"... and raced to reopen federal agencies in 2018, as their more moderate members demanded a fast resolution after only three days. This shutdown could be different. The Democrats from red states who decried the shutdown strategy as a foolish miscalculation and pressed for an immediate reversal in the showdown with President Trump seven years ago are long gone. The ideological makeup of the party has shifted to the left, and Democrats are now bracing for an extended confrontation with the White House and congressional Republicans, despite the clear political risks. The same dynamic is at play in the G.O.P., which has lurched to the right under Mr. Trump and no longer sees room for compromise."
Writes Carl Hulse, in
"Democrats See No Need to Capitulate, Nor Republicans to Cut a Deal/The last time Senate Democrats found themselves taking the blame for a government shutdown, they quickly caved. That’s less likely to happen now" (NYT).
How does spending some time in shutdown achieve anything? Doesn't everyone know everything they need to know before the shutdown even begins? Are they just waiting to annoy and otherwise torment us so they can then poll us to see who we blame? I think they already know that everyone blames the party they started out disliking more. Nevertheless, we must endure the bad political theater.
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66 comments:
The best part of a real shutdown will be to demonstrate just how little our government does that is beneficial for Americans.
Hopefully there are 100,000 fewer government employees next time it starts back up.
I follow the news, and I have no idea why the D's are refusing to pass the budget. Some claim its because of health care issues but the R's disagree and say its about medicare for illegal aliens.
Its all tedious and boring and can laid at the door of the Senate Republicans who persist in allowing a Filibuster of budgetary issues. Some things arent covered by the filibuster but other things are. Its incredibly stupid, since the Senate R's are always too gutless to shut down the Government over anything.
Hey, what's going on? This reporter isn't doing the de rigueur BS.
Trump suggests he could make 'irreversible' cuts if the government shuts down
It sounds like Trump thinks there’s benefit in a shutdown for Republicans.
"It sounds like Trump thinks there’s benefit in a shutdown for Republicans."
He's finally getting that congressional authorization the important brains were saying he needed.
This may precipitate the overdue Democratic fracture, as they were resolutely united against Trump and moved in lockstep until Joe Biden's inflation debacle of 2022. But, Democrats historically operate in circular firing squads.
With moderates Manchin, Sinema, and Eric Adams pushed out, and with Tulsi, Joe Rogan, and RFK Jr defecting, a shutdown may lead to the loooooooooooong overdue internal split. This was going to happen with Occupy Wall Street and Tax the 1% and the Bernie Bros vs. Hillary...then TDS united all the Democrats.
A split Democratic Party guarantees total losses for a generation, and they've known it since 2016. Still, I don't see how a group of arch enemies can stay together much longer.
Probably works havoc on tbill ladders.
"It sounds like Trump thinks there’s benefit in a shutdown for Republicans."
Then why is Schumer imposing the shutdown? Everything is in his hands.
So, uh... can we get those mass firings now?
“ the G.O.P., which has lurched to the right under Mr. Trump”
I don’t see any movement (let alone lurching) to the right under Trump. The difference is Trump actually is pursuing traditional Republican talking points.
"The same dynamic is at play in the G.O.P., which has lurched to the right under Mr. Trump and no longer sees room for compromise."
Sure, Jan. Murkowski, Thune, Paul, Lankford, Collins and the rest of the GOP surrender monkeys are virtually John Birch Society members now.
"I don’t see any movement (let alone lurching) to the right under Trump. The difference is Trump actually is pursuing traditional Republican talking points."
This is true. If you take a point in time, say the mid-nineties, and track political changes of the parties since then, both parties have moved leftward. The Republicans slightly and the Democrats bigly. The point has been made by many other talking heads, but policy-wise Trump sounds very much like an Anti-NAFTA centrist Democrat.
@Bob B quote on Trump causing a lurch to the right.
The left is so far over the horizon on the globe of political options that they don't know "right wing" when they see it. They can't tell the difference between left-of-center, center, right-of-center or far-right. When you are at the south pole, everything is north of you.
Trump is rude, crude, and pushy, but that's a standard resident of New York City. But in pushing what is effectively 1990s Clinton "triangulation" today, rude Trump seems right wing. True conservatives would never propose Trump's Santa Claus 2025 budget. Never.
"How does spending some time in shutdown achieve anything? Doesn't everyone know everything they need to know before the shutdown even begins?"
The same could be said about (to take one example) strikes. Yet strikes happen. It's about demonstrating seriousness of purpose by a willingness to absorb pain. The problem is that in this case all of the pain is on the D side.
Anybody else having a craving for Fritos?
Doesn't everyone know everything they need to know before the shutdown even begins?
Both sides live in different realities. One of them needs to be awoken from their fever dream.
Republicans offered a compromise. Dems could have kicked the can 4 weeks down the road. The other compromise isn’t happening because polls say the American people don’t want what the Dems are demanding.
So yes, it is political theater to move the polls. How did that go with Texas redistricting? Oh yeah, Dems caved and nobody but Dems cared.
“Doesn't everyone know everything they need to know before the shutdown even begins?”
No, because they don’t know how strong their position will be relative to the other side’s position once the government shuts down. They can guess but they can’t know.
In any case, last minute deals are the hallmark of how our Congressional budget process has worked for the last twenty years. No one will deal before the last minute. Congress could change that system, but there are lawmakers on both sides who like it the way it is.
The budget battles happen the way they do because senators sometimes need to campaign against their own party to win the next election. Some states are internally nuanced or purple (even Maryland and California), but vote as a monolith with party labels. California has a long history of fiscally conservative "business Democrats," for example.
Are they just waiting to annoy and otherwise torment us so they can then poll us to see who we blame?
Yes, I think Democrats are all in on 'control the narrative' and they view Trump as a disturbing but temporary anomaly. Any moment people are going to go back to eating the dog food we so diligently prepare for them in MSM. What else are Democrats going to do? Capitulate? Change their policies? Never...
I love he idea Trump will wield a hatchet if things are shut down but I'd bet against it in a second...
James K: "The same could be said about (to take one example) strikes. "
This reminded me that Trump, in an Oval presser yesterday, mistakenly referred to the Dem vote as a "strike." As a businessman in a heavily unionized city, he has been through a lot of them. He is probably applying the same psychology and tactics to this thing. CC, JSM
Why should we compromise at the threat of a shutdown? Because Schumer doesn't have to votes to stop anything else except a CR?
CRs have become so routine that this is a stupid hill to die on and Schumer has abdicated his leadership position by negotiating himself and his party into this box canyon. The way out is for Chuck to compromise, but don't ask Trump to save your face. You bought this shutdown and you own it, Schumer.
Lots of moist fingers held aloft.
El Predicto sez: Polls will be designed and published more for purposes of influence more than enlightenment.
Trump suggests he could make 'irreversible' cuts if the government shuts down
This was a clearly articulated warning given before the shutdown. Too bad Schumer ignored it. Cuts made from programs that are unfunded (as most are right now) allow for permanent reductions in Federal workforces. Permanent. We've all known this was a possibility for a week. All Chuck has done is dither, and it's what he does best actually.
I mean Chuckie threw a fit when it came time to "advise and consent" on Budget Director Russell Vought's nomination. You dumb democrats knew he was Chainsaw Russ. WTF. You are where you are by your own making.
"Then why is Schumer imposing the shutdown?"
Because Schummer fears AOC more than he loves Americans.
"Because Schummer fears AOC more than he loves Americans."
I think this is right. More generally, the democrat base is demanding that Schumer "make a stand". But, Schumer should know better.
“We’ve shown the Republicans that they can’t bully us, they can’t bludgeon us,” Schumer told MSNBC.
Why don’t Chuck and the rest of the democrats just say it how it is: Trump’s tax cuts added four trillion to the deficit and now they are coming after your healthcare to keep the government open.
Wouldn't true conservatives welcome the shutdown? Isn't a prime value of conservatism smaller/less federal government. I welcome the shutdown. The federal government is bloated and needs to be trimmed. DOGE tried to fire federal workers and met resistance from the Dems and the courts. Now Trump can shut down unnecessary departments without Dem resistance and presumably the courts interfering.
Democrats can't even keep their lies er talking points straight. Mark Warner says it's a lie that illegals are getting Medicaid but Ro Khanna says that is exactly what the shutdown is for. The bill Schumer submitted for discussion to the White House also listed "reimbursements" to states who imposed costs insuring illegals. A lobbyist named Desiree Townsend says it ALL about reimbursing CA because it will go bankrupt if they don't get a bailout for their illegal medical spending.
How can you negotiate with Republicans in Congress to fund the government when as soon as you reach an agreement you know that Trump’s OMB director will just withhold the funds?
I wonder which story they tell will be true, if any.
There were aspects of the Clinton presidency that rode like a sugar high in the 1990s. He was an excellent communicator and a master of positive vibes. However, with the benefit of hindsight, I think his policy legacy was largely self-serving, and a disaster for both the Democratic Party and the country.
It was Clinton who initiated some of the final blows against the New Deal regime through telecom and banking de-regulation. One of the interesting factoids about the Clinton history is that he and Gingrich were actually negotiating Social Security privatization just before the Lewinsky scandal broke. His embrace of free trade also did significant damage to labor unions.
“…and now they are coming after your healthcare to keep the government open.”
Expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits…
“The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) project that millions of people will see their net premiums more than double, with some losing their coverage entirely.
Impact on health insurance premiums
Average premium increase: KFF estimates that the average premium payment for subsidized enrollees will more than double, rising by 114% from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.”
its a floor wax, its a dessert topping,
it takes a little effort, ross sorkin, nocera ferguson did not even atttempt it, to discover how the Subprime crisis was seeded by the CRA revisions under Clinton, (Morgenstern and Wallison did keep the receipts)
rehajm said...
I love he idea Trump will wield a hatchet if things are shut down but I'd bet against it in a second...
****************
You would have lost that bet:
https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2025/10/federal-government-shuts-down-750k-workers-expected-to-be-furloughed-some-fired.html
Here are some actual cuts, so far:
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/nasa-closes-doors-to-15-000-employees-as-us-government-shutdown-begins
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/dot-to-furlough-over-12000-employees-mostly-from-faa-during-government-shutdown
There is always the possibility that Schumer is setting up the progressives in his party. You think we need this, fine. You’ll get the blame. By now, he must realize the mid-terms aren’t going to follow tradition. If they are lost, then use 2026 to clean your house, because 2028 will be more important anyway.
Whatever the case, here we are and already NYC is taking an $18b economic hit.
You're looking at the wrong end of that horse, Kak. No negotiations can happen while your side is holding America hostage. It's too late to blame Trump. He's followed the law in every step and just given y'all enough room to negotiate in good faith. You have literally given him the one thing he couldn't get without a shutdown: authority to permanently furlough bureaucrats. Yes "mass firing." The one thing that he was restrained from doing for DOGE by law has just been conveniently removed as an obstacle, thanks to Chuck Damn Schumer and his great scheme to uh, well, who knows what he wants. He ain't getting. He's giving.
I love watching the LIV spin here.
No one cares Inga. TLDR. The effects are Democrat's fault. Your party decided illegals matter more than solving American's problems. The effects are your fault. So no one cares who you want to blame.
You would have lost that bet
…I would have protested the decision. Altparse those stories and they refer yo ‘furloughs’- by definition mostly a temporary situations and ‘potential’ firings, ie not fired, at least not yet…
To get to 60 votes the Republicans need to convince Rand Paul to pull his head out of his ass and change his vote to “aye,” plus convince four more Democrats to abandon the party line and also vote “aye.” Normally you’d look towards the 2026 re-elections to be the pressure points to work on Democrat senators, but things look kind of bleak there for the GOP. Nearly all the Democrat senators up for re-election in 2026 are in deep blue states and fear primaries more than the general election. Peters and Shaheen would be vulnerable, but they’ve already decided to retire and “pursue other interests” so they have nothing to lose (and maybe retirement sweeteners to gain) from staying with Schumer. Ossoff, down in Georgia, can be made to feel some pressure, and if the shutdown is sufficiently unpopular plus Glenn Youngkin throws his hat into the race then look for Warner to fold like a cheap suit. But that’s only two votes and we need four.
“No one cares Inga.”
Ohhhh, plenty of MAGAs will care when insurance rates double. Especially those living in poor red states.
be careful you aren’t being manipulated…
Inag, you blame Republicans for healthcare premiums rising, forgetting what the Lightbringer said about his plan to take over the health care system:
Per AI:
"Obama promised that premiums would go ** down** by $2,500 by the end of his first term. This was a campaign promise he made repeatedly when running for president.
What actually happened:
Premiums **increased by about 60%** in the first four years, with ** increases** ranging from $2,524 for individuals aged 31-40 to $12,040 for others So rather than decreasing by $2,500, they went up significantly."
******
So, no bullshit, please, about premiums increasing again, for "subsidized enrollees". It's been a scam from the start--- YOUR politi-cult's scam.
So.. Democrats are "bracing." And Republicans "pouncing?". Ah no..."lurching."
Who will ultimately do the spelunking?
I suspect Dems understand the 6% deficit. They want to look like they care but they know spending has to be cut.
In California, they implemented fiscal rules for Medicaid eligibility that are brutal and they started charging illegals for healthcare.
Republicans control all three branches of government right now. Under normal conditions, it would be easier for Democrats to cut a deal in the minority position. But given the lawlessness of this administration and the way it is handling money right now, and politically motivated prosecutions, along with Trump's threats of further retribution, Trump is providing the Democrats with an unlimited number of reasons to say "no".
I could have sworn there were some massive tax cuts that could be trimmed slightly… I am probably wrong though. Those billionaires need that extra money — they can barely afford a third yacht.
The one thing that he was restrained from doing for DOGE by law has just been conveniently removed as an obstacle
We begged you not to throw us into the briar patch.
The tragedy is government spending counts as GDP. Cut the budget and you’re the Mayor of shark city trying to save August…
@Mike (MJR Wolf) on dreams of PERMANENT federal staff reductions with a shutdown.
Think for a minute about the tortured One Big Beautiful Bill and how the establishment/center/soft Republicans resisted cuts just a few months ago. They hold the purse strings, and set the size of the future federal workforce and benefits through the laws they pass and what they choose to fund. If the government requires that job X be done, someone must be paid to do it.
If Trump (and previously DOGE) truly wanted to cut the federal budget, they'd start with military Veterans Preference and get rid of the 600,000 marginally qualified veterans who receive generous lifetime benefits/jobs after a few years of service. That's the lowest hanging fruit, but that fruit is more likely to vote Republican.
When there is a government shut down something like 60% of the government continues to operate. If we don't notice the 40% that stops operating then why do we need it at all.
So, stupid question here: What is the consensus? How far away are we from a return to 'regular order', where budgets are worked up, discussed, made into a bill, and after passing through Congress are sent to the President for signature?
And how far away are we from a balanced budget?
My local YMCA has gone to the effort of telling me that they're "standing strong" with federal employees through the shutdown, by providing them with "financial assistance." So:
The government pays my Medicare insurer, which pays the Y so I can walk on a treadmill occasionally instead of walking outside. Now the Y wants to give the money to a federal employee.
The senators for Maryland and Virginia are all Democrats. If OMB really does start mass firings, they will face a lot of pressure from the federal workers among their constituents to make it stop.
Clem 'rights come from the government' Kaine or Mark warner
The short clean CR is needed to give regular order budgeting time to wrap up. If the dems want to negotiate healthcare, just start negotiating healthcare in the regular bill. Why hold the govt hostage like a two years old in a tantrum? Their position makes no sense except for the fact that Schumer made his team livid last March and now he’s trying to regain their backing. Far too late, I imagine.
How did we get to a place where two people from NYC, which itself is speeding toward communistic rule, are able to hijack our Fed govt in order to force us to fund healthcare for the rest of the world, aka any illegal that finds themselves here? I blame the bartender.
“If Trump (and previously DOGE) truly wanted to cut the federal budget, they'd start with military Veterans Preference and get rid of the 600,000 marginally qualified veterans who receive generous lifetime benefits/jobs after a few years of service. That's the lowest hanging fruit, but that fruit is more likely to vote Republican.”
If Veteran’s benefits would get cut there would be a massive outcry, from both the right and the left. My daughter is one of those Veterans who gets her retirement pay (she served 22 years)and disability benefits. Being in Afghanistan for a year and inhaling that poison from the smoke pits got her a 100% disability. Plus she is now working at a sedentary job helping Veterans get their benefits. Her fellow Veteran employees will not be happy if their benefits get cut.
Cut some billionaires’ benefits first before touching our Veterans.
Virginia has an off-year election cycle for governor in 2025 -- the campaign is now underway. It could go for cookie-cutter blue suburban soccer mom Abigail Spam Burger, or it could go for the black female Weirdo Earle-Sears Roebuck.
Spam Burger comes across to me as bluer Liz Cheney. Sears Roebuck...ahhhhhhhhh...whatever????? Are they throwing her out as ideology-bait for blue voters: black and female checks the intersectional hierarchy for sure.
The shutdown should motivate blue voters in just one month. Politico predicted this last February. I think Weirdo is going down and a red governorship will turn blue.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/12/trump-democrats-virginia-bureacracy-00203845
The larger point is that the government is already shut down, and has been for several months, as the Trump administration initiated an assault on this system of government. Activities deemed “essential” by the president—stalking immigrants, lobbing missiles at Iran, etc.—have gone on. Still, activities purported to conflict with the president’s policies, regardless of whether they have been authorized by the United States' lawmaking body, have been stopped, interrupted only by occasional federal court rulings that doing so is illegal, which the Supreme Court subsequently dismisses.
The shutdown can certainly be used rhetorically to justify more firings, but they’re just the same firings with a different rationale, one that is no more legal or legitimate than before. Of course, “legal” and “legitimate” are loaded words given the rubber-stampers at the Supreme Court.
@Inga: If Veteran’s benefits would get cut there would be a massive outcry, from both the right and the left.
Veterans hold 600,000 federal jobs. You've nailed the real-world politics here -- Veterans Preference is a third rail. You can't have small government and gift jobs too.
Tag: Trump's 2025 budget is not a conservative budget
Smoke pits=burn pits.
whos' the weirdo, the one who wants men in women's locker rooms, but spanberger's the company girl, who a bucket of ballots saved her seat last time,
“You can't have small government and gift jobs too.”
Gift jobs? My daughter is doing essential work making the lives of those who served our country better. She served for 22 years and her lungs are affected as well as having sustained a serious knee injury while active duty that needed surgery. Who is more deserving, billionaires or our Veterans?
@narciso: I'm just playing with their names.
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