Althouse: Sunrise — 6:35, 7:05.

October 8, 2025

Sunrise — 6:35, 7:05.

In the sunrise café, you can talk all night.

44 comments:

Humperdink said...: Jay Jones, Virginia AG candidate: “Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot,” Jones wrote. “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.”

Luke 6:45: “The good person out of the good treasure of his heart brings forth what is good; and the evil person out of the evil treasure brings forth what is evil; for his mouth speaks from that which fills his heart.”; 10/8/25, 7:26 PM
Iman said...: They’ve run out of gimmicks
It should be farewell
But maybe they'll come back
To Earth, who can tell?
I guess there is one guy to blame
They’re melting down (melting down)
Will things ever be the same again?
It's the Schumer Shutdown
The Schumer Shutdown

h/t Europe; 10/8/25, 7:28 PM
rehajm said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/8/25, 7:33 PM
bagoh20 said...: Just a friendly reminder that Nasdaq is up ~50% from just 6 months ago, when Trump was just starting to destroy the economy, the stock market, and world trade according to our well-credentialed expert friends who refuse to seek help for their mental disorder. That's 100% per year for those in Yorba Linda. I'm not claiming I knew this would happen. I'm just saying they didn't either, but they're convinced they are really smart and we should all listen to them.; 10/8/25, 7:33 PM
rehajm said...: It has been 2 days without an Trump Shouldn’t Meme Sombreros post on this blog site; 10/8/25, 7:34 PM
rehajm said...: A valuable secret you will ignore: Only two things determine stock valuations: earnings and assets…; 10/8/25, 7:36 PM
rehajm said...: When is Louisiana v Callais? That one’s gonna sting…; 10/8/25, 7:38 PM
bagoh20 said...: Additionally, that SOB in the White House apparently discovered the root cause of illegal immigration that everyone was looking for last administration. Lowest incursions since the mid-70's.

Also, I think today makes 8 wars ended in 8 months in office. That bastard is going to put the killing business out of business. More hard-working people put out of work by his reckless and heartless policies. Wake up, people!; 10/8/25, 7:40 PM
bagoh20 said...: Total earnings increase for all companies listed in the Nasdaq 4/3/25 thru 10/8/25 = 24%.
Total increase in assets = 8.4%
~according to Grok; 10/8/25, 7:51 PM
Leland said...: Bagoh20 comment is verified by my retirement fund. Though, truth be told, my TSLA shares did much better.; 10/8/25, 7:56 PM
bagoh20 said...: I have no idea what makes stock prices go up or down. I just know they always go up eventually. I also have no idea why Althouse will photograph the sunrise tomorrow, but I wish I could make a wager on it.; 10/8/25, 8:01 PM
Enigma said...: @bagoh2o:

While Nasdaq recovered well after the initial Trump 2025 tariff panic, it's not the star of 2025. International stocks came back from the dead and perhaps started another round of their historic 10-year outperformance cycle:

* Nasdaq is up 19.51% year to date.
* VEA (developed Europe/Asia) is up 27.49% year to date.
* Even the long stinky VWO (Emerging Markets) is beating Nasdaq this year, as it's up 25.20%.

Trees do not grow to the moon. Tech firm investors routinely want to believe this, but consider the slow declines of GE, IBM, the near death of Apple, etc.; 10/8/25, 8:01 PM
Iman said...: These lying, thieving Democrats continue to struggle with their current situation. They deserve everything bad coming their collective way. Feck ‘em!; 10/8/25, 8:03 PM
bagoh20 said...: My point is that the disaster many were absolutely convinced of and seemed to be wishing for is as late in coming as the cure for TDS.; 10/8/25, 8:07 PM
Iman said...: Here’s a decent meme, rehajm:

https://x.com/MAGADevilDog/status/1975997031975211431?s=19; 10/8/25, 8:08 PM
bagoh20 said...: For the record, I mostly invest in indexes. Individual stocks are for people who think they know stuff.; 10/8/25, 8:09 PM
Gospace said...: Humperdink said...
Jay Jones, Virginia AG candidate: “Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot,” Jones wrote. “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.”

I was going to post this with the notation- 300,000 early votes already received in Virginia- that cannot be changed. How many people want to change their votes? And can't?

Why election day should be election DAY, and not election week or month.; 10/8/25, 8:11 PM
Enigma said...: @bagoh2o:

My point is that Trump may have turned investors' eyes toward international options and...shot himself in the foot. US stocks outperformed international stocks for the last decade, but there's only so much juice to squeeze from the current big firms. Without Bitcoin, then Biden's green subsidies (e.g., Musk's Tesla), and now AI, Nasdaq would likely fall back 50%. Tech stocks fly high but tend to be extremely volatile.

Trump had zero to do with normal tech volatility, and little influence on the US vs. international performance cycle.; 10/8/25, 8:13 PM
Gospace said...: BTW, has anyone lost power or anything now that the government is shut down? Anyone know anyone suffering and/or dying because of it? I don't.; 10/8/25, 8:19 PM
bagoh20 said...: I don't disagree, Enigma. I don't think Trump or any other President has much effect. People with money need to invest it. They have lots of different reasons, information and emotions, but in the end, everybody knows cash erodes, and they can't fit it all their mattress or a coffee can, so it always comes back.; 10/8/25, 8:22 PM
bagoh20 said...: I would never vote early. Your guy could drop out, drop acid, or drop dead.; 10/8/25, 8:24 PM
Original Mike said...: bagoh20 said..."Just a friendly reminder that Nasdaq is up ~50% from just 6 months ago, when Trump was just starting to destroy the economy, the stock market, and world trade"

That bastard, Trump!; 10/8/25, 8:27 PM
Kakistocracy said...: "For the record, I mostly invest in indexes. Individual stocks are for people who think they know stuff."

Nowhere near bubble territory as my mother has not yet mentioned AI to me as a potential investment.../s

I think that the pandemic interrupted the usual boom bust cycle.

There were artificially induced recessions as leaders around the world ordered economic activity to cease on health grounds.

That was coupled with a huge amount of monetary stimulus from central banks.

Those actions may have prolonged the normal lifecycle of a bubble which may have been reaching its bursting point.

In addition to the huge monetary stimulus, the pandemic also saw an unprecedented level of fiscal stimulus that was completely off the charts in terms of historical precedence.

And that massive fiscal stimulus continues to be pumped even today into major economies, even as monetary policy is already in auto-pilot towards much more easing.

I’d been thinking that it’s been a long time since the GFC in 2008/2009 but really the reset was 2020/2021 and we perhaps ought to measure growth from there.

FWIW: VOO, VFIAX have served me well for quite awhile. I also have DODFX in my mixed (defensive) portfolio which does quite well as the USD is being devalued.; 10/8/25, 8:36 PM
William50 said...: From last nights open thread....

Rusty said...

William50 said...
"Anyone here familiar with the Jefferson (Wisconsin) Sportsman Club? It's been about 10 years since I shot trap but I have the itch to get back into it. Open shooting is only open for about 2 more weeks but I was thinking about joining next spring."

How good were you before? I'm terrible at it. I'm was a consistent 12 -15. I'm using a Rem.870 with a 28 inch barrel and a full choke. Since I changed chokes I'm a consistent 15-17. I'm better at skeet. You'll have fun.

I was a pretty consistent 20-22. My best ever was a 23. I couldn't take the pressure and missed the last 2 clays by a mile. I use my trusty '80 Remington 1100 with Improved Modified choke ( my only sport shotgun.) I shot as an alternate on a team at North Bristol. I actually have shot more sporting clays. Waaay more fun. Used to shoot at Milford Hills and Lake Mills Conservation (no longer in existence). My wife used to keep score for me when I shot sporting clays at Milford Hills. Unfortunately they priced me out of their facilities. that's pretty much when I quit shooting, I would guess about 10 - 11 years ago.; 10/8/25, 8:53 PM
Jaq said...: "Only two things determine stock valuations: earnings and assets…"

If only.; 10/8/25, 8:55 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: "something somebody dreamt up and others went along with"

Pretty sneaky sis.; 10/8/25, 8:59 PM
rehajm said...: ...an undergraduate finance prof taught a class called simply Investments His final class he handed out charts of the major averages, which are…self explanatory. Also some advice: you will become an expert in your field…when I graduated I desperately wanted to work for Jack Meyer who said index unless you think an investment will beat the index. I didn’t get to work for him but those two bits together were quite valuable to me….

…the Investments prof also spent three classes slowly explaining why Bank of New England was in big trouble. I didn’t learn the lesson we were receiving. Had I shorted the week we talked about it I could have paid for undergrad tuition 🧐…; 10/8/25, 9:01 PM
Iman said...: If this suspect (Jonathan Rinderknecht) in the Palisades Fire, who the authorities seem to have dead to rights, is the responsible party, I think he deserves the death penalty.

Too bad we’re in Calunicornia.; 10/8/25, 9:01 PM
rehajm said...: If only

See? Told ya…; 10/8/25, 9:01 PM
Iman said...: The President has 5 kids, 3 baby mamas, lives in government housing, has a mugshot, and yet the liberals still hate him.

—— The Lioness (@CL4WS_OUT); 10/8/25, 9:09 PM
bagoh20 said...: I don't have enough to get excited about, but gold is up 52% YTD! Over $4000/oz these days, which, just a couple years ago, seemed impossible.
I bought a bunch of gold bars a few years ago when it was at $1600, and then gave them away as gifts for Christmas and birthdays. I told the recipients to hang on to them. I wonder how many did.; 10/8/25, 9:10 PM
rehajm said...: Oh, and I think I managed to get the Woolite out of the back of the car but I was putting all my cleanup supplies in one of those super durable lawn bags and left it one the garage floor. This morning it looked like the effing soap ate thru the bag like a magnesium round…; 10/8/25, 9:11 PM
Jaq said...: "See? Told ya…"

You didn't mention time horizons.; 10/8/25, 9:11 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Big if true: UK has arrested over 12,000 people over online posts.; 10/8/25, 9:12 PM
rehajm said...: Where’d they get the resources to arrest that many people…; 10/8/25, 9:14 PM
Jaq said...: Or define the scope of the term "valuation" for the purposes of your statement.; 10/8/25, 9:14 PM
William50 said...: To continue on my comments from last night to Rusty...
Back when I lived in Washington ('76 - '03) I hunted pheasant at the Smith Farm release site on Camano Island. I don't know, is it still there? Anyway, I would go there after noon (after the morning madhouse shooting spree) with my trusty hunting buddy Jenny my Springer. She was by far and away the best pheasant hunter in the state of Washington. I cannot count the number of times we arrived at the hunting site and would meet hunters leaving that would tell me there were no pheasant. Jenny and I would spend the next 2-3 hours slowly covering the fields and we always limited. Always used my trusty Remington1100. Damn, I miss that dog. She was also my daughter's best friend when my daughter was just a little girl.; 10/8/25, 9:18 PM
Jaq said...: The Europeans are planning to blockade the Baltic. They have cooked up some thin pretexts to start seizing tankers carrying Russian oil. Obviously nobody bought the drone false flags. Blockades are an act of war, but they are non-kinetic. The purpose is to draw Russia into a kinetic response, then they can claim that Russia started it, and draw the US into WWIII! All over who rules over some Russian speakers in territory that had been Russian for centuries.

In WWI, prior to Pearl Harbor, we had an oil blockade going against Japan, and we had seized Japanese assets in the US, and then we left our fleet, except for the aircraft carriers, which we knew we would be needing, as a fat juicy target in Pearl Harbor. The playbook for getting your country to go along with a war doesn't have that many plays, but they work.; 10/8/25, 9:21 PM
Jaq said...: Sorry, WWII, obviously.; 10/8/25, 9:22 PM
Jupiter said...: I've been thinking about what happens when someone decides to "develop" a tract of land. That they own. First, there's a bunch of surveyors, and groups of men in suits talking with men in hardhats. Then one day, there's bulldozers. And if you are a rabbit, or a vole, or a skink, or a ... Anyway, if you are one of the little critters, it is time to get out of Dodge. Because you can't dodge a bulldozer.
Now, this is pretty obvious. Like, dead obvious. So, why are the little critters in Maui and Malibu having such a hard time getting the picture?; 10/8/25, 9:23 PM
Gospace said...: Lem Vibe Bandit said...
Big if true: UK has arrested over 12,000 people over online posts.

They also arrested someone for burning a koran- and let the person go who stabbed the koran burner because he was entitled to stab someone who insulted islam in that way. Well, given a suspended sentence- another way of saying received no punishment. Google AI summary:
The incident and trial
The burning: Coskun, a 50-year-old man, set fire to the Quran and shouted anti-Islam statements while protesting outside the consulate in Knightsbridge.
The assault: During the protest, 59-year-old Moussa Kadri attacked Coskun with a knife. Kadri was given a suspended prison sentence after pleading guilty to assault and possessing a bladed article.
The verdict: In June 2025, a judge found Coskun guilty of a religiously aggravated public order offense. The judge stated that Coskun's behavior was "highly provocative" and motivated by "hatred of followers of the religion". Coskun was fined £240 and ordered to pay a surcharge.; 10/8/25, 9:25 PM
Kakistocracy said...: You should ask what to value stocks relative to. If it’s the US dollar they look expensive. If they’re valued relative to the Swiss franc they look less expensive, and relative to gold it might be argued that they’re cheap.

I.e. the real story is perhaps the devaluation of the US dollar.; 10/8/25, 9:25 PM
Original Mike said...: Jaq said..."The Europeans are planning to blockade the Baltic."

When will this start, Jaq?; 10/8/25, 9:30 PM
Big Mike said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/8/25, 9:31 PM