Althouse: Full employment in Wisconsin.

January 8, 2018

Full employment in Wisconsin.

A stunning graphic:

Source.

178 comments:

TreeJoe said...: Elections have consequences?; 1/8/18, 10:57 AM
Francisco D said...: That's impressive!

Did you guys elect a new governor or something?; 1/8/18, 10:57 AM
Achilles said...: It is amazing what happens when businesses can make a profit and don't have to fear the federal government. It is even more important than the tax rates in many ways.

Trump's deregulation efforts are going to lift the chains off our economy and it is primarily going to manifest in higher wages and more jobs.

The taxes are a side benefit. Capital makes many things possible.; 1/8/18, 11:02 AM
Bay Area Guy said...: Re-elect Governor Walker for life!

(just kidding)

One general idea proposed and implemented by Gov Walker, was that if you shrink the Government sector, more money is infused into the private sector, creating new businesses, new jobs, higher wages -- just a thought here.; 1/8/18, 11:03 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Garage mahal and Inga hardest hit.; 1/8/18, 11:03 AM
MayBee said...: I wonder if it will ever occur to people that Republicans might have some good ideas after all.; 1/8/18, 11:06 AM
Original Mike said...: Cue that song ...; 1/8/18, 11:06 AM
Sprezzatura said...: Why go back to 2010.

In 2016 DJT said that the effective unemployment rate in WI was 20%.

WI is trying to hide that it was DJT in DC who moved the WI rate from 20% to less than 4%.

WI = Fake News.; 1/8/18, 11:06 AM
Ann Althouse said...: "Cue that song ..."

Meade is outside doing whatever it is he can always find to do out there or he would be ready to dance to that song one more time...; 1/8/18, 11:10 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: “It is amazing what happens when businesses can make a profit and don't have to fear the federal government. It is even more important than the tax rates in many ways.”

President Obama was in Office from January of 2009 until January of 2017.; 1/8/18, 11:11 AM
Ann Althouse said...: When I look at those maps, I see what I know translates into immense human suffering and well-being. I really find it almost impossible to hold in my mind the difference, if you think of all the people affected and what it must mean to those communities.; 1/8/18, 11:11 AM
YoungHegelian said...: Wow! I had no idea that the demand for cheese curds, head cheese, & Packers memorabilia was so strong!; 1/8/18, 11:11 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: It's positively balmy outside today!; 1/8/18, 11:11 AM
Jimmy said...: Time for Democrats to pivot from 'Trump is insane', to Obama is really responsible for all the growth we are seeing. They are shameless, and I can't wait for the Wapo and NYT stories backing up O's 'success' with the economy.; 1/8/18, 11:12 AM
Ann Althouse said...: You may not realize, but you could probably guess if you had to, that where I live was the brightest spot on the map in 2010, when Scott Walker became governor. And it was in that spot — white on the 2010 map — where tens of thousands of people protested for weeks and took over the capitol and raised the alarm that Wisconsin had just elected a Hitler.

What would those people say now, looking at that map? Walker claimed to have seen what the problem was and how it could be fixed. He put his plan into place over the most vehement protests I've ever seen and this is the result. Will any of those protesters admit they were wrong and thank him?; 1/8/18, 11:16 AM
lgv said...: I'm not sure why Trump would get a mention. First, one needs to look at a trend, say each year. I doubt much has happened in the last year, and even if it did, it would not be attributable to Trump. Walker, of course, can take some credit. Second, without watching the video, it would appear to be the "unemployment rate", which means those who filed and were actively receiving unemployment benefits. This is not a great indicator of how close a state is to full employment. It is the same reason, the reduction in this rate across the country during the Obama administration was not an indicator of economic recovery. Once a person is done receiving the benefit and still unemployed or underemployed, they are no longer part of the statistic.

What is more important is workforce participation. Regardless, something is going on in Wisconsin that is very good. It's just about time for politicians to act in order to make it even better and thereby destroy that which made it a success.; 1/8/18, 11:17 AM
buwaya said...: I don't want to spoil this but ...
Do not take this at face value.
The US as a whole would show a similar improvement, and for the same reasons. You could generate a similar graphic for most States, even California. On its own this is not an argument for the efficacy of State government.
The unemployment rate depends on some definition of the labor force - i.e., the population or proportion of the population available to be employed.
This, labor force participation, fell, from 2008-2011, and is still a long way from catching up to 2007-2008 levels, much less 1999-2000 levels.
The unemployment rate looks relatively good only because employment is being compared against a lower labor force basis.
The unemployment rate (all of them, all the "U" numbers) is no good for inter-period comparisons when the labor force participation changes, as it has done.
Employment has improved, as has labor force participation, from the lows of 2010, but it still has a long way to go to "full employment".; 1/8/18, 11:20 AM
buwaya said...: I will try pull total population employment rates for all states later today.; 1/8/18, 11:22 AM
chickelit said...: They are shameless, and I can't wait for the Wapo and NYT stories backing up O's 'success' with the economy.

They are ready to do that. And last night, they got their new "O" to provide continuity. It will be rebranded as "The Chicago Way."; 1/8/18, 11:23 AM
Sprezzatura said...: "What would those people say now, looking at that map?"

They'd probably think that it was libruls in DC who resulted in the nearly complete meltdown of the world economy, and w/o conservative values as implemented by Walker's fighting and disenfranchising libs in WI WI (and the rest of the country/world) would never have recovered.

Logic.; 1/8/18, 11:24 AM
buwaya said...: The "Obama recovery" is notable for its weakness, its persistent dragging in the trough at the bottom, its poor job creation (to this day), and for its long-term negative effect on employment and the "discouragement" of the US labor force. There has been nothing like it since the Great Depression.; 1/8/18, 11:27 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: “The US as a whole would show a similar improvement, and for the same reasons.”

Yes and don’t forget that Obama was President during the years of growing improvement. It was the Bush policies that almost crashed our economy.; 1/8/18, 11:27 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: The Doyle years are like a bad dream now. What a mediocrity. We still have Barrett and the other idiots tearing up the streets in Milwaukee to put in a streetcar. What is it with Dems and their lust to waste money on public transportation projects? Do they honestly think people who are adverse to standing at bus stops in freezing weather will happily do so because yay! streetcar!

Ah, well, I'm glad I'm out of that benighted county. And I wish to thank Inga and all those crybaby Democrat and loony Madison demonstrators for doing their part to turn Wisconsin Red!; 1/8/18, 11:29 AM
Sprezzatura said...: Buw,

I don't know if or how it matters, but it is interesting that WI was one of the real dogs re population growth v the other fifty states re this time span.

IOW, is it easier or harder to have more employment (as a percentage rate) when your state isn't growing like most others?

I dunno.; 1/8/18, 11:32 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Will any of those protesters admit they were wrong and thank him?

1/8/18, 11:16 AM

No, the dolts will credit their Holy Lord Obama, like Inga is doing.

The Lightbringer not only made the oceans rise, but fixed unemployment in Wisconsin!; 1/8/18, 11:32 AM
buwaya said...: It was the "libruls in New York" that melted the world economy. What do you think those people are?
They are the people, for instance, that conspired with Eliot Spitzer to oust Maurice Greenberg from AIG, and hand it over to a gang of pirate derivatives speculators.
AIG was just one of these cases, in a wave of them.; 1/8/18, 11:33 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: Unemployment rate in California 4.9

Minnesota 3.3; 1/8/18, 11:33 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: Michigan 4.5

Massachusetts 4.5; 1/8/18, 11:35 AM
buwaya said...: PB&J,
It depends on who is moving out.
NY looks better than it should because so many workers there retire elsewhere.; 1/8/18, 11:35 AM
Vance said...: One wonders why Obama's policies, as inspired and wonderful and the greatest the world has ever seen (ask Inga), took until a year after he left office to finally make an impact. Mysterious set of policies that have zero impact in the 8 years Obama was there and only started working after he left. Amazing, isn't it?

--Vance; 1/8/18, 11:36 AM
buwaya said...: State unemployment rates are not comparable. No more than international unemployment rates. I have shown this before.; 1/8/18, 11:36 AM
rehajm said...: -Was Walker allowed to blame anyone else for the sluggish recovery in WI?

-I wonder what Obama policy gets credit for improving job growth? The tax increases, the health care cost increases, the regulation, the corporate inversion penalties, Dodd-Frank, talk of card check ir capping salaries of rich people? He was hamstrung by the Congress in his second term and he avoided scarry talk in the 2016 election year so I’d give him credit for that...; 1/8/18, 11:39 AM
Sprezzatura said...: Buw,

Mnuchin types?; 1/8/18, 11:39 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: Unemployment rate in Virginia 3.6; 1/8/18, 11:39 AM
buwaya said...: It did not take until now to have an impact, its just that you are looking at this now.

The US unemployment numbers have been improving for years, partly as a genuine, if weak recovery, and partly because the labor force collapsed and has been only weakly recovering.
WI would have looked nearly as "green" this time last year.; 1/8/18, 11:40 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Mysterious set of policies that have zero impact in the 8 years Obama was there and only started working after he left. Amazing, isn't it?

--Vance

Why, it's magic!

And Inga says we are blindly devoted to Trump.

Pure projection.; 1/8/18, 11:40 AM
Achilles said...: Inga said...

President Obama was in Office from January of 2009 until January of 2017.

Yes. We feared the federal government. There were constantly new bullshit rules. 40% of our overhead was directed towards compliance with government dictats.

It was clear that Obama hated entrepreneurs and did everything he could to drive us out of business to help his big money donors.; 1/8/18, 11:41 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: Wow!; 1/8/18, 11:42 AM
buwaya said...: "Mnuchin types"

Yes, the lot of them.
Democrats nearly all, and you know this PB&J, don't be an ass.; 1/8/18, 11:42 AM
mockturtle said...: The real issue of the day: Will it be the Dawgs or the Tide?; 1/8/18, 11:43 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: Walker for President! (Of course, that's what I said last time. Maybe next time...); 1/8/18, 11:44 AM
Jimmy said...: Obama's last year. GDP was 1.9%. During 8 years, never over 2.6%. If the economy as a whole is struggling, then wages stagnate. Unless you worked for the government that is. The turn around is even faster than during the Reagan recovery. Remember when Obama said Jobs aren't coming back, get used to this, its the new normal? Carter said the same thing.; 1/8/18, 11:45 AM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: “One wonders why Obama's policies, as inspired and wonderful and the greatest the world has ever seen (ask Inga), took until a year after he left office to finally make an impact. Mysterious set of policies that have zero impact in the 8 years Obama was there and only started working after he left. Amazing, isn't it?”

Vance is a liar.

All one has to do is look at the unemployment rates over the years from 2009 until 2017 to see the gradual fall. The unemployment rate in Minnesota in 2009 was 7.8 it gradually fell until it was 4.8 in January of 2017. One can see this in every state across the country.; 1/8/18, 11:46 AM
Vance said...: Let's be blunt: Obama was a fascist. An out and out Fascist, in the best Mussolini tradition. He was married to big business (Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Goldman Sachs). He despised small business and heaped massive regulations on them. He despised individual responsibility for the masses; he was more focused on race than any president since Lyndon Johnson; and the color of your skin demonstrated your innate good or bad--black good, white bad. Unless you were conservative, naturally.

Inga is pining for fascism, plain and simple. Big government married with big business to rule all of us, without any recourse. Inga and others here are fascists by the plain meaning of the words.

--Vance; 1/8/18, 11:46 AM
Achilles said...: buwaya said...
It did not take until now to have an impact, its just that you are looking at this now.

The US unemployment numbers have been improving for years, partly as a genuine, if weak recovery, and partly because the labor force collapsed and has been only weakly recovering.
WI would have looked nearly as "green" this time last year.

But you know that the unemployment rate is a poor measure for economic health. The unemployment rate fell because people were timing out of the system, not new employment.

The only metric that really matters is growth and Obama put in policies that were designed to reduce growth.

We are now seeing sustained growth and this is easily tied to the policies Trump has put in place particularly the deregulation. The tax rate reductions and increase of available capital will just sustain it.; 1/8/18, 11:47 AM
Chuck said...: Althouse, are you serious?

I mean, the video that you linked is fine. It shows the progression through each year, 2010-2017.

In 2016, before Donald Trump raised a finger with regard to the U.S. economy, the map was almost all green.

2017 employment is (we can all be glad) a lagging indicator of what was going on in the six preceding years.

I'm honestly not quite sure if, by doing a simple side-by-side of 2010 and 2017, you are trolling Trump fans, or Trump critics, or both.

An aside; I did not know that there were two "newsworthy" John Koskinens. Are they related somehow? Sorry if that's a dumb question; I just never knew since I'm not a native Badger.; 1/8/18, 11:49 AM
Vance said...: Inga seems to think that Obama gets credit for the anemic recovery that staggered along under Barack "I hate small business" Obama, despite Obama's best efforts to strangle the economy with regulations, taxes, and hostile behavior.

Upthread someone asked her what policy of Obama was responsible for the weak recovery. She's not answered.

I can, though: massive inflation and dumping trillions of cash into the economy that mostly got sucked up by Democrat cronyists, so it didn't have much impact. Trillions of dollars embezzled and massive debt laid on our children--Obama's economic legacy.

Not even Inga thinks that if Trump following the Obama economic plan that the economy would even be staggering along at Obama's pathetic and impotent rate.

I suppose the massive spike in misery and woe under Obama's watch is something Inga can point to proudly though. And we weren't reduced to eating zoo animals to survive, unlike other places with leftist economics.

--Vance; 1/8/18, 11:51 AM
lgv said...: "Will any of those protesters admit they were wrong and thank him?"

Is that what they call a rhetorical question?

Protesters today: 1) sure, it looks good, but disaster is just around the corner. 2) sure, it looks good, but many people died a horrible death to achieve it. 3) Walker had nothing to do with it. All of the credit goes to the Obama administration.; 1/8/18, 11:53 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: "All one has to do is look at the unemployment rates over the years from 2009 until 2017 to see the gradual fall. The unemployment rate in Minnesota in 2009 was 7.8 it gradually fell until it was 4.8 in January of 2017. One can see this in every state across the country."

Inga is not taking into account the effect of diminishing returns.
Going from 10% to 7% unemployment is easier than going from 7% to 4% unemployment.; 1/8/18, 11:53 AM
Achilles said...: Inga said...

Vance is a liar.

You think so because you are so stupid.

All one has to do is look at the unemployment rates over the years from 2009 until 2017 to see the gradual fall. The unemployment rate in Minnesota in 2009 was 7.8 it gradually fell until it was 4.8 in January of 2017. One can see this in every state across the country.

The Obama years were the slowest recovery on record since the great depression. It took 8 years of gradual falling because people were timing out of the system.

Obama is the first president in history to not have a single year of 3% growth. He has the worst economic record of any president in the history of this country. This would be expected of someone who hated entrepreneurs as much as he did.; 1/8/18, 11:55 AM
Jimmy said...: Economists deal in numbers, not people. Things have changed to a degree not seen since Reagan. Carter and Obama both essentially gave up on any recovery. It was everybody's fault but NOT governments fault. Reagan and Trump reminded us that government isn't a solution to unemployment, underemployment. The removal of regulations, arbitrary rules, has had a dramatic effect on people.
And yes, under Obama, there was an improvement. Which shows that Americans, even saddled with onerous rules and regulations, still try to succeed. Trump reminded us that we can do better. With out government to babysit us.; 1/8/18, 11:55 AM
Bay Area Guy said...: The Leftwing 2-step is this:

If there is a GOP Governor,

1. Deny good news
2. If good news, deny credit to GOP.

If there is a GOP President,

1. Deny good news
2. If good news, deny credit to GOP

It simply isn't worth it to engage Leftists. They want power, they will say anything to get power.; 1/8/18, 11:57 AM
Vance said...: We can look on the bright side though. No more recovery summers!

Obama's economy was stagnant and bad. And whose fault was it? Why, George Bush! The evil Bush's policies somehow overrode the LightWorker's brilliant economics... for 8 years we suffered under George Bush! Only on January 20th of 2017 did Bush's bad mojo finally expire... so now all of obamas policies are finally taking effect!

Right Inga? Do we have 8 years of a roaring economy to look forward to, now that "Bush's problems" finally expired the day Obama left office?

--Vance; 1/8/18, 11:59 AM
Achilles said...: 2017 will show the first real wage growth for the bottom 50% in decades.

Democrats will try to slow it down. They will start railing and flagellating about "inflation" at the fed. They can't abide by their peons getting wealthier. Watch.; 1/8/18, 11:59 AM
Chuck said...: I'm honestly not quite sure if, by doing a simple side-by-side of 2010 and 2017, you are trolling Trump fans, or Trump critics, or both.

I should check myself on this before Althouse does; is it supposed to be a credit to Scott Walker and the Wisconsin legislature?

2010 coincides with Walker, Rick Snyder in Michigan and John Kasich in Ohio. Three similar states, each with very similar economic and employment performances, 2010-2017.; 1/8/18, 12:01 PM
Achilles said...: And that wage growth is occurring because of true increased demand for labor which results in the working class people actually making more money.

This is opposed to minimum wage hikes which reduce demand for labor and reduce the amount of money the working class gets.

Democrats have hated the working class for centuries. Now they loathe the working class because that is Trump's base.; 1/8/18, 12:03 PM
buwaya said...: Inga is right, but Inga is also irrelevant.

The unemployment rate is a very poor metric and does not capture the real picture.
I recall, from 2011-2012 I think, in Congressional testimony, Ben Bernanke rather sheepishly explaining, when asked about the "recovery", that the unemployment rate was no longer of much use.; 1/8/18, 12:04 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Remember when Obama and the CEO of (I think) GE had a good laugh over all those shovel-ready jobs Obama HADN'T created? Ha, ha, fooled the hicks!

And Inga wonders why Trump won.; 1/8/18, 12:04 PM
Achilles said...: Chuck said...

I should check myself on this before Althouse does; is it supposed to be a credit to Scott Walker and the Wisconsin legislature?

I always look forward to Chuck's brilliant defense of Obama/democrat economic policy.; 1/8/18, 12:04 PM
Paul said...: Making America Great Again!!!! Yea!; 1/8/18, 12:05 PM
Birches said...: Chuck, this has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with Walker.; 1/8/18, 12:07 PM
Jaq said...: The point stands that it was a matter of the fiercest urgency to get rid of Walker, to the point of trashing democratic norms, and, well, Inga and the rest of her band of election reversers failed, and it appears that all of the screaming and bullhorn blasting, physical assaults, etc, etc, etc, weren’t justified then. That the “literally Hitler” people were on the other side, at least the closest analogue, the ones whose slogan was “This is what democracy looks like!” in public, but when their emails come to light after egregious misuse of the powers entrusted to them by the people of Wisconsin, they write “I know this is not democracy, but we have to do it!” (I paraphrase)

So forgive us Inga, after having seen your hair on fire routine before, if many don’t take you seriously this time. Given the exposure for all to see of the rank hypocrisy last time.; 1/8/18, 12:07 PM
Achilles said...: exiledonmainstreet said...
Remember when Obama and the CEO of (I think) GE had a good laugh over all those shovel-ready jobs Obama HADN'T created? Ha, ha, fooled the hicks!

Obama was too busy helping GE move to China and crushing companies stuck in the US under his thumb to create any actual jobs for working class people.

GE stock has been plummeting since Obama left office. They are good at getting government favors from corrupt national socialists but fair poorly when their competition has unfair regulations lifted and operate on a level field.; 1/8/18, 12:09 PM
Jaq said...: Chuck gets a little boner when he thinks of the police breaking down doors and rousting opposition politicians’ wives out of bed in the wee hours of the morning. Trump, Walker, doesn’t matter!; 1/8/18, 12:10 PM
Birches said...: The remarkable thing about this graphic is that it is a county by county look. California might have a low unemployment rate but I can almost guarantee it is not on a county by county level. Id love to see a similar graphic of Minnesota and Indiana and Illinois for comparison.; 1/8/18, 12:10 PM
Jaq said...: Remember those companies doing “inversions” to move out of the US to avoid the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world? Somebody finally did something about it, and Apple alone is bringing back 200 billion dollars to the US.; 1/8/18, 12:11 PM
Inga...Allie Oop said...: Minnesota-Democrat Governor, Wisconsin-Republican Governor. Similar improvements in unemployment rates from 2009 until 2017. Actually Minnesota has done better.; 1/8/18, 12:15 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Early in his career as prez, Obama called a meeting of big business leaders. Steve Jobs was there, Obama asked him what he had to do to bring Apple's manufacturing jobs back to the US. Jobs told him flatly "Those jobs aren't coming back."
http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20120123/apples-jobs-to-obama-jobs-arent-coming-back-to-us

Obama appears to have never studied economics. I can't say so for certain because, as he and his council of economic advisers rearranged the US economy on a grand scale, no journalist ever asked him about his knowledge of economics, or dug into his academic record. The only private sector business experience Obama had was working for a crooked law firm in Chicago (close ties to Blago, Daly & Chicago & Illinois public entities).; 1/8/18, 12:16 PM
cubanbob said...: The consensus among economists is that the recession ended in 2009. So we had eight years of stunted growth thanks to Obama and the Democrats. As for the banking crises, funny how the Democrats who planted the economic IEDs conveniently overlook that fact. Indeed Andrew Cuomo who as Clinton's HUD secretary bears a large measure of responsibility for the banking crises and ought to be shot for it is the current governor of New York and again responsible for the financial crises of that State.; 1/8/18, 12:17 PM
rehajm said...: The unemployment rate drops because people find jobs or because people don’t find jobs and their time counted as unemployed expires and they are considered discouraged workers. The labor force participation rate captures how many people are actually working. How’s that metric under Obama.

Summer of Recovery. The New Normal. Secular stagnation. Obama officials are creative- credit for that.; 1/8/18, 12:17 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The unemployment rate (UE) everywhere needs to be looked at in conjunction to the participation rate. Remember, UE is a ratio of two numbers, and almost all of the "improvement" is caused by the change in the denominator, not the numerator.

People ask why, with UE falling so much since 2009 why growth is so sluggish as are wage gains- the above is why- you can't get much in the way either growth or wage gains with the deep changes seen in the participation rates. If the participation rate were it had been predicted to be in 2004, you would have had nearly, now, 20 million more people in the work force and working with today's UE rate. That lack of opportunity can be hidden in the UE, but can't be hidden in statistics like aggregate GDP and wage income.

No one should be taking victory laps over UE- no one.; 1/8/18, 12:17 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: MN & WI have different economies, Inga. I have lived in both states. Wisconsin was dependent on an old-style manufacturing economy to a far greater extent than Minnesota.; 1/8/18, 12:19 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: It is always good to look at data.
Here is the Bureau of labor stat's info for MN & WI, 2007 to present:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST550000000000003
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST270000000000003
In both states, the data show a remarkable uptick in employment that coincides with the month Obama left office.
I suspect that this is related to January, 2017, being the month Trump named his cabinet.; 1/8/18, 12:26 PM
Big Mike said...: And all that was accomplished without high speed rail. Imagine that!; 1/8/18, 12:30 PM
tcrosse said...: Minnesota-Democrat Governor, Wisconsin-Republican Governor. Similar improvements in unemployment rates from 2009 until 2017. Actually Minnesota has done better.

You might want to demonstrate causation, rather than just correlation. Minnesota did quite well under Arne Carlson and Jesse Ventura, too; 1/8/18, 12:30 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Here is a graph that demonstrates what I am writing about. Unfortunately, the real economy measures those missing workers, and it shows up in stunted growth and stunted real income.; 1/8/18, 12:31 PM
Curious George said...: "Ann Althouse said...
You may not realize, but you could probably guess if you had to, that where I live was the brightest spot on the map in 2010, when Scott Walker became governor. And it was in that spot — white on the 2010 map — where tens of thousands of people protested for weeks and took over the capitol and raised the alarm that Wisconsin had just elected a Hitler.

What would those people say now, looking at that map? Walker claimed to have seen what the problem was and how it could be fixed. He put his plan into place over the most vehement protests I've ever seen and this is the result. Will any of those protesters admit they were wrong and thank him?"

Are you kidding me Althouse? The protesters were by and large government workers...state government, UW, County, etc. They weren't protesting unemployment, they were protesting having to pay for a SMALL PART their health insurance and pension. So know, they aren't thankful. They don't give a ratfuck about others in the state.; 1/8/18, 12:32 PM
traditionalguy said...: Quiet! Stable Genius at work.; 1/8/18, 12:33 PM
buwaya said...: This is why the unemployment rate is not useful -

Unemployment - Labor Force

The Obama administration saw official unemployment fall, but this did not translate into much more hiring.

More than anything else, this is why you got Trump.; 1/8/18, 12:44 PM
buwaya said...: Also, probably, why you got Walker.; 1/8/18, 12:44 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Yancey Ward said...
Here is a graph that demonstrates what I am writing about. Unfortunately, the real economy measures those missing workers, and it shows up in stunted growth and stunted real income.
1/8/18, 12:31 PM
Interesting. I haven't looked at the data, but I would guess that skilled labor is in far more demand than unskilled labor. I think that this is called a jobs mismatch, e.g., the jobs available don't match the skills (or location, etc.) of many unemployed workers. It would seem obvious that if the problem is an oversupply of unskilled labor, the government shouldn't import unskilled labor. But some people don't want to acknowledge the obvious. Orwell wrote "To see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle."
The context of the quote is important. You can read the essay "In Front of Your Nose" here: http://orwell.ru/library/articles/nose/english/e_nose; 1/8/18, 12:55 PM
alan markus said...: @ Curious George:

they were protesting having to pay for a SMALL PART their health insurance and pension. So know, they aren't thankful. They don't give a ratfuck about others in the state.

Each spring State & Local Government employees get their Annual Statement of Benefits which projects future retirement benefits - either Formula (based on earnings) or Money Purchase (based on the balance of Employee Required Contributions, Matching Employer, and Interest) - whichever is higher. My wife will miss this year's annual ritual of walking down the rows of work stations to distribute the statements and then on the way back seeing the smiles on their faces when they see how much interest has been credited to their Money Purchase Balance, in addition to the contributions. Benefits rise and fall based on the market.

As of 11/30/17 the YTD rate on the basic (Core) was 14.7% and on the Variable (that is strictly based on market, no adjustments to smooth gains and losses) was 21.4%. Nothing about December indicates that the returns will be less than that. 5% is built into the basic assumptions, so that part does not figure in the returns.

This spring if my wife was still doing that, she would need to wear sunglasses because the smiles will be that bright.

Wisconsin Retirement System
Trust Funds Investment Performance; 1/8/18, 1:06 PM
buwaya said...: BLS employment, labor force, non-institutionalized population, can all be found here

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt

Going back, monthly, to 1976, so break out your Excel and go nuts.

November 2008 -
WI - 66.2%
IA - 69.0%
OH - 61.3%
CA - 59.7%
CA - 60.1%
NY - 59.1%

November 2010 -
WI - 63.5%
IA - 66.8%
OH - 58.4%
CA - 56.0%
NY - 56.7%

November 2017 -
WI - 66.7%
IA - 66.4%
OH - 59.8%
CA - 59.7%
NY - 58.3%

US - (monthly)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
November -
2008 - 61.4
2010 - 58.1
2017 - 60.1

This is a very different, and much more accurate picture of the employment situation as it does not involve judgement calls about who is or is not in the labor force.

I think you will find that few states have recovered to their condition as of 2008, Wisconsin being a notable exception, as it has at this point exceeded 2008. If you want to credit public policy for this, then you have some justification for giving Mr. Walker credit, WI has outperformed the US in its recovery.; 1/8/18, 1:09 PM
John henry said...: I agree that this looks like great news for Wisconsin though not for Wisconsin employers. They have been struggling to find employees for years now and just having a devil of a time hiring. This exacerbates the problem.

Skilled workers especially but even unskilled workers who can pass a drug test, read and write and can be depended on to show up every day, on time are pretty thin on the ground.

On the other hand, it does help the US by forcing employers to be more efficient. If you can't hire more people, you can work to make your people more efficient. Even small improvements have huge results. Each 2 percentage points efficiency improvement, whether from 40 to 42% of 90-92% adds an additional 40 hours of production time annually.

For a bottling line running 1500 bottles per minute, that means 3.6mm more bottles per year with no additional people, no additional machinery and no additional building space.

Or, looking at it another way, reducing the amount of downtime on the line by 10 minutes per day gives you 40 hours per year additional.

Both are peanuts in the scheme of things. Plants running multiple shifts will see even more output gains.

Henry Ford, who invented the famous Toyota Production System 100 years ago knew that efficiency was the key. Ford in particular and the US in general had it easy for way too long and we lost our efficiency edge. We need to get it back.

We get it back by teaching employees on the line to be lazy. Teach them to look for things that they are doing that do not need doing. "All progress is made by a a lazy person looking for an easier way."-Heinlein.

Automation helps but the key is always going to be people, getting them focused on what adds value and eliminating what doesn't

There are going to be some serious growing pains as the employment problems ratchet up but with that pain will cause growth and making manufacturing great again.

John Henry; 1/8/18, 1:19 PM
buwaya said...: John Henry,

Your problems are regional. Overall the US employment situation is far from full recovery. Consider that the peak, with female labor force participation fully factored in, in 1999-2000, was over 64%. On this metric, of the whole population, 4% means a lot.

There is still a huge amount of slack, nationwide. Not to say that a heck of a lot of people have gotten out of the habit of work and become much less employable. To a large degree this seems like a consequence of the "great disemployment".; 1/8/18, 1:28 PM
FIDO said...: I assume, Ms. Althouse, if you care about your fellow citizens, that next election you will vote Republican and vote Trump the election afterwards.; 1/8/18, 1:41 PM
Birkel said...: NOTE:

You guys can talk about statistics all you want. They matter in some ways, and not so much in others.

But the set of voters who went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016 were not moved by statistics. They were moved by what they witnessed on the ground where they lived. They knew that the statistics were largely meaningless (buwaya's point about work force participation) or worse, deliberately used to hide the truth of the experiences they felt.

Inga can pretend those voters don't matter by citing state-level statistics. But anybody who knows the deplorable people knows that those people think of themselves as average and deserving of respect. And with that respect must come policies that consider them as members of the body politic, not abstractions in "flyover" or "Rust Belt" states.

Those ordinary people trust their lying eyes. And they know when they hear condescension.; 1/8/18, 1:45 PM
John henry said...: Nope, Buwaya. I talk to employers, mostly in manufacturing, and all tell me the same thing. They have trouble hiring both skilled and unskilled workers. Skilled workers are mostly working and have been all along. Unskilled workers should be easy to find but are not.

I was told by a machine tool builder in WI that 80% of people who apply for jobs fail the drug test. She didn't tell me which drug, if she even knew. I suspect it was mainly MJ.

Others, unskilled, can't read and write or operate a computer at any functions level

Many others are just not willing to make the commitment to showing up 5 days a week and, you know, working in exchange for a paycheck.

Lots of others just see no need to have a job at all.

It's not regional, it is nationwide, even in areas of high unemployment. Even during the depths of the recession over the past 15 years.

I think what you really mean is "There appears. to be a huge amount of slack nationwide.

Unless you can find me some articles about how easy some employers are having it finding suitable, or even marginally suitable, employees.

This is from the other day:

Six-figure construction jobs are going unfilled

By Brittany De Lea Published January 05, 2018 Business Leaders FOXBusiness

The construction sector is ready to boom in 2018, but there’s just one problem: There aren’t enough qualified workers.

A new report released by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), found that 75% of contractors want to increase their headcount in 2018, thanks to the newly-approved tax reform bill, the government’s push to rollback red tape, strong economic growth and a continuation of favorable sector trends.

However, 50% of companies reported having a difficult time filling both craft and salaried worker positions. Over the coming year, 53% of companies told the AGC that they expect to continue struggling to find qualified applicants. These challenges come despite the fact that 60% of firms reported increasing base pay to retain or recruit professionals and 36% provided incentives and bonuses toward the same end.

“The general population doesn’t know how rewarding and profitable [construction jobs can be],” Stephen Mulva, director of the Construction Industry Institute (CII), told FOX Business. “Six-figure salaries are not uncommon.”

[emphasis added-JRH]

But people keep sending their kids to college to get those often useless degrees and saddle them with a lifetime of student load debt. They're too hoity-toity for six-figure salaries.

John Henry; 1/8/18, 1:53 PM
buwaya said...: Birkel,

Statistics, correctly done, are meant to reflect reality.
This is like instrumentation. They are instruments, like a speedometer.
You can have useful or useless instruments.
A good instrument should indicate truth, or close enough for its purpose.

I recall again Ben Bernanke's testimony. He understood the instruments very well, and in his own way, I suppose in order to preserve his self-respect, he was trying to say that the instrument the administration was using was not to be relied on.; 1/8/18, 1:53 PM
John henry said...: Sorry, I meant to say I talk to employers all over the US, mostly in manufacturing.; 1/8/18, 1:55 PM
buwaya said...: John Henry,

I think if you had a look at Northern California/Central Valley, say, you would find a great number of unemployed or under-employed workers. I know a good school in Chico that can send you a fair number of prospects, that would indeed like a job near their homes.

For many other reasons these are not good places to start a manufacturing business however.; 1/8/18, 1:59 PM
buwaya said...: "But people keep sending their kids to college to get those often useless degrees"

On this we agree in full.
It is absurd.; 1/8/18, 2:00 PM
Mr. D said...: I grew up in Wisconsin but have lived in Minnesota for most of my adult life. Things in the Twin Cities are going very well, but things are worse, often far worse, in northern Minnesota. However, most of those northern counties are sparsely populated — the county with the worst unemployment rate, Clearwater County, has less than 9,000 people. Wisconsin’s population is spread out more evenly throughout the state. The economies in the two states aren’t as similar as you might expect.

Here's a map with some recent numbers.; 1/8/18, 2:01 PM
Birkel said...: buwaya:

I have no problem understanding your point. I agree with your point, so far as it goes.

But my point is different, if complimentary to yours.

Ben Bernanke knew precisely why the statistics were no longer useful.

The voters who switched to Trump knew that they were no longer useful.

The voters matter. Ben Bernanke no longer matters once the voters determine his value is exhausted.

That is the problem with experts. They aren't.; 1/8/18, 2:01 PM
FIDO said...: Here is a clearer and more immediate metric of how the markets view Democrat economic policy and Republican economic policy.

The DAY AFTER Hillary lost, the DOW and other markets shot to the ceiling...and broke it again...and again...and again.

The day before Hillary was 'definitely going to win' the market was anemic and low. One of the lowest in the last few years.

Ms. Althouse, it would be useful to put the Dow chart up from November 8 to today to see how the market immediately responded to someone who did not consider working for the private sector 'working for the enemy', as Obama has been quoted.

But this pops the narrative that Inga desperately clings to.; 1/8/18, 2:01 PM
FullMoon said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 1/8/18, 2:01 PM
FIDO said...: Dow Nov 4 17,888

Dow today 25,294.

How DOES Obama do it...and certainly in such a time delayed fashion.; 1/8/18, 2:07 PM
FleetUSA said...: MAGA, Vive Scott Walker; 1/8/18, 2:10 PM
FIDO said...: Just to clarify: it took Obama 8 years to move the market 6,000 points. It took Trump a year to do the same; 1/8/18, 2:10 PM
rehajm said...: How DOES Obama do it...and certainly in such a time delayed fashion.

Obama's predecessor was responsible for the mess he inherited when he took office and now he gets credit for the strong economy of his successor. At least they're consistent...; 1/8/18, 2:11 PM
buwaya said...: "That is the problem with experts. They aren't."

I disagree again, sadly.
They often are proper experts.
The problem is that on matters where their interests conflict with their expertise, their interests usually prevail. It is very difficult, often enough, to tell the boss he is wrong.; 1/8/18, 2:12 PM
Seeing Red said...: I was reading Marginal Revolution over the weekend —I read other blogs I think this was at MR—and a commenter specifically mentioned Walker and Wisconsin and how it needed to go back to pre-Walker union rules and decisions.; 1/8/18, 2:13 PM
Seeing Red said...: Power to the downtrodden people yada yada.; 1/8/18, 2:14 PM
Chuck said...: Birches said...
Chuck, this has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with Walker.

Okay; I get that. I didn't at first, but if you say so, okay.

So again what I say is that Rick Snyder (and his all-Republican state legislature) and John Kasich (and his all-Republican state legislature) saw the same sorts of employment numbers in Michigan and Ohio, respectively.

Michigan unemployment in 2010 was around 13%. And now it's around 5%. Ohio went from over 10% unemployment to about 5.5% now, with a very large bump in labor force participation.

So yeah; good for Walker (I love Scott Walker). And good for Never-Trumpers Rick Snyder and John Kasich too.; 1/8/18, 2:18 PM
MaxedOutMama said...: I think Scott Walker has been a wonderful governor for WI. I hope someday he gets the credit for an excellent balancing act that made a meaningful positive difference to people's lives.

The suffering, depression and despair from long-term joblessness are not really mitigated by government welfare programs. Those may keep you alive, but they do nothing to make your life worth living.; 1/8/18, 2:21 PM
wwww said...: The US has been under full employment for a while now. It's not specific to Wisconsin. I've been wondering about the Fed & if they'll make a move to curb inflation worries.; 1/8/18, 2:32 PM
buwaya said...: Ohio has not done as well as Wisconsin, 2008-2017.
See my post above on total employment ratios.

Michigan has done well, from a rather poor situation even in 2008 - it is another state that has not just recovered, but exceeded its pre-recession condition -

November population employment ratio -
MI
2008 - 56.8
2010 - 54.0
2017 - 58.6; 1/8/18, 2:33 PM
buwaya said...: "The US has been under full employment for a while now. "

I do not think this is correct. It has not yet recovered to the situation in 2008, much less 1999-2000.; 1/8/18, 2:35 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger buwaya said...
"That is the problem with experts. They aren't."
I disagree again, sadly.
They often are proper experts.

I have liberal friends.
They do not believe in the wisdom of crowds.
They believe that as bad as the performance of experts is, it would always be worse if the non-expert people were left to their own devices.
Hence the Krugman phenomena. No matter how wrong Krugman is, people will always accept the word of a guy with a PhD in economics & a Nobel prize over a guy with two semesters of economics from a community college.
Even if the community college guy's predictions are more accurate than Krugman's.; 1/8/18, 2:39 PM
Jaq said...: Actually Minnesota has done better.

How did your “Walker = Hitler” prognostication work out, now that we have had time to evaluate it? Now that “time has told”? Did any death camps open up in Osh Kosh?

Oh, wait, the police state stuff was all from the other side....

But you can believe Inga on Trump! She will be right this time! She’s due!; 1/8/18, 2:42 PM
John henry said...: Buwaya said

I think if you had a look at Northern California/Central Valley, say, you would find a great number of unemployed or under-employed workers.

No doubt you can. But can you find unemployed or underemployed qualified workers. That can pass a drug test, read and write at some suitable level, show up to work and so on.

I've not talked to people in Chico but have worked for a company in Modesto which I think is the same area. A national brand you would recognize but which I won't mention. probably 5-600 employees in the plant. They had trouble hiring when I was there and that was around 10 years ago.

What do employers in Chico say? Do they say it is easy to find workers? How long does it take to fill a position? The first Bing looking for "hiring in Chico" shows 1,356 jobs currently open. https://www.indeed.com/l-Chico,-CA-jobs.html Chico population is 86m. October 2017 unemployment rate 5.6%

Or are you just going by the numbers which make it appear that there are a lot of workers (but not necessarily qualified workers) available?

John Henry; 1/8/18, 2:43 PM
Michelle Dulak Thomson said...: Sorry if this is already asked and answered, but how is that state gerrymandered? Those districts practically define "compact and contiguous." Compare to MD, say.

I know that people in WI say darkly, "Oh, it doesn't look gerrymandered, but it is." Still, from here it looks exactly like a text-book perfect redistricting, with as many squarish districts as possible and no wacky ones.; 1/8/18, 2:48 PM
Birkel said...: buwaya:

Experts:
Farmers are expert at farming.
Physicists are experts in impossibly small areas of physics.
Economists are social scientists and not experts, except in math that includes so many assumptions that there is no reality.

And which of them is called an expert?

There is no expert about buwaya moreso than buwaya (and perhaps his wife).
To what end?; 1/8/18, 2:49 PM
Chuck said...: But the set of voters who went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016 were not moved by statistics.

And not by any ideology, it would seem. Or any principles. And certainly not for any practical bipartisan problem solving either. Because the most devoted cross-the-aisle guy in the United States Senate in the 21st century was Senator John McCain.

Compared to McCain, Obama was a pure partisan street-fighter.

I think that the commonality for persons who voted for Obama and also for Trump is that they are credulous, emotional, easily-frightened and easily-duped people.

Note that I would NOT SAY SUCH A THING ABOUT ALL "TRUMP" VOTERS. I am a Trump voter. Or was. But I was never, ever, an Obama voter. I am talking about the cognitive dissonance that necessarily accompanies Obama-Trump voters.; 1/8/18, 2:52 PM
Francisco D said...: Scott Walker was my first favorite in the Republican primaries. He seemed to fizzle out because his personality was too low key for the national stage.

Wisconsin, where it is OK to be low key, is lucky to have him.; 1/8/18, 2:52 PM
tcrosse said...: If congress acts to decriminalize Pot, will job candidates still be tested and disqualified for it ? Asking for a friend.; 1/8/18, 2:53 PM
buwaya said...: "Hence the Krugman phenomena."

Krugman knows better.
Or he knows how to know better. He has the tools.

Krugman is simply dishonest.
He is one of those experts who knows where his money (and prestige, etc., all the Devils temptations) is coming from.; 1/8/18, 2:54 PM
Birkel said...: Fopdoodles have the hardest time understanding what moved voters in 2008 and 2016 was events.

Events, dear fopdoodle. Events.; 1/8/18, 2:55 PM
wwww said...: "The US has been under full employment for a while now. "
I do not think this is correct. It has not yet recovered to the situation in 2008, much less 1999-2000.

Yeah, I agree with you on not recovered from 2008. The people who permanently left the market aren't being calculated. What I mean is that the USA unemployment rate is under 5%, full employment by the FEDs definition.

I've been casually watching for a while now because what the Fed do may affect international mortgage rates. But I cannot remember the month it got close to 5% and then dropped.; 1/8/18, 2:57 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: Comparing Wisconsin to Minnesota is somewhat apples to oranges. The Twin cities are the financial center of the upper Midwest. Milwaukee, due to its proximity to Chicago, will never have that advantage. The result is a larger dependency on manufacturing in Wisconsin. No Democrat can change this.

Regardless, Wisconsin has fared very well under Walker. From Forbes:

Minnesota had a lower unemployment rate and higher income than Wisconsin at the start of 2011. But since then, the unemployment rate has fallen more in Wisconsin and per capita output growth in Wisconsin has outpaced Minnesota each year. Since 2012 real per capita disposable personal income—a broad measure of average after-tax income—has fallen in Minnesota. In Wisconsin, due to reductions in state taxes, real after-tax incomes have increased twice as fast as the nation as a whole.

The labor market in Wisconsin tightened substantially under Gov. Walker, with the unemployment rate falling from 8.1% in December 2010 to 4.6% in May 2015. In addition, labor force participation has been roughly stable over the past few years around 68%. By contrast, participation nationwide has fallen to under 63%, levels not seen since the late 1970s. Some of this decline has been demographic, but an important component has been discouraged unemployed workers leaving the labor force.
A useful statistic including these workers is the employment-population ratio, measuring the fraction of the population that is working. In May, it stood at 59.4% nationally and 64.8% in Wisconsin, the 10th highest in any state.; 1/8/18, 2:58 PM
buwaya said...: "They had trouble hiring when I was there and that was around 10 years ago."

Ten years ago.
CA was hit very hard by the recession, especially in the Central Valley (Modesto), where there had been a tremendous building boom. After that you had square miles of forclosed/unsalable residential and commercial property, and a huge exodus of people looking for work. And businesses leaving for less-regulated states.

"Or are you just going by the numbers which make it appear that there are a lot of workers (but not necessarily qualified workers) available?"

I'm going by word from, among others, recruiters at Chico State, which has a fine manufacturing (machining, etc.) program, in that the kids have lots of options from recruiters - out of state.; 1/8/18, 3:00 PM
wwww said...: Sorry if this is already asked and answered, but how is that state gerrymandered? Those districts practically define "compact and contiguous." Compare to MD, say.

I dunno, but my guess is those are Wisconsin counties? Political districts may not conform to the shape of the counties.; 1/8/18, 3:01 PM
bagoh20 said...: Neither Obama or nor Trump made that thing. The people of Wisconsin, specifically the working people, the business people made that happen. Walker helped as much as a governor can, but that's mostly relegated to getting government out of the way, which he did. Obama couldn't help improving things. No matter who was President, the economy would have improved from the bottom of a major recession. It would have improved faster and farther under Trump, but even a President is limited in his powers beyond getting out of the way, and much more powerfully, letting the people who actually build that thing feel confident that they are free to prosper if they risk their time and money. We do this miracle, and we should never forget that, and neither should the politicians taking credit for it.; 1/8/18, 3:04 PM
Seeing Red said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 1/8/18, 3:05 PM
buwaya said...: November population employment ratio -
MN
2008 - 67.9
2010 - 66.1
2017 - 68.4

Minnesota also outperformed the US in its recovery, and moreover it was extremely well-off, in terms of employment pre-recession.; 1/8/18, 3:06 PM
bagoh20 said...: Trump will likely have a great first term, but the odds are very good for another correction in the next 8 years, if not sooner. That's just the way the the pendulum swings most of the time.; 1/8/18, 3:07 PM
wwww said...: "Minnesota also outperformed the US in its recovery, and moreover it was extremely well-off, in terms of employment pre-recession."

Minneapolis is one of the best places in the USA to get a good white collar job with affordable housing and good schools.

And, hey, there's lots of hot dish and friends with cabins up north. If you can deal with the cold, it's a great place.; 1/8/18, 3:17 PM
Jaq said...: The problem with pot is that the effects linger for days. A guy isn’t drunk anymore, well then he’s sober, but do you want a guy with short memory problems, attention problems, working potentially dangerous machinery, on Monday, and Tuesday, while his weekend partakations clears?; 1/8/18, 3:18 PM
Seeing Red said...: Then there’s Illinois and Rauner’s ad with the governors of WI, IN and MO thanking Michael Madigan for his great job in steering the state!

Would Obama’s recovery been so anemic—the new normal—if Obamacare wasn’t jammed down our throats?

Remove the cap rule based on France.; 1/8/18, 3:19 PM
Jaq said...: First time I tried pot was in college. I remember going to my class in thermodynamics a day or two later, and the 50 minutes was spent on a single problem. I was lost after fifteen minutes. Never had been a problem before. I don’t see how legalizing it fixes that, unless you are one of those people who thinks that the value for Pi should be set by legislation, so stoners could do better at math.; 1/8/18, 3:21 PM
tcrosse said...: Minneapolis is one of the best places in the USA to get a good white collar job with affordable housing and good schools.

St Paul isn't so bad, either. Or Golden Valley. Or Bloomington. Or Maplewood. I could go on.; 1/8/18, 3:23 PM
gerry said...: We now have the lowest black unemployment rate in 45 years.

Yet Chuck and Inga long for the good old days of the Obama economy.

Why do Chuck and Inga hate black people so much? Why do they want to deprive black people of opportunity, prosperity, and greater dignity? It is a puzzle.; 1/8/18, 3:32 PM
buwaya said...: "Would Obama’s recovery been so anemic—the new normal—if Obamacare wasn’t jammed down our throats?"

Obamacare certainly didn't help the employment recovery. It increased employment costs through much more costly private insurance coverage standards. This has not yet been fixed btw, nor have I heard of much in this direction.

The BLS data is quite clear here. I have posted this several times before.
Total employment costs vs wages&salaries indices.

Employment Cost Index

That huge (and cumulative, note, these are cost escalation rates) bump 2010-2015, outstripping wages&salaries - that is the increase in cost of mandated benefits.
It suddenly became much more expensive to hire people, and it was not because they were getting paid more.; 1/8/18, 3:36 PM
gilbar said...: my GOD! this is horrible news!
Without unemployment, there won't be unemployment checks
And I heard that Nancy Pelosi says that unemployment checks are
The Number ONE driver of the economy.
Without those checks, and the imaginative doubling factors they produce...
THE ENTIRE ECONOMY IS DOOMED!!!!; 1/8/18, 3:39 PM
MikeD said...: Regarding the MN economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98HqL6ch8Pg; 1/8/18, 4:14 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: What Walker's triumph obscures is that economic indicators are up across the board, significantly so since Trump assumed the presidency. I expect that this is in anticipation of greater GDP growth. Greater GDP growth is the tide that lifts all boats. Business and labor do better if there is greater GDP growth.
Because liberals do not believe in economic growth anymore, they downplay its positive effects.
The market looks to the future. It is silly to say that any economic good news is the result of Onbama's economic policy bearing fruit. If this was an "Obama boom" it would have been stillborn, since the market sees Trump repudiating Obama's economic policies.
Liberals, you live in a fantasy world. It is not conservatives and regular Americans who have gone mad. If you want to know who has gone mad, look in the frikkin' mirror.; 1/8/18, 4:47 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Amazing.; 1/8/18, 4:51 PM
Matt Sablan said...: I wonder if like the stimulus if Trump's tax bill will fail every metric of success laid out for itself, even by its allies.; 1/8/18, 5:08 PM
Matt Sablan said...: Maybe we can measure it in wages saved or created.; 1/8/18, 5:09 PM
Matt Sablan said...: How does Obama get any credit? His own administration estimated the economy without his stimulus and policies being worse than it was during his tenure with them. They were economic illiterates as their own estimates showed.; 1/8/18, 5:18 PM
Sprezzatura said...: Matt,

Your 5:18 statement could be better written to better express what you intend. IMHO.

Anywho, presumably yur talkin' about BHO's 2012 campaign promise:

"I can tell you that over a period of four years, by virtue of the policies that we'd put in place, we'd get the unemployment rate down to 6%, and perhaps a little lower,"; 1/8/18, 5:31 PM
Original Mike said...: Bruce Ohr demoted again?; 1/8/18, 5:33 PM
Chuck said...: gerry said...
We now have the lowest black unemployment rate in 45 years.

Yet Chuck and Inga long for the good old days of the Obama economy.

Why do Chuck and Inga hate black people so much? Why do they want to deprive black people of opportunity, prosperity, and greater dignity? It is a puzzle.

Do I really need to respond to this trashtalk?

I never once voted for Obama. I volunteered for the RNLA in the 2008 and 2012 elections. The one thing I wrote about Obama on this page was that he was "a partisan street fighter." I cannot remember a Democrat whom I might have voted for.

I stated earlier that I loved Scott Walker. On plenty of other pages, I have expressed admiration for the administration of Rick Snyder in Michigan, and John Kasich in Ohio.

And out of all that, you get I "long for the good old days of the Obama economy" and that I "hate black people"?

I am not taking that last taunt from you, or from anybody. And I don't really care who or what you are. Shove it, you worthless clown.; 1/8/18, 5:34 PM
buwaya said...: PB&J,

"I can tell you that over a period of four years, by virtue of the policies that we'd put in place, we'd get the unemployment rate down to 6%, and perhaps a little lower,"

Unemployment - Employment Ratio

Promise accomplished!
There are, however, many ways to lie.; 1/8/18, 5:36 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Oh I know. That Trump must have done a hell of a job in the past seven years of his presidency. Why, it's like the president before him must have not done anything at all.

Great way to cherry pick data. To make things easier, Republicans should just declare what data they feel they have a political obligation to ignore, and leave it at that. It would make having to reason with them that much easier.; 1/8/18, 5:38 PM
buwaya said...: "John Kasich in Ohio"

Has not done all that well, if you want to ascribe performance differentials to state administrations.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota have been exemplary however.; 1/8/18, 5:38 PM
buwaya said...: "Great way to cherry pick data. "

You don't have to cherry pick anything.
The data is all here, get out your Excel and analyze away -

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt

Don't be lazy.; 1/8/18, 5:41 PM
Sprezzatura said...: Buw,

That was Romney's campaign promise.

My bad, I got him mixed up w/ BHO.; 1/8/18, 5:41 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: I like how no one on this blog asks how 2010 even happened in the first place. Never mind the glaring fact behind the curtain!; 1/8/18, 5:45 PM
buwaya said...: "That was Romney's campaign promise."

He lied too.
Notice a pattern?

Hence Trump.; 1/8/18, 5:45 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Don't be lazy.

Lazy is neglecting to show the relevant 2010 to 2016 change, so that the blog serves its primary function of riling up the Trump followers by skipping right to 2017.; 1/8/18, 5:48 PM
buwaya said...: "I like how no one on this blog asks how 2010 even happened in the first place."

Its called the business cycle.

More directly, its the sort of thing that happened to my old employer AIG - a gang of pirates colluded with NY AG Eliot Spitzer to kick out my old boss Maurice Greenberg, and let them use AIG as a platform for insane derivatives speculation out of their London office. Multiply that madness by 100 or so and you got the crash of 2008.

But this sort of thing, of one sort or another, happens before every crash. If not AIG it would have been some other outfit, and was. Humans suck and they will go mad, predictably.; 1/8/18, 5:50 PM
Original Mike said...: "I like how no one on this blog asks how 2010 even happened in the first place."

We were all alive then. We all know.; 1/8/18, 5:57 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Its called the business cycle.

No it's not.

Other business cycles happened between 1929 and 2008. But somehow without the same magnitude of downturn.

Why do you always insist on arguing in circles? You really do just put your fingers in your ears and hum to yourself, don't you?

The regulations that kept the "business cycles" after the depression from turning into other depressions worked.

If you're pro-depression, just say so. I'm sick of all the lies and language games, Big Brother.; 1/8/18, 5:59 PM
Sprezzatura said...: "Humans suck and they will go mad, predictably."

That only happens when there are regulations and rules.

When left un-monitored the free market lifts all boats and makes poor, dumb people rich. Everybody knows that.

Hence Trump.; 1/8/18, 5:59 PM
buwaya said...: "Lazy is neglecting to show the relevant 2010 to 2016 change"

Data I linked has population and employment figures for every state, monthly, going back to 1976. And see my posts re relative performance of Wisconsin, out of that data, 2008-2010-2017, which is pretty good vs the national average.

Diligence. Curiosity.; 1/8/18, 5:59 PM
Comanche Voter said...: A nice little map you have there Ms. Althhouse. It would have been a shame if Hillary had been elected and messed it up.; 1/8/18, 6:07 PM
buwaya said...: "But somehow without the same magnitude of downturn."

There have been worse "magnitudes of downturn" depending on your metric.
These things happen, and like earthquakes the intensity varies.
1980-82 was nearly as bad, but the economy was in a far better position to recover quickly.

The role of public policy is not in preventing them, as arguably doing so will just make them worse (which is likely a factor in 2000/2001 also), but how quickly does the economy come back.; 1/8/18, 6:10 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Diligence. Curiosity.

Things that I have. I looked at it.

Things that the commenters (and probably the host) don't.

People choose what they want to present. They do it when they post data that's allowed to be posted visually.; 1/8/18, 6:10 PM
buwaya said...: "That only happens when there are regulations and rules."

I don't think anyone can show that regulations and rules do squat, other than to add yet more things for people to abuse. See Schumpeter. Rules are tools for those with the power to exploit them.; 1/8/18, 6:12 PM
buwaya said...: "(think bunny, think!)"

The productive thing to do is find alternate data with which to check Althouse.
I did, see above re employment rates.

Lazy, lazy, its very easy to check stats.; 1/8/18, 6:21 PM
buwaya said...: We were taught mathematics by the sainted Mrs. Bulakaw, with her 6-foot bamboo.
There are people here who, perhaps, would have benefited from that 6-foot bamboo.; 1/8/18, 6:23 PM
Rusty said...: "Right here and right now there is a widespread belief that the unregulated market is what got us into our present economic predicament, and that the government must “do something” to get the economy moving again. FDR’s intervention in the 1930s has often been cited by those who think this way. …Although the big stock market crash occurred in October 1929, unemployment never reached double digits in any of the next 12 months after that crash. Unemployment peaked at 9 percent, two months after the stock market crashed– and then began drifting generally downward over the next six months, falling to 6.3 percent by June 1930. This was what happened in the market, before the federal government decided to “do something.” What the government decided to do in June 1930– against the advice of literally a thousand economists, who took out newspaper ads warning against it– was impose higher tariffs, in order to save American jobs by reducing imported goods. This was the first massive federal intervention to rescue the economy, under President Herbert Hoover, who took pride in being the first President of the United States to intervene to try to get the economy out of an economic downturn. Within six months after this government intervention, unemployment shot up into double digits– and stayed in double digits in every month throughout the entire remainder of the decade of the 1930s, as the Roosevelt administration expanded federal intervention far beyond what Hoover had started. If more government regulation of business is the magic answer that so many seem to think it is, the whole history of the 1930s would have been different."

That's right,ritmo. FDR was a god. Why. If it weren't for Hitler we'd still be in a depression.
Pick another subject.Something you're good at.; 1/8/18, 6:30 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Pick another subject.

Here's a subject: "How to quote without attributing. So you can't know the source." Something you're apparently good at.

And here's another subject: The bullshit in your quoted rant:

1. "What the government decided to do in June 1930– against the advice of literally a thousand economists, who took out newspaper ads warning against it– was impose higher tariffs, in order to save American jobs by reducing imported goods."

The only people proposing such a thing ever since about 1980 in America was/is Trump. Not since Krugman in the 1990s - and not for a long time even before - was this ever proposed by a mainstream economist, let alone anyone on the left.

But Trump says he's cool with it so I'll bet you'd be too, regardless of how it's slipped into the quote that rely on to do your thinking for you.

2. Depressions were regular occurrences all throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. After FDR's OTHER reforms (the ones your leader doesn't mention) they never happened. And a recession even approaching that magnitude never occurred until 2008, barely ten years after the most major depression-era regulation was repealed: Glass-Steagall.

Evidence. Facts. Reason. Relevance. Context. Your unattributed quote is no match for those things.; 1/8/18, 6:46 PM
gadfly said...: The gross numbers are impressive. December 2017 Total Wisconsin Workforce vs December 2010 shows an increase of 86M while employment numbers went up 241M over the same timeframe.; 1/8/18, 6:50 PM
buwaya said...: US depressions pre-1929 were very short.
The distinguishing thing about the "great" one was not just its depth, but its length.

And, note, most of the world emerged from it much faster than the US, though not without political consequences, and its fair to say that the sheer length of the US version of the depression had knock-on effects abroad.

The US had a good number of "recessions" post-1945 ("panic" and "depression" had become unfashionable). But they came on regardless. Again, the distinguishing feature of 2008+ was the very slow recovery, in the US. The rest of the world pulled out of it much faster.; 1/8/18, 6:56 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: US depressions pre-1929 were very short.

What's your point, Bizarro Buwayo? They were still depressions - not good for anybody. Evening out the lows and highs were part of our boom. You pine for a time when malnutrition was rampant and poverty a persistent threat. Especially in old age. You really don't know shit about the many ways America changed for the better after FDR. Every post you upload is an ignorant piece of historical and intellectual malpractice, and should come with a disclaimer about how much stupider it's bound to make anyone reading it.

I seriously think you're in love with your own ignorance. You seem to get off on the idea of revising reality and enslaving it to this whimsical creativity you apply to what are basically factual issues.

I think people become dumber just by being around you. You would argue with gravity while being dangled out of a tall building. Seriously.

I think you're about two shots of Haldol from being permanently restrained in a mental institution.; 1/8/18, 7:32 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: I see the Pointless Revolutionary is trying to talk about economics.
Let's call it "Lewis's First Law": the more a blog commenter is obsessed about something, the less he knows about it.; 1/8/18, 7:45 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: I see the Pointless Revolutionary is trying to talk about economics.

There wasn't any "try." I did. Successfully. Nothing I said you can find fault with.

So of course, like a good Trumpeze artist, you shoot the messenger instead. The last refuge of a scoundrel. Making everything about personalities and drama and avoiding facts, Daniel Boone.

the more a blog commenter is obsessed about something, the less he knows about it.

Nice backwards non-reasoning. It sounds like a justification for all the things you obviously don't know a thing about.

But I guess you felt just insecure enough about it to pop into this thread like a weasel to both give yourself away and divert at the same time.; 1/8/18, 7:49 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: How can you find fault with a mad man's blathering?
"Evening out the lows and highs were part of our boom."
This makes no sense. A boom is a high.
"You pine for a time when malnutrition was rampant and poverty a persistent threat."
No one pines for that. Jesus. That is like saying that a person who wants a return to the family stability of the 1950s pines for the return of Stalin and the gulags. Make sense & stop wasting presious pixels, Pointless Revoltionary.; 1/8/18, 7:57 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Keep being a weasel, talking to yourself, avoiding the point, and yapping like a ninny.; 1/8/18, 8:01 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: I'm not a weasel, I am a Wetzel!
Tell me again about the boom that evens out the highs and lows, you glorified phlebotomist.; 1/8/18, 8:09 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: It was upward growth the whole way. The way a boom should be. With no sine wave superimposed on it. Steady, upwards, unrelenting, no peaks or valleys.

Does that describe the basic idea effectively to an innumerate like you? Yes, it does? Good, I hope so.

No, it doesn't? Then just stay at the back of the class, you clown, and leave me alone. I've got some teachable to be talking to.

You cons are all alike. It's like you demand that reality make sense to your feeble minds, or else you proclaim that it doesn't exist. Even the simplest reality broken down into the simplest terms.

You people are a waste.; 1/8/18, 8:28 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: People who have their view of economics informed by pop culture tend to be dumb about economics. If you watch the movies and read popular novels you will think that the Victorian age was an age of unprecedented poverty and economic failure. In fact, world GDP increased by about a factor of 20 between 1800 and 1900. Between 1900 and 2000 world GDP increased "only" by a factor of about 10. Keynes had nothing but praise for Victorian policies that produced high growth, and he identified these policies as originating in a culture that placed a high value on saving, and the economic independence of its citizenry. Unemployment was very low, close to non-existent, in Victorian England because if you didn't work, you would starve.
And no, I am not "pining for the days of workhouses." Most people don't understand how the Victorian workhouses came about, or who paid for them, anyway.; 1/8/18, 8:32 PM
Dude1394 said...: Get unwoke, get unbroke. Isn't it a shame that Wisconsin denigrates would look at that map a wonder how people could vote against their self interests.; 1/8/18, 8:36 PM
Danno said...: Dane County WI was white in 2010 largely due to that "sucking sound" that caused Wisconsin taxpayers' money to historically go to Madison to feed its government from the hardscrabble places that are not prosperous. Exhibit 1 is JH Findorff construction who builds most of the new buildings for the state or UW Madison.; 1/8/18, 9:07 PM
FIDO said...: Major story on CNBC right now: Now that the Forces of Dorkness have been Trumped, there is a renewed interest in investing in healthcare.

I read this story about time travel and this Baron, seeing a merchant, decided that the merchant was going to give the Baron LAVISH Christmas gifts and get puny compensation for his goods.

Needless to say, there were very few merchants who visited this Baron...willingly at least.

There is a lesson for those who are Obamacare supporters...if they are smart enough to learn it.; 1/9/18, 6:59 AM
Rusty said...: "Evidence. Facts. Reason. Relevance. Context."
You might want to use those sometime.

Start with William Manchester's "The Glory and The Dream." and use the bibliography for further reading.
BTW Howard Zinn doesn't count.; 1/9/18, 9:16 AM