September 12, 2011

Is Perry ahead in the polls mainly because Republicans think he's most likely to win?

I'm reading this new CNN poll of Republicans and " independents who lean toward the GOP":
Thirty-six percent, for example, see him as the strongest leader in the field, with Romney second at 21 percent. According to the poll, 35 percent say Perry is the Republican candidate most likely to get the economy moving again, with Romney in second at 26 percent.

Nearly three in ten say that Perry is the candidate who is most likely to fight for his beliefs, with Palin in second place at 23 percent and, significantly, Romney in a distant tie for fourth at just 11 percent.
But Perry's biggest strength may be the electability factor, with 42 percent saying he has the best chance of beating Obama next year. Some 26 percent say Romney has the best chance of defeating the president....
As I said in the previous post, Perry gives Romney the opportunity to demonstrate a fighting spirit.
The poll indicates that Perry doesn't fare quite as well on issues. Only 26 percent say he is the Republican hopeful who is most likely to agree with them on the issues. That's good enough for the top spot on that measure, too, but it's a far cry from the low 30s and high 40s Perry pulls on electability and leadership.

Perry's biggest Achilles heel may be the likeability factor. Only one in four say he is the most likable GOP candidate out there, his lowest mark on the six items tested.
He still comes out in first place, though! (PDF here.) Second place goes to Palin, who's not even running (yet). So what kind of an Achilles heel is it that one in 5 persons thinks Sarah Palin is more likeable than you?!


Henry said...

Achilles wasn't likable either.

That didn't help Hector much.

Erik Robert Nelson said...

At this point I wonder how much likability really matters. Most of the people I've talked to don't care at all about liking the candidate. They just want someone to fix things. I don't need to like my plumber, after all. I just need him to fix my pipes.

traditionalguy said...

Perry is still in the stereotyped stage as a true grit tough guy. That has its pros as a leader, but it has its cons as a likable person.

But strange as it may seem , Perry is actually a very likable person and people will see that as the TV keeps the camera on him longer than the snipped and cut sound bites to date.

As for Sarah Palin, she is loved and will get that Most Congenial Award everytime.

Bob said...

Closest thing we have to a Reagan this election cycle, at least among those declared candidates with penises.

Jon said...

Small gain for Romney since CNN's last poll. In a race with Palin he’s gained 1 point on Perry (-13 to -12), in a race without Palin he’s gained 3 points (-14 to -11).

Unknown said...


I detest Obama, and he still won.

Joanna said...

It's all foreplay 'til Palin announces.

JohnJ said...

I see that Romney actually has moved ahead of Perry on Intrade.

I don't believe Perry is more likely to beat Obama. In the midst of a general election campaign, I suspect Romney would be better organized, more disciplined, and have fewer liabilities to be exploited by Obama's billion-dollar slander & libel machine.

Bayoneteer said...
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Roger J. said...

Seems to me it will be an interesting race on the GOP side--I believe any candidat the GOP will put up will be a serious challenger to Mr Obama--who, as near as I can tell, doesnt have much to run on--it will be an interesting 18 months

Scott M said...

If the R's nominate Perry and they will lose.

I'm A Great American, And You Can Too.

trumpetdaddy said...

Erik - yeah, but you don't have to see your plumber on the tv every day for 4-8 years. Don't underestimate how important comfort level with a person is to the low-information voters who decide presidential elections.

The two leading Republican candidates both have disagreeable personalities. One is smarmy and plastic, like a living Ken doll. The other comes across like a less-intelligent, meaner version of George W. Bush.

Where is the sunny, optimistic, happy warrior, similar to Reagan and Jack Kemp? That's right, she hasn't declared yet.

Saint Croix said...

What Joanna said. Except it's lame, stupid foreplay. It's wait in line at the drugstore for condoms foreplay.

Saint Croix said...

The reason Palin is waiting, by the way, is money. Campaigns cost money. And you raise money by granting access and power to millionaires and billionaires. You engage in the typical campaign prostitution. And I don't think she's going to do that.

Which means her campaign is going to be relatively poor. She's going to rely upon individual donations over the internet. No bundlers. She's skipping all that.

So she is shrinking the length of her campaign and reducing the cost of it.

SGT Ted said...

When I read articles about politicians and the subject is superficial things, the voice I use in my head is that of a teenage girls talking to her BFF.

O mai GAWD!

SGT Ted said...

Ugh. Another 14 months of "Republican candidates are stoopids" to go through.

It's like the swallows returning to Capistrano, very predictable.

edutcher said...

The base doesn't trust Romney, so a credible Conservative will do well, and, sad to say, Mrs Bachmann didn't really fill the bill.

Joanna said...

It's all foreplay 'til Palin announces.

We all know what happens when foreplay goes on too long.

And, no, I don't think she's going to run, and, yes, it shows how smart she is.

Bender said...

Romney peaked four years ago. He's old news. Since then, he has not gained any real support. If you were "meh" about him last time around, there has been absolutely nothing in the interim for you to get excited about him.

In fact, everything about Romney since the last time around has given people more reason to not want to be saddled with him. Especially since his staff is parroting the elitist-establishment staff of John McCain in its contempt and distain for any true conservatives (see their attack on their own VP nominee).

Rick Perry has support because he is an authentic conservative, not a slick, inauthentic, robotic weasel of a politician.

Bender said...

As for Sarah Palin, if she does declare, it is likely that she intends to run merely as a stalking horse. To direct fire where it should be directed toward -- Obama and the Dems, and not fellow Republicans -- and to take the heat off of Perry from attacks by Romney, who is indeed a total POS for showing more energy and enthusiasm in attacking Perry, rather than Obama, or in promoting his own slim left-of-center governing record.

trumpetdaddy said...

Perry has support because he's not Romney and actually could win, unlike everybody else in the field currently.

That doesn't mean he's a good candidate against Obama. In fact, he's pretty much exactly the kind of candidate that Obama would choose to run against if he could control that factor.

I attribute Perry's current polling to Bachmann fading as the anti-Romney and Palin not having declared yet more than anything intrinsically attractive about him.

He's the flavor of the month in a month that is still too early to mean much of anything.

Bender said...

[Perry's] pretty much exactly the kind of candidate that Obama would choose to run against if he could control that factor

This is true. It is also true that Obama and the Dems are delusional political fools.

gerry said...

We all know what happens when foreplay goes on too long.

We do?

Kirby Olson said...

We have to have someone who will beat Obama in Ohio and Florida -- the two key battleground states. Obama just gave Ohio a huge gift -- he said he'd get the Brent Spence bridge rebuilt -- essentially giving Ohio several billions.

He'll probably have similar handouts for Florida before the election is held.

We have to have someone likeable who can accomplish things. Pee Wee Herman is likeable, and he could get things done in the public sphere, but they were the wrong things -- generally speaking.

Obama works by drawing in key constituencies, and promising them things at the expense of the polity.

We need someone who will lift America in general. I wish we could at least here Thaddeus McCotter tonight in Miami. I think he'd change the whole tenor of the debate.

Until then, I think it's Perry.

viator said...

"And the days grow short
When you reach September.
When the Autumn weather
turns the leaves to flame
One hasn’t got time
For the waiting game.

For the days dwindle down
To a precious few...

Coming soon.
Meanwhile Palin has a cost effective seat at the demolition derby.

Saint Croix said...
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Matt said...

Rick Perry has support because he is an authentic conservative, not a slick, inauthentic, robotic weasel of a politician.

You're kidding, right?

All I see is a slick robotic [Texas] weasel when I see Perry. Thanks for the words to express it.

Peter Hoh said...

Perry's ahead because he's the newest, most credible guy not named Romney. Perry is still in the rollout phase. If he doesn't stumble, I think he wins the nomination.

I suspect that Romney fares better against Obama than Perry does, but I also expect that Perry will motivate the GOP base better than Romney. Right now, I think it's too close to call.

Now, which of these two is more likely to motivate Democrats to get out and vote? But it doesn't really matter if Obama wins California by 10 points or 12. What really matters is how these guys play in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Florida.

I'm not sure that "electability" is the best thing to look for in a candidate. It's worth remembering that Democrats got behind Kerry in '04 because they decided that he was "most electable."

Saint Croix said...

Karl Rove frickin' hates Perry. The Bush folks and the Perry folks do not get along at all. Rove uses the current Social Security kerfuffle to rip Perry a new one. And if I'm not mistaken, he's strongly suggesting it's time for Palin to come in. Which is refreshing, as I can't remember any frickin' Republican commentator saying that before, except maybe for the radio guys.

If this Perry-Romney skirmish grows and grows, expect more and more Republicans to start sounding like Princess Leia. "Help us, Sarah, you're our only hope."

Sorin said...

Palin is running in stealth mode. She is using her 2006 playbook for governor as a guide.

The Crack Emcee said...

Is Perry ahead in the polls mainly because Republicans think he's most likely to win?

No, conservatives don't think like that, it's cynical. (Like your knocking of the national anthem before the debate - you call it cheesy, we call it patriotism, and you're just acting like an elitist snob.) Perry is ahead because he's the true conservative in the group.

I still want Palin, but Perry will suit me just fine.