Follow the results here.
I'm seeing 5% results coming in from Maine and Kansas, with Cruz around 50% in both places and Trump lagging back.
Nothing yet from Kentucky, another caucus state.
Louisiana is the big state today, and it's a primary.
All 4 of these states have a closed procedure. No cross-over funny business, so it's a very important test of where GOP voters really are. It's maybe Ted's big day.
(Correction made: I thought Nebraska was also a GOP state today, but it's only for Democrats.)
ADDED: A big night for Bernie, winning Kansas and Nebraska. Trump got Kentucky, and Cruz didn't hit 50% in Maine, which would have given him all the delegates. Below 50%, the delegates were distributed proportionall.
AND: Trump seems to be winning big in Louisiana — the closed primary. It hasn't been called yet. I'm seeing 46.4% for Trump with 4% of the vote in. The polls had shown Trump at 43%, so he's overperforming.
MORE: With 80% in, Trump is now slightly underperforming in Louisiana.
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 212 of 212HT: The Trump voters are primed for an emotional appeal, and that very much includes the candidate's own heritage, so while a few of the people voting for Trump now would vote for Cruz, I agree that many would not and would simply not vote at all.
Lol. If that's why you think Cruz is unlikely to appeal to this demographic - they're just irrational and racist/ethnocentric, otherwise they'd see that he was an awesome representative of their interests - you're being willfully obtuse.
starting to see the problem with how they do the primaries. A lot of the earlier states allow for independents to vote for presidential candidates. This skews the primaries in the direction of Trump. Because most of them are early on, a lot of people might drop out before they reach the states where they'd naturally win.
The states coming up might actually favor Rubio. Except he might be dropping out soon.
I didn't say this group is irrational or racist. I said the emotional appeal includes heritage.
I think Rubio sees the writing on the wall, but he is not dropping out before the Mar 15 primaries. Plus I expect him to attack Trump with ferocity at the Mar 10 debate in Miami. Trump has been wounded by Rubio these last couple of weeks, but this may be the last chance to finish him off. And Rubio has mortally wounded his candidacy in the process. It was necessary to expose the Trump fraud to the voters.
There is a good chance Trump way underperforms on Mar 15 like he did yesterday, and falls behind in the delegate count. If that happens, Trump will indeed lose it spectacularly. I would enjoy that immensely.
One other thing, Trump was very low energy last night at his press conference. Maybe he missed his adolescent blood transfusion.
HT: I didn't say this group is irrational or racist. I said the emotional appeal includes heritage.
OK, sorry, I "over read" your remark.
As Anglelyne says, the Kansas caucus was secret ballot, as were Kentucky and Maine. These are not pure caucus states like, say, Iowa. I think of them as semi-cauci, a strange hybrid of caucus and primary. So people were free to vote their preference without "shame" or "social pressure."
This is different from, say, the student evaluations from Trump University, those glowing endorsements of the 'school' of which Trump brags. Depositions in the law suit reveal that instructors often filled out the evaluations themselves (gee, as an academic, I have to say that sounds eerily familiar--- bad professors sometimes try to find a way to pull that trick off, too) but usually they just made the students fill them out while the instructors stood over them and watched them write. Yeah, that's not any sort of pressure to say nice things about the course, now is it?
W said about Cruz, "I just don't like the guy." Multiply that sentiment by most of the voters in the Big Ten primaries and you'll understand why Cruz will lose.
There seems to be a misunderstanding about the difference between a primary election and a caucus. The fundamental one is that a primary is run by the state government while a caucus is run by the political party. The way the vote is run at a caucus depends on the caucus. I believe most or all of the Republican caucuses votes is by secret ballot. It's the Democrats who have the open vote caucuses, with Iowa being the well known example.
Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works
Contra even Prof. Althouse's last update (as I write this), which says Trump was "slightly underperforming," the final returns make crystal clear that due to the massive election-day swing toward Cruz, Trump massively underperformed his polling in Louisiana:
"Louisiana ... was a primary rather than a caucus. Trump won the state on strength of early voters. He lost among people who showed up on election day. The RealClearPolitics polling average showed him leading by 15.6 percentage points, but he only carried Louisiana by 3.6 points. Trump finished on the low end of his March polling, with a shade more than 41 percent of the vote, while Cruz overperformed even the high end at better than 37 percent."
Yesterday was a good day for Cruz and he did well in delegates! I'll throw out this piece of data to anyone still focused on the crossover of D's voting for Trump: Cruz and Trump each received 230,000 votes yesterday in closed races. Cruz is ascendant and Trump is fading, but registered Republicans are pulling the lever for Trump. Ignore that at your own peril.
That huge vote for Cruz was not a pro-Cruz vote - it was anti-Trump vote.
What concerns me, is that many people may not be aware of just what are the rules in their state. It does not make sense to vote everywhere for the same person to cast a vote against Trump. The states that voted March 5 and March 6 - and taht will vote on March 8, tomorrow, are not winner take all states. In many of them, there may be no reason to favor Cruz over Rubio if that is not who you want. On March 15 it would be the worst mistake for someone in Florida or Ohio to vote for Cruz. The only person who has a chance of catching Trump in Florida is Rubio and the only one who has a chance of catching Trump in Ohio is Kasich. It's not only who more eople initially favor - many votes in Florida, and I probably also in Ohio, are already in the bank.
Illinois and sometimes Missouri are sometimes also described as winner take all states - they are not.
Illinois awards only 12 delegates to the statewide winner - well 15, because 3 party officials are pledged to the statewide winner in every state except those that don't conduct any kind of preference vote - and 54 are elected individually by name (with the candidate they are pledged to listed next to their name) - 3 in each of Illinois' 18 congressional districts, including some with nearly 100% Democratic registration.
Missouri awards 9+3 = 12 to the statewide winner and 40 (5 per congressional district) to the winner in each of the 8 Congressional districts.
Michigan (March 8) is proportional (except for the 3 statewide officials) with a threshhold at 15%, and winner take all if somebody gets 50%. 14 statewide and 42 (3 per Congressional district) 3 per congressional district often means a 2-1 split.
Mississippi (March 8) has 25+3 = 28 at large and 3 x 4CDs = 12 by district. Proportioonal with winner take all trigger at 50%, if no one gets 50% in a Congressionnal district the delegates are split 2-1 betwene the winner and the second plave finisher.
Hawaii (March 8) has 10+3 statewide and 6 per Congressional district (Hawaii has 2) Hawaii always goes Democratic in the general election by a huge margin (Kerry got 54%in 2004) Poportional, no threshold.
Virgin Islands, March 10 has 9 delegated 6+3. Caucus, winner take all, territory wide.
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