June 22, 2005

"If you want to be the next president, it's time to start running..."

"...unless your name is Hillary Rodham Clinton or John McCain."
According to AP political writer Ron Fournier, now is the brief window of opportunity. Joe Biden "gets it," along with a few others.
McCain and Clinton will [try to] stay out of the fray for months — better to avoid the glare and grind as long as possible.
Seems to me McCain is jumping into the spotlight. He did a whole hour of "Meet the Press" on Sunday and talked about wanting to be President, even as he coyly declined to speculate about who he'd pick for VP.
If he seeks the presidency, McCain's challenge would be maintain his appeal to moderates while highlighting in the GOP nomination fight his support of Bush on Iraq and the war on terrorism.
I'm prepared to read that stock observation at least a thousand times in the next year or so. Am I already weary of the next election? Can't we let a year pass before we gear up again? I think it's that we like to talk about politics, but it's too much trouble to analyze issues in any sort of substantive way. It's so much more our thing to talk about personalities. Tom Cruise is acting strange... Biden is trying to look like a candidate...


DaveG said...

"His appeal to moderates?"

Guess I have to re-define myself again as I considered myself a moderate right up until a few seconds ago when I learned that McCain was supposed to appeal to me. The McCain-Feingold Act alone was enough to convince me that I'd never vote for him, and nothing more recent has done a thing to sway my opinion.

Crank said...

Of course, unlike Hillary, McCain isn't in the commanding position of a front-runner - if you held the primaries today, he might lose to Rudy or (if she ran) Condi Rice or (though he's definitely not running) Jeb Bush. And unlike Hillary, McCain's appeal is not principally to his own party's base.

In other words, the "keep quiet and bide your time" strategy won't work as well for him.

Paul said...

I won't start my McCain tirade, suffice to say he'll get no support from me. At one time he would have.
I'm in total support about presidential elections. "There oughta be a law" that one cannot start until a year before the expiration of the current term, maybe even six months. If we can't know a candidate's positions in that time we never will.

Dave said...

I can't believe that Rudy would stand a chance.

He's too friendly to gays, and there is too much animosity toward gays in this country for him to overcome that friendliness.

Odd that friendliness to a particular group would prove an insurmountable obstacle, but that's the nature of the conservative right.

tiggeril said...

Good god, can't they at least wait until 2006 or 2007? My lefty friends have just now started speaking to me again.

Miranda said...

Can't we get through the mid-term congressional races? Ugh. Besides, I just made up with all my righty friends and I'd like to maximize the amount of good times I can have with them.

I like Hillary, but I don't think she stands a chance getting elected. After four terms of very polarizing figures, we need someone who can truly reach out to the "other side."

Not like that person will get much in the way of $$ from either the lefty or righty base. Oh, well. I'll just keeping living in the utopia in my head while this circus plays itself out for the next three years.

chuck_b said...

Michael Totten's conducting a poll if you're interested... Lots of good comments already up.

I think presidential campaigns are fun and interesting and exciting, so I'm ready. Besides--like it or not--the train is leaving the station. I say, Let's Go!

I'm not saying this early interest is a good thing...I'm saying I find it irresistible. Christmas advertising in October--now that I can do with out.

chuck_b said...

Personally, I think (well, I hope) it's Giuliani's to lose.

Giuliani versus Clinton all the way.

People, including primary voters, like Giuliani more than they dislike gays. That's my vibe.

People want someone who's been tested that they trust. What aspirant to the presidency--since the first three--has been tested like Giuliani?

Heck, the founding fathers had it easy in comparison. They all had each other, with months and years of planning, development, etc.

Giuliani proved himself all at once, in the crunch (putting it mildly), on television, in front of the world.

He's a cinch.

Goesh said...

We want Howie! We want Howie! The gift that just keeps on giving to the GOP.

Dave said...

Giuliani is also pro-choice, anti-death penalty, etc. Primary voters in both parties are the parties' ideologues.

I don't see Giuliani's record helping him among the activist voters in the Republican party.

It's a mistake to conclude he can win national election.

chuck_b said...

The right has reconciled itself to a long fight against abortion. That means it goes back to the states first, where it's less of a federal question.

The death penalty is losing favor all over the place.

Gay issues are dynamic and will look very different 4 years from now. The generation gap on that issue is widening and it won't tighten up.

Giuliani can win.

Dave said...

Leland: I just read that Weekly Standard article. I don't understand how it shows that Giuliani can win.

It relates an anecodte about a women's Republican club in CA, whose members like Giuliani.

I wonder how many died in the wool conservative Republicans--rememer the same people who vote in primaries--know enough about Giuliani's social liberalism to make an informed opinion about him.

Look, I'll be the first to admit that I'd rather have Giuliani as President than pretty much anyone else. I think it's too far-fetched, however.

Finally, I question any conclusion Hewitt reaches about anything. Especially politics.

Dave said...

Apologies for the typos.

A number of my keys are sticking.

Canned air arrives via UPS tomorrow...

chuck_b said...

Hi Dave,

I can't "prove" Giuliani will win. I'm rooting for him so I'm saying that he will.

I'm bullish because I think the case is strong; you may disagree.

We shall see! :)

TopCat said...

I was a big McCain supporter, and am really saddened that he has thrown his carreer away on this fibiuster nonsense. As for those who think that Guilani has a cnance, I think you must be smoking some wild green stuff. I don't see how the country club set in Ohio, let alone the born again Yaboos in Texas, would deal with a candidate who's wife starred in The Vagina Monologues on Broadway.

Michael said...

Giuliani has no chance of making it out of the Republican primaries.
Let me be clear, as a die-hard New Yorker, I credit him with saving my city. Many people don't realize how terrible New York was to live in until he came to power and saved the city. Although he has
real credibility as a fiscal conservative and a pro law enforcement stance, he will be savaged on the social issue front.
He is pro abortion and pro gay marriage. Also when his opponents
start running ads featuring him in drag, it is going to alianate many people in the reddest of red states. I think he would make an excellent President I don't see it happening.

Freeman Hunt said...

I'm still in "let's draft Condi" mode.

Chris said...

One of the reasons that Condi is being quietly groomed to assume the mantle of Bush's successor is that the Bush people realize that Rove's McKinley Project must follow a War President with a unifying figure. In order to have any hope of consolidating the position of the Republican Party as the dominant political party well into the early 21st Century, a figure like Rice must emerge to break the back of the Democratic coalition. The people at the White House and the RNC aren't idiots. They know that blow dried hairpiece types like Allen, Frist, or Mitt Romney simply don't do this. Only Rice can go into the black churches and force Hillary Clinton to fight a defensive struggle across the entire nation for what should be her basest of Base Voters.

Do not believe the "I never wanted to run for class president" denials. That's what you say when you're Secretary of State and you don't want every other question to be about abortion and the Nuclear Option. You just say that all you want to do is help the President run his foreign policy.

One of the reasons Rice doesn't put herself forward right now is that it's too damn early. Familiarity breeds contempt. Hillary is going in too damn early, too damn quickly. She's doing this to soak up all the Donk money early, of course. But enough money will be left to allow one or two challengers to play the Bill Bradley role. That's what no one sees. There will be a rebellion against the Clinton Coronation by the Deaniac/Michael Moore coalition. They are extremely well funded and do not need overwhelming amounts of money to damage the Clintons.

Rice will not make this mistake, especially with Karen Hughes as her message boss (who, by the way, knows very little Arabic). Those who are ahead in 2005 are not often ahead in 2008. This thing is a marathon, and pacing is everything. Why be the frontrunner now when you can hold back and let some vainglorious idiot like McCain grab the spotlight?