Althouse: "The Cubs Have a Smaller Chance of Winning Than Trump Does."

November 3, 2016

"The Cubs Have a Smaller Chance of Winning Than Trump Does."

(Via viator.)

28 comments:

rhhardin said...: Armstrong and Getty: Mayor world events since the Cubs last won the world series - NONE.; 11/3/16, 8:17 AM
madAsHell said...: I understand that ESPN owns 538.com.; 11/3/16, 8:21 AM
David Begley said...: What?! The great 538 was wrong?; 11/3/16, 8:21 AM
sinz52 said...: When I went to school, I learned that even 1% is a much larger number than zero.

The odds against drawing four aces in a poker hand is 1 in 54,000, or about 0.002%. Yet it happened to me once.

Given enough time for enough trials, improbable things not only may happen but will happen. The chance of the Cubs winning in any one year was low. But at least once in a whole century? That's another story.; 11/3/16, 8:23 AM
Henry said...: The Cubs had more depth.; 11/3/16, 8:26 AM
chickelit said...: In the future, political scientists will refer to the Democrat's '08 curse.; 11/3/16, 8:29 AM
Sebastian said...: But the Cubs could play the game.; 11/3/16, 8:31 AM
traditionalguy said...: I hear that the FBI changed the score board during that last commercial break.; 11/3/16, 8:37 AM
bagoh20 said...: The Cubs didn't cheat.; 11/3/16, 8:38 AM
dreams said...: "What?! The great 538 was wrong?"

I'm just glad his 2013 NCAA Basketball Championship prediction was correct. He had Louisville with a 23% chance to win it all which was the best percentage chance.; 11/3/16, 8:43 AM
Laslo Spatula said...: "What are the odds of me taking you home from this bar and making sweet, sweet love to you?"

"Zero percent."

"Okay, okay. But what if I were to give you ten thousand dollars to make this happen?"

"Still zero."

"Ah. You obviously don't know how statistics work. My research shows forty-seven percent of women will rank their answer as 'remotely possible', 'possible' or 'yes'."

"Still zero, buddy."

"What if I increased the offer to one-hundred thousand dollars?"

"Sure, I'll play your game: one percent."

"Hmmm. My statistics show an increase in women from forty-seven percent to seventy-one percent when asked this question. The figure is even higher among the age thirty-five-to-forty-five bracket."

"I'm NOT thirty-five."

"Yes, I understand: I have you in the below-twenty-five category. What if the offer was increased to one million dollars?"

"Two percent."

"You drive a hard bargain. Ninety-three percent of women take the million. What amount would you need to put you in the fifty-percent-and-above category?"

"You'd never have THAT much money."

"Sure, sure. But what if it was Matthew McConaughey AND five-million dollars?"

"Ha! OK: I'm above fifty-percent."

"Thank you for your participation."

"That's it? You're not even going to try to buy me a drink?"

"Buy you a drink? No, no: not when there's over a fifty-percent chance that you're a Whore..."

I am Laslo.; 11/3/16, 8:48 AM
Thuglawlibrarian said...: That is funny Laslo.; 11/3/16, 8:53 AM
Owen said...: Laslo! Made me laugh.; 11/3/16, 9:11 AM
Anthony said...: At least now they'll shut up about that stupid "curse".

It wasn't a curse, you guys just SUCKED for 108 years.; 11/3/16, 9:45 AM
rehajm said...: What?! The great 538 was wrong?

Oh, but they weren't 'wrong'. 538 offered a percentage probability of the Cubs winning and not winning and the less likely outcome occurred.

Certainly not 'wrong'.

Certainly not.; 11/3/16, 9:50 AM
Dude1394 said...: Ruh roh; 11/3/16, 9:52 AM
mikee said...: So NOW which pro sports team is the absolute worst, having had no championship for exactly how many years? Because I expect them to step up to their new status as most accursed team, and lament their own existence, like the Cubbies have done as long as I have lived.; 11/3/16, 9:56 AM
Greg Hlatky said...: Looks like the Arizona Cardinals, whose last championship (as the Chicago Cardinals) was in 1947.; 11/3/16, 10:22 AM
shiloh said...: Indeed, if the Cubs can win the World Series all things are possible.

Keep hope alive!; 11/3/16, 10:34 AM
Darcy said...: Haha. I hope to frolic in Nate Silver's tears next week. :); 11/3/16, 10:48 AM
mockturtle said...: Laslo! :-D; 11/3/16, 11:03 AM
mockturtle said...: Game seven was like Boy meet's girl, boy loses girl, boy gets girl and lives happily ever after'. Great game!

But Joe Buck is possibly the most annoying sportscaster since Howard Cosell.; 11/3/16, 11:07 AM
Rusty said...: Trump it is then.; 11/3/16, 11:11 AM
Howard said...: The Cubs winning is the first sign of the coming Apocalypse. For us anti-Trumpsters, this means that Dronald is fated to crush Hitlary.; 11/3/16, 11:11 AM
Howard said...: Hey, Rusty and I agree on something. It's the dawn of a new age.; 11/3/16, 11:12 AM
richardsson said...: The brightest math student in my high school class now runs an online version of a horse racing betting sheet---like the Daily Racing Form. Polling, survey research, and all that is mostly the mathematizing (neologism alert!) of wishful thing. If we could know the future, we'd already be there. But, if Gallup could survive its prediction that Dewey would be elected President in 1948, I'm sure 539 will survive this bad call on the Cubs. By the way, that Cubs game made a born again baseball fan of a friend of mine who used to hate baseball. The baseball owners who give thanks to Colin Kraperdick.; 11/3/16, 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey hey! There goes a Mexican over the fence-- a Trump-Link fence. Beauty, privacy, security!; 11/3/16, 2:03 PM
Clyde said...: Remedial reading for the folks at 538:

"It ain't over 'til it's over." -- Yogi Berra; 11/3/16, 9:05 PM