Here's a Cato Institute description of the Fox Butterfield Effect:
A former reporter for the New York Times, Fox Butterfield, became a bit of a laughingstock in the 1990s for publishing a series of articles addressing the supposed quandary of how crime rates could be falling during periods when prison populations were expanding. A number of critics sarcastically explained that crimes rates were falling because bad guys were behind bars and invented the term “Butterfield Effect” to describe the failure of someone to put 2 + 2 together.
There's also this WaPo headline: "ICE struggles to boost arrest numbers despite infusion of resources/Trump has ordered a wartime effort to increase deportations, but ICE statistics show arrests have dipped so far this month." It's harder to say Fox Butterfield Effect about that.
“I’m not happy. We need more‚” Tom Homan, Trump’s designated “border czar,” said Thursday on Newsmax. He did not respond to a request for comment.The top two enforcement officials at ICE were removed from their jobs this week and reassigned due to what Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem said was a lack of “results.”...
ICE spent weeks leading up to Inauguration Day preparing target lists of people they could arrest during the opening salvo of Trump’s promised crackdown. Those target lists have been depleted, and with so many officers working six or even seven days a week, the agency has had little time to do the research, surveillance and planning required to rebuild them and coordinate arrests, according to current and former ICE officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the strains....
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It wasn't "a number of critics" who labeled the "Fox Butterfield effect," in which cause-and-effect was confused with paradox. It was James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal. He would headline a blurb about an example of that sort of thing with "Fox Butterfield, Is That You?" It was one of those running jokes which became funnier with repetition. Taranto got promoted to the WSJ's editorial board; I miss his nearly daily presence in the "Best of the Web" column, which continues on without him, just not quite as funny as before.
Maybe they should start in university physics departments. Sabine Hossenfelder describes a letter which she received telling her that she shouldn't criticize irreproducible junk physics papers, because academia is the only way that many of these people can obtain visas into the US and the that they need the government grants to feed their families, "this is the system." If standards were ever set that required actual quality in this Federally funded research, many people would lose their jobs, and be forced to return to their home countries, and what suggestion does Dr Hossenfelder have for employment for them?
https://youtu.be/shFUDPqVmTg?si=kadluHXQ6xoclBG9
In other words, "We can't have standards in Physics! How will we keep our phony baloney jobs?!?!"
Hossenfelder has been doing video after video examining nonsense papers that get published in journals. Now we know why they continue to be published.
Wapo improperly equates arrests with deportations. With a headline that bad, I usually do not waste time reading further.
Yes, it will get harder to find people who are here illegally. That's what the word "hiding" means.
So American physics is utterly corrupted by people looking to facilitate and subsidize immigration. Good luck competing with Russia, which graduates as many scientists as we do, but without the B.S. we require, let alone China, which graduates far more. Is it any wonder we are so far behind both of them in hypersonic missile tech, for example?
Sabine Hossenfelder doesn't recognize crap science in climate change. Not her field, probably.
The speed limit is 55 but everyone's been cruising along at 65 for miles and then all of a sudden everyone starts hitting their brakes and sure enough you soon come up to the police car parked on the median strip just sitting there.
"Sabine Hossenfelder doesn't recognize crap science in climate change."
I think she is coming around.
If standards were ever set that required actual quality in this Federally funded research, many people would lose their jobs, and be forced to return to their home countries, and what suggestion does Dr Hossenfelder have for employment for them?
That one brought back bad memories, because back in the mid-1970s my wife accidentally overheard her dissertation advisor — the man who was supposed to be mentoring her as she did her research! — tell another male faculty member “if you give a Ph.D. to a woman she’ll just take a job from some man who needs to feed his family. The rot in academia is of long standing. (She got a new advisor but she had to start over from scratch on a whole new dissertation project.)
"Best of the Web" was James Taranto. But all things must change; we must accept. Same feeling when Thomas Sowell's columns stopped coming. Ice cold logic and warm humor. Althouse is in that class. Even signature memes: "garner," "large boulder the size of a small boulder."
So, comprehensive immigration reform wasn't really needed to enforce the border. All that was needed was enforcement.
If we’re paying for illegals hotels, don’t we know where they are already?
Major ICE raids were planned in New York and Colorado, but the targeted criminals were tipped off ahead of time and got away. In Colorado the evidence is claimed to point to the tipster being an FBI agent, so we need Kash Patel on board to start cleaning house quickly.
Did the WaPo folks ever express concern about what those 20,000 National Guard troops were going to do back in the beginning of Biden's term?
Breezy said…”If we’re paying for illegals hotels, don’t we know where they are already?” Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
I suspect that the drug cartels are still working at strength at the border.
Garner is the new kerfuffle.
It wasn't "a number of critics" who labeled the "Fox Butterfield effect," in which cause-and-effect was confused with paradox. It was James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal
Jeez Louise. Is the WaPo run by teenagers not old enough to remember Taranto or just lazy now that government funding is drying up?
Vance just tore the WSJ a new one, BTW. I love that man.
Because the Soros shuffle is over.
The millions that came in under Biden, did not walk across Mexico. They were transported.Probably with the help of USAID - or something like it.
Send the ICE agents to the immigration protests. Without USAID funding a rent-a-mob, most of the protestors may well be illegals. Just start scooping them up. Two positive things will happen, a bunch of illegals will get free transport home and the protests will probably stop.
The top two enforcement officials at ICE were removed from their jobs this week and reassigned due to what Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem said was a lack of “results.”...
THIS is one of the things we desperately needed - someone being removed for failing at their job. NO ONE got fired or demoted under Biden.
Also, both the reassigned officials were installed during the Biden regime - perhaps as Deep Stater's they were deliberately failing at their job.
Also, both the reassigned officials were installed during the Biden regime - perhaps as Deep Stater's they were deliberately failing at their job.
Or perhaps they were incompetent individuals appointed as a favor to a Democrat Senator or some other key Democrat official. Either way, it makes the point that results are expected (and if they had roles in the failed New York and Colorado raids, that Operational Security is not just a chapter heading in a book they skimmed over back when they got their jobs.
As others have pointed out, getting government employees to grasp that failure has consequences is a good thing — it prepares them to reenter the civilian workforce.
"It's harder to say Fox Butterfield Effect about that....
I don't think so. Trump was solidly elected in early November, and the public sentiment about out-of-control immigration has been well-known long before that. The issue factored prominently in the Presidential debates, after all. I think the only meaningful way to consider it is by viewing the flow of illegals since mid-summer or so, when the shifting reality began to set in. The dispatch of troops to the border is a late-breaking feature, the implementation of a long-held intention to change policy. From the immigrant's point of view, who would go to the expense if the likelihood is that you would be ejected and returned? We're simply seeing the paper tiger we've been living with: The flood of illegal immigrants was because they were being encouraged and subsidized. Simply stating an intention to defend borders and enforce the law is enough to discourage many.
I don't think it's sunk in yet just how much intentional damage has been inflicted on our nation over the past administration.
Also, both the reassigned officials were installed during the Biden regime - perhaps as Deep Stater's they were deliberately failing at their job.
Consider that they were performing their job exactly as previous leadership desired.
I've been dipping into Hossenfelder's discussions on QM and determinism for a long time. I never knew she had that kind of fire inside. Excellent. Thanks, jaq.
What Breezy said. They may have stopped coming, but there are thirty million of them here already. Plus there are all the public officials who aid and abet them. There are all the employers who pay them. For dessert, go get some pet-eating Haitians.
This effect is part of the Law of Diminishing Returns.
As ICE arrests numerous criminal illegal immigrants that Biden allowed to enter the USA, ICE will find fewer to arrest time forward.
Shutting down the border to illegal immigrants will prevent an additional supply of criminal illegal immigrants to be arrested by ICE.
That is one defined result of the success of Trump's border policy. And it's about time!
Another result will be the savings of millions of tax dollars coddling illegal immigrants with once luxury hotel accommodations and free this and that like health care and various ways of putting actual tax dollars into their hands.
" Is the WaPo run by teenagers not old enough to remember Taranto or just lazy now that government funding is drying up?"
WaPo wasn't using the term! WaPo was evincing the effect.
I'm the one that didn't see the original coinage. Blame Google or blame me.
I prefer the Paul Butterfield effect. Mike Bloomfield does it for me.
Isn't it "Butterfield Effect" - a take off of "Butterfly Effect"
If that was a Google headline summarizing the WaPo article it did at first glance fit the Fox Butterfield pattern because it seems to be saying that “no one is crossing” despite the troops arriving. It’s kind of ambiguous as worded.
At this point, when I see articles in WaPo, all I can do is smile, shake my head and think, "Bless their hearts."
NYC might help the stats if Adam’s opens up jails to ICE. One conflict that will come is the violent criminals vs regular illegals. It is better politically to stick with violent criminals and it is tougher to identify regular illegals on the street.
So for now, they are probably sticking with gang hangouts and shadowing people around the courts and jails. The best optics are when they arrest hundreds of gang killers while they party in warehouses.
One wonders how much effect "sanctuary" status hinders the efforts of ICE? I imagine it's considerable.
Fox Butterfield wasn't just an intellectual laughingstock. He was instrumental, along with some inappropriate relationships he had with judges, in freeing some of the most sadistic murderers and rapists back onto NYC's streets. The worse they were, the more he got off on them. He was at the very least a psychopath, if not an actual abuser himself. He also said blacks were hard-wired to rape and kill whites because of slavery. That went over well with everyone.
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