I'll update this as we go along... if I've got anything to say and I don't conk out.
But, please, get the comments started. The first polls close in about half an hour.
November 5, 2024
It's Election Night at last, and the results are almost in.
I hope to hear The Big Answer before I fall asleep, and that is not an expression of hope for insomnia. I hope there's a nice big juicy clear result that comes in early. A good brisk dose of reality. And then we can all stop fighting, come together, and get some rest.
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I voted at my near-west-side Madison poling place at 1:30pm. My wife and I and one other person were the only voters there. It seemed very strange.
I was here in 2016…what a wild ride that was
Move over, Grover
70% of EXIT VOTERS say the country is on the wrong track. That is ... 70% of the people who JUST EXITED A VOTING BOOTH said they didn't vote for Kamala Harris.
The Democrats are going to have to produce MILLIONS of fake ballots between now and about a week from now when they will announce that at long last, after they counted enough, Kamala Harris won.
You will not be getting any sound sleep tonight, Ann.
I was in Sydney, AU, in 2016 but followed the incoming results on the Althouse blog. Made for a surreal experience.
Watch Fayette County, KY. It is a blue county, but it will tell you a lot:
.......................Republican.................Democrat
2012...............60,795..........................62,080
2016...............56,894..........................69,778
2020...............58,860..........................90,600
If Harris' margin is equal to Biden's, it looks bad for Trump. If Harris' margin is worse than Clinton's, it looks bad for Harris.
The percentages or who even becomes President doesn't actually matter. I'm sure President Trump will increase the number of people voting for him, AGAIN, and possibly by another ten million. However many gorillion allegedly vote for Kamala, ask yourself this. If a revolution comes, how many people on your side are:
- armed,
- motivated, and
- legitimately and increasingly numerous?
Musk and Bezos (!!) aren't turning because they suddenly feel newfound empathy for the American people. They know appealing to deviant rejects is no longer remotely worth the effort. Make up whatever fake number you like: the oligarchs are heading to the exits or currying favor with Trump.
Just reported in MKE a Republican observer at central count found tabulators not properly locked. Requiring re-running some 31,000 mail and early ballots…delaying results
Polling place here in rural southern WI was pretty busy all day. No idea what that means, except that folks do seem to care.
Apropos of nothing, it occurred to me today that in far more politically correct Britain, the Labor Party has never had a woman leader whereas the Tories have had a few. I wonder if left-leaning male voters tend to have a problem with women.
Got me a bad, bad feeling about this one.
My wife and I voted last week in Hall County, Georgia, about forty miles northeast of Atlanta.
Although there was not a long wait to vote there was a lot of traffic through the polling place. People were in a good mood. The place was upbeat.
This is a very red county: industrial, distribution, agribusiness. About 40% of our population is Latino, initially drawn by jobs in the poultry processing industry. It will be interesting to see how their vote shakes out.
If Trump flips Virginia (not likely but possible) it's going to be a very short night.
Here in Thailand, Moo Deng predicted a win for Trump
If Trump is within 5% in Virginia it is going to be a short night.
I have no idea what it means, but there was lots of early voting in Ohio.
I waited til today. I drove past my voting place (a church) at 7:30 am, and it was completely packed. Cars on the grass, etc. So I waited til around 10 am, and took an early lunch break. I work remotely.
It was smooth and fairly quick. Finished in about a half-hour.
I’m glad I didn’t early vote. One friend of mine who did said it took three hours.
At about 2 pm I turned on the TV out of curiosity. Forget which network. It’s a Kamala Harris speech. I think it was live. I listened to 30 seconds before I almost threw up. Turned it off. Vowed to wait until later tonight to start paying attention.
If that woman is our President for 4 years, I may have to commit seppaku.
I’m hoping for a replay of 2016, when I stayed up until 3 am, in ecstasy.
Pretty
Tired of
Stupid
Democrats
2016 - Hillary lost because she didn't go to Wisconsin
2024 - Kamala loses because she wouldn't go on Joe Rogan's Podcast (and a dead squirrel)?
It's not over 'til it's over, and even then it's not over. I expect a lot of fuckery, just like last time.
I just want to avoid waking up tomorrow and finding out that what I believed going to sleep at 2am was no longer true. As it was in 2020.
I went to my poling place here in Maricopa Co. Got there at 5:55 AM (polls open at 6AM) and there was already a good sized line. I got in line and it took about 10 minutes to get into the building and sign in. Got my ballot (that was about the length of Gone With The Wind), voted and was done by 6:30 AM. Walked out and there was absolutely no line. I guess there were a lot of early and mail-in voters this go around. I don't know what the situation was later in the day; I spent that shopping for new shoes and doing chores.
Poll report from Kentucky.
Issues early this am with voter check in, likely caused by massive early voting that flooded the tablets we use to verify voters as we opened the polls. Rectified after a few hours but gave Democrats an early opportunity to lose their s#!+. Polls closed as normal. Turnout overall was heavy, looked to be approximately 60+% from early+Election Day though our precinct turnout today was relatively light.
Republicans UP AND DOWN THE TICKET are EVISCERATING the Democrats. It's not just Trump winning 60/40 ... Senators, Congressman ... Democrats aren't winning ANYWHERE.
The Democrats CAN ONLY WIN by cheating.
"I just want to avoid waking up tomorrow and finding out that what I believed going to sleep at 2am was no longer true. As it was in 2020."
Ditto, which is why I expect to bail early tonight.
I’m getting the feeling the Philadelphia Fraud Machine may be making a business decision not to go full Philly for Kamala this go round. Reasons: No Zuck Bucks for ballot harvesters this time and 2) fear of going to jail if Trump wins. Just a feeling.
I voted at 11:45 AM in Southern Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, and there were only a handful of people voting and lots of poll workers. This is normal for this town, as I've never had to wait in line.
FoxNews says it will come down to PA, site of massive vote fraud after 2 a.m. in 2020. Expect more of the same in 2024.
Kentucky has been CALLED for Trump. He's winning 80% to 20%. Kamala Harris couldn't catch a CAB in Kentucky.
Reason: Muskets being loaded ready for them to try to stop this.
Our little voting place in Beaufort County SC had a couple dozen in line ahead of us about 10 minutes before 7AM. I was number 22 to enter my ballot. A good line of 30-40 when I left. We’re trying to keep our intimate little polling place but it’s mostly elders who do early voting or make an elder appointment to vote..
My polling location just set a new record and there’s still two hours to go.
She wouldn't even DISCUSS P'Nut's murder. We need LEADERSHIP.
Watching Kentucky- only 4 counties have reported anything- and almost all absentee/mail ballots collected before today. Trump is at or over-performing his total margin in those counties from 2020 on just the mail-in-ballots. If mail-in-voters really lean Democrat, then this is bad news for Harris- it means Trump is doing quite a bit better than 2020.
If it's a short night in Trump's favor, will Biden congratulate Trump before Harris concedes?
Is this an omen?
I decided to put on some pleasant and not-too-demanding music while I ate dinner and waited for the returns. The most enticing CD that happened to be near the top of a random stack was 'Gerry Mulligan / Paul Desmond Quartet'. Only after I put it on did I notice that Track 6 is "The Battle Hymn of the Republican".
Fox reports 25% of black men are breaking for Trump in Georgia. She's toast.
Joe Biden is in bed already and they've drugged him to prevent him from doing precisely that.
Where are you watching results? On line? I was doing CNN and I just switched to Daily Wire.
Harris won’t concede
It's quite possible. Even at this late stage, Biden heavily dislikes "his" party and would love a chance to deliver a final blow while heavily incentivizing a Trump pardon for his son. That is assuming his cabinet lets him anywhere near cameras.
Why in the world would you watch CNN? Knowing what you must know.
I went to the polls in NE Ohio at 6:30AM when they open. Had to wait 30 minutes to check in. The poll worker who checked me in said there was a line forming at 6:00AM. On the other hand, my son said he only waited for 10 minutes at the same polling place mid-morning. Everyone seemed upbeat and happy to me. I hope that means they were Trump voters. Kamala supporters always seem angry to me.
Kentucky has been CALLED because precincts are coming in 80% Trump. Harris cannot overcome that. Ever. Mathematically.
My wife is watching Fox News, mostly out of habit I think. I thought their coverage in 2020 was awful. I’m hanging out on Althouse and X.
Businesses in DC are boarding themselves up in plywood to protect themselves against democracy-loving citizens celebrating Harris's win, or "protesting" Trump's loss. Either way it'll be a great night to demonstrate their love of country.
That's how it work with Dems, yuh know....
Everyone should keep in mind that Trump was WAY AHEAD of Joe Biden until the 3am fake ballot dump in key precincts.
Democrats KNOW how to steal elections and they want you to go to bed early thinking Donald Trump won so that they can STEAL the election in the night, while you are asleep, then whipsaw you in the morning and by the time you wake up good, they've already stolen the country.
We are NOT going to vote our way out of a country where some California hooker can run a coup on a US President.
Businesses in DC aren't boarding up their windows to protect against Reagan Republicans Running Rampant.
They know who they need to protect themselves against and what color they are.
I am going to pour myself a double Glenfiddich and watch the Bruins-Maple leafs game. Should he over around 9:45. I will turn to the networks, with the sound off. The expressions on their faces will tell me how things stand.
Our election center is right down the road from me and I saw about 200 people in line, to register probably because voters have actual polling places to go to. Or drop boxes for ballots.
Looked like Harris voters. Young and scruffy, staring at their phones.
Trump will win Montana tho.
Trump up 11 points in Miami-Dade. Those Latinos really don’t like that open borders sh*t.
There will be fiery peaceful protests no matter what happens.
Jill Biden voted in a very nice red suit. Was it because, this election only, she’s MAGA?
Her Panda outfit needed cleaning.
Daily Wire and the Free Press
I'm AMAZED by the comments that Google is DELETING. There is MASSIVE invasion of Americans' First Amendment rights going on with this company and it needs to be NATIONALIZED.
I was doing CNN and I just switched to Daily Wire.
Hmmm. I am inclined to think that Althouse voted for the Nazi with the Jewish son-in-law. At least, that is how her fellow Madisonians will see it.
Here and split with X
“Got me a bad, bad feeling about this one.”
This movement didn’t end with the Tea Party and win or lose it doesn’t end here.
Quoting Hillary, “I don’t feel no ways tired. We’ve come too far.”
Only we don’t say it with a fake accent.
Justice flips Senate in WVA ….yuge
Fox isn't showing ANY vote totals. They are just calling states based on their exit polling, but of course NOT SAYING how WELL Trump is winning. They're not showing ANY NUMBERS.
So we just have to trust the media. They're deciding these states. Not voters.
Not many districts reporting, but Harris seems to be running 5% or more behind Biden 2020 pretty much everywhere.
Somewhere Joe is smiling.
Excellent tune, like the rest of the album, composed by Paul Desmond. Liner notes have nothing about the odd title, but do say that it follows the chord changes of 'Tea for Two', which is also on the album. Were tea parties stereotypically Republican in 1957? Likely enough. But a tea party with a "battle hymn"? Seems implausible. Still a good omen.
Google is MASSIVELY deleting normal comments of American citizens. This company MUST BE NATIONALIZED.
Lots of numbers on X.
Google is deleting comments.
Will pussy hats make a comeback.
Google is DELETING most comments that even suggest that Google is deleting comments.
I'm tabbing the Daily Wire, NYT, Matt Taibbi, Tucker Carlson at Mar a Lago, and one other non-network site. My Wife has Fox on, in the background.
Not only Harris. She has ZERO coattails. Republicans are taking 60% in EVERY TYPE OF RACE. Governor, Senator, Congressman ... EVERYWHERE.
Babylon Bee has called the Early Lead for P'Nut.
Fox News TV has vote totals just below the % bubble
Andrea Mitchell just claimed:
"There are a lot of men...black and white, who just simply don't trust a woman to be chief executive, Commander in Chief." "They just don't wanna vote for a woman."
No, sweetie. We'll vote for a woman. Just not a whore.
Democrats are about to severely limit immigration into the United States from Mexico and South America because the Latinos are breaking SOLIDLY for Donald Trump and the Republican anti-cartel candidates.
Trump winning GA independents by 11 points. Fulton County can go home now.
Every Kentucky county that reports finished counts show Trump running better than he did in 2020. Harris underperformed Biden's results in all of them. It looks like she has bled support to the minor party candidates.
For results I trust: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Just posted about how Latinos are breaking massively for Trump. Google deleted the entire comment. Replies they seem to leave up for some reason, so I'm posting it here to test.
I’m using RCP to track results. I’m not big into listening to pundits, but DailyWire looks to have the best lineup.
You got something wrong in your noggin, Mary Glynn. Even if it was appropriate for you to ask, Althouse has adult children. I'm not even one of her stans but I can tell how disturbed you are. Get help.
It's not even close. He's winning 70-30.
I'm not even looking at results until 3am this morning when the Democrats dump all their pre-printed fake ballots to steal the election.
Watching and listening to Free Press on pc and Fox News video on TV
Google is interfering in the election.
I am recording Google massively deleting many, many normal opinion comments.
Where are you seeing this Dem "evisceration?" I'm only watching FOX so far and seeing mixed results - none of which mean very much with only very early vote counts in. I do hope you are right. I would just like to see it also.
Try it yourself. Just write a comment about how Google is deleting comments. Then refresh the page. Watch it disappear in real time.
"Thousands have poured into the Yard at Howard University for Harris’s election-night party. The radio host Charlamagne Tha God, who had a wide-ranging interview with Harris last month, is here. Andrew Gillum, the onetime Democratic nominee for governor of Florida, is also on campus. ....."
Pretty much expected I thought....
Trump is currently ahead by ONE MILLION VOTES in Florida and CNN hasn't called the state and Google is massively deleting many comments.
AnnaPaulina retains her seat in Congress. Good news for men everywhere.
Trump is currently ahead by ONE MILLION VOTES in Florida and CNN hasn't called the state and Google is massively [censored] many comments.
The censored word above is: DELETING
I would assume CAB just means cab , like Taxi cab.
[deleting]
Panhandle is still voting.
If Trump loses, the ominous thing I believe is going to happen, will happen sooner rather than later... I always look at the bright side. Stay Positive.
Decision Desk HQ now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning. It was 54% at the beginning of the day.
I'm going with the BBC
My read on the returns is that Harris is actually in danger of losing the popular vote nationwide- she is running well behind Biden in every county that has complete results so far in the eastern US.
Massachusetts closed the polls two weeks ago, calling it for all Democrats.
The two blue counties in Kentucky, Jefferson and Fayette (Louisville and Lexington) only have absentee ballots counted and Harris is only winning the absentee by the margin Biden won the counties in 2020 total. She is going to end up running 3-5% worse in Kentucky than Biden did. Now, Kentucky is deep red but the states are still corelated to a good degree. Will start looking at Virginia in detail.
BBC is reporting Kamala is not doing as well as expected with Puerto Rico populated counties in Fla and PA.
I'm looking at Virginia. It looks as though we're going to have another six years of smarmy Tim Kaine (sigh). One Congressional seat looks as though its going to flip -- the sixth, a district south and east of Richmond. The rest are holds or party holds. I had been afraid in the 5th district, where a Gaetz ally was punished for the mess where Gaetz, Nancy Mace, and six other members of the House allied with 100% of the Democrats to oust McCarthy. A guy named Good (no, his nickname was not "No") was one of those six and he lost in the primary, sort of like Liz Cheney. I though maybe he'd be in trouble, but he is winning by over 20 points.
The latest results show Trump gaining a little on Harris, down only 40,000 votes after being down 70,000 earlier, but she will probably hold on to win this state. That's not unexpected as far as I'm concerned -- the northeast corner of the state is dominated demographically by people who work for the federal government. They are aware that if Trump wins they may actually have to work for a living.
Expect a new found respect for the Electoral College if she does.
I've always thought Trump, if he wins, would probably pardon Hunter anyway. Makes him look magnanimous and serves to really piss off the Democrats.
And if Elon has his way, a lot of them may find that their jobs are eliminated.
BBC : Helene bodes well for Kamala.
South Carolina called for Trump.
Trumps got a small lead in VA RN
Sorry. Type. It was the Fourth, not the Sixth, and the Democrat incumbent has inched ahead. So probably no flips in this state.
"A good brisk dose of reality. And then we can all stop fighting, come together, and get some rest."
I want rest. But I do not want to stop fighting and come together. Do these people really expect that after the last 8 years of non-stop vilification? As if half the country has in any way changed and become less militant towards the other half? Like covid, a "our bad, we're sorry" is gonna cut it?!
Not happening. There will be no further ceding ground in the culture war that dominates the political life of this country. If you're on the left, expect a brawl every single time now, guaran-fucking-teed.
I'm "watching" RealClear Politics and they don't know. This is making me sick to my stomach and I tell myself to stop watching. I try to power off but somehow I end up looking at another tab. ABC News, David Muir. He's frowning and worried. I watch him for awhile. Back atcha, Dave. I check the comments here. I admire the ones who have managed to give themselves a break. I try to power off. I 'm going to check RealClear first though.
Here’s my dilemma
1. NYT is always wrong.
2. NYT needle shows Trump winning 278 to 260
Excellent post. If Kamala were to lose how does she/they walk back the f@scist/@uthoritarian/n@zi talk. They’ll attempt to cut his legs off.
I should say the needle is leaning. Not a definite prediction.
Another update. Trump has pulled very close to Harris, only 7000 votes behind, and most of the remaining areas where votes are to be counted are in rural -- therefore red -- parts of the state. Kaine's lead is also narrowing, but I fear it will hold up.
The people who might call in a false alarm need to know whatever disruption they have up their sleeve will be worth it. Or something.
Not likely. Looks like Milwaukee is up no good and is delaying its count because they cant get their shit together (or worse).
No other county in Wisconsin should reveal its total results until Milwaukee is done.
They would do well too to send the National Guard to the IL border and interdict anyone coming from Chicago.
NYT numbers are wild. Are they real time?
Your county includes the zip code with the highest percentage of illegal immigrants in the country. “Initially drawn by the promise that poor legal working Americans will pay their bills while you and they reap the freebies, pal. The highest percentage of illegals in the entire country. Your sleazy rep, now Lt. Gov. Burt Jones let this happen, and your fat and happy (I don’t know how you feel) poultry pals made a bunch of money off it while your neighbors like me pay for the illegals’ housing, schooling, utilities, medical — and we can’t afford our own. How special you’re retired and I imagine wealthy enough to not have to deal with the Central American gangs taking over Gainesville and destroying the schools, shooting cops and screwing little girls. Plus, it’s a “sanctuary county” now, so people like my illegal next door neighbor got away with impregnating one 11-year old daughter before he made the mistake of screwing the next one in the small part of Gainesville in Forsyth County, where we actually put child rapists away. Your county’s government just cut him loose a bunch of times. You should be ashamed.
The illegals don’t vote unless they’re doing it illegally by stealing citizens’ identities. How could you not know that? Because you don’t want to know, lawyer. Your generation did nothing to stop this. Shame on you. Red county my ass. More like a banana republic circling the drain. Enjoy your success.
Coffee filter face Evers will get right on that...
Maybe the NYT is still wrong... Trump wins 290 to 248!
For those looking at the NYTime needle- the algorithm needs some actual return data to make any solid prediction that isn't based on polling data alone. Give it until about 10 PM and then look at it and check out the states in the midwest and NC and GA.
Garbage!
I haven't found a good feed but The Bulwark (leftist) seems to be pessimistic about the whole thing.
Bulwark Election Night
One political analyst, who was a big Democrat, claimed that he did an analysis, and in 2000, the networks calling the state for Gore before the heavily red panhandle had voted, cost Bush 15,000 votes.
Well one of the big regrets of my life is that I voted for that little creep, and he only won by a couple of hundred votes...
Bulwark... lol, I will keep that link for when a Trump victory looks a lot more certain.
Forsyth County, Ga, outside the northern metro area and still one of the fastest growing counties in the U.S., is polling very hard for Trump. As it is now more than 20% SE Asian professional, as of very, very recently, I think this is a good sign for the future: a sign people are rejecting identity politics for fiscal and assimilative priorities, effective local government, good policing, and good schools.
Trump has pulled ahead in Virginia. I ran the numbers a few days ago, but basically if he wins Virginia he may not need Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Arizona.
It is going to be a long week.
I only watch the TV when I am in a mood to be lied to.
The following link (I am unable right now to hotlink it) shows exactly what I am seeing in the vote totals.https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Shenanigans in Milwaukee.
It just occurred to me watching all the NE states and NY awarded to Harris, and Southern States to Trump minutes after polls closed. National politics is the opposite of the NBA: garbage time is at the beginning of the game.
Trump won't win Virginia- there are too many outstanding vote counts in northern VA for his lead to hold- but he is running a lot better in the state than he did in 2020 when he lost by 10%. He might not lose the state by more 5% this time.
I love the NYT needle. Trump 285 to 253
MSNBC reports a trans woman has won a congressional seat in Delaware.
I wonder if any of the GOP congresswomen (eg Mace, MTG, Boebert) will complain about a wiener in their restroom.
JSM
Well, he's baa-ack
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1853427785894678531
The Bulwark is really very good - trying to explain why it's not going their way, as a side effect you get that it's not going their way
It's going to be a late night.
Why is Nebraska breaking for Harris
Althouse, you may enjoy Mark Halperin's "2 Way" YouTube channel (with consultant's Sean Spicer(R) and Dan Turentine(D). I've been listening to Fox on TV and bouncing between 2Way and Free Press since 3 PM (PST). Good analysis on all of them.
One interesting Bulwark complaint is that the gender gap is only 12% instead of 15% they were hoping for
John Stossel's betting odds tracker just pushed Trump over 76%.
I normally have a lot of contempt for the Koch operations, but their Project Libre, run by one of the men who was a minor when captured by Castro during the Bay of Pigs and returned to the U.S. in a special deal, is an exception, and he deserves all credit for turning younger Cuban generations against their flirtation with Democrat communism. Also, a lot of very wealthy Central and South Americans who saw the writing on the wall and fled rising despotism became citizens there some time ago. So the tide may be changing, but the “late” counting is not in yet.
I thought Michelle Obama didn’t want to get into politics.
I just hope both teams have fun.
My spouse, whose previous presidential vote was made in the last century, voted today here in Austin, TX. She voted for Trump (she hates Dem economics) and then anti-Cruz, and anti-R's statewide. Abortion was her issue. She says there is no understanding of the depths of anger many women in Texas have over the R's abortion law. Perhaps the state legislators will get the message, if they retain office. Or they can lose worse next go-round in two years. Serve 'em right if they lose, stepping on their own dicks like that over abortion.
Starting to look as though Trump will lose Pennsylvania. With 25% of the vote counted he’s a quarter million votes behind. Not enough votes counted in Michigan or Wisconsin to tell whether he can win either of them to compensate. So I sure hope Yancey Ward, upthread is wrong about my home state. As I write this Trump is 24,000 votes ahead out of 2,400,000 cast.
It's not. The urban areas in Nebraska always report earlier.
Many reports showing Trump winning above 43% of the total latino vote. If that is anywhere close to be true, the New Soviet Democraticals will have to undergo a massive strategic focus change as they have already lost the white working class, a bigger and bigger chunk of black males particular on the younger side, and now its the latino working class.....and that is no doubt driven by the insane open borders immigration policies of the New Soviet Democraticals.
And the New Soviet Democraticals won't understand this, but its a class battle, not a racial battle as the dems have built their entire party identity around for 60 years.
The Pennsylvania counts are largely all the big urban ones right now. I suspect they counted up the mail-in ballots earlier today- they had a big bolus of a count right after polls closed so those were not election day ballots.
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