September 15, 2016

When Clinton was ahead, she had opened up a lead that left Trump with barely any hope, but as Trump takes the lead we hear about how they are "locked in a tight contest."

The quote is from a new NYT piece. I watched Jake Tapper's news show last night, and they could not stop saying the race was "tightening up," even as they were showing up new polls that showed an upswing toward Trump. Trump and Clinton seem to have essentially exchanged positions, and I remember that when Clinton was in the up position, Trump was presented as falling so far behind that the GOP ought to abandon him and concentrate on winning some of the down-ticket races.

I know that the Electoral College situation justifies some of the difference in how the 2 positions are viewed, but Trump's recent advances are stunning, and I could see that the stun had occurred from the faces of Jake Tapper and his poll-describing sidekick, the one whose name I can't remember because Meade and I took to calling him "False Toobin" a long time ago.  Ah, here's video of the segment I'm trying to describe. The poll guy is named David Chalian. I don't think the name has ever registered with me. Don't you think he looks like Jeffrey Toobin?

ADDED: "False Toobin" is patterned on "False Maria"...



... and, watching that, I wondered: Hmmm, what medical treatments did Hillary get back at Chelsea's apartment?

60 comments:

Brando said...

She was never that far ahead (at least this year) and seems to have a ceiling in the high 40s, while Trump's ceiling seems to be in the low 40s. The higher than usual percentages for third parties is keeping this thing close, and it'll remain close until the end.

The third party vote I think will collapse in half as a lot of NeverHillaries and NeverTrumps (particularly in swing states, of which there seem to be more this year than usual) swallow their disgust and peel off for the respective candidates to prevent their "greater horror" from getting elected. That's what's going to make this more like a tossup.

I predict the two-party vote margin will be less than 4 points.

Curious George said...

If Toobin went on a Twinkies binge...yep!

coupe said...

What the web news is writing is just the opposite of the pictures they post. They can't seem to get any synchronicité.

The pictures of Hillary at the memorial of the terrorists were not much different than autopsy pictures. Her hair was pulled tight like the brain was removed. She looked like she was dead, and the smile was affixed with sutures.

Then they said, she deserves the right to privacy, and that the Trump team should not say anything.

Sort of like Wilson, who was 7/8 dead, but not dead enough for the VP to take over.

Kaine needs to intervene. The Party needs to dump the dead woman, and promote the live one.

David Begley said...

Try False and Fat Toobin.

As I wrote in the preceding post, this is Big Mo. The bandwagon effect is coming into play.

I recall when Badger football was bad. What happened when they got good? More people showed up. Same with this election.

Doug said...

As Glenn Reynolds says, when you consider all journalists as democrat operatives with bylines, it all makes sense.

tim in vermont said...

They screwed back in whatever it was that fell out of her pant leg that morning.

Curious George said...

"coupe said...
Sort of like Wilson, who was 7/8 dead, but not dead enough for the VP to take over.

Kaine needs to intervene. The Party needs to dump the dead woman, and promote the live one."

Kaine would prefer not to be 8/8 dead.

AJ Lynch said...

I knew David Chalian's name sounded familiar. Below is a story from 2012:

"Yahoo News’ Washington bureau chief David Chalian was fired on Wednesday after a hot-mic incident during an online broadcast from the GOP convention in Tampa. Media watchdog NewsBusters was first to post audio of the incident. Politico broke the news of his firing. Chalian later apologized for his remarks (UPDATE BELOW).

During the broadcast, Chalian can be heard saying that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann were “not concerned at all” and “happy to have a party with black people drowning.” Chalian seemed to be referring to the simultaneous occurrence of the GOP convention convening in Tampa and Hurricane Isaac hammering its way across the gulf coast and through New Orleans.

A Yahoo spokesperson released a statement regarding the company’s decision to fire Chalian “effective immediately:”"

Paul Zrimsek said...

I don't see what's objectionable about the quoted phrases. Clinton is still ahead in the poll cited in the NYT article, as she also is in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The LAT poll you cited in your last post is an outlier.

tim in vermont said...

She looked like she was dead, and the smile was affixed with sutures.

More of a rictus than a smile.

Bob Ellison said...

Voters tend to pay attention more closely as the election approaches.

Voters also tend to vote for the more optimistic candidate, even if that optimism is a lie or misguided.

So Trump looks headed for the white house.

Bay Area Guy said...

Trump is surging, the NY Times is lamenting, and life will go on.

Folks should vote Trump just to see the utter emotional breakdown of all anchors on MSNBC and CNN, the day after a Hillary loss.

AprilApple said...

I think it is better to focus on state polls. Some out now that show Trump ahead in Ohio and Florida. That is good news for Trump.

I wonder if the internal polls at Camp Clinton Corruption show her downward slide? That might be enough to make Hillary sick. She is so desperate to hold on to power. She has spent so much money. It's hers, g*d*it! How can she be losing to this idiot. CNN is in 100% desperate spin mode - along with the rest of the media. How badly do ya have to suck to have the entire media industrial complex spinning in your corner, covering and pimping, and you still cannot pull away from Trump?

AprilApple said...

Folks should vote Trump just to see the utter emotional breakdown of all anchors on MSNBC and CNN, the day after a Hillary loss.


Agreed.

tim in vermont said...

Voters also tend to vote for the more optimistic candidate, even if that optimism is a lie or misguided.

Better 'deplorable' than 'detestable,' that's my motto.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

So Hillary is struggling in the polls, while Bill is back home toobin' bimbos.

AJ Lynch said...

Tim: I like that motto and I plan to "borrow" it from you. Hope you don't mind.

rehajm said...

Look at RCP or fivethirtyeight at the polls for the last week. Nationally and in key swing states like ohio. The LA Times in not an outlier...

Brando said...

"I wonder if the internal polls at Camp Clinton Corruption show her downward slide? That might be enough to make Hillary sick. She is so desperate to hold on to power. She has spent so much money. It's hers, g*d*it! How can she be losing to this idiot. CNN is in 100% desperate spin mode - along with the rest of the media. How badly do ya have to suck to have the entire media industrial complex spinning in your corner, covering and pimping, and you still cannot pull away from Trump?"

The Dems took a big risk crowning (coronating?) a candidate as weak and damaged as Hillary, and figured they got a gift from heaven when the GOP nominated Trump. What does that say about Hillary if she actually loses to him? That would have to sting.

Still, Trump would have to run a great string of states to pull this off--Florida is a must, but he'd also need either Ohio or Pennsyvlania, plus a number of other purples (without losing any of Mitt's "reds"). I think the swing states will track the national popular vote pretty closely.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

I think part of the appearance of big swings in the election is due to the way 538/Nate Silver is presenting things. He's giving probabilities of winning the election ( currently ~64% Clinton, ~36% Trump ) while most polling is presented as percentage of the vote total ( currently ~46.3% Clinton, ~43.6% Trump ). The nearly 30% lead in the probability of winning sounds yuge to people used to thinking in terms of a lead in vote percentage, when in fact it corresponds to less than 3% lead in the polls, something that is likely within the margin of error.

Another way to look at the 64%-36% Clinton lead is that, if you held 3 elections, each of which showed polling similar to what we are currently seeing, you should expect the leading candidates to win two of those, and the trailing candidate to win one.

Virgil Hilts said...

After HC collapsed, someone on Twitter showed a scene from Trump HQs with Trump bound and gagged ala Hannibal Lecter. After things calmed down he released a well thought out comment.
Robert and Rebekah Mercer seem to be doing a pretty good job controlling DT since the Khizr Khan incident (I thought Ann's explanation of what Trump must have been thinking was the best explanation to date, and I think it made DT realize that he needed to start relying on the advice of others if he wanted to win).

David said...

Trump is up in the LA Times poll, which has consistently ranked him higher. I think the rest of the polls justify the characterization of a tight race. In my book a tight race is one where either candidate could win, based on events and how the campaign plays out. That's what we have right now. With a volatile electorate and two volatile candidates, everything is up for grabs.

Brando said...

"After HC collapsed, someone on Twitter showed a scene from Trump HQs with Trump bound and gagged ala Hannibal Lecter. After things calmed down he released a well thought out comment."

I've noticed it too, and I think his more calm, controlling manner the past couple weeks explains his recent rise in the polls. If he keeps that up for the next month and a half, this can be a photo finish. If he goes back to "outrage a week for attention" then that's that.

AprilApple said...

Brando - Agreed. It's the state by state race that counts. Trump is showing signs of life, but probably still a battle to the end. The electorate is still evenly split.

Brando said...

"Brando - Agreed. It's the state by state race that counts. Trump is showing signs of life, but probably still a battle to the end. The electorate is still evenly split."

Yeah--no matter what, about half the country will simply not vote for a Republican and about half will simply not vote for a Democrat, and they read and digest news differently, so even while people marvel at "how can so many people back that con artist Trump?" or "how can so many people back that crook Hillary?" they're just not getting the other side. This always has been, and always will be close. The final push will decide it.

The two states I think worth watching on Election Night are Florida and Pennsylvania. If Trump can't win Florida, he's toast. If Hillary can't win PA, she's toast. If they each win those prospective states, it'll be an electoral nail biter.

The Cracker Emcee said...

" Folks should vote Trump just to see the utter emotional breakdown of all anchors on MSNBC and CNN, the day after a Hillary loss."

That would be sweet and truly hilarious in equal measures. Unfortunately, the factors of grim reality still favor Hillary. Except Hillary herself, which gives me a bit of hope. This October is going to be far more interesting than usual.

madAsHell said...

I'm just not seeing it. Here in Seattle, the "Feel the Bern" bumper stickers have not been replaced with Hillary stickers. I think the polls serve those who wish to maintain the narrative. Trump is going to win in a landslide.

Hagar said...

I don't see why I should believe this "surge for Trump" any more than last week when they were all sure he would be buried in landslide for Hillary!

Phil 3:14 said...

" Folks should vote Trump just to see the utter emotional breakdown of all anchors on MSNBC and CNN, the day after a Hillary loss."

Why not just turn off the TV instead. If you (collectively) want send a meaningful message then don't watch.

Sydney said...

How much of a margin does Trump need to make it impossible for the Democrats to cheat and steal the election?

Matthew Sablan said...

I've been following this election not nearly as closely as any other presidential election in my life, mainly because I'm of the belief: "We're screwed no matter what, we're just bargaining over the flavor of it."

I don't like either option, but I'm more and more being persuaded that disaster Trump is more preferable to disaster Clinton. The problem is that it is still, well, a disaster.

I think the polls and the reactions to them reflect that opinion.

Original Mike said...

How about "False Hillary"?

JAORE said...

I understand Hillary's Secret Service name is Norwegian Blue.

Does the body double have one too?

The BubFather said...

Nobody has mentioned this....but if Hillary has any sort of coughing fit at any of the debates, she's toast. After the antibiotic/she's fine/frequent/rare/flu/allergies crap, people will finally realize she's lying about her real health issues, which I'll guess are neurological. that finger squeeze thing at Ground Zero had nothing to do with fainting. and No way did she recover inside of an hour and a half after the tipsy thing to get out on the street to play with some random kid.

rehajm said...

.but if Hillary has any sort of coughing fit at any of the debates, she's toast.

There's mounting evidence she's already toast.

AlbertAnonymous said...

False Hillary is just redundant...

And repetitive...

And redundant...

Expat(ish) said...

I live in southwest Florida, which is pretty purple, especially once the snowbirds show up.

Well, they are starting to show up and I still haven't seen *one* HRC bumper sticker. I'm starting to see some Trump stickers, though most often on pickup trucks and what I, with fondness, call "beach beaters."

See a ton of Prius type cars with Bernie stickers on them. None with a Hilary sticker.

Just what I see.

_XC

n.n said...

The Left traditionally loves war and abortion.

H said...

I regard HRC as the most corrupt person to seek the presidency in my lifetime (and that includes NNixon and LBJ), but I think AA is too hard on the presentation of polls. The (national) real clear politics average of polls was a (recent) peak in early august, with HRC having a 7.9% lead. This isn't quite landslide, but pretty comfortable lead territory (Obama won 53% of pop vote and McCain 46% -- so better than that). Today's RCP average is at 1.8 lead for HRC. I think it's fair to call that "tightened" or too close to call; but it's not DJT by 8 points. It's still a long way from that.

readering said...

This Althouse post is too soon. People here hate Hillary, but how many voted for Obama even once? Yup.

To believe a rush to Trump you have to believe lots of folks who voted Obama twice are now going for Trump in the face of Obama's endorsement.
Whereas plausible to think some who voted McCain-Romney will switch to Clinton after what both men have said about Trump.

coupe said...

Huma Weiner gave her a back rub, and maybe some "release" when she got to the daughters place. At least a bottle of prune juice.

eric said...

Blogger Paul Zrimsek said...
I don't see what's objectionable about the quoted phrases. Clinton is still ahead in the poll cited in the NYT article, as she also is in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.


There is something strange going on over at RCP. They are the go to site for polls and yet, they are monkeying around with the average, why?

Take the Q poll that came our yesterday. It has Hillary up by +5. The previous Q poll had Hillary up by +8 according to RCP. This is 3 points movement toward Trump, right?

Wrong.

The Q poll posted yesterday is the results of a 4 way race. The previous Q poll is head to head. It's not an apples to apples comparison. The previous 4 way race Q poll had Hillary up +10. That's a +5 move in Trump's favor. The current Q poll head to head has Hillary up by +2. The previous Q poll had her at +8. That's a 6 point move toward Trump. Either way, it's a five or six point move toward Trump but the impression you get from RCP is only +3 toward Trump. Because they changed it from head to head polling to 4 way race.

I call BS.

Paul Zrimsek said...

I'm not seeing it, eric. When I click through to the Q'pac press release they're saying they did both a 2-way and a 4-way poll, with 48-43 being the 2-way result (the 4-way is 41-39-13-4). Unless I'm missing something, RCP is including both results, and in the correct places.

wildswan said...

Tapper says "What about the trajectory" which is a downward slide by Hillary and False Toobin says: "At this point it is a toss up." That doesn't discuss trajectory. If you do cross-section analysis, Hillary is ahead; if you do longitudinal or trajectory analysis, she is headed downward. I think these polls are from before Hillary's Deplorable Weekend, I think polls are several days behind. If so, the slide will accelerate. The "tightening race" will, as pointed out, tighten the faces on Main Slime Media till by Election Night, (Oh may it be) they'll look botoxed, bothered and bewildered. Oh, it may be pass the popcorn night yet for the right.

wildswan said...

I like the idea of Hillary being duplicated but why only the one clone? Why the limitation to one as if one were real and two were not - that's clonism thinking. And see, if there were more Hillary's she could extort, oh sorry, fund raise, in 57 states at once. She isn't real any more so being a clone shouldn't present a problem to anyone. If it does, that just more clonism - clone them and be done with it.

wildswan said...

And if one clone got pneumonia or the flu, you just throw it in a big black car and take it to the dump. There's only one birth certificate and so can be only one death certificate. So that wouldn't be murder but just population control AND recycling which is good.

Bay Area Guy said...

Hillary and her buddies at Goldman Sachs have outspent Trump 5-1. More so, Hillary, Bill, Obama, Michelle, and Biden have been hammering Trump for months. More so, Bush I, Bush 2, Dole, Jeb, Romney and McCain have either been hostile to Trump, silent on Trump, or, in the case of McCain, have given only a lukewarm endorsement.

And, yet, after all this, Hillary is ahead by only 1 in the RCP average-- less than 2 months to the election.

What does that tell you?

notme said...

Chalian was fired by Yahoo for making atrocious statements about Romney being a racist. So naturally was hired by CNN to run their political operation

wildswan said...

And Bill will be recycled also if he's not careful. That's quite an error, not knowing that his wife has pneumonia, not the flu. And imagine denouncing the public for their concern about Hillary's health when he himself was not concerned enough to know that she had pneumonia, not the flu. Anyone is concerned when they hear that anyone for whom they have the slightest feeling has pneumonia but Bill doesn't even care enough to know what is going on with Hillary when it's a serious health issue. He'll end up like Anthony Wiener, confined to an apartment looking after a baby. Not a "babe", Bill, I didn't say "babe", I said "baby".

Bruce Hayden said...

What Wildswan is calling trajectory, I was calling nag momentum. Crooked Hillary's bump after her convention always felt a bit fake. What was there that would caused all that excitement? Speeches were no better, and Clinton spawn came across as far weaker than Trump spawn. If the polls since then weren't biased a bit, the next most logical explanation, in my mind, was that it was because the MSM covered the Dem convention mor extensively, and didn't cut away from some of the best speakers to their talking heads, as they did for the Republicans. It was almost like magic - after Trump controlling the messaging through the first couple days of the Dem convention, and after mediocre speeches from the main players, esp Herself, all of a sudden she rockets out to a commanding, if not insurmountable lead in the polls. Made no sense.

The problem though is what has she done since then to counter the daily barrage by the Trump campaign? She essentially took the month of August off to rest up for the final stretch of campaigning, then called a bunch of hard working Americans "Deplorable", followed by collapsing and spazzing out at the 9/11 15th anniversary event, and then stonewalled and lied about it. Now, another week or so of vacation, to again rest up, and we have maybe 6 or 7 weeks left. Where is she going to get her momentum back? At the debates? She is not nearly as fast on her feet as Trump is, and I don't see a Candi Crawley moment helping here. I think more likely, it would hurt her. Maybe she can play the poor woman being intimidated by the cruel man, as she did with Lazio. But as long as Trump keeps his cool, and on message (mostly), where is she going to break his momentum? Maybe she can run out the clock, which is what I suspect their game plan was all along. But, as more and more key states flip, will she be able to keep her calm? I doubt it, but we shall see.

glenn said...

I speak Clinton so I can ask what the Doctors report meant when it said "Hillary didn't have any new health conditions except dehydration and pneumonia" What we're the existing ones?.

CStanley said...

A bit off topic, but I noticed this morning that the doctor's report stated that Hillary had been diagnosed with a non-contagious bacterial pneumonia based on a CT scan showing signs in her right middle lung lobe. I'm a veterinarian, not a physician, but that sure sounds like aspiration pneumonia to me and I'm wondering if any physicians who read here might comment.

The significance is that aspiration pneumonia would be suggestive of Parkinson's or another neurological disorder, because while it's not impossible it is uncommon for most people to get this type of pneumonia.

JAORE said...

" I don't see a Candi Crawley moment helping here." (the debates)

I can see a Candy (is dandy) attempt. I don't see Trump letting it pass unnoted as did Mittons.

tim in vermont said...

To believe a rush to Trump you have to believe lots of folks who voted Obama twice are now going for Trump in the face of Obama's endorsement.
Whereas plausible to think some who voted McCain-Romney will switch to Clinton after what both men have said about Trump.


Just because readering has sold out his values and gone all in for the corrupt war-monger does not mean that there are not significant numbers of Americans who will not be ordered around like so many toy soldiers by the Democratic machine.

gerry said...

It had a scorned beginning - but the gifted recognized it - and the preference cascade has begun...

SukieTawdry said...

I try to ignore polls to the extent possible. It's fun, though, to speculate about the internal polls. I think the Democrats' internals aren't looking so hot at the moment.

Hmmm, what medical treatments did Hillary get back at Chelsea's apartment?

Dr. Feelgood made a discreet visit by way of the service elevator.

Grant said...

Metropolis! What a magnificent film, especially the version with the recently found footage and the original score. Buy it from Althouse Amazon!

Vile Pliskin said...

Ann wonders what medical treatment Hillary received at Chelsea's apartment. Why? The official (notonvideobutwhywouldhercampaignlie) story is she almost immediately recovered in the van due to air conditioning and some water, then ran around the apartment chasing grandchildren. Then!: Went outside to tell media she was doing great. Then said she had pneumonia since Friday and was going to rest because she over powered through.

She needed no medical treatment, per the the official story, other than van AC and water. (But making her drink water is hard but whatever)

Earnest Prole said...

(Sigh) because it’s no longer 1996. We can easily peruse multiple state-by-state polls, which show the race as Tapper characterizes it.

Rusty said...


"She needed no medical treatment, per the the official story, other than van AC and water. (But making her drink water is hard but whatever)"

They had to tell her it was gin.