Althouse: "Well, it happened. It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50.... But for the fourth time... the streams have crossed..."

October 18, 2024

"Well, it happened. It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50.... But for the fourth time... the streams have crossed..."

"... and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead — yes, it’s from Fox News, but Fox News polling has no history of GOP bias — Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent — for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are decided.)"

Wrote Nate Silver yesterday (at Silver Bulletin).

60 comments:

Iman said...: I don’t believe it’s this close. I have more faith in Americans… I think most see right through Harris. There’s no there there.; 10/18/24, 10:10 AM
Political Junkie said...: Hope DJT will keep the Big Mo. Early voting starts in TX next Monday. I will sneak in early Wednesday to vote against every D in every race! No mercy!; 10/18/24, 10:11 AM
Political Junkie said...: Without my googling, was GHWB the person who first used the phrase "Big Mo"?; 10/18/24, 10:12 AM
Political Junkie said...: Iman - I am with you. But, W was pretty empty, and he won twice.; 10/18/24, 10:14 AM
RideSpaceMountain said...: There's only one thing that can help Kamala at this point, and that's to follow Bret Baier's advice and "do more of these" unscripted and unedited interviews.

She should bring her arm-waving staffers too.; 10/18/24, 10:15 AM
Laurel said...: Voting Monday morning as soon as early voting opens in Texas. My youngest, a perennial non-voter, is voting this year. 2 votes for Trump. He needs to win and immediately exact retribution for Russia-Gate, 2 phony impeachments, and 4 years of lawfare. The Dems will only learn when they pay a painful price.; 10/18/24, 10:16 AM
Tim said...: He is a day late and a dollar short. RCP has been showing that for two weeks, and the betting markets have Trump pushing 60 percent.; 10/18/24, 10:16 AM
Václav Patrik Šulik said...: As Silver notes, there are basically two Fox news divisions - one is the partisan division of Sean Hannity and Jesse Watters. The other is the straight up news division - the same division that (properly) declared Joe Biden the winner of Arizona in 2000 and has Bret Baier as a lead anchor. Frankly, as a center-left guy, I have a lot of respect for this contingent.; 10/18/24, 10:18 AM
Oso Negro said...: The pollsters have Inga’s 15 burner phones on speed dial. And there are others; 10/18/24, 10:19 AM
mikee said...: I don't think anyone is polling the political operatives who are harvesting mail in ballots for their candidate. That is where the election will be decided, in millions of votes that otherwise wouldn't be cast - just as in 2020, when the dementia patient in his basement got 81 million legal, unauditable votes.; 10/18/24, 10:20 AM
Political Junkie said...: Good take, VPS. As you identify center left, felt I had to give you thumbs up for your analysis. I say it is spot on. Bavo!; 10/18/24, 10:21 AM
tim maguire said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 10:21 AM
tim maguire said...: Most voters treat the US as a parliamentary democracy--they don't vote for the person, they vote for the party. It doesn't matter how bad the candidate is because the candidate, no matter how awful personally, will support their party's priorities and promote their party's people.

40% will always vote Dem, 40% will always vote Rep, and the campaign is to win over the middle 20%. Trump should win this election 60-40. Why anyone who isn't a partisan Democrat would vote for Harris is a mystery to me.; 10/18/24, 10:23 AM
Political Junkie said...: Laurel - Not sure I agree. If DJT wins, and wins the popular vote, I think he should focus on having a successful term, building the R party in all 50 states, and fight the federal debt/deficit.; 10/18/24, 10:24 AM
Kate said...: Trump's peaking at the right time. My vote's already mailed in and done.; 10/18/24, 10:24 AM
Christopher B said...: In 2016 Silver recognized you can make a good business selling cope to nervous Democrats, and he's been going to the bank ever since.; 10/18/24, 10:25 AM
Robert Cook said...: "Why anyone who isn't a partisan Democrat would vote for Harris is a mystery to me."

Because the only other choice is Donald Trump. Which is no choice at all. I'm not voting for Harris; I'm voting for NOT TRUMP.

(The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people.); 10/18/24, 10:36 AM
Money Manger said...: On Wall Street, before a big earnings or economic number is released, there is always the official forecast (the average of the Official Forecasters); and then there is the "Whisper Number", the expected number as estimated, and bet on, by the smartest, savviest investors. The Whisper Number is what matters.

In the Presidential Election, there is clearly a gap between the official forecasts, by Silver and many others (~50/50), and the Whisper Number (Trump by a solid margin).; 10/18/24, 10:37 AM
Aggie said...: The betting odds are leaning heavily to Trump, and now show the House as a 50-50 chance of R majority. Senate is 80% R majority.

If this plays out, I see Trump working very hard to make JD Vance the clear Presidential choice for 2028. I don't think he'll get much credit for it, but I think this would be entirely in character for Trump. I don't know the historical precedent for the office - usually the VP is kept behind the scenes, doing thankless tasks. We shall see.; 10/18/24, 10:38 AM
Duke Dan said...: You can vote not Trump without voting for Harris - just sayin; 10/18/24, 10:41 AM
john mosby said...: Junkie - the thing is, to have a successful term, Trump really needs to defend himself from lawfare by conducting offensive lawfare. Only if they are in court as defendants will the D’s be even somewhat deterred or disabled from going after Trump. A credible threat of prosecution will certainly help keep the deep staters from actively thwarting him the way they did in his first term.

JSM; 10/18/24, 10:43 AM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 10:45 AM
Inga said...: “(The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people.)”

So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler. Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933. Intelligent people, people who should know better…; 10/18/24, 10:47 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Robert, if the party labels of Trump and Harris were reversed with all else being equal, you would vote for the Democrat.; 10/18/24, 10:47 AM
Hassayamper said...: I don't think anyone is polling the political operatives who are harvesting mail in ballots for their candidate.

We need a different term than "harvesting" for collecting ballots from nursing homes and empty lots and housing projects and abortion clinics and union halls, unseen by the people who putatively live there and whose names are on the envelope, and having them filled out by ward-heelers in back rooms.; 10/18/24, 10:50 AM
Inga said...: No, because any vote for a third party candidate or not voting is the same as a vote for Trump. Not voting for Hillary back in 2016 proved this. Anti -Trump Americans know this by now.; 10/18/24, 10:51 AM
wild chicken said...: Ugh, it's too early. He needs to peak on the last weekend like in 2016. That was classic.; 10/18/24, 10:57 AM
hombre said...: Cook: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump." This is the attitude sought by the leftmedia blitz against Trump. Many, hopefully most, of us do not consider it rational to cede control of our minds to ignorant journalists.; 10/18/24, 11:04 AM
hombre said...: Cook: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump." This is the attitude sought by the leftmedia blitz against Trump. Many, hopefully most, of us do not consider it rational to cede control of our minds to ignorant journalists.; 10/18/24, 11:04 AM
BG said...: What makes you think he's right now at the peak?; 10/18/24, 11:06 AM
BG said...: What makes you think he's at the peak right now? He has over two weeks left.; 10/18/24, 11:08 AM
Dixcus said...: Trump sure does seem to be a threat to Democracy. Which is exactly what he SHOULD be. We don't decide our Presidents by popular vote, for a very good reason. And the United State isn't a "democracy." In a "democracy" the popular can outlaw the unpopular.

We live in a Constitutional Republic. And we're going to keep it that way.; 10/18/24, 11:10 AM
Dixcus said...: They could succeed in murdering Trump. That would help Kamala. And they're going to try to do precisely that.; 10/18/24, 11:11 AM
RideSpaceMountain said...: We already had (allegedly) assassin #3 just a week ago. There's still plenty of time for them to find another *Bad Genes*; 10/18/24, 11:22 AM
Robert Cook said...: "Robert, if the party labels of Trump and Harris were reversed with all else being equal, you would vote for the Democrat."

Not at all. I'm puzzled at your thinking. Do you think I would vote knee jerk for the Dems? In fact, I haven't voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 1992. I've been voting Green Party since 1996. I'm ONLY voting for the Dem candidate this time around because the alternative is Trump. I'm voting NOT TRUMP. (I could afford not to vote for Trump in 2020 because I was still living in NYC at the time, and I knew Trump didn't have a chance of winning NY.); 10/18/24, 11:26 AM
tcrosse said...: Robert Cook is so much more enlightened than us, which is why he stands with the oligarchs and war mongers.; 10/18/24, 11:28 AM
Political Junkie said...: Dixcus - I of course do not want this, but I predict if DJT was killed today that JD would win in a landslide.; 10/18/24, 11:30 AM
Original Mike said...: "Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. "

That is way below the level necessary to overcome fraud. If that poll is accurate, Harris wins.; 10/18/24, 11:31 AM
Marcus Bressler said...: The TDS confessions continue; 10/18/24, 11:31 AM
Original Mike said...: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people."

Nazi Germany? Fuck you.

I'm voting, above all else, to prevent another 10 million undocumented people from being imported into our country.; 10/18/24, 11:35 AM
Dogma and Pony Show said...: I have had the same thought regarding a Trump assassination leading to JD's winning. Actually, at this point, Trump's name would presumably remain on the ballot in most places. But regardless, I think Trump/Vance would win going away because (a) people wouldn't want to "reward" the assassin(s) with kamala win; and (b) a lot of people who are repelled by the idea of voting for Trump don't have the same level of hatred toward JD.; 10/18/24, 11:36 AM
Robert Cook said...: "So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler. Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933. Intelligent people, people who should know better…."

Another baffling comment. Do you think I didn't know Hitler won the majority of the vote? That is the exact point of my comment. Purportedly "rational" German citizens voted for Hitler. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them quietly maintained their support for him even after the death of Hitler and fall of Germany. His electoral victory shows the prevalence of irrationality in the German populace and voters, just as with Americans today, and most or all large human populations anywhere.; 10/18/24, 11:37 AM
Robert Cook said...: Or perhaps, Inga, your comment was an affirmation of my comment. I first took it as some sort of dispute. My apologies, if I misread you.; 10/18/24, 11:40 AM
Inga said...: Yes Robert, my comment was an affirmation of yours. Directed to the mostly intelligent but sadly very mislead commenters here.; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Milwaukie guy said...: It's exasperating for me as a constitutionalist to be subjected to the fascist label, Cookie and Inga. Project much?

I try to return the favor by always calling the Democrats communists. Some people say that's going too far, they're just sort of socialists. It's really just a difference in velocity.

When I meet new people here in the WVa panhandle and they ask where I came from, I say I'm a refugee from communist Oregon. Besides grins all around, twice guys have said, I need to buy you a beer.

After decades in Chicago and and 15 years cheek-to-jowl with Portland OR, life away from flocks of Ingas and Karens is invigorating. Vote Trump, Save the Republic.; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Robert Cook said...: Heil Trump, Original Mike!; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Dogma and Pony Show said...: So, Inga (and Cook), you'd be willing to see another 10 million unvetted illegals let into the country if it means Trump doesn't get another four years as president? Is there an upper limit to how many such unvetted illegal you would tolerate to prevent Trump from getting another term? How much additional inflation is that worth?

For that matter, does it matter to you AT ALL what happens to the country, or is Trump's not being president the only thing you care about? Thanks in advance.; 10/18/24, 11:46 AM
Robert Cook said...: My turn to offer my confirmation to YOUR comment, Inga! That's exactly it!; 10/18/24, 11:47 AM
“Bad Genes” said...: If all states were like Maine and Nebraska candidates would have to campaign to a more broad electorate and there would be better policies.; 10/18/24, 11:49 AM
gilbar said...: Whisper Number (Trump by a solid margin)

BUT.. The Question IS: will that "solid margin" be beyond the margin of fraud?
i doubt it. The Democrat Party is SO CONFIDENT, that they are running Kammy Harris; 10/18/24, 11:52 AM
Christopher B said...: So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler.

Do you think I didn't know Hitler won the majority of the vote?

This is leftie/Democrat "Republicans are Nazis" propaganda, and in Cooks case an outright lie. Thought the National Socialist Workers Party held the most seats in the Reichstag in the early 1930s (though losing significantly in 1932) it was never close to winning a majority of the popular vote. The refusal of the German Communist Party to cooperate with non-Nazi parties in forming a coalition government meant that the remaining parties had no choice but to include Hitler.; 10/18/24, 11:54 AM
gilbar said...: Surprise! Surprise! Life Long Liberal Igna and Life Long Communist Cook agree that a republican government would be "Bad"!; 10/18/24, 11:54 AM
Robert Cook said...: RE: Dogma and Pony Show: Trump was a shit president, (and he is a shit human being, completely amoral and concerned only and entirely with himself). The "benefits" of his first term were largely (if not entirely) the continuing effects of the economy Obama built over the eight years of his two terms, (and don't forget he entered office with the recent collapse of Wall Street in the last year of Bush's second term). If you examine Trump's boasts, (bringing back jobs from overseas, "building a wall", etc.), he didn't accomplish any of them.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
Inga said...: Dogma…
It’s because I DO care what happens to this country that I would never want to see an autocrat like Trump in power. That should concern Americans more than a following a cult figure.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
mccullough said...: Hindenburg defeated Hitler and Thälmann in the 1932 German election for president. But the Nazis and the Communists both gained seats in the Reichstag in the 1932 elections.

Fascism and Communism. That was Europe in the 20s and 30s. Now
Europe is Islam.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
mccullough said...: Hindenburg defeated Hitler and Thälmann in the 1932 German election for president. But the Nazis and the Communists both gained seats in the Reichstag in the 1932 elections.

Fascism and Communism. That was Europe in the 20s and 30s. Now
Europe is Islam.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
Christopher B said...: It's odds of winning, based on running thousands of simulated elections via a computer model, not polling results.; 10/18/24, 11:57 AM
mccullough said...: If all states were Maine and Nebraska we would die from boredom; 10/18/24, 11:57 AM
gilbar said...: It certainly would be Interesting, if California went that way (or Illinois (or New York))..
BUT, the ONLY states that have/would/could do that are Red States; 10/18/24, 11:58 AM
Original Mike said...: Millions packed off to be murdered in concentration camps, just like Trump's first term. You're a fucking idiot, Cook.; 10/18/24, 12:15 PM