September 17, 2004

Younger voters shift to Bush.

The new Gallup poll shows a huge, recent change in the opinion of voters under age 50:
Kerry had a one-point advantage (48% to 47%) among 18- to 49-year-old voters just before the Republican National Convention, but now Bush enjoys a 13-point lead among this group (54% to 41%). This represents a net increase in Bush's standing of 14 percentage points.

The other two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.
Hmmm.... 18-49 is a pretty large group. Why put three decades of age in that group and only 15 years of age in the "middle age" group? I know some people in their 40s chafe at being called middle aged, but that shouldn't affect Gallup. Anyway, I suppose we should conclude that the convention was well crafted to win over the non-old.

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