April 26, 2016

Hillary and Trump win everything tonight.

There. That's all you need to know. You don't have to dwell on it. Tonight is simple.

COMPLICATION: Bernie takes Rhode Island and Connecticut is still not called.

98 comments:

chickelit said...

Absolutely no chance for Cruz to schmooze back some of the delegates?

It ain't over until Chuck weighs in.

madAsHell said...

When does the FBI start leaking the evidence against Hillary?

Limited blogger said...

Can Trump win any of these 5 in the general? I think he can.

Mark said...

It's all over but the cryin' as the Ink Spots said.

https://youtu.be/2Ko9TpduOhE

Steven Davis said...

@ Limited blogger

PA is the best possibility, and it would be significant.

AprilApple said...

PA is a GOP pipe dream.

Current (still counting) PA primary vote totals per party:

GOP - 43K
Dem - 138K

Michael K said...

My concern now is whether Trump can raise the money for the general election. The donor class will sit this one out.

Even the Koch brothers plan to sit it out.

I doubt George Soros has any second thoughts about Hillary. She is bought and paid for.

Nyamujal said...

President Hillary Clinton. Get used to the sound of that guys.

commoncents said...

Fox News Live Stream - SUPER Tuesday Presidential Coverage - Eastern Take over 4-26-16:
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/04/live-streaming-super-tuesday.html

Beldar said...

Yes, they'll win everything that's up for grabs tonight.

But that's not all they need -- not either of them, and especially not Trump.

Chuck said...

chickelit said...
Absolutely no chance for Cruz to schmooze back some of the delegates?

It ain't over until Chuck weighs in.


Well, since you asked, Trump's big Pennsylvania win tonight netted him 17 committed delegates out of the state's 71. I think that there will be obvious pressure on the 54 at-larges to follow the primary vote, of course. But the already-selected Pennsylvania delegation is by all accounts not personally predisposed to Trump. Ask me again after Indiana, which is a true winner-take-all state.

Incidentally, the triumphalism over me with any Trump primary win is largely wasted. Of course I am rooting for Trump to be defeated in the nominating process. I would have liked to have seen him suffer some upsets tonight. I simply do not understand the Trump voters.

But I have never predicted a loss for Trump; I just think that he is a weak general election candidate, with tremendously bad negatives, and my supposition (not a prediction) is that he would lose in November, if he is given the nomination. Nothing new from me there.

Bob W. said...

Sanders wn Rhode Island.

Sydney said...

Sanders also won Connecticut.

Ann Althouse said...

Oh! I bailed too soon.

traditionalguy said...

President Trump tonight and. Border Patrol tomorrow.

He works fast.

Steven Davis said...

Chuck, it doesn't matter now. You say Hillary will beat Trump, and that may well be true, but if the GOP puts ANYBODY but Trump up as the candidate, assuming he has close to the needed 1237, the loss will be a landslide of epic proportions. Trump has a puncher's chance, he polls within 10 points and has demonstrated time and again that that he gets voters out for him. If the GOP subverts the voter's will, the turnout will be abysmal at best.

bagoh20 said...

The two candidates with the highest negatives will get the nod from their respective parties. During the election, one will be fighting indictment, and the other will be fighting a class action fraud case. What a country! Mexico has cleaner candidates.

In the general, Trumps supporters will only be eclipsed by his detractors. He is simultaneously the most liked and the most hated. Hillary is less of both, which means he gets the most votes placed against him and she gets the most votes in spite of herself. Not good for Trumpers, and not good for the country either. Out of the two candidates which most people don't want, we will get one. Yipeeeeee!

Sammy Finkelman said...

"Hillary and Trump win everything tonight."

That's not true. Sanders won Rhode Island by a large margin, and is leading in a very close race in Connecticut.

The other big thing to know is that Kasich is second and Cruz third everywhere except in Pennsylvania. Trump gets above 50% in every one of the five states. Kasich does not break 27% anywhere.

there is more to know when it comes to delegates.

Sammy Finkelman said...

madAsHell said...4/26/16, 7:51 PM

When does the FBI start leaking the evidence against Hillary?

When did they start leaking it about Nixon?

Things didn't really start to get bad for him until after his landslide victory.

bagoh20 said...

"...can you think of anything that would help Trump win in the general?"

I have substantial confidence that Hilary will implode. She is just terrible at this stuff, and Trump may well be the guy to induce enough stress to cause it. It would be nice if we didn't need to hope for such stupid shit, but that's what we have created. A reality show election deserves a reality show ending.

Chuck said...

I am watching Trump now, and won't watch him much longer because it is just too awful...

None of Coach Knight's friends call him "Bobby." He is "Bob." Trump calling him "Bobby" is like "Two Corinthians."

Chuck said...

btw; does Trump look like an alien on your television? I have a pretty good, pretty standard television. Trump looks like a Star Trek character, with an orange face, a bright blue eye-mask, and an orange Mohawk stipe in the middle of his head.

EMD said...

None of Coach Knight's friends call him "Bobby." He is "Bob." Trump calling him "Bobby" is like "Two Corinthians."

Do any of the disaffected voters give two shits about Bob vs. Bobby?

Drago said...

Chuck: "btw; does Trump look like an alien on your television? I have a pretty good, pretty standard television. Trump looks like a Star Trek character, with an orange face, a bright blue eye-mask, and an orange Mohawk stipe in the middle of his head"

Hillary looked and sounded galactically horrific.

Most lifelong republicans think so.

Most.

Some lifelong republicans, odd as it might strike some, even find it within themselves to offer up criticism of Hillary.

Some.

Drago said...

EMD: "Do any of the disaffected voters give two shits about Bob vs. Bobby"

No.

None.

But some Hillary protectors do, and very much so.

AReasonableMan said...

Surprisingly good night for Trump. It is now close to impossible to stop Trump, which is essentially what the Koch's have conceded. Cruz offers no advantage to the GOPe over Trump that would make it worth their while to create the chaos necessary to dump Trump.

buwaya said...

"None of Coach Knight's friends call him "Bobby." He is "Bob." Trump calling him "Bobby" is like "Two Corinthians." -

He's "Bobby" from now on, if he hasn't been. Such is the immense power of Trump.

buwaya said...

" I simply do not understand the Trump voters."

I, a foreigner do. That is strange.

Amexpat said...

Can Trump win any of these 5 in the general? I think he can.

Doubt it. HRC is getting significantly more votes than Trump in each State, even in RI where she came in second. In total, the Dems are getting more votes than the GOP by a huge margin. In PA with 64% of the votes in, the Dems have gotten roughly 200,000 more votes than the GOP candidates.

Miriam said...

"In total, the Dems are getting more votes than the GOP by a huge margin. In PA with 64% of the votes in, the Dems have gotten roughly 200,000 more votes than the GOP candidates."

And that's exactly what will happen in the general. Clinton wins in a landslide of historical proportions.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Both getting all: everything so to speak. But winning is too Charlie Sheen.

Intriguing, but not intriguing enough.

This site and and these comments have let me down recently, lacking both the spunk* and the Ed Asner character hatred of such, I've created.

*Nevermind.

I gave you all so much, so so much beauty; straight up downright unGodforsaken beauts, all(l)y.

And all you have to do is buy Art of the Deal through the portal, here, and you can find redemption in even such as yourselfs or selves as you like.

Never One to forego yourself a lil' bit o' the knowledge, you can, in this rarest of instances, be like Patton too: read his book. C'mon you can find 2 cent copies on Amoxan, this very instant. Go do it. Make yourself fireproof to any potential hair-brained allegation of ignorance of John Locke, Norman Bourlag, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump.

BN said...

"Pennsylvanians should certainly consider Republican vote in November. The Democrats basically hate Pennsylvania and want it to die. Hello, coal?"

Hello, unions?

Drago said...

Miriam: "And that's exactly what will happen in the general. Clinton wins in a landslide of historical proportions."

If only Kasich was our nominee. He would sweep to victory in each of these heavily democrat states.

All it would take would be a few more well-timed lectures to the republican base voters regarding our lack of compassion.

That would do it.

buwaya said...

I imagine Chuck and myself dressed for dinner in tropical whites, standing on the verandah with our cigars and gin-and-tonics, muttering about the natives being restless tonight, with the tom-toms banging on so ominously.

Chuck of course can't suss out why the blighters have found themselves a proper mad mullah out there. They'll be rushing the residency next, just you wait. Wound up, he is.

Laslo Spatula said...

buwaya said...
I imagine Chuck and myself dressed for dinner in tropical whites, standing on the verandah with our cigars and gin-and-tonics, muttering about the natives being restless tonight, with the tom-toms banging on so ominously.

Nothing to add, other than I really enjoy reading Buwaya. Thank you for your contributions.

I am Laslo.

BN said...

So it's Trump v. Hillary.

The Old Testament will rise again!

We will get what we deserve.

BN said...

Oh, and what a bunch of little POS states these are (Penn excepted). Combine them all into one state called Yankee Values Land and split Texas and California into 3 states each.

If Trump would propose that, I'd vote for him. Will he do it?

AReasonableMan said...

Proportionally, Trump now has a bigger lead over Cruz than Hillary has over Bernie.

BN said...

And yes, Sammy F @ 7:51, all that really matters is who Hillary's VP choice is going to be.

pm317 said...

Connecticut for Clinton.

Guildofcannonballs said...

None of the smart set has of yet not heard the dog bark. Ing as Art C. Doyle wrote. He was a smart guy so I shoulda probably have written fucking "barking" fercryingoutloud.

Sure sure we've seen a scene of weak bullshit "Trump cunted-up Reagan" and whatnot; haven't we.

What we ain't seen is the contemporary accounts, what Sherlock was about.

To be clear: Trump will depress Conservative turnout through precisely mainly current or forward-orientation enunciadeclaimations.

shiloh said...

Again, vote totals for either party in the primaries are meaningless as regards to the general. Just want to give the die hard cons here a little hope.

Although the chances of Reps winning PA/MD/CT/RI/DE/NY/NJ are zilch. As always, Reps need a royal flush ie Dems can still win without FL or OH whereas Reps have to run the table.

>

Interesting thought for 2020. Will any of these fools er Trump's disappearing Rep opponents in 2016 have the nerve to show their faces let alone run for president again (4) years from now?

On a similar note will Cheney or Bush make a live appearance in Cleveland or are they still in the witness protection program?

President Trump? ... it could happen ~ keep hope alive!

Michael K said...

"I simply do not understand the Trump voters."

We know. Neither does the WSJ or IBM which is laying off thousands, or Disney which is forcing IT workers to train their H1B replacements or lose their severance pay.

The GOPe is a Keynesian throwback at a time that Japan is dying a Keynesian death.

The central planners imposed a number of zany anti-market schemes on the Japanese economy that have never been substantively reformed to this day. Legislators shielded Japan’s massive industrial base from foreign competition through protectionist tariffs and even subsidized some overseas exports. On the domestic front, nascent Japanese companies were heavily burdened by onerous regulations and very high taxes — this made it nearly impossible for start-ups to get off the ground and challenge the corporate establishment's market share. As if this was not enough, exporters were further coddled by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ has been fervently trying to turn the yen into toilet paper for the last thirty years. A cheap currency means artificially high profits for companies that export goods and artificially high costs for companies that import goods. After all, no government scheme could rightfully call itself a government scheme if it didn't enrich somebody at the direct expense of others. The destructive effects of these policies have massively eroded Japanese productivity in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

There's more.

Michael K said...

Although the chances of Reps winning PA/MD/CT/RI/DE/NY/NJ are zilch.

Yeah, Republicans never win 49 states in an election.

This is a very odd year and you might try to watch and listen instead of run your keyboard.

BN said...

"Yeah, Republicans never win 49 states in an election.

This is a very odd year..."

So, you're saying Republicans won 49 states in 1980 but this is "a very odd year", but yet it's the same as 1980?

What's weird is that I actually get that. I don't think it's that odd a year though. It might be if it were Cruz, who actually is a Reagan conservative. But no, Trump is pretty normal for these times and this society.

narciso said...

history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme, trump is less doctrinaire like nixon, who had his own shortcomings,

shiloh said...

"Yeah, Republicans never win 49 states in an election."

Non sequitur aside, Dutch ain't rising from the dead and has one been paying attention to the last (6) general election cycles?

A very odd year indeed where Trump has made a shambles of the Rep deep bench! Reps have talked ad nauseam the last 8 years of running a true conservative and instead have picked a billionaire reality star chameleon. Hey, he's not politically correct, if not being politically correct means constantly changing your political positions daily.

ok, in that sense he's a true garden variety politician. Again, win or lose Trump will still be a billionaire when the election is over and won't have to pick up the pieces of a discombobulated Rep party.

Sebastian said...

"if the GOP puts ANYBODY but Trump up as the candidate, assuming he has close to the needed 1237, the loss will be a landslide of epic proportions" Except Trump also produces the destruction of the Congressional GOP.

"The GOPe is a Keynesian throwback" Huh? But yes, that does help us understand Trump voters and their grasp of economics.

narciso said...

like wage and price controls, but the doctrinaire have forgotten their own dogma's possibilities,

Paul said...

Sorry but I think Bernie won one... Or two.

Guildofcannonballs said...

To be clear, I consider Obama's answer to the question regarding Alan Colmes positions on this topic to be dispositive, and I don't know what that term means,

I just know Obama said "Yeah, I didn't, I just din'[t dknow what to say to him; But the fact is I support funding for that education at kindergarten///

I still don't understand how Obama made everyone in the audience laugh at how bigoted and hateful Alan Colmes was (is that even the name of Obama's opponent or am I further inflicting hatred disguised as disagreement?) and then advocating, with all the skill of Obama, for what Colmes claimed was questionable, by deeming Colmes a hateful suppressor.

I really hate people that take childhood from children. I enjoy adults learning from suppresson because in many ways that creates unsuppression.

Any talk of any of this is merely uncynical, not non unfortuneatley, yet even considering the worst, who but an ass wouldn't appreciate what America's kinda given: though taken for all those soldiers souls who gave, which abound without the honor and decency of America's volunteer forces. Such is such abundance.

BN said...

Michael K said: "We know. Neither does the WSJ or IBM which is laying off thousands, or Disney which is forcing IT workers to train their H1B replacements or lose their severance pay.

The GOPe is a Keynesian throwback at a time that Japan is dying a Keynesian death.

'THE CENTRAL PLANNERS IMPOSED A NUMBER OF ZANY ANTI-MARKET SCHEMES ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY... AND LEGISLATORS SHIELDED JAPAN’S MASSIVE INDUSTRIAL BASE FROM FOREIGN COMPETITION THROUGH PROTECTIONIST TARIFFS AND EVEN SUBSIDIZED SOME OVERSEAS EXPORTS. ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT, NASCENT JAPANESE COMPANIES WERE HEAVILY BURDENED BY ONEROUS REGULATIONS... AND EXPORTERS WERE FURTHER CODDLED BY THE BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ). ' "

This is incoherent. Do you want "anti-market schemes" by "central planners"--i.e., govt interference in free trade and in IBM/Disney's freedom to act in there own interest in a free market--or not?

Michael Fitzgerald said...

BN said... Trump is pretty normal for these times and this society.
4/26/16, 11:08 PM

Truer words were never spoken. Trumpmania USA is just the logical progression from Arnoldmania CA a decade or so ago. What I find most disturbing is the mendacious conspiracy to portray Donald Trump as some unknown evil Hitler-figure staging a beer-hall putsch. This guy has been in every issue of People magazine since the 80's. He had a top-rated television show for years, and his catch-phrase became a punchline across the country. He pals around with Hill and Bill, and the press has always LOVED Donald Trump, and still does, even as they attempt to destroy him. Has there ever been a candidate for office who had so much press attention? From Obama to Trump, a logical progression.

Alexander said...

A year ago, the smart money would have given Trump zero primaries.

Tell me more about what the smart money says about the general election.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Fuck me it is Alan Keyes isn't it?

Fyc

Steven Davis said...

@Sebastian

"Except Trump also produces the destruction of the Congressional GOP.

If half of GOP voters stay home, the same thing happens.

Qwinn said...

Guys, I live in PA. Don't make that much out of the Dem/Rep turnout numbers. The Dems had a hotly contested 3 way Senate primary here tonight, while Pat Toomey, the Republican, ran unopposed. For the last month, every commercial has been for the Dem Senators and Hillary. Saw 2 for Bernie, 1 for Trump and, depressingly, not one for Cruz. He even only had one delegate to vote for here in Bucks County, Trump had 3.

Smilin' Jack said...

This is a very odd year..."

So, you're saying Republicans won 49 states in 1980 but this is "a very odd year", but yet it's the same as 1980?

What's weird is that I actually get that. I don't think it's that odd a year though. It might be if it were Cruz, who actually is a Reagan conservative. But no, Trump is pretty normal for these times and this society.


This is a very even year, as was 1980. Love Trump or hate him, but please don't argue with the math.

Steven Davis said...

@ Smilin' Jack

I voted for John Anderson in 1980. Reagan was against a heavily favored Jimmy Carter. Ronald Ray-Gun was a stupid actor that would start a nuclear war. We all know how that election and that administration turned out. I voted for Reagan in 1984.

tim in vermont said...

THe Dem "deep bench" is pretty impressive. The coach's daughter who has no game and some guy who was too stupid or didn't care that he was making enemies in his own party.

I vote for the stupid guy!

Brando said...

It's getting closer to the inevitable Trump v. Hillary, which doesn't bode well for the GOP this fall up and down the ballot. I hope Toomey et al have a plan to hold their Senate seats.

Trump will probably fall just short of a majority of delegates, but even if some uncommitted don't drift to him before the convention, it'll go to him after a few ballots because there's no natural replacement (Cruz will make the case, but he's got more ground to make up). While a lot of activists, voters and donors will stick with the GOP, though, I suspect more of them will sit this one out than on the Dem side--and considering the usual Dem advantages in presidential elections this will ensure crooked Hillary back in office.

Ah well. This country has survived worse. Just hope we have some checks and balances before she sells everything out.

Brando said...

"Except Trump also produces the destruction of the Congressional GOP.

If half of GOP voters stay home, the same thing happens."

It'd damned if you do and damned if you don't for the GOP. No newly inserted candidate can build up a campaign and ground game in the amount of time left. And yet Trump hasn't actually done that either, so advantage Hillary. While a year ago she was beatable, she's now running against a bitterly divided party with a laughably unpopular and well known nominee, which instead of spending the last several months pummelling her managed to eat itself.

It would take some deus ex machina to salvage this for the GOP.

Brando said...

"Yeah, Republicans never win 49 states in an election."

The country was very different back then. California was a red state, the south was just starting to switch GOP, and the GOP was still strong in the Northeast, great lakes and even the northwest. There's a few reasons those states have been consistently blue since the '80s--immigration (and a GOP inability to appeal to non-whites, not just Hispanics), a greater turnout among blacks, and the drift of white suburbanites to the Dems (when they used to be the GOP mainstay). Trump isn't going to reverse that.

tim in vermont said...

I just can't get that worked up about it anymore. I am a little 'd' democrat and I will abide by the choice of the people. Won't be leaving for Canada or anything. It is sad to me, however.

Brando said...

"I just can't get that worked up about it anymore. I am a little 'd' democrat and I will abide by the choice of the people. Won't be leaving for Canada or anything. It is sad to me, however."

Hey, voters deserve what they elect--and in the big picture, nothing much will really change. We'll still have about ten million illegals in this country, porous borders, dangerous cities, a weak labor market, an inane tax system and everpresent deficits (that will grow with the next recession). We'll keep dropping bombs on the Middle East and the only complaint from Congress is that we're not getting ever more embroiled in foreign conflicts. The connected will prosper. And the beat goes on.

Maybe Hillary will overstep and get impeached. Though if the Dems take the House this time, that may have to wait until 2019.

Humperdink said...

Well I guess I am now reluctantly in the Trump camp. Anybody but the (hilda)Beast.

If Trump goes after the Beast like he went after his primary opponents, she wilts, he wins. The media will gamely try to resuscitate her to no avail.

If he goes "presidential" during the general, he gets smoked.

Still not a fan of Trump - too many wild cards.

AllenS said...

Once again, Trump got most of the votes.

Brando said...

"If Trump goes after the Beast like he went after his primary opponents, she wilts, he wins. The media will gamely try to resuscitate her to no avail.

If he goes "presidential" during the general, he gets smoked."

His unorthodox style does make it hard to predict how he will do against her. Hillary is probably a better target than anyone he faced yet, considering her poor political instincts, slowness in responding to things, lack of credibility and ability to seem sneaky even where it's not necessary. It's the one thing keeping me from guaranteeing she beats him.

But there's still major structural and personal disadvantages for him. Unpopular as Hillary is, he's looking much worse, and it's not like a lot of voters don't have set opinions of him. His style turns off at least as many people as it fires up. And the Dems have demographic and electoral advantages to overcome.

Add to that the lack of ground game (he'd have a lot of making up to do even if he started immediately--I don't think he could easily co-opt Cruz's) and the fact that Dems tend to band together for the general while Trump has a habit of making enemies where he doesn't need to (he needs the very establishment he sneers at, plus millions of GOP-leaners who currently don't like him). Again, events can change the landscape here, but I wouldn't lay any money on him.

traditionalguy said...

The Wollman Skating Ring crew already is headed for Texas border. Trump works fast.

The cheap opiate drugs that just killed Prince will soon be stopped even if it cruelly leads to mass Mexican unemployment.

Tommy Duncan said...

Drago said: Hillary looked and sounded galactically horrific.

I was a one man focus group last night. The words that popped into my head as I watched her walk to the podium and speak were:

Cellulite
Tent top jacket
Wrinkles
Old
Shrill
Platitudes

There is a reason they limit her exposure to the public. If I were the GOP I'd be playing clips of her shrill, mindless platitudes to remind the public of what the next 4 years might look like.

grackle said...

… the press has always LOVED Donald Trump, and still does, even as they attempt to destroy him.

Naw. What the MSM loves are the high ratings and sales that Trump brings them. But never doubt that they hate Trump. And that they’ll do anything they can to stop him.

Remember Rathergate? I think we can expect a few dirty tricks against Trump in the general election. They won’t work. Why? Because Trump has already set Hillary up as “crooked Hillary.” He’ll hang any dirty tricks around her neck like a pearl necklace. He’ll force her to deny the connection. And if she has to deny and explain … she’s losing.

Robert Cook said...

"When does the FBI start leaking the evidence against Hillary?"

Why would they? The Koch Brothers have already said she is the better choice, which means she is the official preferred choice of the financial elites who own and rule this country...as Obama was, as Bush was, as Clinton was, etc., etc.

tim maguire said...

Nyamujal said...President Hillary Clinton. Get used to the sound of that guys.

Don't be absurd. Given Hillary's problems and Trump's history, only a fool would put money on that race, but among those fools, only King Fool would put it on Hillary.

Robert Cook said...

"Well I guess I am now reluctantly in the Trump camp. Anybody but the (hilda)Beast."

Why not support a third party candidate?

grackle said...

… the press has always LOVED Donald Trump, and still does, even as they attempt to destroy him.

Naw. What the MSM loves are the high ratings and sales that Trump brings them. But never doubt that they hate Trump. And that they’ll do anything they can to stop him.

Remember Rathergate? I think we can expect a few dirty tricks against Trump in the general election. They won’t work. Why? Because Trump has already set Hillary up as “crooked Hillary.” He’ll hang any dirty tricks around her neck like a pearl necklace. He’ll force her to deny the connection. And if she has to deny and explain … she’s losing.

Sebastian said...

"Let's not forget that the reason immigration is a crisis is because of the welfare state." Right. So that's why the GOP should run a pro-amnesty, pro-entitlement Dem-lite.

@BN: "This is incoherent." You're gonna be saying that a lot between now and November.

wendybar said...

Yep!! The Donald won 5 liberal blue states, that will vote Democrat in November...Wow...just goes to show that he is as progressive as a "Republican" can be!!

Hagar said...

Ah, to dream the impossible dream . . .

Bill Roberts said...

"Third-party means you are for Hillary!"

I'm impervious to Trump blackmail.

"Now is the time for all to get behind the wheel and push."

No.

Trump may win in November, but he'll have to do it without voters like me. I'll vote R down-ticket. That's it.

AReasonableMan said...

Bill Roberts said...
Trump may win in November, but he'll have to do it without voters like me. I'll vote R down-ticket. That's it.


I'm curious. Trump is unquestionably more Republican than Hillary. He may not be as 'pure' as Cruz but no liberal thinks he is a fellow traveller. So, why not vote for Trump? What are your specific reasons for refusing to vote for a fellow Republican, even if he is not your ideal candidate?

Brando said...

"I don't know why you all want to write off Pennsylvania. It's a battleground state every cycle. Yeah, Romney can do it but Trump can't?"

The GOP-leaning pundits keep holding out Pennsylvania each election cycle like Lucy with the football, and every time the Dems get it by several points. The Dem voters there are increasing and the GOP voters there are dwindling.

The true purple states now are NV, CO, AZ, FL, OH, and VA. NC is going from Red to Purple. That dynamic favors the Dems, as the GOP has to win a lot more of those electoral votes up for grabs (and not have states like Indiana or Missouri pulled out from under them).

tim in vermont said...

Philadelphia phraud keeps PA blue.

They just had an AG get slapped down hard for looking into it.

shiloh said...

"The true purple states now are NV, CO, AZ, FL, OH, and VA. NC is going from Red to Purple."

And VA is going purple to blue ...

And yes, Reps will still do well/better in mid-terms when lazy libs stay home. So at least cons have something to hang their hat on.

>

The Trump phenomena in the mass media age is not hard to figure ie Ventura in MN and Auuunold in CA. Politics has always been about celebrity from Washington, Jefferson, FDR, JFK to present day. Plus core Reps are just tired of losing the presidency and have thrown caution to the wind. 'Cause ... What difference, at this point, does it make?

Trump is the front runner and primary voters of either party like a front runner. Nothing succeeds like success!

ok, I'm out of clich├ęs and yield back the balance of my time.

Phil 3:14 said...

Shiloh,
AZ is not purple.

Phil 3:14 said...

"So, why not vote for Trump? What are your specific reasons for refusing to vote for a fellow Republican, even if he is not your ideal candidate?"

I didn't join a team because "you have to pick a side". I went from independent to registered Republican because in AZ (at least when I moved here in the 90's) the real election was the Republican primary. A little less true today.


Trump's success indicates that I have far less in common with run of the mill Republicans than I thought. Likely, I'll go back to being an Independent.

shiloh said...

"Shiloh,
AZ is not purple."

Didn't say it was ~ Brando said it was purple.

Reading comprehension problem?

Brando said...

"AZ is not purple."

It is certainly more of a swing state than PA. And with a growing minority population don't be surprised if the Dems start winning it regularly.

Guildofcannonballs said...

The manification* of my racism has become apparent via my previously on this blog (maybe, as in a good chance it was here) misnaming Ben Cardin and Ben Carson, as well as Alan Keyes and Alan Colmes. I now reaffirmed my superior mind/nature/being compared to all whom have not acknowledged their sinful, born-in, nature.

*I just don't like the term manifestation as it cognates parallel with infestation.

Or investation as I had originally Freudianed.

Kyzernick said...

Y'all should read some of the Facebook comments on the absurdly pro-Hillary Politico's article posts. The Berniebots are mostly ADAMANT that they'll be either voting third-party or writing in Bernie. The hatred they're showing for Hillary makes most of the folks on this thread sound like Clinton campaign contributors.

Bill Roberts said...

ARM: "I'm curious. Trump is unquestionably more Republican than Hillary. He may not be as 'pure' as Cruz but no liberal thinks he is a fellow traveller. So, why not vote for Trump? What are your specific reasons for refusing to vote for a fellow Republican, even if he is not your ideal candidate?"

I'm not a purist. But your first sentence is begging the question - my issue is not the "republicanishness" of a candidate. I am against statism. I am for constitutional separation of powers. I'm for limited government. I want a president who understands his/her constitutional role and sticks to it. I want a boring president who doesn't make it about them. I believe cults of personality are dangerous and disappointing. I don't like liars (and regardless of whether I liked them or not, I don't believe anything a known liar says). I really, really don't like bullies. I want justice, mercy, and humility in a leader. Neither T nor H have given me any indication that any of those things matter to them. I don't think there's much difference between them, actually, and I think Trump is fooling a lot of people and they are buying it. The "R" after his name is meaningless to me. I can't vote for either one of them and sleep at night.

This idea that because Trump has an "R" after his name means that he's "obviously" the better choice is crazy. And I'm someone who's been pulling the R lever since 1984.

He may win. He'll have to do it without me. And it's not my fault if Hillary wins. You all have your work ahead of you and I don't wish you success.

Achilles said...

Sebastian said...

"The GOPe is a Keynesian throwback" Huh? But yes, that does help us understand Trump voters and their grasp of economics."

So the Republicans always raise federal spending and sometimes get a tax cut through. They are the last party to pass a new entitlement.

Sounds like the definition of keynesian economics.




Achilles said...

Bill Robert's said...

"I really, really don't like bullies. I want justice, mercy, and humility in a leader. Neither T nor H have given me any indication that any of those things matter to them. I don't think there's much difference between them, actually, and I think Trump is fooling a lot of people and they are buying it."

The last refuge of the #nevertrumper. You people are pathetic.

"He may win. He'll have to do it without me. And it's not my fault if Hillary wins. You all have your work ahead of you and I don't wish you success."

Epitome of the nevertrumper. They believe what they believe and everyone else is stupid. They alone know what lies in the deep dark depths of Trump's evil twisted mind and they project it with unwavering zeal. And most of all they are not responsible for Hillary winning if they do not vote. Pathetic.

One hallmark of intelligence is to be able to understand the point of view of other people. Nevertrumpers are closed minded projection machines. They are about 15% of the Republican voters and they are loud. You will grow up and take responsibility for your part or we will all lose.

wendybar said...

Bill Roberts, I am with you. I won't vote for a progressive, no matter what letter is after their name. I am voting for the Constitutionalist....

Bill Roberts said...

Achilles: "Epitome of the nevertrumper. They believe what they believe and everyone else is stupid. "

Did I say anyone was stupid?

"They alone know what lies in the deep dark depths of Trump's evil twisted mind and they project it with unwavering zeal."

I have no idea what's in his mind and have never claimed to know. I'm just observing. I called him a liar because he has lied about a number of things, such as how the IRS was auditing him because he's such a strong Christian, etc.

"One hallmark of intelligence is to be able to understand the point of view of other people"

Agreed. And you don't understand my point of view at all.

"You will grow up and take responsibility for your part"

I am grown up. Not voting for Trump is me taking responsibility for my own conscience. I have no quarrel with you if you think he's the right guy to vote for. I just disagree.

"or we will all lose."

I'm impervious to Trump blackmail.




William Chadwick said...

This country is seriously screwed.

Bill Roberts said...

ARM: Serious question, if you're still on this thread: I'm not a long timer but I thought you generally held the more liberal position in most of these debates. I also may be misreading you but it's hard to tell - are you supporting Trump? I'm interested.

Also interested in our hostess's position - she *seems* fairly sympathetic to Trump but I can't tell if that translates into support.

If it wasn't so terrifying this election season would be absolutely fascinating.

AReasonableMan said...

BR: My position is to vote for whomever I think has the best chance of solving a specific problem. I have been a supporter of Obama because his cool personality was ideally suited to a situation that had the makings of becoming an epic disaster, if it didn't already qualify for that descriptor when he took office.

Of the candidates that are left, Trump is the only one who seems capable of solving an important existing problem. The rise and rise of the financial industry is killing US manufacturing by creating perverse incentives for the CEOs of these companies. Accompanying this rise has been a monumental redistribution of wealth away from working whites, in particular, to the self-anointed meritocracy. The problems with immigration, loss of manufacturing jobs, off-shoring of mid-level white collar jobs all stem from the financialization of the economy. Trump seems to get this and may be willing to take the steps necessary to reverse this trend. To his credit, he has actually built physical things, which is more than all of the lawyers can claim.

Hillary is more of the same with regard to the financial industry and seems to be much worse than Trump on unnecessary wars. Cruz and Bernie are not serious candidates for a moderate voter. I could vote for Hillary but Trump would have to do something pretty dramatic for that to happen.

All the culture wars crap and attacks on a candidate's personality have zero impact on my voting preferences. I don't care whether they fuck women or men and whether or not they ate Vince Foster's still beating heart, just for the thrill of it. If they can fix anything, anything at all, I might vote for them. I work in a large organization. It is remarkably hard to fix things in large organizations. My expectations for a Trump presidency are very modest.

Michael Fitzgerald said...

AReasonableMan said...4/27/16, 2:46 PM

Good post, interesting perspective, thoughtful, an excellent reply to a question.