May 18, 2015

"The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally."

Slavers Politico.

Yes, older people tend to be conservative, and older people tend to die.

And yet, everybody's always getting older, tending more toward conservatism, and, yes, eventually, dying. So the more conservative party is always dying, but it's also always receiving new entrants, as the once-young become old.

Now's a good time to roll out the old Churchill/not-really-Churchill quote: "If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart.  If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain."

43 comments:

damikesc said...

Politico? That site that Stephanopoulos went to in order to spin his problems sympathetically?

Yeah, they got their finger on the pulse of conservatism.

Paul said...

And the more liberal you are, the more likely you are to abort your babies. Hence the Roe Effect.

It's the liberals that are dying off, or should I say murdering themselves off.

Michael K said...

The country is getting older on average, partly due to the Roe Effect. This should have the opposite effect. Not even Obama can import new illegals fast enough.

gspencer said...

What's not often noticed, or at least not often stated, is that most people live their personal lives conservatively. Liberals & progressives included. What L & P want is for government, using OPM (Other People's Money), not their own, for their hare-brained ideas which they then want practiced on other people.

Brando said...

You have to account for changing political preferences as people age and their economic circumstances change, yes, but to some degree opinions formed earlier in life can stick with the voters as age and income change. For example, a lot of the Depression generation continued to revere FDR and favor government intervention in the economy even as they aged and voted in people like Ike and Nixon (in part because Ike and Nixon didn't dismantle the New Deal).

I'm not sure what to make of the Boomer generation--the group that booed Nixon but gave Reagan two landslides, then accepted Clinton.

Today's younger generation tends to lean left, but there's also an undercurrent of libertarianism among them--a sense that Social Security is unsustainable, and corrupt unions and government programs are not all they're cracked up to be. How they're going to vote in the 2020s and beyond is anyone's guess.

Anonymous said...

Did you check out the Presidential candidates for both parties?? Tell me again who is the party of old people????!!!!!

tim in vermont said...

I remember voting for Teddy Kennedy in the New York State primary because Jimmy Carter wasn't liberal enough. I remember almost crying in my beer in utter disbelief as I watched the election returns come in that saw Reagan win.

I am not a Reagan Democrat, I am a Carter Conservative. I can't believe the kinds of economic conditions I accepted as normal when I was a liberal. I am still the same social liberal I ever was, except I don't hate social conservatives. That makes me something like what used to be called a "n*&E^R lover," I guess.

Right now it seems to me like young people are being screwed by the heavy handed regulation that is bloating administration at colleges and universities and saddling students with huge debts, not to mention the zeitgeist that seems to make worthless degrees like "sociology" a good idea until it is time to get a job and pay off those loans.

It will be interesting to see how young people respond as those realities sink in and twitter sloganeering is seen as for its emptiness.

But nothing liberals and the left enjoy like imagining the death of their enemies.

Oh yeah, liberals don't reproduce as much, they kill their babies in the womb. That will add up too.

harrogate said...

"And the more liberal you are, the more likely you are to abort your babies."

Um, you're confusing political debate with life.

traditionalguy said...

Death is always the favorite subject of the Death Party. It goes beyond death Panels for the unsustainable old and a continuous surveillance for any still living political opponents.

Even the UN's new ally Pope Francis suddenly says God wants us ruled under a world government based on limiting population growth using a damned Big Lie saying human beings using co2 related energy should be stopped by stealing their money to pretend to control weather.

sparrow said...

Pope Francis has said nothing of the kind - you are greatly distorting him.

Hagar said...

Then how come the Republican politicians on the average are so much younger than the Democrats?

Phil 3:14 said...

I'd be curious to compare the numbers of older and presumably Republican votes who die each year vs. the number of new (i.e. turned 18) supposedly Democratic votes who don't vote.

Apathy vs. mortality

MadisonMan said...

Did you check out the Presidential candidates for both parties?? Tell me again who is the party of old people????!!!!!

I had the same thought, without the multiple punctuation marks however.

My 21-yo frequently says she'll see no Social Security. She is very socially liberal (Hey, she grew up in Madison) but also practical and suspicious of government.

Aussie Pundit said...

I was once a young left-wing radical who took heart from the fact that conservatives were old and dying off.

Now I am older and have become one of those who I thought were going to disappear.

Phil 3:14 said...

Here's the Economist's recent article on young people apathy.

Renee said...

I think people are nothing. GOP is dying out. But the Democrats are not who they use to be.

People are just nothing now. They don't believe in God OR the American dream either.

IF people are not marrying, working full time, or purchasing homes...

If they can not create their own stability, they will not sympathize with anything conservative.



Christopher B said...

Brando said...

I'm not sure what to make of the Boomer generation--the group that booed Nixon but gave Reagan two landslides, then accepted Clinton.


I'm thinking you have your generations somewhat mixed here.

The 'Regan Democrats' were the last of the Jacksonian (starting with Andrew and ending with Scoop) wing of the Democrat Party. The Boomers were barely reaching their 30s during the Regan years and still solidly in their liberal phase according to the quote. The 'Regan Democrats' were the start of split-ticket voting, voting Regan for president but pretty much a straight Democrat ticket down the rest of the ballot.

My theory with the Boomers is that they are doing something of the reverse. For lower ticket races they tend to vote for GOP candidates (as evidenced by the expansion of GOP controlled statehouses and governorships) but pulling the Democrat level in the Big Race is the anchor that lets them still claim to be not Republican.

Meade said...

"If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain."

And if you're not a radical centrist by the time you're 45, you have no chance of being Benjamin Franklin.

paminwi said...

Tim in Vermont says: "......saddling students with huge debts, ...."

Don't worry Tim, this won't go on for long. Liberals want higher education to be free or to have those of us paying taxes to absolve the little darlings of any debt they take on. Maybe if our high schools actually taught some personal finance in school the little darlings would understand how loans really work.

LibertarianSafetyGuy said...

If the GOP could be just a tad socially libertarian and reasonably responsible with money, they win a lot more elections.

Sebastian said...

"it's also always receiving new entrants"

Funny how that works.

Grand OLD Party must have a bright future.

"they win a lot more elections"

They have, recently.

Danno said...

For what its worth, the life expectancy tables were revised upwards recently, which has caused issues in pension liability computations and elsewhere.

I'm sure Jane the Actuary could provide more information.

tim in vermont said...

For what its worth, the life expectancy tables were revised upwards recently, which has caused issues in pension liability computations and elsewhere.

I am sure they prove that SS is in no financial peril and it is still a good idea for young people to pay 16% of their income into the scheme to keep comparatively rich boomers in greens fees and gas for their motorhomes.

But remember, old conservatives who consistently voted to get SS on to a sounder actuarial basis are eeevil old fucks!

tim in vermont said...

The ones who seem to have "died off" are the FDR generation of yellow dog Democrats. So sure, in thirty years, the Reagan version of FDR Democrats will be gone. The only real question is will Obama have minted a new generation, with different social values, but the same conservative desire for limited government and fiscal responsibility?

Gahrie said...

Wait? How old is Hillary? Or Bernie Sanders? Or Reid, Pelosi, Feinstein, Boxer, Biden, etc?

The only Democrat not in AARP is DWS, and she's a blathering idiot.

Anonymous said...

The next time you get annoyed with your commenters, remind yourself that you could have Politico's commenters and count your blessings.

SteveR said...

I think you can make the case that baseball fans are dying off but party politics is not so precise.

In thirty years Texas went from a solid democratic state to a solid republican state but you'd hardly know that driving around.

buwaya puti said...

I never had a heart.

Hammond X. Gritzkofe said...

Unlike here in Texas, where the near comatose in nursing homes, and even the dead, continue to vote Democrat.

Carol said...

People who willingly identify as Republicans are certainly dying off.

The younger ones all say they're independent now. It's the thing to say, and it's quite safe, like being an agnostic or something.

Unfortunately the independents are quite passive, relying on TV and internet, and casting their vote for whoever. Organizational stuff is a drag.

And they usually don't follow local politics because it's "boring."

mikeski said...

"The 'Regan Democrats'[...]"

I consider myself more of a Goneril Republican, but YMMV.

Roger Sweeny said...

Much depends on how one defines "conservative." Capitalism changes things, and much of what political parties do is to tell people that they need to be protected from change. In the United States, Democrats seem to do this more.

For example, there is the environmentalist idea of "the precautionary principle." Basically, nothing should be done unless it can be proved to be very good with no environmental damage. So no GMOs, no fracking, no use of CRISPER on humans, etc. This tends to be more a Democratic than a Republican thing.

Different but related: lots of governments have promised considerably more in the way of retirement benefits than they can pay with present levels of taxation. The few efforts at reform (which basically means reducing promised benefits) have generally come from Republicans and been resisted by Democrats. It was the Republican governor of Illinois' plan that recently got thrown out by the Illinois Supreme Court. Democrats are generally more "conservative" here--and are even directly trying to get benefits for, and votes from, older people.

Michael K said...

I still remember how upset I was when Stevenson lost the 1956 election to Eisenhower. Four years later, after taking an Economics course, I voted for Nixon and enraged my family who were all Roosevelt Democrats.

EMD said...

That's news to all of those faiyl freshly-elected Repubs in state house offices all over the country.

EMD said...

FAIRLY, not faiyl.

Michael said...

I am not certain that the young actually lean as left as many think. They have learned how to talk the talk and keep their real opinions to themselves. I believe that pollsters have learned something about this cohort in recent times, something unsettling.

Paul said...

harrogate said... "Um, you're confusing political debate with life."

Nope buddy, liberals, like conservatives, raise their children to be like themselves. But for the liberals, they kill of a lot of their own children.

It's part of their politics.

n.n said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
n.n said...

The Democrats are dying off, selectively. They are replenishing their ranks with distribution of opiates to unplanned citizens, legal and illegal immigrants, in order to suppress recognition that the Party rejects individual dignity and intrinsic value on principle. Whether it is environmentalists, feminists, abortionists, racists, unionists, transfunctionalists, warmongers, capitalists, or financialists, the Party consists of irreconcilable political factions designed to capture capital, assert control, and suppress dissent by any means necessary to improve the standing and environment of the elitist class and their Posterity.

boinky said...

reminds me of the communists insisting that religion would die off when the old grandmothers died off. Years later, Kruschev was asked why there were so many still attending churches and he shrugged and said: Well, God keeps making more grandmothers.

Rhythm and Balls said...

"If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart."

Luckily there are enough sociopaths in America to have bypassed this stage entirely.

And enough people brainless enough to not remember it.

RecChief said...

sounds like wishful thinking to me. Kind of like that demographic "permanent majority" we used to read about.

Todd Roberson said...

If I were to write the definition of "conventional wisdom" this article might be Exhibit A.