President Trump’s wish to open up the country by Easter and avoid a nationwide shelter-at-home policy is understandable. After all, a Covid-19-induced recession will cause its own serious health problems — depression; suicides; the damage stress will cause to those with heart disease, diabetes and other conditions, not to mention the effects of growing poverty....This is very helpful. This is the kind of talk we need right now. By contrast, I've heard quite a few commentators interpret Trump's idea of opening things up by Easter to mean that he wants to crowd the pews of churches on Easter! That's not the idea. The reopening will be done slowly and carefully, and it will not be a sudden return to the old way of living.
A nationwide shelter-in-place or quarantine should take place for the next eight to 10 weeks.... During the eight weeks of shelter-in-place, the federal government needs to produce and distribute enough tests so state and local health officials can check as many people as possible.... State and local health department[s] then need to deploy thousands of teams to trace contacts of all new Covid-19 cases... The national quarantine would give hospitals time to stock up on supplies and equipment.... States should use blood tests to certify people who have had Covid-19, are immune and are no longer contagious....
Slowly open the economy and social activities.... Lifting restrictions could start with children and young adults... Parents should be allowed to assess the risk that their children could become infected with the coronavirus and bring it home.... If the initial opening works, we should allow people in offices to go back to work in places where Covid-19 infections have died down. Businesses need to require workers to follow rules on physical distancing with fellow workers and customers.... We would then open museums and other venues to small numbers of people...
March 29, 2020
"We Can Safely Restart the Economy in June... Get tough now. Test widely to isolate those infected, and slowly revive businesses with workers and customers who have developed immunity."
Writes Ezekiel J. Emanuel in the NYT. Excerpt:
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This is very helpful. This is the kind of talk we need right now.
No, this part is NOT helpful at all. This is more alarmism. And one-size-fits-all alarmism at that.
The President floats the idea of a NYC/Tri-State shelter-in-place or quarantine for a few weeks and the commentariat freaks out. Emmanuel wants to do that nationwide -- even in areas where people already live far and apart from each other -- and now that is helpful?
Using delicious bread to serve a crap sandwich is still a crap sandwich.
And, at this point, we still do not know enough to make such definitive plans or to call for such measures. It is a week-by-week thing.
"we should allow people in offices to go back to work in places where Covid-19 infections have died down. Businesses need to require workers to follow rules on physical distancing with fellow workers and customers.... We would then open museums and other venues to small numbers of people..."
Tailoring to the NYT audience, I see. Keeping the truly important groups in mind, white collar workers and museum-goers.
Not that I disagree with what he's saying in general; other than the implication that a nationwide one-size-fits-all policy is a good idea here.
I don't know what the hell's going on. I don't know nuthin'.
The kind of talk, perhaps. But thank Trump for that. The specific talk? No. 8-10 weeks is absurdly, unnecessarily long. With a2-week incubation period, if social distancing hasn’t achieved results in 4-5 weeks, then it’s not working.
And sending the children out first? (Just because they won’t die?) Insane. Gobsmackingly, stupidly insane. They are the least likely to follow even minimal safe practices.
well dr. death panel, offers some sense, but yes that's still bleeding the patient with leaches
yes that's the basij, (Iranian child soldiers, gambit) probably the next older cohort, would work,
My inner conspiracy theorist suspects *they* would like to wipe us elderly out with tail risk. Social Security problem - solved!
It's just too easy.
A gradual reopening is clearly the right way to go, but I'm bewildered by lines like "A nationwide shelter-in-place or quarantine should take place for the next eight to 10 weeks".
Why?
There are clearly a number of places where that makes sense, but the idea of a one-size-fits-all solution for Manhattan and Montana seems ridiculous.
The gradation of restrictions should work geographically as well as over time.
Can an immune person who already had COVID and recovered still be a spreader?
"The reopening will be done slowly and carefully, and it will not be a sudden return to the old way of living."
I think a lot of people will re-think the wisdom of mass transit and "sharing" activities like Uber, bikes, scooters, offices, etc. Makes these train and trolley boondoggles even worse. At least the scooters can be packed up and removed, and no tax dollars went to them. Bikes too, though federal money went to install most of the Biblr bikes and stations. Harder to eliminate the passenger trains and trolleys and their infrastructure.
As some wise person once said, trains are good for moving two things: freight and communists.
My small business is destroyed as our work is onsite with our clients and often requires air travel. Some of our clients have simply stopped and out of business. I did what was asked. I stayed home and I complied. But there’s no unemployment, financial relief, or stimulus checks. I paid for 67 people to have stimulus checks with my taxes. I have enough savings to make it a few months. I asked my mortgage company for a forbearance and what they offered in return still sinks me. At some point, I’ll have to tap into my retirement. 7.5 years in business and if we can’t return to work by June, it’s over.
June is much too late. Easter is more reasonable, the reduction in movement will have gone on for four weeks and should have had full effect everywhere but New York City.
New York City should be locked down until September or so.
I'm confused - now America isn't saying "Pay anything! Pay everything!" ?
meawhile aaron 'tractor' Rupar and jay rosen, attack dr. birx, on word from joe lockhart, for offering some encouragement that's the end isn't near,
This is very helpful. This is the kind of talk we need right now.
Maybe, but I wouldn't praise Dr. Zeke too much.
If he gets power, you'd better start enjoying the next few years fast.
Most of the country can be opened up much before June. We need to change lockdowns from a strategy to a tactic.
Tom said...
My small business is destroyed as our work is onsite with our clients and often requires air travel.
My situation too.
I might be able to do some work online but those of my clients still working are having other problems and don't need me just now.
I could maybe do some more writing for clients but that's gonna be at the bottom of the budget.
You and I and others like us are just fucked, Tom
John Henry
It's a failure to understand the negative impact to humanity. To dismiss it with 'we'll restart the economy in June' is to expose you don't understand and aren't prepared for the consequences. That kind of thinking is what brought us the current epidemic response.
Jim gust,
Perhaps september 2039
John Henry
Zeke is always wrong. A rabid partisan. He should NEVER be on TV or interviewed by a newspaper ever again.
Tom said...
My small business is destroyed . . . if we can’t return to work by June, it’s over.
This is the reality for tens of thousands of people. Don't know any right now? You will if this goes longer than a month. Sorry you are hit like this Tom and for your employees too. The businesses that Tom uses will feel it a few months later when he is no longer using accountants or lawyers or computer tech services or suppliers, etc etc etc. .
Zeke’s unhelpful opinion is exactly what we don’t need now.
I got a whole fried chicken in the deli department today for $2.99. Shortage turns to glut.
We drove out to see the Sandhill cranes in central Nebraska. Millions of birds. One other car of four people were birdwatching. It is usually a big tourist draw.
Democrats think forcing an economic recession until November 2020 is worth it. And the inevitable, unavoidable surging economic recovery that follows in early 2021 will forever be remembered as the Biden recovery.
Similarly, Trump wants to rush us back to work so the recovery happens before the election.
Scientists only think about how to stop the spread of the virus, so they’re fine shutting us down until COVID-19 is down to zero. That’s what the models show, after all. They don’t think about other considerations or the trade-offs. An economic recessions will bring more suicides and deaths, of course, but also more domestic violence and child abuse. What do you think will happen as so many newly jobless folks who don’t know how to make rent are forced to stay indoors 24/7 in close quarters? Expect a significant uptick in those kinds of abuse cases. Also, more substance abuse.
If things aren’t fully open by May, there will be pitchforks.
Many essential workers -- even essential retail workers -- have gotten or will get 10 to 20% bumps in hourly wages, which they fully deserve. When the non essentials come back -- waiters, service they too will expect as much unless there are clear signals that the crisis id over. My question is how these costs will begin to be passed on and when can we expect to feel it?
It's the insular conceit of thinking that the whole world is like their precious big cities, which are indeed petri dishes of disease.
But heaven forbid we should suggest locking down on those cities and demand that they not spread their disease to the rest of the world.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that this is a tailor-made Well Off White People's disease. The epidemiological equivalent of Stuff White People Like.
Certainly not as deadly as Ebola (you know, from where all those poor, dark people are). Not associated with poor people breathing rat feces like Hanta virus. A nice, probably somewhat-deadlier-than-normal-influenza that WOWP can fret about, and virtue signal about, without really being in any significant danger. Plus it doesn't require any really big sacrifices on their part; "Oh, no! I have to Work From Home and deal with kids and dogs and cats and spouses doing humorous things behind me on Zoom calls! And, gosh, we are just soooooo bored; how many TV shows can we binge on and stay sane? Our emotional health is rapidly deteriorating, seriously!"
Meanwhile, the people really getting hit are the non-WOWP who were on the edge to begin with. They can't Work From Home; they can't work, period. They're not being tested for CV19 at the merest hint of a sniffle like the big celebrities are, and then getting lauded on social media for being So Brave by self-quarantining in their 5-star hotel rooms. Nah, they just apply for unemployment and hope they can pay the rent or the mortgage and buy TP and other actual necessities. They'll lose their houses and apartments and vehicles and businesses if they're out of work for 8-10 weeks, while WOWP make their stunning sacrifices of having to maybe kinda sorta home school their kids in between Zoom meetings and binge-TV and whine about it on Facebook.
Yeah, all Stuff Well Off White People like.
@Tom and John Henry - As a fellow small business owner, I sympathize with you. My guess is that as of right now we lose one-third to one-half of the small businesses in this country.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square said we need to shut down the country for 30 days. He just made $2.6 BILLION on one trade. Tom and John Henry above aren’t so lucky. Ackman is just another clueless rich Dem prick.
Personally, I like what the Rhode Island governor is doing. She's using LE to track people who arrive from NYC and insisting they self quarantine.
“Right now we have a pinpointed risk. That risk is called New York City,” said Raimondo, who signed an executive order on the matter on Thursday.
“That’s a law. That’s an order. It comes with penalties. It’s not a suggestion,” she said at a press conference on Friday.
Good for her!
The overall idea to end this lockdown is a good idea. Good on ya Ezekiel.
President Trump’s wish to open up the country by Easter and avoid a nationwide shelter-at-home policy is understandable.
This is much more than understandable, this is an even better idea - to avoid what the author describes next:
After all, a Covid-19-induced recession will cause its own serious health problems — depression; suicides; the damage stress will cause to those with heart disease, diabetes and other conditions, not to mention the effects of growing poverty.
Finally, a medical doctor with a good understanding of what the "remedy" will cause. Well done!
But, alas, here's where the good doctor slips into unsourced, bullshit panic mode:
Yet it is likely that one million Americans currently are infected with coronavirus, and if that number doubles every six days, 100 million Americans will have Covid-19 by early May. If 1 percent of those infected die, there would still be a million deaths. That’s the equivalent of what 10 Hiroshima bombs would do, or nearly double the number of annual cancer deaths.
What theoretical bush league crap. He cites nothing for this. No data, no paper, not even a passing reference to last year's flu season of 34,000 deaths.
There's not gonna be 1 million deaths in the US. To date, there are 2,200 deaths in a population of 330 Million..
Source: RCP Data.
Rahm Emanuel's brother gets credit for some good points, but then screws the pooch.
I work in the administration of a home-health-care agency, which has six offices in New Jersey.
For the past couple of years, I have been working 25 hours a week, and I continue to do so.
The offices are managed essentially by nurses, who are strict about hygiene. My office is managed by the company's head nurse.
My office is on the third story of a six-story building. I have the impression that only two or three businesses (including our agency) still are open in our building.
The large parking lots are almost empty, so the building owners are taking advantage of the situation by repaving the parking lots. So, a paving crew is employed on that project.
In normal times, anybody could walk into our building. Now the outside doors are locked, and everyone has to punch in a code to enter.
In normal times, our home health aides came into our office to discuss matters. Now none are allowed to do so. They have to discuss matters by telephone or in conversations outside the building.
My office -- the company's main office -- has about 20 staff members. That number is being reduced gradually. Several members have been laid off or been reduced to half-time -- some of them at their own request.
I manage the company's unemployment claims. Since such claims are rising and will rise, I am still "essential" in the eyes of the company president.
On Friday, I helped three staff members initiate unemployment claims, because their schedules are being reduced from 40 to 20 hours a week. I think that these reductions were at their own request. These particular staff members are extremely worried about catching the virus. Two are from India and one is from Korea, and they always -- long before this virus -- have been very concerned about hygiene and health. I think all three would prefer to stay home completely if they could.
When I come to work, I am supposed to put on rubber gloves when I leave home. When I arrive at the office's front door, I throw the rubber gloves into a garbage can and wash my hands with sanitizer lotion.
The staff members who open a lot of mail have been required to wear face masks and rubber gloves. Otherwise, wearing such gear has been optional. Some staff members choose to wear such gear, and some do not. Some are wearing, additionally, jackets with hoods.
On Friday, I wore a face mask for the first time. One had been placed on my desk, and I decided to wear it just for the experience. I do not intend to wear a mask again in the office.
=====
Nobody in the office has a cough problem.
I suffered a heart attack at the end of January. During the previous weeks, I had suffered a persistent cough, which evidently was caused by my heart problem. I had thought that my cough was caused by asthma, but my cardiologist said that the cough was an indication that "a problem was brewing with your heart".
After my heart surgery (no blocked vessels, but my aortic valve had to be replaced), I continued to suffer a persistent cough for two or three weeks. Such a post-surgery cough is common after such surgeries. However, now my cough problem is gone.
In retrospect, the timing of my heart attack was fortuitous. If my chronic cough had continued, I would not be allowed to continue working in the office.
I am so looking forward to the future! A nation that has demonstrated a profound capacity for eliminating incremental risk now has fantastic opportunities to do more! It wasn't enough to recommend seatbelts to reduce incremental risk, we had to make it MANDATORY! By this logic, we can mandate masks and gloves 100% of the time! For the grannies! For the children! For the sake of one life! And we can do so much more! The lawyers haven't been born yet who will settle all the liability suits.
Zeke is not helping.
"The reopening will be done slowly and carefully, and it will not be a sudden return to the old way of living"
The reopening needs to happen very soon. Wasting trillions and crashing the entire economy is not justified.
But no return to the old way: isolate seniors and sick people for a few more months. Everybody practice healthy habits. Minimize risk and costs.
All major cities should be under quarantine at least for several weeks.
There will be a time to go back to work, and we'll know it when it arrives. Pointing at June is no smarter that pointing at Easter. It's just someone else's wild ass guess.
Meanwhile, Piece of Shit Washington Post, after blasting Trump for not using his emergency authority, is running headlines like this --
Trump sows confusion with efforts to invoke presidential powers to fight coronavirus
As the virus spreads across the country, there are growing questions about how far his authority extends, and how much he plans to use it.
8 more weeks of this is unsustainable. People won't stand for it. When this first started I saw 'experts' talking about closings with a two week timeframe attached. By the time Gov. Evers decided to shut down Wisconsin it was a month. Even that seems out of line. Now this clown is talking about two months added on to the week (or weeks, depending on how soon your governor went power-mad) we've undergone already. This reminds me of something Evers said when he announced that 'didn't forsee Wisconsin going into shelter-in-place' (which BTW was on Friday and by Monday it was a necessity): he assured us that "we will be following the science on this". Except there is no science on this. There is science behind the predictions of how fast it will spread, etc. But that is science based on models of a virus that is still barely known, so there is room for doubt as to how accurate those models are. There is no science on how to balance the medical response to the economic costs. That's purely Evers decision and he shouldn't/can't hide behind the scientist's while coats if he makes the wrong decision. And he should also be balancing the costs to our freedoms and constitutional rights. While I'm giving the governor some benefit of the doubt, I will be judged by the voters in hindsight so he better hope the our willingness to go along with these actions outlasts the unemployment benefits.
When you realize all this nationwide 2-month lockdown is meant to do is ruin the economy and ensure Trump loses in November, it all makes sense.
Here is a POS Washington Post headline confirming that Emanuel's fellow big city types are determined to break out and infect us all, necessitating a nationwide lockdown --
The Great American Migration of 2020: On the move to escape the coronavirus
Even as most people stay close to home, millions of others have been on the move, a mass migration that looks urgent and temporary but might contain the seeds of a wholesale shift in where and how Americans live. But virus fugitives often are running into fierce opposition on their routes.
Does not appear that the Post questions one iota the safety of these people fleeing the hot zones.
"My guess is that as of right now we lose one-third to one-half of the small businesses in this country."
The Democrats were hoping to close all of them, but even half is a good start.
Oops, bad proofreading. I will not be judged by the voters, Governor Evers will be.
Yet it is likely that one million Americans currently are infected with coronavirus, and if that number doubles every six days, 100 million Americans will have Covid-19 by early May.
You have to wonder when this piece was written.
It seems that a lot of the alarmism is doing nothing more than continuing a narrative that was constructed weeks ago.
Each passing day teaches us how little we know about dealing with a pandemic. Critics of our current actions, who were silent while the pandemic spread, are everywhere. Democrats, who were enthralled with impeachment as the coronavirus advanced, now offer criticism without constructive alternatives.
How many on this blog were concerned with the coronavirus in early January (or even February)? Which events in our history should have warned us as a nation to stockpile face masks, ventilators and hydroxychloroquine? (Or toilet paper?) How many among us predicted the consequences of offshoring the manufacturing of America's health industry supplies and pharmaceuticals?
I appreciate that the posted article offers suggestions and possible alternatives. But the truth is we are in uncharted waters. We're stuck with this situation. We'll likely need to grope our way through this dark situation as we learn from both our failures and successes. It's time to lead, follow or get out of way. The cheap shots and quiet yearning for the failure of your political opponents need to end.
"We drove out to see the Sandhill cranes in central Nebraska. Millions of birds. One other car of four people were birdwatching. It is usually a big tourist draw."
In Wisconsin they cancelled the annual crane count.
It's really quite surprising, that the cure for Covid-19 is the same as the cure for Global Warming. What can't Left Fascism do?
“ There are clearly a number of places where that makes sense, but the idea of a one-size-fits-all solution for Manhattan and Montana seems ridiculous”
I didn’t quote the whole article. He does have variations by place and exceptions even during the initial 8 weeks.
ersey Fled said...
Most of the country can be opened up much before June. We need to change lockdowns from a strategy to a tactic.
The "fly over" part of the country can be back running before May 1. NYC and Chicago and LA (which still has not got testing going well) should be quarantined until Summer.
Tommy Duncan @ 10:13: Very well said. Thank you!
Politicized science is still nothing more than politics.
And too much of our "science" has become politicized.
Hear, Hear Anthony!
Anthony said...
Yeah, all Stuff Well Off White People like.
3/29/20, 9:53 AM
While you're entirely right, in another sense this disease is exposing the utter uselessness of urban elites. You can keep most of the fedgov, financial/ entertainment industries, and office drones out of work and no one would care. The true heroes in this crisis are the people working retail, trucking, and production. Where actual goods need to get in the hands of actual Americans. This productive class is not going to tolerate the urban leeches locking down the economy until June while David Geffen smugly posts from his yacht, Michelle Obama plans a GOTV couch party, and the cheques keep coming for the "comfortable" elites like lawyers. It's more likely that President Trump will encourage the actual workers to reach for nooses and pitchforks.
As you remember, Zeke Emanuel wants to die at 75, and is the coronavirus adviser to Joe Biden. His advice shows what a horrorshow Biden would be as President, and is one extremely strong argument for listening to Trump. The President would be well advised to slowly unlock the productive regions of the country that don't have large urban centers. There are currently half as many China Flu deaths in Marion, Indiana as all of Canada has, so this should be done carefully. But urban enclaves like Los Angeles, Seattle, and ESPECIALLY NYC need to be locked down tightly, with governors strongly encouraged to track and repatriate Americans trying to flee those enclaves. This is your moment, Mr. President.
This is a socialist wet dream.
States should use blood tests to certify people who have had Covid-19
Imagine if states did this for AIDS, then tell me again that it is helpful.
As usual, commentators don’t comprehend large numbers. We had 3million unemployed last week. So just for the sake of taking a number, let’s say 3million a week. Using the 10 weeks as the authors ( and super smart guy bill Gates says, I’m sure this is where this is coming from). That is 30 million unemployed. And that is assuming that it did at accelerate. We are talking depression here, not recession.
Things can easily spiral out of control. It’s a horrible idea.
Read this: https://rightwisconsin.com/2020/03/27/liberty-vs-safety-pandemic-response-raises-tough-legal-questions
Continuing my comment at 9:57 AM
=================================
I manage the unemployment claims for the home-health-care agency where I work. We have six offices in New Jersey and about 1,000 employees. More than 900 of those employees are home health aides.
A feature of the aides' employment is that all their assignments are temporary. Almost all the clients are elderly and weak, and eventually they all are hospitalized or they die or they go to live with their adult children. Then the aides are reassigned to other clients.
So, between their assignments, the aides are unemployed and can initiate unemployment aides and collect unemployment benefits. The benefits ultimately are charged to the employer, and such charges are a significant expense for our agency.
It's my job to dispute the claims and benefits. For example, I argue to the unemployment office that the aides have rejected new assignments that we have offered.
The epidemic's effect on our unemployment claims has developed in ways that have surprised me.
In many cases, our elderly clients have moved out of their own apartments and into the homes of their adult children. Since the clients no longer are living alone, they no longer need home health aides.
One big reason why the elderly clients have moved to their children's homes is that the elderly clients fear that the home health aides will bring the virus into the clients' apartments.
Meanwhile, the aides fear that they themselves will catch the virus while working in the clients' homes. So, there is a mutual agreement among the clients, the clients' families and the aides that the clients should move into their adult children's homes.
In general, aides are worried that they will catch the virus in their clients' homes or in their commuting. Many aides travel by bus to and from their clients' homes. In these circumstances, aides prefer to get out of their assignments, to stay home and to collect unemployment benefits. They lose some income, but they feel safer for themselves and for their own families.
I expect that disputing unemployment claims in such situations will be mostly futile. The government's unemployment examiners who decide such disputes probably will agree with the aides' arguments and so will approve the claims. At this point, I am only guessing about that, because such disputes still have not matured to official decisions.
I have sent e-mails to the other offices suggesting arguments to persuade the aides to continue working. Unemployment benefits are less than wages, and eventually the maximum benefits are collected. I provide the arithmetic to show that income will be much higher by continuing to work. Even if the aide works less and collects only partial-unemployment benefits, the income will be much higher over the course of a year.
I figure that making such persuasive arguments to keep working will be more effective that trying to dispute the claims.
Zeke told me to die the last time I heard from him...
So, you people believe this is an overblown hoax? You need to apologize to Drago then.
Sit tight, we'll know for sure which way the trend is bending in a couple weeks. I'm rooting for hoax.
“ It's really quite surprising, that the cure for Covid-19 is the same as the cure for Global Warming. What can't Left Fascism do?”
I’ve thought a lot about this the last couple weeks. If you’re a climate alarmist, you’re apt to be more supportive of harsh quarantines and shutdowns, economy be damned. It’s sort of amazing, actually, how little evidence was needed for governments to destroy the economy through extraordinary, extreme actions. In the case of the US, at least, a lot of the states have done raise constitutional questions about federalism, property rights, etc.
This is, absent such specific dates, exactly what several of us have been saying here.
Lost jobs can come back, if we use government financing to prevent liquidations and foreclosures. Dead people cannot come back.
The economy can survive a few weeks lost production if its structures are not thrown into chaos. That is the plan. Letting millions get seriously ill at once and unpredictably risks far more damage to the economy and the supply chain.
Making about Donald Trump is what does not help. We need people to understand how little we know for sure. We need doubt. But you inject Donald Trump into any conversation and suddenly everyone knows for sure and no one doubts.
“How many suicides are acceptable, Zeke?” asked the earnest journalist.
the federal government needs to produce - The Federal Government does not produce, it procures.
No doubt that "Trump lied, people died" isn't too far behind in Dem/progressive circles.
Pelosi today: As Trump fiddles people die.
So, you people believe this is an overblown hoax?
They just keep on going with their bad faith smears.
No one has suggested that. No one.
@Tom and John Henry - As a fellow small business owner, I also sympathize with you. Certainly if we shut down for 10 weeks we will lose one half. I support dental offices, they are completely shut down and they have quite a large number of employees per office. They will all be laid off and without leniency, they will not be able to pay their large fixed costs and will be forced to close. This will be the second, third, fiourth, etc wave.
Hmm I’m talking myself out of the tentative stock purchases that I made last week.
Oso Negro said...
My guess is that as of right now we lose one-third to one-half of the small businesses in this country.
I'd not thought of it till now but perhaps that's the point of the whole exercise.
Small businesses and independent contractors like myself are a royal pain in the ass to local state and federal govt.
They've always wanted to see us go away.
A relatively few large businesses run by people without much ownership stake are a lot easier to deal with than millions of small, owner operated, businesses where each new regulation, each new tax, comes directly out of the owners pocket.
John Henry
Roughcoat said...
I don't know what the hell's going on. I don't know nuthin'
Good for you. I am serious. No one knows. All we can do is balance different risks and costs based on the best information availabile. Doubt is a good thing when certainty is irrational.
Contagion threatens to enter into the comments.
Time to sanitize.
Once again, I feel that people don't understand Trump. He's not a politician at heart. He's a deal maker.
A politician would say "it is important for us to get the economy going again as soon as we can, but as safely as we can."
The deal maker says, "We want the economy firing on all cylinders by Easter!". Trump is getting all kinds of input about the perils of starting too soon, or delaying too long. All day long. From leaders in medicine, and captains of industry. But he's not hearing the whole story. He knows that. And he's not hearing from everyone. So, he puts out there, "let's get things restarted by Easter". That's his opening offer. Then he expects to get more feedback from the people he's already hearing from, and those he's NOT hearing from about why that date is good or bad. Then he knows how to respond. It's all about getting the feedback he needs to be able to learn what he should do and offer next.
Frankly, it's probably a much better way to do things. But no politician would ever do it this way.
Emmanuel is like steve martin's medieval barber, I don't trust him to remove the leaches soon enough,
Zeke Emmanuel's most consistent idea is that he and his kind weigh values, make plans, and give orders to everyone, and we all follow meekly at whatever cost.
Tommy Duncan 10:13
+1
Other than the date, it’s pretty much just common sense, isn’t it?
It’s nice to see that Zeke isn’t going with his old saw about letting the 75+ year-olds die. I guess that’s because he’s hit 75.
I see Chuck is back with his usual pointless drivel.
On a slightly different note, 0.02% of the population is confirmed to have contracted the coronavirus in the county where I live, 100 miles from NYC.
Nation-wide shelter in place policy?
I don't think so.
The deal maker says, "We want the economy firing on all cylinders by Easter!". Trump is getting all kinds of input
Now what will it take to do it right? This is analogous to JFK's goal for a moon mission. Prudence and boldness are the American way.
Zeke is the ghoul who was dismissive of anything to extend life beyond 75. So it figures he can be pretty cavalier about shutting down the economy for 3 months. The cost of even a few weeks is enormous, but that will go up exponentially (that word again) with every additional week. Meanwhile the health benefits will diminish, and probably never were worth a complete lockdown. Just isolate the most vulnerable as much as possible, and throw a lot of resources into adding capacity to hospitals.
Boy, you guys just don't get it, Althouse.
This 8-10 week lockdown plan just won't work. All of this plan defies basic human nature. The rebellion against these plans is already starting in the states that have implemented it, and it only took a week for it start happening, and it will only get worse. Lockdown Breaking is a social virus that spreads rapidly. You basically get, maybe, a week or two of 80% compliance, but after that it quickly falls under 50%, and then even more rapidly falls to 20% of the most personally vulnerable. To make that sort of plan work would require the police to shoot people in the streets because you won't be able to lock them all up.
The best plan all along was to house the COVID sufferers in their own facilities with their own dedicated staff. Stop all visits to nursing homes. Rigorously test, every day or every other day, all the staff that work in the hospitals and nursing homes. Rigorously test all the government and private personnel that deal physically with the people who end up in the hospitals. Encourage people to wear masks everywhere they go, and give them the masks ASAP- this would still run into the compliance problem, but not one nearly as bad, and you probably wouldn't need to use the force of law to implement it.
What you will end up with Emanuel's plan is the absolute worse outcome- an economy with 50% unemployment after the "lockdown" towel is thrown in after it fails, and basically the same curve you would have gotten without it in the first place.
Ok, so says some guy from the NYT. What has Paul Krugman say? He's a GENIUS and he's always right. Him and Bill Kristol. Also, interested in Michelle Goldberg opinion.
"Which events in our history should have warned us as a nation to stockpile face masks, ventilators and hydroxychloroquine? (Or toilet paper?) How many among us predicted the consequences of offshoring the manufacturing of America's health industry supplies and pharmaceuticals?"
We always fight the last war. But fixing these issues means doing what we have already started to do, which is to bring companies, jobs, and manufacturing back to the US. Especially medical supply and drug manufacturing. We need to look at all the industries where we are now dependent on global trade to supply what we actually need. Focus on them first.
We're already good on the TP self-sufficiency. Lots of timber and pulp mills in northern Wisconsin. Lots of rolls coming to a store near you soon.
"Pelosi today: As Trump fiddles people die.”
As Pelosi impeached, people died. See how easy that is?
the times does the best impression of the indian, in cuckoo's nest
David Begley says all that needs to be said at 0946: "Zeke is always wrong. A rabid partisan. He should NEVER be on TV or interviewed by a newspaper ever again."
Just look at what happened yesterday when Trump simply floated the idea of quarantine on the areas where the virus is doing its worst. The pushback was immediate and strong.
“ Lockdown Breaking is a social virus that spreads rapidly.”
It is. And it is exacerbated by fools insisting there is no risk and that quarantine doesn’t work.
We need to start unlocking the lockdown. IT was crazy to lock down whole states when only parts of the state were effected, and it was crazy to lock down rural states. Further, some of the closures were absurd. Fore example, why were Golf courses shut down? They can easily operate while maintaining "social distancing" - the same is true of small business.
Maybe the way aroudn much of the lockdown is simply mandate people wear masks.
Has Hug a Chinaman Day been cancelled?
Howard wrote: “So, you people believe this is an overblown hoax? You need to apologize to Drago then.”
Who said that? “You people.” Really?
It’s probably not the virus, but something is eating Howard’s brain.
Howard said...
Sit tight, we'll know for sure which way the trend is bending in a couple weeks. I'm rooting for hoax.
GMTA
see howard, we don't always disagree.
The real question is who caused the hoax: state and local govts with their lockdowns?
The press with their fearmongering?
Or ORANGE MAN BAAAAAD!!!
John Henry
Step 1. Spot a trend and get in front of it
Step 2. When the trend has positive results claim credit
“ Rigorously test”
Exactly right. That's Dr Zeke's plan too. But we have not had enough tests, and we still don’t. We need both live virus tests and serum tests, and we need to be able to get rapid results.
Remember this is all about "Flattening the curve" - the virus will spread no matter what and thousands will die no matter what. We're just trying to reduce the numbers by extending the time line.
Looking at the numbers it looks like most people get the disease aren't hospitalized and the ratio of deaths to Hospitalization is no more that 10%.
Every person who has ever managed a team of people successfully will understand the issues far better than one who has not. Just because one is in a position of authority doesn't mean shit unless that one is literally the judge and executioner, too. You have to pick pragmatic goals, and an 8-10 week lockdown just doesn't meet this bar.
Seriously, have you not seen all the videos from New York City from just the last 2 days?
the idea of quarantine on the areas where the virus is doing its worst. The pushback was immediate and strong.
No longer selective, opportunistic. Suddenly, disparate impact is an issue. The PC religion is, in principle, internally, externally, and mutually inconsistent.
I didn't understand Cuomo's hysterical reaction to the NYC quarantine. Isn't NYC locked down? Aren't most New Yorkers NOT supposed to travel? Commerce was unaffected. You wonder why the over-reaction. Maybe because its the rich and well-to-do that are the ones fleeing NYC?
I agree with those who say that telling Americans that they have to lockdown for another couple of months is asking for people to start ignoring the whole idea. Two weeks or a month has or will work, but if there aren't changes by Easter there will be some "rioting."
The numbers are all trending toward the conclusion that most of the country can resume normal activity while using common sense. In addition some treatments are getting to the point where their viability is obvious. NYC, LA, Chicago and few other metropolitan areas will have to be treated differently, but the bulk of the country should be able to move back toward normal.
is there a reason, why ANYONE would listen a word in the NYT?
"Exactly right. That's Dr Zeke's plan too. But we have not had enough tests, and we still don’t."
No, not exactly right, Ken. We are wasting the testing resources in trying to test all the people with flu-like symptoms. In doing this, we haven't been able to test the people most likely to pass the infection to the most vulnerable part of the population.
People with flu like symptoms need to just isolate themselves at home- the prescription that would be offered regardless of a positive test, or not- so you don't need a test for such a person. The only such people who get such a test should be at least 50 years old, and probably 60 years old, or have a diagnosed serious co-morbidity. You see the problem pretty much everywhere- the medical staff aren't being tested because the testing resources are being consumed illogically.
I've heard quite a few commentators interpret Trump's idea of opening things up by Easter to mean that he wants to crowd the pews of churches on Easter! That's not the idea. The reopening will be done slowly and carefully, and it will not be a sudden return to the old way of living.
That's because the media intentionally puts that concept out there as a 24/7 drum beat. But you know that.
Fore example, why were Golf courses shut down?
The "fore" is appropriate for this stray shot.
Yes, on its own, shutting down golf courses with people spaced out in the open air is stupid.
On the other hand, there is a "we all have to kick in" element at play too. People don't like knowing that others get exceptions.
Shorter Chuck,
(slurp, slurp) "oh my but your ass tastes good this morning, Ann. Let me get my tongue in there a bit deeper. Oh yeeaahhh. That sure is yummy."(more slurping noises)
John Henry
Just this morning, Maryland reported another nursing home infected because the visitors and/or the staff brought the virus into the facility and infected the old and sick who reside there.
While I appreciate his measured tone, Ezekiel is wrong. There is no sense in a one-size-fits-all nationwide decision, much less for eight weeks. The current social distancing is working well, and the next steps have to do with better testing and treatment. Local authorities can require more if their situations require it.
Zeke is the ghoul who was dismissive of anything to extend life beyond 75.
Interesting, a known advocate of planned parenthood and also planned parent.
That said, we need to know the transmission sources, mechanisms, and paths in order to effectively mitigate its progress. Also, diversity distributions. Viruses are notorious bigots.
"On the other hand, there is a "we all have to kick in" element at play too. People don't like knowing that others get exceptions."
Which is kind of hilarious given that the exact same people expect their online grocery orders to continue to be delivered.
The more that various treatments, such as hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, show promise, especially in high profile cases, such as David Lat most recently, the more that people -- even those on the left -- are going to tell the partisan Dems to "shut the fuck up" about all the alarmism.
A tiny seed of hope can defeat many evils.
Yancey
In other words, we don’t have enough tests. If we have to triage tests then we do not have enough tests.
Trump wants to go back to social distancing in low risk areas.
Not enough people have noticed that we've gone from social distancing to stay inside your house....
...which makes it worse in multiple ways.
Don't even get me started on the people that think this economy can remain in a holding pattern until this is over.
And don't get me started on what the criteria is for this to be over.
ny one number plucked out of thin air is just as good as any other. The important thing is that it can't be President Trump's number, because his must be foolishly wrong.
This is a lot like the Democrat candidates' discussion of what they would do about our endless wars. None of them could be seen to agree with our President, so they said (in essence) "I would do what he's doing, only in an intelligent way, instead of his dumb way".
There is little evidence that shelter in place has any significant impact on the spread. There is significant evidence that once exposed, 80% don't get infected, and of the 20%, half show zero symptoms and most of the other half show only mild symptoms and recover on their own. Of the small percentage that show more severe symptoms, only the small fraction that do die, have other problems that would likely kill them shortly anyway.
Politicians are loving the control they have been able to inflict on people and they will do it again. If it saves just one life...
By the way, have the Turks genocidally murdered all the sweet, bambified, Syrian Kurds yet? The MSM have been strangely quiet.
I live on the Big Island of Hawaii. Population is about 150,000. Ten people have tested positive for covid-19, up three from yesterday. Statewide, there are 151 cases, which have resulted in 12 hospitalizations. No deaths.
We are under a stay-at-home order, and the state is seriously considering blocking inter-island travel. This is insane.
clint said There are clearly a number of places where that makes sense, but the idea of a one-size-fits-all solution for Manhattan and Montana seems ridiculous.
Exactly. Not everyplace is like NYC. We don't need these draconian lockdown policies in many areas.
Again. The Stats for my county. Population 190,000 3847 square miles
The next county over is about 5 miles from my house is 4203 so miles population 9020 people...ZERO cases. Yeah I'm in bumf*ck nowhere and love it!!!
Number of confirmed cases of Corona as of today 4. It went up from 3 at the beginning of the week. That is a 33% increase in one week. OMG RUN FOR THE HILLS...oh..wait...I'm already there.
People need to get a grip.
"In other words, we don’t have enough tests. If we have to triage tests then we do not have enough tests."
Don't be fucking dense, Ken. I never said we had enough tests, I said that the ones we are using are being misused everywhere- in other words, we aren't triaging them when we should have been. You are getting as tiresome as Inga usually is, and you are worse than she has been during the last two weeks.
they deleted his profile from the who site
rcocean said..."I didn't understand Cuomo's hysterical reaction to the NYC quarantine. Isn't NYC locked down?"
Elderly (and other) New Yorkers are fleeing the state by the tens of thousands. Cuomo needs to continue to get these people elsewhere and off HIS coronavirus tally so they don't F up his presidential aspirations.
Lets use some perspective and common sense.
The total area of the two counties where I live and within a stones throw. (not literally but close enough)
8050 square miles. Population approx 200,000 Mostly concentrated in a few towns/cities
New Jersey.
8729 square miles. Population 8.9 MILLION
Not the same thing at all.
there are more knee jerk reactions than Strangelove
Continuing my comments at 9:57 and 10:25 AM
===========================================
The coronavirus epidemic might become disastrous for the home-health-care agency where I work in New Jersey.
Practically all our clients are receiving our service through Medicaid.
In past years, we paid our aides more than the minimum wage. For example, there was a period when the minimum wage was $8.40 an hour and we paid $9.50 an hour.
Since our Republican governor Chris Christie was replaced by Democrat governor Phil Murphy, the minimum wage is being raised relentlessly. It was raised to $10.00 on January 1, 2019, and then to $10.50 on July 1 and then to $11.00 on January 1, 2020. I don't know what the schedule is for further raises, but the Democrats' ultimate goal seems to be at least $15.00.
In the meantime, the NJ state government has not raised Medicaid compensation to home-health-care agencies accordingly. State law has required agencies to raise the hourly wage to our aides from $9.50 to $11.00 while continuing the same Medicaid compensation to the agencies. This squeeze will put many agencies out of business.
The state government has intended to raise the compensation, but there is not enough money in the state budget. There sure will not be enough money during and after the coronavirus epidemic.
In my previous comment, I explained that many aides are trying to get out of their assignments. They prefer to stay home and collect unemployment benefits. If our agency cannot provide aides for all our clients, then we will lose many of those clients. Many clients might switch to other agencies or move in to their adult children's homes or simply do without our service.
So, our agency is being squeezed by the rising minimum wage and also increasingly by the loss of our clients.
One theoretical solution would be to raise the aides' wages, at least temporarily during the epidemic. Some big employers (e.g. Target) have raised wages by $2 an hour as "hazard pay". Our company would like to do so, but we simply cannot. We can barely pay the $11 minimum wage. To raise our wage to $13 would cause our company to run a deficit of $100,000 every week. On Friday, I was assigned to research possibilities to apply for a loan from the Small Business Administration.
Our company was doing very well a year ago. Now the outlook is very bleak. I am sure that no other agencies are doing any better. I think all the agencies must be facing possible bankruptcy.
Hawaii. . . . We are under a stay-at-home order, and the state is seriously considering blocking inter-island travel.
If you can hold out for one incubation period, you can strangle it in the crib.
But then, any planes coming from the mainland -- if allowed at all -- ought to be shunted off to a special terminal which then herds people into quarantine hotels.
Testing plateauing at the moment- probably a physical bottleneck somewhere:
Link
Continuing my comment at 11:19 AM
=====
One staff member was allowed to apply for unemployment benefits because her adult son has become sick with the virus. The staff member wants to to live with the son and take care of him. We will not dispute this unemployment claim.
I know that a couple other staff members have been laid off. They work in other offices. I do not know the exact reasons, but I have the impression that the company's budget compels layoffs or at least reductions. Those staff members who are least essential are being cut first, and this culling will continue gradually.
The company ultimately will have to pay for the unemployment benefits, but a year or two in the future. Right now, the salaries can be cut.
======
An laid-off employee collects unemployment benefits that are about 60% of usual earnings. The benefits last six months. The government might extend that maximum, but has not done so yet.
The aides themselves are poor and live hand-to-mouth. They cannot afford a 60% reduction of income. That desperation is keeping many of them on the job even though they might feel much safer staying home and collecting unemployment benefits.
Also, most aides feel loyal to their clients. Aides like doing work of this kind because they like to take care of other people. An aide who has been taking care of an old person does not want to abandon that old person, despite the risk of becoming infected.
The typical aide is an immigrant woman whose children now ere enrolled in school and who now can work outside the home for the first time. This might be her first job in her life. Many of the aides cannot speak English well enough to get any other kind of job.
The typical client likewise is an immigrant woman, but much older. The client might have adult children, but she lives alone in an apartment. The client is so old and weak that she needs an aide to come to the apartment to help her for two or three hours a day. Otherwise the client will have to be moved into an old-people's home, which will be much more expensive for Medicaid.
The aide and client talk with each other in their native languages -- Russian, Spanish, Korean or some Asian-Indian language. Neither woman can speak English well. The aide and client have become friends, and so the service will continue, despite the aide's and client's fears of catching the virus from each other.
I think that is the main reasons why enough aides are continuing to work despite their fears of the virus. Those are the reasons why our agency continues to survive financially, for now.
Yes, a place like Hawaii will probably want to stop flights in from the mainland and elsewhere, but there is a price to be paid, probably- no immunity going forward.
Mike S.
I use to hear UI claims at the Nebraska Department of Labor as an ALJ. Appeal!
Let's remember the whole point of shutdowns or sheltering in place.
We do not want to overwhelm the hospitals and create hospital contagion. We want to keep the healthcare system running as effectively as possible under these conditions which also means attending to people with injuries and illnesses NOT related to COVID-19.
The important data point is hospitalization. When that curve starts to flatten we can start ending some of the current restrictions.
I was assigned to research possibilities to apply for a loan from the Small Business Administration.
That SBA loan is actually the federal government picking up the tab on your payroll.
It's a convoluted system of employer gets a loan. Loan is totally forgiven if used to pay employees. Government pays the loan.
That's how you get a $2 trillion price tag.
The new relief act is aimed at encouraging employers to maintain their workforce rather than dumping them onto unemployment.
Meanwhile, most of the UI rules and regulations are out the window.
Old practice and procedures do not apply for the next several months.
Part of my job last week was reading the 880 pages of the CARES Act which Congress passed and the President signed on Friday.
Fun.
Not.
And a lot of the provisions are retroactive.
Francisco D
Right. This is not the permanent approach going forward. It is to avert a catastrophe until we can do better. Like shutting of the power when a circuit starts sparking and smoking. And I agree hospitalization is probably the single most important metric.
another 'you have to vote for it, to find out what's in it' a spring surprise from the makers of whizzo chocolates,
CARES Bill Provisions
Relief to employers to maintain workforce in their jobs
section 1102 – loans available to non-profits at four percent interest
1106 – loans are forgivable if used for payroll and operating costs, lots of paperwork, requires approval, etc., government to pay the loan
Relief to individuals
2102 – Unemployment benefits for individuals that self-certify they are unable to work because of the emergency having closed their place of business or they are affected or caring for someone, etc. Does not include those able to telework with pay or are receiving sick pay, etc.
2107 – Unemployment benefits for individuals that have no rights to regular compensation.
2201 – Tax credit of $1,200 per individual plus $500 for dependent children
2202 – Rules for retirement plans, including modifying withdrawal and distribution rules.
Employer provisions
2301 – Employee retention credit against employment taxes of 50 percent of qualified wages paid up to $10,000 for employer that experienced significant decline in gross receipts.
2301 – Payment of employer payroll taxes due through 2020 is deferred to Dec. 31, 2021 for 50 percent of the amount due, and Dec. 21, 2022 for the other 50 percent.
3601 – Emergency family and medical leave limited to $200 per day and $10,000 total.
3602 – Emergency sick leave limited to $200-511 per day, and $2,000 to $5110 total, depending on the reason for the leave.
3606 – Advance on payroll credit for emergency paid sick leave and family leave.
The important data point is hospitalization.
I've been saying that since the beginning. It's a hard data point, yet is not reported.
Too focused on testing and modeling.
Actually the best idea would be to limit the non stop 24/7 panic porn by the news media for two months. Say, limit their blathering to 1 hour in the morning and then a recap at 5:30pm. It is slowly being made irrelevant anyway due to its unreliability and naked partisanship.
That would give the leadership and local authorities the breathing space to do their jobs and make the best decision for their area of the country. This non-stop, panic mongering is notably unhelpful.
Ken B: "Francisco D
Right. This is not the permanent approach going forward. It is to avert a catastrophe until we can do better."
It is estimated that 78 to 80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck.
How long can they be forced to go without income?
Relief under the Federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act
Federal Emergency Paid Sick Leave Act
• Applies to employers with fewer that 500 employees.
• Requires provision of up to two weeks of paid leave (80 hours for fulltime employees, prorated for part-time) to qualified employees at rate of 2/3 to full pay depending upon reason for leave. Leave under the Act is in addition to leave already provided under employee benefits.
• Tax credits are available for the cost of providing leave.
• Paid sick leave may be used for persons (a) who are experiencing COVID symptoms, (b) who are caring for an affected family member, (c) whose children are home because of closed schools, or (d) who are under an isolation order or are self-quarantining.
Federal Emergency Family and Medical Leave Expansion Act
• Enacts additional provisions in addition to the federal Family and Medical Leave Act, which still apply.
• Applies to employers with fewer that 500 employees. Businesses with less than 50 employees may be granted an exemption.
• Persons who have employed for at least 30 days are eligible.
• The first ten days of leave under the Act may be unpaid, but the employee may elect to substitute any accrued paid leave (vacation, personal, medical or sick leave), but employee cannot be required to substitute paid for unpaid leave. After ten days of such leave, the employer must provide paid leave at a rate of no less than two-thirds of the employee’s salary.
• Leave under the Act may be used because of the employee is unable to work (or telework) due to a need for leave to care for an affected family member or their children if their school is closed, or because of need to quarantine.
• Tax credits are available for the cost of providing leave.
Gk1: "Actually the best idea would be to limit the non stop 24/7 panic porn by the news media for two months."
It's about to get much much worse as the dems/LLR's crank up Michigan-Is-The-New-Ukraine impeachment ploy.
Mark said...
Are businesses still liable to repay the loan if they are forced to dissolve due to prolonged shutdown?
“There are clearly a number of places where that makes sense, but the idea of a one-size-fits-all solution for Manhattan and Montana seems ridiculous.”
Population density of Manhattan: 72,918/sq mile
Population density of Montana: ............7/sq mile
The population density of Manhattan is roughly 10,000 as that of Montana (our county is less than 2/sq mi, making Manhattan 35kX). 70kX for Alaska (@1/sq mi)
Shorter Ann
"go away, Chuck"
John Henry
"Actually the best idea would be to limit the non stop 24/7 panic porn by the news media for two months."
I am self-isolating from the news. I have stopped watching any news programs.
Seriously, have you not seen all the videos from New York City from just the last 2 days?
I saw a picture yesterday of a line of people waiting outside the ER of Elmhurst Hospital in NYC to get tested. They were pretty densely packed. Anyone who didn't have the virus when they got in the line probably had it by the time they got in.
Emanuel and the Dems might be operating from the mindset of "well, we have enacted legislation for people to be government dependents for the next four months, as a practice run for full-time communism, so we might as well keep everything shuttered for that time anyway."
Mark: "The new relief act is aimed at encouraging employers to maintain their workforce rather than dumping them onto unemployment."
After receiving $25M from the Cares Act passage, the good lefties at the DC-based National Symphony Orchestra immediately let every musician go.
Every one.
Like the hack democrat Gov of Michigan and the hack democrat Mayor of New Orleans (who literally blamed Trump for allowing Mardi Gras to go on!), the directors will blame orangemanbad.
Browndog -- the businesses do NOT repay the loan.
The loan is forgiven if used for payroll and operating expenses.
The government pays the loan.
If anyone is interested, I have a link to a podcast on NYC status of the epidemic at Chicagoboyz.
No comments on anything but politics here.
No doubt a LOT of this $2 trillion will go towards abuse and corruption and greed.
Living in the pugetopolis and being close to Kirkland and the outbreak center for the US there, I personally find the state at Evergreen hospital to be possibly indicative of what is happening here in Wasnhington state as far as the WuhFlu goes. Over the last week, Evergreen is only seeing one or two new WuhFlu patients a day, their ICU is only about half-full - and all are NOT WuhFlu patients - and WuhFlu patients are recoovering and getting released. You can find their current stats by putting evergreen hospital covid-19 in your browser search.
So things are looking up here at what was ground zero at the Life Care Center in Kirkland. What is interesting is that they have admitted in our local press that the infection came in via the staff.
As far as Ezekial is concerned, he can just Go to Hell. He already told me in fairly plain language that he thinks I should just die already - I say him first. Be a pal, lead by example just once in your elitist life.
CARES Bill Provisions
Relief to employers to maintain workforce in their jobs
section 1102 – loans available to non-profits at four percent interest
Sorry -- there are also provisions for small businesses. I'm employed at a non-profit, so that's what I wrote in my summary for work.
With the government paying four percent on these worker retention loans -- far above the bond rate -- the banks will be making a lot of money.
The loan is forgiven if used for payroll and operating expenses.
I guess my question is what happens if you do not use the loan for those purposes, then dissolve the company?
Ken B said...
Yancey
In other words, we don’t have enough tests. If we have to triage tests then we do not have enough tests.
As usual you are just a stupid asshole and trying to score argument points.
The law firm Steptoe and Johnson has issued some fairly good summaries of the relief bills --
The Families First Coronavirus Response Act
The CARES Act
Browndog, the loans are intended for payroll protection. So if the company uses them for other purposes -- if the loan is given at all -- then it needs to be paid back.
The President was very clear about this relief money not simply going into the pockets of the executives while their employees get the shaft.
GET TOUGH NOW, MAGGOTS!
With Dr. Ezekiel's Patented Workout Videos.
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In my view, this valiant attempt by the administration will not be enough to keep business open. There will be a cascading effect, and it starts next week.
Then you're going to see that little catch-22 of not having enough paying customers to stay afloat because they've been laid off.
No one is talking about one of the most important things we have to know about what to expect, and that's what level of risk we can live with in order to not only 'open the economy' (whatever that specifically means) but open schools. A commenter on a FB thread regarding our school district said yesterday 'I'm not risking my kids' lives to send them to school.' Aside from the mind-numbing ignorance of who is in fact at risk from the virus, this concerns me because it demonstrates how the scare-porn addicted masses are going to present a problem. There is always going to be a non-zero chance that kids are going to get it at school* and either get sick themselves or bring it home to Grandma. There is always going to be a non-zero chance that anyone is going to get it anywhere and because of the way this crisis has been handled, a certain dopey segment of the population has been convinced that the government can somehow make it safe to come out again. No, it can't, but what is safe enough? No one is saying.
There is a non-zero chance that the same kids are going to be hit by a car walking to school, or fondled by a teacher, or get the flu from a classmate, or get the shit beaten out of them during quarantine by a frazzled parent, but here we are.
Parents should be allowed to assess the risk that their children could become infected with the coronavirus and bring it home..
I did not go to the article, this is just from the post, but it caught my eye.
From leftist that demand the control the entirety of our lives, especially the children's lives. Parents authority is minimal. Lots of things in education are intentionally hidden from parents. Have a child that wants to change genders? The school is going hide that fact from the parents, because parents can't be trusted to guide their own children. Now its OK for parents doing risk assessment?
I don't have answers to this. We all understand a need for balance between rate of infection, Medical facilities/patient management, and getting the economy back on track. No matter what decisions are made, or by who, or what the end results are, President Trump is stupid, and if 70% of the people agree with President Trump, that will only be an indicator of how deplorable and deluded they are.
On another subject, I feel a case of whiplash developing. The leftist sporadic discovery of federalism is as discombobulating as the almost empty streets and byways.
Drago said: It is estimated that 78 to 80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck. How long can they be forced to go without income?
I suspect that in many parts of the country with relatively low population density (compared to urban areas) people will be going back to work fairly soon. Walmart, Amazon and a few other employers here in southern Arizona are desperate for workers right now. With the proper safeguards, many employers can continue to operate as we speak.
Jeff said...
Seriously, have you not seen all the videos from New York City from just the last 2 days?
I saw a picture yesterday of a line of people waiting outside the ER of Elmhurst Hospital in NYC to get tested. They were pretty densely packed. Anyone who didn't have the virus when they got in the line probably had it by the time they got in.
This is good work by our media.
This panic is getting people killed.
People are not thinking.
If you think this is just a big city problem you might want to check the Johns Hopkins tracker linked below. Click on the map and zoom in, for example, on Mississippi. Look at the spread. Those are rural, low-population counties.
Rural spread.
Parents should be allowed to assess the risk that their children could become infected with the coronavirus and bring it home..
The counter to that would be that that's not the issue.
The bigger issue is whether parents should be allowed to assess the risk that their children is already infected with the coronavirus and could spread it to others.
Most of this lock down is not about you not getting it. It is about you not giving it to others.
Some thoughts on test and trace https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/march-28-update-us-covid-19-tests-per.html
Rabel, confirmed cases is meaningless without some knowledge of whether the relevant hospitals can handle the severe cases.
Any percentage of a large number is a lot, I get that, but what matters is whether hospitals are being overwhelmed, or not. Why is that being so underreported?
Getting tested without symptoms is questionable.
Even if you test negative -- which you likely will -- a test is only a snapshot in time.
You might not have it the day you are tested, but the next day you could get it, as least if you insist on crowding the NYC parks and sidewalks.
"Rabel, confirmed cases is meaningless without some knowledge of whether the relevant hospitals can handle the severe cases."
An important consideration but I don't see how it relates to my comment.
Mark said...
Relief under the Federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act...
I know Mark was just posting bullet points and not a comment on Mark.
I just want to point out that this is stupid.
The people that wrote these bills have no idea how small businesses work.
Tax Credits don't pay the bills if you don't have any revenues to pay taxes on. There are no reserves of cash just lying around.
The freekout is doing lasting damage. You are taking the entrepreneur class and just trashing them.
They are the people that make this country wealthy.
Rabel, you're right in pointing out that it's not just a big city problem. I was just responding to the 'look, cases!' aspect.
" Blogger Mark said...
The new relief act is aimed at encouraging employers to maintain their workforce rather than dumping them onto unemployment."
And it will woefully fail. At least with respect to a business with 10-20 employees.
1. They don't trust the government.
2. They expect ( and it will probably be true ) that the time it takes to get won't help.
3. The government will change their mind afterwards.
4. THERE ARE NO CUSTOMERS. So you are going to keep people employed to sit on their ass? If you were an IT based company you can have them fixing/creating/mechanizing stuff. But there are no restaurants, no dentists, no hotels, no boutiques, no malls, no sports gear, no gyms, nothing.
@Rabel,
Those are rural, low-population counties.
Those are rural, low-population black counties. I notice that cities like Atlanta & New Orleans are heavily black, too. That was definitely not the case in the West Coast breakouts. It's difficult to get neighborhood by neighborhood, borough by borough breakdown of NYC, but I wonder what's the ethnic breakdown of the cases.
Needless to say, the epidemiologists are tracking ethnic/racial data carefully, because that dictates where they have to focus their medical & educational efforts. They're just not releasing that data for whatever reasons.
My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the virus started out of the Chinese community, and then spread, but that it's wreaking havoc in specific racial/ethic communities for various reasons of social behavior.
But that's just a guess for now.
Mark said...
Getting tested without symptoms is questionable.
Getting tested with symptoms is questionable.
The virus is widespread.
Just assume you have it and act appropriately.
The tests need to be reserved for first responders and health workers. They should be tested as often as possible.
We are doing this wrong. Telling people they are going to die if they get COVID-19 is a mistake.
Freeking out is a mistake.
“How many on this blog were concerned with the coronavirus in early January (or even February)? “
I have a very paranoid friend who was on us in January to stock up. He’s a serious prepper. We build guns together. And some of them may have been lost somewhere, stored in moisture tight plastic containers (along with ammunition). Not sure. None of my business. Last 4th of July, he took my partner downstairs to see his stockpile of emergency supplies. She (having been raised by a prepper) told him that if the SHTF, we would just move in with him. His mountain of food seems to grow every time I visit (gas and diesel are stored elsewhere). All well sealed, with moisture removed, etc. The funny thing though is that he wasn’t stocked up with a six month supply of TP. I will harass him this summer whenever we get together to do just that.
So, yes, we were well aware of the pending pandemic. Being dilatory by nature, I didn’t start stocking up until early February. And I haven’t done nearly what he has done, but, then again, we don’t have a 5,000 sq ft house, with half the basement for storage, as well as another 3,000 sq ft in garages. I am planning on addressing the garage issue this summer. Hopefully - the plan is 2400 sq ft downstairs, and half that upstairs, mostly for storage.
Opinions are like a holes Rahm shows us his. At least the elites are shifting away from 12 to 18 months in hell, like Prof Ferguson requires.
David Begley at 11:22 AM
I use to hear UI claims at the Nebraska Department of Labor as an ALJ. Appeal!
I will continue to dispute the unemployment claims.
Maybe the resolution will be that the benefits are allowed but the employers are relieved of all charges.
I will argue that the aide is not available, able and willing to work. The aide is rejecting our job offers.
The aide will argue that she is rejecting job offers because the risks to her own safety are unreasonable.
The unemployment examiner will decide that the aide can collect unemployment benefits, but the employer never will be charged for the benefits.
That outcome would be rough justice.
However, if more and more aides follow that path, then our company will be less and less able to provide aides for our available clients, and so we gradually will lose our clients.
Rather than look at NYC videos, why not look at the actual numbers?
New York State Population: 19 Million
New York State Covid-19 deaths: 965
That's 50 deaths per Million people.
NY City Population: 8 Million
No of Covid-19 Deaths: 517
That's 65 deaths per Million people
Is that a lot or a little or something else?
Well, to compare, for last year Flu in the US, we had 34,000 deaths in a population of 330 Million.
That's 103 deaths per Million people. Across the entire country. Probably, NYC was double that -- all those subway riders and Times Square crowds, but I don't know. Maybe, I will find it.
So, there you have it. The actual numbers, no videos.
Favor -- before the usual suspects whine or criticize this, first tell me if you think these numbers are wrong. If they are not wrong, great! We can be friends! If they are wrong, then I am an idiot. Please give me the right numbers.
But if these numbers are right, then tell me why these numbers are not relevant.
We need to return to work by Easter! Have a good Sunday.
Rabel,
Every single county in Mississippi with greater than 25 confirmed cases is either in the Memphis metropolitan area, in the Jackson metropolitan area, or in the Biloxi/Gulfport/New Orleans area. The rest of Mississippi looks like the rural areas pretty much everywhere else.
And if I drop the threshold to 15 cases, those counties, too, are in those areas, and look to account for 85% of the confirmed cases. You see the same pattern in Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, etc. I personally think it partially reflected by the fact that people in rural areas just don't submit for the test as often, but density does matter more probably.
“This 8-10 week lockdown plan just won't work. All of this plan defies basic human nature. The rebellion against these plans is already starting in the states that have implemented it, and it only took a week for it start happening, and it will only get worse. Lockdown Breaking is a social virus that spreads rapidly. You basically get, maybe, a week or two of 80% compliance, but after that it quickly falls under 50%, and then even more rapidly falls to 20% of the most personally vulnerable. To make that sort of plan work would require the police to shoot people in the streets because you won't be able to lock them all up.”
Exactly right! The population-wide lockdown was neither tenable nor, I think, particularly serious. Being in uncharted territory, policy makers started grasping at any plausible straw.
A scant two weeks ago this wasn’t really even a thing in my part of the world. Now it is but, beyond some closed restaurants there is little visible change. But, clearly, nobody knows what the next two weeks will bring.
What I do know is that the day my employer stopped doing what we do, we started planning the restart. And nobody is thinking as late as June. Or May for that matter.
If it makes anyone feel any better, a relative who is involved with contact tracing in parts of the developing world is convinced that heat and humidity make a big difference. Hopefully we'll have a hot, humid spring. Probably not something we'd usually wish for!
(Wait, does that mean global warming might help us? Ha!)
They started wide use in NYC of the T-Pills (cloroquine et al) last Tuesday, didn't they?
I have seen nothing at all about results.
I am assuming that early results are good, or at least hopeful.
if they weren't it would be all over the news.
John Henry
Mark at 11:34 AM
CARES Bill Provisions
Thanks a lot for that information.
I will tell my company's owner on Monday.
Early on it was clear to me we abandoned containment because the virus simply cannot be contained. Instead, we opted to slow the rate of spread as to not overwhelm the system. A sensible approach.
The problem is it prolongs the outbreak. We now have hard number instead of inaccurate models so we no longer have to totally rely on "Nobody knows!" that drove social and economic policies.
Test and trace is a joke at this point in places like New York and New Jersey. People who are familiar with exponential number growth will understand why. At this point, the vast majority of contacts and traces are being done by the infected themselves, not healthcare authorities- the numbers are just too high. Just think about how many people you have had contact with and places you have gone to in just the last week? Conservatively, the contacts for a single confirmed case are 10 people you have to contact, and if R0 is 2, then you have to contact 20 more, then 40 more etc. The manpower required is simply not possible. I think it quite likely that contact and trace isn't really being done any longer in most of the states with more than 1000 cases.
Although I do like many parts of the Ezekiel Emmanuel article, notice the trickery:
He cites no actual numbers. He cites only an imaginary future number, 1 Million deaths,based on .....an imaginary hypothetical.
That's called skilled propaganda.
We have 75 cases as of yesterday in the 26 sq. miles of Arlington County.
They won't report which neighborhoods are most affected. Whether they are concentrated in Bezosville -- aka Crystal City, aka National Landing, where our new Overlord Amazon is headquartered and where the first cases were detected -- or in the hyper-dense Rosslyn to Ballston corridor, or in one-percent land north of Lee Highway, or where the progressive County Board has implemented policies to "concentrate" all the minorities and lower-income people in South Arlington.
I would really like to know that, though.
Pelosi:
"When did this president know about this and what did he know?" Pelosi asked. "What did he know and when did he know it? That's for an after-action review but as the president fiddles, people are dying and we just have to take every precaution."
Are we ready for Impeachment II? Who did the fiddling back in January and early February by dedicating both the House and Senate to a pointless impeachment process?
"We have to have testing, testing, testing. That's what we said from the start."
So Nancy, why didn't Congress stockpile COVID-19 test kits over the past decade to test for a virus that didn't yet exist?
Get out of the way, Nancy.
I will tell my company's owner on Monday
Give them the Steptoe and Johnson info.
All of these provisions are gobbledy-gook to me.
Mark at 11:47 AM
Sorry -- there are also provisions for small businesses. I'm employed at a non-profit, so that's what I wrote in my summary for work.
Now I am confused.
Were the loan-forgiveness provisions you listed only for non-profits?
Small businesses too Mike.
The "test and contain" crowd is two months late.
That ship has sailed.
The important data point is hospitalization.
I've been saying that since the beginning. It's a hard data point, yet is not reported.
Actually covidtracking.com is reporting it. Not sure how complete the numbers are because they don't have it for all states. But they have it for NY. Roughly 52,000 cases, 10,000 hospitalized. That's like 10x the rate in the rest of the country (or maybe a bit less given the missing numbers). Hard to fathom.
Hopefully we'll have a hot, humid spring. Probably not something we'd usually wish for!
High around 80F in Houston all week with rain much of the next week. Good luck to the rest of you.
As it is, our non-profit is too big to qualify for a lot of these things.
I'm told the limitations were put in, in part, to keep Planned Parenthood from qualifying.
If true, it reminds me of that line, "You arrogant ass. You've killed us!" as the torpedo we shot comes straight at us.
FYI, today's reading is from the Prophet Ezekial.
If testing is continued at the rate that has been reported for the last several days, by the end of this week we may have tested about .4% of the national population. It sure as heck won't be random, but it may give us a little better insight.
What we know now is that large, densely populated cities are in bad shape!
Freeman Hunt said...
If it makes anyone feel any better, a relative who is involved with contact tracing in parts of the developing world is convinced that heat and humidity make a big difference. Hopefully we'll have a hot, humid spring. Probably not something we'd usually wish for!
(Wait, does that mean global warming might help us? Ha!)
They are correct.
All you have to do is look at outbreak patterns by location, time, and temperature maps.
It is obvious to anyone that COVID-19 spreads in a narrow temperature humidity band.
"The rest of Mississippi looks like the rural areas pretty much everywhere else."
The point is that the virus is spreading into areas with few residents and little exposure to large concentrations of people. This is reasonably strong evidence that this particular virus is highly contagious and that it is likely that a large percentage of the US population will eventually be infected and some unknown percentage of those will die. Many others will suffer permanent lung damage.
Barring relief from warming weather, I see nothing to stop the continuing spread of the disease into the majority of the population short of a total (and unacceptable) lockdown.
In short, it's going to be bad. It's just a question of how bad.
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