October 23, 2012

Romney 50%, Obama 46%.

The new Rasmussen tracking poll.

That's the first time Romney's hit 50, other than a couple days last May. Obama hit 50 one day in late September and a couple other times.

Romney's also at 50 in the new swing-state tracking poll, with Obama at 45%. That puts him up 2 from yesterday. 


Mogget said...

Now we watch were the candidates and their highest surrogates visit. Obama is in Ohio today, and Romney and Ryan are in Nevada and Colorado. So it would appear that RR like where they are in OH and are eager to push on.

Marshal said...

Things are looking good.

Relatedly, I wonder when garage and the other assholes are going to rescind their "you're all morons trapped in a media cocoon for believing Obama can be beat" theme.

Well, I'm not really wondering, since that answer is never. But I am laughing at the irony.

X said...

Ladies and gentlemen, The Garage Mahal Show is going on hiatus for retooling.

Icepick said...

I was at a networking meeting for out-of-work professionals last night here in Orlando Florida. The general feeling was that we'd be lucky if we got jobs that paid us half of what we used to make. Added to that was the knowledge (explicitly stated during the meeting) that the state of Florida had added 800 jobs on net in September, that this was considered a GOOD month, and that about 800,000 of us are looking for work.

I'm not thinking many of us will be voting for 0.

The show of enthusiasm around town is kind of interesting as well.

SteveR said...

We know now that after the Dem convention, Obama's lead was hurt by the decisive first debate loss, largely unexpected by many, and by the obvious mishandling of the Libyan situation (a slow steady drip). At this point what can swing things back the other way? I think Romney/Ryan will be playing with house money and not forced into taking risky chances. Obama, Axelrod, et al, hae never had to play from behind.

Sloanasaurus said...

For what its worth, Obama opened up a 50-46 pt lead in the Rasmussen poll on Obama around the same time in 2008. That lead never really changed after that and Obama fluctuated between 50-53.

The only thing that is keeping Democrats from completely falling apart are the few polls they get that show Obama still up in Ohio. But now there are just as many polls showing that race tied.

THe CBS poll showing Obama at 50-45in Ohio is grossly skewed with a D+9 sample, which was a higher partisan tournout than 2008.

Democrats know this poll is wrong, which is why they are panicking.

JohnBoy said...

But...........Nate Silver! I only weight polls that have D+15% samples!

Rusty said...

Ain't even gonna be close.

Even with all the democrat cheating.

campy said...

Even with all the democrat cheating.

You really have no idea how much cheating is possible when you set the entire US DOJ to the task.

I've said before and I'm totally serious — if Mittens doesn't exceed a 60–40 landslide, he's toast.

edutcher said...

Had a feeling.

Be interesting to see how much of an avalanche there will be.

Mogget said...

Now we watch were the candidates and their highest surrogates visit. Obama is in Ohio today, and Romney and Ryan are in Nevada and Colorado. So it would appear that RR like where they are in OH and are eager to push on.

Ryan's in Cleveland tomorrow. I agree with what Mogget says, but I think they want to rattle Barry's cage a little.

Sloanasaurus said...

Obama opened up a 50-46 pt lead in the Rasmussen poll on Obama

Think you mean "on McCain".

Tim said...




Christopher in MA said...

Ladies and gentlemen, The Garage Mahal Show is going on hiatus for retooling.

Actually, I suspect the Garage Mahal Show is shooting on location (copied from Cold Fury, since Breitbart is down):

A state senator’s son in Wisconsin (where else), savagely beaten by two liberal-fascist cowards he caught trying to steal a Romney sign from his lawn. This is how it’s going to start, people. If the liberal-fascists don’t come to their senses soon and back off a bit from The Crazy they’ve indulged with complete impunity for so long, then there’s simply going to be no reason for reasonable, decent people to sit back and continue to take it from them. They’re going to start defending themselves, their homes, and their freedom from these thuggish marauders, using any means they deem appropriate.

They had this guy in a chokehold while they beat him; deadly force in response was appropriate, as his own life was clearly endangered by these Obama-sucking goons, whether they intended to kill him or not. If Kedzie had shot them dead he’d have been within his rights as far as I’m concerned, and any (figurative) tears I might shed over it would not be for them, but for the sorry pass they and people like them have brought my country to.

I’m sure Kedzie would be duly horrified at everything I just said here, as well he might be, seeing as how it is in fact, y’know, horrifying. But he himself also said he wished to see people stand up for their rights, at long last. Blustering and threatening action against this sort of thing while doing nothing in the end is not “standing up for” anything, and at this point winning an election–or any number of them–is only going to make it worse.

We all know the insane, violent Left is simply not going to stop until they have us all in chains–not now, not when they’ve come so close to their ultimate goal of unbridled power. An unstoppable force is getting ready to meet an immoveable object.

And don’t give me any crap about how Republicans or Tea Partiers “do the same thing” or are “just as bad.” No, they fucking well are not, and anybody with any sense at all knows it. If it had been one of ours beating someone down for having the temerity to express an “incorrect” opinion, the Right blogs and everyplace else would be collectively bowing their heads in shame and denouncing the despicable act in no uncertain terms.

You won’t see anything of the kind from the Left, except maybe for one or two places, which we on our side will all bend over backward to praise to the skies for actually showing the most minimal sliver of decency for once, in vain hopes of encouraging more of it from their vile fellows. All the rest will either deny it; ignore it; offer lame rationalizations of the type I just dismissed for it; exult in it; or spin some fanciful conspiracy theory about how it just HAD to be Tea Party agents provocateur looking to discredit The Movement.

This story is but one of all too many examples of liberal-fascist thugs beating down people who dare to publicly object to being made slaves in their socialist utopia. It can’t go on a whole lot longer. And it won’t. If the Left can’t rule over all of us as they wish, then they want a war over it. And a war is exactly what they’re eventually going to get. It’s beyond sad, but as I said: there it is.

whoresoftheinternet said...

So fascist-lite is beating straight-up fascist.

Hooray, America!

Tim said...

There are two things that would be immediately gratifying about a Romney victory.

First, America would immediately upgrade its Executive Branch. Will this be sufficient to stem the looming financial disaster? Probably not, but it is the necessary first step.

Second, *some* idiot voters, who foolishly, stupidly, shortsightedly, ignorantly voted for the least qualified man ever nominated by a major political party for president, will have learned from their mistake. This is crucial, because in the end, if the Republic is to survive, it requires far fewer idiot voters than manifested in the '08 election. Because this Republican cannot survive idiot voters voting for unqualified candidates subscribing to nation-cannibalizing ideologies. It just cannot.

Bob Ellison said...

Romney by seven on the sixth of the eleventh month.

Emil Blatz said...

Yowsah! Yowsah! Yowsah!

Lew Lipshitz said...

I read that Obama stayed at the Embassy Suites on Yamato Road near I-95. Right now he's at a rally at the Delray Beach Tennis Center. I can't believe he'd stay at such a hotel. Not because it is rough (which it was the last time I was there), but because it is immediately adjacent to I-95. That has to be a security issue.

Bob Ellison said...

I've decided my prediction needs a better slogan, and this sounds good:

Romney by seven on the sixth of eleven.

There's also a nod to Star Trek there.

clint said...

That's two: Rasmussen and Gallup now both have Romney at or above 50%.

How long before more follow?

Geraldus Maximus said...

At this point the fat lady is warming up. It would take some kind of monumental surprise to turn things around. Romney has been running so long that he has been thoroughly vetted. The media's reputation for honesty is in tatters so even if they pile on something it would be difficult to get traction. Since Obama is Romney's opponent even if there were a real scandal I think many voters would just suck it up.

My concern at this point is the stuff where people on the right are taking this as validation of the Republican party. No, this is not the case. It is pure and absolute rejection of Obama that will likely lead to massive coat tails and gains for the Right in both houses as well as the Presidency. Every single time this leads to crowing -- by both sides when they win -- to how the other party is out for a generation and then a complete over reach in governing. In they end they cut their own throats and the mid terms come and bring them down from their high horse.

I'm left only with the hope that the Tea Party can hold the Right's feet to the fire to fix some foundational issues with the economy and debt and leave all the social stuff alone. I'm a hard core Christian but Libertarian when it comes to government. Advances in morality have to be person to person not top down. I think Mitt gets it, or at least I hope he does. But the maroons in the Congress? Not so sure.

I'm happy for the mandate and the coat tails but I don't know if the country can take another near term pendulum swing back to the left. That might not be recoverable. Yes, call me Debbie Downer but that is my concern at this point.

hombre said...

Time for some good ol' Chicago sleaze from the Great Uniter.

Can Obama get the economic illiterati to the polls in sufficient numbers to save the day with an "October surprise?"