"The possibilities range from Trump making a rapid recovery and resuming his campaign, perhaps virtually at the start, to him becoming incapacitated and having to transfer power, at least on a temporary basis, to Vice-President Mike Pence, who so far has tested negative for the virus. In a worst-case scenario, Trump could be forced to withdraw from the race. The Republican National Committee, which is made up of officials from across the country, would then have to select a new candidate—presumably Pence. Given the calendar, things could get complicated...."
From "Trump’s Hospitalization Is Another Challenge for Democratic Norms" by John Cassidy (The New Yorker). Go to the link or elsewhere for details on the complications of swapping in Pence for Trump at this late date. Assuming it can be done, are you hoping to see this swap?
All the attacks have been focused on Trump, the man, and we can see in the polls that Trump is way behind. Make the candidate Pence and suddenly nearly all the arguments that Biden has used disappear. Biden would have to refocus, this late in the game, on Mike Pence, about whom one might say: He's articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy — that's a storybook, man.
October 4, 2020
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Trump will recover and all this is revenge porn.
Here’s what is going to happen:
Trump will recover.
He will say we have been through this together.
We are recovering as a nation. It is time to move past this together and reopen the country.
The choose will be between reopening and Biden and the Democrats who want a permanent police state.
It is storybook man.
"All the attacks have been focused on Trump, the man, and we can see in the polls that Trump is way behind."
What'chu talkin' about Willis?
In the first post poll since President Trump announced that he had COVID-19, his chances of reelection surged, a sign that his infection and raucous debate performance didn’t hurt his chances for reelection.
The new John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions survey shared with Secrets showed Biden up 49% to 47%, his smallest lead yet in their polls. In a four-way race, Biden leads 47%-45%, with 2% each for Dr. Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins.
None of the choices seem right to me in that poll. I guess were Trump to go into a coma, the switch of Pence for Trump would be appropriate and needed by the GOP. However, Pence would go on to lose the election is the most likely scenario going forward from that choice. It would work better in which a very ill Trump withdrew in the next week and endorsed Pence as the replacement, but Trump doesn't appear to be in that position despite all the fear mongering being done by the idiot media. By far the most likely outcome (about 95%) is that Trump is back on the campaign trail next weekend.
I actively avoid reading speculation about how Trump is doing. Nobody, including his physicians, know for sure how this will end. It's all fill for column inches or clicks.
If anybody knew, they would not talk.
Anybody who talks, does not know.
Pence over Harris is even more clear than Trump over Biden. Lots of Ds hate Harris. I can't imaging any R hating Pence.
I'm expecting a blowout for the Rs, attenuated by massive fraud and media gaslighting.
Keeping powder dry.
It is amazing to me that none of these people can even look 2 weeks into likely futures.
This is why Trump destroys them every time.
If you want to talk about anything being staged it would be all of these positive diagnoses.
This whole testing positive event has turned into another nothing burger. This is what has happened to millions on people on the planet. Individual response to the virus varies along a wide spectrum. From not being aware you have become infected, to death. While co-mordities can offer some predictive assistance, nothing past 50/50.
The speculation of swapping out the candidate is just pure speculation. About like thinking about what you would do if you suddenly had $50 million in cash, or who would you sleep with if your spouse gave you a hall pass. Fun Fantasy, but silly to waste much energy on.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/stats-hold-a-surprise-lockdowns-may-have-had-little-effect-on-covid-19-spread/
Lockdowns do not work.
Where are Karen B and tim in vermont to explain why empiricism must be wrong because feelz?
Dr Garibaldi says Trump might be released tomorrow.
Leftist Collectivists hardest hit.
Pence from all that we know is a good and respectable person. Politically though he is the opposite of Trump. The voters elected Trump, I doubt they would elect Pence in his place.
Trump's physician just said he's doing well and might be back at the WH tomorrow.
Which is odd, since the media has been giving us the impression Trump is at death's door. Gee, could they possibly be lying?
Of course, they will pivot immediately from "Trump is close to death!" to "He's faking it!"
I do feel for Trump's medical team. I'm sure he's a terrible patient.
"Mr. President, please, try to get some rest!"
"NO!"
“Trump will recover and all this is revenge porn.”
Statistically and objectively, almost certain.
Talk about October surprises. Trump overcomes the threat of the times while the Left incontinently lusts for his death and Biden cowers in his basement. Jesus, you couldn’t ask for a better campaign endgame. And you don’t even need rallies or barnstorming ‘cause all eyes are on you. Barely present as it was, Biden just got completely sidelined.
Let's put it this way: by comparison, if Biden ever released positive test results, it'd be over.
I also want to reiterate my opposition to Mike Pence. Just another Bush style republican.
It would have to be Crenshaw or Cotton doing the replacing.
Rand Paul has proven to be too much of a weakling.
Some GOPers are voting for Pence regardless.
Because voters vote for Presidential electors not for an individual candidate, the RNC can swap candidates if the Presidential candidate is incapacitated.
Of course it depends. And of course we have to prepare for Trump dying or being incapacitated. Which is nothing new.
Here is a trivia question for you guys:
Which is the earliest US president who still has a living grandchild today?
If Trump is replaced by someone else, what happens to all the ballots already cast for Trump? Are they still for Trump, effectively splitting the Republican vote and guarantying a Biden victory even if he loses the popular vote?
Trump will likely be released from the hospital tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Biden has declared "a lid" on his activities before 10 AM yet again.
Can we afford to elect a sick old man who hasn't had COVID-19 yet, and would be at high risk for very serious complications if he does get infected?
The President of the United States can't continually cower in his basement.
The NeverTrump pretend conservatives have already sold their principles to Team Wokeness, so they would still not vote for Pence.
Tim,
You don't vote for a person on a presidential ballot- you are voting for the slate of electors from your state. All those Trump votes already cast are still for the same slate of electors that would be voted on if Pence were moved to the top of the ticket.
Odds are Trump won't be incapacitated. If, against the odds he were, I doubt the RNC or Pence would drop him from the ticket. It would seem disloyal and would hurt with his base. And there's no real need to do so. Pence would function temporarily as President and the 25th Amendment could be invoked after the election if Trump had no prospect of a decent recovery.
I didn't see an option for, "this is all wishfull thinking by politics junkies, and Pence would be just fine."
Gunner,
Yeah, it would be fascinating to watch Bill Kristol, George Will, Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, David French etal. to square the circle for how they still support Joe Biden with Pence at the top of the ticket. It really is all about the money they take from the Left now.
Yancey Ward
Just a few years ago the answer was Tyler!
Wild guess Hayes.
John Tyler.
Here's where i come to read optimism porn.
The speculators never seem to know how these things really work. They fancy themselves the boys in the smoky back room, pulling the strings.
In other news: commentators, pundits and bloggers still uncomfortable with that vulgar Trump fellow. Can't something be done?
The media has tried so hard to convince everyone that the virus is an immediate death sentence that they have succumbed to their own hype. Thus, we have all these stories that just assume the President will be dead by next week and a new candidate will have to be chosen (or Biden wins by default).
Meanwhile, the President seems to have very mild symptoms, has continued to work, and will probably be released early next week.
Why does anyone believe anything the media reports?
He'll be back tweeting from his own bed in the White House Tuesday night. (If I'm wrong, I predict that I will promise to never again make a public prediction.)
3 million or so ballots have already been cast. What do you do about those? Do the Trump votes get tossed? What about the Biden votes? Are you sure all those voters would have voted for Biden if the alternative was Pence or whoever the GOP would pick?
3 million or so ballots have already been cast. What do you do about those? Do the Trump votes get tossed? What about the Biden votes? Are you sure all those voters would have voted for Biden if the alternative was Pence or whoever the GOP would pick?
Meade said...
He'll be back tweeting from his own bed in the White House Tuesday night. (If I'm wrong, I predict that I will promise to never again make a public prediction.)
Will you apologize to the people who were right about Covid?
You were spectacularly wrong.
Or do you remain incapable of forgiveness?
You left off “Go To Hell” from the poll options.
You left off “Go To Hell” from the poll options.
Here's where i come to read optimism porn.
Where do you go to get your apocalyptic Trump porn?
Unknown at 12:04 PM,
The Biden voters, if by mail, can probably go get their ballot, trash it, and revote for Pence in that scenario. The Trump voters don't have to do a thing unless they want to change to Biden.
"Will you apologize to the people who were right about Covid?"
Depends. Did I do or say something that caused you injury?
@Yancey, Google says Tyler’s grandsons — Tyler being President #10 — are still with us.
Regarding your comment at 11:18, the last option in the poll seemed abundantly correct as far as I am concerned.
Trump strong like bull.
Biden much weak bullshit.
"You were spectacularly wrong."
Spectacularly wrong about what exactly? About following the White House Coronavirus Task Force recommendations to slow the spread?
"Until we see how Trump’s condition progresses, it’s impossible to say where the election campaign will go from here."
And yet the writer is about to spend the rest of the article saying what "impossible to say" means in a series of conjectures based on nothing outside of the writer's fantasies.
3 million or so ballots have already been cast.
Many people have pointed out the folly of early voting for exactly these kinds of reasons.
It's one thing to vote early or not at all, as with absentee ballots.
It's quite another to say, "I know what the world will look like months from now, so here's my decision" when they could easily wait and vote on Election Day.
Correct answer: If it happens, Biden campaign has serious difficulties
But it's much better for the GOP, and for the Country, for Trump (and the other recent hi visibility people infected) to recover quickly.
Because that would put a bullet through the head of "lockdown fever", and toast the Democrats up and down the ballot.
"The Dems want to lock you up. We want to free you to get on with your life! Vote GOP!"
Yes, Tyler was the answer. I didn't know that until this morning when I learned that one of his remaining grandsons died yesterday- still has one 92 year old grandson still living. The Tyler family seemed to have the ability to release the Kraken deeper into old age than most.
corksoakers will soak
weak mediaDem ghoulash
it's simp sustenance
"Trump will likely be released from the hospital tomorrow."
I kinda hope they don't, even if they feel they can. A couple more days rest wouldn't hurt and I would think he'd get more rest at Walter Reed than the White House.
When I got covid (which is from Chy-Na) I was on a ladder trimming trees on the 3rd day even though I was woozy (felt my schedule compelled me to do it and I didn't know it was covid yet). Probably shouldn't have done that. It may have delayed my recovery. Two weeks later I was still having problems with fatigue. I'd like to see them go a little slow.
I am looking forward to the videos of crying liberals that will be on youtube on November 4th.
Trump didn't feel sick. probably mask wearing was the problem.
and - Ohio people with the virus.
Mike,
I am not offended by the poll.
"Where do you go to get your apocalyptic Trump porn?"
CNN, NPR, NBC, CBS, NYT, …
Mr. Trump is getting dexamethasone. According to Nicholas Christakis, "[u]sing data in RCT that showed efficacy of dexamethasone, and making rough adjustment for age, sex, & condition... POTUS risk of death may now be as high as 1/3."
It's insane to speculate about substituting Mike Pence for Donald Trump. If the Twitter internists had been half as skilled about diagnosing and treating RBG, perhaps she'd still be alive. Or would have retired in 2013 like someone with brains.
Nevertheless, if the President "mysteriously" died at Walter Reed, the recriminations would be enough to poison the election, and the republic. Mike Pence wouldn't be able to hold that back- assuming a substantial portion of Donald Trump's base didn't outright blame him for the conspiracy.
But it's all October fever. Donald Trump will recover, probably inside the week, at which point Dems will pivot to "faking it" and Republicans will say "liberate America!" It's all quite predictable, and still people haven't prepared.
"You were spectacularly wrong."
Spectacularly wrong?
You must be from the Party of Science.
For Readering, the optimistic porn we dish out is the apocalyptic version.
For nearly all of us - Covid-19 will not be that big a deal. We'll get a sick, some more so and some less so, and then get over it.
Covid isn't great - but its also not as bad as we've all made out - it wasn't worth all the damage we've done to our lives.
I'd wager that Trump will be just fine in a few days. I was surprised at Boris Johnson's problems, but remember, he was never put on a ventilator. I had a young friend (26 yr old), had covid and said breathing was harder and she was scared, but she never went critical, never went to the hospital, and recovered just fine and in a week. The Boris thing might have been more 'scare' than 'critical'.
I don't know why the anti-trumpers advocate everyone wear a mask.
Two masks would be better.
Three, better still.
Readering reminds me daily why the thought of nuking him/her/it/them from space is my number one fantasy.
"I don't know why the anti-trumpers advocate everyone wear a mask. Two masks would be better. Three, better still."
And since there is a lot of evidence it is fecally transmitted, butt plugs.
Meade said...
"Will you apologize to the people who were right about Covid?"
Depends. Did I do or say something that caused you injury?
When people were questioning the lock down you questioned our moral character and said you would never forgive us.
Now that the lock down has proven to be ineffective and a stalking horse for totalitarians I would just wonder if you will admit you were wrong and apologize.
cfs said...
The media has tried so hard to convince everyone that the virus is an immediate death sentence that they have succumbed to their own hype.
And this is why my sadness about the people who all supposedly caught Covid from ACB's announcement ceremony is so tempered.
We've got what, 10 - 15 people, all of whom are in the spotlight, who caught Covid at around the same time. Odds are better than 50% that none of them will even have a serious case, let alone die.
So, by all means keep bloviating about "super-spreader events", etc. But when all the people involved our virus free two weeks from now, understand that will be the death knell for lockdowns, and for all the dictatorial games Democrats have been inflicting on the rest of us.
And the follow on will be a solid rejection of Democrat candidates, at every level of the ballot.
People have been dying from the flu since forever but nobody has ever suggested that everybody be told to stay at home or wear face diapers should they choose to risk death by going to the market. And I'm sure I don't ever remember hearing anybody call for the resignation of a president who caught the flu.
But here we are.
And for what? A disease that's more deadly than the flu for older folks with health issues, but less deadly for the young. It's almost like there's something else going on here, and it's not the disease that's the real issue.
For lack of properly nuanced choices, I went with Too Complicated/Pence isn't Trump.
The Walter Reed docs just announced Trump was doing OK and seemed optimistic. I have avoided reading or hearing speculation by not being online or watching much news since yesterday (Sat)
morning, but was not surprised to learn from my minor influencer wife that the interwebs are ablaze with it, both pro- and anti-T.
I was a bit surprised that so many seem to think it's some sort of stunt concocted for his advantage . . .
One of my friends, a yellowdog D but Covid-skeptical, has it. He's 63 and would be overweight after losing three stone, but apparently is, like Trump, on the mend.
Narr
I saw him about ten days ago . . . (my friend, not Trump)
Spiros said...
According to Nicholas Christakis
And we should care about what he says, why?
Kevin said...
"You were spectacularly wrong."
Spectacularly wrong?
You must be from the Party of Science.
Were you one of the Karen's freaking out and demanding a totalitarian state or we were all going to die?
There were a lot of dishonest people like Ken B and Meade who were attacking the moral integrity of anyone that stood up for freedom. People who predicted millions of dead.
The numbers were never there.
And even now they are wrapping pneumonia deaths into the number Covid deaths to boost their power grabs. If you take pneumonia out of the 200,000ish thousand you end up with 85,000ish thousand Covid deaths.
80% of those over 70.
A slightly above average flu season.
I'm not so sure Trump is "way behind." The polls you are reading often oversample democrats, and poll registered voters rather than likely voters. Consider the following, released today:
President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.
The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.
The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.
With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.
The poll released by the same polling firm one month earlier on August 29 showed Trump with a three point lead over Biden, 48 percent to 45 percent, indicating a two point drop for Trump, though Biden’s support has not increased.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which does not include the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll among polls included in its average, currently shows Biden with a 7.6 point lead over President Trump in the national popular vote.
An IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which is included in the polling average, shows Biden with a three point lead over Trump in the national popular vote.
A Zogby Poll, released on Saturday, also excluded from the average, shows Biden with a two point lead over Trump in the national popular vote, within that poll’s margin of error.
The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday found that 18 percent of Black voters support Trump, a significant increase from the eight percent who supported him in 2016.
Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham called, “low support and enthusiasm” for Biden among Black voters the “Achilles’ Heel” of his campaign.
“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best,” Basham told the Sunday Express.
Trump performed well in several key battleground states.
In Florida, Trump leads Biden by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 500 likely voters.
In Minnesota, Trump leads Biden by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 450 likely voters in that state.
In New Hampshire, Trump leads Biden by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 400 likely voters in that state.
The poll currently projects Trump is on track to win 320 Electoral College votes, compared to Biden’s 218, which is 50 electoral college votes more than the 270 Trump needs to win in 2020 to be re-elected.
"There were a lot of dishonest people like Ken B and Meade who were attacking the moral integrity of anyone that stood up for freedom."
Blatantly wrong and defamatory. But I can probably find a way to forgive you for it. If forgiveness is what you need.
Trump is NOT way behind. That's absurd. Again, I think the chances of him winning are 50/50. But Trump will have to fight hard to win. You just have too many stupid people in the USA. Dumbo's who just want to destroy the country, or can't think past their nose. Look at Mitt Romney - what goes on in that clown's mind? And then there are the "I've got mine, screw you" types. 48% of the country wanted Hillary in 2016. Never forget that. The USA is living on borrowed time.
ron said...
I'm not so sure Trump is "way behind." The polls you are reading often oversample democrats, and poll registered voters rather than likely voters."
Helmut Norpath has a pretty good track record:
"Professor Norpoth just as confidently predicts that Trump will trounce Joe Biden in November. Specifically, he gives the president a 91 percent chance of winning the election with an unambiguous 362-176 Electoral College margin. If this seems implausible, considering the avalanche of polls that portend Trump’s imminent political demise, it will seem less so when Norpoth’s track record is taken into account. The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”
his model ignores the polls, which Norpoth believes are no longer representative of the electorate, and does not attempt to calculate the political effect of transient events like economic fluctuations or natural disasters. Instead, it is designed around long-term electoral cycles and early primary results of particular contests under scrutiny."
https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-trump-win-november/
Trump is going to win 35 to 40 states. Maybe more, if Joe has a bad senior moment in a public arena the press can't hide. Maybe more, if Hillary cackles a few more times in public. Maybe more, if Obama's role in Crossfire Hurricane, etc., is examined publicly. Maybe more, if ....
Trump has nowhere to go but up. Biden has nowhere to go but down.
from CovidHawk Down, the unauthorized movie:
Pres. Trump:
You, get up there and drive!
Private Second Class LLR Never Trump:
But I'm shot by virus, Mr. President!
Pres. Trump:
Everybody's shot by virus! We've got a nation to save, let's go!
Greg, I'm just trying to piece together an enigmatic puzzle. Dr. Christakis is highly respected and his opinion matter.
We know that Mr. Trump's age alone puts him at around an 8% risk of mortality. He also appears to have an increased risk of death from COVID-19 by virtue of being male. Other studies have shown an increased risk of death is also associated with obesity. So bad news. Now we find out that Mr. Trump was given not only experimental drugs but also dexamethasone? This is fishy.
Consider also Kevin Drum of Mother Jones who chronicled his "intense sleeplessness and crashing" when he was given dexamethasone (or "evil dex"). Dex is just about the only stuff that works for seriously ill Covid 19 patients but it is nasty. So even if Mr. Trump is not on his deathbed, dex causes confusion and hallucinations. I think it's time for Mike Pence to step up.
I'm watching the Seattle vs. Miami football game. They just played a Trump ad focused on the African-American population.
Cutting and pasting all the takes after the first (and now quite possibly only) presidential debate, are we?
"... nuking ... from space..." Is that a thing now?
Blogger Spiros said...
Mr. Trump is getting dexamethasone. According to Nicholas Christakis, "[u]sing data in RCT that showed efficacy of dexamethasone, and making rough adjustment for age, sex, & condition... POTUS risk of death may now be as high as 1/3."
Says the loon who has never prescribed decadron for anyone. Dexamethasone is just another corticosteroid. I doubt he is getting it. I assume another of your anonymous sources.
iowan2 said... This whole testing positive event has turned into another nothing burger.
One year from now, the CDC will have the number of 2020 deaths. The trend has it at 2.8 million.
Will COVID deaths (very loosely defined as dying with COVID in your system) cause a 200K increase in 2020?
I will bet that the increase is less than 50K and that a lot of it is due to people avoiding hospitals when they needed treatment for other conditions.
There Democrats have treated COVID just like it was the Kavanaugh hearings.
Meade said...
"There were a lot of dishonest people like Ken B and Meade who were attacking the moral integrity of anyone that stood up for freedom."
Blatantly wrong and defamatory. But I can probably find a way to forgive you for it. If forgiveness is what you need.
I also predicted back then you were all going to run away from the things you said about us.
"I'm watching the Seattle vs. Miami football game. They just played a Trump ad focused on the African-American population."
I'm watching Vikings/Texans and they just ran a negative Biden ad.
Meade
Does one forgive a parrot?
Does one forgive a stopped clock?
"I also predicted back then you were all going to run away from the things you said about us."
Exactly who is "us?" And who is running away? Obviously wrong again.
I searched to see if anyone else would comment on that this and there are few people that did. I can't believe you still trust the polls. They quit being reliable years before Trump. And it's just been accelerating in inaccuracy ever since his election.
whitney said...
I searched to see if anyone else would comment on that this and there are few people that did. I can't believe you still trust the polls. They quit being reliable years before Trump. And it's just been accelerating in inaccuracy ever since his election.
10/4/20, 1:56 PM
Take a trip down memory lane, hmm?
www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986
I guessed John Tyler, too. I was wondering how so I went to the Wikipedia.
John Tyler (1790-1862) was the 10th Vice President, 1841. He became the 10th President (1841-1845) upon the death of President William Henry Harrison.
His first wife was Letitia Christian (1790-1842). They had eight children over the span 1815 to 1830.
His second wife was Julia Gardiner (1820-1899). They had seven children over the span 1846 to 1860.
Some of their longest-living children were David (1846-1927), Robert Fitzwalter (1856) and Pearl (1860-1947).
Lyon Gardiner Tyler (1853-1935) has [as of August 2019] two living sons, Lyon Gardiner Tyler, Jr (b. 1924) and Harrison Ruffin Tyler (b. 1928).
The Tyler's seem to be a very randy bunch.
"We know that Mr. Trump's age alone puts him at around an 8% risk of mortality. He also appears to have an increased risk of death from COVID-19 by virtue of being male. Other studies have shown an increased risk of death is also associated with obesity. So bad news. Now we find out that Mr. Trump was given not only experimental drugs but also dexamethasone? This is fishy."
And if it turns out Trump is in Guatemala during the rainy season, Spiros can practically guarantee Trump's death by the end of next week.
That should have been Robert Fitzwalter (1856-1927).
And Spiros hasn't even included the possibility that an asteroid will strike Trump's hospital.
What if Hitler had died in 1941?
Show me the specific poll numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
The rest are hot garbage.
This is worth adding, too.
Letitia Tyler gave birth in 1815, 1816, 1819, 1823, 1825, 1827 and 1830.
Julia Tyler gave birth in 1846, 1848, 1849, 1851, 1853, 1856 and 1860.
"What if Hitler had died in 1941?"
Well, do you mean Hitler or Literally Hitler. Because if you mean Literally Hitler, I don't think he was even born until sometime after 1941. Of course, he's Literally Hitler so I suppose he could be born any year he chooses to be born. Probably karma. Or science. Or both.
What if Junius Booth had remained faithful to his wife in 1837?
"Show me the specific poll numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
The rest are hot garbage."
Show me poll numbers for Vigo County, Indiana. Juneau County, Sawyer County, Wisconsin. Or Valencia County, New Mexico.
There was a South Carolina poll out last week that showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat. Here is the problem- there was a poll out of South Carolina put out in the during the 2016 campaign that showed Trump and Clinton in a dead heat in the state- Rachel Maddow is even on video talking about it excitedly. Trump won the state by 14 points- by more than Romney did 4 years earlier.
Well, we can look at Ann's post here:
https://althouse.blogspot.com/2020/03/do-as-i-say-dont-touch-your-face.html
In which she says, complete:
"Do the math.
The numbers I'm seeing would mean that 3 million Americans could die. The flu hasn't been like that, not for a good long time. So those of you who are saying thousands of people die every year from the flu so I'll wait and see if this thing goes big — you are suffering from innumeracy... and you are part of the problem
I am not panicking. I am thinking, calculating, and being rational."
Total U.S. covid deaths today, about 210,000.
Ann, I believe, was looking at the computer projections. Achilles, however, in the same thread, looked at actual cases reported. He wrote:
Let's talk numbers with people suffering from innumeracy since you like to talk down to people.
cases deaths
China 80,430 3,013
S. Korea 6,088 40
Italy 3,858 148
Diamond Princess 696 6
France 377 6
Germany 543
Japan 361 6
USA 194 12
Everyone on the diamond princess was tested. Death rate < 1%.
South Korea is the country up there that is going to the most lengths to test people. Death rate < 1%.
This was going on for months in China before they stopped killing doctors off for reporting it. The numbers from China are obvious lies. At least an order of magnitude more people were sick before it was dealt with.
The places where everyone is tested or an effort is being made to diagnose all cases the death rates are right in line with the flu.
There were other commenters who disagreed with Ann. Except Inga.
So after seven months, the score stands:
Achilles and other commenters: 1; Ann and Inga: 0
Unfortunately, the politicians preferred bad computer projections to math.
The media are trying to thread a needle with their polls- you can describe the trends at the state level this way:
(1) in states Trump would win in a Biden landslide, the polls are put out showing great weakness for Trump- the South Carolina polls I mentioned above are of that type, same with a lot of the Texas polls I have seen in recent weeks, along with Georgia;
(2) in states that are true swing states, the polls are much closer than would be indicated by the national polls the same media organizations are flogging; for example, if Biden really were ahead of Trump by 14 points, then he would be ahead of Trump by 14 in Florida, 12 in Ohio, 16 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The reason the swing state polls are done with less bias is that Democrats don't want a repeat of 2016 where the candidate thought she didn't have to campaign in those states to win. However, they are now forced by their desires to gives us completely asinine polling results like Biden up by 14 points, but only up by 2-4 in the swing states. One or the other those have to be completely wrong, and Occam's Razor says the national polls are the ones more inaccurate- just like 2016.
Trump's doctors said the president is being treated with dexamethasone.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/doctors-say-trump-steroid-therapy-health-improving-after-brief-episodes-n1242057
Why should Trump step down...he is doing a great job! Best President of my lifetime. Why does the left want the same old Politics they have been bitching about for years?? Vote for Joe, and get just that!! I know they think the Radicals will be in charge, but do you really think the American people will sit down and let them abolish the country???
Spiros: "Mr. Trump is getting dexamethasone. According to Nicholas Christakis, "[u]sing data in RCT that showed efficacy of dexamethasone, and making rough adjustment for age, sex, & condition... POTUS risk of death may now be as high as 1/3."
LOL
On the chance it is useful to the discussion, I will point out that back in the spring we were asked to shutdown for two weeks or so to flatten the curve of infection so as to prevent an overwhelming of the health care system and avoid excess deaths. I read it here first, perhaps from Yancey Ward, that flattening the curve could accomplish the goal of preventing debilitating stress on the health care system, but that it would not stop the virus. Ultimately the same number of people would be infected by Covid, it would just take longer for that to happen. Seeing the recent "spikes" in cases, particularly among the college aged, would seem to prove that prediction correct.
The odds Biden and Harris get the virus are high, unless they keep calling a lid on campaign events.
Trump will recover. Biden will be under a lid. 90% of success is showing up. Biden is doomed.
QED.
Spiros said...
According to Nicholas Christakis
And we should care about what he says, why?
There’s an asshole/attorney of Greek descent goes by “nk” over at Patterico who promotes all things Greek when he’s not speculating on gerbils or the First Lady’s virtue. A real D-Bagger.
Trump has a lead in the so-called swing states.
He is also ahead in several states he did not win in 2016.
Readering will now bookmark this page.
If Trump recovers in record time people will claim he never had Covid and was never at risk, that this was all a hoax to gain sympathy.
I vote "This is a bad poll."
In a worst-case scenario, Trump could be forced to withdraw from the race.
technically (as Tim in Florida Not Vermont will gladly tell us), the 'worst-case scenario' would be where Trump would end up in a box
Actually, TiFNV would probably tell us that the 'worst-case scenario' would be if EACH AND EVERY PERSON ON EARTH died At Least Once (possible 6 or 7 times? Right TiFNV?)
""... nuking ... from space..." Is that a thing now?"
No, that's why it's just a fantasy and you aren't a radioactive pile of ash.
Whichever Wikipedia page for 'Tyler' that I landed at features a photograph of a garden memorial somewhere. I'm pretty sure that it needs to be re-named and re-purposed in this glorious Age of Woke.
"According to Nicholas Christakis,... POTUS risk of death may now be as high as 1/3."
WRONG! His risk of death is 3/3 -- mine too, yours too. It's only a question of when.
By the way, does anyone know if Trump is descended from John Tyler?
I never see any reporters saying how Melania is doing.
I guess they "really don't care".
Trump is on his way back to the White House by motorcade. Agents in the Suburban with him appear to be gowned, masked, and wearing eye protection. Strategically, I think that it would have been better to have spent a couple more days at Walter Reed. Might have made him appear a bit more heroic. Not to be. But hope he runs a reduced schedule the next couple days.
Joe Biden continues to rest quietly in his burrow, feasting on his favorite tubers.
Bill Peschel at 2:29–
Thanks for the review of Althouse’s deep dive into the numbers back in the days of computer projections. I was so upset at her loss of reason that I took her off my blogroll for a while.
It has been pretty clear since the end of April that this is a bug that carries off old people and a few younger unfortunates. The lockdowns were Covid 19 theater that let preening politicians claim they were doing something to beat the virus, and uninformed and weak- minded people bought it. Instead of locking down entire swathes of productive people, most of whom are under 65, we should have focused on protecting older people with public service messages and good information. The schools should have stayed open, and most businesses should have stayed at work.
Too late now.
Spiros said...
Greg, I'm just trying to piece together an enigmatic puzzle. Dr. Christakis is highly respected and his opinion matter.
Highly respected? By who?
"His opinions matter"? To who?
According to the Continuing Education class I took on the subject, the "bad case" scenario is a person who goes through the normal progression, starts to feel much better, wants to check out of the hospital, and then crashes as their immune system goes into inflammatory overdrive, destroying their organs.
So if I were in charge of Trump's care, some steroids to keep the inflammatory response from starting seems like a good therapy to engage in once he's feeling better.
IOW, how many Covid 19 patients has "Dr. Christakis" treated? How successful was he? Unless the answers are "many" and "very", I can't see any reason why anyone would listen to him.
Esp when he sounds like a lunatic, from what you quoted.
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