May 8, 2017

"The 43 people who might run against Trump in 2020."

A piece at The Hill. I haven't read it yet, but there's just one name I do not want to see. There's a certain someone who needs to step back and let other candidacies develop.

Okay, now I'm looking.
With no clear leader, the 2020 field should be a change from 2016, when Democrats had a small field of candidates, including front-runner Hillary Clinton.
I nearly lost my mind before focusing and reading that correctly. No, Hillary is not one of the 43, and she is certainly not the "front-runner."

My pet theory these days is that the people want excitement and will vote for the more entertaining character and what it takes to excite us properly keeps amping up. First, Obama, then, Trump, so what's next in this series? I'll extract the possibilities from the 43 on the list. I was going to exclude all the elected officials, but I let one on. In the order that they appear in the linked article:

Facebook CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg: Zuckerberg, 32, who also co-founded an immigration advocacy organization, created some buzz when he said he’ll visit all 50 states this year....

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.): Franken, 65, emerged as a tough critic during the confirmation hearings for Trump’s Cabinet picks...

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban: The billionaire businessman and “Shark Tank” star frequently clashed with Trump in 2016 and endorsed Clinton. Cuban, 58, has said “we will see” about whether he runs for president....

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg: Sandberg, 47, drew praise for her book “Lean In,” which discusses women in the workforce, but she has said she won’t run and will “continue to say no.”

Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz: Schultz, 63, is stepping down from his role and will be executive chairman. He was urged by friend to run in 2016, but he endorsed Clinton.

Former first lady Michelle Obama: The former first lady proved a formidable campaigner for Clinton in 2016, but Obama, 53, and others close to her have said she won’t run for elected office.

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: The wrestler and star of the “Fast and the Furious” film franchise has flirted with running for office. A registered Republican, Johnson, 45, spoke at the party’s convention in 2000, but documentary filmmaker Michael Moore has urged him to run. One potential political ally: Warren, who has described herself as a fan of Johnson’s HBO show “Ballers.”...

Media mogul Oprah Winfrey: Winfrey, 63, who endorsed Clinton, is frequently floated for president but has said she will “never” run.
Who do you think would make the most formidable opponent for Trump?
 
pollcode.com free polls

80 comments:

readering said...

None of the above

Big Mike said...

readering beat me to it.

khesanh0802 said...

I read the whole list and my first impression is that there is no there there. Lots of special interest types. Amy Klobuchar my be one of the hardest working legit pols on that list, but my innate conservatism keeps me from liking any of the choices. The world will have changed drastically before the 2020 campaign begins.

Virtually Unknown said...

It's up to them, but my advice, which they won't take, is to not pick somebody that half the country has hated for decades.

Tank said...

Woman?

Black?

Weight isues?

Three checks for three interest groups.

Opeah!

john said...

All of the above. This assumes that Trump will actually run in 2020, and that might depend on the mid-term's and whether he will have a republican majority.

Then again, he might enjoy having a democrat majority for the second half of his first term.

Tank said...

Opeah? LOL

Virtually Unknown said...

She has hundreds of millions of dollars. She and Bill will be fine if she is never president. Just sayin'

Michael K said...

Once you eliminate the Medicare beneficiaries, the list gets much smaller.

Cory Booker and Kamala Harris seem to be logical if the DNC wants to try to resurrect the Obama coalition.

Cuban and Steyer seem to be ego trips.

Ann Althouse said...

"None of the above."

That is an illogical response. The question is only who in a set of 8 is "most formidable." Even if all are very weak, one is the strongest. It's a comparative standard. We're grading on a curve. Someone is best. You have to pick.

buwaya said...

Booker and Kamala Harris may have more skeletons in the closet than is convenient, but they should be on the short list.

Ann Althouse said...

"Starbucks' Howard Schultz: Childhood in the projects inspired his ambition."

Chuck said...

Weird. It's all about the Democrats. And not about any Republican primary challengers. Oh well. Some people are probably interested in the Democrats.

Doug said...

Michael K said: "Cuban and Steyer seem to be ego trips."
Donald Trump seemed to be an ego trip. The rabid lefties are sure of it.

Rick said...

Gavin Newsome. He's young and a first which the media can use to draw attention away from his policy positions.

john said...

OK, if our hostess insists, I'll take Schultz, but only on the basis that only billionaires should now be running for president.

He is worth $2.9 billion, yet is only the 595th richest person in the US. That means there is a huge pool of qualified presidential candidates.

(His is also a perfect rags-to-riches story.)

eric said...

It's Oprah's if she wants it.

She will have throngs of women voting for her because she is Oprah.

Dave from Minnesota said...

Amy Klobuchar is a very skilled politician. A hard core liberal who always smiles. Her staff makes sure she is constantly attending public events and Twin Cities media lover her. They always point her out on their evening news.
"Today was the walk for (whatever charity or maybe a parade), and here we see senator Klobuchar....."

She's like the opposite of Hillary. Not in policy, but how she looks in public. Actually Klobuchar may be to the left of Hillary. But at least she smiles when she screws you over.

readering said...

Ok Spock. But I don't know enough about their political positions, besides Franken. At least Trump talking about the issues for decades.

So I'll go with Franken.

Rick said...

Julián Castro is the next toughest. He has the same advantages as Newsome, plus the association with Fidel locks up the far left. The only reason he's behind Newsome is the latter's lock on California.

AReasonableMan said...

Now that Trump has become president Oprah as president doesn't seem so far-fetched.

buwaya said...

"Gavin Newsom"

Not terribly well supported in the CA Democratic party.
In that pit of depravity he stands out as the least worst.
In SF as mayor he was something of a conservative, other than the marriage stunt.

He has a beautiful wife and a lot of very cute kids - the new wife, not Kimberly Guilfoyle.

On the other hand, he's too white, too rich but not quite rich enough, pleasant enough but not entertaining.

Dave from Minnesota said...

My guess is the Democrats will end up with one of two types:

A hard liberal who is actually a reasonably nice person. Someone who has 2 boxes checked (women, hispanic, black etc). This will placate the left if the person isn't a fire breathing ranter. And we can make history!

Or a fire breathing ranter. Read the Washington Post comments section, even on non-political stories. There are a lot of angry lefties who want to go after big business, Christians, private schools, etc. They are hungry for power after losing first to Hillary, and then to Trump.

MaxedOutMama said...

After Trump we may be in the mood for boring confidence.

Virgil Hilts said...

Most formidable in terms of beating Ivanka or in terms of beating large field of democratic losers? 2 different Qs. Tulsi Gabbard is the only cool Dem on the list.
Kamala Harris is a horrible corrupt person who has no business being on the national stage. And she's not even smart (see her tweet today about 129 million people losing insurance).

David Baker said...

Zuckerberg... by a mile.

Dave from Minnesota said...

ARMan.....I wonder if the stage is set for celebrity presidential nominations. I would put Obama as one. A man with very limited qualifications, but boy he gave a great speech. And he's black (sic)! And The Donald certainly qualifies as one. After Hillary, maybe the Democrats will look for someone famous to run.

Ann Althouse said...

Now that Trump has shown how a candidate with his own money can do it, donors may hesitate to throw money at some Senator or Governor who's trying to rake it in. They'll think of all that was wasted on Jeb. They should hesitate, and then only the billionaires will have traction. It won't seem so weird anymore, now that Trump has done it and anyway, we've shown our taste for the bizarre.

The question is: Which billionaire?

MaxedOutMama said...

And boring competence. I still think Scott Walker has a chance.

But it is too soon to seriously even contemplate. As long as Hillary or Chelsea is not stuffed in our faces, we are just about guaranteed a much better Democratic candidate - so we have that going for us.

Dave from Minnesota said...

David Baker...he appears to be setting himself up for something.

Ann Althouse said...

That must be a record: 6 comments going up simultaneously.

(At 4:45)

Tarrou said...

Let's just cut to the chase and let the Democrats nominate the guy they really, truly wish could lead this nation. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

robother said...

Al Franken is the most formidable of this group. His ability to slip in and out of his Stewart Smalley character could pose challenging to Trump in debates. Developing a transgender character could give him an "out pitch".

cubanbob said...

What are the Democrats going to run on? Open borders? Insufficient number of poor people to maintain the welfare state workforce? Insufficiently high taxes? A shortage of domestic criminals so we need to import criminals to keep the cops busy and the jails full?

Right now the Republicans can blow it but the Democrats absent some disaster can't win.

readering said...

I would have voted for Bloomberg.

readering said...

now he's too old

Bay Area Guy said...

I think there are really only 5 viable candidates on the list:

1. Cory Booker
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Andrew Cuomo
4. Terry McAuliffe
5. Chris Murphy


Bernie Sanders, clearly, has the most energy and excitement, so he's the wildcard. But he'll be 79 in 2020, kinda dated, no?

Sorry, Dems, your bench ain't deep.

Rick said...

cubanbob said...
What are the Democrats going to run on?


The same thing they always run on: "They're racist".

Dave from Minnesota said...

cubanbob,

I see the Democrats running on attacking others. The Man is keeping you down. The corporations are greedy. The rich get richer and everyone else is a victim. We need change! We need equality!!!

Just don't give specifics to what they plan to do. Just offer free unicorns to everyone.

khematite said...

Sort of interesting in itself that the first five names in that poll are all Jewish, that two of the remaining three are Black, and that one is of mixed Black-Samoan ancestry.

Michael K said...

Gavin Newsome. He's young and a first which the media can use to draw attention away from his policy positions.

I personally know people who are planning to leave California if he becomes Governor.

David Baker said...

Also, keep in mind that in four years we could be very tired of winning, therefore would welcome back a bonafide loser: Hillary Clinton

Lewis Wetzel said...

The most formidable opponent would be the one who recognized why Hillary failed. Competing with Trump for populist appeal would also be important.
Dwayne Johnson.

Static Ping said...

Normally I would disqualify anyone on the list with little or no political experience but (1) Obama and Trump fit that description nicely and won, (2) after 4 years of Trump and Hillary's implosion what the state of the Democratic primary system will be is anyone's guess, and (3) we may have another "anybody but X" election which skews things. There's a lot of empty suits in the list which says something about the Democratic Party at this point. Then again the Republicans had a deep bench - a legitimate deep bench - and ended up with Trump.

Given recent events, I am not sure there is such a thing as a political expert at this time. This is chaos theory.

sinz52 said...

Speculation on politics in the year 2020 is dumb at this point.

In 2013, who thought that Trump would run for President four years later, get the GOP nomination, and win the Presidential election?

3rdGradePB_GoodPerson said...

DJT is old and ugly. Will be more so in 2020.

David said...

Don't Knock The Rock.
He's Not A Sheath For Putin's Cock.

cubanbob said...

3rdGradePB_GoodPerson said...
DJT is old and ugly. Will be more so in 2020."

But not as old and ugly as Hillary and not as stupid and as the rest of the plausible Democrats. As for the list, I see a few billionaires, none of which are going to be proposing raising their capital gains taxes, inheritance taxes or income taxes. There is a reason the Democrats don't have the Congress, the presidency and the majority of the state governorship's and legislatures.

tcrosse said...

DJT is old and ugly. Will be more so in 2020.

You-Know-Who will be older and uglier in 2020.
None of us are getting any younger.

Clyde said...

Out of that group, I'll go with The Rock. He's got name recognition and a combination of toughness and likability that none of the others have, which could reach out to someone other than Democrats.

Of course, the real fallacy is that the best choice is someone with no experience in the field. We went with little government experience (Obama) and no government experience (Trump) in the two most recent administrations. If Trump is unsuccessful enough for a challenger to beat him in 2020, then it's likely that the pendulum will swing back toward more government experience, not less.

3rdGradePB_GoodPerson said...

"But not as old and ugly as Hillary"

Sure, but she often appears to have 1.5 feet in the grave.

Now that Canada and France have attractive folks, we must be hotter.

MAHA

Rabel said...

Althouse/2020

It's time for a little cruel neutrality.

Earnest Prole said...

I personally know people who are planning to leave California if [Gavin Newsom] becomes Governor.

Gavin Newsom is by far the most conservative, pro-business Democrat in California (which says as much about California as it does Gavin Newsom). If your California friends are depending on a long-shot Republican governor, perhaps they would be better off playing the lottery, or packing now.

Tyrone Workman said...

As always, the Democrats stand one charismatic empty suit away from power. It's just a matter of waiting to see which one they decide to take a flyer on next time.

Sebastian said...

Wait, people, I done told you already: it's gonna be Oprah/Cory vs. Nikki/Condi. Anyway, Oprah is The One. Called it months ago, so let's do our hostess a favor and put this to rest for the duration.

Michael K said...

If your California friends are depending on a long-shot Republican governor, perhaps they would be better off playing the lottery, or packing now.

No, but Newsome is far from your description.

Your comment about reflecting on California is right on, though.

I finally left last year after 60 years.

Rene Saunce said...

Goodwin thinks the fresh Clinton money grubbing means she's running again.

Rene Saunce said...

Be nice if the democrat party could lose the socialist control freak bent.

Rene Saunce said...

We need Singapore's retirement system.

Rene Saunce said...

Fav part.

"She has shifted the entire email scandal, which she created by deciding to use a private server and lying about it to the public, to the shoulders of Russian hackers and FBI Director Jim Comey. To hear her tell it, she was an innocent victim of their skulduggery."

Innocent Victim.

If the GOP were smart, the 2018 house campaigns should be about asking democrats if they agree with Hillary's use of a private server, her money grubbing, and Huma and Weiner. Shame the D-crats with Hillary slime.

Big Mike said...

Three of the 43 are Virgins from Virginia. Mark Warner, if he runs, has the best shot of the three, and quite possibly the best shot of the 43.

cubanbob said...

If the GOP were smart, the 2018 house campaigns should be about asking democrats if they agree with Hillary's use of a private server, her money grubbing, and Huma and Weiner. Shame the D-crats with Hillary slime."

Renee that is an excellent question to ask Sally Yates when she testifies in Congress.

The Godfather said...

It depends, first, on whether Trump looks beatable after 2018. If not, then the Dems will run one of the far-lefty names, like Granny Warren or Al Franken or Tom Perez, because that's who they love.

But if Trump looks vulnerable, then I would expect to see Cory Booker, in an attempt to re-create the Obama Coalition. And that might work. If I were Trump, I'd have folks doing oppo research on Booker right now. Bet that's already underway.

3rdGradePB_GoodPerson said...

"Mark Warner, if he runs, has the best shot"

Add Nina Tandon as VP.

Drago said...

3rdgrader: "Sure, but she often appears to have 1.5 feet in the grave."

Nonsense. She was just dehydrated! She was voted 6th most beautiful woman in the world by other leftists! That puts her ahead of Giselle!

Known Unknown said...

I see no one has mentioned that The Rock (who is winning the poll BTW) has The People's Elbow on his side.

The Rock in a landslide. (rimshot)

Earnest Prole said...

Newsome is far from your description.

You tell me if the author of the following lines is a Republican or a Democrat:

“Top-down, bureaucratic, hierarchical government is choking our democracy.”

“We need to allow people to bypass government . . . to look to themselves for solving problems rather than asking the government to do things for them.”

“Government is the ultimate monopoly. And monopolies, as any economist will tell you, often breed complacency and a lack of innovation.”

“Government can do best by simply getting out of the way.”

All are from Gavin Newsom’s book Citizenville.

Further details in “Gavin Newsom not your father’s Democrat” from The Orange County Register.

Yancey Ward said...

Clinton will run again. I think to stop her, the Democrats will have to convince Michelle Obama to run against her- she is the only candidate that can defeat her in the Democratic primaries, but it will be a death match to end all death matches.

Gospace said...

I'm going to be very cynical and realist. If the Dems are deranged enough to nominate Moochelle in 2020, the Republicans win with any white male politician who wins the nomination. Or with Trump if he goes for a second term or isn't successfully primaried. Every white male in the country who doesn't have their head up their posterior knows an administration headed by her would be a death knell for any promotion in their chosen career. As will every woman married to a white male. Any still in college will know that in her administration, their resumes once they graduate will be thrown in the trash unless no person of color or woman applies.

How many Asians do you think will vote for her? Hispanics? Minorities other then black may not vote for the Republican, but they ain't gonna vote for her. And whites who haven't voted in years will be motivated to turn out to vote against her.

Big Mike said...

Oops. It's four of forty-three who are Virginians. But it won't be Webb because he's too centerist for a party that's become as extremist as today's Democrats, and it won't be smarmy Tim Kaine, who is going to lose next year. Warner, if he's not also too centerist for his party will be dangerous to Trump.

Kate said...

I didn't see anyone mention that Zuckerberg would have to announce his candidacy before he's Constitutionally eligible to hold the office.

Our country's so crazy now that what should be a negative might actually be a positive.

That said, I voted for Franken.

The Drill SGT said...

Big Mike said...
Mark Warner, if he runs, has the best shot of the three, and quite possibly the best shot of the 43.


While I like him the best, he could not get nominated. Far too centrist.



Brando said...

Likely none of them. If you don't have an "heir apparent" at this stage it's likely to be someone no one has talked up until after the midterms.

We won't know the shape of the field until we know the state of the country by 2019. If the economy is strong and Trump's approvals rise above 50%, most younger top tier Dems will sit it out (and have no major GOP primary challenger). If on the other hand we hit a recession or his numbers are still in the low-40s, it'll be a free for all.

AllenS said...

Like others, I think that Clinton will run again. She has nothing else to do. The Clinton's still run most of the DNC, so she should be considered the front runner. Plus, she will have Chelsea in her corner, and by 2020, Chelsea will probably have the Peace Price, and numerous other awards to flaunt.

Johanna Lapp said...

"There's a plausible defense for the string of failures in his/her career."

Now THERE's an inspiring campaign slogan. The Dems should lock down the trademark now.

tcrosse said...

Clinton is already running again. We'll see whether she or Obama win the money-grubbing sweepstakes, and hence party clout.

TosaGuy said...

So who wins the following Dem primary out of these four candidate types?

White Liberal Woman: Klobuchar or Warren
Black Woman: Oprah or Michelle Obama
Young White Man: Newsome or Zuckerberg
Black/Hispanic Male: Booker or Castro

That is some primary divisiveness that won't be bridged by superdelegates, in fact they will worsen those divides.

Barbara said...

I see a few billionaires, none of which are going to be proposing raising their capital gains taxes, inheritance taxes or income taxes.

You are not subtle enough. Propose raising those taxes, but continue with the tax breaks that allow you to lower those taxes while spreading your ideas and supporting people who will support you. E.g., create a foundation to support various left causes. Just make sure to pretend it's doing all service and no advocacy.

Kirk Parker said...

readering,

"I would have voted for Bloomberg."

You are my mortal enemy.

chickelit said...

Offhand, I'd say Zuckerberg is the most likely to run. But for which party? I don't believe that after the 2016 upset, D-voters would go someone with such anti-American views of labor. Zuckerberg champions an "immigrants first" philosophy, especially regarding technical and scientific talent.