterprise: Operation Spanish Inquisition.; 5/20/19, 11:50 PM
Michael McNeil said...: Unless you are into geology, volcanoes, northern lights, waterfalls and that kind of thing Iceland is pretty boring.

Unless you're there closer to the equinox(es) or winter than to high summer, there aren't going to be any nothern lights — because there's no night.; 5/21/19, 12:35 AM
PresbyPoet said...: I apologize if I have been misunderstood. They stop to refuel in Argentina. Since they have not declared war on anyone at this point, they would have the right to be resupplied. This would be the first time anyone learns about their presence in the Atlantic.

Resupplied they head north to occupy the portion of the north Atlantic that at that point is out of range of land based aircraft. In that position, the British must fight from a position of weakness. There will be attrition of Japanese ships, planes and support vessels, but if the Japanese are able to arrive at the choke point without losing a lot of their force, Britain faces 3 choices.
1. Do nothing and die.
2. Offer peace terms to Germany and Japan,which leaves Stalin fighting alone, and Japan with Singapore,and the Dutch East Indies.
3. Send their battleships into combat against a fleet with more and better aircraft, with 4 carriers that have never worked as a single unit. Their carriers still using a biplane, the swordfish as a torpedo bomber. Fighters were not designed as naval planes, but were modifications of land based designs like the Seafire, a variation of the spitfire.

This option does not guarantee a Japanese victory, but has a much greater chance than rousing the sleeping eagle.; 5/21/19, 1:06 AM
Quaestor said...: I apologize if I have been misunderstood.

Your plan made more sense when it was misunderstood.; 5/21/19, 2:36 AM
Nichevo said...: PresbyPoet, yes, Japan could have possibly GOT their flotilla TO the North Atlantic. There they would be, off Ireland or Spain or where you like, and let's say that a genie then tops off their empty tanks and food (don't forget water! Sailors never do!) and any weapons or other supplies expended so they have one full combat load. Ships in optimal condition, like their mysteriously well-rested crews. Ready to engage in battle.

How long do they last? How long does one combat load last? Where do they get their next bombs, bullets, beans and bunker oil? What have they accomplished so far?; 5/21/19, 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: I was astonished by the increase in people/construction in Iceland between a couple of visits just four years apart.

Iceland is very expensive. Nice accommodations can be found that aren't too pricey, but eating and drinking, yowza. That said, Icelandair does have good deals to European cities and you take a few days layover if you like.

It is beautiful and worth seeing. (If you like that sort of thing, which I do.) But kinda glad I saw Iceland before Iceland was (too) cool.; 5/21/19, 6:54 AM