Althouse: "If Manchin, Nelson and Lieberman switched, it would leave the Senate in a 50-50 deadlock."

November 8, 2010

"If Manchin, Nelson and Lieberman switched, it would leave the Senate in a 50-50 deadlock."

"Republicans believe Manchin is particularly susceptible to the overture because he is up for reelection in 2012 and will have to be on the ticket with President Obama, who is direly unpopular in West Virginia. Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Independent Joe Lieberman are the other two prime targets of Republican advances."

34 comments:

Anonymous said...: Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?; 11/8/10, 10:12 PM
SteveR said...: Webb's also been brought up but I doubt more than one will.; 11/8/10, 10:18 PM
Peter Hoh said...: Please. Go for it.

Be careful what you wish for.; 11/8/10, 10:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Nobody will. Politicians are not usually particularly bright, but they are mostly very good at understanding the social and political landscape. If they haven't figured out by now that two years is an eternity in politics right now and that jumping parties has paid off for no one, then we are lost as a people.

This sounds like a holiday column to me.; 11/8/10, 10:22 PM
Trooper York said...: They will not do that. It would be stupid. Now both sides have to come to them for their votes. What's in it for them?; 11/8/10, 10:22 PM
traditionalguy said...: I believe that Webb and Manchin have no place in an Obama supporting group in the Senate with both men's careers on the line in 2012. They need the GOP bad. They will await the next Obamanation to announce. Lieberman won't convert. Nelson is such a jerk neither side wants him.; 11/8/10, 10:29 PM
Mark said...: No way Manchin switches. He's popular in West Virginia and can run as Obama's Democratic Nemesis.

Flip and he loses a LOT of the goodwill he has.

Staying (D) he gets courted by Republicans, gets to play "Sane Democrat" to his very socially conservative base, and is going to get TONS of facetime in the national media.

He's probably the happiest Democrat in America right now.; 11/8/10, 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Manchin won't switch. He's Zell Miller. There's a whole 'nother kind of Democrat in the world who does not reside in the Bay Area or Manhattan. My parents were Democrats. But they sure as hell weren't Obama Democrats.; 11/8/10, 10:35 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Rush's prescription is to keep sending to the senate and ultimately to Obama a repeal bill.. "make them defend Obama care" says Rush.

Ultimately my sense is that despite the clear message sent by the voters, republicans will not follow thru.. pointing to their minority status in the senate will be one of their cowardly excuse.; 11/8/10, 10:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Take it from me now. Believe me later.

The GOP can never - ever - win the Senate.

The House victory for the GOP is TEMPORARY. It will pass in Nov. 2012.

The problem for the GOP is: What is the ticket for 2012 that can have a shot - a reasonable shot - at the POTUS/VPOTUS.

Answer: No. There is no GOP ticket.

You cannot handle the truth: GOP is facing the beginning of the end. What fun to see this party shiver, like a scared rabbit....; 11/8/10, 10:48 PM
Peter Hoh said...: AP: When we made that bet, I was prepared to keep my word.; 11/8/10, 10:52 PM
Robin said...: America's Politico, you keep saying that but an analysis of the seats in play in the Senate in 2012 shows you really don't know what you are talking about.; 11/8/10, 10:56 PM
Anonymous said...: For fuck's sake, people. America's Politico is a troll playing for humor. IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE FUNNY.

What fun to see this party shiver, like a scared rabbi

You don't see the over-the-top aspect there? Really?; 11/8/10, 10:57 PM
Bender said...: I'm sure that Lindsey Graham and the Maine sisters and other establishment Republicans would be in favor of trying to recruit Ben Nelson, but even if he were to switch, there is a 100 percent guarantee that he would face a primary challenge from the right and/or Tea Party, and that he would lose that primary.

The Republican Party does NOT need people like the sleezy kickbacker Ben Nelson.; 11/8/10, 10:58 PM
Anonymous said...: a scared rabbi

Not quite as funny as rabbit.; 11/8/10, 10:58 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: If republicans were up to the job there wouldn't be a need for tea parties..

wv = latin = US senate language.; 11/8/10, 10:58 PM
Jim said...: They're not going to switch, and I don't think that the Republicans are really trying that hard to get them to.

I'm going to guess that the Cornhusker Kickback makes Nelson pretty much a dead man walking. I'd be surprised if he even decides to run again.

Lieberman isn't going to switch: Connecticut is dead to Republicans - at least for now.

Manchin has no reason to switch - at least for now. I have a feeling he's going to stick his finger in the wind when 2012 rolls around. Obama almost sunk him this time, and if he thinks that Obama might drag him down in 2012 he might switch then. But this the guy who was for ObamaCare before he was against it, so don't count on anything other than pure re-election strategy figuring into his calculation.

Webb? Why would he want to? If things keep going as they are, he'll be perfectly positioned as a party savior to run as a presidential candidate in 2016.

The Leftists in the Democratic Party are busy discrediting themselves by proving that their policies are both political and economic suicide, so unless things turn around in a hurry Democrats are going to be looking for a centrist/conservative Democrat at the top of the ticket in 2016. And that pretty much leaves Evan Bayh and Jim Webb...and...ummm...either Bayh or Webb....; 11/8/10, 11:11 PM
Ankur said...: They won't switch for the same reason the Maine Twins won't. What's in it for them? It would diminish their stature.; 11/8/10, 11:13 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: I listened to Glen Beck today.. don't like his rhetorical style much but hes on before Rush so I though why not.

He read a poem by Kipling..

The Gods of the Copybook Headings

AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

Most of you probably know what the poem is about.. I had never heard of it.; 11/8/10, 11:19 PM
Fred4Pres said...: Leiberman, no way. Joe knows as a Republican he is vulnerable. As a Dem he is vulnerable. As an indie, he is untouchable.

Nelson is a dead man walking. Obamacare killed him.

Manchin...maybe Manchin.; 11/8/10, 11:23 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: I would find this talk a bit more credible if the Republicans had been able to win a couple of those close races, like Colorado and Washington. Then, a couple switches would give them control, and that would be worth trading for, maybe, a committee chairmanship. Even better if they had won Nevada or Delaware with a stronger candidate too. Then, all they would need would be one switch to get control.

But with 4 for control, I don't see any chance.

Of course, when we get a bit nearer to 2012, and if the Republicans are still running strong, it might pay. Even with an even vote, the Republicans likely pick up control then, and being in the majority does have its advantages.; 11/8/10, 11:36 PM
Dark Eden said...: This is pure fantasy.; 11/8/10, 11:42 PM
holdfast said...: Don't see it - in a close Senate every man is a king, so why change?

Joementum is set for life where he is. Webb looks to be getting out of the game. Nelson is an idiot and radioactive. And the GOP house will protect Manchin from having to vote on any enviro issues, so no worries for him.; 11/9/10, 1:18 AM
Anonymous said...: What deadlock? Biden gets a casting vote.; 11/9/10, 1:41 AM
John Lawton said...: "Direly unpopular?" Anybody want to sell me an adjective for a used adverb? Anybody? Bueller?; 11/9/10, 2:59 AM
AllenS said...: This is a good time to understand why the Tea Party, or any other third party is a necessity. Republicans at the present time are interested only in what letter is behind the politicians name. What about the man's commitment to reduce the deficit?

I can't stand Republicans or Democrats. We are still totally fucked.; 11/9/10, 6:47 AM
Phil 314 said...: Won't Republicans get cooties if they talk to these Democrats?

So will this be the proverbial
"would you rather be shot or hung" proposition for Joe Manchin?

Let see, who do I want to hate me more, Republicans or Democrats?

And in spite of being a RINO/DINO he had a 70% approval rating as Gov of WV.

I WANT PURITY!!!; 11/9/10, 7:54 AM
Clyde said...: It worked so well for Arlen Specter. And Charlie Crist.; 11/9/10, 7:54 AM
Phil 314 said...: PS Note how one year ago Scott Brown was the Republican darling, demonstrating the "coming Republican majority".

Now he's a target.

I WANT PURITY!!; 11/9/10, 7:57 AM
Lincolntf said...: Everyone's a "target", c3. Tea Party people in general don't believe that once you get elected to a seat you hold onto it until you die, retire or sell it to the highest bidder. If you fail to deliver, be ready for the boot.
That said, eliminating Scott Brown is hardly a cause celebre on the Right.
We know what he is, and right now he's the only thing standing between us and a 100% Dem hammerlock on MA high offices.; 11/9/10, 8:20 AM
test said...: "We are still totally fucked."

Yeah, but the dick's a little smaller than it was last week.; 11/9/10, 8:47 AM
Big Mike said...: I'm thinking Webb more than Nelson. And Lieberman is a definite "no."

Question for Tea Party members from Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware. If the Republican party gets to 51 in the US Senate with Nelson, Webb, Manchin, and a pissed-off-at-us Murkowski, are we better off relative to the Republican Party's ideological center than if you backed Norton, Lowden, and Castle?

Just thought I'd ask.; 11/9/10, 9:18 AM
Geoff Matthews said...: How did switching work out for Specter?
Bad idea, all around. Better to be a heretical Dem in 2012 than a turncoat.; 11/9/10, 12:59 PM
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