September 9, 2008

Look at the movement on Gallup's "strong and decisive leader" graph.

What accounts for that? Is it all about Sarah? Picking her was "strong and decisive." Or was it something more general about the 2 conventions.

More on this new poll here.

Here's another interesting Gallup poll -- showing a big post-convention shift among independent voters, from 40% supporting McCain to 52%.


And this, for some reason, makes me want to add that Andrew Sullivan, who's only posted once today, says he's "absolutely fine," don't worry about him, "nothing has changed with this blog, no one is pressuring me to write or not write anything," and he's just taking some time off.

IN THE COMMENTS: Simon writes:
[Sullivan] is perhaps trying to get to grips with the reality that his weird idea about how picking Sarah Palin was a mistake has been rapidly and publicly falsified.
He was so deeply committed to this prediction and intent on making it come true that it must have been mortifying to realize that attacks like his on Sarah Palin were making her far more popular than she would be now if she'd been treated with ordinary, boring respect.

AND: Sullivan has a couple more posts now, and Ace decodes them.


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Anonymous said...

Michael -- Enough. Say something interesting or go away.

Roberto said...

randy: Hail Palin.

Roberto said...

seven machos: Obama will win.

Anonymous said...

McCain will get at least 300 electoral votes.

Peter V. Bella said...

Seven Machos said...
First of all, Daley is a pretty good mayor. Second of all, there's not a machine here. Third, how can you say that a man of any skin color of humble background who graduated from Harvard Law and became a senator and a major-party nominee for president is a hack?

How long have you lived in Chicago? I was born and raised here. I spent almost thirty years working for the City as a cop. We hate Daley. He is the most ineffective and corrupt mayor we have had in many years.

1.) Daley is not a good mayor. Yeah, yeah, the city is clean. Big deal. He destroyed our neighborhoods and is turning the city into a suburban paradise. He claims to be green, yet it is getting to the point where you can no longer walk to a corner store. You have to drive; the developers are building on every former commercial lot available.

2.) He runs a very effective political machine; inherited from his father- and it is alive and well. How else do you explain the life long poltroons we have for aldermen? How do you explain forty nine out of fifty aldermen who are Democrats and the one Republican is a RINO? How do you explain one corruption scandal after another and more coming? How do you explain a Todd Stroger? How do you explain our governor; son in law of a very powerful poltroon alderman? It is all part of the Democratic political machine.

Do not even get me started on it is not what you know but who you know- which is why Police morale is in the toilet and the fire department is not far behind. It is all clout and patronage. If you do not know some one you do not advance. If you do not know someone you are lucky to get a city or county job. If you are a cop and do not know someone you stay a beat cop. I could go on and cite examples, but servers would crash.

I will give you a personal example. I tried for years to get into a specialized unit. I was overly qualified. I was told over and over again to have my clout call. I had no clout. All I had was vast experience. Guys who had no experience were brought in on phone calls. It goes on in every department everyday here.

3.) Barak Obama is the protégé of Emil Jones. You heard of Emil Jones? The corrupt Southside politician who is anointing his own son to replace him? The son who has no college degree and his only job experience is one appointed position after another- positions that required a degree- thanks to dear old dad? Emil Jones tapped Obama to run for office and guaranteed his wins. Harvard law means nothing. He is a lawyer, so what. There are a lot of lawyers and they went to prestigious law schools. They even practice law. Obama’s father went to Harvard, so he may have been a legacy student. What has Obama done? What has he accomplished? Just like what has Hillary done? No one can say. He is all smoke and mirrors.

How long have you lived here? Do you live in the city or the burbs? Please, do not ever say there is no Chicago political machine or that Daley is a good mayor. It denotes you as a rube.

Roberto said...

WomenCount, a group co-founded by top Hillary fundraiser Susie Tompkins Buell, posted a lengthy item on their blog decrying questions over whether Palin can, as a mother of five, juggle her family responsibilities and still be vice president.

Sooooooooooooooo, are the locals here going to pile on this silly Hillary supporter?


Anonymous said...

Peter V. -- My answer is back a bit. I'm not saying Chicago is perfect. We have huge problems. It seems to me, though, that a guy like Daley and the level of corruption we have is about the best we're going to get in the real world.

I'm lucky. I have a good life. I know the Chicago I see is only a sliver of what there is.

Sweet dreams.

1775OGG said...

7M or is it SM: who made you blog-meister. Do you personally count every one's comments and harshly chastise those who exceed the magic count, the super-secret count limit?

Fascinating. More proof that Dems are really Dhimmi's looking to claim their dominance based on their unproved claims of whatever suits their limited fancy!

AGrad said...

Of course the military will always have greater suicide rates than the country at large. This is a common lame statistical trick that was true every year before Iraq as wewll. Men commit suicide at rates at least 5 times as high as women. Any largely male institution will have suicide rates higher than the U.S. population. Police, Firemen etc. regularly have higher suicide rates than the U.S. population.

Peter V. Bella said...

Roger J. said...
the democratic party, not unlike the republican party, let their extreme finges capture the party. The American public is not extreme, and recognizes extremism when they see it--the dems are going to suffer this election cycle.

You get the tail and the ears. You hit the nail on the head.

Anonymous said...

Grouchy -- I'm a conservative. I call 'em like I see 'em. You do the same.

Anonymous said...

You think that's what this is about for me? ROFLMAO! No Michael, I detest vile creatures like you who engage in despicable lies and gross insuations to advance a political agenda. While you've repeatedly demonstrated an ability to follow your prepared script for an evening, your latest reply proves yet again that you haven't got a clue about much else.

Roberto said...

Peter, If Daley is such a horrible mayor, explain this:

He was elected mayor in 1989 and reelected in 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, and 2007. His 2007 re-election set him on the path to becoming the longest serving Mayor in the city's history.

Your comments couldn't possibly be based in politics or pure prejudice...could they?

Peter V. Bella said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Michael -- Why would a person's political arguments be based on politics? What kind of sense does that make?

Roberto said...

randy, why would I care what you think?

You're just another right wing ideologue who follows the pack.

We've had eight years of the worst leadership in our nation's history and you'll vote for another four of the same.

McCain voted with Bush 90-95% of the time.

Do the math genius.

AGrad said...

Hmmm. Michael, I assume you will agree then that Bush being re-elected in 2004 meant that Buswh was more popular than Kerry? I mean if Daley getting re-elected is only a sign of popularity and not a powerful political machine then Bush was just the most popular president ever. He got the most votes of any American politician ever.

Revenant said...

I doubt there's anyone here dumb enough to take any of Michael's posts seriously, but in the unlikely event that there is you should bear in mind that Kilkenny's already been exposed as a liar.

For example, she copied as list of books (which have been banned at one time or another) from the Florida Institute of Technology website, then tried to pass it off as a list of books Palin tried to ban as mayor. Despite some of the books not having been published at the time.

Roberto said...

seven, Peter attacked Daley as being a horrible mayor but offered no evidence, other than personal attacks, based in pure politics and obvious prejudice.

I asked a very straight forward question.

If he's such a horrible person and horrible in the world does he get re-elected over and over and over again?


Nichevo said...

Where the white women at? There's a reason that's a funny line.

Yeah, but I can't tell you what it is, Ann would get mad at me.

Anonymous said...

What a silly reply, Michael.

Roberto said...

Oh, Revvvvvvvvvv, I posted it to get the rise I got.

Her tirade is no different than the insane comments and postings found here that disparage Obama, Biden, Hillary of Bill.

For whatever reason, most here have a reverence for Palin that teeters on fanaticism...and this, after only really knowing anything at all about the woman for about a frigging week or so.

I find it strange and rather scary.

Roberto said...

Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, Randy.

Does this mean we're not buddies anymore?

Revenant said...

It seems to me, though, that a guy like Daley and the level of corruption we have is about the best we're going to get in the real world.

It is the best Chicago is likely to get, certainly. But the moral of that story is that nobody should trust any politician from Chicago. :)

Roberto said...

agrad, Bush won by 3,000,000 votes.

I suppose that would mean he was more popular than Kerry.


Just as Daley being re-elected over and over and over and over agin.


Oh, no...wait, nobody actually VOTES in Chicago, the "machine" merely posts the results.


Anonymous said...

the moral of that story is that nobody should trust any politician from Chicago. :)

True for almost all of them anywhere, I think ;-)

Roberto said...

We have George W. Bush as President and Dick Cheney as the V.P. and people here are upset about Daley in Chicago??

Talk about priorities.

Revenant said...

Oh, Revvvvvvvvvv, I posted it to get the rise I got.

Er, ok... the "rise" consisted of three people saying they weren't going to bother reading your post.

Heck, I didn't even bother reading it. I just noticed the name at the end and posted the FactCheck link. :)

Her tirade is no different than

... your usual postings? :)

nd this, after only really knowing anything at all about the woman for about a frigging week or so.

Like I pointed out to you when you made that silly claim last week, a lot of the regulars here were touting her as a good VP pick before McCain ever announced his choice. Myself included.

She's only "new" to people who don't follow politics. You, for example.

Revenant said...

We have George W. Bush as President and Dick Cheney as the V.P. and people here are upset about Daley in Chicago??

Bush got more votes than any President in history. By your standards that makes him the best President ever. :)

AGrad said...

What is amazing about Michael - beyond the fqact that he never responds to people who completely demolish his "arguments - is that he doesn't even think through the implications of his own assertions.

Given an even passing familiarity with urban politics he thinks a politican getting re-elected year after year can only be because of doing a sterling job. Hahahahaha.

You know where else besides Chicago the same leaders get re-elected time after time no matter what? Tin pot, third world crapholes. That is where. Mugabe was "re-elected". Just before we killed him Saddam was re-elected. Castro wins year after year. He is soooo POPULAR!

It could be popularity for doing a great job. It could be that he has a stranglehold on the city and no one can mount an effective campaign against him.

Still, he may even do some good things for the city although the murder rate there is of the charts at the moment. Tamminy Hall built some of Boston's greatest architecture. Only the Kennedy machine could get the Big Dig done.

So, I can believe that trash gets picked up. How much does it cost compared to what it should? Can a trash hauler who doesn't pay get a contract to haul trash?

A good friend of mine's father was a city councilman in Philly. Totally mobbed up guy. He gave great retail service to his constituents. I shudder to think what would have happened if he could have controlled the city for 30 years. Nice guy on a personal level though.

AGrad said...

And I do think Bush getting his votes was because he had an effective political machine behind him. He was also more popular but I am sure that both he and Kerry got votes that were boght and paid for in different areas.

Thank god we don't have a unified national federal election system. At least the current system means that corrupt areas such as King County, WA or Chicago (or I am sure some red state areas although none have been so bad that they have become famous like Chicago) are the be all and end all of our election system.

But Michael, it seems naive of you to believe that anyone can be in power so long strictly on the merits. Whatever level of corruption Daley began with can only get exponentially greater as he hangs on. Especially because in big cities unlike national elections - a mayor can have direct influence on the election systems themselves.

Beau said...

Use it to a woman, and hooboy, moose will fly.

Cindy McCain is cool with it.

"McCain's face reddened, and he responded, "At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cunt."

Zachary Sire said...

I'm way late here. Sorry everyone, I had a training to go to for my new job. Wheeee.

Three things:

1. People who copy and paste 5000-word manifestos as comments should be shot in the face, the end.

2. Camille Paglia is either a disingenuous hack trying to seem "edgy," or she's gone completely bonkers. Her main argument for loving Palin is because she reminds her of some woman who carried a calf into a barn? That's rich.

Paglia goes on to justify all the documented positions and facts about Palin that aren't exactly the makings of a feminist (pro-life, tried to fire a librarian, on tape calling the war God's plan) by saying:

Right now, I don't believe much of what I read or hear about Palin in the media.

The hell?! Fine, she doesn't believe the media, but did she do any research on her own, or did she just Google those bikini pictures? Does it matter to Paglia that Palin has been misstating things, repeatedly, in that same recycled convention speech, that is now the stump speech, every day? Is lying about your record a feminist trait? Or is it only the "Annie Oakley" image that matters?

3. I know a lot of cunts. I am friends with cunts. Sarah Palin is no cunt.

Nichevo said...

Rick Lazio had to be very careful how he treated Hillary Clinton in her first Senate race. He was not careful enough, actually, in modulating his assertiveness. He could have got away with that bit with the paper if HRC had been a man, though.

You notice more recently that HRC used the cry-bomb vs. O more than once. (One step below blowing the judges at an ice-skating contest!)

I don't know who you care to blame, but yes, women do need to be held to the same standards. So far, anything that anybody's got on Sarah Palin has been used and discarded.

If they find she dealt with the Russians or the family is poly or something (dead boy/live girl?) then they'll throw that one too and Palin will have to deal with an incoming kitchen sink. Just know that mud sticks to the thrower too.

Why don't you just go Zen, imagine Palin as a Biden with boobs - IOW, irrelevant - and go after the meat: your issues, McCain, Bush, the fisc, the process, rights, yada yada yada.

Can't the left work clean? Any possible data point on efficacy of these Left smears has to be seen in the polling eruptions. Do they think that without their gutter tactics, they would actually be doing WORSE? If it hurts hitting your thumb with a hammer, either drop the hammer or change your aim! (Use a nail next time, dummy ;>.)

So ISTM they just can't help themselves. They can't stop working the room blue. All their sets, all their numbers are blue, they are Old Vegas, 1940s Vegas, Bugsy Siegel still fresh on the slab.

it is no more a reach than turning McCain's "100 years" comment into a claim he wants war for 100 years

Two wrongs don't always make a right.

But now that we see McCain used the lipstick/pig line with Hillary last year, can we all agree that this issue is over?


1) You hereby agree to cry Hold, enough!" on "100 years" in this election?

2) Let me tell you a little story. I once worked for a Big Seven/Six accounting/consulting firm. I was in IT and my boss was a woman and her boss was a woman. My partner was a woman and the teams were probably close to 50-50. (should have dated more, sigh)

But in any case my boss' boss, we'll call her Lynn, was steaming over a slow response to some inquiries. This got put to me to resolve and I emailed the architect something to the effect of:

Where are those [reports]? Lynn despairs of ever receiving them.

Now I thought that was a tidy bit of wordsmithing (I found a variant on this phrasing in an Aubrey-Maturin novel, too, much later in my life) that conveyed the seriousness of the case.

It got results, immediately forwarded and actioned properly. PR0FIT!!!1!!, right?

Well, no. Because Lina my boss asked me (did she call or come to my desk? I forget) to report to Lynn's office.

Sat down, how'd it go, got the reports, great, etc.

"[Nichevo], what did you mean by writing, "despaired," in this email?

--OMG, she thinks I called her a weak woman or something, she thinks that to be called despairing is an insult, I made her look like a bitch in front of people, OH NOES!

"Why," I believe I stammered smoothly, "I was being poetical--no reflexion intended--far from it--when a sailing ship is late and fails to reach port, tide after tide, storm after storm, eventually she is despaired of. I meant, were we going to get the reports or not? And if you will allow me to say so, it worked."

She bought it - thanks heavens, it was after all the stone truth! - but thereafter I was regarded as "high-maintenance." Didn't stop me me getting some consulting work there later, but the moral is, you may have to eat shit sometime, there's no need to mess it in your hair and clothes too.

Zachary Sire said...

People who post 5000-word manifestos in the comments should be shot in the face the end.

UWS guy said...

McCain/Palin motto can be summed up thusly:

America, Fuck Yeah!

You know how to tell if the media is right wing? Nobody said a peep when, in her acceptance speech, Sara Palin bragged about torturing prisoners at the same time calling Obama a pussy.

America, Fuck yeah!

Anonymous said...

"That's not a sexist remark, it's just an old trope. And don't forget, it was Sarah herself who compared herself to a dog last week. Fair game."

Right, she compared herself to a dog in a self-deprecating joke full of upbeat humor and that gives him the right to call her a pig. Impeccable logic. (Also, doesn't that mean he's calling all those other hockey moms pigs, too? Way to win the votes, Obama.)

A better conclusion would be that it gives him the right to call himself a jackass (or is it a donkey?).

Peter Hoh said...

UWS, since it's only Americans who can vote, I think that's a feature, not a bug.

Anonymous said...

"I honestly believe that this election will be a major game change"

I wonder, if the Dems lose this time around, if that means the DLC will make a comeback?

And I wonder if it will have any effect on Nancy Pelosi's career arc? She certainly hasn't set the world on fire so far.

Revenant said...

the makings of a feminist (pro-life, tried to fire a librarian,

What is "un-feminist" about firing somebody? Even if Palin did so in an attempt at censorship -- and evidence for that remains nonexistent as of this writing -- most feminist organizations are vehemently pro-censorship. Indeed, several of the books on that "banned" list Kilkenny's passing around were banned in response to feminist outrage. Others, like Huckleberry Finn, were banned as a result of left-wing outrage at the portrayal of blacks.

on tape calling the war God's plan

As others have pointed out to you, she is "on tape" asking people to pray that the soldiers were being sent to war in accordance with God's plan. I know you're bright enough to tell the difference between "praying that X is true" and "saying, in a prayer, that X is true", so your continued promotion of this story can only be explained as dishonesty.

Does it matter to Paglia that Palin has been misstating things, repeatedly, in that same recycled convention speech, that is now the stump speech, every day?

Maybe she's bright enough to realize that all politicians do that, Obama, Biden, McCain, and, yes, Palin included. How many times did Obama peddle the lie that McCain wanted to fight a hundred-year war, for example.

Is lying about your record a feminist trait?

Well, most of the leading feminists have done it at one time or another. Just try finding information about Susan B. Anthony's racism or Margaret Sanger's support for eugenics on a feminist site, for example.

But it would be more accurately described as a politician's trait.

Revenant said...

McCain/Palin motto can be summed up thusly: America, Fuck Yeah!

You mean our next President might actually think this is the greatest country in the world? What a terrifying thought.

Kirk Parker said...

"[Titus] is probably just traveling."

Or maybe somebody pinched his loaf.


One minor correction: it wasn't months of recounting, just a week or two, but otherwise it occurred pretty much as you described: keep recounting until the Right Person™ wins. (Who was not, ironically, on the "right".)

I'm Full of Soup said...

Even the internets are closed at this time of night.

I need to go get some coffee and breakfast - bacon & eggs -cholesterol is a bit low.

Alex said...

For Palin water carriers:

So she totally championed the bridge while running for Governor to win the election, then when the lower 48 states rebelled against it, she was against it. Good that she opposed it in the end, but how can she call herself a real reformer when the rubber hit the road in the 2006 election she pandered for votes. I'm still voting for McCain/Palin because Obama might literally mean the end of America. But I'm holding my nose.

I'm just saying that THE fundamental selling point of Sarah Palin is "She's a new kind of reforming Republican that takes on her own party and fights pork at every turn". Well, apparently it's a lie.

Anonymous said...

It sure looks like the latest poll results have the lib posters in a frenzy. Their desperation drips from every nonsensical, inane post.

Obama is coming unglued, as is evident by his need to debate Bill O'Reilly (he refused to appear on any Fox program while he was ahead in the polls, remember?).

The lipstick comment was deliberate. It was spoken by a guy who is a Harvard educated lawyer; one who knows very well the importance of words. It should help drive more female voters to McCain/Palin.

Obama/Biden campaign, RIP.

EnigmatiCore said...

Reader_iam, I may have to revise and extend the remarks I made earlier, to which you had so flatteringly agreed.

Jim Geraghty reports that the precise bill Obama supported had the following in its text:

"Each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV."

As such, I have to amend my list.

1) It was a bill aimed at preventing sexual abuse of kindergartners
2) And also teaching them about how to prevent sexually transmitted diseases among other aspects of comprehensive sex education.

When I step back and look at it now, I don't see the same 'one side omits half the equation and the other side omits the other half'. I think the inclusion of discussion of condoms makes it very hard to argue in good faith that the bill was merely about trying to prevent sexual abuse among kindergartners.

Although the rest of my comments still apply. Wrong level to be talking about this, make it available but opt-in, etc.

Alex said...

Michael_H :

what about Palin's claims to be a genuine reformer when she supported the "Bridge to Nowhere"?

Revenant said...

Good that she opposed it in the end, but how can she call herself a real reformer when the rubber hit the road in the 2006 election she pandered for votes.

If one can only be a "real reformer" if one's past is completely devoid of political compromise then there will never be any reform in politics.

I'm just saying that THE fundamental selling point of Sarah Palin is "She's a new kind of reforming Republican that takes on her own party and fights pork at every turn". Well, apparently it's a lie.

I haven't heard any Palin supporters claim that she has always been against every pork project she has ever encountered, although with all the tens of millions of supporters out there I'm sure some of them believe it. The more common claim is that she's a reformer, which she is. She's not perfect, but who is?

Peter Hoh said...

EnigmatiCore at 5:45 a.m.: I taught 4th grade at a church-related school. Back in 1992 or 1993, we began to teach the kids universal precautions. I.e. don't do the "blood brothers" ritual that you sometimes see in movies or on TV, avoid contact with someone else's blood, etc.

It had nothing to do with condoms, but everything to do with stopping the spread of HIV.

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