February 17, 2016

A new Quinnipiac poll has Clinton up nationally by only 2 points.



The previous Quinnipiac poll, from 12/16 - 12/20, had Clinton up by 31.

Trump is now up by 20.  The previous Quinnipiac poll, from 12/16 - 12/20, had Trump up by 9.

Here are the details from the new poll.

This is interesting:



Trump gets 30% of the college-educated Republican and Republican-leaning voters, with Rubio getting the second most from this group. Isn't it interesting that Cruz, who presents himself as intellectual, gets more support from those who don't have a college degree than from those who do? Trump also has more from those who don't than those who do, but Trump doesn't try to present himself as the thinking-man's/woman's candidate. (I'm just noticing that the phrase "the thinking man's [whatever]" has died out. Who believes in the concept of "the thinking man" anyway, perhaps someone who knows he/she hasn't been thinking enough and imagines outsourcing thinking to a character like Cruz.)

43 comments:

Bay Area Guy said...

Go Bernie!

Because nothing screams American Exceptionalism more than a 74-year old Vemont Socialist, who never had a job!

tim maguire said...

RealClearPolitics head to head match ups has Bernie doing better than Hillary against the Republicans in every likely combination. She lost the "electable" argument months ago. She just didn't know it.

Bill R said...

Hillary just needs to explain herself better. She needs to get out more and explain over and over again that when she takes $200,000 per hour from Goldman-Sachs it has nothing to do with any attempts to buy and sell influence. Face it Hillary, the little people, the nothing people , the flyover people are not very bright. Repetition is the key with them.

rehajm said...

Face it Hillary, the little people, the nothing people , the flyover people are not very bright. Repetition is the key with them.

..and speak slower. Like voters are 4 years old. Or a dog.

Or just bark like a dog.

AllenS said...

Doesn't matter. The DNC will give the nomination to Hillary no matter what happens with the polls, primaries, or any other such process nonsense.

Michael K said...

Barking like a dog should scare away the Muslims. Has anyone seen Huma since that ?

Henry said...

Cruz has intellect. He doesn't present himself as an intellectual.

Karen of Texas said...

"...character like Cruz." Character? Interesting word choice.

Michael McClain said...

The phrase "Hillary barking like a dog" conjures up an image that I really don't want in my mind.

rehajm said...

Trump also has more from those who don't than those who do, but Trump doesn't try to present himself as the thinking-man's/woman's candidate.

Remember when no matter how undeserved Democrats would portray their candidate as the 'intellectual'? Until Mitt. Never really worked for the D's I suppose.

Hagar said...

Trump is the awfullest [intentional] public spectacle, but as long as he does not switch parties and run as a Democrat, the non-GS office holders will be obliged to resign, and there will be a turnover in the bureaucracies.

Basil said...

Professor, so U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, former clerk of the U.S. Supreme Court, former Solicitor General of Texas and Ivy League University and Law School, is a "character"? DO I detect some serious career envy here? How about an apology to the Senator for the unkind words, which contributes to an atmosphere of personal attack politics?


Crickets......

tim in vermont said...

Heard from a Florida Democrat who would vote for Bush in the general. "FDR was a socialist!"

I didn't bother pointing out that FDR was more of a fascist. Hey, at that time, it seemed like a more humane alternative to Soviet Communism.

tim in vermont said...

Comments like Basil's are why I call Cruz Teddy Haskell

Meade said...

They are all characters. Hillary, Bernie, Ted, Jeb. Name me one who isn't.

Ann Althouse said...

Name me someone who isn't a parasite, and I'll go out and say a prayer for him.

tim in vermont said...

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) responded to a man who shouted "waterboard Hillary!" at a presidential campaign event Tuesday by appearing to jokingly suggest that he didn´t hear what was said and laughing off the remark.

There has to be some equivalent of "use-mention" to describe an attack on a a politician for failing to rebuke an overzealous or unsophisticated supporter.

Also this guy should teach the rest of us how he knows what Rubio did and didn't hear among shouts from the crowd. This kind of ability to read minds is world changing and he owes it to the rest of us to explain how he did it!

tim in vermont said...

An actual reporter interested in accuracy might have written Rubio was in a crowd where a man shouted "waterboard Hillary" and Rubio said that he didn't hear him and laughed it off.

It's amazing how quickly reporters come to the defense of damsel in distress Hillary. I guess it is the "cruel neutrality" of the Wa Po!

mtrobertslaw said...

It may have been true a long ,long time ago that college graduates might be considered to be intellectuals, but that is hardly the case today. The guy in charge of dairy products at my local grocery store has a far deeper understanding of today's political environment than 95% of the college graduates I deal with every day.

Meade said...

"The guy in charge of dairy products at my local grocery store has a far deeper understanding of today's political environment than 95% of the college graduates I deal with every day."

But of course. He graduated from the School of Hard Cheese.

Hunter said...

67% of Rubio supporters say they might change their vote before the primary, vs. 38% for Cruz and 33% for Trump. Rubio is on quicksand. Too bad. If this was either of the last two elections, he'd be a great candidate.

The support for Trump crossing all ideological categories, and trending stronger toward self-described moderate/liberal Republicans bodes well for his appeal across party lines. No real surprise there, except progs are still in denial about it.

Paul said...

"The support for Trump crossing all ideological categories, and trending stronger toward self-described moderate/liberal Republicans bodes well for his appeal across party lines. No real surprise there, except progs are still in denial about it."

Not nearly as much so as the bow tie and tassel crowd. They make progs seem almost well balanced.

Rick said...

tim maguire said...
RealClearPolitics head to head match ups has Bernie doing better than Hillary against the Republicans in every likely combination.


This doesn't matter. Sanders' weaknesses are essentially unknown to the public, nor will they come out until the general since they attract the hard left Dem primary voters. This is a man who honeymooned in the actual Soviet Union, not the former Soviet Union. Expressing support for a government which looted the country for the benefit of a small cadre of leaders is a strange position for someone who claims to be against the 1%, and people understand revealed preference.

Most people understand socialism is about empowering government employees at the expense of everyone else. The middle of the country isn't going to go for it.

mccullough said...

Cruz has no charm and oozes sleaze. He's the GOP version of Hillary.

Trump has been drinking his milkshake. He's defined Cruz as a jerk and liar from Canada. Cruz thinks he's arguing in front of a federal appellate court or a Princeton debate. It's a campaign. He might be a good appellate lawyer but he's a terrible candidate. He s going to spend the next 20 years being a blowhard senator who no one listens to.

Saint Croix said...

I do not think the truther fuckwit, running on his platform of Hate and Anger, will ever get 50% of any election, ever.

Whether or not he gets enough delegates depends on the delusion levels of Jeb Bush, which seem pretty high. The quicker Jeb concedes, the stronger Rubio gets. In fact the quicker anybody concedes, the stronger Rubio gets, because Rubio is the second choice of most Republican voters. Most people like Rubio, which isn't surprising as he's one of the few aspirational candidates in this race.

Saint Croix said...

Code Pink Praises Donald Trump.

Saint Croix said...

Maybe Donnie can put pink ribbons in his hair.

Putin would love that!

And you can invite Hillary to the wedding. Again!

Sammy Finkelman said...

Quinnipiac University Poll,

The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls to a 2-1 lead among Republican voters nationwide, with 39 percent, his highest total so far

This is not truly a 2-1 lead.

It's close to a 2-1 lead against him.

That poll was taken over six days (Wednesday February 10 through Monday February 15)
Trump probably lost 1/4 of his support after the Saturday February 13, night debate, when he echoed stuff that Code Pink had said about George W. Bush.

So let's drop Trump back to 30% (which is still awfully high) or, let's assume 1/3 of the people were asked later - to 33%.

Could the dropouts be having an effect? The previous poll (released Feb 5) would have had Christie and Carly Fiorina and maybe even Rand Paul. Or does this reflect more people deciding they would not vote in the Democratic primary? (in many states, this is open)

Paul said...

I live in California. I'm watching the USA being transformed into a third world shithole. Far enough down this road and there will be a irreversible Socialist Democrat majority voting in the worst political class imaginable. In perpetuity.

Of course Saddam had WMD. Of course 911 wasn't Bush's fault. But if we don't solve the immigration problem it's all over. Priorities man.

Sammy Finkelman said...

tim maguire said...2/17/16, 7:16 AM

RealClearPolitics head to head match ups has Bernie doing better than Hillary against the Republicans in every likely combination.

But that is discounted, because a lot of people are not aware of where Bernie Sanders stands on the political spectrum, and they might be so inclined to vote for him later.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Bill R said...2/17/16, 7:22 AM

Hillary just needs to explain herself better. She needs to get out more and explain over and over again that when she takes $200,000 per hour from Goldman-Sachs it has nothing to do with any attempts to buy and sell influence.

It was a much more complex trade.

Saint Croix said...

If the 2016 presidential race ends up the Battle of the Babies, Bernie vs. Donnie, also known as the War of the Spit, the big question in my mind is...

who does Hillary endorse?

Sammy Finkelman said...

Hunter said...2/17/16, 8:55 AM

67% of Rubio supporters say they might change their vote before the primary,

To Bush or Kasich, much more than to Cruz or Trump, whose voters are less torn between two or more alternatives.

Saint Croix said...

And it's eye-opening to me how many Republicans aren't actually Republicans. They just like the fighting and picking a side. The actual beliefs of the candidate? Doesn't really matter.

Donnie is like one of those professional wrestlers who switches sides because it's fun to switch sides. He's Ric Flair, except his hair is a lot worse.

Paul said...

Hey Sammy keep whistling past the graveyard. You guys have been predicting Trump's imminent demise again and again. Like a dog returning to his vomit. Do you retain enough of a vestige of rationality to grasp that with each failed prediction your credibility is further eroded? You guys are so emotionally driven by your hatred that you just can't think. Just like the average lefty

Sammy Finkelman said...

Saint Croix said...2/17/16, 11:15 AM

If the 2016 presidential race ends up the Battle of the Babies, Bernie vs. Donnie, also known as the War of the Spit, the big question in my mind is...

who does Hillary endorse?


Bernie, hoping Donnie wins, so she can run in 2020. Or at least that Bloomberg wins.

Did you notice:

Donald Rumsfeld: Native born New Yorker.

Bernie Sanders: Ex-New Yorker, with some feelings for Brooklyn (he wants adebate held there)

Hillary Clinton: New York carpetbagger and settler in Westchester.

Michael Bloomberg: New Yorker by choice (grew up in Boston)

Sammy Finkelman said...

Paul said...2/17/16, 11:19 AM

Hey Sammy keep whistling past the graveyard. You guys have been predicting Trump's imminent demise again and again.

Well, I haven't. I just thought he had a ceiling of about 35%, (in Republican primaries) and this poll shows him a bit higher. Trump reached 20% with his immigration policy and toward 30% with his "keep-Muslims-out-of-the-United-States" proposal after San Bernardino. He hasn't had anything else since to jump his numbers.

I also thought, that if he keeps his opposition divided, he could get the noination with about 30% of the primary vote - because he might get 43% or more of the delegates.

I also thought Cruz is going to fall. There's no reason for Cruz to get these huge percetages - into the 20s, not if Donald Trump is also getting that.

I also thought, contrary to what happened in the Democratic Party in 1976 with Jimmy Carterf and in 2992 with Bill Clinton, that if he ends the primary season with something like 35% to 40% of the delegates, he will NOT get the nomination.

That was partically based on Cruz not getting too many delegates. Now it looks like Cruz could get more, but Trump also is getting close to burning his bridges with Cruz - except that Trump can be friendly with him again. I don't know that they are natural allies - probably not.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Saint Croix said...2/17/16, 11:19 AM

Donnie is like one of those professional wrestlers who switches sides because it's fun to switch sides.

He's like a professional wrestler?

Among his other incarnations, he is character in professional wrestling.

http://www.wwe.com/videos/playlists/donald-trump-greatest-wwe-moments

http://prowrestling.wikia.com/wiki/Donald_Trump

Trump was inducted into the celebrity wing of the WWE Hall of Fame in 2013 at Madison Square Garden due to his contributions to the promotion. He made his fifth Wrestlemania appearance the next night.

Saint Croix said...

Yes, Sammy, I have noticed that all of the Satans in this race are from New York.

But we have demagogues down here too!

Here is a Ric Flair highlight reel for upscale people who are not used to professional wrestling.

eric said...

Blogger Saint Croix said...
I do not think the truther fuckwit, running on his platform of Hate and Anger, will ever get 50% of any election, ever.

Whether or not he gets enough delegates depends on the delusion levels of Jeb Bush, which seem pretty high. The quicker Jeb concedes, the stronger Rubio gets. In fact the quicker anybody concedes, the stronger Rubio gets, because Rubio is the second choice of most Republican voters. Most people like Rubio, which isn't surprising as he's one of the few aspirational candidates in this race.


The longer Rubio stays in the better things get for Trump.

At this point, the only way to defeat Trump is for everyone to consolidate behind one not Trump candidate. And since Cruz has a lot of money and solid organization, he won't be going anywhere for awhile.

Which makes him the likely candidate.

And since Rubio won't be dropping out and backing Cruz, Trump wins.

damikesc said...

Among his other incarnations, he is character in professional wrestling.

Not...really.

He is always Trump on TV. Vince just has a man-crush on him and lets him make Vince look bad on TV and (in their most profitable show ever) have his "guy" win a match leading to Vince shaving his head.

Two of the WM he appeared at he also hosted at Trump Plaza.

damikesc said...

This doesn't matter. Sanders' weaknesses are essentially unknown to the public, nor will they come out until the general since they attract the hard left Dem primary voters. This is a man who honeymooned in the actual Soviet Union, not the former Soviet Union. Expressing support for a government which looted the country for the benefit of a small cadre of leaders is a strange position for someone who claims to be against the 1%, and people understand revealed preference.

He's also a bum who was unable to hold a job until he got into government in his 40's.

Paul said...

"He's also a bum who was unable to hold a job until he got into government in his 40's."

True role model for your average democrat. The fact that he's a commie lover is just icing on the cake.