July 19, 2016

New from Nate Silver: "Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004."

"I’ve... detected a lot of consternation among Clinton voters: Why isn’t her position safer? There’s really about a 35 or 40 percent chance that Trump will become president?"
Based on the polls, we think the model is setting those odds about right. The race is a long way from being a toss-up, but a 3 or 4 percentage point lead heading into the conventions isn’t all that reliable, either. While Obama won twice with pre-convention leads of about that margin, John Kerry went into his convention with a lead of about 3 percentage points in 2004, but lost to George W. Bush. And in 2000, Bush had about a 4-point lead on the eve of the conventions, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. (Bush won the Electoral College, of course.)

188 comments:

Alex said...

The GOP just shredded themselves. They are finished with everyone except geezers.

eric said...

Keep hope alive HillaryBillies.

Right Shiloh?

Brando said...

Silver is just stating the obvious--the lead is a small one and if this follows recent patterns it'll be a close race--all the more reason to get every advantage you can.

Neither candidate seems to crack 50% in polls, and the third party candidates are combining for about 10% and sometimes more. I expect a nail biter.

Electoral vote wise, watch FL--if he GOP can't win that state, they're out.

mockturtle said...

I was watching some news footage of French people booing Hollande as he participated in a memorial service for the victims of Nice. I predict France will go the way of Brexit and all of Europe will start shifting to the Right in response to failed immigration policies. A victory for Hillary would be a failure on the part of the US to recognize this.

Brando said...

Remember also what ruined Kerry--the GOP remained focused, putting its whole campaign into the "fight terror" and "win the war" footing with its convention, commercials and surrogates. Kerry flopped because he was trying to be the anti-war candidate, but between supporting the war to begin with (and making a feeble "I'd have fought it better" argument) and resurrecting the Vietnam wounds, the image of him as an opportunistic creep pulled him down. Plus, he came across as an arrogant jerk while Bush at least seemed nice.

Brando said...

"I was watching some news footage of French people booing Hollande as he participated in a memorial service for the victims of Nice. I predict France will go the way of Brexit and all of Europe will start shifting to the Right in response to failed immigration policies. A victory for Hillary would be a failure on the part of the US to recognize this."

I wouldn't read too much of a message in a Hillary (or Trump) victory. If Hillary wins, it's because she made the campaign about Trump, and the voters rejected him. Same goes the other way.

That's partly how Bush beat Kerry--if the referendum was on Bush and the Iraq War, he may well have lost--but voters had to approve of Kerry who was not an acceptable alternative.

YoungHegelian said...

The pundits' predictions (including Silver's by his own admission) for Trump in the Republican primaries were so abysmal that I see no reason to trust any of them now. Voters just seem to come out of the woodwork when The Donald is involved.

Throw in the fact that a lot of voters are unhappy with both candidates & will probably go third party or stay home, & we've just all gotta admit: folks, we are in Terra Incognita here.

eric said...

Commentary I'd like to see.

At this point in 2008 Obama average 46.3
At this point in 2008, McCain average 41.8

At this point in 2012, Obama average 47.2
At this point in 2012, Romney average 44.2

Right now, Hillary average is 43.8
Right now, Trump average is 41.1

traditionalguy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
traditionalguy said...

Bush was re-elected as a war time President. That got him a certain loyalty. And then a USMC vet sgt named Gov. Zell Miller gave the Convention speech of all speeches on Scots-Irish war time loyalty and compared that to the fake John Kerry of Swift Boat fame. And then he went after Chris Matthews.

shiloh said...

Bush43 was a war-time incumbent. A war-time incumbent has never lost re-election.

Plus Kerry was a train wreck.

>

Whereas I will agree Hillary is a train wreck as well ...

but, but, but Trump is a much bigger train wreck!

>

Interesting ***if*** Kerry had won OH he would have won, but Bush43 was quite the train wreck himself, eh.

So many train wrecks, so little time.

>

Made a post earlier today re: Rudy's a noun, verb and 9/11.

9/11

>

Indeed Eric, Keep hope alive as 2004 is nothing like 2016 ie Reps have lost the fear factor, the competency factor ie (8) years of Cheney/Bush, the Gay marriage hate issue which Rove put on the ballot in (8) mostly swing states which helped Bush win Ohio.

Repeating, if the economy doesn't tank and Obama still has a good job approval rating, Hillary wins.

That's enough for now as I yield back the balance of my time.

mccullough said...

Hillary and Trump are well known by the electorate. Events will determine this election.

Unknown said...

By the time the election is here Trump will be finished off. He is floundering in the general, he's no longer dealing with just right wing disaffected white men. The gross incompetance will only serve to turn off even more undecideds.

bagoh20 said...

"Bush won the Electoral College, of course."

Watch out! Them's fightin' words.

The Drill SGT said...

The Law and Order issue is huge. It impacts both white and black turnout greatly.

If Hill gets a Black turnout like Obama, she wins, if she gets one like Kerry, she loses

plus, I suspect there are some Hispanic citizens, a few blacks, and some white union voters that talk about voting for Hill, who will pull the lever for Donald.

Nonapod said...

If events are the determining factor in this election, then Trump has a better chance than polls may suggest. We've had several tragic events over the past 12 months, many of which could be viewed as preventable (whether or not specific events actually could indeed be reasonably preventable is immaterial, it's perception that counts). Obviously tragedies that are perceived as preventable will hurt incumbent parties. Given the crazy year we've had so far and the overall national mood, I fully expect that there will be even more tragic events in the next few months. Add to that the ongoing economic uncertainty that may lead to a possible economic downturn, I'd put Trump's chances at closer to dead even, even taking into account Obama's against-all-odds mind bendingly high approval rating.

Ron Snyder said...

Nate, STFU. You, and all other pollsters blew it this year. You are so desperate to try and get your name back up in the headlines it is embarrassing. Just stick with sports.

rhhardin said...

Kasich says that "the party that can annunciate, annunciate, the hopes and dreams of all the people..."

Stressing the word, sound byte just now.

n.n said...

Chaos precludes forecasts outside the narrow limits of the scientific domain. The accuracy of his prophecies will converge to one as we approach the event.

shiloh said...

"annunciate"

Since Kasich was born in PA maybe Hillary can get him to appear in Philadelphia next week.

A bridge too far?

bagoh20 said...

As much as I hate the idea of President Hillary, I don't see her opportunity for disaster to be as likely as Trump's. She will play it safe now. All of her negatives, which are truly terrible, are priced in, accepted, fully digested, and from here on, amount to mild indigestion among the electorate. As with British cuisine, I just don't get it, but that's how it is. Trump, on the other hand, is likely to give us food poisoning at some point before the election. I don't know what it will be, and that's my point - we just don't know what can happen with him, but it being bad has high possibility. I would bet against a President Trump at this point. I also think he has the highest potential to turn it in his favor, I just don't expect him to. For a billionaire, he is lifelong underachiever. I am honestly scared to death of both of them, and what they might do to my country. In the case of Hillary, make that WILL do, without a doubt.

Jim Howard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
shiloh said...

Whatever Nate predicts a week before the election, etch it in gold.

Brexit and Trump primary voters acted irrationally ie against their better interests, plus the polls were wrong.

Eric, keep hope alive as Nate could predict 50/50. btw, undecideds swinging heavily to the challenger rather than the incumbent is a myth. And Hillary is basically, for all intents and purposes, the incumbent.

Jim Howard said...

As Scott Adams frequently points out in his blog, in much of the country coming out as Trump supporter risks your job and your life.

It's always safe to be an open Democrat. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans are not vindictive and violent. Plus, the percentage of Republicans working at real jobs to consume most of their day is much higher than that of Democrats.

I strongly suspect that to the extent that polls are reliable at all these days, that they are under counting Trump and over counting Hillary.

Rick said...

Kerry flopped because he was trying to be the anti-war candidate, but between supporting the war to begin with (and making a feeble "I'd have fought it better" argument) and resurrecting the Vietnam wounds, the image of him as an opportunistic creep pulled him down. Plus, he came across as an arrogant jerk while Bush at least seemed nice.

Bush stopped bleeding voters when Kerry gay-baited Cheney.

narciso said...

there's been another known wolf, like the one on the train,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/man-stabs-french-woman-and-her-three-daughters-for-being-scantil/

Achilles said...

It is interesting watching people "interpret" polls of likely voters with 5-15% more democrats than republicans. Nobody is applying past historical events. The last time a person from the same party as a 2 term president won is GHWB. The economy was infinitely better in 88 than it is now. And given the primary turnout betting on anything other than even Dem-Rep representation in the polls is silly. The anti-DC wave is the only clear pattern you can bank on.

Panic is already setting in among the parasite class.

Brando said...

"I strongly suspect that to the extent that polls are reliable at all these days, that they are under counting Trump and over counting Hillary."

I wouldn't bet a lot on that--the polls for Trump have actually been pretty accurate this year, and in fact often overestimated him in the primaries. I think the bigger issue to look for is that both candidates combine for well under 100% so there's still a large portion not willing to (at this time) commit to either.

"Bush stopped bleeding voters when Kerry gay-baited Cheney."

You mean Edwards? That was a dumb move by him. But I think the bigger factor was simply that Kerry was a muddled flip flopper, and a bit of a jerk, which gave Bush the edge. It didn't hurt that the anti-war Left had lost its mind that year.

Terry said...

Blogger Brando said...
. . .
It didn't hurt that the anti-war Left had lost its mind that year.

7/19/16, 2:30 PM

The anti-war press as well. At the time he was running for Veep, and his wife was dying from breast cancer, John Edwards was carrying on an affair with a ditzy blonde, and not trying particularly hard to hide it.
The story was broken by the Enquirer.

Original Mike said...

Hey, Kerry could still become President! Hills picks him as VP and then, who knows....

Achilles said...

Brando said...

"I wouldn't bet a lot on that--the polls for Trump have actually been pretty accurate this year, and in fact often overestimated him in the primaries. I think the bigger issue to look for is that both candidates combine for well under 100% so there's still a large portion not willing to (at this time) commit to either."

The issue with the polls is Trump finished. Months before the primary he would be behind or in a dead heat. Then he won solidly. He has always improved as the actual election approached. Part of this is the media trying to push the electorate with bogus polls but another part is Trump is able to connect with voters.

It will be the same this time. Hillary is the worst nominee of a major party ever in terms of talent and skill. She is fat, mentally lazy, and her only political ability is dis-ingenuousness. Trump has already framed the election which is something no other Republican has done. Besides it is clear that ISIS and BLM have clearly snapped their leashes and thinking we wont be having more attacks and cop killings before november is silly.

Rick said...

I did always find it strange Kerry hated his war service so much he compared US forces to Genghis Khan but apparently also believed that service qualified him for President. But then they never do make much sense.

You mean Edwards?

No Kerry did it directly (in addition to Edwards). Kerry was asked a question about gays and gratuitously brought up Cheney's daughter. Since this was the campaigns second such effort (and this one by the candidate rather than the veep candidate) it came off as a campaign theme.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/6245927/ns/politics/t/cheneys-blast-kerrys-remarks-daughter/#.V46BCfkrLcs

Kerry's other positions hurt him but were well known even as the polls continued to show the slow drip from Bush to Kerry. The slide ended only in the last couple of weeks right after Kerry's gay baiting comment.

Original Mike said...

For that matter, Gore could still become President.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Hillary's real problem is that she's a criminally corrupt, incompetent, pathological liar. Trump or not, most voters consider her unfit for office.

Unknown said...

Achilles, Hillary is no fatter or lazier than your wife.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bobby said...

traditionalguy,

"And then a USMC vet sgt named Gov. Zell Miller gave the Convention speech of all speeches on Scots-Irish war time loyalty and compared that to the fake John Kerry of Swift Boat fame. And then he went after Chris Matthews."

According to the transcript of Zell Miller's convention speech, he never mentioned Scots, Irish, or Scots-Irish. But it's fascinating that you nonetheless somehow heard it.

Unknown said...

Most voters consider Trump to be a fraudulent loser, scam artist, incompetant and unfit to govern. He's in the general election now, it won't be just sycophants voting this time.

dreams said...

Hillary is the most experienced, she is very experienced at failure. If anyone wants to list her accomplishments or even just one accomplishment other than getting herself elected then have have at it. And flying around the world over and over again isn't an accomplishment, its just an activity.

gadfly said...

@Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
Hillary's real problem is that she's a criminally corrupt, incompetent, pathological liar. Trump or not, most voters consider her unfit for office.


Let me fix that statement for you:

Trump's real problem is that he's a criminally corrupt, incompetent, pathological liar. Clinton or not, most voters consider him unfit for office.

Your welcome!

Birkel said...

To be fair, Hillary has not shown herself to be lazy. She accepts bribes at nearly any hour of any day. Further, she will castigate other women - especially those abused by her husband - as bimbo eruptions, at any time.

She is overweight. And a likely alcoholic.

Brando said...

"The anti-war press as well. At the time he was running for Veep, and his wife was dying from breast cancer, John Edwards was carrying on an affair with a ditzy blonde, and not trying particularly hard to hide it."

Was that in the 2004 campaign or the 2008? In any event, yeah the anti-war press classically overplayed their hand. The war was becoming less popular but they went so overboard that even most people who were troubled by the war still trusted Bush to fix it more than his replacement.

"The issue with the polls is Trump finished. Months before the primary he would be behind or in a dead heat. Then he won solidly. He has always improved as the actual election approached. Part of this is the media trying to push the electorate with bogus polls but another part is Trump is able to connect with voters."

I think the polls accurately covered Trump's rise--remember even in the first debate (and every subsequent debate) he was in the middle spot, which they give to whoever leads the polls. Except for the first few weeks, he never lagged in the national polls, and as is usually the case the state by state polls tend to align with the national ones.

The polls now show it close, with enough "none of the above" voters, so no one has it in the bag yet.

"No Kerry did it directly (in addition to Edwards). Kerry was asked a question about gays and gratuitously brought up Cheney's daughter. Since this was the campaigns second such effort (and this one by the candidate rather than the veep candidate) it came off as a campaign theme."

That's right--I'd forgotten that, but it was gratuitous (at least Edwards had Cheney sitting across from him so it seemed relevant). Made him look like a jerk.

"I did always find it strange Kerry hated his war service so much he compared US forces to Genghis Khan but apparently also believed that service qualified him for President. But then they never do make much sense."

Makes perfect sense--the only consistency is him wanting to do what he thought was popular and useful to him at the time. And enough voters saw through it.

Birkel said...

"Most voters consider Trump to be a fraudulent loser, scam artist, incompetant (sic) and unfit to govern."

Always check your spelling when you call other people incompetent.

M Jordan said...

Nate Silver tried hard to make 538 non-partisan. He and his staff are quite careful not to become Slate or HuffPo. They really believe in data and data knows no bias (contrary to Paul Krugman's colorful statement that truth has liberal bias). That said, I've noticed his readership and staff and now Nate himself becoming more noticeably a leftie site. It's sad because I really thought he could remain a little above the fray.

Remember Google's famous maxim: "Don't be evil"? Well, they're evil. At least they've bitten from the forbidden tree. This upcoming generation thought they were the objective ones, the non-partisan hacks, the seekers of truth, bla, bla, bla, but in the end we're all subjective creatures, quite tribal in nature.

Trump will win, despite the melodrama. I'm not quite on the Scott Adams' train thinking a lot of Trump's melodrama is 3-D chess, but I do believe there is something going on in our culture that will push Trump over the finish line.

Unknown said...

Well, I'm not running for President. Better a spelling error than not knowing that there is no Article XII or what the Nuclear Triad was.

Achilles said...

Unknown said...

"Achilles, Hillary is no fatter or lazier than your wife."

This makes me smile. My wife is 33 weeks pregnant, her second, and still compares favorably to Hillary. She is still working 5 days a week as an RN in home health.

Hillary is an alcoholic and a stroke victim. These are her 2 best qualities.

Her supporters are just disgusting, wretched, and stupid human beings. You cannot have a soul and support Hillary Clinton.

Unknown said...

Birkel, Hillary is no more an alcoholic than you are.

Drago said...

Unknown: "Most voters consider Trump to be a fraudulent loser, scam artist, incompetant and unfit to govern."

That must be why the left is so confident that they pay an army of robots to post on blogsites and fake grassroots movements.

Because they are so far ahead.

#leftylogic

Unknown said...

Achilles, Hillary is no more an alcoholic than you are.

Unknown said...

An army? Of robots? LOL.

Achilles said...

Unknown said...

"Well, I'm not running for President. Better a spelling error than not knowing that there is no Article XII or what the Nuclear Triad was."

Or 57 states. Or how many letters are in the word JOBS. My favorite is this gem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2-KDETdxeE

Obama is not very smart.

The Cracker Unknown said...

Cracker, Hillary is no more an alcoholic than you are.

Unknown said...

Achilles, why is your poor pregnant wife working so may days a week? Don't you have a job?

Drago said...

Unknown: "Birkel, Hillary is no more an alcoholic than you are."

And if you like your health care you can keep your health care. Period.

Plus, Hillary is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being Unknown has ever known in his/her life.

Unknown said...

Cracker, ok maybe Hillary is as much an alcoholic as you are.

dreams said...

"Most voters consider Trump to be a fraudulent loser, scam artist, incompetant and unfit to govern. He's in the general election now, it won't be just sycophants voting this time."

Yeah, now its time for all those dead Democrats to rise up and vote one more time because crooked Hillary is counting on them too. Also the illegal aliens and not to forget the felons who can vote for Crooked Hillary, either legally or otherwise. The crooked Dems will go to the polls and vote but for the ignorant Dems and the ignorant millennials, demagoguery will have to be employed. Crooked Dem poll workers will be diligent so not to worry about them.

Unknown said...

Will the real alcoholic please stand up?

eric said...

Hillary also has her cough back.

I wonder how much cough medicine she takes? It's only going to get worse on her too, as the stresses of a campaign continue to wear on her.

Pls print

Achilles said...

M Jordan said...

"Nate Silver tried hard to make 538 non-partisan. He and his staff are quite careful not to become Slate or HuffPo. They really believe in data and data knows no bias (contrary to Paul Krugman's colorful statement that truth has liberal bias). That said, I've noticed his readership and staff and now Nate himself becoming more noticeably a leftie site. It's sad because I really thought he could remain a little above the fray."

The problem isn't ideological, it is class. Nate Silver is fed and supported by political junkies and DC insiders. IOW the wealthy elite. He is going to portray those that feed him well. Wealthy people have donated to both sides and just kept the trough they feed from full.

This year though they failed to maintain control of the republican party. The proles have taken over and us barbarians are at the DC gates. Hillary and the democrats aren't the only people that will lose when Trump wins. All of the other little feeders like Nate Silver will have their rice bowl knocked over too.

The Cracker Unknown said...

I still giggle at the phrase "Kerry-Edwards". Comedic gold.

The Cracker Unknown said...

"Cracker, ok maybe Hillary is as much an alcoholic as you are."

Perhaps, and she's waaay fatter.

Drago said...

Is it as bad as Obama not knowing what languages are being spoken in active US war zones?

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/obama-gaffes-on.html

Poor obambi. No one told him that Afghanis don't speak the same language as Iraqis.

Maybe obambi just thinks all those foreigners speak Austrian.

The Cracker Unknown said...

Damn, Homes. She's a moose.

Unknown said...

Nah, I doubt she's fatter than you Cracker, not with all that deep fried food you crackers eat.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

He's in the general election now, it won't be just sycophants voting this time.

Same for Hillary.

Achilles said...

Unknown said...

"Achilles, why is your poor pregnant wife working so may days a week? Don't you have a job?"

Self employed. Our focus is on saving up enough money to get her 6 months off. We have to pay for it out here in the private sector though. It is clear you don't talk to any actual people.

You are new here obviously. Ad hominems are a poor route to take here. They just make you look stupid.

Original Mike said...

"Achilles, why is your poor pregnant wife working so may days a week? Don't you have a job?"

Wow...

The Cracker Unknown said...

"Nah, I doubt she's fatter than you Cracker, not with all that deep fried food you crackers eat."

Shoo, I'm 6'1" and I bet Hillary has a good 10lbs. on me. All that vodka makes you puffy.

n.n said...

Achilles:

Hillary and the democrats aren't the only people that will lose...

Hence the bipartisan phobia that was not demonstrated with Obama. They are concerned that Trump will follow through on his promise to end redistributive change schemes, foreign and domestic anti-native policies, class diversity mongering, and progressive confusion indoctrination. Both the Democrat and Republican establishments fear the People reclaiming their rights under the constitution and Posterity recovering the right to life under equal protection (and universal human rights).

Unknown said...

Achilles I suggest you take your own advice about ad hominems, or you make yourself appear stupid and hypocritical.

M Jordan said...

@Achilles: "The problem isn't ideological, it is class. ... All of the other little feeders like Nate Silver will have their rice bowl knocked over too."

Now that is a perceptive comment. You would think at least one so-called pundit could have made it. But of course, they can't because they're the "little feeders."

The Cracker Unknown said...

She's like freakin' Grover Cleveland or something...William Howard Taft size, I tell you what...Hopefully they still have his special bathtub in some White House storeroom.

Unknown said...

Kind of like all that corn liquor you crackers drink.

Well I used to wonder like all kids what made this to that
Now I'd seen what happened to my pa when he take a drink from a jug
Yeah he'd start with a smile and then after awhile he'd be out on the floor like rug
Corn liquor (corn liquor) corn liquor (corn liquor) what makes you do what you do
Well they feel no pain when you touch their brain corn liquor they love you
[ banjo ]
Well now one day in the afternoon my folks were away for awhile
Yeah I got the jug down from the shelf to see what made 'em smile
Now I slowly sip in the nearly flip that one drink was enough
For the life of me I just can't see why they love that awful stuff
Corn liquor (corn liquor)...
[ fiddle ]
Well as I grew older I thought about that first sip that I had
Yeah I really burned and soon I learned it wasn't all that bad
Now to ease the pressures of this world here's the way I've got it figured
Well the thing to do for me and you is drink lotsa good corn liquor
Corn liquor (corn liquor)...
Yeah I feel no pain when you touch my brain corn liquor I love you

Buck Owens - Corn Liquor

M Jordan said...

Unknown,

One time a man peed in the swimming pool. Were you that man?

Unknown said...

No, it was Cracker.

Unknown said...

Or maybe Achilles. Nah, it was Birkel.

The Cracker Unknown said...

Roll out the barrel, we'll have a barrel of fun
Roll out the barrel, we've got the blues on the run
Zing boom tararrel, ring out a song of good cheer
Now's the time to roll the barrel, for the gang's all here

-Hillary Clinton DNC walk-out song

Drago said...

Corn liquor is certainly no substitute for purple drank, the preferred beverage of many Obama voters.

bbkingfish said...

It will be interesting to see movement in the polls the first week of August, after the conventions.

Fernandinande said...

gadfly said...
Your welcome!


My welcome!

Birkel said...
"... incompetant (sic) ..."
Always check your spelling when you call other people incompetent.


Always put "sic" in square brackets when you tell other people to check their spelling.

The Cracker Unknown said...

Gonna need a handtruck to see movement in Hillary...

Drago said...

Hillary's calves could feed an African village for a week.

It takes a Hillary calve!

It's for the children!

Unknown said...

Trump outweighs Hillary by about a hundred pounds.

Unknown said...

And his makeup sucks.

Unknown said...

Trump"s jowls could injure a person standing next to him if he turned his head too quickly.

The Cracker Unknown said...

Unknown,

You're not very good at this, are you? You were hired to talk up Hillary or denigrate Trump, and instead you get mired in an ad hominem slinging match about exactly how fat and how drunk Hillary is. Try harder.

Achilles said...

Unknown said...

"Achilles I suggest you take your own advice about ad hominems, or you make yourself appear stupid and hypocritical."

I am making generalizations, not ad hominems. This is a key distinction.

An adhom would be you are stupid, soulless or both.

A generalization would be In general Hillary supporters are stupid, soulless, or both.

If I was to attack you personally I would say that being unable to make this distinction makes you stupid. Instead I generally prefer to say that because you were unable to make this distinction it seems like you are stupid. Sometimes though when it becomes obvious someone is stupid I prefer typing less. You are on that tack right now.

Unknown said...

Trump's small hands don't handicap him in the least.

I'm on my lunch break.

Bay Area Guy said...

The most salient factor is this:

It's very hard for a party to win 3 consecutive Prez terms. By year 9, the swing voters in the middle get sick of the party in power, and vote against it.

Since 1952, that's exactly what happened every single time, but once (Bush in '88). Reagan had long coattails, I reckon.

Does Obama?

traditionalguy said...

Bobby...Sorry to insert my adjectives about Zell Miller's speech into a description of the speech. But Scots-Irish wartime loyalty was the motivation for every damn word in Zell's speech.

Miller is a lifetime Democrat from the Appalachian Mountain area close to the Tennessee border. He had a hard fight getting ahead politically in Georgia which has only about a 20% Scots-Irish Mountain culture. But the man had a large dose of Andy Jackson's resolve inside him and he made it to Lt Governor and finally to the Governor's office. A close friend of mine worked for the man as a State Department Head. He ran things mountain honest. His word was his bond. He wasa rare straight arrow who demanded good government. Which was as far from a Talmadege governing style as it gets.

But Zell sacrificed it all when he switched parties because a War time Commander in Chief needed him. That is Scots-Irish. Don't go to a war without one.

Unknown said...

Achilliles, the fact that you are one of the most virulent Trump sycophants here makes you stupid and soulless in my estimation.

Jon Ericson said...

Unknown needs a new tactic.

George111, Henry1944, Franciscan, UncleBenny, luigi, Sami, BenjaminFranklin, John, Eric, FranklinRoos, FranDresher , EmilL, SandyColdfax, Hankenny, Nikki, Mark, Pete, Erika, Georgiana, Fanniefarmer and Julio attacks were laughed off.

But I thank it for using just one un-name. Makes for more pleasant reading, and easier skipping.

Thanks, Pedro!

Unknown said...

Troll Time with Jonny is here again. It's been fun Cracker, thanks for the chuckles.

My shift is over.

Unknown said...

Oh and one last thing. Jonny, the DNC cut back on the paid commenters because it's very apparent that Trump has already lost, but I'll drop in from time to time to rub salt into your wounds. 😆

The Cracker Unknown said...

Y'all come back now, hea'?

Achilles said...

Unknown said...

"Achilliles, the fact that you are one of the most virulent Trump sycophants here makes you stupid and soulless in my estimation."

You should be embarrassed for yourself.

The unknown tag needs to be disabled. It is going to be hard to give any "unknowns" the benefit of the doubt with someone this stupid posting.

Unknown said...

Ban all Unknowns! Bye Cracker, you're a sweet one.

Birkel said...

Fernandinande:

Thank you for the correction of my bracket usage, which you confused with a correction about spelling.

I'm sure that was just a mistake on your part, as spelling and bracket usage are not equivalent things.

Jon Ericson said...

For some reason, the trolls don't like me. :-(

Birkel said...

I enjoy how the Democrats worry about rubbing salt into the wounds of their perceived political enemies without one care about the negative effects their political victories have on the lives of Americans.

The principle that is followed is Will to Power.

And it is a power wielded not by the cheerleaders, but by the privileged elite. And those privileged elite have made it obvious that their every action is for their own personal wealth, power and prestige. It is obvious in the decaying cities that have been Company Towns for a hundred years. It is obvious in California where the state government is 127 billion dollars in debt. It is obvious in Washington, D.C. where Obama has double the federal debt in two terms.

And yet the cheerleaders attend the pep rallies with all the zeal, as ever.

Unknown said...

Any opinion whether the various rape allegations against therealdonaldtrum could gurgle up to the top of the news?

Terry said...

Blogger Unknown said...
Any opinion whether the various rape allegations against therealdonaldtrum could gurgle up to the top of the news?

7/19/16, 4:20 PM

Is "thedonaldtantrum" a new synonym for Bill Clinton?
Dems know what happens when you drag a hundred dollar bill through a trailer park. If needed, James Carville can remind them.

Unknown said...

excuse me, therealdonaldtrump is an email name, I believe.

Jon Ericson said...

Twitter handle, I believe.

Jon Ericson said...

You see there are unknown unknowns (the troll) and there are known unknowns (the most recent poster).
Or do I have that backwards?
Think deeply about that.

Terry said...

I long to see a commercial with Hillary begging American voters to not allow a rapist in the White House.

Unknown said...

I am not a troll. I do not get into vicious exchanges. But after reading about the stuff that went on last night ... not so much the Melania nonsense as the use of a grieving mother, Mrs. Smith, to make a preposterous, individual attack, I think this campaign will only get lower from here. So I was wondering about the rape suit supposedly filed a few weeks ago. As I already think the Trump supporters have gone far beyond, I suppose I expect Clinton supporters will be willing to go as far. After all, civilization is at stake, right? I know: to you, Jon, I'm probably a communist or a terrorist sympathizer or something, and so in harmony, I would say you would have to be a fascist or a terrorist sympathizer or just a fool. That's where a lot of us are today in the good old U.S.A. I will not post on this topic again.

Unknown said...

We'll miss you.

Unknown said...

Preposterous to object to the speech of Mrs. Smith.

And speaking of lower, if the vile rape story fraud is not a fraud, you can come and live in my house. But you won't be living in my house. Because it is a fraud. (Or maybe the poor girl sees things, but this never happened.)

Jon Ericson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jon Ericson said...

You misunderstand me Mr. Unknown.

You are not the Unknown without a Profile. I can differentiate between the two.

I was pointing out that Unknown with no profile is a troll; no doubt about that, whereas you, Mr. Unknown appear to be an honest citizen.

No Ad hominem attacks against you, Mr Unknown.

Gahrie said...

the use of a grieving mother, Mrs. Smith, to make a preposterous, individual attack

What was preposterous? Given Hillary's known propensity to lie, I find Mrs. Smith's claims entirely plausible. What do you mean by "individual"? Hillary lied to Mrs. Smith's face as she stood over the body of her son, and Mrs. Smith called her out on it....how could it be anything but individual?

All that said...it is no surprise that the media treats Mrs. Smith very differently than they did Cindy Sheehan.

YoungHegelian said...

@Unknown profile #03638214295501385794

I am not a troll. I do not get into vicious exchanges. But after reading about the stuff that went on last night ... not so much the Melania nonsense as the use of a grieving mother, Mrs. Smith, to make a preposterous, individual attack,

Two words for you: Cindy Sheehan.

to you, Jon, I'm probably a communist or a terrorist sympathizer or something,

No, you're just someone who posts too much, & seems to have absolutely no constructive arguments to make nor the capabilities of following the arguments in an exchange. The only thing you seem to know how to do is to keep on throwing mud against the Trump wall to see what sticks. I'm sorry -- that's just BOR-ING.

Personally, I'd actually welcome someone who could argue persuasively for an HRC presidency, but that doesn't seem to be happening not only here, but anywhere.

You're a blight. Go away.

Terry said...

"I will not post on this topic again."
But I will. The victims of Clinton's violent and abusive sexual behavior should be remembered, or else Americans may vote to put him back in the White House again.
The names of Clinton's victims:

Paula Jones.
Kathleen Willey.
Juanita Broaddrick.
Eileen Wellstone.

Clinton had a number of voluntary affairs while Married to Hillary.

Dolly Kyle.
Gennifer Flowers.
Monica Lewinsky.
Elzabeth Gracen.
Sally Perdue.

rehajm said...

A different angle on Nate's data- Hills lead has been cut in more than half and still leads only because of her more sizable lead in the stale polling.

Fresh and new has Trump leading...

Jon Ericson said...

To Mr. Unknown:
You are welcome to post here, but do whatever you can to differentiate yourself from "Unknow profile not found"
You posted after "Unknow profile not found" just said his shift ended.
YOU HAVE THE SAME NAME!
Get yourself a name and get back here. You are obviously far above the character of such butt munchers such as shiloh.

rehajm said...

it is no surprise that the media treats Mrs. Smith very differently than they did Cindy Sheehan.

As I recall the media treated Cindy the same as Mrs. Smith once Cindy was no longer useful.

Unknown said...

How is it that Jon Ericson has the authority to tell a commenter that they are welcome or unwelcome to comment on Althouse? Who does this guy think he is?

Jon Ericson said...

Ah, "Unknown no profile" is telling me that I can't give advice to Mr. Unknown to change his handle and come back.

Young Hegelian was the one who suggested that Mr. Unknown hit the road.

I thought your shift had ended.

Unknown said...

Yeah, no, I'm good.

Noted, Jon. --Arch

Unknown said...

This invasion of Hill-trolls is an interesting phenomenon, which should be studied, analyzed and perhaps investigated. I don't know Goodle/Blogger well enough but there must be some tools. I'd bet these are used at other sites, for example. Not NSA level, just good old detective work. --Arch

Unknown said...

Jon, do you realize that there are Unknowns that have posted here from a conservative point of view for years now, that keep their profiles private, FYI, you don't get to dictate to commenters how they must sign in to their Blogger Profiles. Jerk.

Unknown said...

Different Unknown Jonny, she left for the day. I'm on the 2nd shift. I'll let you in on a super duper secret, the DNC has given us instructions to use only "Unknown" as our group moniker from now on.

Jon Ericson said...

EVERYONE PLEASE READ THE COMMENTS FROM "UNKNOWN NO PROFILE" JUST ABOVE.
THANK YOU.

narciso said...

given that they actually put the filmmaker in jail, and waited a year before nabbing the one who they thought was the ringleader, abu khattalah, another figure, anwar al libi, died in custody,

Jon Ericson said...

Yeah we noticed that you were directed to use "Unknown".
Makes Althouse more confusing and causes well-regarded posters to get confused and shout down unsuspecting left-leaning posters.

Unknown said...

Jonny, I'm quite certain that Althouse commenters are intelligent enough not to be overly concerned who is which Unknown. I bet they don't really give a shit. You however, are a troll who seems to think he has some authority with other commenters here. You contribute precious little of substance to any discussion and your obsession with other commenters' identities is very odd and boring as hell.

Jon Ericson said...

Thanks for your concern.
God bless you.

Unknown said...

So Jonny admits that he is here to "shout down" other commenters. Jonny, you are probably not "well regarded" by most here, that would be my suspicion.

Spiros Pappas said...

The Melania plagiarism rap is likely to subtract a 1/2 point or so from Mr. Trump's support. It just looks sad! Something a loser would do! And it's an odd bit of stupidity or maybe an ugly sucker punch from the Never Trump scoundrels.

Jon Ericson said...

You suspect wrong.

Paul said...

It ain't no 30 percent chance Trump will win. It's more like 30 percent chance he will lose.

He will win by a landslide. He has not even BEGUN to advertise Hillary's faults on TV, radio, print. He will drag her trough the mud so often her hacking cough will be permanent.

Jon Ericson said...

I just came out of the woodwork from being a daily lurker at Althouse since way back when she smashed her Bug.
What made me speak up was the jerks who harassed Doctor K into looking for less troll infested sites to comment.
THAT is what pissed me off.

Unknown said...

Oh cry me a river, Michael K gave as good as he got. It was his choice to be a nasty old curmudgeon to anyone he suspected of being a liberal commenter.

Terry said...

I think if Hillary gets elected, Bill should hire Monica Lewinsky to be his intern. America just can't get enough of those scamps!

AReasonableMan said...

Jon Ericson said...
I just came out of the woodwork from being a daily lurker at Althouse since way back when she smashed her Bug.
What made me speak up was the jerks who harassed Doctor K into looking for less troll infested sites to comment.


As a point of information, I have seen MK make this statement at least a half a dozen times in the past. Just saying'.

Drago said...

Looks like another banner day for the left.

KC cop shot and a mother and 3 daughters stabbed in France by some guy named Mohammed.

Naturally no motives can identified by the authorities or Obama.

All we know is that BLM is a peaceful protest movement and Islam is a religion of peace.

BTW, the girls were aged 8, 12 and 14..and white..and non Muslim so naturally they had it coming as our resident leftists can explain.

Unknown said...

I heard that Alex Jones got his ass beat at the protest outside the convention today. I don't advocate violence but there are times that people do hit back.

Jon Ericson said...

@"Unknown No Profile"
Doctor K, unfortunately does not suffer fools gladly.
But we suffer because of the ad hominem attacks.

Jon Ericson said...

When the stables are cleaned, Doctor K will be back.

Unknown said...

"Jon". I suspect you may be the Doctor himself, LOL! Whatever., makes no difference to me. Carry on.

Jon Ericson said...

Why thank you for comparing my poor prose for the Doctor's!
obligitory LOL

Drago said...

On another day of unrestrained leftist/Muslim violence Unknown goes on the record supporting assault.

But of course.

n.n said...

Drago:

Only an attempted abortion of an innocent woman and her daughters. Anti-native policies continue to pay dividends in blood, but their days of securing democratic leverage may be numbered.

Drago said...

By the way, how does a Secretary of State come to believe and publicly state that she was fired upon by snipers when she really wasn't?

Terry said...

"I don't advocate violence but there are times that people do hit back."
Who did Alex Jones hit?

Unknown said...

We liberals "suffer ad hominem attacks" daily, every damn time we comment. Do you hear us whining like you? No. Now grow a pair and add something of substance to the thread. I'm done wasting my time on your nonsense trollery.

Unknown said...

I don't know who he hit but I came in on the tail end of a Periscope live streaming from the protest and people were saying there was a scuffle between Alex Jones and some protestors. No one knew who was who, except for Jones.

Jon Ericson said...

No, only if you act like shiloh , R&B, or yourself.

Terry said...

http://www.kplctv.com/story/32479326/watch-live-black-lives-matter-protest-near-east-4th-st?clienttype=generic&sf31289924=1
Activists from Black Lives Matter, Westboro Baptist Church and the KKK were in the square and, at one time, were said to be throwing urine at each other.

Police were trying to draw a line and keep the groups separated.

Why?

Terry said...

They could all form one big group called "The Aristocrats" :)

Jon Ericson said...

LOL good question!

Jon Ericson said...

"Unknown no profile" furiously checking Talking points memo.

Unknown said...

Alex Jones fights with union protesters

Jon Ericson said...

See?

Terry said...

It looks like the guy carrying a red commie flag swung first, unknown.

Jon Ericson said...

@Terry
Throwing or "aiming"?

Unknown said...

I agree, it does look like the union guy elbowed him. I suppose his ears must've been hurting with Jones using the bullhorn mere inches from his face, provoking him.

Unknown said...

Jonny, have you heard of YouTube or even Google? One can easy and quick searches there. Remember, Google is your friend.

Unknown said...

Do

Jon Ericson said...

Why, yes I have. Why do you ask?

Unknown said...

Drama, drama, drama, inside and outside the convention. One can be grateful the bullets aren't flying.

Drago said...

Unknown: "One can be grateful the bullets aren't flying."

The left has not shown up in force yet so it's not surprising that bullets aren't flying at the convention.

Democrat controlled cities are not so fortunate however. Plenty of bullets are flying in those places.

Drago said...

Unknown: "Alex Jones fights with union protesters"

Thanks for posting the video which shows someone pushing Jones first.

Drago said...

The question remains: How many cops have to be murdered in a day for that day to be considered a success by the left?

Unknown said...

You're entirely welcome Drago. Let the record show who threw the first punch.

Jon Ericson said...

Cleveland is prepared to arrest and lock up 2000 protesters.

Unknown said...

Truth in reporting is something we all can agree on.

Drago said...

Unknown:"You're entirely welcome Drago. Let the record show who threw the first punch."

How many times do you have to be shoved before beginning to protect yourself?

I realize that the left tends to employ the Trayvon Rule which requires allowing someone to beat your head against a sidewalk and not respond, but what are your thoughts in this instance?

Jon Ericson said...

Fighting words, Plus a push.
LOL!

Drago said...

Unknown: "Truth in reporting is something we all can agree on."

There is no such thing as truth, said every leftist everywhere.

Jon Ericson said...

Don't the ends justify the means?

Unknown said...

Drago, I said the union guy shoved Jones first, waddya want from me, my firstborn child? Or are you a slow learner?

Unknown said...

"I agree, it does look like the union guy elbowed him. I suppose his ears must've been hurting with Jones using the bullhorn mere inches from his face, provoking him."

7/19/16, 7:13 PM
------

Drago said...

Unknown: "Drago, I said the union guy shoved Jones first, waddya want from me, my firstborn child? Or are you a slow learner?"

Why is the possibility of being a "slow learner" the alternative to wanting a firstborn child?

Why didn't you just ask "waddya want from me, my firstborn child? Or are you a lapsed Methodist?"


Terry said...

Found this on PJ media coverage of the GOP convention:
https://pjmedia.com/blog/liveblogevent/republican-national-convention-day-two/
Guy wearing a Che Guevara t-shirt says that if Trump is elected, Trump will turn the US into a banana republic.
He says this with utter sincerity, as though he believes that a person wearing a shirt celebrating a mass murderer should have his thoughts on politics seriously considered.
Maybe he was being ironic.

Jon Ericson said...

So, "Unknown No Profile" are you the new "Unknown No Profile" or is the second shift late?

shiloh said...

"Looks like another banner day for the left.

KC cop shot and a mother and 3 daughters stabbed in France by some guy named Mohammed.

Naturally no motives can identified by the authorities or Obama.

All we know is that BLM is a peaceful protest movement and Islam is a religion of peace.

BTW, the girls were aged 8, 12 and 14..and white..and non Muslim so naturally they had it coming as our resident leftists can explain."

It's ad nauseam arrogant, self-righteous con sarcasm like this that really turn off moderate independents er swing/undecided voters and keep Rep party leaders clueless er scratching their heads re: why they keep losing presidential elections.

mockturtle said...

Terry: Guy wearing a Che Guevara t-shirt says that if Trump is elected, Trump will turn the US into a banana republic.
He says this with utter sincerity, as though he believes that a person wearing a shirt celebrating a mass murderer should have his thoughts on politics seriously considered.
Maybe he was being ironic.


Nah, no irony. My brother is also a Trump-hating Che Guevara fan. He even named his son Che. At least, he won't be voting for Hillary.

Terry said...

Mockturtle said...
. . .
Nah, no irony. My brother is also a Trump-hating Che Guevara fan. He even named his son Che. At least, he won't be voting for Hillary.

My older brother is a vegan who voted for Kucinich.
Your brother is probably onboard with Hillary with Hillary gutting the first, second, fourth and fifth amendments. Hillary could probably get his vote if she came out strongly against the third amendment. I think that is the one that keeps the government from forcing women to have sex with soldiers.

cyrus83 said...

While the plural of anecdote is bullshit, here are three items that reflect Hillary's troubles:

- Driving past one of the projects this week, a sign was posted in a window saying "The Silent Majority Stands with Trump". There were no observable Hillary signs in the inhabited portion of this project.

- During dinner with some family and friends, everyone else at the table had heard of Ginsburg's comments and strongly disapproved. There was some definite sympathy toward voting for Trump caused by these remarks. Of the 5 people at this table, the vote was 4-1 for Obama in 2008, and may well be 5-0 Trump in 2016.

- Distrust of Hillary continues to come up whenever anyone wants to discuss politics at family gatherings. Most of them come from what would be considered blue-collar Democratic roots.

I think the debates will prove rather interesting in this context. Despite the best efforts of the moderators to protect her, Hillary's most vulnerable time is going to be during the debates, particularly if Trump tries to bring up any of her problems. The question isn't so much analyzing Trump's lies versus her lies, it will come down to whether Hillary can retain her composure, rebuff his attacks, and not sound like a dishonest hack in the process.

Terry said...

The only way Trump could screw up the debates would be if he showed up wearing a mankini.
Wait! Scratch that! That is a fantastic idea!
Better yet, Melania stands next to Trump, topless, during the debates!
"Hillary? Isn't that sometimes a man's name? I only ask, Hillary, because sometimes I look at you and see an old man instead of an old woman. Maybe it's the lighting. What do you think, Melania? Jump up and down a bit when you answer, that's a good girl."
I gotta million great ideas like this.

Birkel said...

So we are clear: Leftists started a fight and one of the myriad new trolls called Unknown approves.

Meanwhile, Leftist groups from BLM, Westboro Baptist Church and the KKK got in a spat. I do not approve of such violence.

shiloh said...

"So we are clear:"

Good thing you're keeping track since MK is no longer here to be the omniscient gatekeeper ...

Birkel said...

Where do you come down on the violence that so permeates the Left, shiloh?

damikesc said...

That's partly how Bush beat Kerry--if the referendum was on Bush and the Iraq War, he may well have lost--but voters had to approve of Kerry who was not an acceptable alternative.

...and let's be honest, his term as Sec of State has proven the wisdom of the American voters. That Brit paper that called us dumb for re-electing Bush might want to re-visit that and just look at what an imbecile Kerry is.

And in 2000, Bush had about a 4-point lead on the eve of the conventions, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. (Bush won the Electoral College, of course.)

It's like saying "Team A gained 500 more yards of offense, but Team B won by the scoreboard". Bush won the actual contest.

I am not a troll. I do not get into vicious exchanges. But after reading about the stuff that went on last night ... not so much the Melania nonsense as the use of a grieving mother, Mrs. Smith, to make a preposterous, individual attack

Yes, grieving moms --- fuck 'em, amirite?

Run on that. PLEASE.

I heard that Alex Jones got his ass beat at the protest outside the convention today. I don't advocate violence but there are times that people do hit back.

He had it coming, eh?

Rob Schwarz said...

Because everything has followed historical patterns this election, right?

harkin said...

"Bush won the Electoral College, of course"

He also won Florida (even the Miami Herald and NYTimes agreed).

Constitution ftw!!